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Burning of stubble from the rice harvest to clear land for the next year's cultivation in the Punjab creates 25% of the pollution over New Delhi. Automobile pollution adds more pollutants. This toxic mix of pollutants is trapped by the cooler air during the winter over much of northern India. At one point the pollution index reached 643 in New Delhi, by comparison it was hard to breather with an index of 116 from the wildfires in Canada's northern region that sent smoke all the way into Washington D.C. 

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Inspirational talk given to Prime Minister's Office Staff on June 10, 2024, by Indian PM Narendra Modi. In this video Modi tells staff about the nature of the PM's office as a catalytic agent for creating new enthusiasm and energy for the nation's development efforts. Before 2014 prime ministers before him considered this as a power center, says Modi. He tells staff that the development effort was hard work for achieving the vision of a modern developed nation Vikshit Bharat 2047. That this was work 24 hours a day 7 days a week to accomplish goals set to meet the aspirations of 1400 million people in India. He says three points to remember was that work had to be done with concentration on the goal without getting distracted and determination to achieve it, second to have the character to do this in real life setting priorities and tasks. Third, the frame of mind that is always learning, always studying, always acquiring new knowledge about the tasks ahead.  ...

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The current economic expansion in the U.S. in April 2014 is at 58 months from the beginning of recovery in 2009. In this exceptional account Josh Zombrun of WSJ compares the current expansion to previous expansions since 1950, with the views of experts such as Stan Hall of the NBER committee, which studies turning points. This expansion is forecast to go for 90 months into 2016 by the U.S. Federal Reserve, and 102 months into 2017 by the CBO. Sooner or later, says Stan Hall, some adverse unpredictable event takes place that ends the expansion. So far the expansion has been slow and protracted, as predicted by economists Reinhart and Rogoff from previous financial crises in the last century, giving it room to grow as corporate earnings continue to improve. Fed chairwoman's sense of slack in the economy also provides room for employment and incomes to grow in the later stages of the expansion. This is good news for the emerging market economies such as India and China, and for the European Union, faced with slowing growth. So how does this expansion compare with earlier ones. The expansion of the 1991-2001 of the tech boom was 120 months, 1961-1969 of the Sixties 106 months, 1982-1990 of the Reagan era 92 months. The controversial one on shaky foundations is the recent housing boom 2001-2007 of 73 months ending in a huge bust with the 2008 financial crisis. The shorter expansions are the 1975-1980 Post-Vietnam one for 58 months, and the 1970-1973 spurt before the OPEC price surge. Figures are from the NBER, CBO and the Federal Reserve's Summary of Economic Projections....

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The work of key Ministries in India is tracked by the Hindusthan Times in March 2018 showing the progress of the Modi government. At the Defense Ministry  a major effort is underway to promote the defense sector to reduce the defense imports of $100 billion over the last decade, and to make this a major jobs generating sector. The Foreign Ministry is pursuing the China-India dialogue, and efforts to tackle the trade deficit with China of $51 billion. The Ministry of Education is working on giving universities autonomy from the Universities Grant Commission so that first tier universities can plan their own development, hire faculty and plan for the future without UGC approval. Jawaharlal Nehru University and the University of Hyderabad, first tier institutions have autonomy from UGC under this effort. 

