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Lars Kingbeil SPD parliamentary head March 2025 negotiations with CDU head Merz for a new government in Germany following federal elections. Combined the 2 parties have 45% of the vote with the Left having 9% and the Greens 12% in Opposition and AfD having 21%. In addition Wagenknecht and FDP received 9% of the vote. About 80 percent of the German vote still went to non far right parties in a period of immigration anxiety and economic contraction. Strong action on immigration should by Merz and the CDU that was missing from Scholz and SPD, and weak economic leadership from Scholz limited by the FDP's Lindner Finance minister replaced by CDU under business friendly Merz should change Germany's situation in the next 4 years. It will making immigration issues fade by 2027 and help Germany's economy rebound with investments in key areas.  Merkel and Merz are very different leaders. Merkel a pastor's daughter with a physics background lacks the business background in capital markets of Merz and the ability to understand the mood and thinking of Germans in the industrial west and south of the country and in Bavaria's Munich region (CSU). ...

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Harold Thibault of Le Monde France says, the rise of China in the past 50 years means the US is wondering whether engaging China turned out be something different than what Clinton anticipated when letting China join WTO without strict rules for a level playing field, and the Bush- Obama years when nothing was done to protect American manufacturing in small towns across America from the ravages of so called "free trade" that was not free, and the effort of American business to integrate its operations with China as single supplier without any guidance from government, behaviour that started with "American triumphalism" of the 1970's and 1990's, that left America with a destroyed industrial base. The Reagan wars that went on with Bush in the Middle East and South Asia and were continued through the Obama years allowed not just the waste of American resources and energy, it also provided a distraction from vital issues of the industrial base in manufacturing and technologies. Only DJT and Biden had the courage to end these wars and focus on the real issues facing the Nation and provide a continuity across three administrations from 2016-2029 to restore America to its past. ...

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Even though ambitious targets are being set by the government raising from 50 million to 80 million in 3 years the target for new LPG connections to shift rural households from firewood to natural gas use, more needs to be done. The head of the Economic Advisory Council to Prime Minister Modi of India. Bibek Debroy, asks questions about the Ujjwalla program in India to shift rural homes from firewood to gas use. Is the fixed subsidy of Rs 1600 enough? Is a 5kg cylinder what the market wants instead of the 14.2 kg cylinder? Are there externalities that favor use of firewood? Will rural households replace the cylinders at this subsidy level because the costs are still high?  The PMUY, or Pradhan Mantri Ujjwalla Yojana was launched in India in 2016 in Ballia, Uttar Pradesh under the Modi administration. The target for LPG gas use for firewood using households was 15 million in the first year and 50 million for the next 3 years. The government pays Rs. 1600 subsidy for a new connection reimbursing the oil company making the connection. The refill and cost of stove, is the rural household's responsibility. Separate guidelines were made for urban households. The government website mygov.in shows 41 million households have used Ujjwalla to get LPG and stop firewood use. The new target of 80 million means the goal post is moving higher. The 2011 Census is cited showing the rural household use moved up from 6% to 12% by 2011. For All India it was from 17% to 29%. About 100 million rural households use firewood, 62.5% of all rural households in 2011. A big issue is how this affects the health of women using firewood for cooking, and who collects this firewood. Firewood is still cheaper says Debroy, and there are negative externalities associated with firewood not understood enough. Changing the face of rural India is a project in motion, with new issues to tackle, new hurdles to overcome, every bit of progress showing how much more needs to be done. ...

