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Zara which started with one store in La Coruna aport town in a remote part of northern Spain is the second largest retail clothing chain after Gap Stores now has3691 stores in 68 countries, adding 560 stores in the last 12 months and entering new markets in places like Croatia, Columbia, Guatemala, and Oman. Its best known for fast fashion and updating fashion frequently with new fashion clothing coming in twice a week. Lower volumes mean they sell out fast and don't require writedowns and fashions that fly can be resupplied quickly because Zara does most of its manufacturing (two thirds) in Spain or in countries nearby like Portugal, Morocco and Turkey. The closeness of manufacture and the logistics are set up such that the orders can be made quickly with sales monitored constantly on computers at La Coruna HQ and at stores locations and the manufacture and shipping can be done speedily. Not requiring writedowns and selling lower cost fashion at higher prices especially outside Spain where prices are higher (40% higher in New York for instance) and having an efficient system with costs weeded out and focus on building the brand and pleasing customers to command good profit margins enables Zara to continue manufacturing in Spain where costs are not what they would be in China or Vietnam. As other stores are learning from Zara and doing this in their stores Zara is working on refocussing its formula and fine tuning it to stay ahead of competitors. For example its making sure costs do not rise faster than sales, for first half 2007 costs went up 16% and sales went up 19%. Staff is being scheduled using new software based on sales volume at differen times, so that more salespeople work at peak times such as lunchtime or early evening, which enable Zara to cut 2% of hours worked. Alarm tags are attached at the factory, and the newest collections get labelled NEWC and are rushed to the floor on plastic hangars and only later switched to wooden hangers, and store managers now use handheld computers to sho garments ranking by sales so reordering can be done quickly in less than an hour....

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Lessons from the Mexican financial crisis of 1994-95 with the collapse of the Mexican peso, and a massive government bank bailout and Mexico's biggest slump since the Great Depression. Guillermo Ortiz, now central bank governor, was finance minister at the time. He discussed things with Fed Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke, about the Mexican experience which could be seen as the first financial crisis of the global economy. What lessons can be learned? Ortiz says there comes a moment when something happens that leads to a general loss of confidence. Once this happens things can deteriorate fast. This happened when Mexico could not successfully manage the devaluing of the peso. For the USA this might have happened with the collapse of Lehman, which may have triggered a sequence of events leading to a general loss of confidence and banks fear of lending to each other and credit markets getting frozen. At that point Ortiz says its better to do too much than to do too little, as it takes a lot to restore confidence. "And don't be ruled by ideology, stay flexible and act decisively. Help those with mortgages they can't pay. Take stakes in troubled banks. Don't expect to turn a profit on government investment." How do you tackle mortgage workouts or modification. Vicente Corta who led Mexico's bank bailout program says "we tried fancy scemes that did not work. We ended up saying 'OK you pay half your mortgage, and we'll pick up the other half." Sounds similiar to what FDIC's Sheila Barr is doing on a small scale at IndyMac bank, basically " making mortgages affordable." And take stake of ownership in banks in exchange for injection of capital. Paul Krugman says the Bush administration earlier was reluctant to do this, thinking oh that is socialism, because they let themselves get into an ideological bind. Until Gordon Brown did just this in the UK with RBS and HBOS banks on Monday October 13, 2008. In that case because no on else came forward Britain took a majority stake. British finance Minister, Alistair Darling, stated that the British government was not in the business of running banks and that this was taking a necessary step to restore lending. The Mexican experince in this context is very instructive. It cost Mexico dearly in terms of political warfare about this, because once Banamex for example- to which the Mexican governmet gave money without any ownership stake- became healthy it was sold to Citigroup for $12 billion and the government got nothing. In Mexico Lopez Obrador and other politicians have created a running debate about this as totally unfair and it has been divisive for Mexican politics, making passing even basic legislation difficult. Ortiz now says take ownership stakes and if you don't forget about socialism you will have political fallout of a different kind when banks once healthy and profitable are on their own owing little to the government; just when the government falls short of financing the basic programs for the elderly, for children, for schools, for health care,and for collapsing bridges and roads that are falling apart, not to speak of funding shortfalls for Medicare and Social Security. So Guillermo Ortiz has some very useful advice for Ben Bernanke and the Fed and for Treasury and for the next President. Edmund Phelps of Columbia University was interviewed on Bloomberg today, October 13. He is a recent winner of the Nobel prize in Economics. He also believes capital injection into the banks- like other economist have suggested -is the key to getting the banks to lend. He thinks the auction process and buying up toxic assets is way too complicated and would take way too much time. He thinks keeping homeowners in their homes and reducing foreclosures is critical and thinks Martin Feldstein has some good ideas on this. See the links to Martin Feldstein. What if things still deteriorate? The government may have to nationalize or takeover some of the banks, he says. Gordon Brown has already taken over RBS and HBOS. What are some of the ways to improve things. One is that credit ratings firms he says have become almost oracular. Do they know what can happen in the future he asks. We have to rethink what it means to give a rating he says. And the U.S. financial institutions have to go back to doing what they should be doing in the first place, which is to finance investments in companies and business, and not homes and residential construction. ...

