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The Council of Mortgage Lenders forecast seems to quite optimistic considering the problems the US housing market is facing in November 2007, "prices will rise only slightly", with foreclosures rising to 45,000 from the current 30,000 in 2007, and house sales dropping by 15% in 2008. The buy-to-let market would be affected and the home buyer's budgets strained with British mortgage debt at 150% of household disposable income would affect new sales. The Economist forecast is more to the point predicting GDP growth in the UK will slowdown to 1.9% from 3.1% estimated this year, with allowance for serious downward risk from a big housing jolt to the economy in 2008. US economic growth was recently estimated by the US government reporting agency at 4.9% revised for the third quarter and the expectation was for flat or no growth in the last quarter. This suggests a dramatic drop. And this may not be fully digested by the markets as there is more bad news to come in the housing market in the USA in 2008....

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Sheila Bair, former head of the FDIC, says householders, business leaders, politicians and government leaders are all prone to looking at the short term, and refuse to make the short term sacrifices necessary to put the economy on a trajectory of long term growth. There is also a sense of short sightedness and resistance to any regulatory steps that would actually create a better framework for the financial industry for longer term growth. The financial industry opposes increases in capital requirements for reserves that would lead to a healthier balance sheet for the industry, and opposes any efforts to create amore stable financial system for the country that might sacrifice short term profits. She points to IBG-YBG sense that prevailed in the industry, I be gone- you be gone, leading to the mortgage crisis. The industry tolerated faulty ratings, faulty packaging of securities, and showed complete lack of attention to the long term consequences of such behaviour and excessive leveraging, as long as the short term profits could be made. To a large degree the situation remains the same today, says Bair. Bair and Feldstein were among the first to suggest the Obama administration tackle the huge number of bad mortgages, that were leading to a wave of foreclosures. Only if this problem was tackled head on could this be put behind and the economy be put on a path to steady growth. As it stands today the Obama administration has not tackled the problem, the financial industry still has bad mortgage debt on its books, foreclosures continue, housing prices face further declines, and this will hold back an economic recovery. She refers to the "rationalization" of the last crisis by leaders in the financial industry through the assertion that nobody saw the crisis coming, when she says some of us did see it coming, and a "rationalization" by the same leaders in saying they did nothing wrong. Bair says that the continuation of business practices that led to the financial crisis of 2008 create risks for a new crisis. And some people in government continue to support these same practices while claiming popular support. The President's focus every two years is on getting re-elected and raising funds for re-election, business is focussed on the short term, and this creates a pervasive sense of the short-term throughout out the system and society. ...

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News on several fronts in June 2009. On housing, a month to month improvement but still stuggling compared to a year ago levels. The Commerce Department said that an increase in multifamily units led to housing starts jumping 17% in May from April to a 532,000 annual rate. Compared to ayear ago level housing starts was down 45% from May 2008. There were 10 times more homes for sale in April as sold that month, with the typical ratio at 6. With layoff, tight credit and rising mortgage rates laying aheavy hand on these markets, even as developers cut prices deeply to clear unsold homes. On Manufacturing. Industrial production fell 1.1% in May from April, according to the Federal Reserve. Capacity utilization fell to 68.3%. See the graph for the steep drop for auto and auto parts manufacturing. On inflation. The producer price index showed its largest decline in 60 years, according to a Labor Department report. The PPI was down 5% from one year ago, the biggest decline since 1949. It went up from April to May by 0.2%. Part of this was rising oil prices. The core PPI which excludes food and energy dropped 0.1% in May from April. Rising oil prices, a falling US dollar and stabilization in the economy are reducing defaltion risk. At the same time the sign that inflation is not taking root are clearly evident in the slack that is building up with the drop in the capacity utilization rate to 68%, and further declines expected as the auto industry shrinks in 2009, with the huge overcapacity worldwide in that industry. ...

