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This editorial in the WSJ, says its a surprise the protest vote in EU parliamentary elections did not come earlier, considering 11% unemployment in Europe and about 50% youth unemployment in some countries. Italy's Renzi government did well in the elections with 41% of the vote. The CDU got 30% of the vote. The French UMP party getting 20% and the Socialists 14%, a poor showing in France compared to the Natonal Front 25%. UKIP Independence party took 27% of the vote in the UK, with Labor and Conservatives a close second and third. Overall the results in Italy and Germany salvaged the situation, says the editorial, by making the pro-EU European People's Party (EPP), the largest group. It includes the UMP in France and CDU in Germany, and has 213 seats for then next 5 years, the largest group in a 753 member EU parliament.

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The devaluation of the Argentine peso from 9.8 to the dollar to 13 to the dollar in Dec. 2015 by president Macri is leading to higher inflation hurting the working class. The cutting of export taxes is helping farmers. Removing most currency controls is designed to help increase foreign investment by letting foreign companies freely repatriate profits. Also expected to be removed are bureaucratic procedures that limit imports of new equipment for manufacturers. Middle class voters see the moves helping the economy in the long run with new foreign investment and changing the outlook for investment. A former central bank president Mario Blejer points out that after 12 years of the previous Kirchner administration Argentina needs investment- by improving the outlook for investment and removing import controls the government plans to stimulate investment to lead to economic growth. Inflation is up 25% and Macri is keeping Mrs. Kirchner's price control programs in place to prevent a surge in inflation beyond the impact of the devaluation. ...

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This Wall Street Journal editorial says the Trump-Lighthizer strategy is to blow up global supply chains and a political strategy to win Democratic votes. It is critical of the reduced protections for American business from expropriation, which it says is intended to keep American jobs at home. It is also critical of the attempt to leave NAFTA by setting up separate trade deals with Mexico, and later with Canada. Business has favored keeping the North American supply chains intact. The editorial praises the 16 year duration of the agreement with Mexico offering more certainty for investors.

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The country is Turkey and the plant will supply 10% of Turkey's needs, about the size of the electricity for the city of Istanbul. Russia will build, and run the plant for 40-50 years in a new arrangement.

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Kenneth Volpert, head of taxable fixed-income at Vanguard Group in Valley Forge, Pa, says the weak economy and the Fed's easy monetary policy could lead to higher inflation. Inflation bonds strategists at Barclays Capital says the consumer price index after taking out food and energy is running at an annualized rate of 2.5% over the past 6 months and 2.9% over the past 3 months and is expected to go higher. The yield gap between 10 year TIPS and 10 year nominal Treasury notes, was trading at 2.24 percentage points on August 12, 2011 This means investors expect an annualized average rate of inflation of 2.24% in the U.S. over the next decade. This figure has declined from 2.65% in April, it is up from 1.5% in October 2010.

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Auto parts makers employ 600,000 workers concentrated in 7 states and also supply foreign carmakers in the USA. They are asking for access to TARP or other government money as they are feeling the effects of this downturn. Carmakers are using the stuy by the Center for Automotive Research that says 3 million jobs will be affected. However bankruptcy law allows the carmakers to continue to operate, and gives the automakers an opportunity to renegotiate all labor contracts on the basis of the new realities in the American economy, as demand collapses and credit is tight and companies need rescue money from the government. Douglas Baird, a Professor at the University of Chicago Law School who specializes in bankruptcy law says that this 3 million figure is laughable as modern bankruptcy law is designed to protect against that, in effect suggesting that companies like the airlines that are operating in bankruptcy can continue to operate as before but do so with serious restructuring.

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Feeding America, a national network of food banks, finds that 37 million, or 1 in 8 Americans, needed emergency food assistance in 2009. Even in affluent suburbs like Long Island it found 280,000 sought assistance for food in 2009. And 39% of these were children under 18. Only 30% of those seeking help received food stamps suggesting that even that program is not reaching everyone that needs help.

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This Washington Post article by Henry Farrell explains the implications of the 2016 EU ruling on Apple asking it to pay 13 billion euros in back taxes. Other countries in the European Union are upset that Ireland is taking away business and siphoning away tax revenues from their country, and giving most of it back to Apple. Normally the European Union Commission does not have authority over taxes in the member states. However considering the social and political implications at a time of deep recession and political upheaval in the EU and the U.S., the European Union Commission under Margarethe Vestager has seen it proper to look at arrangements in which companies come up with tax arrangements that deprive member states unfairly of tax revenues- revenues that could support social welfare and basic education, healthcare services at a time of painful cuts. A tax rate of .005% in 2013 for Apple is cited by Vestager as she points out that Apple's taxable profit does not correspond to economic reality, as most operations are conducted outside Ireland. Ireland is just on paper the tax location for EU operations. Vestager has thus come up with a legal approach based on Ireland's tax arrangements being a form of illegal state subsidy, which is not allowed under EU rules, and gives the EU Commission authority to require that it be reversed by paying the back taxes of 13 billion euros. Farrell answers the question why the U.S. Treasury is saying that Apple should not have to pay these taxes, as the U.S. also hopes to get some of these taxes at some future date with Apple repatriating profits to the U.S. under a still to be set tax arrangement. ...

