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Malaysia's debt to GDP ratio increased to 242% in mid-2012 from 192% in 2008 according to McKinsey. As export growth has slowed the Malaysian government is relying on credit expansion to consumers and large capital projects such as the planned subway project in Kuala Lumpur to sustain growth. Similiar credit expansion is seen in other Asian countries- Thailand, Vietnam, Singapore, Hong Kong. The period 2008 to 2013 has seen a rapid acceleration in credit expansion in these countries and especially in China. China's debt to GDP ratio increased to 183% in mid 2012 from 153% in 2008, according to McKinsey. Nomura Holding's economist Zhiwei Zhang, and other economists say it is above 200% when government data on "shadow banking" lending institutions such as trust companies is included. IMF economist Giovanni Dell'Ariccia has studied of debt expansion and credit booms since the 1970's. He and other economists at the IMF have found that credit booms- the rapid increase in credit to GDP ratios- end up in crises one third of the time, result in below par growth in another third of the time, and only in one third of the time does growth continue at the high pace. Alex Frangos talks to government officials in Kuala Lumpur who do not take seriously the high vacancy rate for office buildings in the capital of about 20% even as new office towers are being built. Bob Davis gives the example of government owned Hunan Expressway company in China which has a huge road building program and doubled its 2009 debt levels. Another state owned company in shipping China Cosco Holdings increased total debt from 85 billion yuan in 2009 to 123 billion yuan in 2012. As export growth slowed in China in 2009 credit expansion is driving growth. The normal restraints of the market are absent in China's state owned companies. Charlene Chu, senior director of Fitch Ratings Inc in Beijing, says 2012 demonstrated that the Chinese government cannot slow credit growth without risking a decline in growth. China's GDP growth in the 1st quarter of 2013 slowed to 7.7% from 7.9% in the 4th quarter of 2012. This poses a serious problem for China. China has never experienced the kinds of problems seen in Asia after the 1997 banking crisis, in the eurozone today, and in the U.S. following the financial crisis of 2008, making government officials prone to complacency about the risks....

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Lower oil prices, higher corporate profits, and restrained spending, lead to improvements in Japan's budget deficit. There is a 24% increase in corporate taxes in Japan's budget estimates for 2015 compared to Dec. 2012 when prime minister Abe assumed office. This will help reduce the budget deficit. The budget assumes an oil price of $69, making the budget plan achievable with prices below $50 in Jan. 2015. For the next fiscal year tax revenue is expected to increase by 5.4% over the prior year, with half of the increase from the sales tax increase and the other half from the higher economic growth. Budget projections assume 3.6% global economic growth, exports up by 5.2% in real terms, and imports up 3.9%. Spending is kept under control increasing by just 0.5% from the current fiscal year budget, and borrowing reduced by 11%. The government plan is to produce a primary budget surplus by 2020, and cut the deficit by half in the primary budget which excludes bond issuance and interest payments, by fiscal 2015....

