LyrArc Article Gist
How is it that GM would predict sales close to 16 million when no one else sees that happening. Is it just optimistic, even in the face of last years forecast which also stumbled badly with no improvement in the second half as expected. Instead GM closes the year 2007 with sales down 6% over 2006. And much worse numbers for Ford which saw 12% decline, and Chrysler a 3% decline. Chrysler continues to sell to rental fleets. Toyota's and Honda's sales grew by 3.1 and 2.8% respectively. But this year 2008 Toyota doesn't expect to do well with only a 1% increase. Nissan and Hyundai are in the same straits as the Big Three American makers in inventory of cars and sell to rental car fleets. In terms of inventory per point of market share Nissan has excess production capacity and more cars as inventory, about 39,000 per point of Nissan's market share similar to the Big Three. Toyota and Honda have 28,000 per point of their market share.

LyrArc Article Gist
Citigroup is bleeding even as the government has ringfenced $300 billion in bad assets and its not likely to go under. The next step may be to get these bad assets into a bad bank as Bernanke has suggested. Citigroup is now divesting many of the assets like Smith Barney that were hastily put together by Sandy Weil as some kind of financial supermarket. None of the companies with their separate cultures melded together, and managing this was a huge undertaking which never really got off the ground. Now its all coming apart and Citigroup will go back to its core assets.

LyrArc Article Gist
Richard Fisher, president of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank, has a three part proposal for tackling the "too big to fail" problem and concentration of 70% of the U.S. banking assets in a few banks. It calls for Market Discipline to be exercized in a way that the Dodd-Frank legislation fails to do. This is to be accomplished by having deposit insurance and the Fed's discount window apply only to traditional commercial banks, not the nonbank affiliates and parent holding companies. Customers, creditors and counterparties of all nonbank affiliates and the parent holding companies would be asked to sign a disclosure accepting that there is no government guarantee. In addition the largest financial holding companies would be restructured so that all their corporate entities would fall under a speedy bankruptcy process. Fisher does not clarify how he would do this restructuring. The Fisher idea come after changes in the banking industry through internal management restructuring following trading losses, legal settlements and the passage of a Swiss referendum called the Minder Initiative on compensation. Fisher suggests the U.S. Fed and regulatory authorites in other countries should push for further restructuring and calls for action beyond the limited results from 2010 Dodd-Frank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act. He is critical of Dodd-Frank's often ambiguous and lengthy worded legislation- 849 pages for the law and 9000 pages for the regulations written to implement the law. Fisher emphasizes the point that its hard to implement a law and enforce rules when its not clear and is difficult to understand....

LyrArc Article Gist
Official currency reserves of developing world countries almost quadrupled over the last decade to $2.9 trillion. Reserves of industrialized countries went up by 150%. In 2005 reserves went up by 18% for developing countries and declined 1.5% for developed countries. 70% of total currency reserves are in developing countries. This is a huge accumulation of reserves by developing countries in a short period. In 2005 74% of overall reserves were in U.S. dollars. The reserves help countries pay bills and make investments. For developing countries having sufficient reserves helps in two other ways. The reserves are a buffer in emergencies , and means countries like Brazil and S. Korea don't have to turn to the IMF or the U.S. for assistance. Another way this helps is for countries like China to be able to use their reserves to keep their currencies from appreciating and maintain a competitive edge in exports.