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German chancellor Merkel imposes a partial lockdown in Germany starting November 2. This is followed by an announcement of a lockdown across France by president Macron. On October 28 German daily cases went above 14,000. Only 25% of intensive care beds are now available, creating a very serious situation. Meetings in public will be restricted to just two households of up to 10 people total. No crowds at sports events. Restaurants and bars will close except for take away. Schools and kindergartens will remain open. Church services and protests will be allowed to continue. Shops will remain open with one customer for every 10 square meters or 108 square feet. Merkel called it a "very serious situation," and said "we must act now to avoid an acute national health emergency." She told Germans the number of people in intensive care units has doubled in last 10 days, and in many areas it was no longer possible to track and trace infection chains. In 75% of the cases the source of infection is unknown. People are encouraged to work from home and companies encouraged to make this happen. Companies with less than 50 employees and self-employed will get support from the government with  about 75%% of the income. Companies, institutions and clubs will also get federal aid. About $10 billion euros are set aside for this aid. ...

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Mark Hulbert points to the comparison of financial ratios in Dec 1999 when the Nasdaq Composite Index reached 4000, with the situation in November 2013 when the Index again crossed 4000. He cites the changes from P/E ratios for trailing earnings at 30 in 1999 compared to 20 in 2013 for the Nasdaq Index, Shiller cyclically adjusted P/E ratios at 44 in 1999 compared 24 in 2013, Price/Book ratios at 5.1 in 1999 compared to 2.6 in 2013, and Price to Sales ratios at 2.4 in 1999 compared to 1.6 in 2013. The broad market could still be overvalued says Hulbert, but the Nasdaq index shows tech companies not speculatively driven up in the way they were in 1999.

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The Microsoft Edge browser replaced the Internet Explorer in 2015. Now the Internet Explorer will be removed from most versions of Windows 10.

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Carapaz from Ecuador wins  2024 Stage 17 of the Tour de France in the Alps on a steep climb leaving behind Yates.

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Daniel Henninger of the WSJ says the state of opinion that asks does it matter, about the terrorist attack on Benghazi, is misplaced. He watched the movie "13 Hours" on what happened at Benghazi, and says a terrorist group had made plans to attack the American consulate, the depiction in the movie fairly accurate, and the Obama White House version with the 2012 election in two months not accurate. Henninger cites the indictment by a federal grand jury in the District of Columbia of Abu Khatallah. In June 2014 Khatalla was captured by Special Forces for the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi. The indictment says Khatallah and militias "launched a violent attack on the U.S. mission on Sept. 11, at 11.15 pm.." following this up with an attack on the CIA annex.

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The pace of traffic growth in Beijing is tremendous, especially in the last 5 years. Beijing had 4.7 million registered vehicles in Dec 2010. The rapid growth shows 700,000 new vehicles added in 2010, 550,000 in 2009, 376,000 in 2008, 252,000 in 2007. Beijing will be fully saturated by the time the number hits 6.5 million, say experts. A June survey by IBM shows Beijing has the worst traffic of 20 large cities in the world, only Mexico City has comparable traffic. In 2009, the government cut in half the sales tax on small engine cars, and spent billions in subsidies for rural car purchases. As a result car purchases have accelerated to new levels, with 2009 sales up by 46% over 2008, and sales through November 2010 up by 34% over 2009, according to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. In July, Beijing city officials said that rush hour traffic had slowed to about 15 miles per hour, and was headed for 9 miles per hour by 2015. Twenty years ago, Beijing was a city of bicycles and old alleys, and a single limited access highway made a rectangle around the city. In 2010 five freeways circle the city, and eight freeways spoke from the suburbs to downtown, and the subway will soon stretch to 10 times its 1990 length....

