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U.S. president Trump's statement calling for a list of goods for tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods leaves China without a clear response and facing new risks. The U.S. exports about $150 billion in goods to China so that China would have to impose penalties to respond at the same level. Placing restrictions on American firms on access to China's market, and imposing other penalties would have the effect of reinforcing the perception of unfair practices targeting American business and lead to hardening of U.S. response.  The U.S. sees itself as being in a better position with the U.S. economy experiencing a growth trend. China with large local government and bank debt faces a difficult situation. President Jinping's policy of reducing the risks of bad debt in the banking system involved sacrificing some growth to stabilize the system. China's GDP growth in 2017 was 6.9%, the target at 6.5%. Future targets and actual growth now look to be much lower.The trade war with the U.S. has the effect of dampening growth leading to calls for the central bank to loosen its monetary stance. In response to Trump's announcement the People's Bank of China pumped $31 billion into the nation's banks. China is studying Japan's response in the 1980's and 1990's when the U.S. took strong action against Japan's growing trade surplus. Japan responded by appreciating its currency and using stimulus to cushion the effect of lower exports on the economy. The stimulus led to the housing bubble and over time a period of low growth and stagnant economy. The large China stimulus in 2008-2009 has compounded the problems in the banking system. Not deleveraging and controlling financial risks in China's banking system because of the trade war would bring a new set of risks. ...

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Heidi Vogt provides this exceptional account on the U.S. and international efort to build Liberia's healthcare system from scratch. Years of civil war till 2003 and the shortage of funds mean that even basic equipment such as X ray machines and blood testing equipment are lacking in Liberian hospitals. Even with a effort that includes the U.S. Army and Air Force planes, a 25 bed hospital for healthcare workers using tents will take till early November to be operational. Showing that the response is sorely inadequate here in Liberia leading to the spread of Ebola to Europe and the U.S. by December at the current pace. Liberia's head of Ebola control says the international community has failed Liberia with its inadequate response. For the U.S. and Europe an inadequate response creates new dangers as the public has lost confidence in government response.

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The Basque country in Spain's Mondragon Corporation and its Eroski hypermarket, other businesses, make a large part of the Basque economy. The Guardian looks at the positive way it looks after its workers who have ownership in the company.

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There are about 2.4 million workers on American farms. 44% of them are undocumented workers says the Department of Labor.  They do jobs such as picking the fruits and vegetables that are part of the food supply. Deporting them all will increase prices of farm products as harvesting fruits and vegetables will be difficult. During the Eisenhower administration in 1953 deportation plan large growers in California and New Mexico used seasonal agricultural labor from Mexico, and the nation's food supply of vegetables and fruits depended on these workers. These companies lobbied hard for ways to keep these workers. On the other side were smaller farm owners who used fewer migrant workers. The complication this time 2024 is that unlike in 1953 under Eisenhower mass deportation when the border was otherwise peaceful, in 2024 the US has faced a decade unprecedented in its history of flows of fentanyl and drugs across the southern border. The deportation is about migrants who are not easily integrated culturally into the US, about the dangers of illegal entry in such large numbers that it disturbs the quiet life of the small towns and cities in the US. The US needs immigrants but in a planned way with legal entry, and no flows of drugs across the Border, that protects the American people and serves America's interests.    ...

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Adjusted for the 35,000 workers on strike at Verizon counted as unemployed, the 38,000 jobs figure in the government report is still considered quite low. Especially striking even as unemployment drops for May from 5.0% to 4.7% is that the drop is attributed to people dropping out of the work force. The average monthly gain for the March through May is 116,000 jobs well short of the 240,000 jobs added on average in 2014-2015. Average hourly earnings were up 0.2% in May and up 2.5% for the year. A widely accepted measure of unemployment that includes workers too discouraged to look for work or working part time because of a lack of full time job was at 9.7%. The labor force participation rate was at 62.6%.

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Australian tennis player is herself as she retires at the age of 25. She is champion at Wimbledon and at the Australian Open. "The time is right for me to step away and chase other dreams and to put the racquets down," says Barty.

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Experts see strong growth in jobs in 2022. Employers added 431,000 jobs in March. This is the 11th straight month of job gains of over 400,000, the longest period of such growth since 1939. The unemployment rate fell to 3.6%, approaching the low unemployment rate of 3.5% in February 2020, just before the pandemic.

Low unemployment rate is boosting wages but not as much to keep up with inflation. The easing pandemic is also encouraging people to seek jobs. Many retirees are also coming back, and so are women. With 300,000 women joining the workforce in March 2022.

