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Domestic tourist trips up 19% over 2019 in China as China opens up to tourism are leading to only a 1% increase in total tourist spending, as tourists are just plain thrifty. Food inflation that is 10-15% in the US is about a catastrophic 40% in Europe with creeping higher margins of grocery stores. Compare that with China where inflation is less than 1%. WSJ looks at Zibo a city in China that was like hundreds of smaller industrial cities in China until a government publicity campaign got about 4.7 million people to visit it for its barbecue pancakes. The prices were relatively inexpensive with two people eating for $20. Yet this type of tourism is not boosting the Chinese economy when exports are slowing and the construction sector is in poor shape financially. 

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IBM's acqusiition of Lombardi Software founded by Phil Gilbert is intended to bring a design-thinking focus as part of the culture change at IBM. The move is an effort to develop speed at IBM as it shifts to faster growing new businesses such as data analytics and cloud computing. As the ways companies that buy IBM products change their manner of operating with decisions on using IBM products made in many departments and away from IT departments, IBM sees the need to change. Speed also offers a way to tackle the shift to new product technologies, which involves a transition period and falling total revenues.

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Pakistan's economic delegation meets Christine Lagarde, head of the IMF, at the IMF and World Bank Annual meeting in Bali, Indonesia. Lagarde calls for transparency in accounting and complete understanding of Pakistan's debt. IMF delegation will visit Islamabad to discuss terms for a loan. The previous government of Mr. Sharif came under criticism for not providing transparency on Pakistan's total debt. There is concern about debt trap diplomacy in loans from China, as loans may exceed the country's ability to repay and the interest rate terms are not seen as favorable to Pakistan. The Sharif government is criticized for not negotiating better terms for loans from China. Pakistan faces $8 billion debt load in 2018, with first payments to China under Belt and Road Initiative of $1 billion due in 2019. Pakistan's total foreign exchange reserves fell to a low of $8.4 billion, according to the central bank. Pakistan is seeking $12 billion in IMF assistance, but experts say more will be needed to bridge the financial gap. The Pakistan rupee dropped by 10% during this week in October 2018, down to 137 rupees for a U.S. dollar. The new government of prime minister Imran Khan took office in August 2018 after election promises to bring transparency to Pakistan's debt situation. Promises were also made to improve low income housing and meet needs of poor and low income public. Imran Khan opened a public housing project to build 5 million new homes. IMF terms could restrict the money available for badly needed housing and other social projects.  Pakistan's small tax base with a small percentage of the population paying taxes, also restricts the ability of the government to fund social welfare projects and infrastructure. It makes the country more dependent on outside assistance and loans. India has moved to expand its tax base, and is implementing GST tax reforms to increase the tax revenues available to fund infrastructure, health, education and housing. The war in Yemen has complicated other sources of funding traditionally accessed by Pakistan from Saudi Arabia and the UAE. The financing gap is estimated by experts to be $20 billion, with the IMF assistance sought of $12 billion falling short of the financial needs. ...

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Pressed by tariffs from DJT China is trying to become technologically sufficient, yet this comes at a considerable cost, says this report in WSJ. Made in China 2025 was put out in 2014 when president Xi was beginning his plans for the Chinese economy. It is 2025 now and a look at the nation's investment plans show China putting $250 billion a year in advanced manufacturing sectors from automobiles to solar panels and AI, says Centre for Strategic and International Studies CSIS in Washington. This is giving China an edge but at the cost of using up valuable resources and some wasted spending at a time of stagnant government revenues. China's new production needs new markets with overcapacity such as in the electric automobile industry. This overcapacity comes at a cost when the US and other countries are restricting imports from China with new trade policies. During the DJT first term in 2016 China pulled back reference to make in China 2025 but this was temporary and China's 2021 Economic Plan puts top priority to be self sufficient in Science and Technology. Industrial support for EV's went from $15 billion in 2019 to $45 billion in 2023 (CSIS). 48% of 11 million new vehicles were EV's in 2024 with BYD and Geely the main ones of 100 brands. In shipbuilding $132 billion was invested in 2010-2018 taking China from 5% in 1999 to 48% of total manufacturing of shipbuilding in 2025 worldwide. The same is true for manufacturing aircraft and chemicals. ...

