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As Japanese prime minister Noda prepares to restart the Oi nuclear plant in June 2012, former prime minister Naoto Kan, who was premier during the Fukushima nuclear disaster, answers questions in a parliamentary inquiry. He says he realized how dangerous nuclear power can be when it got to the point where the evalcuation of Tokyo was being considered, Japan was then on "the verge of national collapse." His fears were that a number of meltdowns could together " release into the air and sea many times, no, many dozens of times, many hundreds of times the radiation released by Chernobyl." The Japanese public has focussed on the parliamentary hearings because the previous inquiry is thought to have been perfunctory, and not really examined in depth all the issues the Fukushima disaster had raised, and the general feeling is that a proper public dialogue had not taken place. In contrast in Germany the issues had been discussed openly, and the Angela Merkel government which had been receptive to nuclear power reversed its stand on nuclear power. Germany is phasing out dependence on nuclear energy. Kan pointed out that the "nuclear village," the network of nuclear power companies, bureaucrats, and researchers, had hijacked national nuclear policy and was putting Japan back on the same path. He went so far as to compare it with the situation facing Gorbachev in Russia after Chernobyl: "Gorbachev said in his memoirs that the Chernobyl accident exposed the sickness of the Soviet system. The Fukushima accident did the same for Japan." In his assessment of what happened Kan said: "It is impossible to ensure safety sufficiently to prevent the risk of a national collapse. Experiencing the accident convinced me that the best way to make nuclear plants safe is not to rely on them, but rather to get rid of them."...

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The cooperation announced between India and Britain on the experiment to look at one grid between countries in different time zones could be a game changer in the way new technologies have already achieved in making solar less costly than fossil fuel. Embrace of new technologies is essential for achieving net zero emissions. India first proposed connecting solar energy across countries and time zones at the International Solar Alliance in 2018. If a way can be found to integrate the grid across time zones the problems of solar energy could be tackled effectively. Storage would not be needed in the way it is now as the solar energy can be sent to other areas with the demand. And the equally vexing problem of supply can be solved as the regions such as Spain could be generating solar energy when the sun had set in India. It is ambitious but it also brings in scientists and engineers from Europe, America, India and Japan to tackle the problem. There is also the opportunity to build on one discovery to make another scientific discovery in the way advances have happened in medicine and science.  And nothing about net zero is not ambitious. One of the lessons Modi learned early in Gujarat is that experiments are needed and to never rule out new ideas. In some of his speeches he describes the early experiments with electricity and solar energy in Gujarat that led to more ambitious efforts over time, and eventually to where solar targets like the one made at COP26 Glasgow of 500 gigawatts by 2030 are now within reach. ...

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Key aspects of the new tax plan of the Trump administration are a 35% top tax rate for individuals, instead of the current 39.6% top rate, and lower brackets at 10% and 25%. Standard deductions are to be doubled, other deductions except for mortgage interest and charitable giving, are to be eliminated. The deduction for state and local taxes will be eliminated, with this hurting residents of high local tax states such as New Jersey, New York, and California. Gary Cohn, head of the National Economic Council and Treasury Secretary, Steven Mnuchin,  have helped formulate the plan. Cohn sees a big opportunity here for a huge tax cut and simplifying the tax system. The corporate tax rate would drop from 35% to 15%, and future foreign profits would owe little or no taxes. Corporate tax rates are lower in the UK, Germany and Japan- closer to 20%, and France has a similar 35% corporate tax rate. The hope of the Trump administration is that this will generate 3% GDP growth rate and spur creation of jobs. Still to be decided at what level tax brackets for individuals will be set, and what level earlier foreign profits will be taxed, and the child care break. ...

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The title is misplaced- does India have an edge with development in Uttar Pradesh after many administrations since Jawaharlal Nehru's time in his home city of Allahabad. Can water and electricity, Jal Jeevan and Swacch Bharat (Clean India) make a difference in India's largest state. Is development for all impartially given, funds impartially allocated indifference shown to caste and religious lines for delivery of services by the state and federal governments? India and China were at about the same place in 1990 as both countries opened up- can India close the gap. Can Indians stretch the imagination to set stretch goals like China has done. Most of the Indians who fail to stretch the imagination fail to remember that Beijing was mostly filled with bicycles for transport during 1990. China remained undaunted in 1990, she persevered against all the odds. So must India. In the US and European Union competition with China it looks to India for restructuring the supply chain. Is Uttar Pradesh a good place for domestic and foreign investment? Water and electricity goals are being achieved in Uttar Pradesh. Fundamental to development is the rule of law, as this sets the basis for development. Adequate infrastructure, a clean India, is what creates a good climate for investment from outside the state and from other countries such as Japan, the US and Germany. Uttar Pradesh now has the potential to lead the way.    ...