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 Lincoln's words in 1858 "political matters now bear a very mixed and incongruous aspect" as Douglas tried to be on the side of the free states in the North when he was actually with the South, can be used for what is happening now with DJT and Ukraine, as seen from Europe by European leaders.  Alain Frachon gives the French view in Le Monde. He cites the founder of the French Institute for International Relations Montbrial in his recent book that the problems started with the false hopes and chimeras about the fall of the Berlin Wall. It marked not just the fall of the Soviet Empire in Eastern Europe but also of the Russian Empire. And the fall of an Empire has repercussions that are being felt today. Franchon says the liberal order neglected to see in its naivette that peoples are driven not just by strategic and economic interests alone but by passions, that includes their sense of what they had lost in the Russian role in that past of Europe in history. ...

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Heating costs have risen in northern China as it is hit by record low temperatures, even as the European Union proves resilient says this report in WSJ.

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Budget cuts leading to cutting of gym classes in American schools.

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This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

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Insurance premium rise 2022-2025 is costly for employee wages with employers slow to increase wages when so much money is going into healthcare premiums for their employees. Each year employee premiums in the US have increased by 7% for the last 3 years. $27000 is the cost of health insurance premium for American family in 2025 which is exorbitant and shows a breakdown in the health system that is affecting the cost of living, the wages of workers, and the money left in the economy for other essential needs.

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The London based Financial Times says of Nathan Anderson and his NY city based firm Hindenburg short seller's allegations on the Adani Group- that the allegations may indeed prove baseless. Yet it says India's regulators should engage with this issue for the sake of transparency and integrity, to demonstrate the "quality of its governance and the strength of its institutions." Particularly as the US and Europe see India as an alternative to China for the supply chain.

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China's proposed ban on export of solar manufacturing technology is likely to slow US progress in solar energy installation.

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Pope Francis and Cardinal Parolin have an intimate knowledge of the situation in Latin America and Cuba. This made it possible for the Vatican to host the meeting of the U.S. and Cuban sides in October, to set the stage for the restoration of diplomatic relations in Dec. 2014.

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account summarizing the reasoning in the minds of Argentine negotiators and holdout bondholders over a debt dispute remaining from the 2001 Argentine debt crisis and default. Over a decade later the repercussions of Argentina's 2001 debt crisis and default are still taking new twists ant turns. Holdout bondholders won in U.S. courts and Judge Griesa ordered Argentina to make full payment demanded by holdout bondholders. Argentina responded by depositing $539 million in Bank of New York Mellon as instalment payment to exchange bondholders. Judge Griesa responded by ruling that if Bank of New York Mellon made the payment it would be in contempt of court. Griesa also called for court mediated negotiations between Argentina and the holdout bondholders to come up with an agreement. Argentina and hedge fund holdouts negotiated in July 2014 but talks faltered. Legal experts say that if Argentina makes an agreement with holdout bondholders led by NML Capital which is asking for $1.5 billion, the risk is that the exchange bondholders could also ask for better terms. After the 2001 crisis following which Argentina defaulted on its debt, agreements were reached for bondholders to be paid about 25 cents on the dollar. Not all bondholders agreed, the bondholders who agreed are called the exhange bondholders, and the ones holding out holdout bondholders. From the Argentine government's point of view the risk of reaching agreement with the holdouts suing Argentina is that the other holdout bondholders not represented in the lawsuit could also ask for the same terms, and Argentina would have to pay all the holdouts costing it $15 billion. Risks if Argentina allows it to go into default are that exchange bondholders would come together to pressure the Argentine government to make a full payment of their discounted bonds quickly. This would cost Argentina payment of as much as $28.7 billion, according to JPMorgan estimates, under the right to "accelerate" payment if Argentina is considered as having missed a July 30, 2014 payment deadline. Legal experts say Argentina has to weigh this risk, which may or may not occur depending on the exchange bondholders taking such action, against the risk of having to pay out $15 billion to all the holdouts. Paying all holdouts would be politically very unpopular in Argentina, posing political risks for the socialist Peronist Kirchner government, already facing difficulties with the trade unions and the stronger opposition from centrist parties in Buenos Aires province. Default would affect Argentine access to capital markets, which is already highly restricted. Yet because Argentina has made the payment to Bank of New York Mellon, blocked by Judge Griesa, the nature of this default would be different. A worse case scenario for Argentina's Kirchner government is reopening negotiations with exchange bondholders for higher payment on debt than the 25 cents on the dollar already agreed to. Argentina faces an acute cash shortage with international reserves of only about $29.5 billion in May 2014, and a slowing agricultural export dependent economy. This is why the prospect of a technical default is being treated with relative calm in Buenos Aires....

