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The sharp decline in share prices of GM and Ford since the IPO offering for GM in 2011. Analysts say the shares are pricing in a 15% decline in sales for Europe in 2012.

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A report of the Transportation Department shows that over the past 8 months Americans have reduced their driving by more than 40 billion miles. Higer gasoline prices led to Americans driving less. In April 2008 Americans drove 1.8% less miles than the year earlier April, and in May this increased to 3.7% fewer miles than a year earlier. And this trend is not going to change or go back as as happened previously. So its a permanent feature of the new landscape according to experts. Everythng the kinds of cars people drive (smaller and fuel efficient), where people live (closer to work, and in closer proximity), the way they drive (less and use bicycles and small Smart vehicles also), and the way they use alternative transport ( frequent use of mass transit and better quality of mass transit with new investment), all tis is about to change permanently. The way the USA funds road and bridge repair and maintenance and new road and bridge construction is through gasoline taxes at the federal level (18.4 cents a gallon) and state taxes. With reduced driving there is less money available to fund these road projects. But this happens at a bad time because existing road and bridge infrastructure is crumbling. About 25% of the country's bridges are in bad shape or obsolete or structurally deficient and one in seven miles of roads are in bad shape according to the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission, and most people can see this when they drive around intheir cities. And big increases in the cost of asphalt and other construction materials are only compounding the problem. The Commission says it will cost $225 billion a year to tackle national transportation infrastructure needs. Worse still only 40% of this is getting funded. So a huge gap in funding looms and Congress is being pushed to come up with funding solutions as states struggle to deal with the problem....

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India agrees to an immediate ceasefire after a call from Pakistan's head of military operations for a ceasefire. The conflict started with attack on tourism that was reviving the Kashmir economy after three decades through a terrorist attack killing 26 tourists in Phalgam, Kashmir on  April 22, 2025 in the mountains near the Pir Panjal range. 24 million tourists visited Kashmir in 2024. Indian response was swift on May 7 early morning hours attacking 18 terrorist camps inside Pakistan occupied Kashmir and inside Pakistan. India called it a act of self-defense to Pakistan sponsored state terrorism going back to 1947. What is different in this brief 4 day war is that India made it economic with efforts at IMF to make terrorism an issue for loans to Pakistan, and ending the Indus Waters Treaty on water sharing. Pakistan economy is struggling with no debt relief from China, making it turn to the IMF, a politically split population with Opposition leader Imran Khan in jail, and continued domination by the military over civilian govenrment. On May 9 drone attacks were launched from Pakistan using Turkish made drones in large numbers on cities and towns in Gujarat, Rajasthan, Punjab. Blackouts were placed in India by May 8 in all cities in the north and in Pakistan. India responded with its own drones and missile attacks on three military airbases as the war broadened to military targets on May 10. US mediated a ceasefire through Saudis and Turkey. Earlier Saudis and Iran were in New Delhi with whom India has good relations to get a ceasefire. Mr. Trump's efforts behind the scenes secured an agreement. VP Vance had cut short an Indian trip in Jaipur on April 22. India and the US are allies in the Indo-Pacific, and India and Russia have decades of friendly relations. China now uses Pakistan as a proxy state, but does not provide the economic aid it needs, for which it has turned to the IMF.    ...

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Blackberry's new smartphones fail to compete with phones from Samsung, Apple and other competitors. Under CEO Chen Blackberry sales decline further with a net loss of $423 million in the fourth quarter of 2013. Revenue decline was 64% to $976 million for the 4th quarter 2013. The cash position declined to $2.7 billion from $3.2 billion the prior quarter. In a remarkable reversal older Blackberry phones outsold new Blackberry 10 smartphones launched in 2013. Older Blackberry 7 models sales were 2.3 million compared to 1.1 million for the newer Blackberry 10 models, a situation unheard of in the smartphone industry.

