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Ilan Berman, vice president of the Foreign Policy Council in Washington D.C., cites former finance minister Alexei Kudrin about capital flight from Russia reaching as high as $160 billion in 2014. This is a result of Russian policies in Ukraine that are creating a high degree of uncertainty and investor fears about the Russian economy. The result Kudrin says would be a stagnating economy. This follows the emerging market crisis in the beginning of 2014, which hit Turkey, Argentina, and Brazil. Kudrin is respected for his efforts to strengthen Russia's finances in Putin's first term in office, and left the administration over disagreement with prime minister Medvedev on damage to finances from higher defense spending. This suggests Putin and Medvedev in their first terms as president conducted more prudent policies for the economy than they are doing in Putin's second term. A certain recklessness seems to have crept in as many respected advisors from that period have left over differences in policy, including how protests and the opposition's views should be handled. This includes Medvedev's early efforts after elections for dialogue with the opposition parties which were set aside by Putin. The danger with having a Bolivarist class of tycoons as in Venezuela and some developing countries, instead of wiser heads around him for Putin, is that he will lose the advice and counsel he so badly needs to conduct policies without letting emotions getting the better of a sound judgement. A large foreign exchange reserve is a buffer for Russia, but this needs to be used to diversify the economy away from dependence on oil and commodities by investing in technology industries to create jobs in other fields, and not wasted in higher defense spending and fighting investor sentiment for the value of the ruble. It also shows that there is an inherent value in having a "loyal opposition" and "shadow cabinet," and these institutions were not invented over centuries of practice in government without a reason, in that they actually help the governing administration pursue prudent policy without arbitrary actions. The irony is that the very fears of 1998 repeating itself with the "chaos" of western style democracy and politics and manipulation by oligarchs- a Putin complaint- is reversing the gains made by Russia since then, with another set of tycoons and vested interests in place. Russians, like the Germans can learn to make democracy work without a centuries long history of democratic traditions, elections and free media. Czarist traditions can be overcome just as the Prussian traditions were overcome, and Russians can come up with their own Wily Brandts and Gaucks, leaving behind the old history of suppressing contrary opinions. For this to happen Russians including Mr. Putin need to leave their own fears behind, and trust the Russian people for the right instincts and values and maturity of judgement, just as the Germans have done and succeeded. ...

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Infratest Dimap polling institute is commissioned by DW.com to find out what Germans think of the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel one year later. In summer 2015 Merkel said on Aug 31, "We can do it." Costs related to the refugees are about $17 billion, do Germans think services are overstretched for education, healthcare housing and other services. On the other side German society is aging and for every 100 unemployed people there are 200 open positions for skilled personnel. But the refugees who are accepted do not have the skills required and have to acquire the skills or given training and education. On this issue DW.com asked the question whether it will strengthen the German economy. About 51% agree and 45% disagree on this question, and about the same number agree and disagree on the question that Germany will be overstretched providing the services for housing, education, healthcare and other services. The higher educated and young are more favorable to accepting refugees, with those over 50 and basic schooling unfavorable. On the AfD side most people are unfavorable, and in the Greens party most are favorable. On terrorist incidents probability, over 58% think this is more likely, 38% disagree. On the question of whether this will make Germany more diverse 56% agree, 40% disagree. Overall the situation appears to be balanced, with a range of views expressed, and the positive and negative sentiment "evenly balanced", says DW.com.  ...

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The mood in the UK is becoming less receptive to foreigners as job losses mount and the economy declines. For a long period under Labor administrations openness to foreign investment served Britain well. From 2004 to 2007 foreign investment accounted for 7.4% of UK's GDP compared with 1.4% in the USA and 1.6% in Germany. Immigration tripled under Labor governments. Now the mood is shifting as job losses mount. Unemployment which was 4.7% in 2005, was 6.3% in the 4th quarter of 2008. Estimates by IHS Global Insight, a forecasting firm, shows that unemployment could reach 10.5% by early 2011. Government figures indicate that the number of British workers in the country went down by 234,000 to 27 million in the last quarter of 2008. The number of foreign workers went up by 175,000 to 2.4 million. About 104,000 jobs were lost in the 4th quarter of 2008. During the period from 1995 to today manufacturing accounts for a smaller portion of the British economy, going from 21% to 14%. In this new climate French owner Total SA faced strikes at it Immingham oil refinery for not hiring British workers for an expansion at the refinery. It offered to set aside 102 of 200 temporary construction jobs for British workers. And public anger is evident about things that earlier would have aroused passing interest. One example was for a plan to sell part of the British postal service with the Dutch or the Danish as buyers. Another an award by the government to the Japanese of acontract to build and operate a fleet of high speed trains. And immigration is emerging as the third biggest ocncern of in the country, according to a survey by Ipsos MORI, after the economy and crime, the fourth being unemployment. Actually immigration and unemployment are strongly related, and both are related to the economy, all issues related to the steep downturn, especially to the collapse of the financial industry in London....