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Ian Talley provides this excellent account of how this drop in oil prices is likely to add to economic growth in major world economies, removing any ambiguity about the positive effect on the global economy. West Texas Intermediate crude dropped to about $65 from $105 between June and December 2014. The IMF estimates growth in 2015 will increase from 3.1% to 3.5% largely because of the lowering in energy costs. JP Morgan Chase economists see an addition of 0.7% points in global growth in the first half of 2015. ECB president Draghi sees the lower oil prices as an unambiguous positive. Estimates from Rhodium Group show major oil importing countries seeing import bills cut by $500 billion if prices remain low for 6-8 months, with $90 billion going into the U.S. economy. IMF estimate is that only 20% of the drop in oil prices is from lower demand, about 80% from higher fuel efficiency, increased supply using new technologies, decisions by OPEC to lower oil price, increases in supply. Based on estimates by the Rhodium Group, IEA and the IMF, the extra money flowing into the economies of the U.S., Asia and Western Europe from reduced oil import bills, as measured in percentage of GDP is: the U.S. 0.5%, Germany 0.8%, Japan 1.2%, China 0.8%, India 1.8%, South Korea 2.4%. Italy and France and other oil importing countries benefit. The impact comes at a time when Japan, China, India and eurozone economies badly needed a boost after significant slowdown in growth in 2014. It could not have come at a better time and because it is technologically driven as in the case of highly fuel efficient automobiles and new oil exploration technologies, a self sustaining process. The corresponding impact for oil exporters is: Russia -4.7%, Nigeria -5.4%, Venezuela -10.2%....

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BBC looks at the Indus Waters Treaty of 1960 that allocates waters of 6 rivers. Waters of three rivers in the east going to India, and 80% of waters of three western rivers including the Indus river going to Pakistan. Both countries are required to share waters data to manage agriculture. India is upstream for these rivers.  In the same way China is upstream of the river Brahmaputra in India and is building dams in Tibet to control flow of water downstream to India. There is no treaty for the Brahmaputra between India and China as China has occupied Tibet since 1950's and acquired Aksai Chin in the Kashmir region from Pakistan. Before 1950 for ten centuries Tibet region was a distant land mostly unreachable from China and China was never in control of Tibet. Kashmir region for 15 out of 18 centuries since 100 BC was a land of Vedic, Buddhist Shiva cultures. For China the occupation of Tibet on the borders of India creates a situation that is not sustainable for long and stretches resources at a time when India is rapidly building the same level of infrastructure on its side of the border. Chinese people in the provinces bordering Tibet have shown little interest in moving to the vastly different high country of Tibet. At some point in history not too distant by 2050, China (and Japan) will revert to its Buddhist religion and culture and with respect for Buddhist culture see Sarnath, Kushinagar, and Bodh Gaya more as sacred pilgrimage places in India, a common heritage with India to be treasured and revered. Something the Europeans and Americans cannot comprehend, the depth and breath of Vedic Buddhist and Shiv culture in Asia. ...

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What does fast growth in the world's fastest growing economy, that is a key part of America's and the European Union's and Japan's supply chain look like. It is based on people inclusive development called Sab Ka Vikas Sab ke Saath, Gandhiji's idea of the last person in the line ever present and watchful of the task at hand. This Powerpoint of the blueprint of the Indian Budget  for 2024-25 from Nirmala Sitharaman and the Finance Ministry shows a visual of what the growth looks like for the farm, industrial, housing, health, education and other sectors of the economy. It is a journey just beginning under Vikshit Bharat with a target date of the 100th  anniversary of independence 2047. Here one can see the target of increasing capital expenditures for infrastructure and various development schemes by 11.1%. GST (one tax one country) tax revenues are expected to increase by around 12% which support this budget. Strengthening financial sector to bring investment back on track after the pandemic is one of the support pillars, so is deepening and widening tax base through the GST a uniform federal tax for the whole country. Another pillar is proactive inflation management- the story of how India tackled the cost of energy by accessing from different suppliers at the best price is told this week in Feb 2024 in the WSJ. Foreign Minister Jaishankar told the Munich Security Conference with Blinken and Baerbock in the panel that India with 1.4 billion people's future at stake should be seen as done the right thing, the smart thing. Inflation has been kept at about 5%, and key economic growth projected at 7-8% over the next decade with goal of becoming the third largest economy in the world. ...