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Tariffs policy is part of a renegotiation the US is conducting with China similar to that started with Japan by Lighthizer in the Reagan era as Deputy Trade Representative. It does not in any way have anything to do with the tariffs of Herbert Hoover in 1930 that gave tariffs a bad meaning. This is because tariffs were reduced since Harry Truman's efforts in 1945 by 2017 to 1.47% on average on total imported goods into the US and world trade makes up 63% of world GDP, so large is world trade today. What are Lighthizer- DJT tariffs trying to accomplish? As with Japan in the 1960-1970's it is intended to reverse the trends for China in 2000-2017 that allowed it to game the world trading system to gain an unfair advantage by dumping specific products into the US destroying American manufacturing and communities dependent on it. The US tariffs on Chinese goods proposed in 2024 by former USTR Robert Lighthizer come at a time when US tariffs are in 2023 only about 2.2% of all imported goods, $33 billion on 2333 billion of imported goods. In 2023 the total import duties or tariffs as a percentage of US total imported goods is about 2%, with total imported goods into the US from European Union 3%. and with total imported goods into the US from China about 19% matching China's about 19% on American imports into China. By the time the first tariffs were taken up by the DJT administration in 2017 the total tariffs the US had imposed on imported goods were down to an all time low of 1.47% of imported goods value, $33 billion out of $2333 billion in total imported goods. Compared to the 29-40% under Hoover Act of 1930 raised to 60%.  Today world trade makes up 62% of world GDP, in 1930 it made up 9% of World GDP.  In 2023 the total import duties or tariffs as a percentage of US total imported goods is about 2%, with total imported goods into the US from European Union 3%. and with total imported goods into the US from China about 19% matching China's about 19% on American imports into China.   ...

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This report in the WSJ on the Indian economy says the impact of growth in India's largest state of Uttar Pradesh with 240 million people will play a big part in the growth rate of the Indian economy. It fails to say why. The answer is good governance, investment in infrastructure, logistics and manufacturing, a huge pool of tens of millions of engineers and hundreds of millions of factory workers. The lack of a large enough investment pool of investment funds and  failure to eliminate leakages from corruption, the lack of a plan such as the current Master Plan Gati Shakti for the whole Indian economy, lack of governments at the state and federal level combining setting targets and delivery dates for infrastructure roads, bridges, airports, logistical hubs, factory for advanced industry, lack of governance entirely focussed on delivery and timelines, were the missing pieces in development in India for 5 decades since the 1960's, a period in which as Mr. Modi says repeatedly Japan, Korea, China moved ahead and India fell behind. Does this potential exist only for Uttar Pradesh? India's industrialization model started in Gujarat, population of 72 million under Modi as head of the state government from 2001-2014. It now covers the western region of Gujarat, Maharashtra population 128 million and Rajasthan population 82 million  the region around Mumbai, Ahmedabad and Jaipur of about 282 million people. This will be the fastest growing region and the engine that will propel the Indian economy in the years ahead. Uttar Pradesh in the north is integrated into this development. So is another region Bihar population 104 million and Orissa 46 million, Assam 35 million states in the northeast of the country with a total of 185 million people. What do all 3 regions of over 700 million people have in common? The answer is state and federal government working using the Gujarat tested and proven model for development, rapid delivery, good governance, government working with industry, large investments in infrastructure and modernization, Make in India hubs for manufacturing, digitization. ...

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A Fitch Ratings report says that an estimated 7.5 trillion yuan of loans have been made by Chinese banks, exceeding the limit that bank regulators had set for 2010 for new local currency lending. In addition another 3 trillion yuan was loaned by using trusts and other mechanisms and this has not been recorded on bank balance sheets. Including this lending taking place in a sort of shadow banking system, the total lending is the same as in 2009 when the heightened stimulus lending ocurred. This explains the inflationary pressures facing the Chinese economy and the growing property bubble.

