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87% of the American people support sending back to their countries illegal entry migrants who have committed crimes or offenses in the US in a Pew Research poll and similar in a NYTimes poll. How many of these countries in Latin America allow illegal entry without visas? None. WSJ reports Colombia turns back 2 C-17 military flights Mexico 1 in midair on Jan 27, 2025. This led to a diplomatic standoff with DJT imposing 25% tariffs on increasing in a week to 50% on imports from Colombia entering the US. Colombia agreed to take back the immigrants after the US tariffs.  In 2024 Colombia accepted 124 deportation flights into the country from the US. Yet president Petro objected to these flights on military aircraft and responded on X. DJT responded on Truth Social: "I was just informed that two repatriation flights from the United States, with a large number of Illegal Criminals, were not allowed to land in Colombia. This order was given by Colombia's Socialist President Gustavo Petro, who is already very unpopular amongst his people." DJT then instructed for 25% tariff on Colombian imports into the US which would be raised to 50% if Colombia did not accept the flights in 1 week. DJT said this is just the beginning and also imposed a travel ban to the US. DJT stated this was a threat to the national security of the US. Colombia then accepted the military flights.  Trade two way is $54 billion and Colombia exports coffee, sugar and oil. Colombia imports about $25 billion and exports about $29 billion to the US. Oil exports from Colombia to US are $6 billion, flowers $1.2 billion and coffee $1.6 billion.  ...

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Chancellor Merkel warned that Germany could ease restrictions "too quickly" endangering progress made. Germany has about 145,000 cases but only about 3% of cases as deaths. Europe has about 1 million cases with 10% of cases as deaths, with much higher rates of deaths in Spain and Italy.

As oil demand plummets oil price of WTI West Texas Intermediate benchmark drops to $11 by April 20. The oil deal to remove 9.7 million barrels a day has not boosted oil prices because of the steep sudden fall in demand.

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Der Spiegel has this interview with Robert Habeck, Economy Minister of Germany, on how Germany will cope with a step by step cutoff of oil and gas supplies from Russia in winter 2022. Habeck says this is likely to happen. Der Spiegel ask Habeck questions about the various actions Habeck is taking to get Germany through this winter. This includes bringing back coal plants that were being phased out, plans for industry to pass on gas that it is not using, setting priorities for homes over industry where possible, providing aid to people with low incomes who cannot afford to heat their homes this winter. Habeck calls for greater efforts for conservation that can reduce gas consumption by 10% with simple steps such as shorter time in the shower,  setting the thermostat down by 1 or 2 degrees in winter, using air conditioning less often, cooking in a way that uses gas efficiently, increasing insulation in the home, better distribution of air in the home, and so on. How much time does Habeck spend in the shower- less than 5 minutes. He leaves home by 7 and gets back late at night after work. Does he think Germans have the grit and determination to meet the challenge Putin is posing of creating disaffectionmnin German society through first gas prices and then gas shortages this winter? Habeck believes Germans can and will respond in a way that takes Germany through this winter and through all the threats Russia under Putin is posing. ...

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It depends- only if you look at it in actual millions of people. In percent of people Voice of America and this WSJ report show that US obesity rate is much higher with 22 states above 35% and the rate overall at about 25%, compared to China's at about 14%. The fact that this was reported in this way is happening as this issue is taken far too casually in the US, when the quality of life is largely dependent on health. And such high levels of obesity in the US, catastrophic levels in some southern and midwestern states, means one is not doing things right and heading for a poorer quality of life. This report in the WSJ cites estimates of obesity in China of as high as 200 million and likely to grow by another 100 million by 2034, about 14% of the population being obese today and obesity increasing to about 20%. In China the demand for weight loss drugs is growing. The government has a program to reduce the intake of salt, sugar and oil and increase health foods in the diet. Meat in the diet has tripled and there is a need for more health conscious attitudes in China, even more so and urgently in the US. Both the US and China are too auto centric in their culture, particularly the US where public transportation has not been given high priority leading to a lack of enough exercise getting to work. ...

