LyrArc Article Gist
The comparison by Goldsmith and Moyn has picked the wrong Roosevelt. Only Washington in the war of independence, Lincoln in the Civil War over slavery, and FDR Franklin Delano Roosevelt in the Great Depression and economic collapse, fall in that category and there is no one and nothing to compare with both the struggles they fought and the challenge to the survival of the US. On the next scale comes TR Teddy Roosevelt, and this is the Roosevelt to compare DJT with. TR was unconventional, TR spoke a different language and could be frank and outspoken. TR actions matched his words, as his days on the Indian frontier and with the Rough Riders. TR also had one term plus completing McKinley's term after his assasination. And TR like DJT did not like his successor and did everything to make the comeback denouncing the policies of his successor William Howard Taft in the 1912 election, which TR lost to Democrat Woodrow Wilson. All this is true for DJT in 2026. TR denounced the shift away from his "progressive policies" and the shift to corporate interests of Republican Taft. In this sense also DJT is similar as he denounced the shift to corporate interests of the Bush/Clinton/Bush/Obama years. TR was no country club Republican and was willing to confront opponents in the politics to fight for the benefit of the working man, splitting the Republican party in the process. This is true of DJT. TR launched the rebuilding of the Navy, and announced he would reassert the Monroe Doctrine. DJT is doing the same and is reasserting the Monroe Doctrine. One could say that DJT feels the hidden TR in him and like Teddy Roosevelt is putting America in the place it once was. For TR the industrial revolution had distorted a country founded on the backs of settlers owning the land independent and rugged, as industry turned the country into corporate interests and workers in factories with few rights, and poor working conditions and wages. This TR even as a Republican fought to reverse. In DJT there is the Republican also of a different mould who fights to reverse the situation created by Bush/Clinton/Bush/ Obama over three decades since the 1990's when America has fallen to new lows when drug trafficking gangs in Mexico and Venezuela are able to run rampant over the western hemisphere, when elites in Canada and the US act impotent in the face of this, or living in their own world away from the streets and neighborhoods of America devastated by drug trafficking, towns and neighborhoods from Janesville to Flint economically deprived as elites shifted manufacturing overseas to China in complete indifference to the American worker and his family, and carried out wars in remote parts of the world such as hills of Afghanistan and deserts of Iraq no worker or farmer in America had even heard of or cared about since the American continent was settled in 1600. If there is a Woodrow Wilson around the corner who won in 1912, for the 2028 election, then it is someone who like Wilson will take policies to benefit the American worker and farmer and his family, and America as a Nation to a better place over the next decade. A passage from Teddy Roosevelt from his Autobiography about who TR was struggling against illustrates this point- "They favored Civil Service Reform; they favored copyright laws, and the removal of tariffs on works of art; they favored all the proper (and even more strongly the improper ) movements for international peace and arbitration; in short, they favored all good and many goody-goody, measures so long as they did not cut deep into social wrong or make demands on National and individual virility. They opposed, or were lukewarm, about efforts to build up the army and the navy, for they were not sensitive regarding National honor, and above all they opposed every non-milk-and-water effort, however sane to change our social and economic system in such a fashion as to substitute the ideal of justice towards all for the ideal of kindly charity from the favored few to the possibly grateful many." (Theodore Roosevelt, Autobiography, Chapter 5 title: Applied Idealism, 1913) ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mitt Romney states the case for supporting free trade both in principles and practice. Acceptance of the staus quo allows China to game the world trading system, says Romney. In the end accepting the status quo may do more damage to the world's trading system than any efforts to correct the misalignment in currencies and failure to rebalance the world economy. He questions the passive approach of some members of Congress and the Obama administration on the grounds that starting a trade war makes them nervous. China with $273 billion more in exports than imports to the U.S. has reason to see this issue objectively, even with all the noise it is making about trade retaliation, suggests Romney. Other experts have pointed to the problems the misalignment creates for China's economy. A New York Times editorial on October 15, 2011, cites figures from the Peterson Institute of Economics showing this costs China $240 billion a year through trade surpluses in dollars that are declining in value. For years China's fears are that this would lead to higher unemployment. This New York Times editorial points out that jobs have increased by about 1% a year since 2004, even with 10%+growth, because many of the manufacturing jobs use advanced manufacturing technologies. A firm response today also makes it possible to avoid the kind of sudden response that could take place later on if public opinion overwhelmingly shifts away from trade with China under status quo conditions. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