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Winkler says Nokia may make it but it looks more likely that Research In Motion may not make it through the current storm.

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AT&T had 4.3 million iPhone activations in the first quarter of 2012, down 43% from the prior quarter. Of the most valuable subscribers who signed up for 2 years AT&T showed 187,000 additions. All but 7000 of these were in tablets. . This indicates that the smartphone market in the U.S. is being saturated. AT&T used the iPhone introduction in 2007 as a way to take subscribers from Verizon and Sprint. That advantage is now fading.

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Blackston and Karnitschnig describe the European Central Bank's role in the current crisis and buying of bonds of troubled eurozone countries. And the resistance in Germany to the ECB's purchase of bonds of eurozone countries to prevent contagion effects in the eurozone. ECB President Trichet only reluctantly pushed the ECB into bond purchases in the recurring crises, and saw the ECB's role as strictly limited to controlling inflation and maintaining a stable euro currency. There is resistance in Germany to the ECB printing money to cover eurozone debt of Greece, Ireland, Italy and Spain. This comes from the searing experience with hyperinflation, an economic crisis similiar to that of the U.S. with the Great Depression, when the Reichsbank printed money in the 1920's to buy large quantities of government bonds. The Bundesbank that ensured Germany's postwar recovery focussed on a single mandate to control inflation, and this is a key part of the ECB's charter. The first president of the ECB when it was founded in 1998, was Dutchman Wim Duisenberg, who would tell politicians: "I hear you, but I don't listen." When Frenchman Trichet became the second ECB president, he focussed on inflation fighting efforts. He warned against the extravagant spending and fiscal irresponsibility of some eurozone countries saying "we are dancing on a volcano."...

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The House of Representatives just passed a bill to stem foreclosures and stabilize house prices by having the government through the Federal Housing Administration reinsure upto $300 billion of problem loans. The bills backers estimate 1.5 million foreclosures could be prevented by this bill but the Congressional Budget Office estimates only about 500,000 foreclosures can be averted this way. Under this bill lenders would have to writedown their loans to 85% of current value of the house. Borrowers pay a fee for the insurance and give up any share in future price appreciation to the government. According to the Congressional Budget Office the cost to the government is modest about $1.7 billion over years. The reason for the limited effectiveness of this bill is that it is voluntary, not much government money is extended. Many of the comments in the blog on this article as is the case with other articles on help to homeowners facing foreclosure show the widespread idea that its a bailout of irresponsible decisions by homeowners and mortgage companies who made the loans. This may be the reason why so little has been done in this regard and the limited government money extended even in plans put forth by Congressional Democrats like Barney Frank. Feldstein who is a former Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors under Reagan has taken a different approach focussing on homeowners who may see the rational decision is to walk away from homes where they have no equity in their homes as prices drop by 20% and for government to prevent a wave of foreclosures in this manner. The danger is if not much is done there could be a downward spiral in home prices as foreclosure reach a new high in 2009. Last year according to Economist's charts foreclosures were averaging more than 100,000 a month now they are averaging more than 200,000 a month, this would take it from 1.5 million foreclosures in 2007 to 2.5 million in 2008. According to the Economist 9 million people owe more than their house is worth, the homeowners who have negative equity, and if they were to foreclose at the rate of 2-3 million a year and accelerating as the economy deteriorates, this could be enough to start a downward spiral. At that point a new President and Congress would have to take drastic action with a substantial amount of the government's money. In that kind of crisis not much thought would be given to the cost because like the financial meltdown that was feared during the Bear Stearns crisis the fears of a global severe economic crisis would make action necessary on many fronts of which housing would be one....