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Cracks are appearing in Japan's manufacturing model in recent years. Kobe Steel, Mitsubishi Materials and Subaru Corp have admitted to manipulating quality inspections. Takata Corp, maker of airbags is a case study in what can go wrong, as the company declared bankruptcy after failing to tackle safety problems and supplying defective airbags. The case is all the more astounding as airbags are designed for ensuring the safety of automobile passengers, a key feature of every automobile.  The situation is one of failure of management to take the right actions. This also happened with Toyota as management missteps worsened the issues related to faulty acceleration of vehicles, leading to media focus on Toyota in the U.S. Japan is not unique in this area of management failures as VW's actions in the diesel emissions case have clearly shown. Pressures to cut costs are part of the problem as this report shows. In Japanese companies quality checking staff employees are the targets of cost cutting layoffs resulting in the faulty step of outsourcing quality checks, which is contrary to what the country's pioneers sought to do when they adopted American Total Quality methods in the 1960's. This creates opportunities for China today, and for India in the future if it is able to capitalize on the opportunities in manufacturing desperately needed for job creation.    ...

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Nathaniel Taplin of the WSJ says the tariffs put on $50 billion high tech products by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs on $50 billion products are not about a trade war but a way both countries will negotiate setting out their two positions.  A look at the role of foreign firms in China shows China has access to new technology using these firms as a conduit and these firms are also generating more jobs, being highly productive. These firms Taplin says will set back their investments if no agreement is reached or if it is harder to bring Chinese made products into the U.S. At this time China badly needs this investment and technology access because of their dynamism compared to inefficient state run firms as it struggles under a massive debt load with very high debt to GDP ratio.  A major issue is job growth as companies getting foreign investment are much more effective in jobs generation, delivering 10% of all urban job growth from 2007 to 2016, using just 5.5% of total investment. Return on assets at 9% compares to 4% at state run firms. If this dynamism is reduced or affected in some way China could have to provide more unproductive debt buildup stimulus.  For these reasons China has good reason to make concessions, says Taplin. Trump administration will ask for greater semiconductor purchases, much looser joint venture or foreign ownership requirements, higher Chinese payment for U.S. intellectual property. For all these reasons this is not about a trade war but about serious negotiations taking place so that there is a level playing field in the next phase of competition in high tech between the U.S., China and the E.U. changing the dynamics of the trade relationship in ways that reverse the trends of the past. ...

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It is only 10 days from the Thursday July 4 election night and Keir Starmer went to work immediately Here is what he said today: "My new cabinet hit the ground running. We’ve lifted the ban on onshore wind. We’ve created a national wealth fund to invest in and grow our economy. We’ve met NHS bosses to get the 40,000 extra NHS appointments we need each week and 700,000 urgent dental appointments up and running as quickly as possible. The Department for Education is resuming and expanding its recruitment campaign to kickstart our promise to hire 6,500 new teachers. We’re taking emergency measures to pull the justice system back from the brink of collapse. And, on day one, we scrapped the Rwanda gimmick and began setting up a new Border Security Command to smash the people-smuggling gangs for good. Now is the time for politics as public service. A government committed not to its self-preservation but to uniting the country in the shared mission of national renewal. The start of the road back to restoring people’s hope and faith that politics can be a force for good. No more gimmicks, lies and self-serving self-obsession – this government knows we have a duty to the people we are elected to serve." ...

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A crisis situation exists in state revenue and spending needs. According to a Census Bureau report overall state revenue in the US dropped 30.8%, to $1.1 trillion, between fiscal 2008 and 2009. The gap between the spending needed to provide services in the recession and revenues is very large. States fiscal problems along with housing losses, will be the two forces acting as a drag to the US recovery in 2011-2012. State payrolls will be cut back and contracts to private companies reduced to cut spending. Declining federal help in 2011-2012, with the new focus on reducing the federal deficit, will worsen the situation. According to the Center for Budget and Policy Priorities, even with large federal help 46 states had to raise taxes and make cuts to close a combined gap of $130 billion in their current budgets. And next year 40 states already have projected gaps totaling $113 billion. Even as revenues drop, the Census Bureau report says the state government expenditures went up by 3% to provide essential services, safety net programs and education. Illinois has a budget deficit of 45 percent of its overall budget, according to the Pew Center on the States. In California it is equal to 13% of te state's total budget, and in Arizona it is 15%. For 2009 tax collections fell by 8.5%, and were partially offset by a 12.9% increase in federal help, which was a total of $477.7 billion, according to te Census Bureau report....