This WSJ report looks at how China is run today with attention to details by president Xi Jinping. Mr. Jinping takes interest in all matters that relate to wellbeing, reducing gaps in wealth and privilege, coronavirus pandemic, corrupt businessmen or officials, climate change, and the economy. Some decisions have to be reversed after they appear not to be working. In some situations goals conflict such as climate change action on coal requiring shutting down intensive coal dependent factories, and economy jobs goals requiring use of coal intensive factories. Leading to a complete reversal of the original decision to cut back on use of coal as happened in 2021 when factory shutdowns affected the economy.  Jinping does not see it as micromanagement. Previous leaders such as Hu Jintao had little interest and did not put in the effort to seek out areas where policies were not working for families and workers, delegating this to lower level officials. Jinping's style is hands-on and energetic to act on issues that affect how China should be run so that the quality of life of ordinary Chinese is improved. Jinping says that if he did not take action there just is'nt the level of initiative on the part of local officials. Many officials are not competent to tackle complicated issues. Jinping says that "some officials only act when the central party leadership has instructed them to do so." And that he acts as a last resort- "I issue instructions as a last line of defense." His willingness to reverse decisions or let them be implemented with local officials using their discretion if he thinks that would be wise also shows a level of flexibility and humility. Basic to his decisions is a general idea that the original vision of China of the founding leaders in 1948 was forgotten in the headlong rush to modernization of the last 20 years. This means a balance was needed to restore some measure of equality and empowering of the disadvantaged. Xi Jinping's father was one of these founding leaders under Mao and under premier Deng during the market economy founding in the 1990's. Xi Zhongxun, Jinping's father was an energetic leader who also took a keen interest on a whole range of issues for China's modernization drive, a trait now found in Mr. Jinping. The first market economy experiment was done under Xi Zhongxun with premier Deng's encouragement. Xi Zhongxun set up the Guangdong and Shenzen special economic zone in 1979, as governor of the province in an effort to liberalize the economy and slow the exodus to Hong Kong. At the time wages in Shenzen were 1/100 of wages in Hong Kong. Some of this style can be seen in India with Mr. Narendra Modi delving into details of policy and taking intitatives that local officials had neglected to do on a whole range of issues related to modernization, development and technological progress. One of the decisions made by Jinping was to tackle Covid aggressively with a zero Covid policy, which means frequent lockdowns and restrictions even with a few cases. Mr. Modi has also acted vigorously on Covid after warning in March 2020 that this could set India 20 years back, with a policy to get over a billion people fully vaccinated. In both situations the only two countries with over 1 billion population needed this kind of strong leadership with an interest in a whole range of issues that relate to lives of ordinary people during the pandemic to inspire some essential level of public confidence and build public wellbeing.     ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The 3 week old government in Italy, led by former EU commissioner, Mario Monti, announced a three year plan of 30 billion euros in tax increases, spending cuts, reform of pension plans, and efforts to boost growth. Monti said at a news conference that "Italians are to blame for our public debt, and we risk compormising everything we've accomplished in the past 60 years." Under the new plan retirement age for women in the private sector would be increased from 60 to 66 years by 2018, bringing it in line with retirement ages for men. Italy's Labor minister, Elsa Fornero, broke down in tears as she described the change, saying it was necessary to avoid "collective impoverishment." Italy faces the difficult task of refinancing $400 billion in short term debt coming up for renewal in 2012, just as bond yields for Italy have spiked to over 7%. Because Italy lacks an extensive day care system, women helped raise grandchildren after early retirement at age 60. Other changes were to impose a 1.5% one time tax on money repatriated back to Italy under a tax amnesty scheme setup by former premier Berlusconi. Action was taken against widespread tax evasion by banning cash payments above 1000 euros. Stimulus measures of 10 billion euros are designed to boost small business and reduce high youth unemployment running at 29%. Companies get tax breaks of 2 billion euros if they hire young people....