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Crypto currency Terra founder Do Kwon is arrested in Montenegro. US and South Korean authorites have lawsuits against the cryptocurrency founder saying financial crimes were committed. About $40 billion in value of assets was wiped out in this scheme. Terra founder claimed the support for the currency came from algorithms as there was no solid asset at a bank supporting the currency. To strain credibility further the currency was called Stablecoin. Kwon Do was a computer science degree graduate from Stanford. The use of tech algorithms or computerized programs to create currency that has always been done by central banks of each country- such as the Federal Reserve in the US -was possible because of the culture set by Silicon Valley in the San Francisco region of California that has prevailed in the last two decades. Without this culture and its spread across America and the world no sane person would even think of putting out currency, which is the sole responsibility of the government and central bank of each country. Too many people were hurt, lives disrupted or damaged by the financial crisis from faulty mortgages in 2009 for the Federal Reserve and the Biden administration to allow cryptocurrency or some other such scheme to operate and repeat these mistakes.   ...

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Prices of homes in the U.S. increased by 9.3% in February 2013, according to the Standard & Poor's/ Case-Shiller survey of home prices in 20 major metropolitan areas. All 20 cities posted gains for the second month. Prices in Phoenix increased by 23%, and in San Francisco by 18.9%. The median home price in March was $184,300 up from the $154,600 in Jan. 2012. The peak was at $230,400 in 2006. The WSJ quarterly survey shows less than 3 month supply of homes in Phoenix and San Francisco. Supplies of homes declined by 16.8%, sales of previously owned homes were up by 10.3% in March over the prior year month. Supplies have dropped as banks are putting fewer homes in foreclosure and many homeowners are unwilling to sell for a number of reasons. Increasing rents and low mortgage costs also help increase demand. The interesting aspect of this is that prices are rising even as homeownership rate declined to 65%, according to the Census Bureau. And compared with 2004 there are 7.2 million more renters and only about 400,000 new homeowners, according to Capital Economics. Some of the homebuying comes from investors buying homes and converting them into rentals....

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A landmark ruling and a huge win for consumers and for the country, as the Supreme Court says states can enforce fair-lending laws and other consumer protection measures against the largest banks in the USA. The Suprem COurt said that the rules issued by the federal banking regulators like the Comptroller of the Currency under the NationalBank Act - a law passed in 1864- could not block sfforts by the states to enforce their laws. For the country its a win because the lack of enforcement of state laws only allowed abuses in the subprime area to continue and helped create the subprime mortgage crisis. The case began with letters by the New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer in 2005 to several national banks including CItigroup, JP Morgan Chase and Wells Fargo inquiring about lending practices to minorites. The letters referred to "troubling" disparities that suggested black and Hispanic borrowers were being charged disproportionately higher interest rates on mortgages compared to whites. THe letters asked for information "in lieu of subpoena." Protection of minorities and the weak in American society is part of the moral fabric of America and that it had eroded in recent years is evident in the manner the banking sector responded. A banking trade group and the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency brought a lawsuit to block the New York Attorney General's request saying that the National Bank Act nd rules issued by the Bush administration in 2004 gave that type of authority to comptroller and prohibited such efforts by the states. And then afederal district court ruled against the states, aand the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit Court affirmed that decision. These are instances where the system failed to protect the weak even with the laws that states had on their books. Justice Scalia voted in favor with a 5-4 vote to allow states to enforce consumer protection laws, even though his written opinion was based on an interpretation of what "visitorial powers" of a federal regulator were, and not about the importance of fair lending in the proper functioning of the American economy. Justices Roberts, Alito, Kennedy and Thomas voted against....

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An analysis by Credit Suiss analysts shows that borrowers who have their principal reduced are less likely to default. But mortgage companies have been reluctant to take down loan balances. One study shows that47% of loan modifications completed in November 2009 resulted in higher payments for borrowers, typically because unpaid interest and fees were added to the loan balance. It is critical to make loan payments significantly affordable, as many people have other loans such as credit car loans, home equity loans, car loans, and these obligations make even a lower payment unaffordable.