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European Union and at its heart Germany cut oil and gas use by 25% over a short period. The WSJ looks at one company that makes agricultural machinery such as harvester combines in Germany, and how it did this. The lesson from this experience- long dependent on cheap oil and gas supplies from Russia Germany was not expected to bounce back and cut its use sharply, when prices of Russian gas increased 20 fold. Not only did this German company slash gas use by 30% by making technical changes in how the machinery operated, and by using oil pipes, storing LNG from other countries such as Britain and Norway.  A 6% decline in sales to eastern and central Europe was offset by a 35% growth in sales in the US. By pivoting to the US German manufacturers have increased sales. The US has also become a major supplier of LNG to Europe. This makes it possible for Germany to conduct its own policies free of the kind of influence Russia exerted on Europe. So what does the CEO of German company Claas say about this experience- he says the export model is robust but in a different form with the US Europe's and Germany's biggest partner. The lesson of the past few years says CEO Bock- "Don't be dependent on one country." Not Russia, and not China. ...

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Orlik cites a 2011 survey from China's South Western University of Finance and Economics, which surveyed 8000 households and found that 55% of Chinese households had little or no savings for that year. 10% of households control 86% of wealth and 56% of household income. Surveys in 1995 and 2002 showed 10% of households controlled 31% and 41% of wealth. In the U.S. top 10% of households control 74% of the wealth, according to the Federal Reserve figures. What this means, says Orlik, is that before China can shift to consumption based growth the low incomes of the majority of households have to go up, requiring a major policy shift. Under current policies and even with movement in the direction of the DRC/World Bank policy report for China for a gradual shift away from state owned enterprises, there is little prospect for rebalancing the world economy.

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GM's joint venture with Luizhou Wuling Motors has produced a win-win situation for both companies. Wuling was a small, regional manufacturer when the joint venture started. Now Wuling has more than 1 million in unit sales. And GM has benefitted from the rapidly growing sales. Year over year sales were 29% in 2010, and were slowing to 10% in 2011, with the end of government incentives. Wuling vans can now be sold under the GM brand in India, using lower cost manufacturing in China. Looking back this was good for GM. The future however has some twists and turns and could turn out to be different. Wuling joint venture will produce cars at a lower price point under the Baojun brand. These cars were shown at the Shanghai Auto Show, and will be marketed to customers who are looking for affordable cars in the second and third tier cities in China. The Baojun brand joint venture will have one difference. This brand involves intellectual property being held in common with Wuling Motors. This is part of China's new plan for American and European manufacturers in China- the price of access to the Chinese market is greater technology sharing with Chinese partners. In the long run this should enable Chinese manufacturers to be dominant inside China. This process is already underway. According to J.D. Powers, Chinese brands had 32% of the domestic passenger vehicles market in 2010, up from 18% in 2000. Something similiar happened with Japan, where Nissan was making Britain's Austin A40 series in the mid-1950's. By the 1960's the foreign tieups were replaced by Japanese manufacturers dominant in the home market and exporting their own models. ...

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Trump wins 32% of the vote in the South Carolina primary, to 22% for Cruz, 22% for Rubio, with Bush, Kasich and Carson winning over 7% each. Jeb Bush ended his campaign after the disastrous result in South Carolina. Trump showed support among independents and evangelical Christians. Undecided voters at the last minute voted for Rubio and Cruz.