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Wall Street Journal reporters Walker in Berlin, Forelle in Brussels, and Meichtry in Rome, reconstruct the events during critical days after the indecision and failure to reach agreement during the July summit of eurozone countries. This took the form of intervews with leading players and over 25 policy makers. What emerges are accounts of how Germany's Angela Merkel, daughter of a Lutheran pastor, and protege of Eurozone founder, former German chancellor Helmut Kohl, handled the crisis. Merkel was widely criticized in the media for indecision. What emerges is an account of a leader who took decisive action at key moments in the crisis- leading to the formation of new governments in Greece and Italy taking action to improve finances, and negotiations with banks represented by the International Finance Corporation leading to acceptance by banks of a 50% loss on loans to Greece to reduce Greece's unsustainable debt burden. Merkel also worked with the European Central Bank's departing president Frenchman Claude Trichet and new president Italian Mario Draghi to resist French president Sarkozy's efforts to have the ECB assume responsibility for the crisis through large scale buying of Italian and Spanish bonds; which was opposed by German public opinion as a backdoor way of having German taxpayers assume responsibility for European debt. Shown are three critical moments when Merkel intervened. In October 2011, after Italian prime minister Berlusconi reneged on promises to make pension and other reforms to improve Italian finances because of political resistance. He survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote by one vote. Merkel took the lead on October 20, by directly calling Italian President Georgio Napolitano on the phone, to urge him to take action for forming a new government in Italy. The result was Napolitano talking with all political parties to form a new government, leading to the formation of a government by a non-political figure respected in Italy, former EU commissioner Mario Monti. A day earlier, on October 19, French President Sarkozy met ECB president, Trichet, at an event honoring him as departing ECB president in Frankfurt's Alte Oper concert hall. Trichet, Merkel and Sarkozy met in a side room. Sarkozy asked for decisive help from the ECB for large scale buying of Italian and Spanish bonds to lower yields, which had reached 7% on Italian bonds. Trichet responded that the ECB's charter did not allow it to finance governments, with the meeting ending in a shouting match between the two leaders. On October 21, EU and IMF inspectors warned that Greece's debt was reaching unsustainable proportions and austerity measures alone would not work, unless the bondholders, the European banks, took losses of 60% on their excessive lending to Greece. At this point France agreed to the German position arguing for this level of bondholder haircuts or losses, fearing the prospect of large future bailouts that would jeopardize France's triple AAA credit rating. The July 2011 summit accord had only provided for 10% in losses for bondholders. On October 27, at a meeting that went past midnight, Merkel and Sarkozy called IIF head Charles Dallara, who headed negotiating for the banks, to EU headquarters in Brussels. Merkel handed Dallara an agreement containing the 50% bondholder loss demand, and told Dallara- "This is the last offer." Merkel was saying banks would be left with nothing if they rejected it and Greece defaulted. Dallara called bankers and the IIF accepted Merkel's agreement. The final moment that October came on October 31, when Greece's prime minister Papandreou said he would call a referendum on the bailout provisions and austerity measures demanded by the IMF, the EU and the ECB. Bond markets reacted negatively to the announcement fearing a rejection and a Greek default. The Group of 20 leaders was meeting in Cannes, France on Nov. 2, 2011. Papandreou was asked to come to Cannes for a pre-summit meeting. Here Merkel told Papandreou- "the real question" for the referendum was, "Do you want to be in the euro, or not?" Days later Papandreou, lacking support in Greece from political parties and opposition inside his party, submitted his resignation. A non-political figure respected in Greece, former ECB vice president, Lucas Papademos, was appointed prime minister to head a Unity government. Polls after the appointment showed three fourths of Greeks said that this was "a positive step for Greece," with Papandreou's party getting only 11% support and the opposition led by Samaras about 20%. The criticism leveled at Merkel is that Germany should take responsibility for debt throughout the euro area through the issuance of eurozone bonds or the ECB buying large amount of bonds of Spain and Italy. Merkel faced strong opposition inside Germany and from the Bundesbank to this idea. The other criticism was based on austerity measures worsening the finances of Greece because of a lack of growth in the economy, which is true; yet Germany may see the situation in Greece as taking a long time to be resolved in any event because of excessive and faulty financial management. For Italy and Spain putting finances in order was a necessity, and austerity measures should lead to short term sacrifice but improve prospects for the long term by returning the economies to growth. Another criticism is the installation of governments that lack popular or electoral support. As the polls in Greece showed the Unity government there has far greater support and public opinion blames the politicians for the huge mess. In Italy, Berlusconi was widely seen as losing popular support when he resigned. And in Spain Mariano Rajoy, the newly elected prime minister, was elected with a huge majority in parliament following winning in local government elections. Merkel also held her own party, the Chrisitian Democrats together at the recent Leipzig convention. Mario Draghi, was elected with German support to head the European Central Bank. He has long argued for better management of Italian finances as head of Italy's central bank. Draghi was able to support Merkel with carefully planned and managed actions. First to reduce interest rates to support economic growth in a slowing eurozone. Following this with the ECB's Long Term Financing Operation in late December 2011, to provide unlimited loans to European banks at 1% interest for three years in exchange for a broadened list of collateral deposited at the ECB. In a final twist in this drama, Charles Dallara, who was a key negotiator for the U.S. Treasury in setting up the Brady Bonds- that converted bad Latin American government debt owed to U.S. banks in the 1980's into long term debt with large reductions in principal owed and lower interest rates. This was in exchange for guaranteed repayment with 30 year U.S. zero coupon bonds. Dallara was now a negotiator for the banks to reduce the chance of the very same bondholder haircuts that he had negotiated in an earlier period to solve the Latin American debt crisis. Other players in the drama were Axel Weber, head of the Bundesbank, Germany's central bank, who resigned after strong and outspoken opposition to the ECB's large scale purchase of bonds of Greece, Italy and Spain. Jens Weidmann, his protege, who replaced him. And Jurgen Stark, German representative at the ECB, who also resigned in opposition to Germany assuming responsibility for eurozone debt. ...