LyrArc Article Gist
Resistance to EU reforms for a Single Sky Plan by controllers and national aviation agencies. The EU Transport Commissioner, Sim Kallas, is pushing the Single European Sky plan. This is being planned for January 2012. With the creation of the Single Sky national barriers would fall, national air traffic bureaucracies would give up powers, and controllers in European countries will have to work more efficiently and may face job cuts. Europe's air traffic system is splintered. There are 39 national agencies, and Eurocontrol with 64 control centers. Europe has twice as many bureaucrats and support staff compared to the U.S. European air-traffic agencies costs per flight are 75% higher than the FAA's, mostly because of labor costs. According to Eurocontrol, air traffic in Europe went up 1% in 2010 over 2009, but delays went up by 34%. Over 40% of scheduled flights in Europe were over 5 minutes late in 2010- the comparable figure for the U.S. is a little over 25%. This splintered situation became an obvious drawback during the volcanic eruption in Iceland, when the lack of a single regulator meant the lack of a common standard. In 2009, the EU presented its own program that would group 32 national agencies into nine units called airspace blocks, which would given the task of breaking down internal barriers and integrating operations A common set of standards for all air traffic agencies would be set, and advanced technology would be used to support safety and efficient flight management. This program is now set for initial implementation in January 2012. As part of this effort European governments like Spain are tackling their high air trafffic controller costs....

LyrArc Article Gist
The life of one young family with children since 2001 when the couple married from midle class prosperity to surviving on handouts with things deteriorating rapidly after 2003 when Al Quaeda bombed a holy mosque of the Shiite faith starting a wave of Shiite and Sunni conflict and making it impossible for Sunni and Shiites to live together. There are about 2 million refugees or displaced persons in Iraq largely a result of the Sunni and Shiite conflict and defacto partition of Iraq as Sunnis move to Sunni areas and Shiites to shiite areas much like what happened in the Punjab during partition and the creation of Pakistan. Another 2 million are refugees in Syria and Jordan. In 2008 its 5 years since the US invasion of Iraq and there is an assessment of what has happened since. The war and the insurgency has led to 180,000 killed according to one estimate by Iraqi Ministry of Health. There were elections leading to a Shiite dominated government and regional autonomy for the Kurdish part, but after Sunnis from the old regime took up arms as insurgents the Americans largely failed to provide the security to ordinary Iraqis. Then after local militias of Sunnis and Shiites took over their areas security, it was largely provided by the militias in their areas and the whole tone of the conflict shifted to that between sectarian communities. Since 2007 the tribal leaders who supported the insurgents shifted their allegiance to the Americans, who essentially now ensure security and transition for an interim administration, while a defacto partition of Iraq has already ocurred and is being completed. The Americans will essentially have reversed the creation of Sunnis as a privileged minority, which happened under the British after the collapse of the Ottoman Empire turned the area over to the British, and the British crushed a Shiite uprising. Leading afterwards to the creation of an independent Iraq from territories put together from the British colonial period following the Ottoman collapse. Now the area reverts to what it was before either the Ottomans or the British to what it was when it was a Shiite region, without the borders such as Iran and Iraq and Shiite religious centers extended from Iran into Iraq, which may account for the strong religious feeling of Shiite communities regardless of these borders. What of the Sunni minority around and in provinces near Baghdad? These communities could only prosper with some kind of neighborly coexistence with the Shiite communities of the region, which is the best the U.S. can do for the region promote some kind of neighborly coexistence between the communties and exit gracefully. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Washington Post editorial on the Obama Georgetown speech of April 13, 2009. It questions whether President Obama has the candour and courage to tackle the tough issues of deficit reduction and entitlement reform. New healthcare spending for coverage itself will add to entitlement, and it says some of the savings mentioned by the President are phony or already needed for new spending for the economic recovery and health care. At the same time the paper gives Obama good marks for his clarity and grasp of the crisis and steps for recovery, and the policy agenda in the areas of health care, energy and education. The questions about courage and candor also raise all the questions about facing upto the facts about insolvent banks that Krugman, Rosenfeld, the Economist and others have raised. Is Obama dodging the hard choices, is he dithering? On the toughest issues like foreclosures, insolvent banks, global regulation pushed by the Europeans, will he end up making inadequate or faulty choices, and when he comes around to making the tough choices, will he have lost so much valuable time as to prolong the crisis and stretch it out to many years....

