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Patrick Chovanec of Tsinghua University, says the loan target for 2011, though smaller than 2010, will still be over one and a half times the money lent in 2008. Stephen Green, head of research for Standard Chartered, says if anyone is printing money, it appears to be China's central bank, not the US. During a meeting of the Central Economic Work Conference in Beijing goals are being set for the next 12 months. One expert predicts the governmet may set official targets of 4% inflation (it is running at about 4.7% at this time) and 6.5 trillion yuan of lending in new loans in 2011, compared to 7.5 trillion in 2010. Questions remain whether China can manage a soft landing after the huge surge in lending and the continued asset bubble.

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Chinese government data show that inflation was 3.1% in May 2010. The spread of wage increases in manufacturing after a series of strikes at Hon Hai and Honda Motor suggest that price pressures will grow even further. Analysts warn that China's central bank will have to raise interest rates to control the boom in the economy and property markets; that merely reining in credit will not work. They also suggest the need for swifter action in revaluing the yuan. As wage increases spread throughout manufacturing, this will eventually be reflected in higher prices of end products.

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Even though China has one of the largest stimulus programs, it hopes to keep its budget deficit down to 3% in 2009. But this does not correctly reflect the true cost of the stimulus program, as much of that cost is taken on at the local government level. Of the stimulus two year $585 billion investment program only one fourth is reflected in China's formal budget. Stimulus projects get quick approval and a partial financial contribution from Beijing with the local governments having to come up with the biggest share of the funds. As China's tax system channels most revenues to Beijing, the local governments are seeing an explosion of debt. These are liabilities not on the books but having the indirect support of Beijing. Without this local government debt China's total state debt is closer to 35% of GDP than the 18% shown in official numbers. See graph. And the government budget deficit will be about 4% of GDP in 2009 according to Deutsche Bank economist Jun Ma. Even before the stimulus local government debt was large, at about four trillion yuan, equivalent to 16.5%of GDP, as estimated by the Research Institute for Fisal Science, the think tank of China's finance ministry. In the first quarter new loans by state banks for infrastructure projects to government backed companies was 895 billion yuan, or 22%of the national stimulus package. Local corporate bond issues indirectly backed by the local government, totaled 102 billion yuan for Jan-May 2009. The government hopes that with economic growth and growing tax revenues paying back these debts won't be a big problem. ...

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As the market in larger cities matures, the market in Tier 2 and Tier 3 cities is where most of the growth is expected in China's market. An expanding middle class is one source of buyers. One forecast is for 51% of Chinese families having disposable income of 106,000 yuan to 229,000 yuan or between $17,000 and $37,000 by 2020, according to McKinsey. There were only 6% in that income range in 2010, showing how skewed the income distribution was, and why the growth of luxury cars has benefitted BMW, Benz and GM. A new generation of younger buyers is another source of growth- Nissan's chief planning officer, Andy Palmer estimates the youth market at 240 million. This group is being called the Transformers generation. A big surge in buying for SUV's has helped companies such as Ford Motor Company. Benz and Ford plan to add new dealerships, with Benz planning dealerships in 40 new cities and opening 100 new stores in 2014. Audi is planning a new certified used car program to keep used car resale values high....

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Juan Soto may be the most valuable free agent in American baseball sought after by the NY Yankees and the NY Mets.

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The large infrastructure investments in the high speed rail network - estimated at $300 billon- have increased the debt of the railway ministry to about 5% of national GDP in the 1st quarter of 2011.The high speed rail lines are not likely to be economically viable, with revenues not enough to pay for operation and investment costs. With the higher fares it would take 9% of monthly disposable per capita income of urbanites or 555 yuan ($86) to pay for the cheapest ticket on the 300 mile Beijing-Shanghai high speed rail line. This makes high speed rail less affordable for middle and lower income people in China. The acceleration of the program in 2008 with stimulus funds and the moving up of deadlines for completion have led to corruption, stress on suppliers, and overinvestment. The program suffered from lack of good financial management and supervision in the rush to complete the program. Lack of equitable access and affordability to income groups from a majority of Chinese people have left the impression that it was for higher income groups. Higher tolls on highways and now the higher prices on highspeed rail have left the impression among ordinary Chinese that all income groups are not being served by the large infrastructure investments....