LyrArc Article Gist
Chozick and Parker of the NYT show how Donald Trump's frequent sexist comments on women and references to Hillary Clinton in similiar terms are likely to influence the outcome of the general election of 2016. The women's vote has played a significant part in the recent elections of 2008 and 2012 helping Democratic candidate Obama. Trump has a astonishingly high disapproval rating with women, unprecedented in U.S. election history, cited by the WSJ as 75%. Cruz's choice of Carly Fiorina as a running mate shows an awareness of the importance of the women's vote. Some of the comments cited here include the Trump comment that "if Hillary Clinton were a man, I don't think she would get 5% of the vote." It is not clear if this will help the Republican party, as such comments could alienate the mass base of women voters, including the base of young women voters who supported Sanders, women who are independents and moderate Republican women. Hillary Clinton is carefully planning a fall campaign in which such Trump attacks are expected, and the response will be handled not directly by Hillary but by Super PAC's, as Hillary sticks to calling them sexist and energizing her base from the attacks. CBS polls show Trump has the support of 39 percent of white women, compared to 50% for Hillary Clinton. Trump's attacks on women are strangely enough targeted at getting the support of white women- and men - in another wild twist of the 2016 campaign....

LyrArc Article Gist
Zaraska says a vegetarian diet or one that includes vegetarian diet in meals is a good idea to reduce the risk of heart disease, obesity, diabetes and other medical problems. Be sure to add zinc, iron and calcium, Vitamin B12 to the diet if you are older she points out, to compensate for the change. About 2.5 million Americans over the age of 55 are vegetarian according to a 2012 Harris poll done for the Vegetarian Resource Group. There is a common perception of vegetarianism as purely vegetable type foods. However vegetarianism in India is practiced with the inclusion of all dairy products- milk, yogurt, and buttermilk. Not only are they included, they play a significant role in the diet. Also included and playing a large role in the diet are lentils and beans which provide a significant source of protein. When the idea of vegetarianism is broadened to a more normal vegetarianism as practiced in countries like India and includes dairy, lentils and beans, the diet is able to provide most of the nutrients needed. By including this kind of vegetarian food as an integral part of the diet and reducing meat is another way the health needs of Americans facing a high rate of obesity and other medical problems can be met. If insurance companies were to give incentives for increased consumption of these vegetarian foods and lowered consumption of meat, and the public was made aware of its benefits through advertising, the cost of health care in the U.S. could be brought down....

LyrArc Article Gist
In an essay published on March 16, 2012, in Seeking Truth, the Communist party's main ideological publication, Xi Jinping cited the importance of consensus decisionmaking in the Chinese leadership now and in the future. "All decisions on major undertakings must adhere to the Party's principle of democratic centralism... They can't be decided by an individual or a small group of people... but should be decided according to collective wisdom and strict procedure." The efforts of Bo Xilai, the Communist leader in Chongqing, were seen as "playing to the crowd." By reviving Mao theory and advocating policies which would mean more participation by the state in the economy, Xilai was moving in the opposite direction of a World Bank-DRC Report on the Chinese economy- supported by the next premier Li Keqiang- that calls for less dominantt role of the state owned companies in the economy. Bo Xilai recently resigned as party head in that province. The essay is based on a speech on March 1 by Xi Jinping at the Central Party School, the Communist party's leading think tank. Xi said "if you crave to be ostentatious, to play to the crowd, and seek personal gains and high office, and if you don't aim for higher goals, it is not only difficult to push forward the work of the Party and the people, but also damages the Party's image, lets people down, and makes them lose faith in us." This sets the tone for consensus leadership in China, based on collective wisdom and careful thinking, into the next generation....

LyrArc Article Gist
Arguments that are expected to be used by both sides before the U.S. Supreme Court on the health care law. At the heart of this is the 1942 decision, Wickard v. Filburn, on the limits of federal power. Mr. Filburn, was an Ohio farmer who questioned a 1938 federal law that imposed a penalty on every extra bushel of wheat on his farm beyond the stipulated amount. The decision was unanimous and went against Filburn. At issue is whether the federal government can impose a penalty on individuals for not buying health insurance. Justice Robert Jackson wrote in that case: "Even if appellee's activity be local, and though it may not be regarded as commerce, it may still, whatever its nature, be reached by Congress, if it exerts a substantial economic effect on commerce." The Obama administration's argument in its brief is that the decision of individuals not to buy insurance, like that of Filburn to plant that extra bushel, has larger effects beyond the local one and serious consequences for the whole country- it raises insurance rates of people in states across the country and makes hospitals bear the burden of caring for these uninsured people. For over 50 years the Supreme Court has largely supported the idea behind the Filburn decision, except in 1995 and 2000- these two decision invalidated laws made about guns near schools and violence against women. The Court ruled that the activities were local and noncommercial and beyond the federal power to regulate interstate commerce....