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Robert Reich, a former Labor Secretary, says that instead of "rebalancing" with Chinese consumers buying more American goods and China exporting less to the USA, things are headed in the opposite direction. Why? Because at the macroeconomic level China is devoting more of its country's resources to production capacity. Chinese consumers are taking home a smaller proportion of the total economy. In 2008 personal consumption amounted to 35% of the total economy, whereas in 1998 it was 50%. Capital investment in the same 10 years went up 35% to 44%. Chinese continue to save and these savings are going into infrastructure and manufacturing capacity. There is even a social twist to the savings, with fewer young Chinese women than men parents with boys have to compete in the marraige market and save assets for this. Households are also saving to support more elderly people as population is aging quickly with population policies. All this means that with all the talk (see links to Niall Ferguson and Krugman), the situation will likely roll on in this manner till things reach an impasse, or there is a strong political backlash in the USA which leads to stronger trade actions by the government, or there is a crisis. Meanwhile the trade deficit is headed higher and Chinese foreign reserves will go far above the current $2.3 trillion. And the Europeans will also be getting restless with their trade imbalance, as the euro edges higher and the yuan remians pegged to the dollar, leading to trade distortions. ...

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A look at the deficit/imports deficits divided by imports ratio formula used by DJT in Rose Garden chart Liberation Day April 2, 2025 shows the importance of deficits and total imports by country. The criticism in NYT of this formula centers on- Why not the use of manufactured goods plus services and why exclude services. This is easily answered the whole idea is to bring manufacturing back to the US. US Trade Representative Jamieson and president DJT say 5 million manufacturing jobs were lost and 90,000 factories closed over 2 decades of outshoring by American companies, most of it to China. Only by focusing on manufactured goods can this be corrected. What about using a five year average of the trade deficit instead of most recent 2024 trade deficit used by the president DJT? NYT says it distorts the ratio for Equatorial Guinea? But it shifts it only slightly by less than 1 percent for China and even less than that for the European Union. US is focused on correcting the unfair treatment of American workers and factories inside America that led to this loss of 5 million jobs and tens of thousands of factories, destroying the Nation's industrial base. Most of it to China, What that has to do with Equatorial Guinea is beyond comprehension and shows the ignorance that is fueling much of the criticism of the efforts to support American workers who are the best in the world when given the opportunity and management is doing it's job right. ...

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Wal-Mart has removed same store sales as a metric on which managers and executives are measured for performance based compensation. As a result CEO Duke sees his compensation increase in the last fiscal year from what it would be under the previous arrangement. Same store sales have declined for seven consecutive quarters at Wal-Mart. The new metric used instead of same store sales is total sales, which increased 3.4% in the last fiscal year. Duke's compensation was $18.7 million, of which $16 million was performance based, for the last fiscal year. Morgenson asks if Wal-Mart executives are being opportunistic when it comes to setting the metrics for performance based compensation.

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Medtronic's former CEO, Bill George, says Medtronic's plan to reincorporate in Ireland as part of the merger with Covidien is intended to make it possible to use cash piled up overseas. The cash overseas if repatriated to the U.S. would incur corporate taxes of 35%. Medtronic can use its overseas cash resources to finance the acquisition of Covidien. The combination of the two companies will enhance cash flow, says Medtronic's CEO, Omar Ishak. Covidien's overseas cash and future earning from its businesses is not subject to U.S. repatriation taxes. As a result the combined company following merger will have only 40% of total cash "trapped" overseas, compared to 60% before a merger.

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Best Buy electronics retail chain plans to close 50 big box stores in 2012 and open 100 mobile small format, stand alone stores. This is part of a strategy to reduce costs by $800 million by fiscal 2015. Total sales at stores open at least 14 months declined 2.4%. Best Buy competes with online retailers like Amazon.com and discounters such as WalMart. Best Buy's response was to increase online and mobile options for purchases and discounting efforts of its own. This has put pressure on its profits, with a loss in fiscal fourth quarter ending March 3, 2012, of $1.7 billion, which also reflects restructuring charges.