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Yuka Hayashi's interview with Gen. Shigeru Iwasaki, Chief of the Joint Chiefs of Japan's Self Defence Forces. Iwasaki says Japan will improve its defense capabilities in the southwestern part of Japan and protect Japanese airspace. Japan will increase defense spending under the government of LDP leader Shinzo Abe.

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Because of its size ($230 billion in sales) Toyota is Japan's largest taxpayer, largest company, showcases its engineering capabilities, and one of its largest employers. Which is why Akio Toyoda referred to returning Toyota to profitability as part of the effort for the "revitalization of Japan." Experts in Japanese universities who think the Toyota crisis offers lessons about Japan's future, see a direction away from mass manufactured products to a more service driven economy. Already the Japanese economy is down from 28% of the economy in manufacturing in 1990 to 22% in 2008.

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GM executive Mark Hogan had candid discussions with Akio Toyoda when Hogan began a second five year stint at NUMMI in 1997, and Akio was executive vice president at NUMMI in 1998. NUMMI was a joint venture between Toyota and GM. He now joins the Board of Directors at Toyota, the first outside board member, and only the second foreigner to do so after Jim Press. His role is to help counteract the insular culture at Toyota based in Nagoya, Japan, where most decisions end up coming to Nagoya. This was a problem that led to poor handling of the recall crisis in 2010, when Akio Toyoda brought Hogan in as an advisor to Toyota. He will listen to voices outside Japan and have direct access to Akio Toyoda. Hogan told the media: "I see my role as listening to global voices outside of Japan and then sharing insights that will help Toyota to respond more quickly to changes in society." His role also includes looking at Toyota's Brazilian operations, where Toyota has only 5.2% of the market and lags far behind Fiat, VW, and other competitors. Hogan headed GM's Brazilian operations in the 1990's and says he would kid Akio about Toyota's underperormance in Brazil. In 1994 Hogan left GM to become president of Magna International, a Canadian auto parts maker....

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Obama ACA subsidies to go directly to the people through Health Savings Accounts proposed by Republican Senators Graham, Scott and Cassidy in 2017, and again in 2025, and not to Insurance companies. In a post on his social media site DJT tells Congress that the ACA subsidies given directly to people rather than money sucking insurance companies would lead to a better result of people getting their own and better coverage for less money than under Obama type subsidies sent to insurance companies.  Much of Obamacare was done under a campaign from insurance companies and other health vested interests that undermined the original objectives so that however good the original objectives the watered down, disincentivising of reducing unproductive costs, led to a hotch potch band aid result. A common sense approach with the courage to get the right result that works for the people of the Nation to get good health care similar to Japan and other nations in Europe at reasonable cost is not a goal that an advanced nation like the US should see as unreachable or beyond our efforts, skills and wisdom. Obama and Bush failed, Bush in a major error to remove the negotiating power of government Medicare agency with pharmaceutical companies that Democrats failed to push back. ...

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Friedman says the fairly obvious that Democrats in the US and Social Democrats in Europe readily grasp. That unrestricted immigration on the southern border in the US or in the southern border of Europe actually does little to improve the situation for people in the US and Europe or the people in the countries migrants are leaving because of unsettled conditions. Germany has shifted to a policy of becoming involved in development in Africa. Japan's International Cooperation Agency has worked for many years in African countries. The US has its own efforts to assist Mexico through trade and manufacturing. It is working with Central American countries that are a major source of migrants on the southern border at different times. Mette Frederiksen, head of the Danish Social Democrats government, has put it very well when she said that the only people who are getting hurt by open border policies are the working class families in Denmark. This is true also of other parts of the EU and the US. Simply by letting in migrants, a policy that is harmful to workers and families. Conservatives are looking to make political gains and further their own interests, indifferent to social divisions and increasing lack of upward mobility in society. Immigration has become the tool for many of the conservative parties that have used it in ways harmful to interests of workers and families, in Britain, in the US, and in the EU. One has only to see the large delegation that Mette Frederiksen led to India for discussions with prime minister Modi, the economic ministries, and business, to see how she did the right thing on a huge scale. Denmark is the world leader in logistics with Maersk, and in renewable energy. Denmark and the Nordic countries are working closely with a country of 1.4 billion people to improve the logistics to make India comparable to China in manufacturing for export. And similarly in renewable energy technologies. The Nordic countries and the EU have simply by these actions done more to uplift hundreds of millions of people in Asia than anything that ever happened in the history of the world. And the US is also working with India in the same way. India acts as a stable source of growth and model for a whole stretch of Asia from Indonesia to Vietnam. The population lifted out of poverty - 2 billion people. ...