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These days even the Lincoln Center is changing. Diversity can represent excellence, says Darren Walker of Ford Foundation, of the changes under Henry Timms breaking the walls that separate Lincoln Center from the neighborhood. The neighborhood under what was San Juan Hill changed with the building of the Lincoln Center, and Lincoln Center stayed aloof from the community around it. Timms was born in Exeter, England and went to school at Durham University, in 2008 he headed programming at the 92nd street Y. David Geffen Hall built to house the New York Philharmonic opened last year in $500 million renovation. Timms is changing the way New Yorkers approach their cultural institution and making it one for the community.

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Mysteriously Catherine Ojha, a European anthropologist, is cited here for what the word Bharat means to Indians. One only looks to the movement for freedom of hundreds of millions in southern Asia under Gandhiji to realize that it was for the freedom of Bharat that they were fighting for against the British Empire not the entity that was British India. It was the people of British India that financed Britain's defense in the Napoleonic Wars around 1800. Juan Mascaro the Cambridge historian who completed the translation of the Penguin Classics Bhagavad Gita had better grasp of India than an obscure except for French and other European language readers such as Ojha. 

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The WSJ's Yun-Hee Kim's interview with J.K. Shin, CEO of Samsung Mobile in March 2013, at the time of the launch of the Galaxy IV smartphone.

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Inflation in China and rising wages are pushing up costs for American manufacturers. The pressure on China, most recently in Congress, is helping to push up the value of the yuan. This combined trend is making it attractive for some manufacturers to bring factories home to the U.S. A trend in the U.S. towards non-unionized labor and the new trend to a two-tier wage level- with lower wages for entry level workers- and the shedding of legacy health care costs, is creating a more cost competitive labor force in the U.S. This extends from older industries such as furniture and auto components to newer industries and technology. The new factories setup in the U.S. use technologies that require a smaller number of workers, in most cases less than half the number of workers that were employed earlier. This adds another element in cost efficiency, though it means fewer jobs are created with new plants.

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In a two and half hour news conference prime minister Li Keqiang of China gives some insights into the new thinking of China's leadership on issues of trade with the U.S.,charges made against Huawei, and handling China's slowing economy. On Huawei or Chinese tech companies conducting spying for the Chinese government Li Keqiang stated: This is not consistent with Chinese law. This is not how China behaves, We do not do that and will not do that in the future." To tackle the slowing economy Li said the government is reducing taxes and cutting interest rates and the money banks are required to hold as reserves. By reducing expenditures the government will save 1 trillion yuan ($148 billion, collecting higher dividends from state firms, and retrieving unspent state funds allocated earlier. The purpose Li repeatedly emphasized is to free up credit to help private companies and prevent "layoff waves." On the trade issues with the U.S. Li believes it is not possible to uncouple the two countries economies, and said he expected the trade talks to lead to a positive outcome. China's national legislature he said passed a new foreign investment law as proof of its commitment to creating a fair environment for foreign companies, including complaint responding mechanisms, transparency in information disclosure and fast followup in issuing regulations that put the law in effect. ...

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China's shadow banking system of trust companies and insurance companies with trust company units and other informal lenders are the fastest growing part of its banking system. Between 2010 and 2012 trust companies and other shadow banks doubled outstanding loans to 36 trillon yuan ($5.8 trillion) or about 69% of China's GDP, according to J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Hidden debt that is likely to default in this poorly regulated sector is seen as a large risk in the banking system by the central bank and China's government planners. Tightening of credit by the central bank, the People's Bank of China, sent interbank lending rates from 3% to as high as 25% in late June 2013, finally settling on June 24 at 6.64%. China's state owned banks lend to trust companies in this market. Trust companies get additional financing by selling wealth management products promising investors returns of 8-10%. Even with China's high savings rate and large government reserves, the hidden debt and large unknowns about the loans in default, are seen by the central bank as posing risks to the target rate of economic growth of 7.5% if the government has to bailout a significant number of troubled banks. Much of the money funnelled through the trust companies since 2008 has been poorly invested. The trust companies such as Citic and Ping An Trust channel lending to borrowers for projects ranging from steel mills to infrastructure projects, such as highways and property developments that cannot obtain the financing through the large state owned banks. Fitch Ratings estimate is that since the financial crisis of 2009 these loans generated only one third of the economic growth per yuan as they did before 2009. ...