LyrArc Article Gist
India has 2.3 million of the 9 million tuberculosis (TB) cases reported annually. About 100,000 of these are drug resistant strains. Existing treatment methods do not work for drug resistant cases, actually exacerbating the conditions as the strains thrive if the antibiotics fail. Cases of drug resistant TB are reported in Mumbai, Bangalore and New Delhi. Experts say the $236 million India spends on TB treatment and control is not enough to deal with the problem. India lacks the machines that can detect drug resistant TB in 2 hours and patients with drug resistant TB wait for months taking treatments that fail before it is detected. The WHO provides these machines at a cost of $70,000 per machine and each patient test is $16. The first cases were detected in 2006, and India began building labs for this strain in 2008. So far 37 labs have been built treating 5000 patients. The WHO has tried to persuade India to get the diagnostic machines since 2010, which can do the work of detection for drug resistant strains much faster. These machines are in pilot programs and India will buy more if they work says Dr Kumar, head of India's TB program. Doctors at Hinduja Hospital in Bombay, including Dr. Udwadia, are not convinced and see the efforts as slow and bureaucratic. Dr Kumar says the government has focussed on regular TB which only costs $9 or 500 rupees to treat and cure compared to the $1800 or 100,000 rupees it takes to treat drug resistant TB....

LyrArc Article Gist
The recent effort to eliminate funding for Planned Parenthood clinics in the U.S. because some of the money goes to abortions has run into a cloud of misinformation. In reality only 3% of the funding goes to abortions. Title X funds that help support these clinics cannot be used for abortion care at any time. Medicaid funds going to the clinics in 17 states can be used to reimburse abortion providers only if the life of the mother is endangered. The clinics see 5.2 million low income and uninsured women who need tests for infections, breast exams, pap smears, preventive services and screenings, contraception services. By reducing low income women's access to such health services through defunding the clinics would only increase the number of unwanted pregnancies and abortions. Planned Parenthood centers provides contraception to about 2.5 million patients each year and educates women about birth control. By burdening the U.S. healthcare system- adding most of the 5.2 million who access these clinics -with problems ranging from cancer to other serious health issues when they could have been detected by tests at an early stage and treated earlier or prevented altogether, would also add to the burden of healthcare costs. In addition the 800 Planned Parenthood Clinics in the U.S screen 3 million patients each year for other problems such as blood pressure, diabetes, smoking and obesity related issues, also help treat these problems at an earlier stage, which is essential if costs to be brought under control. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Hubbard at Columbia, Scott at Harvard, and Zingales at University of Chicago, go over the options. Bad bank option has the drawback that you have assets that are written down and you put them in a bad bank, but what about all those assets that deteriorate as the economy deteriorates, would'nt they have to be be put in the bad bank too? Banks hold $6 trillion of mortgages and mortgage securities, with mortgage securities of $1.3 trillion. Option two, guaranteeing bad assets has been tried for Citigroup, where taking asset pool of $306 billion which was created, Citigroup absorbed the first $29 billion losses, Treasury and FDIC jointly fund next $15 billion, and Fed holds 90% of remaining losses. The government getting $7 billion in preferred stock with 8% yield. This Citigroup option according to a conservative estimate would cost the government $60 billion after stock warrants received. This would cost for all the banks something like the $700 billion of the TARP, and if bad assets deteriorate further as is likely, could end up costing the government trillions. So this isnt a great option. Hubbard, Scott, and Zogales, say that the option of encouraging banks to spin off toxic assets into separate affiliated bad banks would be a reasonable one. But the government should't guarantee the assets of that bad bank if it poses systemic risk. And banks with negative capital or close to negative capital should be taken over by the government, nationalized, through already established FDIC procedures, such as bridge loans. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Willingness to change opinions as the wind shifts, or as conditions change and new information or insights are gained, is a necessary quality in good leadership. You may not get it right the first time, and that is OK if you are honest with yourself and do the right thing, which is to take stock of the new information and understanding and act upon it, even if that is different from what you said or did before. These skills may be needed by the President in difficult places like Afghanistan and Pakistan, as well as at home in tackling the economy where some actions work and make sense and some others don not work or make sense under the conditions. Or its some new understanding of the conditions that is gained. FDR tried a number of things in his first 100 days in office and he got conflicting advice from some advisors, over time he obtained a better grasp of conditions and an understanding of what actions would be most effective in ending the crisis in the country. He had to be a good learner, be a good observer first hand of conditions, stay in touch with the people, honestly ask himself what would be the best thing to do in each situation. Sometimes he had to chart a new course and he had to know which advisers best represented the interests of the people and the country, and where to look for help. This is described by Adam Cohen of the NYT in his new book "Nothing to Fear". ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Southwest hedged against oil price increases and has hedges through 2009 at $51 a crude oil barrel. This has proved to be a smart move as it has provided Southwest with a hedge worth over $2 billion with most of the hedges value being realized over the next 2 years. Airline fuel costs are substantial and evey dollar increase in the price of crude translates intoa $80 million increase in the fuel bill for American Airlines. The hedges for the first 9 months of 2007 cost Southwest about $42 million, so its surprising that other airlines, United, Delta, American, Jet Blue and Northwest did not hedge against rising prices. Maybe they thought that at prices of $52 at the beginning of this year why hedge if prices go down to $40. Or they were too distracted by looking for merger options, or pricing options or other things. What will happen now if oil prices keep climbing? Can airlines raise fares. Yes but revenue per mile is'nt going up significantly as the mix of seats changes with price increases, more of the lower priced seats are sold than the higher priced ones and revenue per seat has not improved. For example even in an environment where 6 industry fare increases ocurred in the 3rd quarter Southwest average ticket price for that period was $105.37 only 62 cents higher than the previous year. Southwest now hopes to gain in this cycle as the other airlines may scrap some routes or ground some planes and Southwest can expand in those areas. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
To keep prices from taking a nosedive if there is a slowdown, as for example in the Chinese economy, a concentration of resources within 3 or 4 mining companies enable them to slow down development of new deposits to adjust supply with demand. In this case even if China slows, India, Russia and Brazil may still pick up, as they may be less sensitve to the U.S. consumer than China. China is a manufacturing export based economy compared to India and Russia, which are more dependent on internal demand. Iron ore prices have increased by three times since 2003, and China's imports of iron ore have gone up from 29% to half of the world's imports. Prices of all commodities copper, alumina, uranium have shot up. BHP and Rio both based in Melbourne, Australia have absorbed all the medium size companies in the Melbourne mining scene. Australia has traditionally been a leader in this field because of its huge mining resources. Other reasons for consolidation are the more complex technologies needed to develop the remaining deposit finds, which are fewer and fewer and of lesser quality. Another factor is that the resource nationalism in India, Bolivia, Indonesia, Mongolia and other places requires more sophisticated investors. Combining Rio and BHP also means BHP can use the better infrastructure of Rio and invest more productively in future infrastructure rail lines and port development to speed exports to other countries. See the Barta article in the WSJ Link on this on Dec 18, 2007. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Nicholas Kristof says the strategy adopted during the Clinton administration of negotiations with the North and a partial lifting of sanctions worked better than the situation today. One criticism leveled at that agreement was that North Korea cheated and developed uranium weapon technology on the side. Yet says Kristof the situation is worse today. Under the "Agreed Framework" of the Clinton administration North Korea's Kim regime did not add to its nuclear weapons. Kristof says that policy of putting pressure on China has not worked. It would help if China did not transfer any technology to North Korea. Yet the basic policy of China remains in that it does not want renunification on the Korean peninsula that would put bring a U.S. ally on its southern border. The Bush administration and the Obama administration's policies did not lead to diplomatic progress and the world is a more dangerous place with North Korea's intercontinental ballistic missile capability in 2017. Kristof says it is time to give diplomacy a chance to work. See Bosworth, for how a veteran U.S. diplomat has built channels to North Korea through many years of diplomatic effort.