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The New York Times reports from the comments of current and former members of the Chase Chief Investment Office (CIO), that risk officers at Chase were ignored when they raised issues about the complex trades made by trader Iksil. Iksil's trades had the support of his manager Mr. Macris, and Ms. Drew who was in charge of CIO. The comments also indicate that at one point Mr. Macris brought in a Risk Officer with whom he had worked closely for many years. Risk Officers are supposed to be independent and their concerns seriously heard, with the authority to halt trades that pose excessive risks. Which made this kind of cozy behaviour in the CIO trading offices in London cause for alarm. These reports also say Mr. Braunstein, the new CFO at JP Morgan Chase, did not strengthen controls after he assumed office in 2010. Bank officials disputed this. The New York offices did not fully grasp the complex trades being made in the CIO London offices, and upper management let the CIO operate pretty much on its own, especially with CEO Jamie Dimon's confidence in Ms. Drew's management of the CIO. This led to another gap in the process of risk management. Dimon had other priorities and distractions, from problem mortgages coming with the acquisition of Washington Mutual, pushing back aginst financial regulation after the 2008 crisis, stress tests and others. At the same time the U.S. Federal Reserve, regulators, and Treasury's coordinated effort to merge failing banks with other larger banks- because of the lack of the process of unwinding failed banks provided later under Dodd-Frank legislation- created mega financial banks. Unlike what the U.S. under Treasury Secretary Rubin pushed for in the case of S. Korea during a banking crisis in 1997, Treasury under Geithner and Fed officials did not push for unwinding of failed financial institutions such as Countrywide and Washington Mutual in 2008-2009 Chase's own portfolio of assets under the CIO, increased by an astounding amount from $76 billion in 2007 to $356 billion in 2011. Even if Ms Drew had managed CIO well before, managing a portfolio of this size is most likely to have presented a whole set of new challenges and problems for which the CIO office was not prepared. Similiar concerns were raised by other Fed officials such as Fed governors, Hoenig and Fisher, who raised the issue that such mega-banks posed unacceptable risks and were too big to manage. Pressures to increase investing profits, growing complacency, relaxing risk management controls, led to the situation where a single trader Mr. Iksil, who had only joined the bank in 2007 according to other reports, could create large losses. This follows a situation at UBSin 2011, where a novice trader made bets that resulted in large losses....

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According to Bank of America $362 billion of of subprime Adjustable Rate Mortgages, mostly 2-28 loans which adjust after 2 years, will reset in 2008. And in 2008 another $152 billion of other loans such as jumbo mortgages of more than $417,000 and Alt-A loans (category between prime and subprime) also will reset. And all this is happening with falling prices which means less or no equity in the home and little chance of refinancing or selling the home. Upto now the foreclosures had been due not as muchdue to resets as to weak underwriting and falling home prices. Whats ahead is the crest of the reset wave. From the 1.35 million homes in foreclosure this year next years 2008 should see 1.44 million foreclosures according to the Morgage Bankers Association. According to Bear Stearns this will add about 4 months to the supply of existing homes and worsen the price situation. This itself plus the some 20% lower price of foreclosed homes compared to comparable homes in a neighborhood drives the prices down further and creates a vicious cycle. Fed's Ben Beranke sees this affecting the general economy in 2008....

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The National Association of Realtors reports that sales of previously owned homes dropped by 27.2% from June, to seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.83 million homes. House prices gained ameasure of stability in 2009, after dropping since 2006. Now that measure of stability may be lost as house prices weaken. The expiry of a home-buyer tax credit was expected to dampen sales but not by this much. Paul Dales of Capital Economics expects a further drop of 5% in house prices. Combine this with sluggish consumer spending and prospects of deflation in 2011, a weak Obama administration HAMP homeowner relief program, fading stimulus and the likelihood of no further stimulus because of deficit fears; and the picture shows serious problems. The underlying picture of housing is not changing. One in four homeowners with mortgages owe more than their house is worth. Banks are handling over 5 million loans that are delinquent, if these loans are modified or short sales are permitted by banks, there would be support for housing prices. HAMP has failed in this regard, see the link to this....