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Iran's government drastically cut subsidies for gasoline, electricity and basic food items. Gasoline prices were raised from 1,000 rials (about 10 cents) per liter to 4,000 rials. As a result gasoline consumption is down 14% in early January from the prior month. Use of public transport is up 20%. Fares for Tehran's buses and subway went up by 20%, far less than the price increase for gasoline. The government introduced a $40 per person monthly stipend to soften the impact especially for poor families. Iranians are gradually tightening their belts and adjusting to the price increases, reducing wasteful energy use. Iranians have one of the highest rates of wasteful energy consumption in the world, according to IMF. This is because Iran has so far provided generous subsidies, covering 80% of the cost of energy and basic food items. President Ahmadinejad has introduced the Smart Subsidy Plan which calls for a gradual five year phaseout. These cuts will save $100 billion a year, according to government estimates, and is supported by the IMF. Iran is rigorously monitoring price increases in retail stores to ensure that retailers are not passing on the increases to customers. Trucking and transport businesses are allowed to raise their fees by only 15% to cover rising costs including the 837% fuel price increase....

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The WSJ cites polls in Italy Feb. 8, before the two week blackout prior to elections on Feb 24-25. The polls cited show the Centre left PD coalition of Luigi Bersani at 35% of the vote, the coalition of Silvio Berlusconi at 28%, the centrist Monti parties at around 10%, and the surging Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo in a range around 20%. The Monti centrist parties are facing difficulty because of the austerity measures taken by Monti's government in 2012. The Economist cites higher figures for the Monti centrist parties at 14% and puts Grillo's party at about 15%, showing the variations in poll figures. WSJ cites figures showing undecided vote at about 20% of voters, about 5 million voters being undecided. Voter turnout is also a factor, with less than the 80% voter turnout of 2008 expected in the current vote. The regional vote which determines the composition of the Senate shows Grillo likely to lead in Sicily, and the vote divided evenly between the PD party and Berlusconi's coalition in Lombardy. The best outcome for the eurozone is one in which the PD party wins, but not with a majority large enough for it not to need the support of the Monti centrist party, which is supported by Italy's business community and favored by the EU and Germany. ...

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Automakers stand to lose a lot of money on their leased SUV's. Spinella, President of CNW Marketing Research estimates they could lose $4.7 billion in 2008, with losses extending into 2009 and 2010 which could cost them additional $10 billion. Why? Because many of these SUV's leased for as long as 39 months are on the road and automakers only recently started writing fewer leases, and as thes SUV's come back to the car lots they are marked way down. Automakers did not anticipate such a large markdown. According to Mannheim, the USA's largest vehicle wholesaler, between March an May the resale values of large SUV's have fallen 13%, with some pickups down 20%, as a result of $4 a gallon gasoline. Knowing the drop in resale values more lease holders are reluctant to buy or to extend their leases. Over the next 18 months GM will lose $600 million in lease related costs, and Ford will lose $1 billion, according to Chase analyst Himanshu Patel. According to Brian Johnson, Lehman Brothers analyst, GM's lending arm will lose $1.1 billion and Ford's $1.5 billion, GM's losses lower because GMAC is owned 51% by Cerberus Capital. Not just the American automakers, BMW took a charge of $400 million for losses in the first quarter on sales of off-lease SUV's and cars. ...

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Important to distinguish in GNP, GDP and GDP per capita. The official rate of 10-11% growth is questioned by Thurow by noting that 70% of China in the rural area is seeing slow growth and if the urban economy has to grow at 33 % if the whole of China is to grow by 11%. He also brings up electricity consumption historicaly growing much faster than the growth rate of GNP or GDP. At breakneck growth rates gorwth has still been 60% of the gorwth in electricity consumption because some of it is wasted or is not used productively.He does not give his electricity consumption growth for China numbers, but we can extrapolate from the 6% growth in China analogous to Japanese growth rates in the 1970's that he comes up with, to see that electricity growth rates he assumes in his math are 10% a year in China. That is based on 6% growth he gives for China constituting 60% of the growth in electricity consumption for China. Given the validity of this math China and India are growing at much slower rates than official math states. This also means productivity of capital remains a major issue and does not simply go away when seeing the countries as a whole not just coastal and other well developed regions of India and China. So the message that is being projected about Chinese growth may be misleading as urbanization in China will still have to proceed for many decades for the growth to even out geographically. Another fact that immigration has been a source of additional people for the USA and so a significant population increase will be seen in the US in the next few decades even as China's population declines, supporting much larger economic activity in the USA. Europe also is seeing no increase in population. Europe's per capita income fell from 85% of that of the US in 1990, to 66% in 2007 according to the IMF statistics quoted here. Validation of these numbers would provide a different assessment of overenthusiasm for the kind of haphazard growth which also wastes resources and sacrifices the environment and shortchanges health, education and other goals, and instead promotes a different view that constantly looks for better ways of meeting the difficult challenges facing China and India. With these...