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This leader in The Economist magazine says a hard Brexit of the sort announced by Theresa May at a Conservative Party conference is clearly bad for Britain. It also point out that half of British people voted to remain. It is not clear that voters have voted for a hard Brexit, a soft Brexit, or voter alienation with elites and effects of years of austerity since the financial crisis have helped tilt the vote to Brexit. It points out that the rhetoric may be damaging Britain's chance of negotiating a Brexit that limits damage to GDP, which the Treasury estimates to be nearly twice the loss in GDP if a member of a single market as compared to leaving it. British government leaders may be overestimating the willingness of leaders of France, Germany and other countries to make concessions. By talking up to their party base politicians such as May may be putting German and French leaders to also toughen their positions on free movement as an integral principle of the European Union, and consequently of membership in a single market. ...

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Former German chancellor from the SPD party, Gerhard Schroeder, is interviewed by Rayond Zhong of the WSJ. Here he describes his views on the way Agenda 2010 was implemented in 2003 in Germany to gain public support for changes to Germany's welfare state. He also talks about the eurozone crisis and how Angela Merkel has handled the crisis, and the right approach for an Agenda 2020 for Europe. The interview was made at Schroeder's law office in Hannover, Germany. This is a detailed and exceptional interview by Zhong covering all facets of the eurozone crisis and Germany's response. Schroeder says it was right to give Greece more time to make the reforms, so that the Greek people could see that this path would help in a positive way. In doing this he cites his own experience when as the reforms for Agenda 2010 to make Germany more competitive were taking place- including cuts in spending and lower taxes- he turned down his finance minister Hans Eichel's proposal in 2003 for an additional 20 billion euros in cuts to put Germany in compliance with EU law....

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Spiegel Online's interview with Emmanuel Macron, on the TGV 8434 train from Bordeaux to Paris. He is joined by Mrs. Macron. Macron says he is aware that he does not have a bloc of core support like Ms. Le Pen, yet he says this means he will try that much harder for voters on the right and the left. He says their is no political renewal in the political class in France and that it remains closed. He says particular attention must be paid to rural France outside big cities like Bordeaux, Lyon, Marseille and Paris, where people have had a different encounter with globalization. On the European Union he sees the need to revitalize it by having a closer union focussed on countries that are interested in this. He sees the need for a joint finance minister and permanent head of Euro Group. This might be a smaller EU without countries such as Britain, and others who are not interested in a closer union. He does not agree with the idea that any member state of the EU can stop other member states from proceeding. Macron does not believe in moving to the right as in the Dutch election because he says people are "not idiots" and in France this has not worked for Nicholas Sarkozy, which has some truth to it as authenticity (and humility) matters to French voters. A personal approach worked for Fillon early on till the scandal over payments he received. Macron brings to this personal approach and relative youthfulness, his sense that he must appeal to all segments, rural and urban, educated and less educated, and at the same time be true to core values such as preserving the European Union, and authenticity in terms of views on Algeria. He also says he is aware he faces risks but that this is something he believes in deeply.   Macron has not hesitated to express his views on topics such as Algeria, calling it a crime against humanity, and later elaborating on what he meant. Macron says his movement En Marche is different in style and manner from the closed nature of French politics. He believes in transparency, term limits, and removing conflicts of interest in French politics, as a way to make a fresh start. The first round of voting is on April 23, 2017, followed by a second round of voting between two candidates.  ...

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The jobless rate of 7.1% in Germany in April 2011, is down from 7.8% in the prior year. In the states of Bavaria and Baden-Wurttemberg, where BMW and Daimler are located, the unemployment rate is down to 4% in April. Jurg Kramer, chief economist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt, says this could lead to higher inflation. Inflation went up to an annual rate of 2.6% in April. The ECB raised the official interest rate to 1.25% in April, but Kramer says the rate appropriate for Germany is more like 3%. The euro is rising with expectations that the ECB will raise rates further. The euro was at $1.49 on April 28, 2011. Kramer also cites some factors that could slow inflation and wage increases in Germany- most union wage contracts continue till 2012, and the change that allows people from Eastern European countries such as Poland and the Czech Republic to be easily hired.