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There are differences between the governors of 10 worst hit states and the president of the U.S. on when to reopen the economy. The seven on the East Coast including New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Massachusetts, and three on the West Coast including California and Washington, all but one have Democrat governors and want to wait beyond May 1, till it is believed to be safe to reopen.190,000 of the 592,000 infected cases and over 10,000 of 25,000 cases of deaths are from New York alone. This is as though a third of the problem is in one state. The feeling in New York is that it should be the last to reopen, other states can go first in the middle of the country. The position in the U.S. Constitution is for states to maintain public order and safety. This was the basis of the president's position to work with the governors and continues to be the case, though there is pressure from economic advisers to the president to reopen earlier balanced by the opinion of health experts around the president.  Some states are taking action to reopen because the virus has not severely affected these states. President Trump says it is for governors to decide what is best for each state in consultation with the federal government. The U.S. government would step in if a state is taking risky action with the coronavirus. On the issue of whether the president could have acted quickly in February following his decision to stop flights from China and set up quarantines in January, the BBC has this to say. Dr. Fauci, the president's respected health expert was one of many public officials who did not see the magnitude of the crisis evolving with lack of good information from China. BBC North America Editor Jon Sopel cites Dr. Fauci's comments on February 13- that the coronavirus danger is "just miniscule" compared with the "real and present danger" of flu. As it happened the president acted alone in his sense of the danger from the outbreak in China through incoming flights and not relying on others. Here is what the situation of each country on reopening is- India -  has extended the lockdown to May 3. France - has extended the lockdown till May 11. U.S. - has extended the lockdown to May 1. States are taking the responsibility. UK - continues lockdown restrictions till May. The French president Macron had a simple answer to the question " when will we be able to get back to a normal, prior life?" Macron said "Quite frankly, humbly, I have no definitive answer to that." Some nurseries and schools will reopen May 11. Not restaurants, hotels, museums and theaters. By May 11 France will be able to test and quarantine anyone with symptoms and general public masks will be available to all. This is what Dr. Fauci in the U.S. also wants to see before being able to reopen, that testing and tracing, isolating, procedures be efficient and reliable. ...

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As the deadline of July 22 approaches for the 160,000 members of the UK Conservative Party to elect a leader, former Foreign Secretary Boris Johnson and the current Foreign Secretary Jeremy Hunt are running for the leadership position. Boris Johnson has 68% member support with Hunt at 23%, according to YouGov survey. Both candidates are in favor of Britain leaving the European Union without an agreement. Hunt has stated he would cancel leave for Britain's 16,000 civil servants in August to prepare for the departure of Britain from the EU by October 31.  Only 27% of Conservative Party members believe Mr. Hunt can do the preparation needed for an abrupt exit after 45 years of economic integration with the European Union. By contrast 90% of members think Johnson would do the preparation needed. Preparation is needed because of food and medical supplies trucks and in flights awaiting customs at border points. The result could be chaotic without adequate preparation. Under a Johnson government many ministers would leave the government including Mr. Hammond who runs the finance ministry. He is expected to join rebel ranks in the Conservative Party that does not think an abrupt exit like this is good for Britain. If these members in the House of Commons join Labour party members they could vote to block this from happening. Britain's opposition Labour Party led by Jeremy Corbyn has finally decided to call for a second referendum if Johnson pushes to leave the EU abruptly, and to campaign wholeheartedly this time for staying inside the EU. During the last referendum Labour leaders did not push hard for Remain, and David Cameron as prime minister and head of the Conservatives proved to be a weak and ineffective leader using the promise of a referendum as a ploy to win votes for the Conservatives in an earlier election and then finding himself stuck with promises made in the election with his party's right wing led by Johnson. Years of austerity policies promoted by Germany in the EU after a flawed entry of southern European countries with faulty not transparent finances such as Greece too early  into the eurozone had soured Britons on the EU. The friendly migration policies of German leader Merkel for economic as well as war torn country migrants from North Africa finally not just soured Germans on Merkel policies but also soured British working class families struggling to make ends meet and seeing migration as taking British resources that were needed at home. This has split most of Europe including Britain along lines of the major cities and the rural areas plus smaller towns, and in Eastern Europe, East Germany region along the lines of the old Soviet bloc countries which with deeply conservative thinking do not favor such migration policies. These divisive changes have taken place over along period of decades and will take time to heal through economic recovery and a fairer distribution of wealth, better investment in infrastructure, health, education, public services, neglected during the Tech driven flawed investment diversion of economic resources. Yet the hope of this type of change if grasped by Britons as well as Europeans could bring new life and revive the vision of a Europe with shared benefits for all Europeans, not just a French-German project. For this to happen new leaders have to rise to the challenge inside Britain and the rest of Europe.      ...