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The changes taking place in Saudi Arabia under Prince Mohamad Bin Salman are the subject of this article from Prof. Mohsin Khan of Jindal Global University. Similar changes were initiated earlier under MBZ Mohamad Bin Zayad in the UAE which inspired the changes in Saudi Arabia. The effects are easy to see for Upward Mobility, Diversity, the economy, the relations with the EU and the US and other countries, the shift away from oil to renewables, women's participation in the workplace, and education in science and technology. During the last 50 years the wars in the Middle East have wasted resources in unimaginable ways, human and in trillions of dollars that could have improved the quality of life and ease of living of people. The result is that like Britain in the nineteenth century the US in the 21st shows no interest in Afghanistan or regions of South Asia which have scattered its resources. The shift now is to the seas and the region that covers the west coast of Africa through the Indian Ocean to the Pacific past Indonesia to Japan and the Hawaiian islands, the western coast of the US- called the Indo-Pacific. With the US, India, Australia, and Japan committed to freedom of navigation and international law in the region. It is all about investment, new supply chains, trade and growth, science and technology. And the UAE, Saudi now fit in within this larger framework, along with the European Union, and other countries in this region. ...

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The Reserve Bank of India (RBI), India's central bank, left rates unchanged in October 2012. RBI Governor Subbarao says inflation could go above 8% by January 2013. High global oil prices and a weaker currency are adding to food price increases to push inflation higher. The RBI lowered its growth forecast to 5.8% from 6.5%. Mr Rangarajan, chairman of the Prime Minister's Advisory Council said the RBI will not lower rates till January 2013 unless there is a significant tendency for a decline in inflation before then.

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Markey and Dingell are supporting diiferent fuel efficiency standards in the House. Vote on the legislation in the House has been postponed after a meeting between Speaker Pelosi and Ed Markey. This gives Markey more time to build a consensus for stricter fuel econonomy standards among House members to be voted on later this year. Meantime rising crude oil prices which are close to $80 a barrel and reaching new highs may nudge the House in his direction while giving the automakers time to adjust their thinking.

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The really small cars like the HOnda FIt and the Toyota Yaris and the GM Aveo are piling up on dealer lots as the price of gasoline drops to $2 a gallon from last summer's $4 a gallon. At February end 2009 Honda had 22191 Fits on dealer lots enough to last 125 days at the current sales rate, and Toyota had enough Yaris subcompacts to last 175 days at the current sales rate, according to Autodata Corp. Chrysler has a 205 day supply of the Dodge Caliber, and GM 427 days of Aveo cars. Honda Civics are also piling up. Price shifts and shifts in consumer attention and buying behaviour makes it difficult to plan ahead. The American carmakers have shifted plants to smaller and midsize cars after seeing the disastrous drop in the sales of larger vehicles in the third and fourth quarters of 2008. Now government policy is to mandate fuel efficiency standards, there is talk of agasoline tax, and even the current numbers shows ashift away from the SUV's and larger vehicles of the past. Ford's sales analyst Pipas says that over the 5 months ending February 2009 sales of small cars totaled 718,000. This was down 28% over the same period in 2008, but small cars grew to 18.4% of the total market, up 2.1 points from the year earlier period. Part of this is that overall the market has declined much more than 28%. This also shows that policy in an industry-government partnership will have to show the way that is best for the US, to ensure that oil prices don't go up the way they did, when consumption at the pump was excesssive and fuel standards lax. This should also be done in a partnership with other countries like China and India to ensure that technologies are available worldwide to reduce fuel consumption and promote fuel efficiency, as keeping consumption per passenger for each mile travelled as low as possible will take pressure off the oil price. It would make automobile transportation feasible for a rapidly urbanizing Asia, and by reducing the pressure on price that urbanization and motorization in Asia would bring, help moderate oil prices for western countries. ...

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Reflecting the volatile nature of the global economy with systemic risks remaining, impact of sharp cuts in spending, and the danger of oil prices exceeding $150 with a mideast crisis, the IMF provided a wide range of possibilities around its basic forecast. The IMF says it expects the global economy to grow 3.5% in 2012, up 0.2% from a Jan. forecast, and a forecast of 4.1% for 2013. But the IMF says this depends on the eurozone crisis, which could take off 2% from global output and 3.5% from output in the eurozone if things went wrong in Europe. Higher oil prices above $165 with supply disruptions after Iranian sanctions are another danger. Its forecast for Europe is 0.3% contraction in 2012 and 0.9% growth in 2013. Because of the risks in the outlook the IMF cautions countries from cutting spending too quickly, and says the best approach is to reduce deficits gradually over the long term and not to move too fast in the short term. This word of caution applies to Spain, the UK, France and Germany. To maintain enough funding in a crisis the IMF plans to increase its lending capacity from $380 billion by an additional $280 billion, with pledges of $60 billion from Japan, $26 billion from the Nordic countries, and $200 from other eurozone countries. ...