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China's energy investments in 2011 with a 21% stake in EDP Energias of Portugal, and Sinopec's investment in Spain's Repsol and Portugal's Galp.

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With 40% of the people living below the poverty level, and 25% of working age people unemployed, S. Africa faces serious development problems.

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Republicans increase support among Latinos from 28% in 2016 to 36% in 2020 and 37% in 2024, a one point gain in 2024. Democrats support at 68% 2016, 62% in 2020, and 56% in 2024. Both parties are talking a tough law and order line on immigration at the Border.

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Calmcations, off the track and cooler Travel- travel are trends in 2025. Calmcations as people look for less noise and more quiet. Cooler destinations are ones in northern Europe, in Scandinavia and Finland where summer temperatures are in the 20's compared to the heat in southern European locations.

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In a crucial demographic Donald Trump's provocative remarks cause a stir and a slide by 13 percentage points. In late July NYT/CBS polls show 72% support among Republican women. McCain won 89%, Romney 93%, George W. Bush 93%.  Divisive tactics hurt particularly with women, say experts. In states such as Pennsylvania this is evident, as Trump has 27% there for women overall and Clinton 58%, according to one poll. The Rutgers Center for Women and Politics has studies on how women diverge in their concerns and lives from men- from lower pay, longer life expectancy, and role of government in helping them,  to cite a few. Clinton has released television ads in 5 swing states directly appealing to mothers, showing children, and emphasizing kitchen table issues, job creation. College educated white women in particular carefully look at the issues, and make independent judgements based on character and temperament, and are less likely to ignore repeated provocative remarks or clearly sexist comments. ...

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India plans to convert 500 railway carraiges into places to keep coronavirus patients in Delhi.  Daily new cases now are over 12,000, with total confirmed cases of 320,000, deaths at 9195. Delhi bed capacity in private and government hospitals  for coronavirus is 9698 wit 4248 beds vacant. Delhi Chief Minister Kejriwal says he expects a surge and is preparing for this as the economy reopens. Delhi, Tamilnadu, and Maharashtra are the worst hit states. The lockdown of March 25 has been lifted and markets are crowded. Many businesses and workplaces are now open. And local flights have resumed.

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The EU negotiator Mr. Barnier makes a concession on the Irish backstop which was already previously rejected by prime minister May. May says Mr. Corbyn of the Labour Party, that he was not really interested in finding a solution, and has given only one hour for talks in five weeks. The Irish prime minister Varadkar says May has not offered any solutions for Brexit. May says she will give parliament the chance to vote  for an extension of the March 29 date under Article 50 or decide if it wants a no-deal Brexit.

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Coronavirus infections peak in Spain by April 4 and the number of deaths at 809 in one day is a drop from earlier in the week. Madrid is hit hard. The number of infections in one day dropped from 7472 to 7026 on Saturday April 4. Officials are looking for ways to get masks for all citizens as a way to prepare for an eventually ease restrictions. It is virtually impossible to get masks in Spain. Lockdown has been extended to April 25. 