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that some depreciation in the value of the dollar is welcome because it would make US exports more competitive and reduce our trade deficit. He says China's policy of keeping the yuan pegged to the dollar actually devalues the Chinese currency and makes it possible for China to siphon off growth from other countries. So what should America do. By putting pressure on China to revalue the yuan upward would America be risking China responding by selling some f its $2.1 trillion in dollar assets. This would not be such abad thing if the Chinese sold some of their dollar assets says Krugman, as lowering the value of the dollar at this time is not such abad thing. Malpass and Alan Meltzer of Carnegie Mellon, point out the importance of maintaining the value of the dollar in a separate piece. There the idea is not to have sharp fall in the value of the dollar that could economic disruption because of loss of confidence in the currency as opposed to a gradual decline.

LyrArc Article Gist
Pearlstein points to the need for the structural changes in the U.S., Europe and China to address the serious imbalances that are at the root of the problem. This process will be painful and mean a short term drag on the economy even if the right actions are taken. The process of unwinding the imbalances will take time. Lower growth in China will be good for the bubble in real estate markets and the reduction in the trade surplus, even though this will reduce imports of European and U.S. machinery. Higher savings in the U.S. and reduction of consumer debt will slow retail sales but this is healthy for longer term growth. The same is true for savings in deficit reduction that will result in more layoffs at the local level. The government needs to have similiar action take place at the banks to end their "extend and pretend" practices and finally write off bad loans in residential and commercial real estate. There is no easy way out, no solutions that can be made without a sharing of the pain. Policy makers around the world have tried to look for painless solutions for years and this may be the end of the road. There is some action that the governments and central banks can take. Pearlstein suggests that the European Central Bank buy up some of the sovereign bonds being dumped on the market even if it means printing money. The Fed, the Bank of Japan and the central bank of China can also swap some of the Treasuries they own for European sovereign bonds. This would give time for the EU leaders to give the European Financial Stability Facility the resources and powers to replace the sovereign bonds with more reliable European bonds. The Fed can take this opportunity to sell some of its huge pile of Treasury bills into the market so that it has more room for action in future years. The U.S. government can move up the spending for infrastructure in years 8, 9, and 10 to the next 2-3 years to give some support to the economy as these changes take place. The spending decisions should be left to an independent Infrastructure Bank. See the related article by Krauthammer in the Washington Post, August 5, 2011, which provides a companion policy prescription for U.S. deficit reduction based on the work done by the Bowles-Simpson Commission and by preserving efficiency and fairness....

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Morici is interviewed by Maria Bartiromo. He says the dollar should be devalued against the yuan by 40-50%. China by keeping the yuan undervalued has provided its exports with the equivalent of an export subsidy. China will only allow imports of solar panels with 75% domestic content, the US does not. The other problem is the banks and compensation. Morici says banks compensation should be like that of a regulated public utility. Can one imagine the head of Con Ed making the kind of compensation at the banks?

LyrArc Article Gist
MaC Group, a risk advisor to Spanish banks, says Spanish banks hold about 30 billion pounds of distressed real estate and unsellable land. Prices are down 28% from the peak in 2007, according to a report by the IESE Business School, and are expected to fall a further 15-20 percent in the next 2-3 years by some experts. Much of the bank owned land is far from city centers and there is no demand for this. One Madrid based consultant R.R. de Acuna Asociados, says 43% of bank owned land is poorly located and there may be no demand for unfinished residential units for decades. The new government of Mariano Rajoy plans to take action to cleanup the banking system. Louis de Guindos, director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and IE Business School Center of Finance is expected to become the new finance minister. Guindos says strict rules need to be implemented, with some banks able to handle this and others that won't. MaC Group's Cantos, a managing partner, says the gap is huge between prices offered by banks and what investors will pay- as much as 70%. Prime assets can be sold for 30% discount but the land, residential and commercial real estate will require discounts of 70%. Banks have made provisions for losses of 30%, and are now facing the prospect of another 40% in losses. As a result many of the medium and small sized banks which operate only inside Spain may have to be shut down or consolidated by the government of Mariano Rajoy. Only the larger banks like Banco Santander, Banco Bilbao, La Caxia, and Bankia are likely to surivive....