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Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...

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Losses at China's 3 largest airlines Air China, China Eastern, and China Southern will reach 20 billion yuan or $2.9 billion for 2008. Large capital injections and suspension of atax on jet fuel surcharges is the form of government help for these state owned airlines.

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19 percent of China's exports went to the US in 2017, in 2024 this is 15%, but wait, the difference of 4 percent it is simply coming back to the US but through Southeast Asia. As a result some of the same issues that puzzled Trump negotiators exist today. China's exports surged 12.7% in October 2024 over the prior year. Biden was facing this situation and had yet to respond to the surge in exports to US. These exports were sent to Mexico and to Southeast Asia to circumvent the tariffs. It is the same situation revisited in 2024 with two other aspects of the Chinese economy-economic stimulus gets smaller and the housing and construction industry has imploded, the economy has slower growth. The overall price level in the US with a 60% tariff plus 10% for all countries would be 0.72 addition to the price level of 1.10 percent today- that is when including the depreciation of China's yuan by 10%. as it did last time. The result would be price level in the US at 1.82%, according to J.P. Morgan. Drag on China's GDP of the Trump tariffs in first term was 0.65% according to one investment bank GS, with 60% tariffs it would be 2%. Trump secured a return of $116 billion or 58% of the $200 billion China said it would buy of US exports. The other 42%- the deal was not completed in the end. ...

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China Investment Corporation, China's sovereign wealth fund is expected to issue upto 28 billion in bonds to help recapitalize China's state owned banks. These banks face the prospect of increasing bad loans as a result of the hectic pace of bank lending in 2009-2010. Loans guaranteed by muncipal governments are estimated at 7.7 trillion yuan, or 17% of overall lending, about 50% of these loans face uncertainty in the event of falling housing prices, and 25% are bad loans. The recent IPO of Agricultural Bank of China raised funds, but the environment for raising money in this way does not look good, as information is spreading that these banks face large loan losses. The bonds from CIC would be picked up by state controlled companies. Yet these state controlled companies are engaging in the real estate speculation, as reported by David Barboza of the New York Times and Peter Coy of Business Week. In a down cycle things could get much worse as a state sovereign fund is selling bonds, state controlled companies would buy these bonds, and state controlled banks are expected to be recapitalized making a complete circle....

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WSJ's Chuin-Wei Yap provides a glimpse of life in Chengdu with the closing of the Panchenggang steel factory. The Chengdu Iron and Steel factory was started in 1958 under Mao's effort at industrialization. The city depended on the huge steel complex for jobs as generation after generation worked at the same factory. The factory was closed in 2015. Mr. Deng is a laid off worker who gets $24,000 in buyout following 26 years at the plant, and 1500 yuan or about $235 month for 2 years of unemployment benefits with required retraining classes. Economic uncertainty is faced by many laid off workers, worrying about children's college education, spouses doing odd jobs, including a pedicab run by Mr. Deng's wife. About 2 million workers in China work in steel factories, with production having reached extremely high level of overcapacity of 800 million tons. With the plant gone, the local hospital Panchenggang District Hospital, is restructured and bought by a private company, 115 doctors and other staff are offered buyouts....