Masks are mandatory in Austria, Czech Republic, Israel and Turkey.

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Bjorn Lomborg of the Copenhagen Consensus Center says about the decision by the Obama adminisration to stop contributing to World Bank financed coal power plants- including one in South Africa- does not take into account the simple fact that 1.2 billion people living in sub-Saharan Africa and Asia have no access to electricity. In the sub-Saharan region of Africa (excluding S. Africa) the entire electricity generating capacity is about 28 gigawatts, or about the same as Arizona with a population of about 9 million compared to 860 million in the region. He says China was able to lift 680 million people out of poverty with urbanization and industry powered by coal. There is no alternative to low cost fossil fuels for the poorer regions of the earth. This is why the International Energy Agency esimates fossil fuel generated energy to remain about the same percentage in 2035 as it is today- 81%. Shale based naural gas can make a difference for air pollution and China is begining to make the shift away from coal- for sub-Saharan Africa, South Asia, this goal will take time. ...

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Political activism and grassroots efforts- other than street protests - are increasing in eurozone countries facing high unemployment and austerity cuts. The focus is on cleaning up the political system rife with cronyism, corruption and wasteful spending. Brat and Bjork describe one such effort in the town of Torrelodones, Spain, 18 miles from Madrid. Criminal investigations in many Spanish cities have increased public awareness and participation in local government. European Social Survey based in London, reports political activity of this kind in Spain jumped from 27% in 2008 to 39% in 2010. There is an increasing sense that the political elites of the two main parties, the Partido Popular and the Socialists have failed to bring clean government and transparency to Spain. As a result progressives are joining conservatives in an effort to clean up years of wasteful spending, cronyism and corruption in government. The Union for Progress and Democracy, representing an alliance of such groups would win 13% of the vote in a national election, and the ruling conservative Partido Popular would lose half of its support and get only 22.5%, according to independent Spanish polling firm Metroscopia. The new push for transparency is one of the welcome changes at a time of austerity cuts and 27% unemployment in Spain. Many of the perks of public officials such as chaeuffer driven cars and police escorts, contracts for favored few at higher prices, are out in many cities, and accounts made public for scrutiny and change. Transparency International's transparency index shows 33 out of 110 of Spain's biggest cities scoring top grades on the 2012 index, jumping from only one. Following the example of the regional government in Navarra, the central government is drafting the first open-records law. Castilla-La Mancha, the area around Toledo, run by a clean government advocate Maria Dolores de Cospedal from the Partido Popular has taken aggressive steps to clean up the local government and wasteful spending- see the link to Castilla La Mancha. Her long term approach is to clean up government spending and accounts with the idea of preserving spending where it is most needed, in education, healthcare and vital services hit by cuts, an approach being taken in other Spanish cities. ...

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Thomas Bach is a German fencing athlete who won the Olympic Gold medal. He is from Wurzburg, Germany and was elected in 2013, in office as International Olympic Committee president till 2025. In the new election in 2025 Bach supported Coventry of Zimbabwe, a winner of the gold medal in swimming for the job, over a candidate from Spain whose father Samaranch held the same job, and COE a candidate from Britain. Other candidates were from Japan and France. The process of voting and the people voting is not representative of the world's people. As countries such as Germany and Spain are dominant. Britain and France, China and India have never elected a representative from their country as IOC president in the 20th century or the 21st. IOC presidents are there for long periods, as long as 20 years. Avery Brundage of the US was IOC president from 1952-1972  for 20 years followed by Morris of Ireland for 7 years. Following this in 1980 another 20 year term for a Spanish businessman Antonio Samaranch, whose son tried to run in 2025. In 2001 12 years for a Belgian Jacques Rogge, followed by another 12 years for German Thomas Bach.  In 20th century no one from France or Greece, no one from India or China has been elected IOC president and the election process is an insider's affair, even thought the games are watched in China, India and other parts of the world by hundreds of millions of people. ...