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With an extraordinary sentiment for China's people Joe Stilwell showed America as different from the colonial powers of which Japan was a part with its occupation of Korea and China in 1930-1945. America should recognize and be proud of men like  Joe Stilwell who commanded all American Forces in China and the Asian sector in World War II. Such forced labor as shown in Tuchman's book "Stilwell and the American Experience in China," was never seen in its human aspect. Stilwell was the first American to understand the ordinary Chinese people struggles of that period. He participated in their struggles, once even hid himself in Chinese freight trains in the 1930's to collect intelligence about Japanese intentions in northern China.  The war conditions for the Imperial Japanese war effort railway built through dense jungle between Rangoon and Bangkok in 1942-43. Tamil Indian and Indonesian laborers who died working on the railway are remembered here. 250,000 romusha or forced laborers of whom 90,000 died were Asian Indian. A much smaller number were Britishers and European POW's 12,000 in number immortalized in Bridge over the River Kwai, a movie about this period. Till now most of the Indian laborers remained obscure like so many millions obscure in the history books about the colonial period for Indonesia and India, with a population now numbering 1.7 billion people in the world. China with 1.2 billion people suffered the same fate in bombings by Imperial Japanese forces that rampaged across China in the war years. Such forced labor as shown in Tuchman's book "Stilwell and the American Experience in China," was never seen in its human aspect. Stilwell was the first American to understand the ordinary Chinese people struggles of that period. He participated in their struggles, once even hid himself in Chinese freight trains in the 1930's to collect intelligence about Japanese intentions in northern China.  ...

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Millets are small seeded grass grown since ancient times in India and Africa that have the advantage during climate change of being resilient to drought, adverse weather patterns, require less water, and provide high nutritional value. In India known as bajri and ragi, in Sri Lanka as Kurakkan, and in America as finger millet, these ancient grains similar to ones in Eastern Europe that also lost popularity, were during the Industrial Revolution replaced by wheat and rice over most of the planet. The return of hope with a path for climate change action, a path out of inflation, also includes a path to better health through a transformation in food habits and in agriculture for Europe, the US, Asia, Africa and Latin America. Here Lyrarc brings to readers the UN Exhibition at the delegates entrance in New York Feb 15-17 that showcased millets. Dr.  Arun Nagpal says we often feel that healthy products involve a compromise in taste- "However millet products carefully crafted and combined with other ingredients can bring taste and value to almost every world cuisine today. From flours to breads, cookies to pizzas, pastas, cakes, breakfast cereals, smoothies and so on." He emphasizes that millets don't have to be forced into our diets but can easily be integrated into an existing style or pattern across ages and cultures, across cuisines and nations, and across the dietary preferences. ...

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How financing for ambitious infrastructure and Atman Nirbhar Bharat (self-reliant economy) development is being financed in India is explained here. The central bank acting as debt manager for the government of India is pushing government securities to trade in lots of 5 crores or more, seven crores being about 1 million dollars. This is now being traded among commercial entities. These are essentially 3 month, 6 month, and 12 month treasury bills, and long term debt instruments for the government that run to maturities of 5 to 40 years. Retail investors are being provided opportunities to participate in a different pathway. Currently institutional investors such as banks, mutual funds, insurance companies are major participants.The government needs 1.2 million crores or $175 billion from the financial markets to fund its ambitious capital expenditures for 2021 financial year. To do this it turns to financing such as government securities. Higher demand for capital leads to higher interest rates. The RBI and the government want to keep interest rates down and one way its to broaden the base of investors for government securities which it is now doing. ...

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There is a 82% jump of oil at sea in 2025 as China and India stay away from sanctioned oil from Russia Iran. About 1.4 billion barrels or 15% of supply out at sea on tankers by December 2025. When Modi met Putin he offered to continue supply of oil. India says Jamieson Greer in a recent interview with Sarah Burns, is not buying Russian oil and negotiations are ongoing so that a deal with US on dropping tariffs is reached in the very near future. This oil at sea is keeping prices of Brent crude at about $66 in December 2025. DJT is referring to prices down for oil, to gas pump prices in US states having dropped to $1.99 a gallon to show progress in tackling the affordability crisis in the US at a rally in Pennsylvania.

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The Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research in India, Suman Bery, says that of all the countries in the G-20, India is least dependent on export led growth. This is why India gains from a reactivation of the American economy. This view was expressed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during President Obama's visit to India. Singh supported the Fed's move to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities.

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$469 million in immediate access to Bangladesh from the IMF and $221 billion for climate change action agenda in Bangladesh as part of $4.7 bailout by the IMF. This plus an addition $1.3 billion from development partners such as India gives Bangladesh time to sort out problems in exchange rate management, manage remitttances from overseas, and increase exports. Import compression and other action helped Bangladesh to generate a $2 billion surplus in the first half of the 2023-2024 fiscal year after large current account deficits in two previous years of the pandemic. 