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Now in March 2008 it appears that defaults on construction loans by smaller regional and local banks to single family home builders is spreading across the nation to the point where it may bring the credit squeeze for home, auto and credit card loans to local communities in smaller towns across America. This will be further slowdown not just housing but consumption at the local Walmart and retail stores. Loans to single family home builders went down from a peak about 2 years ago of $350 billion to about $250 billion in 2007. now the delinquencies on these loans is 8% in the 4th quarter 2007 according to Foresight Analytics. Its much higher at 14% in states like Ohio and Michigan. The Atlanta afffiliate of National Home Builders Association says that 20% of these builders are late in payments in that area. In states like Florida, Arizona and Arkansas, and Minnesota the delinquencies is at 10%. Note that the highly reputed ones like the Levitt and Sons that built Levittown in the post war period are also taking bankruptcy as banks are calling in their loans to be paid in full when they see builders losing money. What first appeared as signs of trouble in the Cleveland area is now spreading across the nation. Mr Whitlatch who studied planning at the University of Pennsylvania and went into building homes in the Clevelad area since 1969 is one of the home builders who is declaring bankruptcy after 9 million dollars in debt and using up $2 million of his own money and now selling off his family home. Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac have been authorized by the Bush Administration to put $200 billion into the mortgage market to keep things from getting worse in the housing market but much of the damage is already underway. How else will this affect local economies the local banks will be in trouble. Analysts estimate that about 150 local smaller and regional banks will go under in the next 3 years. Compared to this about 900 local banks went under in the S&L crisis over 5 years. It will put new stress on the local communities and their economy in coming months and years as the economic crisis goes from big cities to smaller towns and communities throughout America. ...

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This editorial from the Times after the New Hampshire Republican primary- in which rival candidates attacked Bain Capital- says that leveraged buyouts by private equity firms like Bain Capital were only one of the causes of the growing income inequality, and by no means the principal cause. And they had little to do with the subprime mortgage crisis that led to the financial crisis and recession in 2008, which aggravated the income inequality. A serious factor was the lowering of wages in manufacturing in competition with lower wage countries in a globalized economy and the decline of good manufacturing jobs over three decades. The increase in low wage jobs in the retail and service sector with the decline in manufacturing did little to arrest the growing gap in wages.

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The Fed announced that it will lend directly to the 20 largest investment banks and is willing to hold different kinds of collateral including mortgage securities that cannot find buyers. In effect the Fed took over Bear Stearns portfolio takes on its risks, will make the decisions regarding the portfolio, and is lending $30 billion with a credit line to manage the takeover and any liabilities that ensue from this. Fed officials stated that Bear Stearn's portfolio by even conservative estimates has enough value to cover the Fed's $30 billon exposure. Ben Bernanke worked closely with the New York Fed through the weekend to get this deal done with JP Morgan and prevent a Bear Stearns collapse that could affect markets when they opened on Monday, March 17th, 2008.

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In the most recent Global Financial Stability Report out in Sept. 2011, the increase in the ratio of a country's outstanding credit to GDP is highlighted as a key warning light indicator for country economies. An increase in this ratio of over 5% signals a warning light according to the IMF. It tells us that borrowing is expanding at significantly faster rate than the growth of the economy. Using this indicator would have set a warning light up for the U.S. before the 2008 mortgage crisis, and a warning light well before the financial crises in Greece, Portugal and Ireland. The outstanding credit to GDP ratio went up for China by 24 percentage points in 2009, with 4% percentage point increase in 2010. The ratio was up 30 percentage points in Hong Kong for 2010. The warning light is also up for Turkey and Vietnam. Capital inflows into countries that can be suddenly reversed, and overvalued currencies are a danger for emerging market countries and act as supplemental indicator warning lights. Brazil and South Africa have overvalued currencies. Turkey has high capital inflows. Only a small portion of this is foreign direct investment, the rest helps support a high amount of lending and credit provided by the banks. That a significant portion of this is in short term borrowing poses additional risks, as evident in the 1997 Asian financal crisis for S. Korea, Thailand and Malaysia....