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The decline in the U.S. television advertising market accelerates in 2015. Viacom Inc. (Nickeodeon and MTV) sees a decline in TV domestic advertising revenue of 9% for the 2nd quarter of 2015, as its TV ratings decline. CBS Corp and Disney (ESPN) see a 3% decline. 21st century Fox with FOX network and shows such as "American Idol" and "The Following," sees a large decline in its television ad revenue of 14%. In the week of August 4-6, 2015, the share prices of these media companies were hit hard. Viacom shares declined by 21%, Fox 13%, Disney 11%. Earlier gains for digital ad revenue were from print, now the gains are at the expense of television budgets. Companies such as Allstate, Mondelez, Wendy's, MasterCard, Honda, P&G, are shifting to digital from television to follow millenials. Experts at ad buying firms say advertisers are tracking young consumers and following them to digital platforms. Viacom's Nickelodeon and MTV are hit particularly hard by the growing shift to kids shows on Netflix and to You Tube, and Amazon Prime Instant Video. Linear TV and interruptions for advertising is also accelerating the move, when other ad free or less advertising options are now easily available. By 2018 the digital ad spending will overtake television ad spending, digital getting $83 billion and television dropping to $78.6 billion....

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Adly Mansour, a judge with the Supreme Constitutional Court in Egypt, is appointed by the military as president of Egypt. He was to take office as Chief Justice before the June 2013 protests in Egypt intervened to delay this. On July 3, 2013 he was sworn in as president before the Supreme Court. Mansour is one of two judges selected by president Morsi. He is a graduate of Cairo University, and studied public affairs and management in Paris before joining the judicial sytem in 1977. His decisions as judge went against both Mubarak and Morsi, showing his independent position as a judge on the Supreme Court. The judiciary is now taking an important role in Egypt similar to the role it has played in Pakistan, another Muslim country adopting democratic forms of governance after decades of coups and military rule since the 1950's. The larger Muslim countries in the Middle East, Turkey, Pakistan, Iran, and Egypt are faced with the challenge of balancing the demands of modernization with tradition, the demands of educated urban population with the more devout Islamist rural population, and creating stable transitions in democratically elected government. Islamists such as president Erdogan in Turkey who described western democratic forms of government as a train to get to a destination have still to take in to account the need to incorporate opposing secular views in governance. In this sense Turkey is not the model for governance as it once appeared for Egypt, Pakistan Iran and other Muslim countries. A new consensus in society needs to develop that respects all aspects of democratic governance including respect for the role of the opposition in a democracy, the role of an independent impartial judiciary, and the role of independent media. This will take time to develop just as it took time to develop in Europe and North America....

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Khairat el-Shatar, financial leader of the Muslim Brotherhood was nominated as the party's candidate for president in Egypt. The Muslim Brotherhood controls the newly elected parliament and the body that is writing the new constitution. It is in a struggle with the military about limiting the military's role under the new constitution. The Brotherhood sees the election of its candidate as president as important to not diluting its influence in relation to the military and other parties. Khairat has committed to following a moderate course in setting Egypt on a new path, with a focus on reviving the economy.