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Ideas for a two state solution are revived in 2023. The previous efforts that went astray are shown in this report in The Washington Post. It would have to be creative and bring together sentiment across the whole populations in the region that become weary of conflict, and through the efforts of the US, EU, China, India and Russia, Arab states that see the potential for and need to focus their efforts on development for their people following the pandemic- without the kind of conflicts in the Middle East that have diverted vital resources needed for development.

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WSJ looks at the 75 years of the US Saudi Arabia relationship that started when US president Franklin Delano Roosevelt met Saudi king Ibn Saud at Bitter Creek, Egypt, on a US Navy destroyer ship in 1945. It has gone through many phases over this period and mainly involved the Saudi kingdom maintaining its supply of oil to the US and Western Europe. This relationship went through an oil embargo during tense periods of Israeli Palestine conflict as in 1983 with an oil embargo that pushed up oil prices. What is different this time is the situation in Yemen where Iranian supported Houthi rebels near the border with Saudi Arabia are engaged in a conflict with the Saudis. Democratic administrations under first Obama and Biden today support reaching a deal with Iran on nuclear weapons development and limit US military support for the war in Yemen. The Saudis for their part are not keen on a regional war and turned down efforts by president Trump to respond to attacks from Yemen. Mr. Biden's envoy has arranged for a deal to reduce tensions between the Houthis in Yemen and Saudis. The diplomatic impasse in relations stems from the Kashoggi incident and president Biden's concern for the human rights situation in Saudi Arabia. Other factors making relations difficult are the economic interests of the two countries diverging. The relationship Roosevelt started in 1945 has changed in its fundamental character. Oil supplies for imports into the US is no longer a factor for the US which was the original interest of president Roosevelt in Saudi Arabia. This changed by 2015 as the US fracking industry enabled US to become self sufficient in oil and able to supply LNG to western Europe. Instead of the US Saudi oil now goes to China. Russian oil also goes to China as its industry expanded with American investment. This has led to a new Saudi relationship with China which has changed the dynamic of the American Saudi relationship. Some of the new aspects of this can also be seen in Saudi relationship with South Asia. Saudi ties have increased with India and India in 2021 was the first country to provide vaccine supplies to Saudi Arabia. Saudis, Qatar, United Arab Emirates are building relationships with India as a close neighbor in the region. Relationships are in some ways improving in the Asian region compared to the period when oil was simply exchanged as a commodity for defense supplies from the US without regard to cultural, educational and other changes in Saudi society. In a sense US and Western Europe paid little attention to the huge democracy of over 1 billion people right in the middle of Asia and followed policies that led to major investments in China and little or no investment in India, and without realizing it followed a policy that the British had pursued in the British Empire of treating different communities and religions as separate as opposed to one community of people in South Asia that were engaged in modernizing, building infrastructure and changing centuries old ways of living. The British Empire was sustained by this kind of thinking, and as long as Indians were complacent and lacked the will to make their aspirations for a better life and infrastructure for modernization this kind of thinking prevailed. The economic crises in Asia have reinforced the idea that there is one community entirely focused on development and modernization in South Asia. The people in South Asia care most about the cost of living and the infrastructure and services for the quality of life they live and their children can aspire for- same in European Union that chose the Greens and chancellor Scholz, and same in the US that chose president Biden to invest infrastructure and people, the same in China and the same in India and the rest of Asia. This is the situation that the US and Britain, and the European Union are now beginning to learn and adapt to that is a constructive aspect of these changes to rebuild the connections and supply chains that were sorely neglected before now. ...

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Glen McGrath the fast bowler from Australia with 563 wickets the previous record for fast bowler in cricket compares Anderson of England to Sachin Tendulkar in India. The only other bowlers in this league are Anil Kumble and Shane Warne. Stuart Broad who got his 500th wicket in Test cricket says Anderson, 38 years, has got better with age and has always inspired him.