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Ann Lee a former investment banker and now adjunct Professor at New York University, gives us facts that show the smaller banks that lend to small and medium sized businesses in the country are being closed by the FDIC. According to ADP small business that employs between 1 to 49 people, accounts for 48 million jobs, those between 50 and 499 employees account for 42 million jobs, and large business for only 17 million jobs. Without access to capital these small and medium sized businesses will continue to layoff employees, creating a vicious cycle of falling credit and demand. According to Automatic Data Processing's August employment report large business shed 60,000 jobs, medium sized business 116,000 jobs and small businesses shed 122,000 jobs. These smaller banks says Lee have done most of the lending to small and medium sized businesses. And overall lending has dropped from pre-crisis levels. Treasury's Capital Purchase Monthly Lending Report shows that banks that received government money actually reduced loan balance by $54 billion. According to reports issued by major credit rating agencies $700 billion of asset backed securities were underwitten in 2007. In 2009 only $10 billion was issued. This has a significant impact in every area. Banks have no incentive to lend with all the bad nonperforming loans on their books. They only hope that over time renegotiated loan terms would enable to recover these loans. But this might take a decade says Lee, if this is similiar to other crises like the one in Japan. She says what the banks do to make money is to borrow virtually unlimited amounts from the Fed at near zero rates and earn money from the spread when they lend to the Treasury. Does our current banking system make sense she asks. Banks are not investing in economic activity, in real products and services,but engaged in agovernment backed shell game that enriches bankers at the expense of everyone else. She says that the banking lobby may prevail in preventing the nationalization of the banking system, but this will not prevent questions about the status quo and its assumptions from arising if the recovery and regulatory reforms fail. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Joe Biden was about 78 when he entered the presidency. Reagan ended his presidency at age 79 in 1989. It is about 35 years since Reagan, and advances of medicine are making it possible for people to work longer with retirement ages extended to age 65 in many countries. Mr. Biden looks healthy and brings much experience from his decades in the Senate of the US. His 36 years in the Senate are the longest for any president. Turning 80 should not be a hurdle in that sense if one is healthy and the country needs this experience. During a foreign affairs crisis with China and Russia this experience of 12 years as ranking member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee is invaluable. More so as Biden reflects America's values. During his 36 years in the Senate he put forward the Violence Against Women's legislation in Congress. As Vice President he continued to advocate for working class and middle class and for families. One has to go back to Harry Truman to sense this kind of fervent and resolute action for workers and families, and for the American people. As president he passed the $1 trillion legislation for Workers and Families and to fight Climate Change. Building America Back Better is one of its goals and further investment in America and its people is being pushed forward.  Mr. Biden is living at a time when there is a struggle for the soul of the nation and he believes in his role in this struggle which gives him the energy he needs for his role in 2024 for continuing the work he has begun. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Both sides have taken a pause in negotiations yet they are getting closer. There is also the conversation that we are not aware of that is taking place between McCarthy/McConnell and Biden about G7 leaders asking Biden on the debt talks. McCarthy will not want to affect the Ukraine counter offensive with all the talk about a debt default impacting the credibility of the US. McCarthy also could pass an agreement through the House with Democrats support with a small faction of Republicans not supporting him if push comes to shove and matters reach a critical point. By negotiating in good faith Biden is surely doing the right thing. The important thing is to let moderate Republicans have an opportunity to support him in the task of Renewal of America. The bigger task is 2024 which Biden has his eyes on, because this is how America will be made or unmade with the right choices and the right priorities. And Biden needs independents and Republicans who might consider supporting him to get things done for America's Renewal. House Speaker McCarthy's Republicans now support keeping spending at $1.65 trillion the 2023 levels. The Biden administration would consider a program of small cuts- no deep cuts. And only for 2 years. On work requirements for government aid to the poor and vulnerable Biden says he supported work requirements when he was a Senator in the US Congress. He outright excludes any work requirements for health benefits. Biden understands that in an economy with jobs going unfilled in construction and hospitality industries, and in child care and teaching, nursing, with higher minimum wages, people looking for work could find work to make a decent or tolerable living.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