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Wall Street Journal reporters Walker in Berlin, Forelle in Brussels, and Meichtry in Rome, reconstruct the events during critical days after the indecision and failure to reach agreement during the July summit of eurozone countries. This took the form of intervews with leading players and over 25 policy makers. What emerges are accounts of how Germany's Angela Merkel, daughter of a Lutheran pastor, and protege of Eurozone founder, former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, handled the crisis. Merkel was widely criticized in the media for indecision. What emerges is an account of a leader who took decisive action at key moments in the crisis- leading to the formation of new governments in Greece and Italy taking action to improve finances, and negotiations with banks represented by the International Finance Corporation leading to acceptance by banks of a 50% loss on loans to Greece to reduce Greece's unsustainable debt burden. Merkel also worked with the European Central Bank's departing president Frenchman Claude Trichet and new president Italian Mario Draghi to resist French president Sarkozy's efforts to have the ECB assume responsibility for the crisis through large scale buying of Italian and Spanish bonds; which was opposed by German public opinion as a backdoor way of having German taxpayers assume responsibility for European debt. Shown are three critical moments when Merkel intervened. In October 2011, after Italian prime minister Berlusconi reneged on promises to make pension and other reforms to improve Italian finances because of political resistance. He survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote by one vote. Merkel took the lead on October 20, by directly calling Italian President Georgio Napolitano on the phone, to urge him to take action for forming a new government in Italy. The result was Napolitano talking with all political parties to form a new government, leading to the formation of a government by a non-political figure respected in Italy, former EU commissioner Mario Monti. A day earlier, on October 19, French President Sarkozy met ECB president, Trichet, at an event honoring him as departing ECB president in Frankfurt's Alte Oper concert hall. Trichet, Merkel and Sarkozy met in a side room. Sarkozy asked for decisive help from the ECB for large scale buying of Italian and Spanish bonds to lower yields, which had reached 7% on Italian bonds. Trichet responded that the ECB's charter did not allow it to finance governments, with the meeting ending in a shouting match between the two leaders. On October 21, EU and IMF inspectors warned that Greece's debt was reaching unsustainable proportions and austerity measures alone would not work, unless the bondholders, the European banks, took losses of 60% on their excessive lending to Greece. At this point France agreed to the German position arguing for this level of bondholder haircuts or losses, fearing the prospect of large future bailouts that would jeopardize France's triple AAA credit rating. The July 2011 summit accord had only provided for 10% in losses for bondholders. On October 27, at a meeting that went past midnight, Merkel and Sarkozy called IIF head Charles Dallara, who headed negotiating for the banks, to EU headquarters in Brussels. Merkel handed Dallara an agreement containing the 50% bondholder loss demand, and told Dallara- "This is the last offer." Merkel was saying banks would be left with nothing if they rejected it and Greece defaulted. Dallara called bankers and the IIF accepted Merkel's agreement. The final moment that October came on October 31, when Greece's prime minister Papandreou said he would call a referendum on the bailout provisions and austerity measures demanded by the IMF, the EU and the ECB. Bond markets reacted negatively to the announcement fearing a rejection and a Greek default. The Group of 20 leaders was meeting in Cannes, France on Nov. 2, 2011. Papandreou was asked to come to Cannes for a pre-summit meeting. Here Merkel told Papandreou- "the real question" for the referendum was, "Do you want to be in the euro, or not?" Days later Papandreou, lacking support in Greece from political parties and opposition inside his party, submitted his resignation. A non-political figure respected in Greece, former ECB vice president, Lucas Papademos, was appointed prime minister to head a Unity government. Polls after the appointment showed three fourths of Greeks said that this was "a positive step for Greece," with Papandreou's party getting only 11% support and the opposition led by Samaras about 20%. The criticism leveled at Merkel is that Germany should take responsibility for debt throughout the euro area through the issuance of eurozone bonds or the ECB buying large amount of bonds of Spain and Italy. Merkel faced strong opposition inside Germany and from the Bundesbank to this idea. The other criticism was based on austerity measures worsening the finances of Greece because of a lack of growth in the economy, which is true; yet Germany may see the situation in Greece as taking a long time to be resolved in any event because of excessive and faulty financial management. For Italy and Spain putting finances in order was a necessity, and austerity measures should lead to short term sacrifice but improve prospects for the long term by returning the economies to growth. Another criticism is the installation of governments that lack popular or electoral support. As the polls in Greece showed the Unity government there has far greater support and public opinion blames the politicians for the huge mess. In Italy, Berlusconi was widely seen as losing popular support when he resigned. And in Spain Mariano Rajoy, the newly elected prime minister, was elected with a huge majority in parliament following winning in local government elections. Merkel also held her own party, the Chrisitian Democrats together at the recent Leipzig convention. Mario Draghi, was elected with German support to head the European Central Bank. He has long argued for better management of Italian finances as head of Italy's central bank. Draghi was able to support Merkel with carefully planned and managed actions. First to reduce interest rates to support economic growth in a slowing eurozone. Following this with the ECB's Long Term Financing Operation in late December 2011, to provide unlimited loans to European banks at 1% interest for three years in exchange for a broadened list of collateral deposited at the ECB. In a final twist in this drama, Charles Dallara, who was a key negotiator for the U.S. Treasury in setting up the Brady Bonds- that converted bad Latin American government debt owed to U.S. banks in the 1980's into long term debt with large reductions in principal owed and lower interest rates. This was in exchange for guaranteed repayment with 30 year U.S. zero coupon bonds. Dallara was now a negotiator for the banks to reduce the chance of the very same bondholder haircuts that he had negotiated in an earlier period to solve the Latin American debt crisis. Other players in the drama were Axel Weber, head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, who resigned after strong and outspoken opposition to the ECB's large scale purchase of bonds of Greece, Italy and Spain. Jens Weidmann, his protege, who replaced him. And Jurgen Stark, German representative at the ECB, who also resigned in opposition to Germany assuming responsibility for eurozone debt. ...