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See the important link to Keith Johnson, 7/9/2007, WSJ, on the economics of wind energy, suppliers, and the industry in the US and Europe, and the shortage of turbines because of some 800 parts that go into the turbines and blades making it a complicated supplier issue to get more turbines. We can make only more turbines as fast as we can access the last of some 8000 components says a Vestas executive. Windmill generated electricity was only 0.4% of the electricity generated in the US compared to 0.1% for solar and 0.4% for geothermal but of the new energy added in the US in 2007 it was 30% of the new energy generating capacity added. So it has a disproportionate share of the increase in generating capacity starting from an insignificant base. Its a new industry but with many companies the largest being Vestas of Denmark, GE Energy, Nordex of Germany and Accoiona of Spain. Germany, the US, Spain India, and China are countries at the forefron of the wind energy business. Because the business is relatively new manufacturers were not providing the installation and maintenance required in emerging market countries in 1995 when Suzlon which had powered its yarn business in Surat, Gujarat with 2 wind energy turbines from Vestas entered the business seeing an opportunity. Mr Tanti of Rajkot, Gujarat, Suzlon's founder saw the opportunity and used European firms to design his turbines and blades and provided energy to Bajaj Auto and large Indian companies that have an erratic supply of electricity because of chronic electricity shortages. Starting with a tax break which allowed Suzlon to deduct windmill costs against its sales tax bill enacted in 1999 and retracted in 2002 Suzlon took advantage of lower manufacturing costs in India. Its main plant is in Pondicherry, India. By 2002 sales had increased to $131 million in India from $32 million in 2000. The company entered the US market in 2003 and in 2004 with the boomin stock market in India Citigroup took a 9% stake in Suzlon for $22 million. By 2005 Suzlon because of lower manufacturing costs had margns of20% compared to 8% for European companies and Suzlon raised $340 million in an IPO. With loans from Barclays and Deutsche Bank Suzlon bought European parts makers Hansen Transmission in 2006 and set up a factory in Tianjin, India. Early on in the 1990's it had set up an R&D center using engineers in Germany of a supplier company in wind energy Sudwind that had exited the business, this R&D center now designed its largest turbine for US and European markets of 2.1 megawatts and blades 50 yards in length. Today Tanti and Suzlon are faced with problems accessing the world class technology of the western companies as its technology has not kept up with the technological advances especially in addressing the needs of western markets. It has about 8% of the US market and about $1.8 billion in global sales. Its pricing to Edison Energy in 2006 for 1.2 megawatt turbines was 20% below European and American manufacturers. Its latest designs have flaws because Edison Energy of Irvine , California, has seen cracks in the blades at 3 windmill sites in the midwest USA and Suzlon has withdrawn 1251 blades, the majority of the ones sold in the US. Deere and Company another customer has experienced the same problem. And even though it has moved to acquire technology by taking over 33.6% of REpower which has advanced technology and makes 5 megawatt turbines. its mired in its efforts to get the blueprints of advanced designs from REpower because German law considers minority shareholders like Suzlon as competitors, other shareholders Areva of France and Martifer of Portugal have to be bought out and minority shareholders also bought out before Suzlon can access the designs. Speed, funding, tax breaks, and timing to attract capital, and most of all insight and courage to see a growing opportunity from its own experience of using two 2.1 megawatt turbines from Denmark's Vestas, and looking deeper into problems with maintenance and support in Asia and lack of technology for homegrown development that hamstrung development of energy alternatives in dire and chronic electricity short Indian companies, this has helped bring windpower to India and a new company in a new industry from scratch. ...