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During the November 2011 to February 2012 period Spanish banks increased holdings of government bonds by 68 billion euros, and Italian banks by 54 billion euros under the ECB's Long Term Financing Operation. That program helped to lower bond yields of the two countries for the 1st quarter of 2012. With Spain's economy facing more austerity measures at a time of 23% unemployment, bond yields have moved back up for Spain in April 2012. The increased holdings of government bonds by Spanish banks increases risks at a time when banks in Spain have not increased lending in the economy and hold a large number of bad mortgages in the country's housing bust.

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Fears that India may be falling behind China, Mexico and Brazil in healthcare for the people. A planned budget increase was never implemented. Today the Indian government spends only $20 billion on healthcare for a population of over 1 billion people. Annual spending on healthcare is about 1.4% of GDP. Now the Indian government is planning to increase this to 2.5% of GDP. One senior health official Amarjeet Sinha, says other emerging economies such as Brazil, Mexico, Malaysia, now have better public health indicators than India. In 1990 India's public health indicators were similiar to those countries. Another serious problem in India is malnutrition with an estimated 4 of 10 children malnourished. Underinvestment in healthcare is a significant problem as needs grow but there is a shortage of resources and trained healthcare personnel. Arvind Singhal, chairman of consutancy Technopak, says India needs an additional 1 million doctors and 2.5 million nurses to meet the needs of the current level of the Indian population. To do this 600 new medical colleges and 1,500 nursing colleges are needed. The child care advocacy group Save the Children UK, points out that just to meet India's committment to reduce the infant mortality rate by two thirds of the current level by 2015- to meet India's commitment to the UN Millenium Development Goals- India will need 2.6 million additional trained health workers. This shortage is most acutely felt in rural areas, especially in the large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar....

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The shooting of former deputy prime minister Boris Nemtsov, a leader of the opposition in Russia, in Red Square, Moscow, on Feb. 28, 2015.

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Clinton backs Obama, with a "No Way, No How, No McCain" call at the Democratic National Convention in Denver, Colorado, on August 26, 2008.

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This WSJ Exclusive report shows 1.89 million breakthrough infection cases in the US and at least 72,000 hospitalizations, 20,000 deaths among fully vaccinated people in the US this year. The WSJ reviewed medical record data for 21 million fully vaccinated people, and an array of state reports to put together this analysis. It shows people with weaker immune systems and elderly are more susceptible for breakthrough infection and hospitalization. It also shows that vigilance is necessary in following covid protocols for social distancing, masks, hand washing, as the figures show smaller but yet significant percentage of people at ages younger than the elderly are getting breakthrough infections and getting hospitalized. 3.35% of people 35-49 years who were fully vaccinated but with waning immunity from taking the shots early on and lacking booster shots to build immunity back up again, and who are breakthrough infections, are hospitalized in this WSJ analysis of EPIC's Health data. For people 50-64 years this is 7.45%. The importance of getting the booster shots has never been greater. ...

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About 40% of Americans are obese with BMI, body mass index of over 30. About 71% of Americans are overweight or obese with BMI over 25. This is a finding in a new report by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. This report does not mention a separate finding covered in the Guardian online newspaper showing less than 15% of Americans get the daily recommended intake of fruits and vegetables, crucial in preventing major diseases such as heart disease, cancer, diabetes. The cost to America for obesity related or weight related medical bills is estimated at $190 billion a year, in three years this would help renovate the aging U.S. infrastructure if people changed their habits and education was designed to help change the way Americans live. Even harder to understand is that only 2% of America's farmland grows fruits and vegetables, according to the Guardian report which says this would need to be 4% to meet the needs of the people in the U.S.. These are alarming facts and need more public awareness by this being getting widespread attention on the internet. ...