LyrArc Article Gist
German leadership in the eurozone and the EU- with the strong stand for eurozone countries to do their economic homework and restore fiscal balance, and the action taken to bring the EU countries together on Russian intervention in Ukraine- is leading to questions about the dominant role played by Germany. Chancellor Merkel has played a leadership role partly because of the absence of other leaders with strong support in their home base who could provide such leadership. Merkel's poll rating in Germany actually shot up during the eurozone crisis from 40% in 2010 to 70% in 2013, and steady at 67% in June 2015, as German taxpayers and voters see Merkel as preventing debt ridden countries in the eurozone passing on higher costs in the debt crisis to Germany. With German wages kept low for the last decade to ensure a economic recovery and lower unemployment, Germans see no reason to support other eurozone countries when a low wage sector exists inside Germany, except under conditions that ensure fiscal balance. In a Harris poll taken in France June 30-July 1, 2015, Chancellor Merkel is rated higher at 43% expressing approval compared to 36% saying they approve of French premier Hollande's handling of the Greece and eurozone crisis. Over 50% of people in Spain and in France disapprove of Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis, yet two thirds of France's main centre right party support Merkel's handling of the eurozone crisis. In the Harris poll when asked how Merkel, IMF, Hollande and Tsipras handled the Greece crisis people polled in France gave 43% approval to the IMF and Merkel compared to 36% for Hollande and Tsipras of Greece, and 60% disapprove of Hollande and Tsipras handling of the crisis compared to 53% disapproval for the IMF and Merkel. The Christian Democrats party in Germany has dominant leaders in its tradition starting with Konrad Adenauer in the early postwar years, through the Kohl years during reunification and Merkel in the eurozone crisis. By contrast the Social Democrats from the period under Wily Brandt, through the Schmidt years and Schroeder have operated under more of a consensus leadership. Under Sigmar Gabriel or some other Social Democratic leader Germany is likely to have a different style of leadership in the future, especially because the German public does not favor Germany playing this kind of dominant role. At different points in the eurozone crisis Merkel's leadership was needed for decisionmaking- making banks take a 50% writedown on their loans in negotiation with Charles Dallara in Brussels, calling for Italy's president to bring in a new government (led by Mario Monti) when premier Berlusconi failed to make needed changes, and providing flexibility for spending rules for Spain, Italy and France. Merkel has actually moved to the centre to maintain popular support inside Germany, especially since the new coalition government was formed with Social Democrat leader Sigmar Gabriel. On the other major issue of immigration Merkel has provided decisive leadership to prevent the rise of anti-immigrant parties in Germany. Herfried Munkler, author of "Power in the Middle," about why Germany is playing this role may provide clues to Germany's role- by representing different aspects of German public opinion Merkel has prevented the rise of right wing populist or nationalist parties in Germany, which would distort the German narrative about what it sees as its role in keeping Europe together after three wars. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Roger McNamee, an early investor in Google and Facebook, writes this opinion piece in the Guardian newspaper saying that there are very serious problems in the way the "addiction" created by Facebook and Google products is affecting children. Lyrarc.com also points out that the reading and literacy scores in the U.S. and other countries are affected by how the new technology is used by digital gatekeepers. See our FAQ. Tim Berners Lee calls this a massive distraction for learning and youngsters. Melinda Gates has cited this as a problem she has faced in her own effort to raise her children.  Here is the main problem as stated by McNamee- of the millions of content pieces that can be shown the digital gatekeepers show only the content that is fit for their business model, and the best content from an educational point of view whether literacy, reading skills, civic literacy, all types of literacy and knowledge, is not only not the priority but is for the most part absent. He points out that that if not for the advertising business model this would be different- the focus could shift to experiences that educate, enrich and inspire users to better lives and better lifestyles. The smartphone has become pervasive in everyday lives to an astonishing degree- about 150 times a day with 2000 swipes and touches- to the point that it is changing the way people live and think without their realizing it. With it come new risks to the way we live and what we believe, like never before in history. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
JP Morgan Chase Bank faces six separate investigations by the U.S. Justice Department in 2013. Cases from the housing crisis are still being worked out. The Justice Department has concluded that securities laws were broken in JP Morgan's selling of mortgage backed securities in 2005-2007. A new investigation is taking place into anti-bribery law violations in hiring of children of Chinese officials. The legal settlement losses could place JP Morgan Chase ahead of Bank of America in the extent of losses. One estimate is for $6.8 billion in losses above that set aside in reserves, an amount larger than that of any other U.S. bank, according to Barclays Research.

