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Thoughts about the U.S. election and life on a small island called Matinicus 20 miles off the coast of Maine. Eva Murray who runs the election as clerk, runs the solid waste program, operates a bakery from her house, works as a freelance writer, and is a certified pilot and emergency medical technician. One can get to the island by plane. The ferry runs about 30 times a year.

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Nikki Haley managed to get 20 to 30% of the vote in the 14 states that she lost in 2024 Super Tuesday contest- mostly moderate, higher income and better educated voters. This report says over half of voters for Nikki Haley will support candidate Trump in 2024. Of the remaining voters some may still support the Republican candidate others may support Biden or not vote. 

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The singer Pete Seeger about life after 90 - he turned 90 in 2009- and what he has learned over the years, and what he is still learning now. That includes homely stuff like how best to boil corn- he eats right, with less fat, less salt and sugar, which he says has helped him stay healthy. He lives in the house he built in Duchess county, New York. He loves to cut wood and describes the whack in cutting wood as something that started with man from the earliest times.

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As the auto market shrinks in the USA, BMW expands it S. Carolina plant. This suggests that something is happening in the auto market with BMW cutting 5000 jobs in Germany, new auto manufacturing investment into the US as it makes sense for currency reasons to manufacture in the US and not in Germany.

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At one point the ruble reaches 80 to the dollar on Dec. 17, 2014, before settling at 60. It has lost more than half its value. The architect of Russia's finances in Putin's first and second terms, Alexei Kudrin, is critical of the way the central bank and the Putin administration is handling the economy and Russia's finances.

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Norman Foster's JP Morgan Chase Building 270 Park Avenue, with 60 stories, the 1390 feet skyscraper in NY City for ten thousand Chase employees, was started in 2021 after the area around Grand Central Terminal was opened up for new buildings. It has large windows to let in more sunlight high ceilings and wide open spaces and adds a feeling of civic pride- double the air of other modern buildings and 30% more sunlight to make it livable and inviting to people and employees. WSJ reporter Michael Lewis looks at the new building and its architectural style putting naked steel beams to open sight and trying to meet human needs for space, light, and civic mindedness, openness to the city and the world.

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Denmark plans a huge wind farm project in Germany on an artificial island with 200 turbines. This will be Denmark's biggest infrastructure project. Germany plans to reduce emissions by 65% over 1990 levels by 2030. This means projects like this will be needed. Denmark prime minister Witte is on a 3 day visit to India with renewable energy projects under discussion. Germany's Economics Ministry has set up a joint working group with Denmark. 

The new project will be the size of 18 soccer fields setup on this artificial island in the Baltic Sea, to generate 3 GW enough for 3 million households. After this the project second stage is to install more turbines, for a total of 650 turbines, according to Der Spiegel. The project will cost 28 billion euros ($32 billion) with energy planned flowing by 2033.

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Everything Everywhere, is a joint venture between T-Mobile and France Telecom. It is the market leader in Britain in mobile phone services since it was formed in 2010. Now Telefonica's O2 UK and Britain's Vodafone will form a 50-50 joint venture to combine their wireless grid so that they can reduce costs, invest in innovation and setup a new broadband LTE (Long Term Evolution technology) network. This will help both companies compete more effectively in the British market. It is not a merger as both companies will continue to run competing services. This type of arrangement is becoming popular in Europe because of the high costs of building one's own LTE network, and makes sense, say analysts, because quality is perceived by customers in terms of speed and reliability of service than simply coverage. O2 sees the potential of reducing cell tower masts by 10% with the new venture.

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GM shares hit a new low of $1.52 on February 20, 2009. On February 20, 2008, one year ago, GM shares were at $25.54 a share. This is the lowest level in 70 years. President Obama's task force onthe auto industry met on February 20 for the first time.