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairman Bernanke, says the Fed will keep interest rates low till unemployment reaches 6.5%, as long as inflation remains at about 2%. If unemployment reaches 6.5%, and this is because more people are dropping out of the labor market, he will take this into account. If unemployment stays high the Fed indicated in its statement that it would tolerate a higher inflation of 2.5%, as long as the longer term outlook was for inflation to be at 2%. Bernanke said this doesn't mean monetary policy is on autopilot, because the Fed will watch conditions carefully and will leave room for flexibility- keeping an eye out for new asset bubbles that could develop, and monitoring labor market conditions and inflationary pressures and inflation expectations. If inflation falls well below 2%, or unemployment rate falls mainly because of people dropping out of the labor market, the Fed may continue to keep interest rates low. This policy was announced as U.S. fiscal cliff deficit negotiations continued in Dec. 2012 with one scenario being considered by both political parties being going over the Jan. 1 deadline before coming to an agreement. Bernanke pointed to this, saying "this is a major risk factor right now." The Fed's activist policy in economic policy has given financial markets and business a measure of stability not provided by government and Congress. Fed policy is to buy $40 billion of mortgage securities, and $45 billion of long term Treasury securities for each month in 2013. It will fund the purchases by adding reserves to the banking system, which is to say that it will print money to buy more bonds. This is a major decision by the Fed in that the Fed has shied away from unemployment targets in the past. Bernanke described this action as a new"automatic stabilizer" in the U.S. financial system- if unemployment rises investors know this pushes the Fed's interest rate increases further down the road and would drive interest rates down, if unemployment drops sooner than expected, investors anticipating Fed's rate increases would drive long term interest rates up, to keep stable growth....

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Countries which ignored the lessons of the 1997 financial crisis are affected to a larger degree in the 2014 emerging markets financial crisis- Argentina, Turkey and Thailand have high government gross debt as a percentage of GDP. Investors are taking a careful look at individual countries this time and there is less contagon. Flexible exchange rates, and higher foreign exchange reserves are reducing the effects in 2014. The effects on the U.S. and Europe are limited to how this affects the global economy.

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Iran plans an ambitious $50 billion investment program to expand oil and gas output in the next 4 years. About half of that coming from Iran and the rest from outside oil companies. Iran expects to earn $54 billion in oil exports in 2006 vs. $47 billion in 2005. Iranian production represents 5% of global supply, about 4 million barrels a day. Only about 2.5 million of this is available for export. Iran has 2 problems in oil use and production. Gasoline use is growing at about 10% a year. And oil production is declining by about 5-6% a year from existing fields. The investment program over the next 4 years would increase production from new fields by about 1.3 billion barrels, but with existing fields generating less each year this will only generate about 500,000 barrels of additional output beeyond the 4million barrels today. And with domestic use growing rapidly and new refinery capacity being added to meet domestic demand of 500,000 barrels a day even this would leave no more for export than the current level of 2.5 million barrels a day, or probably less with growing gasoline use inside Iran. These are Iranian Oil Minister Vaziri Hamaneh's numbers. What this means is that with economic sanctions the whole global supply picture and the world price of crude oil would be seriously affected by economic sanctions in the next 4 years, as the 2.5 million barrels a day export number would be reduced by the increase in domestic consumption of gasoline by 10% a year, and the decline in existing fields of 5-6% a year. In the short term two year horizon this adds upto loss of some 700,000 barrels a day, about 400,000 from decline in existing oil fields and 300,000 in increased domestic use, which are no longer available for export. Hamaneh pointed to the investment as evidence of Iran's good intentions as a supplier in an interview with te Wall Street Journal. He says Iran sees the importance of preserving its credibility as a reliable supplier. It does not want to cause hardship to consumers around the world. Another reason for the pragmatic position taken by Hamaneh is that Iran depends on oil exports for 40-50% of government revenue....