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Interesting when 53 economists were surveyed by the WSJ 51% attributed the rising fuel prices to demand from China and India, only 15% attribute it to supply constraints, and 15% attribute it to foreign exchange issues and 11% attribte it to speculation. That is that 3 times as many economists think demand from China and India is the culprit compared to supply constraints, and twice as many economists think foreign exchange speculation and central bank issues are the cause than supply constraints. Why? Once you remove this outsize demand from China and moderate the growth there then the supply constraint does not become so critical. In previous years declining prices made exploration less attractive or the fact that price was not stable going up and then coming down making it difficult to invest based on a stable return. Now the basic component of additional energy for countries like India and China's people increasing demands could be accomodated within existing and new supplies coming onstream, without the red hot demand component of growth rates at above 10% and close to 10% in India and China exacerbating prices upto some current estimates of $200 per barrel. In effect the price spikes would reverse the demand growth, and the essential needs of more people needing everything from electricity and fuel and gasoline to improve living standards in China and India at a moderate pace would prevent oil prices from falling to levels that make aggressive search for new oil finds and increased production from more difficult locations unattractive. This would correct the previous imbalance where exploration at low prices near $30 or $40 a barrel and uncertain price levels made for little new exploration while consumers were on a consumption binge in the use of gasoline which created this present situation. And in future oil at sustainable price levels would make it easier to meet the needs of poorer people in countries like China and India as more aggressive growth resumes at some future date after this expected worldwide slowdown. So correcting the previous and current imbalances helps to create a better situation in the future to better meet the hopes and expectations of millions of people in the developing countries for better nutrition, better electricity supplies and other needs of modern living....

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The European Union was faced with a baseline tariff of 10% which after slow progress on negotiations is up now to 15%. EU frustration is evident in this story in the WSJ. But this could also be just a negotiating tactic of the EU. Bottom line the EU needs the US as Germany faces an assertive Russia. Germany is aware that France and Britain are further away than Germany from Eastern Europe and Russia.  Under chancellor Merz there is  much more rapport with the US than ever existed under the Merkel government or the Scholz government. Merz has disagreed with the sale of stake to COSCO in Hamburg port and many decisions from the Merkel period on immigration, being more aligned with the US in spirit. This was evident in the visit and meeting of DJT with Merz at the White House. DJT says even of Starmer of Labour that "I like him a lot." This could easily be said about the relationship between DJT and Merz. The decision by DJT on Patriots to replenish German supplies and by Merz to finance this and shift Patriots in Germany to Ukraine is a clear example of the path chosen by the two leaders for cooperation. German decisions will be driven by Merz in the direction of economic cooperation with the US with none of the condescending attitude that Merkel and even Scholz showed towards the US out of a lack of grasp of what is happening both inside Germany and the US, the need to rebuild the US and Europe after the trade disasters and lack of investment in the home base of 30 years. ...

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One more area where the Obama administration has not acted decisively is the building of high seed rail networks. Spain has plans to invest $140 billion over next 10 years to develop a network of 6200 miles of high speed rail lines.So far the Obama administration has allocated $8 billion, and the whole issue is being put off for another 18 months. Department of Transportation has already received proposals for $100 billion of new high speed rail lines from 40 states.

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Analysts are forecasting an average oil price of $106 for 2011, according to FactSet Research Systems. Brent crude is $110 a barrel in the third week of August 2011. This implies Brent crude has to be at an average of $95 for the remainder of 2011- suggesting a decline of 14% from todays levels. Share prices of European oil companies Royal Dutch Shell, BP, Eni and Total are priced for long term crude oil prices at $75 per barrel, according to Citi.

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Ford showed a profit of $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2012. Profit of $2.3 billion in North American operations with North American profit margins of 12% helping overcome pretax losses of 468 million in Europe. In comparison to earlier years Ford held incentives down and maintained North American profit margins, earning $3500 on every vehicle sold in N. America. By comparison operating margins for Chrysler for third quarter were 4.6% and GM's margins in 2012 are about 7.4%.

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Australia exceeded China in total revenue for GE by $100 million, with $5.8 billion in revenues. GE now sees resource rich countries providing revenue growth of 25% in the next 2 years compared to 10-15% for China and India. The Ichthys $34 billion LNG project by Total SA and Inpex of Japan alone generated $1.1 billion in contracts for gas turbines, compressors and underwater production systems. The Gorgon project of Chevron on the northwest coast of Australia generated $1.3 billion in revenue.

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K.V. Kamath, former CEO of ICICI Bank, will become the new nonexecutive chairman of Infosys. S.D. Shibulal, the chief operating officer, will be the new CEO of Infosys. Mr Shibulal said he will pursue a new strategy that will align the company's businesses on the basis of industries, service lines and geographies. Infosys stock is down 16%, and it is experiencing weak growth. This follows a period when the founders of the company, including Mr. Narayana Murthy, played a dominant role in management.