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The Russian economy had GDP decline of 2% and was relatively not affected by the shutoff of imports of oil and gas from Europe in 2022. Gas exports to Europe began declining in the summer. The EU ban on seaborne oil from Russia and price cap went into effect in December 2022. Russia made a huge stimulus of 4% of GDP in 2022. The result is that only now in 2023 is the full impact being felt on the Russian economy.  WSJ reports that in January and February Russian exports of oil and gas revenue which makeup half of the budget fell by 46% year over year, while state spending jumped 50%. Analysts estimate that it would take a price of $100 for Russia to balance its books. Yet the Group of Seven price cap on Russian oil has brought it down to $50- the price the Ministry of Finance says Urals crude sold in February. This is a deep discount to the $80 price of Brent Crude, the US benchmark.  A bigger problem is the downward trajectory the Russian economy faces in future years. Worker shortages are severe for industry and a shift to wartime production does not add to productivity or productive capacity. The cut off from access to western technology and western financial markets will have a severe impact in the productive capacity for the economy, for oil and industrial production in the years to 2030. Russia needed to protect against the gradual shift away from fossil fuels to fight climate change by shifting the economy in a new direction using its access to western technologies not just China's technologies. Instead it now finds itself in a period of 1 year in 2022 when oil revenues surged with prices jumping from the war, and then a steady slump in all the inputs of development- supply of labor, capital and technology declining rapidly after 2023 as the costs of the Ukraine invasion are absorbed into the economy. As this report points out it is the social contract that similar to China's social contract of growth and improvement in standards of living that led to people having a large measure of confidence in the government. It was not fully grasped but it was the access to American and European Union plus Japanese technology, manufacturing, capital and markets that made this possible. With this absent the situation changes to put Russia, and China to a lesser extent as long as it trades with the west, on a different trajectory.  ...

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EU leaders, the ECB and the European Financial Stability Facility, in negotiations for a "selective default" for Greece. The ECB is persuaded to accept a selective default, with one option being to protect ECB from losses by the EFSF buying 50 billion euros of Greek bonds at cost price. Another concern of ECB about contagion is being addressed through a statment that this is designed only for Greece because "of its exceptional situation." A draft document under discussion by EU leaders has a plan for cutting the interest rates on Greece's bailout loans from 5.5% to 3.5% and doubling the repayment period to 15 years. EU officials see giving Ireland and Portugal the same interest rates on their bailout loans. The high interest rates and the shorter maturities made earlier plans unworkable. Private investors are encoraged but not required to exchange their old Greek bonds for new bonds with maturities of upto 30 years. Also being discussed is a buyback of Greek bonds at a heavy discount to face value at which they are trading. EFSF will also get new powers to make bailout loans on a precautionary basis. EFSF would also have powers to lend to eurozoe governments to help recapitalize banks and buy back bonds from other countries....

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In his monthly television address called "Mann Ki Baat" prime minister Modi apologizes to Indians for the complete lockdown of the country. Modi said "for a a country the size of India we need strong measures. Nobody likes to take strong measures, but it is the only option, seeing other countries and learning that the disease must be dealt with at the beginning before it becomes incurable."  He cautioned that social distancing did not mean emotional or human distancing. Sympathy and cooperation are needed. He called frontline healthcare and sanitation workers "warriors" and "soldiers," and promised Rs 50 lakh (5 million) insurance for 20 lakh (2 million) such workers. He also commended the work of shopkeepers, drivers, bank workers and others to keep essential services running. Modi suggested now is time "to not go out, but to look within yourself. Try to know yourself." He gave examples of recovering doctors and workers, and of finding new hobbies. In coming time he said every Indian will try to break barriers for the country's development, once this crisis has passed. ...

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Bondholders agree to a 37% writedown as Ukraine restructures $20 billion in debt. That could save Ukraine $11 billion over 3 years. Negotiations happened with Pimco, Black Rock and other companies.