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Roubini at NYU and Rosenberg at Merrill Lynch see serious damage this time- prolonged and serious downturn. Roubini sees the auto loans and credit cards next as another bubble unraveling. The consumer may have already been affected and the effects there may be serious and lasting in 2008 and 2009. Exports may not boost manufacturing that much as to make up for the severe impact of a number of things-tight credit, consumer spending declines, housing bust, and escalating oil prices. The losses from the housing and mortgage bubble has been estimated at around $400 billion, Roubini thinks that the figures approaching $100 billion that the candidates are saying they would stimulate the economy by are nowhere near the $300-$400 billion needed and the government cannot afford that magnitude of stimulus. Experts are saying that the losses of firms are not revealed as firms are not saying much, and there is a lot more to come which will act as a further drag on growth. Roubini thinks this one will be severe and a recovery may not be in the works to 2010 or 2011. Some stimulus after the election and rate cuts may just make it appear that things may reverse themselves, but there is just too much going on. The consumer has human feet that are bound to falter at some point with all this burden stacked onto him....

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The economist argues that home ownership is not benficial as social policy as it was made out to be. People in negative equity, or holding subprime mortgages, or people in foreclosure with blighted neighborhoods and acceleration in falling prices, and the lack of mobility that comes with home ownership in states that have high home ownership, and disappearing wealth with falling prices, make it a poor tool of social policy and a failed way of accumulating wealth. Experts say that one in four recesssions are caused by housing market collapse, and these recessions take longer to heal. The heavy borrowing against home equity of $9 trillion between 1997 and 2006- equal to more than 90% of disposable income- also makes this inr reality a way of adding debt not of accumulating wealth, as the wealth has an illusory aspect when prices are pushed up by the constant trading of homes as investments setting up a bubble phenomena, and renters who do not have what it takes to own a home are pushed into home ownership. About 10 million homeowners have negative equity in their homes. The value of American homeowners equity has dropped from the peak of $12.5 trillion in 2005 to just $8.5 trillion at the end of 2008. All that $9 trillion in debt is piled up against illusory gains in wealth based on transitory house price jumps. These numbers suggest that the $9 trillion in debt from borrowing aginst home equity is more than the entire value of homeowner equity in the USA, meaning if Americans had aliquid market and sold all their homes today they could not pay off the debt generated from home equity borrowing during the bubble years. Worse still cutbacks in consumption are severe in such situations, and this situation weakens banks balance sheets as foreclosures increase, creating a vicious cycle and downward trend as investment and employment are also hit hard, one that is hard to break....

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How Martin Feldstein weighs the risks of inflation and of moral hazards in helping those who fueled the subprime crisis with their mistakes with the risks of a sharp downturn, and what thoughts he has on the issue of lowering rates just as the Bernbanke Fed prepares for its policy meeting September 18, 2007. He looks for a cut starting from the current 5.25% to 4.25% or even less depending on the situation as it evolves. Feldstein gives a measure for household wealth that will be lost and what will be lost in consumer spending as a result. His measure is for a 20% cumulative fall in house prices that would reduce household wealth by $4 trillion which would impact consumer spending by about $200 billion, thats about 5% consumers would spend more if they had that $4 trillion. This works out to about 1.5% of GDP which he suggests would tip the US economy into a recession. This is not counting the loss of access to spendable cash that the consumer has used for the last decade in terms of mortgage equity withdrawals which totaled $9 trillion this last decade and financed a lot of the sustained consumer spending, these mortgage equity withdrawals to finance spending would decline significantly in the new conditions. In addition with more defaults and falling prices in a vicious circle the process could accelerate quickly, further impairing the portfolios of banks and financial institutions causing some to collapse. ...

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Something that Bernanke has studied for adecade and has spent time preparing for. He took the step yesterday to proceed with a $300 billion purchase of Treasurys by the Fed. The idea is to reduce long term borrrowing rates on consumer loans to corporate bonds that are benchmarked to Treasury bonds. By reducing the yields on Treasurys the Fed hopes to keep borrowing rates lower, now that it is clear from the jobless numbers of 500,000-600,000 a month that slack in manufacturing capacity will keep inflation down and risk deflation. The Fed will purchase Treasurys of 2 to 10 years maturity. THe Fed also increased its ceiling on purchases of mortgage backed securites guaranteed by Fannie and Freddie to $1.25 trillion from $500 billion previously laid out. So far Fed has purchased $69 billion of mortgage backed securities and committed to buying $148 billion more. It will increase the amount of Fannie and Freddie debt that it buys to $200 billion from $100 billion. So far to March 11, it has purchased $48 billion of their debt....