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The new administration of Lopez Obrador takes the first step in its efforts to to end the rampant corruption in Mexico that has affected previous governments, in this story from the WSJ.  Lobrador campaigned on this issue and won an overwhelming mandate. Mexico's finance ministry is conducting an investigation into dealings of the steel maker Ahmsa in the sale of a fertilizer plant to Pemex during the period when Mr. Lozoya was CEO of Pemex.  Mr. Lozoya led Pemex from 2012 with the election of President Nieto of the PRI party to 2015 when he was replaced as CEO as Pemex finances suffered and Pemex failed to anticipate a fall in oil prices.  Pemex paid $475 million for the fertilizer plant. Mexico's government says the plant was worth about $50 million. The Brazilian company Odebrecht is also involved in the transactions, according to this report in the WSJ. Ahmsa is struggling to operate under court approved restructuring. Twenty years ago it defaulted on $1.8 billion of debt. Similar problems have plagued countries in other parts of the world. In Malaysia a new government campaigned on this issue with a 90 year old Mahathir Mohamed returning to head the new government  following the election.  ...

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On the dangers facing Nigeria as the issue of transition to a post Obasanjo administration is faced. The question is whether Obasanjo continues for a third term by revising the constitution, or arranges a worthy successor to continue his policies and help establish democratic institutions and processes in Nigeria. The issue is important for Nigeria's future and that of the whole of Africa. Unrest in the Niger Delta where oil is produced is also a concern, as well as the need for better resource distribution and much needed development in Nigeria.

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The ECB stands ready to act with the unanimous support of its 25 member governing policy, says Mario Draghi, president of the ECB. Draghi said that "if oil feeds into other prices, that could generate exactly what we want to avoid, namely a spiralling downward phenomenon" for wages and prices. Mark Carney of the Bank of England, says he will see "how things evolve." The U.S. Federal Reserve might slow planned rate increases in 2016, if inflation remains well below the target of 2%, and conditions indicate adverse effect on the economy.

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Romney promises to focus on everyday concerns of jobs, family, and budget deficits with his 5 step plan to revive the economy. He says he will not raise taxes on the middle class. The 5 step plan is to make America energy independent by making full use of domestic oil and gas resources, create jobs and provide skills for new jobs, make trade work for America, support small businesses with fewer regulations and smaller tax burden and smaller burden of healthcare, and reduce the deficit. His plan he says will create 12 million new jobs.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve's forecast for the American economy is for growth in GDP of 2.2%-2.7% for 2012, wih unemployment of 8.2-8.5% by the end of 2012. The Commerce Dept. estimates for GDP growth are 3.0 percent annual rate for the 4th quarter 2011. Fed chairman Bernanke remains cautious about the economic prospects for 2012. Higher oil prices are expected to push inflation above the 2.0% Fed target for 2012. Bernanke's description of the recovery in early 2012 is that it is "uneven and modest" and unlikely to improve much for unemployment.

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This WSJ editorial on Muhammadu Buhari, the newly elected president of Nigeria, welcomes the peaceful transition to a new government in Nigeria. This comes at a time when Nigeria faces a crisis, with the Boko Haram insurgency in the north east and the decline in oil revenues, compounding the worsening economic troubles from corruption and failure to build infrastructure. It also reminds readers about Buhari's role as military dictator for 20 months in the 1980's, and the need for a peaceful transition in four years if he fails to deliver on promises.

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ECB executive board member Peter Praet, says that the oil price drop could mean negative inflation for a large part of 2015. He told German financial newspaper Borsen Zeitung, that inflation could be lower than the 0.7% forecast by ECB economists. The risk is that businesses would be reluctant to invest in such an environment. Praet said the danger is that businesses and households would reduce their long term growth expectations and adapt to low growth and low inflation. For the ECB the question will be has it done enough to avoid this.