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Feldstein wants to see a stronger dollar, that is less inflation eroding the value or purchasing power of the dollar at home. Abroad he wants to see a weaker dollar in relation to Europe, Japan and Canada where about half of US imports originate. And a weaker dollar in relation to lower wage Asian countries to improve America's trade balance. Better to do this now than to wait a few years when the adjustments needed would be greater. America needs to export more and import less to improve the trade balance. A competitive dollar in relation to trading partners in Europe and Asia would provide the improvement in the trade balance that the U.S. needs for keeping economic growth. With the risks to the economy from declining housing prices improving the trade balance becomes important. During the 1985-1988 period the dollar declined in value significantly, falling 37%, but the inflation rate averaged 3.1%,says Feldstein. This is what he means by having astrong dollar at home, which is to say not eroding its purchasing value, while at the same time increasing exports and reducing imports. During this period merchandise exports increased by 40% while imports increased at half that pace. A repeat of that experience is possible and necessary to maintain growth, according to Feldstein. See the link to McKinnon, at Stanford, The Yuan and the Greenback, WSJ, August 29, 2006, which cautions against anything but a very gradual and carefully managed appreciation of the yuan, giving importance to inflation and interest rate differentials between the US and China. One point to note narrowing of interest rate differentials between the US and China is seen as backdrop for dollar weakening on exchange rate basis. McKinnon appears to consider a smaller interest rate differential as a cue for an even lower appreciation of the yuan, see his example of 2% inflation in the US and 3% interest rates. Interestingly the two approaches may complement each other. Offering a perspective of China maintaining its growth and not risking deflation or slowdown, and of the US maintaining its growth and not risking a slowdown from the housing market collapse, by strong domestic investment and exports. How to keep both economies going may be the policymakers challenge for strong global economic growth....

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The Return on Equity (ROE) at China's state owned companies has dropped by half since 2007, according to this analysis in the Asia Nikkei. Swollen capital and asset levels as a result of China's response to the global financial crisis of 2008. A 4 trillion yuan stimulus package was introduced with policy initiatives to have state owned companies to make large investments in China and overseas using credit provided by the government. Recent policy moves under president Jinping have expanded the role of the state in the Chinese economy. President Xi sees the state backed companies as critical to building socialism with Chinese characteristics and critical for the Belt and Road Initiative. In a October 2016 speech he called them "essential forces with strategic importance" for the major programs including Belt and Road Initiative. Leaders of these companies are  told that "their number one role is to work for the Communist Party of China." One example of this drop in return on equity ROE is Petrochina and parent CNPC. During a period of oil prices above $100 a barrel Petrochina made investments in buying assets in oil and gas fields. Some of these assets including over $2 billion in Peruvian oil fields from Petrobras may never pay off. As a result ROE dropped to 1.9% compared to about 6-10% for western oil companies. ...

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Hon Hai, a Chinese company which makes IPads and IPhones for Apple has grown by doing high quality work for lower prices than anyone else. In the process Hon Hai has generated a culture that is tough even by Chinese standards. About 250,000 workers are employed in its factories in Shenzen alone. A series of suicides at the plant has attracted attention to the tough conditions. One worker says conversation on the production line is banned, bathroom breaks are limited to 10 minutes for every 2 hours, and the discipline is strict. Hon Hai won Apple's order says one supply-chain search expert, by pricing low. Its CEO Gou was willing to sell some components at zero profit according to people familiar with his actions. Workers come from rural areas, are very young, the first time they are away from their families, and live in dormitories, eight to ten people to a room. Hon Hai's response is to increase wages 30%. But a report about a college graduate who was asked about conditions reflects the general feeling. This graduate makes twice as much in product development, at 2000 yuan a month, or $293 a month. But the monotonous life and the feeling of no future affects this worker and may be a sign of something changing in China's factories. The unwillingness to accept the conditions that existed in the past....