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Residential property investments are showing a consistent return in Japan. In 2013 residential property investments had a total return of income plus capital gains of 8.0% vs. 9.7% in the U.S., according to Investment Property Databank Ltd. In 2009 the worst year, returns were -3.8% in Japan vs. -16.3% in the U.S. Income gains support returns for residential investments. Investment is increasing with real estate investment up to 3.5 trillion yen in year to date Sept 2014, up 13% over the same period prior year. Blackstone is buying General Electric's residential real estate properties (about 10,000 non-luxury rental units in major cities), as trends show more people moving to cities.

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Spain's Bankia bank makes headway in the recovery by 2014. Bankia chairman Goirigolzarri says it was "not impossible" that the government would recover the 22.4 billion euros it put in Bankia. Bankia reported net profit of 512 million euros for 2013. Problems remain as 15% of its total loans are more than 90 days overdue yearend 2013, increasing from 13% in 2012. There are billions of dollars of bad loans in a "bad bank." Shares are up 65% since Sept 2013, up to 1.31 euros in Jan 2014. The government valued the bank shares at 1.35 euros at the time of the bailout in 2012.

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The $17 discount for Russian oil to Brent crude is a result of the president's efforts with sanctions plus tariffs on China and India to cut oil purchases from Russia. This puts a strain on Russia in financing the war with Ukraine. Bothe China and India have cut purchases of Russian oil in recent weeks and the Indian refinery at Jamnagar no longer gets Russian oil, according to recent reports. DJT was criticized for his stance on Indian tariffs as inconsistent with the agreement with China on rare earths. It now appears that China and India have both agreed to stop financing the Russian war effort with big oil purchases and are shifting it to other places such as Brazil, Guyana and Canada. India plans large oil purchases and arms purchases from the US and this is part of the trade agreement being negotiated with India. About one third of the additional 240 million barrels of oil on the seas in tankers is Russian oil being stored for lack of buyers with total oil on waters at 1.4 billion barrels. This has led to a 48% increase in tanker costs to $125,000 a day. All this makes it harder for the Russian economy to sustain the war effort as the US pushes both sides to settle the Ukraine conflict in the 28 Points Peace Plan negotiated with important Russian negotiators in Washington DC over 3 days last week. ...

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The effects of a health scare about chicken and hormones on China's internet sites is affecting sales of Yum Brands store outlets for Kentucky Fried Chicken (KFC) in China. As most of the stores are company owned compared to 11% in the U.S., this is having an outsized effect on Yum Brands performance. Fast growth in China can be an asset as well as a liability if not carefully handled. Food is an especially difficult field in China with careful management and control of supplies critical. The Chinese public is skeptical about government monitoring and checks of food supplies and pharmaceuticals after years of lax enforcement. Yum Brands has 5400 KFC and Pizza Hut stores in China, 14% of total global store outlets.

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Approval process by government is now much stricter and the approval process takes longer for new wind turbines. A leading renewable energy developer BayWa re. estimates 45% of the old turbines installed 20 years ago would not be approved under today's stricter standards. As these become unprofitable a lot of new turbines have to replace older ones. After years of gains suddenly in 3 years the wind power capacity installed each year is dropping sharply, and is in deep trouble. Especially because wind energy plays a big role in Germany, accounting for 25% of total electricity production in 2019, solar only has 10%. For all of Germany only 290 MW was installed in first half of 2019, 80% drop from same period 2018.  In 2018 2800 MW of wind turbines were installed, and that was down from 5000MW in 2017. Problems in addition to stricter approval standards is the resistance from the public which fears wind turbines close to residential areas could affect health of residents. In Bavaria 10H ban is imposed on new installations, requiring 10 times the height of the wind turbine as minimum distance from homes. Other issues are wildlife and the impact on  birds in the area. 300 turbines for 1200 MW are blocked for this reason. Other reasons are military concerns, FM radio beacons. It used to take 10 months for approval. Now the process is so long that the technology itself has changed by that time. Commercial risks are growing for operators in this environment as new costly regulations come into place. A regulation in Brandenburg requires payment of 10,000 euros to neighboring municipalities per wind turbine. Subsidy eligibility is also being cut. ...

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Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...