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Novartis is taking a new approach to drug research and drug discovery. The old one which was popular in the drug industry was to go directly for blockbuster drugs for large numbers of users, with a long time in the research pipeline because the area of research was largely an unknown. This was costly and becoming less and less productive. Dan Vasella who heads Novartis, is taking a different approach which comes from his understanding of medical science as a physician, in an industry run by accountants, lawyers and business people. This is to go after wellknown molecular pathways identified by Dr Fishman at Harvard in his research, and do this by taking on problems in diseases that afflict small numbers of people. These drugs have some established medical science to work with, and the research work takes a shorter period. Once the drug proves its effectiveness in one illness, it is tested for other illnesses that afflict a large number of people but which shares some of the same underlying phenomena that cause the disease in the two situations. Dr Vasella stumbled on this approach after the development of the drug Gleevec by Novartis. Gleevec was originally approved for a rare blood cancer, but has now shown to be effective against six other dieases. Gleevec brought 3.7 billion in revenues in 2008 for Novartis. In 2002 Vasella made a bold move to discard the old drug development model. The basis of this approach was to go after new drugs that were desperately needed and where the genetics of the illness were well understood. Whereas pursuing rare dieases is considered foolhardy by most drug company leaders, Vasella's idea is to use the common genetic underlying arrangements for that drug to go after other diseases that would be good prospects for the now proven drug. The known genetics makes it possible to complete the research in a shorter time. In 2009 Novartis has 93 drug candidates in the pipeline, 40% more than 3 years ago and 80% of Novartis' drugs last year made it from early testing to late stage development. This was a 60% improvement over 2005. The new approach fits the current regulatory climate, with regulators concerned more about safety, and Medicare and Medicaid and other payor less willing to pay for treatment with modest benefits or with uncertain outcomes. The approach had to be executed in terms of organization and staffing. Vasella moved the R&D global research operation from Basel to Cambridge, Massachusetts, and spent $4 billion on the move. He recruited a renowed researcher and cardiologist at Harvard University, Dr Mark Fishman, who had done research on the genetic mutations in the cardiovascular systems, to run the center and set the new direction for global research. Fishman convinced Vasella that medical research should focus on a small number of molecular pathways- the complex suquences of interactions among chemicals, proteins, and larger cell structures in the body that are behind all illnesses. Says Fishman, there are 24,000 genes in the genome, but only a few dozen pathways conserved through evolution. Fishman's theory is that you find all the links in a pathway and then locate the signals that can turn the genes on or off to develop medicines for illnesses. Bercause disease after disease share a common pathway, the knowledge gathered can then be applied across that region with more accuracy and directly, to address a range of illnesses. Fishman's approach means marketing and sales no longer make the decisions. There is a new method for doing things. Fishman focusses on clinical data and insists that commercial analysis comes after sufficient clinical data. A major restructuring in 2007 led to shedding 1260 sales and marketing jobs, as clinical science now takes precedence and medically trained scientists take senior leadership positions. The new approach is being used for a drug developed for Muckle-Wells syndrome. Computer simulations are shortening the time to late stage trials. The drug has applications for Type 2 diabetes and severe arthritis. The whole process will take many years, as its a sea change for the industry and for Novartis, a fresh approach when the approach used by the pharmaceutical industry for so long is failing. An oral drug treatment for multiple sclerosis is being developed along these lines. Afinitor. approved by the FDA for kidney cancer in March shows potential in six other diseases, including lymphoma where Afintor shrank tumors by 50% in one third of the patients in a trial. ...

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News on several fronts in June 2009. On housing, a month to month improvement but still stuggling compared to a year ago levels. The Commerce Department said that an increase in multifamily units led to housing starts jumping 17% in May from April to a 532,000 annual rate. Compared to ayear ago level housing starts was down 45% from May 2008. There were 10 times more homes for sale in April as sold that month, with the typical ratio at 6. With layoff, tight credit and rising mortgage rates laying aheavy hand on these markets, even as developers cut prices deeply to clear unsold homes. On Manufacturing. Industrial production fell 1.1% in May from April, according to the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization fell to 68.3%. See the graph for the steep drop for auto and auto parts manufacturing. On inflation. The producer price index showed its largest decline in 60 years, according to a Labor Department report. The PPI was down 5% from one year ago, the biggest decline since 1949. It went up from April to May by 0.2%. Part of this was rising oil prices. The core PPI which excludes food and energy dropped 0.1% in May from April. Rising oil prices, a falling US dollar and stabilization in the economy are reducing defaltion risk. At the same time the sign that inflation is not taking root are clearly evident in the slack that is building up with the drop in the capacity utilization rate to 68%, and further declines expected as the auto industry shrinks in 2009, with the huge overcapacity worldwide in that industry. ...