LyrArc Article Gist
O'Malley, Sanders, and Clinton emphasize the issue of wages, income disparities, rising inequality, and a shrinking middle class in the first Democratic debate of the U.S. 2016 presidential election. Clinton points out that "at the center of my campaign is how we're going to raise wages." Sanders says that "the middle class of this country for the last 40 years has been disappearing." Clinton points out her opposition to the Trans Pacific Partnership trade agreement because it does not help raise American wages. Clinton calls herself a progressive, but "a progressive who gets things done," and a moderate when it comes to getting things done. Sanders points to the "deep injustice, an economic injustice that threatens to tear our country apart, and it will not solve itself." Sanders points to the wealth concentration in the U.S. "with the top one tenth of 1 percent owning about as much as the bottom 90 percent, and 57% of all new income going to the top 1 percent." Clinton comes to Sanders defense on the issue saying "it's our job to rein in the excesses of capitalism so that it doesn't run amok and doesn't cause the kind of inequities we're seeing in our economic system."...

LyrArc Article Gist
Alan Blinder, Princeton University professor and former vice chairman of the Federal Reserve, says the biggest reason for the growing deficit in the years out to 2040 is because of increases in health care spending. Its not that there is runaway spending in other areas. He cites CBO projections that show other costs stable relative to GDP from 2015 to 2035 and declining. This is why healthcare spending is at the heart of the problem. And why tackling the deficit has a lot to do with reducing healthcare cost increases.

LyrArc Article Gist
The median household headed by a person 60-62 years of age with a 401(k) account has less than one fourth of what is needed to maintain a standard of living at retirement, according to data from the Federal Reserve and analyzed by the Center for Retirement Research at Boston College for the Wall Street Journal. Including Social Security and any pensions or other savings, the savings are way short of what is needed for retirement. Households used in this data had a median income of $87,700 in 2009. The 85% needed for a decent standard of living upon retirement is $74,545. Social Security would provide an estimated 40% of pre-retiremment income, or $35,080 for that median family, leaving $39,465 that has to come from other sources. The median 401(k) account has $149,400 which would only provide a fixed income each year of $9,073- only one fourth of the $39,465 needed. To generate that $39,465, households have to have $636,673, and only 8% of American households approaching retirement have that amount. Half of the families have other pension income of $26,500 a year, which added to $9,073 in 401(k) income gets the total income up to $35,573. Other studies using different data by the Employee Benefit Research Institute show results that are largely similiar. The Employee Benefit Research Institute, is supported by 401(k) providers. Its estimate of the median person is based on individuals in the 60's who have worked at the same company for more than 30 years. This data shows an estimated median person having about $158,754, not much different from the Fed data. Why is the amount in most Americans 401(k) savings so low? There was a mistaken sense that a 6% annual contribution, with a 3% company match would be enough. Vanguard Group says the current median amount that people contribute is 9%, counting the employer contribution. Now Vanguard is advising people to contribute more, 12 to 15%, including the employer contribution. Other problems for the low savings is that saving started late, or contributions were suspended after a job loss, or medical emergencies, other debt. The stock market collapses of 2000-2002 and 2007-2009, added to the problems, by wiping out a portion of the savings. The low rate of interest on savings for most of the last decade hurt even conservative investors and lowers the kind of retirement account income used by seniors. The way people are coping with this is to work longer, in some cases into the 70's, cutting down on spending for food, travel, and taking greater risks for higher returns, risks that could make the situation worse....