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China's manufacturing sector contracts in June with the PMI index dropping below 50 - to 49.0.  Exports were also coming in lower. Experts say the increase in interest rates by the US is reducing imports of Chinese goods into the US. This comes as local governments are strained in their finances by $900 billion, and a budding revolt is taking place from property buyers with developers in financial trouble, as reported in the WSJ. Psychological hurdles now loom in the loss of confidence in the public in the property sector, loss of confidence of foreign investors with many constraints in operating, mental health issues for the population in many cities with the covid lockdowns.   The growth has slowed to 0.4% and there is now a realization dawning that there was overdependence both on property sector and foreign investment that set up new factories offshored from the US and Europe that alienated the public in these countries. Unlike wih the situation of Japan in the sixties and seventies for modernizing its economy growth of the scale China was pushed into by misguided and self interested  business interests in the US including its investment banks and local government officials in China without restraint by the central government in Beijing, ultimately led to trade friction and permanent damage to US China friendly relations. Communities in the US and the EU simply could not cope with the hyper growth from hyper shift of factories from the home countries to China that pushed this hyper growth. The property sector played the same role in the domestic front with too big a burden carried by it resulting in hyper growth. This did not have to happen. It happened because of a lack of understanding that this would have consequences in the longer run which is now showing up. ...

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Landers and Gale of the WSJ show how undersupplied conscript soldiers, high inflation and industrial breakdowns during wartime have led to major upheavals in Russia. Three conflicts led to such changes in Russia's domestic situation. The Russo-Japanese war in 1905 led to Russia seeing one fourth of 340,000 Russian troops killed in a battle near the Chinese city of Shenyang, and loss of most of its Baltic fleet in a Japanese attack on Port Arthur. The war ended with a peace treaty arranged by president Theodore Roosevelt of the United States. The Russian czar gave up most of his absolute powers in 1905.  In 1914 Ukraine was involved in regime change as the Germans fought to take Ukraine. The czar wanted to keep Russia's expansive sphere of influence. Without Ukraine's agriculture and industry and its population Russia would not be a great power, says an expert on Czarist Russia. At the time the Russian military was ill prepared in motorized vehicles and communications equipment, and industry lacked the ability to resupply the military. Inflation jumped leading to unrest and protests. Fighting in the First World War led to millions of refugees. In 2022 experts see the same old problem of seeking spheres of influence leading to wars, and the lack of sufficient ability to cope with prolonged wars when short wars were expected by the regimes in power in Russia. Dissent inside Russia and protests led to the abdication of Czar Nicholas in March 2017, and Bolsheviks led by Lenin seizing power in November of 2017. By 1979 Ukrainian leader Leonid Brezhnev was leader of the Soviet Union as Russia's economy could not keep up with modernization. Seeking spheres of influence Brezhnev pushed into a long war in Afghanistan in the mistaken idea that a quick strike on Kabul with a change in government would achieve Soviet goals in central Asia. By 1989 the Russian army withdrew from Afghanistan and in 1990 the protests led to the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union and emergence of Russia as a separate country. Landers and Gale of the WSJ see these events in Russian history showing how wars have led to domestic changes and upheavals in Russia when leaders projected power beyond Russia's capacity to handle the results of conflict. Russia's economy is about the size of Italy or Britain say experts and its industry much smaller than the European Union economies and the US, Japan combined.  ...

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Krugman puts it best when he says in the NYT that he's got a sick feeling in the pit of his stomach. Its just that the Republican challenge of not a single vote in the House for the $789 billion Stimulus bill just makes it harder to go back for more money which most definitely will be needed. The Congressional Budget Office predicts that over the next 3 years there will be a $2.9 trillion gap between what the economy could produce and will actually produce. $789 billion won't be enough, and more so because the weightage shifted in the direction of tax cuts from the original version. And considering the accelerating nature of the crisis on the housing front and in layoffs and consumption, the absence of a clear action plan with specifics to deal with the bad debt in the banking system, is what gives this sick feeling in the stomach. Because as is stated on these same pages by experts from Japan on February 12, NYT, see the link, Japan went through this same soul searching, public anger, controversy, and political leaders were afraid to take strong action for years from the mid 1990's till 2003 after Koizumi's election. Each action or set of actions each year during that period before 2003 was behind the curve, and did not match what was needed. For the USA this has happened already for 2007, 2008 and is heading in that direction for 2009, with a lack of consensus for the strong action needed. Would 4 million new jobs be generated by the current stimulus if that is a measure of success, as Obama indicated at his first press conference? With less going into spending for education, infrastructure, energy and other green projects, in favor of tax cuts and the AMT, and the feeling that going to Congress for more money will be harder and a partisan affair, will this become difficult to achieve? ...