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The BJP Party wins 25 seats in the Kasmir legislative assembly, and the Kashmir People's Democratic Party led by Mufti Mohammad Sayeed wins 28 seats. Mr. Sayeed becomes the new chief minister in a coalition government formed with the BJP. Sayeed says about the election and the future- "History has given us a big opportunity, and we want to make this alliance the turning point for Kashmir." After years of conflict a new election provides an opportunity to turn the page for Kashmir and South Asia, and shift the focus to the economy and infrastructure.

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In 2007 the number of businesses initiating liquidation increased by 50% totaling 18, 751 according to the Administrative office of US courts. And 5700 businesses sought Chapter 11 protection to reorganiza an increase of 24% over 2006. Look for more of this happening in 2008. In current credit and economic conditions its hard for some companies to pay off their lenders and the lenders do not want to go through a restructuring process, lenders preferring to get their hands on collateral and doing the liquidation. Its a sign of the times.

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Though this report in WSJ speculates about removal of Foreign Minister Qin Gang after only a year in office and the return of veteran diplomat Wang Yi, it is clear that the 69 year old Yi brought experience badly needed by Xi Jinping. The decisions taken during the pandemic were reversed, the isolation is now seen as an error as China engages with the US and the EU. Like veteran diplomat Jaishankar for Mr. Modi, Xi needs Wang Yi's skills more than ever today to build a stable productive relationship with the US. During Mr Yi's long career US China, EU China relations reflected important decisions that were taken with a shared understanding, more than ever the need today.

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Geithner in written testimony to the Senate Finance Committee, stated that "President Obama - backed by the conclusions of a broad range of economists- believes that China is manipulating its currency." What is noteworthy is that experts are generally in agreement that something should be done about this in cooperative fashion, from Obama's economic team, Obama's own views on this, The National Association of Maufacturers, Labor and so on. The trade deficit with China has continued at high levels even with the current economic slowdown, so this issue remains as one that the Bush administration never really addressed. Simon Johnson, a MIT Professor, and former IMF Chief economist says that even the IMF has not addressed it, and that the Obama administration needs to call China to account. He says this could lead to a spat with China, and if the US does not back down to a row. The concern has been that China would not buy up Treasury debt the way it has in the past, at the same time the question is whether there is some point where the deficit is so large and the US so dependent on foreign buyers of Treasury debt, that it needs to be addressed on a number of levels. Including addressing currency and fair trade issues, a more rational balanced consumption of everything from oil to goods from lowcost Asian countries, to reduce the toll on the overextended American consumer and on the extent of US borrowing needed. From China's perspective there may also be the same concern about export led growth, which may come to be seen as undependable anyway, because with or without some currency advantage the overextended US consumer is not buying anyway, holding off on purchases of everying from cars to flatscreen televisions. With growth at 6.8% in 4th quarter 2008, according to the Chinese Government Statistics Bureau, and expected to drop to 5% in 2009, the export growth model is no longer the panacea for China's unemployed as it once was at 12-13% growth rates in 2006-2007. In fact it may now look to be a better wiser policy if China had increased the value of its currency even more than its slow gradual approach to slow the growth rate from 12-13% to a more sustainable 9-10%, and lower American imports and lower the American trade deficit. Part of the problem in China was the difficulty of applying any sort of brakes once the local governments were set free to expand as much as they could, and prevented any controls from being effective. Steel production continued to grow even after there was evidence of large overcapacity, and government direction failed. Buy some time to shift to domestic consumption based recovery, is what the Chinese policy may be now. Indications of this are evident with its grappling at the issues it has not tackled like giving ownership of land to farmers in rural areas, and to building a healthcare system for the country, both of which are part of a host of issues to shift to domestic consumption based recovery. So unlike the way the media and some experts portray it its not a tough line that the US is taking against Chinese unwillingness. China may want to cooperate.That may be true if China was missing out on 10-13% growth rates, but these were unsustainable anyway and bad policy. At growth rates below 5% as projected by analysts China may want to jettison the export model of growth and build an alternative one. In that case as China shifts to domestic consumption, currency adjustments may be seen quite differently than they were in the past....