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With 80% of its exports going to the U.S. the growth rate and jobs in Mexico are seeing the impact Finance Minister Carstens expects no growth in 2009. As Mexico's finances are in better shape than in past recessions there is room for some stimulus projects by Petroleos Mexicanos, the government oil company, by auctioning 2 highway projects, for expanding unemployment benefits, and giving $150 million in aid to industries hit by the credit crisis. About 250,000 manufacturing jobs were lost in the last few months of 2008.

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General Petraeus's efforts and some success in curbing the insurgency in Iraq and Maliki's efforts to build a strong central government run up against Kurdish desire for a loose federation and differences about how to handle the oil resources in the north. Things could get worse and a conflict occur if Maliki asserts control over the Kurdish areas in the north. The eventual picture after the Americans leave is not clear inspit of Petraeus efforts and a partition of sorts could end up happening between the Kurds, Shiites and Sunnis.

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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Paul Krugman points out in the NYT that September 2022 high inflation numbers for core inflation excluding energy and food of 6.6% on annualized basis, is still not a good way to measure actual inflation. This is because housing costs as measured by the core inflation index used by the Labor Department are represented by housing rental costs. The rental costs have a time lag in this index and after a sharp spike are now cooling off. Add to this slowing economies and recessions in European economies and the situation suggests that the economy and inflation may be moderating more than expected. Additional factors are that the effects of sharp prior 2 increases in interest rates by the Fed of 0.75% and a third of 0.75% expected soon, are still not fully realized in the economy. This view was also expressed by experts in the WSJ. It was widely perceived that the high inflation that we are seeing is a result of temporary factors such as the war in Ukraine, food and oil supply constraints, supply chain bottlenecks, new adjustments to manufacturing at home after covid. As these factors ease and after the Fed's action to raise interest rates, slowing economies in Europe adjusting to climate change actions,  the moderating effects on the economy of the costs in switching to renewable energy also a factor, this high inflation has prospects of moderating. The successful switch to renewables particularly solar, and better agricultural practices, could set along term trajectory of moderate inflation in costs of energy and food supplies.  ...

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This is a big desicion by the Obama administration, and has global implications for the amount of oil consumed and the emissions discharged. The Obama administration will introduce one national standard for automile emissions and mileage standards, replacing the patchwork of standards and skipping over the challenges to the California standards by using those standards to set the national rules. The rules take effect in 2012. It will create a new national standard for a car and light truck fleet in the USA, that is 40% cleaner and more fuel efficient by 2016 than it is now, with a new average of 35.5 miles per gallon. The current national standard is 25 miles per gallon, and this standard has fallen way behind the Japanese and the Europeans. The Europeans went through their battles for fuel efficiency a few years ago with auto industry resistance, and this was finally settled with tougher standards, giving the European industry advantages in technology over the Americans. The American car industry stalled higher standards, and what standards were passed were whittled down by heavy lobbying in Congress. As a result a battle raged between those interested in conservation and the environment and the Detroit car industry, especially in a deteriorating global environment for this type of prolific oil consumption on American highways. This lack of foresight on the part of Detroit carmakers, and their management, accelerated their financial collapse in 2008 and 2009, as large car and truck sales collapsed. That this tough new standard of 40% improvement in 2016, would in fact not have been possible without this fiinancial collapse and turning to the government for a bailout - with the entire board of General Motors being replaced- is one of the ironies of this situation. This decision will almost certainly accelerate the development of smaller models, and bring the kind of attention to them that will give them the quality and features and comfort to make them command higher prices and become profitable, as is the case in Europe. For too long the American small car became synonymous with being a lesser car in many dimensions of design, quality, comfort and performance, so that it became a cheap car that you upgraded from to a larger car as you became affluent. It had been that way, but did not have to be that way after the world had changed. And the larger models like the pickup trucks and large cars are more likely to be phased out with the new regulations. This will also bring a `new sanity to oil prices, as the reduced consumption in the US will accomodate the increased consumption in India from the small cars like the Tata Nano which look set to sell in the millions, and still keep oil affordable for tight budgets worldwide. In this sense it is a victory for global good sense. For President Obama this is a personal quest, as he co-sponsored 2 bills in 2006, during this second year in the US Senate, one to raise fuel economy standards, and the other to encourage the use of alternative fuels....

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Crude oil prices and the crisis with Turkey and Iran push oil prices over $90. Cutoff of oil to Turkey from Iraq is possible.