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The struggle between the Detroit automakers and the states over auto emissions of carbon dioxide and other heat trapping gas emissions. California adopted the first state law requiring auto manufacturers to reduce emissions of carbon dioxide in 2002 and in 2004 set standards for the emission reductions. Vermont, as well as Connecticut, New Jersey, New York and Pennsylvania adopted the same standards. Automakers sued toblock these standars in Vermont and California. While the California case is pending, Judge Sessions issued a ruling on the Vermont case this week against the auto manufacturers. This follows a decision by the US Supreme Court in April 2007 that the Environmental Protection Authority has the right to regulate heat trapping gases like carbon dioxide as air pollutants. This endorses the idea that states can set their own limits. What is needed for a state to do this is to get a waiver from the EPA, as the federal Clean Air Act has a provision that allows California to set ists own standards with a waiver from the EPA, and for other states to follow California's lead. A detailed opinion includes analysis by the Judge in this case stating why the Transportation Department's authority is limited to automobile fuel economy standards and does not carry over into auto emissions as pollutants of the atmosphere, the area of pollutants being reserved for the EPA and the individual states to work out together. Under California law as it is now emissions reductions for cars could be 30% or more below the current levels in the 2016 model year. By 2012 emissions are required to be below 2005 levels by 25% for cars and light trucks, SUV's and larger trucks 18%. Note that what is technologically feasible to accomplish in the area of auto emissions is an unknown. At the same time its a function of determination, R&D investment, collaboration between companies to pool technological and capital resources, development of engineering and manufacturing investment and knowhow to learn mass manufacture at low cost, introduction of the already feasible features quickly such as stop start engines which the Germans have already in the works for mass manufacture across product lines, and so forth. The first comer in these technologies enjoys an advantage as Honda constantly advertises itself, and the the only way to say what is technologically feasible or not is by pointing to these pioneers. In this case because of the stronger environmental movement in Europe especially in Germany, some of this pointing will be done in the direction of the German auto manufacturers progress in this direction to meet the new EU standards of 120 micrograms of CO2 per kilometre. ...

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How electric utilities and the oil industry are backing California's fight with the EPA to regulate auto emissions, cutting them by 30% by 2016 for new cars and trucks in the state. Its a fight endorsed by 14 states in the Northeast and Northwest. California sued the EPA, and in effect the Bush Administration which controls the EPA, in federal district court and federal appeals court. THe EPA has taken two years to respond to California's request for a waiver so that it can regulate auto emissions in its state. California's auto emissions rules are part of a broad effort to reduce all emissions in the state by 25% by 2020, including by manufacturing, electric utilities and the oil industry. Utilities and the oil industry share the opinion that all sectors of the economy should be required to take on this responsibility, including the transportation sector. In the past oil companies and the auto industry have been at loggerheads about who is responsible for the worsening dependence of the USA on foreign oil and the worsening impact of the oil consumption on the environment and their advertising campaign have often shifted the blame on each other. Is this part of the continuing debate about oil as oil prices rise and consciousness about global warming rises as it has already done so in Europe. See the links to the Frankfurt Auto Show. BMW known for gas guzzling machines has done an aboutface in the face of public opinion in Germany and is advertising its image as environment friendly and investing in new technologies to curb emissions and increase fuel economy. ...

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Ms. Le Pen of the National Front called her going into the second round runoff against Macron's En Marche movement, "an act of French pride." Emmanuel Macron has his own way of looking at this. As this NYT editorial points out Macron says his is a movement "of patriots fighting the threat of nationalism." At his rallies and the rally following coming out the front runner in the first round of elections Macron is shown with people waving French flags all around him. The message- that in today's world of global cooperation for economic progress nationalist feeling has to be balanced with healthy cooperation and integration into the regional community, the European Union. That he is a patriot who also has in him a feeling for the communities in his wider region. That real economic progress can only be achieved working in cooperation with neighboring countries and regional community, and around new ideas for renewal.

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Yascha Mounk says Germany is not as committed to the West as it was in the days of chancellor Adenauer. Policies pursued by Gerhard Schroeder distancing Germany from the U.S. were also carried on under chancellor Merkel.

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France's CFDT trade union says both Sarkozy and Hollande have shown agreement with a plan for workers to show flexibility in wages and benefits in return for preserving jobs. This comes at a time when France's trade deficit is widening. It was 69.6 billon euros in 2011. Hourly labor costs in France are 34.20 euros, 14% higher than in Germany, where similiar wage restraint was shown by the unions during the last decade to reduce high unemployment. It is 20% higher than the euro-zone average, according to Eurostat. Now France is looking to adopt some aspects of the German model to improve competitiveness and reduce unemployment.

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The different approaches of presidential candidates Hollande and Sarkozy to reviving France's economy as they contest the elections on May 6, 2012. Sarkozy proposes a value added tax and has called for broadening the mandate of the European Central Bank to stimulate growth. Hollande proposes higher taxes on the wealthy, and hiring more teachers and making no cuts in the civil service. Hollande opposes the austerity measures being pushed by Germany and adopted in eurozone countries.