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Very little is known about executives in AI who were till 2018 unknowns. Murati is from Albania, went to high school in British Columbia and on to a bachelors degree in mechanical engineering at Thayer School of Dartmouth in 2012. She worked at Tesla and a startup on augmented reality before joining OpenAI in 2018, according to Wikipedia. Much controversy was generated in 2024 with ouster of Sam Altman and reinstatement generating concern how AI is being used for profit by individuals without a role for government and leaders of major world nations and setting rules and guidance. The world of AI pioneers is fragmented with different views and it is not clear if the US, Europe, India, China or other countries can delegate such important technologies to a few individuals with little experience. The recent AI conference chaired by Macron of France and Modi of India was intended to bring leadership of major countries in advanced technology to take the lead in managing AI instead of leaving the field to unknown individual players.  ...

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A proposal to transfer debt in excess of 60% of GDP of all eurozone countries into a single fund to be paid off in 25 years is gaining attention in Germany. It is seen as finding acceptance with Germany's Constitutional Court. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, says eurobonds are unconstitutional in Germany. Germany calls instead for greater European integration and transfer of powers from sovereign governments to a European banking supervisory authority. In early June 2012 discussions continued in Berlin between Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission and Angela Merkel of Germany. The German position is summarized in the words of German finance minister Schauble, when he said that Germany could not hand over its credit card to other countries.

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Erskine Bowles, a former chief of staff under President Clinton, and Alan Simpson, former senator from Wyoming, say the U.S. Supercommittee members should remember that their personal priorities and the common good are not at odds. The authors of the Bowles-Simpson Presidents Commission for deficit reduction say there is growing discontent among voters with politicians who are obsessed with gaining partisan advantage. Using issues of national importance that require a common approach from all parties as a way to score political points will only backfire on these politicians. Personal priorities of members of Congress are now no longer at odds with the common good, they are converging. It is upto the Congress, members of both parties, to push back against the special interests and partisan politics, and show leadership on the deficit. The eurozone crisis has shown the dire consequences of any sluggishness or procrastination. The failure of the political class and leadership in Italy and Greece, and in other nations of the EU, has put the fate of these countries in the hands of markets, which have relentlessly pushed up the borrowing rates of Greece, Italy, Spain and other countries, and taken future direction out of the hands of politicians. Erskine and Bowles say don't wait for a fiscal crisis to take action because it will be disastrous economically and politically, with everyone as losers and no winners. Timidity is not an option, leadership is required to take action that is big and broad, tackling tax expenditures, entitlement expenditures, defense, across the board....