LyrArc Article Gist
The WSJ cites polls in Italy Feb. 8, before the two week blackout prior to elections on Feb 24-25. The polls cited show the Centre left PD coalition of Luigi Bersani at 35% of the vote, the coalition of Silvio Berlusconi at 28%, the centrist Monti parties at around 10%, and the surging Five Star Movement of Beppe Grillo in a range around 20%. The Monti centrist parties are facing difficulty because of the austerity measures taken by Monti's government in 2012. The Economist cites higher figures for the Monti centrist parties at 14% and puts Grillo's party at about 15%, showing the variations in poll figures. WSJ cites figures showing undecided vote at about 20% of voters, about 5 million voters being undecided. Voter turnout is also a factor, with less than the 80% voter turnout of 2008 expected in the current vote. The regional vote which determines the composition of the Senate shows Grillo likely to lead in Sicily, and the vote divided evenly between the PD party and Berlusconi's coalition in Lombardy. The best outcome for the eurozone is one in which the PD party wins, but not with a majority large enough for it not to need the support of the Monti centrist party, which is supported by Italy's business community and favored by the EU and Germany. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A proposal to transfer debt in excess of 60% of GDP of all eurozone countries into a single fund to be paid off in 25 years is gaining attention in Germany. It is seen as finding acceptance with Germany's Constitutional Court. Angela Merkel, the German chancellor, says eurobonds are unconstitutional in Germany. Germany calls instead for greater European integration and transfer of powers from sovereign governments to a European banking supervisory authority. In early June 2012 discussions continued in Berlin between Manuel Barroso, president of the European Commission and Angela Merkel of Germany. The German position is summarized in the words of German finance minister Schauble, when he said that Germany could not hand over its credit card to other countries.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mistakes French bank Societe Generale made with acquiring a controlling stake in Greek bank Geniki. Credit Agricole bank had a similiar experience with its stake in Greek bank Emporiki. In 2010 Societe Generale was forced to set aside 400 million euros for bad loans. Credit Agricole had to remove the CEO and higher executives in 2009 before introducing good loan criteria at Emporiki. Today Emporiki has loan loss provisions of 12.5% of gross loans, and Geniki has 21%, according to analysts. Dirk Hoffmann-Becking, analyst at Bernstein Research, estimates that a default that took out 30% from the value of these Greek banks loan book and 70% from Greek government bonds would result in a loss of 3 quarters of earnings for Credit Agricole and for Societe Generale 1.5 quarters of earnings. This would mean that the French banks would take 3 quarters longer to get their capital reserve ratios to 9% for new Basel III regulations.

LyrArc Article Gist
Thomas Frank writing about the public outrage about executive compensation quotes Bill Black, a Professor of economics and law at the University of Missouri-Kansas City, who makes an important point. Beyond the size of this compensation there was something else happening that was perverse in its design and in its effects. Black says that at each point in the development of the disaster of mortgage securitization, it was the pay for performance systems that sent the wrong signals to loan officers, real estate appraisers, accountants, and bond rating agencies. The compensation or reward systems actually encouraged wrong, unethical and ultimately disastrous behaviours for the companies and the economy. Another way to look at it, the way it happened on Wall Street- especially at Merrill Lynch and some other financial institutions- the bonuses and other compensation was a way for executives to recklessly milk (loot is the other word) the companies for all they could yield regardless of the results afterwards. And as Black says, to do this through normal corporate mechanisms. A whole range of behaviours of this type took place in the final years of the boom. See other articles by Thomas Frank. ...