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Japanese prime minister Naoto Kan says he has requested the suspension of operations of all reactors a the Hamaoka nuclear plant in Shizuoka prefecture. This plant is operated by Chubu Electric. Another plant on the Japan sea coast has been shut temporarily to investigate above normal radiation levels. With the government moving away from its policy of cooperating with the industry, there are questions whether other nuclear plants that are on earthquake fault locations may face similiar restrictions. This move will further restrict electricity supplies to companies in the local areas supplied by the plant. The Hamaoka plant has been described as "the world's most dangerous" by Japanese media because it lies near an active fault zone. Government estimates are for an 87% likelihood of a magnitude 8 earthquake in the next 30 years. Pressure is growing on premier Kan to take action to show he is listening to public opinion and not following old practices of collusion between bureaucrats, politicians and the nuclear power companies....

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Japan's cabinet approves a change in interpretation for Article 9 of the constitution to permit "collective self-defense." The wording was negotiated with the more pacifist New Komeito party in the coalition government to cover attacks on Japanese allies such as the U.S., but limit it to actions that seriously threaten Japan. Because the Liberal Democratic party of prime minister Abe controls both houses of parliament the change is likely to go through. The U.S. president Obama, Defense Secretary Hagel, and Rear Admiral John Kirby of the U.S. Navy see this as improving security and stability in the region.

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Negotiations between Japan and China before the APEC summit in Beijing, Nov. 2014, lead to an agreement that does not explicitly state Japan's sovereignty over the Senkaku islands, but acknowledges the current position in which the islands have remained in Japanese control since 1880. It lets both sides agree to disagree so that trade and diplomatic ties can be improved. China's economy has taken a hit from a 50% decline in Japanese foreign investment in 2014, just as the economy is slowing for other reasons. Both leaders can show the international community they have moderated their positions. Prime minister Abe also can show his foreign and domestic policies are working as his high poll ratings have declined in recent months.

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By influential business leaders from Brazil, India, Sweden, the US, France and Japan. A strong case for completing the Doha Round even if this takes difficult and decisive choices. The concern is about preserving and building on all the gains in free trade made in earlier Rounds. Not one of the earlier Rounds failed so this would be a first. Differences in areas like agriculture which are politically sensitive in countries like France and Brazil stand in the way. See the article by Scott Miller, French Resistance to Trade Accord has Cultural Roots, in the Wall Street Journal, May 16, 2006.

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Shinzo Abe talks about China and Japan being similiar to competing powers Britain and Germany towards the end of the 19th century at a meeting in Davos.

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This WSJ editorial is pessimistic about the prospects for Abenomics without the actions needed for structural economic reform. Japan is in a recession after two successive quarters of declining growth by the end of 2015. It gives credit to prime minister Abe for encouraging companies to add more independent directors to the boards and pushing for improving corporate governance, but finds other actions lacking. The low unemployment rate is seen as concealing the problem of two tier labor market with most of the recent job growth coming from temporary workers, and the total number of worked hours actually declining. The 30% decline in the yen has not boosted the economy as much as expected because it also means decline in consumer spending power, and Japanese companies continue to move jobs overseas. It cites a Nikkei poll showing only 25% of the Japanese public now see Abenomics as improving the condition of the economy. The declining growth in China is also playing a part in slowing growth in Japan, adding more headwinds for Abenomics in 2016....

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Toyota introduces the Aqua hybrid model in Japan with advance orders of 60,000. This model will be introduced wordwide as the Prius c. Toyota plans to introduce 11 hybrid models in the two years till the end of 2012. The Aqua is the 6th hybrid of the 11 models. The Aqua has fuel efficiency of 35.4 kilometres per liter, higher than the 32.6 of the larger Prius model. Its starting price is 1.69 million yen or $22,000. A lot depends on the hybrid models, as Toyota has set an ambitious target of increasing sales by 20% in 2012, after a 6% drop in sales in 2011.