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The U.S. economy added an average of 284,000 jobs each month for October, November and December 2015. In December 292,000 new jobs were added. The monthly rate for the first 9 months was an average of 200,000 jobs. This shows the pace accelerated by Dec. 2015. In all 2.65 million jobs were added in 2015. The unemployment rate is now at 5%. Yet the wage gains are modest, at 2.5% for 2015. The average hourly wage is at $25.24. The labor force participation rate has declined for many years and stands at 62.6%, as many people are too discouraged to look for work- this is the share of Americans having jobs or looking for work. Experts say this is like a huge shadow work force existing on the side that could explain the lack of wage gains, as the official figure of unemployment is not reflecting the discouraged workers who have dropped out of the labor market.

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Simon Nixon points out the problems investors had with UBS before the Oct 2012 decision to drastically reduce the size of the investment banking operations. UBS had three fourths of its capital engaged in investment banking earning only about 5% return. Private bank and wealth management businesses earned far better returns of 25%-40%. Under the new plan core Tier 1 ratio on a fully applied Basel III basis would be 13% in 2014. And return on equity under CEO Ermotti's plan would increase to over 15% by 2015. UBS would put emphasis on the private bank and wealth management businesses under the new plan and shrink the investment banking operations with large job cuts.

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The inaction of the first President Bush during the Shia revolt in Iraq in 1991 is deeply embedded in the Shia psyche in Iraq. It is seen by the Iraqi Shiites as the original event of the Arab Spring, ten years before before the democracy movement in Tunisia. What is less known is that the revolt in Benghazi, Libya, faced the same fate of inaction by President Obama, and his administration. It was saved only by the decisive and early action of France and Britain, with French president Sarkozy leading the way. Only when the tide began to turn after the French-British action did the Americans reluctantly follow the Europeans. Germany did not participate in the NATO action and worked to slow NATO action.

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This account describes the events that preceded the raid on the compound in Abbottabad that housed Osam bin Laden. The first information came years earlier during interrogation of Al Quaeda suspects in Iraq, who referred to a courier carrying messages from senior leaders. One suspect Hasan Gul referred to an important courier in 1994, and tried to disclose as little as possible. Over several years the information was pieced together leading to the courier's location at the Abbotabad compound. There was another individual living there who rarely ventured out and a seven foot wall protected the terrace in that part of the compound, making it impossible for outsiders to see who he was. Garbage was burned at the compound, and the nature of the compound with high walls and security led the CIA to believe there was a high probability that senior Al Quaeda leaders were inside. In December the CIA asked Congressional lawmakers at a secret meeting for additional funds to finance the operation. Adm. McRaven was placed in charge of the operation. A mock compound was built in Afghanistan and the attack on the compound was practiced by Special Forces. In April, Leon Panetta, who had tracked the information about the compound as head of the CIA, held daily meetings. He told his team "we've got to find out what the hell is in that compound." On April 19, Panetta informed Mr Obama that the CIA believed Osama Bin Laden was there. The same day Obama gave the go ahead for a helicopter assault....

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Over the short run Europe presents some opportunities after Germany's Merz gets the constitutional brake on spending removed and plans $1 trillion in spending on infrastructure and defense. The US is busy with immigration and other challenges, and tariffs are part of the effort to stop fentanyl on Canada, Mexico and China. This poses uncertainty for business in 2025 which should gain clarity as most tariffs are meant to ensure a level playing field and India, China, EU, Mexico, Canada cannot argue with the idea of we charge them what they charge us, as reciprocal tariffs, as fairness in trade. These countries have reason to cooperate as it is basically fair trade DJT administration is after. Japan cooperated so history shows it can be done and Lighthizer was Deputy Trade Representative under Reagan when he got the Japanese to cooperate and be fair. His deputy is Jameson, now US Trade Representative in 2025. They are no ideologues, just fed up with the way things are and US carrying the trade imbalances and shipping manufacturing overseas that hurts ordinary Americans. US exceptionalism is seen as prevailing after a period in which American companies gain a footing in a level playing field and unfair advantages China, EU other nations had are corrected for investors in the UK, Australia, India and many European countries. It also gives American companies a chance to retool for a new business environment that can offer more opportunities and markets including in India and Europe. ...

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US frustration with Russian intransigence on ending the war. By October 2025 DJT administration pushes for an end to the war with hopes for a Budapest summit. This is delayed and the US announces sanctions on Russian oil companies on October 22, 2025, when Russia shows no interest in ending the war except on its own terms.

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This article in Zeit Online emphasizes that the deep sense of unease and anxiety about the future among working class white people is behind the shift in American politics. This shift has a lot to do with the basic identity of the U.S., the borders, and  the ability to generate decent jobs at decent wages. The populous states of the midwest in Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin helped tilt the outcome to Trump. It is pointed out that this shift is not simply a result of tax breaks for wealthy people and corporations. It goes a lot deeper than that- a growing anxiety about identity, borders and decent wages with decent jobs is what worries non college educated people who make up a larger proportion of voters in some midwestern and eastern states. Democrats also put themselves in an unsustainable position by pushing trade agreements such as TPP as an Obama legacy- even in the face of strong evidence that core working class Democratic voters, unions, and other working class groups had fervently opposed it. It is not that there are fewer liberals today- about 21% in 2012 and the same in 2016. Simply that the anxiety was too high about issues such as borders, identity, and manufacturing jobs that Democrats lost sight of. ...