US unemployment rate was at about 3.7% for the third quarter 2022 and 263,000 jobs were added in November according to the Labor Department. Other estimates show that these numbers could be overstated by 500,000 for the year and likely to be revised. There is a shortage of labour after the pandemic and the labor participation rate is lower than before the pandemic. The Fed chairman Jay Powell discussed the strong labor market and his plan to attack inflation with rising housing, food, energy costs coupled with wage increases using Fed policy of raising interest rates. Rates could go up to 4.5% with another 0.75 % increase in December 2022.  Powell said in response to questions at the Brookings Institution last week that he was feeling his way through this inflation episode that was very different from previous bouts of inflation having started with supply chain issues that stemmed from the pandemic. It then became widespread with fears that it could get entrenched if a sharp stand is not taken by the Fed. Powell also says that he is acutely aware that he wanted to pause and see the effects of interest rate increases so that there is no overreaching that would hurt the lower income groups. He emphasized that lack of aggressive action by the Fed could let inflation go on for 4 or 5 years hurting these lower income groups the most because the wage increases would be more than wiped out by inflation. Finding the right balance is important to Powell as he looks to manage the risks on both sides of this issue- to hit inflation hard without hurting the lower income groups of society. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Dina Asher-Smith, Britain's greatest sprinter is bouncing back in the 200 metres sprint after the Tokyo Olympics. Here she talks to Sean Ingle in the Guardian.  Much of what she says from her experience and what she has learned is valuable for people working in all walks of life. How do you take the ups and downs (she did not do well at the Tokyo Olympics) and what is the best way to be? On the best way to be- "As a sprinter I want to be light, and bouncy and carefree. So you can't run fast with baggage. It's really unhealthy. You just gotta throw it out. What happened in Tokyo doesn't affect my calibre. It doesn't affect the  work I put in, or my potential. It was just really unfortunate timing. I'm not the first person it has happened to and certainly not the last." She says one never knows what someone else is facing behind the scenes. Nobody is truly unbeatable, and everything is always up for play, even if the odds look to be infinitely stacked against you. That is why she says she approaches every race as a clean slate. And that is why she does not bring whatever  happened last year to this year. And on that last bit of effort she says- "You have to stay focused, be humble and hungry, to keep finding those 0.01 seconds in every phase, and every step you do." ...

LyrArc Article Gist
About a third of Conservative party members of the 10,000 who will be voting soon for a new leader still like Mr. Boris Johnson. Some say he has his faults, but who doesn't. Mr. Johnson has a flamboyant carefree bouncy style that has endeared him to supporters, and had he taken the public more seriously to be consistent and steady he may well have remained a prime minister. He is the only leader of the Tories who could convince traditional Labor voters to vote Tory. Ms. Truss, who has unstinting support of Mr. Johnson will continue to see Mr. Johnson as a respected leader if she is elected. Truss sees Johnson getting a well earned break, as she put it in a debate, like his hero Churchill who lost elections in 1945 only to come back in 1951 with more experience, restraint and wisdom. In a recent debate she stood by Mr. Johnson saying he did not need to resign. Today's Tories are leaderless and not recognizable as a single entity without the prime minister. With a little restraint, awareness of his inexperience, openness and respect for the British public, Mr. Johnson may well have remained prime minister. He now appears to be seeking a second opportunity, says this report in WSJ. It is hard to imagine Brexit without Boris Johnson. He defied the established reasoning through common sense observation. He once said that the only thing Britain would lose from Brexit is that there would be a shortage of Mars bars. Ms. Truss is somewhere between Labor and the Conservative in her life long convictions, yet has taken the Brexit cause to heart. Sir Keir Starmer Labor leader says he too will be trying to make Brexit work. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Russian economy will contract by 10% and the Ukraine economy by 20% in 2022, says the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. The bank was setup to revive Eastern European economies after the collapse of the Soviet Union. In 2023 the Ukraine economy is expected to rebound by 23% with assistance from US and EU. The Russian economy faces long term challenges with lack of access to technology from EU and US and the loss of well educated workers leaving Russia, and is expected to face a long period of stagnation. The war has affected 60% of Ukraine's economic output and electricity consumption is down by 60%, with one third of Ukraine businesses closed, factories shutdown. Ukraine will be a much poorer country because a lot of stock has been destroyed, says Beata Javorcik, EBRD's chief economist. For Russia the drag on the economy will be present even if a peace agreement leads to lifting of sanctions says EBRD. Central Asian countries such as Uzbekistan and Armenia will also feel the effect of the slowdown with loss of remittance from workers in Russia. The faster shift to renewable energy and LNG in Germany, and a similar boost to renewable energy with COP26 Glasgow getting a boost in EU and the US, will result in loss of value of oil assets in Russia. With loss of technology access from US and EU Russian conversion away from a energy based economy will be slowed. All this is likely to lead to a difficult period for Russia. This means there are no gainers from this war, including China, which could see a further acceleration in US and EU restructuring of the supply chain away from China, leading to further slowing of growth. ...