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Jacobs and Richtel of the NYT give this exceptional story of how Mexico changed between 1980 and 2016. Following the joining of NAFTA free trade zone the Mexican diet and food ecosystem began to more closely resemble the food diet system in the U.S. bringing with it severe health consequences. Soda and coke are now more entrenched in Mexico, as are fast food outlets. In 1980 only 7% of Mexicans were obese, compared to 20% in 2016, according to Institute for Health Metrics at the University of Washington. And diabetes kills 80,000 people a year, becoming the top killer according to the World Health Organization. A trade expert at Tufts University, Timothy Wise, says Mexico took on the worst aspects of a first world country like the U.S., with few protections. A similar problem is taking place in India and China as obesity grows, according to the T.H. Chan School of Public Health at Harvard, as low nutrient highly processed foods of large food companies with huge advertising budgets take a prominent place in diets. This is a growing problem for countries from Colombia to Ghana and Nigeria. ...

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Mortgages Ltd a company in Arizona which makes loans to commercial developers at rates of 12% with other fees that bring it up to 19% with no red tape, higher rates which serve about 5% of that market, went bankrupt with only 27 of 71 commercial borrowers making their loan payments. It used doctors and dentists money to loan out usually for smaller projects of $20 million under the CEO Coles' father who founded the firm, but in the last few years of the booming real estate market the younger Coles who was running the company overreached and went into larger projects in Tempe, Arizona and other places which ran into more than $100 million. These docotrs and dentists would get 9% to 18% returns on their money but as the company overextended and loaned out $928 million ten times what it had previously lent out it ran into trouble and as real estate went sour it has failed to make the interest payments to these doctors dentists and others. Mr. Coles then commited suicide recently. It gives some insight into the nature of events in the commercial real estate markets of places like Arizona....

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A lack of rules for children growing up has affected an entire generation in U.S. and Europe and other countries. Sociologists say rules are essential for children to grow up and develop the skills for living and the lack of boundaries and rules has taken away this essential component for this younger generation today. Sociologists call this "infantilizing." It has also led to  people living in their own space and not carrying on the conversations essential for young people to develop into responsible persons.  Experts say this process of responding to the rules and learning are essential developmental process to go from childhood to adolescence and adolescence to becoming developed adults. This has been compromised over the last 25 years so that the socialization process that enables transmission of values from parents to children has not been taking place. An unwillingness to have moral based judgements and tell children what is good or right has added to the weakening of this process by which children learn and develop into mature responsible adults. ...

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US president Biden gives a rousing and vigorous speech drawing a picture of his vision for the country and contrasting that with the chaos, prejudice and lack of action on key issues facing America of his predecessor. On defending democracy, on Ukraine and Europe, on the economy and jobs, on preschool and education, on pharmaceutical cost reduction, on fair taxes and cutting the deficit while investing in manufacturing and new jobs, on all these issues he drew a sharp contrast with the predecessor and former president. He also drew on the tradition of America for democracy and called on America to move forward in line with its values and decency and diversity, not go backwards in the way of his predecessor. He said it was not about being young or old as he was considered too young when he was the youngest senator of the US at 29 years of age, and now people talk of me being old. It was of not being old in the way that the oldest emotions are of hate and resentment reminding people of his predecessor's sharp language about other people and cultures. ...

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China's strategy appears to be to allow the transfer of TikTok ownership to an American consortium and focus it's efforts on renegotiating the 30% tariff on China and China's response of 10% on the US. China is making an effort to protect industries in China that have surplus production. China wants DJT to meet Xi for a Summit in Beijing instead of South Korea as the US has suggested. And Xi  offers to make a visit to Washington DC to improve relations. Scott Bessent and the USTR Greer in negotiations  with the Chinese trade negotiator Vice Premier of Economic Policy, He Lifeng, in Madrid, have come up with an agreement. The US COngress has passed legislation requiring the sale of TikTok to US owners because of sensitive information issues. China now reversed its policy in April when it opposed this as it now sees little advantage in that policy and can concentrate on better trade terms from DJT. A stumbling block is the flow of fentanyl for which DJT imposed 20% of the 30% tariff on China, the other 10% being standard for all countries. ...