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Peter Coy, Economics editor of Business Week, agrees with Paul Krugman's point made in a recent NYT op-ed column favoring staying on the course the Bernanke Fed has set, which is to continue its policy of monetary expansion as long as credit is tight and the economy is weak. The Fed has expanded monetary reserves Coy says by 114% over this year through May. The biggest increase since 1960 has been 16%. Coy says there is good reason for this. As other experts have pointed out, see links, most of the extra money the Fed has introduced into the economy has piled up in the reserves of banks. Consumers who who have debt at about 100% of USA GDP are not borrowing, businesses are not borrowing to invest, banks are not lending as before, and consumers are in a long period of debt reduction that will take years. This is why it is not inflationary. Consumer frugality, see links, is another factor that makes this situation a long term change in consumer behaviour, and a force for deflation. All this is happening in the background of a huge slack in the system as manufacturing capacity utilization is low at 68% and unemployment is increasing. Which is why informed experts looking at the situation on the ground see staying the course as the right action plan....

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A transcript of remarks by Ben Benrnake as Fed Governor on Dec. 9, 2003, at meeting of the Federal Open Market Comittee which makes monetary policy in the USA. Bernanke is teling his colleagues here that it would be amistake to choke off growth unnecessarily by raising rates, that critics who say inflation is a threat are not well informed, and that the Open Market Comittee should remain patient. Here he points out that the large decline in the share of the population that is working -with one survey showing household employment at 2.9 million jobs below normal at that time- suggesting that employment could rise significantly before seeing pressure on wages and unit labor costs. With the underutilization of labor, the withdrawal of people from the full time labor force, and increase in parttime employment, there are todfay anumber of changes ocurring in the labor markets that build additional slack into the system from what the unemployment rate of 9% today would suggest. A similiar case could be made today with factory capacity utilization at 68% and dropping, and manufacturing hard hit and seeing a permanent downsizing in industries like automobiles. What about raw materials prices? Bernanke shows agraph of historical data, that suggest convincingly he says, even very large movements of raw materials prices appear to have muted effects on intermediate goods prices and no discernible effects on final goods inflation. The reason for this is that raw materials prices are only asmall portion oftotal costs, and unit labor costs are a far larger factor in inflation determination that raw materials prices. And at that time as is happening today wage growth is slow or negative. What about the dollar falling in value making imports more expensive, which we face today? Here Bernanke says that asimilar anlysis applies to the dollar. Large movements of the dollar he says, translate into smaller movements against the U.S. trade-weighted basket of currencies, and into smaller effects on import prices because of imperfect pass-throughs. And he goes on to say that the nonoil import prices, in turn, are are a relatively modest part of the overall price index, making the ultimate effects quite small. This analysis by Bernanke of the impact of rising raw materials prices and falling dollar having a muted effect, and the important role slack and underutilization of labor in the labor markets play in inflation, helps respond to critics like Laffer and others who say inflation is a threat and call for changes in the policy course the Fed has set....

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Thirty minutes after trading started at the Shanghai Stock Exchange on Jan. 6, 2016, circuit breaker mechanisms were triggered following a decline of 7%. This followed a similiar circuit breaker trigerring on Jan. 4, 2016. This time investor anxiety was over a devaluation of the renminbi by the government. This triggered a drop of 3.5% in Germany's DAX index and 2.2% in the S&P 500 index. Faulty communication and confusing signals to markets by the central bank PBOC, and securities regulator CSRC, also played a part in increasing investor anxiety. Similiar problems were seen in summer 2015.

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Soren Skou, the head of the container division of Demark shipping line A.P. Moller Maersk A/S, says the volumes worldwide are expected to increase by 4% in 2012 over the prior year, compared to the 7% increase in 2011. This reflects the deteriorating conditions especially in Europe for goods from China. China is also losing competitiveness in relation to countries like Vietnam and Bangladesh for shoes, toys and labor intensive goods. Tim Smith, Maersk's head for the North Asian region, says the container shipping industry will see annual growth slow from double digit increases to somewhere between 5 to 7%.