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The relationship of former German chancellor Schroeder with Russian president Putin reflects personal experince with the deaths and destruction of the Second World War. Schroeder lost his father in the war. Putin is the only surviving child, born in 1952, of a mother who barely survived the siege of Leningrad from 1941 to 1944 when 641,000 Russians died of starvation in the city. His mother lost one child in the siege.

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Early opinion polls show Macron the more convincing candidate in the first television debate held in March with 29 percent in an Elabe poll, with Le Pen at 19 percent. An OpinionWay poll shows Macron more convincing at 24 percent and Le Pen at 19 percent. Polls show Le Pen winning 27 percent of the vote in the first round with candidate Fillon on the right and Melenchon, Hamon on the left splitting the vote. In the second round with two candidates the vote shift of other right and left candidates determines the outcome. The second round then hinges on whether French middle and working class voters see risks to their economic future in leaving the EU, and whether appeals to nationalism and anti-immigrant rhetoric works enough to draw support from a centrist candidate.

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WIth extensive experience as Chief Investment Officer from 2003 to 2012, Sauter has seen market swings and extreme volatility over a long period of a decade. For the current investment cycle and the pullback in Oct. 2014, he points to the pullback of -16% in spring 2010, and pullback of -18% in summer 2011. In the bigger picture of the chart for this period since 2010 these pullbacks look less significant. There are reasons for a pullback. The conflicts around the world bring more uncertainty for business investment, though Sauter's point about the conflict being more than any period since 1946 may be an overstatement because this includes the period of the Berlin Airlift, Iron Curtain in Eastern Europe, Korean War, Vietnam War, and the twin wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.There are problems in the eurozone economies with near contraction in Germany in the 3rd and 4th quarter. China is slowing down at the same time. The U.S. economy and lower oil prices are the bright side of the picture. Overall the comment by Christine Lagarde during the eurozone crisis in 2012 is still relevant. When asked about the situation then, she suggested adding perspective to what was happening by asking "compared to what?" referring to the situation in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Sauter says investors who remain steady are more likely to be happy some years from now that they remained that way....

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Laurent Berger, head of the French Confederation of Labor, C.F.D.T., is a moderating force in France as president Macron leads an effort to make a revision to France's labor code. With a large parliamentary majority president Macron is expected to push for a shift to a Scandinavian version of "flexible security," that allows companies and the economy to adjust the work force, introduce retraining and create flexibility so that new jobs can be created. His union is now the largest, after surpassing the militant General Confederation of Labor. Issues in labor changes proposed by president Macron are- direct negotiations between management and employees bypassing unions, and a cap to compensation in unfair dismissal cases. Berger's view is that though the interests of labor and management conflict, there has to be dialogue instead of constant confrontation. He is willing to see some jobs lost if business creates new jobs with improvement in the economy. Macron has summoned labor leaders for marathon talks. ...

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France's manufacturing production level index declined to 92.1 in March 2012. Bank of France information shows zero growth in GDP for the first half of 2012.

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Chancellor Merkel visits Latvia in August 2014 and calls for a "persistent NATO presence" in the Baltic states. Merkel also visits Ukraine for talks with Ukrainian leaders. Germany is also mediating in the crisis and helped to arrange a meeting between Russian president Putin and Ukraine president Poroshenko in Belarus.

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Peter Altmaier is director of the chancellery in Berlin, and is the person closest to Angela Merkel. This report in the Economist points out that Altmaier has played a critical role in steps taken by Merkel- as chief whip in parliament for the CDU during the Greece financial crisis and bailouts, as environment minister implementing the program away from coal based electricity, and in negotiating deals such as the deal with Turkey on refugees, and now with Brexit negotiations. Merkel has asked Altmaier to write her manifesto for the September 2017 election. A member of the CDU's liberal wing, Altmaier is known for being a scholar on German history, especially Bismarck, and a workaholic. Here he is mentioned as a bridge maker for the CDU to the Greens Party and was part of a group of CDU and Green Party politicians who met at an Italian restaurant in Bonn. As the moderates are now dominant in the Greens Party, a CDU coalition with the Greens could be shaped by Altmaier if the election results move in that direction. ...

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As part of the effort to become more competitive with Asian automakers, VW is using new strategies with labor to reduce costs. VW made a one-off payment of about 6,300 to each of 80,000 employees at its western German manufacturing plants. In return VW secured union agreement to change work schedules at the plants to 33 hours a week from 28.8 hours, without having to make a pay increase. This is part of concessions being made by labor as Germany tries to improve its competitiveness. VW's second largest shareholder is the German state of Lower Saxony, and VW makes many automobile parts in its German plants in addition to automobile assembly, making employment a major issue for industry, labor and government.