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The Soviet withdrawal from Afghanistan in 1989 was a point at which the country could have made a search for peace iwth the help of foreign powers India, Pakistan, U.S. which supported the mujhadeen and Russia. The missed opportunity under Reagan led to 40 years of uninterrupted war at immense human cost to the people of Afghanistan, and financial and human cost to the U.S. with its involvement in the country's wars. A lecturer at the University of Amsterdam looks at the missed opportunities from the past for a peaceful settlement with the help of foreign powers. This happens as the Taliban meet in Moscow with other parties in the dispute.  A missed perspective relates to the origins of the problem in the India- Pakistan conflict and the history of Afghanistan in the colonial period. Afghanistan was seen as a buffer by Pakistan after the 1971 war with India that created Bangladesh from the former Eastern part of Pakistan. As a result both the Russians and the Americans were embroiled in wars and passions that had little to do with ideologies and  more with feudalism, factions and religious conflicts. Much national treasure in human life and lost opportunities for development at home on the side of foreign powers was the cost of the involvement.      ...

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This look at China and leaders Mao, Chou-en-lai, Deng, Xi Jinping through the lens of the Hoover Institution series on authoritarianism "The Party's Interest Come First," by Hoover research fellow Turgian makes the same errors as is evident from expert at Oxford University/ Kennedy School Rana Shantasil Mitter of Indian descent. Which is to see China as an academic, not by immersing oneself in China of 1890- 1950 into the lives of China's millions of ordinary people. And how is one to immerse oneself into these lives. One can do this through the eyes of General Stilwell who loved and immersed himself in China like it could be said no other American of that period in Barbara Tuchman's well researched account of this China of 1890-1950.  One clue to this is also that Tuchman unlike Torgian or Mitter by a long shot is the only writer who met Mao in Beijing in the 1970's. In 1971 she met Mao and made observations on the lives of the people in "Notes from China- If Mao had met Roosevelt in 1945." As a result of Tuchman's account of Stilwell's personal experience of China since 1900's being lost to most Americans, there is no concept of what China had experienced with the gradual collapse of China's economy and politcal structures, its defense as China, like India, and Asia as a whole failed to experience the opening up to science and technology and modern ways of thought since 1600. The results were catastrophic for the Chinese people and for the people of India leading to economic destruction on a scale unknown in history and lives shortened and reduced by poverty.  ...

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The main lines of the Message to Congress by the US president in 2025 related to flood of illegal immigration, and illegal fentanyl flows with deaths of Americans in the most vulnerable neighborhoods across 51 states over 12 years, 490,000 deaths, more than Vietnam. "The media and our friends in the Democrat Party kept saying we needed new legislation to secure the border—but it turned out that all we really needed was a new president.” As it turns out the legislation Biden with Republicans led by Senator Lankford negotiated in Feb 2024 did not have the strong action taken in the first 100 days to deter illegal immigration and remove illegal immigrants endangering safety in American neighborhoods. That legislation did not have provisions to bring illegal fentanyl flows into the US to an end with strong action including tariffs on CMC countries Canada, Mexico and China responsible for the fentanyl flows into the US. Transgender was another issue addressed in the speech with DJT clearly stating that their only two genders and against mutilation of bodies, with trust in God about the gender God placed us in as best for us. Other issues were about tariffs action going into effect on reciprocal tariffs on April 2 with all nations including India, Europe, China, Japan, South Korea. DJT cited India for high tariffs, South Korea with 4 times American tariffs, and European nations. The goal was to ensure a level playing field for the US to compete- "what they charge us, we charge them." As explained in an earlier article in the WSJ reciprocal tariffs in the world context mean commodities products would not have price increases for the US consumer, smartphones autos would increase but this would be temporary as these nations play fairly and create a level playing field, and these products manufacturing is shifted to the US. This would mean growth for US auto industry and smartphones coming from inside the US and from India offsetting concentration of production in China. Apple has told the president it will start making inside America investing hundreds of billions in the US from now on. ...