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The unemployment rate drops to 7.8% from 8.1% in September according to the Labor Dept. The decline partly comes from people taking part time jobs because they are unable to find full time work. The establishment survey shows 104,000 jobs added in the private sector in September, and revises the figures for July and August to show 86,000 additional jobs created. Of the 104,000 jobs added, jobs increased in health care and transportation. Government added 10,000 jobs. Manufacturing jobs declined by 16,000, a cause for concern. A more accurate measure of unemployment is the underutilization of labor called U-6 by experts, this includes part time workers who would prefer to work full time- this has remained at 14.7% for Sept. 2012. The overall picture is that the job market remains sluggish. Because Labor Department numbers are prone to revision this could change in coming months. The slowing economy in China with the new stimulus in China coming in at one eighth the size of the old stimulus (1 trillion yuan over 4 years compared to 4 trillion yuan over 2 years 2009-2010) because of inflation concerns and risks of aggravating a property bubble, and the declining growth in the eurozone- France with zero growth in 2013 and Germany at 0.9%, Italy and Spain declining growth- means the prospects for U.S. economic growth will be lower in 2013. U.S. GDP growth was 1.3% in the second quarter according to the Commerce Department, and Macroeconomic Advisors predicts GDP growth of 1.5% in the third quarter in downward revisions. ...

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China plans $29 billion of local bond sales (200 billion yuan) through the central government, to meet the needs of cash strapped local governments. Its proceeds would go to projects approved by Beijing, for airports, power plants and railroads. In earlier year local governments depended on land sales as abig source of money. China's tax system sends most revenue to the central government, while provincial and municpal governments are left to handle most of the spending on education and healtcare, which is why these needs may not be getting the funding they need. Land sales are now drying up as asource of money as the property market declines. This does not mean that the local governments are not indirectly taking on debt. Chinese law prohibits cities and provinces from taking on debt without Beijing's approval, but companies owned by local governments have borrowed heavily to fund public works projects. Shanghai Chengtou Corporation, a municipal government company that builds infrastructure has taken on 200 billion yuan in debt in 15 years. Economists say this kind of debt may be 20% of annual GDP, which added to the central government debt of 20% of GDP, would bring the combined debt to 40% of GDP. What this new effort does is make the taking on of new debt official and more transparent. The principle behind the earlier tight control of debt issued by local governments was to prevent local governments going overboard and the central government having to take responsibility, as happened in the 1990's in India, Mexico, Russia and in the USA....

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The aggressive effort of the US central bank, the Federal Reserve, to increase interest rates to dampen inflation will have an effect on Asian currencies and trade. The Japanese yen lost 14% of its value and the Korean won 8%, Chinese yuan 5% since the beginning of 2022. This is a result of the widening gap between interest rates in the US and Japan where the interest rates have not been increased due to mild inflation.  Asian trade is done in US dollars and exports to the US are invoiced in dollars. Citigroup says about three quarters of trade in Asia-Pacific is invoiced in dollars. Weaker currencies would translate into higher effective prices for imported commodities - energy and food. This pushes up domestic inflation and hurts manufacturing.   Add to this a shift in the US demand from goods into services in 2022 and there is weaker external demand for the economies of Asia. This will exacerbate the slowdown in Asian economies. Many countries such as South Korea and Thailand have increased their external borrowing in dollars. Debt service ratio was 21% in South Korea and 14.5% in Thailand, according to Bank for International Settlements. Years of low rates allowed governments in Asia to borrow more without incurring high interest bills. Now that situation is changing quickly and will result in difficulties for South Korea and Thailand says this report in WSJ. In the last 10 years Asian economies excluding China increased debt to GDP ratios by 15 percentage points, according to Gavekal. The result might not be debt crises as in Sri Lanka but painful slowdowns in economy with combination of loss in external demand from the US and higher inflation, higher interest bills. ...

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Juan Montes of the WSJ describes the problems facing states in Mexico as the governors have accumulated power, debt has risen rapidly, and accountability of state officials is at a new low. Half of the states with elections in 2016 have doubled their debt in 6 years, according to government data. The federal audit office points to irregularities in $13 billion of federal funds transferred to states. Elections in states in 2016 shows public discontent with poor governance, corruption, and the lack of rule of law. This is leading to a close election in Veracruz with the PAN and PRD parties challenging the PRI in the state.