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This article in The Telegraph shows the debate in the House of Commons on Syria and comments by various MP's. It also reveals the impasse on Syria with Boris Johnson of the Conservative Party using it to score points against Jeremy Corbyn of Labor Party by calling for demonstrations by peace groups at Russian embassies, and Corbyn's response to this saying all parties embassies including the U.S. should be included. By October 2016 with about 100,000 children and 275,000 civilians trapped inside the Aleppo region in northern Syria, and Russian bombings of Aleppo, the situation is dire. With U.S. president Obama's inaction on Syria, the refugee crisis in Europe from Syrian refugees exceeding 2 million in the Middle East, the situation in Syria is at the point where lacking an effective option to setup a no fly zone at this late stage the political parties in Britain and in the U.S. trade charges against each other. German chancellor Merkel and foreign minister Steinmier visit Ethiopia and Nigeria to stem the flow of refugees from economic crisis at the source with aid and support, as Germany works on its own efforts. France's Hollande tells Putin a visit to France would have only Syria as topic for discussions and calls for Syria to be brought up as war crimes. Even the Telegraph's title is misleading as the article covers the debate in the House on Commons on Syria, but the title appeals to Telegraph readers critical of Corbyn when the debate is about Syria and what action to take about the bombings.   ...

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Issues of war an peace, food supplies, climate change and renewable energy transition, world health, and other issues that relate to the wellbeing of people in the world can only be met by broadening the membership of the UN Security Council. US president Biden favors broadening the membership of the UN Security Council. Ministers of the G4 countries, Germany, India, Japan and Brazil met this week to push for reform of a UN Security Council that is now not working or dysfunctional. 

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Ford showed a profit of $1.6 billion in the third quarter of 2012. Profit of $2.3 billion in North American operations with North American profit margins of 12% helping overcome pretax losses of 468 million in Europe. In comparison to earlier years Ford held incentives down and maintained North American profit margins, earning $3500 on every vehicle sold in N. America. By comparison operating margins for Chrysler for third quarter were 4.6% and GM's margins in 2012 are about 7.4%.

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Greg Ip provides useful insights into the nature of the economic recovery in Britain compared to the U.S. by 2015. The recovery in Britain has done better than in the U.S. in job creation, but has lagged behind in productivity gains. The labor force participation rate is 72% in Britain compared to 68% in the U.S., going back up to 2007 levels in Britain, whereas in the U.S. it has steadily declined with some older working class Americans too discouraged to look for work and left behind. Stagnant wage growth is a major issue in Britain, more so than in the U.S. where wage growth is slow. Economic austerity is not the main cause of the economic difficulties as the coalition government of prime minister Cameron relaxed earlier goals for austerity by 2012 with tax revenues and growth below forecasts. The structural budget deficit has been reduced by 6.6% of GDP since the peak, and the Office of Budget Responsibility estimates the UK economy was 1.5%-2% smaller by 2013 because of the austerity policies. Britain was also affected by the eurozone crisis to a larger degree than the U.S. Productivity remains a long term challenge- with needed investments in housing, education and infrastructure, improved lending for new business, and higher tech improvement exports....

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UBS interim CEO Ermotti's career in investment banking and efforts to move UBS away from investment banking.

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Its clear from the task force's rejection of the plan GM submitted in March 2009, that the restructuring at GM was moving too slowly, too many brands, too many dealerships, no clear idea of what the new GM should look like. And a wistful look back to the past that clouded every decision. Wagoner and his team could not leave the old GM behind and clung onto too many brands, plants, dealerships, and sales numbers that were too optimistic at every turn of the economy, even as they were lowered. The task force said GM was "far too slow" to adapt and that "a substantially mmore aggressive restructuring plan" was required. That GM was just a year ago 2008 about this time still thinking in terms of sales numbers that would match Toyota's, as the largest carmaker in the world, shows how this wistful looking back at the past may have blinded GM to all the potentially dangerous bets that it was making, wihtout realizing it. Bets that the huge gap between the US carmakers and the Japanese and the Europeans in fuel efficiency and the technologies that went with it, would not someday come to hurt GM. Bets that the numbers game could be played without huge risks, that incentives related sales couild simply be inflating the market now with bigger risks ahead. That simply relying on sales revenue to support unsustainable retiree and union costs would be another dangerous bet on unsustainable sales numbers of a16 million market. The other large industrialized societies were seeing shrinking car sales, Japan, Germany, are prime examples, where sales are nowhere what they were at the peak in the postwar recovery of these industrialized countries. See the links/groups to these two countries car markets. Had GM considered the prospect of similiar declines in the US? Even if the car sales had remained at levels much lower than 16 million without the consumer buying spree and incentives, the market would be shrinking, the sales inflation simply made the sales fall that much steeper, hitting the 40% range. ...

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The comparison of China with Japan as stress builds up from overexpansion of credit in the banking system. The sharp increase in credit following the 2008 financial crisis has built up stress in China's banking system. Japan went through a period of low growth and insufficient lending by banks. Banks refinanced bad debts to zombie companies in Japan leading to a long period of low growth. China faces a similiar period of low growth after a credit expansion binge.

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Watervliet Arsenal in New York state opened during the War of 1812. It is now being revived for manufacturing in the digital age. It turns out components for Abrams tanks. Watervliet is rare says WSJ as an army operated industrial manufacturing location under Tacom.