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This WSJ story shows how China started its steel industry from small beginnings when Chinese leader Deng visited a Nippon Steel plant in 1978. He made the decision to go big with Baosteel, with an investment of $6 billion, with the words- "if we do it lets do it big." This was 36 times the Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the time. From 4% of steel production, this went up and up, passing the U.S. in 1993, past Japan in 1996, and in 2018 producing three times the steel of U.S., Russia and China combined, producing 923 million metric tons of steel in 2018, or more than half of world production of steel. With steel China was able to build its automobile industry, shipbuilding, bridges, infrastructure, high speed rail network. This was done using global demand, subsidies from the government, cheap loans and tax breaks. Markets worldwide were affected by substantial excess production in China. From Baosteel the spread of the steel industry to all 23 Chinese provinces led to China accounting for 25% of world exports. By 2016 5 million workers mostly from the agrarian countryside were employed in the steel industry, helping China transform itself into an rapidly urbanizing and modern economy. It was a period when the rail network was tripled between 1975-2017, with shipping companies that ensured access to Australian coal and Brazilian iron ore. From 2011 to 2017 Chinese steel dropped global prices by 57% triggering closure of steel mills in EUrope and the U.S. About a third of trade complaints since 2001 by G20 countries against China are about steel. After entry into the WOrld Trade Organization Chinese steel exports rose to 8% of GDP from 2%. Subsidies, cheap energy, and shift of agrarian workers to cities. U.S. investigations around 2006 showed Chinese steelmakers subsidies covered 30% to 45% of the subsidized value of steel pipes exported overseas. China's steel prices were set 20-40% lower than the U.S. China responded to complaints saying it was trade protectionism. The WTO rules call for full disclosing of all subsidies. This was disclosed 5 years after joining WTO in 2001, and only for central subsidies. Local government subsidies were not disclosed till 2016- the U.S. says 15 years late. Still the Bush and Obama administrations failed to take action. In 2018 Mr. Trump seized on this as a campaign issue that resonated with American workers in manufacturing communities across the U.S. In 2018 November president Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel. A six month probe by U.S. officials had already shown 40% of sales value came from subsidies for corrosion resistant steel from China. The U.S. Trade Commission imposed tariffs of its own from 39% to 241%, with the Trump tariffs of 25% coming as an additional tariff to tackle the trade surplus with China. Meanwhile in China the government is closing uncompetitive smaller steel mills and in 2016 it combined baosteel with Wuhan Steel to create a larger company, and consolidate remaining companies. Baosteel now provides the steel for CIMC to dominate the steel container business, and to make ship to shore cranes, and make the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.  It also goes to show what can be accomplished from small beginnings for countries in the developing world from Asia to Africa and Latin America, with government and industry focussed on development and growth.   ...

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Vauban is a "car- free" upscale communitynear Freiburg, Germany, close to the German-Swiss border. Except for the main street where atram to Freiburg runs, and two parking lots outside the community, there is no place to park cars. About 70% of the people there do not have cars and 57% sold their cars to come here. There are no car garages or parking places with each home. Bicycles are hte main means of transport. Vauban hasd 5500 residents in one square mile. The basic concept of having stores placed only awalk away is being followed more and more as America and Europe shifts away from intensive auto based use of space for living. The whole post war location of housing and stores and community activities was based on large use of the automobile. This is now going through big changes. David Goldberg, of Transportation of America says " how much you drive is as important as whether you have ahybrid." A fast growing coalition of hundreds of groups is advancing the cause of building communities with stores only a walk away and less need for the automobile to get around. Outside Hayward, California, Quarry Village is anew development that is trying to reduce autos to one per home. So car based is American culture that most zoning laws require 2 parking spaces per residential unit, and in the federal transportation bill 80% of appropriations in prior years used to go by law to highways and only 20% to other transport. This even though passenger cars are responsible for 12 percent of greenhouse emissions in Europe , and upto 50% in some car-intensive areas of the USA. One solution to the problem is to use smart planning to avoid the suburban sprawl, and shift to smaller more fuel efficient automobiles, and build better mass transit and rapid transit and fast rail linking most towns and cities, that will moderate all the excess that took place after the war. This may be the direction smart planning is taking us, and places like Vauban remaining niche communities for green advocates and a sort of reminder that its possible to go in this direction....

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The second wave is here in Britain with Stage 4 "exponential" increase seen in Britain. Cases could rise four fold from over 4000 today, after rising four fold in the last month Aug 20- September 20, and that could make it reach 50,000 cases a day and 200 deaths a day. New restrictions include- Masks required in all retail stores and restaurants and public places. Businesses that breach rules could be closed or shut down. Pubs, bars and restaurants close by 10 pm and only table service. Weddings and receptions limited to 10 people. Individual fines for first time breaches doubled to 200 pounds. Adult indoor team sports not allowed. This is the first response. If infection rates are not down from the over 1 R rate and the transmission increases a national lockdown is considered as the next step. To not harm the economy and strike a delicate balance all who can work from home are encouraged to work from home.      ...

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Efforts to end the use of single use plastics that are a threat to health and the environment, land, rivers and oceans.  The use of plastic water bottles has worsened the crisis. Supermarkets are slow in the US to ban plastic bags showing need for prudent regulation. Talks in Busan, South Korea, in Nov 2024 to find a solution to the plastics proliferation crisis. The plastics industry including plastics makers and recycling companies say things are under control with recycling goals, yet reports show only 30% of plastics is being recycled each year in 2024, and going back to the beginning of plastics 2 decades back only about 10% has been recycled. All the rest ends up on landfills, gets incinerated causing more pollution, or ends up on our coastlines and in the land contaminating it.