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Methane is a greenhouse gas that can warm the atmosphere 80 times as fast as carbon dioxide in the short term. Methane leaks out of oil and natural gas wells and is produced in burning of oil, natural gas and coal. It is also produced by livestock and landfills. US president Biden and 90 countries have pledged to control methane gas emissions at COP26 in Glasgow by signing a methane pledge. The methane pledge is for reducing methane emissions by 30% by 2030. US, EU, Nigeria, Indonesia have signed the pledge. China, Russia, India have still to sign the pledge.

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China is increasing use of domestic coal and reducing Australian coal imports in an effort to increase energy security and become self sufficient in coal. Spot price of thermal coal used to generate electricity is expected to drop by 39% in 2019. Coking coal used for steel production will decline by 38% as China uses more costly local coal and the steel industry in Europe, India and the U.S. lowers production with lower coal demand. The world consumed less coal in 2019 over 2018. Largely from less coal used in electricity generation which dropped by 2.5%.

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The Biden administration has limited the conflict in the Middle East through maintaining relations with the government in Tehran. Now more than ever there is a need for the kind of stable well thought out policy in the long term interests of all nations including the US, Europe, China and India for a peaceful solution to conflicts- this is being pursued by the Biden administration. It is possible because president Biden has focused on economic growth for all and extracted America from the entanglements in the Middle East in Iraq and Afghanistan that have undone previous presidents and US development.

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Supreme Court of India supports Posco's and Vedanta Resources projects in Orissa state in India. These are large projects for the aluminium and steel industry in India for instance Posco's project is for 12 million tons of steel and for developmet of a port in Orissa.

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Was Russia better off in 2021 than after the invasion of Ukraine. Was it better for upward mobility, health, openness of the economy and growth, and standards of living. Was the US perceived as a hegemon when it also lacked control of its own companies that preferred to invest elsewhere and ignored US workers for a long time. This report in the WSJ asks whether it is not true that not just Russia, but the US, the EU, China, India, other large nations faced a world order that was in many ways difficult, not to their liking, and in some ways posed risks for their countries. 

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Toyota's goal is to remain the preeminent automobile manufacturer in emerging markets and the IMV is part of its strategy for achieving this goal. The IMV series for emerging markets, with one million in manufacturing capacity coming off a single platform to lower costs, is designed to meet local needs from a price standpoint and rough road conditions. Sales of one million off of a single platform is an achievement only Toyota will have achieved. A minivan, a sport utility vehicle and 3 pickup trucks are all made from a single chassis, with localized production since 2004. The IMV series is expected to account for 10% of the 9.58 vehicle sales goal for 2012. CEO Akio Toyoda plans to increases sales in emerging markets to 50% of total sales by 2015, up from 40% in 2011. IMV vehicles are made in 11 emerging market countries- in Argentina, India, South Africa and Thailand, and are sold as the Hilux pickup, the Fortuner SUV, and the Innova minivan. Over the years Toyota has transferred more of the design and development to emerging market countries to meet local preferences and reduce the effects of a strong yen, leaving only core components to be designed and manufactured in Japan. As it recovers from supply disruptions due to floods in Thailand and the tsunami in Japan, Toyota is planning on sales of 9.58 million in 2012, a steep climb of 21% from the 7.95 million sold in 2011....

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Abbott Labs acquisition of Piramal Healthcare for $3.7 billion gives it 7% of the Indian market. Acccording to IMS Health emerging markets drug sales for 17 countries went up from $42 billion in 2000 to 126 billion in 2009. Anlysts expect 70% of global growth to come from these areas in next 5 years.

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This report in the BBC on the nuclear threat in the Ukraine war looks at the subject of nuclear conflict and what this means. It points out that China has no first use nuclear doctrine and Russia being dependent on China's support in the Ukraine conflict as a deterrent. It also sees the inner circle of a Russian and American president internally in conflict over nuclear weapons use in any situation.

The occasion of the discussion in the US and Europe on this issue and internally in other countries including China and India this week show the need for a complete rethinking of where we are and how we have come here. Much of the world- billions of people in Asia and Latin America, Africa, North America has little to do with the conflict in one small part of the world- which makes such talk irresponsible and reckless behaviour.