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Gates experience one rainy night in March, at Dover Air Force Base in Delaware, welcoming 4 dead soldiers who lost their lives to a roadside bomb on a rutted road near Jalalabad, Afghanistan, provides an insight into what he sees as important for the US military. One is to address the realities of the war that is facing the US in the now, not some theoretical conventional war as the Pentagon is overly focused on. This war is fought in insurgencies in Iraq and in the Pakistan-Afghanistan area. And even the takeover of nuclear weapons by Taliban, is not ruled out with the collapse of the government in Pakistan. So he sees reason for doing things quickly. At Dover that night, Gates expressed his anger to his staff, "find out why they had'nt gotten their goddamn MRAP's yet (Mine Resistant Ambush Protected Vehicles). Gates went into the 747 carrying the draped coffins, and knelt alone and prayed for 5 minutes. Gates was President of Texas A&M University, before he took the assignment at Defense during the last 2 years of the Bush administration. He knows the ways of the bureaucracy, and is a persistent and effective when faced with lack of cooperation and delays. When the field commanders in Afghanistan said they needed 40 Predator combat air patrols instead of the 12 they had, Gates went around the bureaucratic delays and had his task force set up and and doing problem solving down to details. They went about getting more flying time, and pilots, and control stations in the air force to support this. He keeps presentations limited to 45 minutes, and inists all slides be turned in the day before, for him to look over carefully. And he is decisive in making changes. The Army Secretary was asked to come to Washington immediately, and fired on the spot, not Gates says for the appalling conditions at Walter Reed Army Hospital, but for not acknowledging that problems existed and taking quick action to fix them. And Gates is using the 2010 Defense budget to steer away from large scale conventional weapons programs, and get more money for the immediate needs of the field commanders in the wars being fought today. He makes it clear in talking with lawmakers, that "listening to our troops and commanders, unvarnished and unscripted, has from the moment I took the job been the greatest single source of ideas on what the department needs to do." In doing this he has to face up to the bureaucracy and set ways of doing things at the Defense Department, things that were never questioned under his predecessor Rumsfeld. In 2008 the generals who run the Army, Navy, Air Force, and Marine Corps formally "non-concurred" with the classified version of Gates's National Defense Strategy, which said it was necessary "to take additional acceptable risk" in the area of conventional war so that the military could improve its ability to fight irregular wars. Gates met with all the defense chiefs to listen to their objections, and decided to draw his own conclusion after thinking it over, that the reasons given "were non-compelling," considering the grave dangers that the military was facing in existing wars. Gates is convinced that its his job to give the troops in the field the equipment and resources they need, and he is not letting the military brass or officials block the way. He does not let the criticism affect him. Gates is very quiet when he listens to arguments presented on the other side that he does not share, responding in a thoughtful and controlled manner. Last week, Jaffe of the WPost says, Gates flew to Afghnistan to ask for the resignation of Gen McKiernan the field commander there, a man he had chosen 11 months earlier, but now felt was the wrong man for the job. During this trip he visited a new base being built in southern Afghanistan, and met four marines whose MRAP vehicle took the blast from a roadside bomb, all survived with minor scratches and injuries, and one broken arm. Gates was mightily pleased. ...

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Mario Draghi faces his first test as head of the European Central Bank as Italian bond yields approach 8%. Draghi has limited purchases of bonds of troubled EU countries to 5-10 billion euros each week. This has been sufficient to keep Italian bond yields from going out of control, but high enough to keep pressure on governments in Italy, Spain, Portugal and Greece to make necessary changes. France, Germany and other countries in the EU are working on new rules for making strict budget discipline legally binding, with enforcement sanctions by a EU budgetary authority. Germany is pushing for the new rules. France's Sarkozy with a legacy of Gaullist reluctance to surrender sovereignty in such matters had resisted such calls in the past, but is moving in the direction of convergence of fiscal policies as the only way to preserve the euro currency and the EU idea alive. Draghi is taking a flexible stance on inflation and lowering rates compared to his predecessor, Trichet. He sees signs of slowing manufacturing activity and credit tightening in Europe as signs that inflation will come down from above 3% to something closer to the 3% target set by the ECB. Economists expect him to lower interest rates for the eurozone to 1% from 1.25%, when the ECB meets in a week. The manufacturing purchasing manager's index went down to 46.4 in November, below the breakeven point of 50, which signals a contraction. Output and orders were down across all of Europe, including Germany. Economists say Draghi has left open the possibility of larger bond purchases if the new rules are made legally binding on eurozone members....

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Figures from the European Commission and the ECB show that the ECB's balance sheet reached 32% of eurozone GDP in March 2012. Comparable figures for the U.S. Federal Reserve for March 2012 are 19%, Bank of England 21% and the Bank of Japan 30%. The ECB's balance sheet in March 2012 is at 3.023 trillion euros. ECB president Mario Draghi says this is high but "it will be managed very well."

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Voter sentiment changes in Italy for the Democratic party led by prime minister Letta, only a few months after the national elections. Under Letta who belongs to a younger generation of Italian leaders, the Democratic party which supports being in the EU and pro-growth policies, has staged a comeback in Italian mayoral elections for 67 cities. The party of Mr. Berlusconi lost ground, and the party of newcomer Beppe Grillo also lost ground. Voter turnout was 48.5%, after years of failed politics of the national parties in Italy. This is new reason for optimism for the future of Italy.

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Verizon's support for another ecosystem in Nokia powered by Microsoft software. This would increase its leverage with Apple and reduce the large payments for carrying iPhones.

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Gates gives his perspective on the US role in foreign affairs and how the new policy of the US should be shaped.

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Comparison of cost of components and margins for Nokia's Lumia smartphone and the Apple iPhone 4S in 2012. The Lumia 900 retail price is $450 vs. Apple iPhone 4S for $649. Total component cost for Lumia $209 vs. $190 for Apple. Margin of $241 for Lumia vs. $459 for Apple.