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Questions raised by analysts at the Peterson Institute for International Economics and the European Policy Center in Brussels, about the lack of leadership from Chancellor Merkel of Germany and EU leaders in addressing swiftly the crisis facing Greece and countries in southern Europe. Facing voter displeasure in Germany Merkel stalled in the hope of delaying adecision till after a regional election in Germay on May 9. In the process Merkel turned a smaller crisis in Greece into a crisis facing many countries in Europe including Spain, Portugal and Italy, and a crisis for the euro currency. French member of Parliament Juvin, told the French press: "are they waiting for the collapse of the euro?" One sticking point is that the Lisbon Treaty has no provisions for coordinating fiscal policies, and Germany did not insist earlier on oversight of Greek statistics which were generally known to be false since the 1990's. Another French member of the European Parliament, Le Grip, insisted on the need for a new European economic government, and the creation of new institutional responsibilites. The problem lies in the feeling in countries like Germany not to cede sovereignty on economic matters to a European economic body. ...

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Pipelines to Corpus Christi have reached capacity as US energy production reaches record levels says this report in WSJ. In the first half of 2023 2 million barrels a day passed through this pipeline. About half of the 4.1 million barrels a day the US shipped abroad were loaded onto tankers on this part of the Texas coastline. This oil helped Europe during the shortages after the closing of access to Russian oil supplies. Because Corpus Christi has terminals that make it cheaper to ship oil out it has become a dominant hub in the US for shipments overseas. It is the closest deepwater port to the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Corpus Christ is also transitioning to a future where hydrogen is produced for energy by applying for $8 billion from president Biden's renewable energy infrastructure package.

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With a divided Congress the US will not be able to implement the minimum tax negotiated by the Biden administration with other countries. Now the global minimum tax is moving ahead. The OECD spelled out how the minimum tax implemented in the European Union, UK and South Korea will interact with the US tax system. Under the minimum tax system negotiated by Janet Yellen of the US nations agreed to adopt the 15% tax on their home country companies. France for example would require a French company to pay at least 15% on its operations in the UK, US, or anywhere else.

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Bernie Sanders with 46% of the delegates, 13.4 million votes, 22 states, and many of the young people in the U.S. behind him, told a news reporter at his home in the final sprint two weeks before the election- he plans to see the major planks of the Democratic platform implemented. He said Clinton is progressive on a number of issues, but the platform is more progressive with upward mobility a critical concern. Sanders played a critical role in shaping the platform. He says he opposes someone from Wall Street in positions of Treasury Secretary, Trade Representative, and will make known his views who would be best in these positions, including Attorney General. Sanders is supported in the Senate by Senators Sherrod Brown, Jeff Merkley, and Elizabeth Warren. Warren has campaigned with Hillary Clinton in New Hampshire, and both support minimum wage, women's rights. WIth a win for Democrats in the Senate Sanders will become either the chairman of the Budget Committee, or with his preference chairman of the Health, Education, Labor and Pensions Committee. His main goal now is to see key economic Cabinet positions that affect upward mobility, intergenerational mobility, which is damaged today for the middle and working class, go to persons who would do the most to improve it.  ...

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Following president Trump's decision to increase tariffs on $200 billion of Chinese goods on May 9, 2019, the WSJ looks at the mistakes made by both sides in misjudging each other's negotiating position. Mr. Trump says he is willing to increase the pressure on China by imposing tariffs on all Chinese imports into the U.S. after what he sees as China reneging on its commitments on trade by deleting key sections on enforcement provisions and Chinese legislation for enforcement to take place in the 150 page agreement prepared for both presidents to sign.  Early on in the negotiations between Liu He and Mr. Lighthizer, China misread the thinking on the U.S. side. Chinese thinking was that president Trump's urging for the Federal Reserve to lower rates was a perception sign of the weakening U.S. economy. It also may have misread the extent to which Mr. Trump trusts Mr. Robert Lighthizer, who Mr. Trump respects for winning a good deal with the Japanese in similar situation of Japanese rejection of U.S. demands. Mr. Trump also thinks the U.S. has a strong economy, is the largest world producer of oil, strong economic growth in the last quarter of 2018, is also negotiating better deals with other countries including the ones with Mexico, Canada and South Korea. It is also much less dependent on exports to China, giving it a stronger position with more experienced negotiators. China has whole sectors of its economy dependent on exports to the U.S., and crucial numbers of jobs at stake.  China also misread the signals from its stronger than expected economic growth from stimulus efforts in the last quarter, leading to it staking out a tougher position than the U.S. would accept. The U.S. position was set after decades of waiting for China to change and was unlikely to be affected by any temporary considerations.  As a result the U.S. not anticipating the Chinese response of deleting key sections agreed to in advance from the 150 page written agreement gave a strong response. Mr. Mnuchin who accompanied Lighthizer in talks says Mr. Lighthizer "read them the riot act" to the Chinese side. For the Chinese side the effort now shifted to continuing good faith talks without appearing to back down. ...