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Republicans have supported less regulation. After the 2009 financial crisis with faulty mortgages and excessive leveraging one would expect that there would be a shift among Republicans favoring necessary regulation of banks. This did not happen after the Obama administration failed to articulate a new culture after 2009 and lost control of Congress in 2010 by as much as 64 seats in the House 6 in the Senate, and in all demographic and income groups. The result was that the 2009 crisis changed some laws but not the culture of laissez faire that less regulation was better for the economy. It is left to president Biden to tackle this problem of culture and the Silicon Valley Bank clearly shows that the parts of the Republican and Democratic parties that support less regulation even where the regulation is essential for a good economy for workers and families, are self serving. No where is this culture of laissez fairre in its other manifestation in not planning for the US manufacturing base to be strengthened by government action more evident than in the way it has prevailed to turn a blind eye to not just sending manufacturing overseas, but over concentrating it in one country China with additional supply base from Japan into China. This is the challenge that the country faces- only if the culture or mindset changes will laws have the needed impact.  This report in the NYT shows that when president Trump appointed Randall Quarles to vice chair of banking supervision in 2017, Congressmen both Republicans and Democrats believed that less supervision was better for the economy. Democrats such as Congressmen Barney Frank were themselves part of the new culture when Frank joined Signature Bank's board in 2015, one of the banks that along with SVB bank caused the banking crisis of 2023. Its association with risky crypto assets is considered by the WSJ as being one reason the government decided to close it. Frank did not see this aspect of its risk insisting that the bank was in sound condition.  This culture is also manifested in its approach to the cost of living crisis and support for workers and families. The Biden administration sees the problem of culture and of clearly making the changes that create a new culture, and a new understanding of what is right for America, for its economy and for its role in the world, and best for its people.   ...

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American corporations lost faith in the American worker with a series of missteps by labor in the US by 1999 which were also failures of top management and engineering for quality on the assembly line and wages to compete with low cost outshoring. In losing this faith in the American worker America's corporations lost faith in their own country, in their own people- the people of America. Larry Summers was mentored by Treasury Secretary Rubin from Goldman Sachs. Deputy Treasury Secretary under Rubin, president Clinton. Following Rubin in 1999 as Treasury Secretary. Several key events happened that damaged America and the working people of the Nation -and each time Rubin and Summers are seen as giving wrong advice. The first deregulation of financial markets setup by Clinton-Rubin-Summers in 1999 led to financial crisis of 2009. The second setting up China's entry into the World Trade Organization without safeguards that caused China to use unfair practices to destroy much of America's manufacturing base. The 2009 financial crisis-  The support for repealing the Glass Steagall Act in 1999 and for deregulation of financial markets by Rubin and by Summers led to deregulation that caused the financial crisis of 2009 with overleveraging of US banks and faulty mortgages. This was the first blow to the social and economic fabric of America, to America's workers and families. The second body blow came from decisions made by president Clinton with advice of Larry Summers as Deputy Treasury Secretary and Treasury Secretary in 1999.  Advice that Clinton regrets  and sees as wrong and which have shaken American workers faith in the traditional Republican and Democratic parties of Bush, and of Clinton-Obama 1992-2016, a 20 year period which saw almost the entire industrial base of the US shipped to China  by American corporations working with China. American corporations lost faith in the American worker with a series of missteps by labor in the US by 1999 which were also failures of top management and engineering for quality on the assembly line and wages to compete with low cost outshoring. In losing this faith in the American worker America's corporations lost faith in their own country, in their own people- the people of America.     ...