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Priceline surged in a tech boom of two decades ago before coming down. It has regenerated itself through its 2005 acquisition of Amsterdam based portal Booking.com, followed by acquiring booking site Agoda and travel search engine Kayak. This has helped the stock rise in the last decade. Over 90% of its revenue comes from outside the U.S., even though its original model of naming a price for a booking is gone.  Booking.com is making an attempt to penetrate the Chinese travel market with a series of acquisitions starting with online travel agency Ctrip.com. Ctrip.com is established but recent acquisitions are burning cash. There is skepticism about these acquisitions as Chinese company share prices are seen as inflated similar to the stock booms that went bust in the U.S. Booking.com invested heavily in online advertising primarily through Google. Yet though western customers use search engines to find and book travel, in China customers go directly to Ctrip or apps like Meituan to book trips. To get people to book Chinese travel companies offer large discounts, a model that may not be right for Booking.com. The effort is to add to Ctrip customer base the middle to lower income customers from Didi ride sharing app and the Meituan app, through its partnerships with these companies. The experience of other travel sites such as Expedia in the Chinese market is poor, with price wars and Expedia selling its majority stake to Didi Chuxing. Expedia's CEO at the time calls it "the wild, wild east" because of the intense competition. About 130 million Chinese travelled overseas in 2017, up 7%, and spending $115 billion. ...

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ElBaradei's father was a president of the Egyptian Bar Association. ElBaradei studied for his law degree and doctorate at New York University and was an adjunct professor of law at NYU. He joined the UN and wasn not the choice of the Egyptian government for the position of head of the UN Atomic Energy Agency. He was a compromise candidate supported by the US. As a young diplomat in the Egyptian Foreign Ministry he was part of the team that negotiated the Camp David Peace Accords with Israel. Because of his background, a nuanced understanding of ElBaradei is necessary to understand his criticism of the Obama administration's hesitant support of the protests, and his statements saying Egypt's foreign policy was a failure. For his role in the future ElBaradei says, all I want to do is share and deliver this country to catch up with the rest of the world." To understand what this means for a backward country like Egypt with a growing population of 80 million of mostly young people, which has failed to keep pace with economic progress in other parts of the world, see the article by Henando de Soto. Soto describes his effort working on a project for reforms in Egypt from 1997-2004 with the support of members of the Egyptian cabinet and the US Agency of Intenational Development, which were blocked in a cabinet shakeup by interests wanting to preserve the status quo. Failure to grasp this central fact that alone among large developing countries Egypt has failed to deliver on the rising expectations in the developing world, makes it impossible to understand Egypt. This is why De Soto describes the situation in Egypt as Egypt's Econmic Apartheid. In New York City enjoyed his time in Greenwich village, going to the opera and Knicks basketball games....

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The deterioration in the Irish banking crisis. An additional 13 billion euros will be needed by Irish banks to pay bad real estate debt, after this round of stress tests in March 2011, according to Ireland's Central Bank. This is on top of the 85 billion euros rescue package after collapse of the banks, and the 10 billion euros given by the EU and the IMF. Some estimates say the cost of the banking bust could reach $140 billion for a country with GDP of $241 billion. Ireland's interest payments on debt are estimated to rise to 13% of government revenues by 2012. Serious calls are being made for bondholders to share in the losses as the crisi escalates. Daniel Gros, Director of the Center of European Policy Studies, says policymakers in Europe saw the experience of Lehman Brothers and do not want to see a repeat of that experience at any cost. The weak banks in Germany and other lender countries are too politically connected in his view to be allowed to fail. German banks hold $62 billion in Irish Greek and Portuguese debt and French banks hold $26 billion. Hypo Real Estate, taken over by the German government, holds $14.5 billion of this debt. Bank assets in Europe are a larger share of the national economies in Europe than in the U.S. making the situation more intractable- In Britain over 3.5 times the economy, Ireland 2.5 times, in Netherlands 4.4 times, in France 3.25 times, in Spain 2 times and in Germany 1.5 times GDP, compared to 60% of GDP in the U.S. After the Irish government decided to guarantee the debt of its banks two years ago, Irish taxpayers are stuck with the entire cost of bad debt at the Irish banks....