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Research firm Dragonomics says real estate prices fell 4.9% in April from the prior year for nine cities in China. In 2010 prices in these nine cities went up by 21.5%, the increase in 2009 was 10%. Standard Chartered estimates China's second tier cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, could have 20 months of housing inventory by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered says price declines of 10-20% can be expected. Government data understates the extent of the bubble and the drop in prices say analysts. Beijing real estate consultant, Soufun, confirms the slowdown in price increases, saying its data show average property prices went up by 5.1% in May over the prior year, compared to the jump in prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices of copper and steel are coming down after rapid increases. The price increases in the Chinese real estate market have put housing out of the reach of ordinary couples. In 2006 an average price of a new apartment in Beijing cost $100,000, by 2011 this had gone up to $250,000. It woud take 57 years of saving for an average person to buy the apartment at todays cost. The government's response has been to boost down payments on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, prohibiting state owned enterprises outside the real estate sector from investing in real estate, and raising the reserve requirements of banks....

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Gretchen Morgenson sees systemic risk looking ahead beyond 2013 in the $4.6 trillion repurchase obligations market or repo market. Problems in the repo market caused the collapse of Lehman Brothers in the financial crisis of 2008. Bernanke, Dudley, Bair and other finance officials have referred to the risk in the repo market which have not been reduced since the 2008 financial crisis. In the repo market money market mutual funds provide short term funding to banks accepting collateral such as mortgage securities. These are overnight loans made to banks and other financial institutions based entirely on trust. During normal functioning the trades are rolled over. The risk is that the trust disappears in a few days as happened for Bear Stearns and Lehman and the firms not able to obtain this short term financing. This is a very unstable form of financing and Lehman depended on it because of the low cost and not having to set aside capital for the trades. Basel III rules require that banks set aside capital against the assets they finance inthe repo markets, and a recent JP Morgan report says the 8 largest banks would need to raise $28-$34 billon in capital for their repo business....

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The resistance to serious government assistance to make a large impact on foreclosures stems from arguments like these. They only tell one side of the story, as the mortgage industry and politicians pushed high cost loans on minorities like Hispanics and Black people who did not understand the risks, and dispensed with even the basic requirements for ability to pay on a sustained basis. Instead pushing them into higher amount loans which raised the chances of aquick default on the loan. See the link to this, a detailed article on Hispanics experience in the WSJ, with a graph that shows that more subprime loans were made to minorities than whites in 2004 and 2005, and especially to Hispanics. The other thing about this is that its a very shortsighted approach and one that will end up costing more money. Its also ending up having effects on the global economy which comes back to affect US exports, and make this a severe prolonged downturn that could last anywhere upto ten years if its not tackled in its most serious dimensions, with this one being crucial. Its crucial because the bank bailouts which are approaching a trillion dollars as the bill mounts after each passing month, and the lack of lending thats crimping businesses and leading to huge job losses of 500,000 a month are directly a result of the inability to fix this problem. Its like trying to find out who started the fire when irresponsible borrowers, speculators, the mortgage industry, the credit rating agencies who signed off on irresponsible securtization, the regulators who fell asleep on the job, and central bankers and treasury secretaries who lauded the innovation and the depth and sophistication of the US financial system ignoring the risks of too much liquidity in markets, all lit the matches that got the fire going. The longer the fire burns and bigger it gets, the harder it becomes to put it out the and more fire fighting resources it will take....

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Blinder, a Professor of Economics at Princeton, and former Vice Chairman of the Fed, always supported Sheila Bair's efforts at FDIC to help reduce forclosures. He says, Secretary Paulson has released little of the TARP money for reducing foreclosures and helping homeowners and none of it went to buying up troubled mortgage assets. So he argues the nations mortgage crisis, which is at the root of its problems goes on. The government that gave us Katrina and the Iraq war will now give us the TARP program, which apart from supporting the banks has done little to address the other serious problems that it had been approved for. And no conditions were made with the banks that required them to continue lending, all it accomplished is unfreeze the credit markets, a serious objective but clearly not sufficient to address the underlying causes of this crisis. Martin Feldstein, Professor of Economics at Harvard, has also repeatedly this year, from the early months of 2008, called for help to homeowners to reduce foreclosures. Little in the way of his counsel is being heeded, even though he has represented Republican administrations including Reagan and Bush in the past. Clearly too many conflicting interests stalled any progress, and the repeated crises since summer left Secretary Paulson and Fed Chairman more of a role putting out fires or forestalling dangerous developments in financial markets, than setting serious policy measures in place. ...