LyrArc Article Gist
Nevada, Georgia and Alaska have some of the highest unemployment in the U.S. in July 2013. It grew by 0.3 percentage points in Georgia and Alaska. to 8.8% and 6.3% respectively. Nevada's unemployment is at 9.5%. North and South Dakota with the booming energy industry have the lowest unemployment at 3.0% and 3.9% respectively. The unemployment rate showed improvement in Mississipi declining 0.5% to 8.5%. According to the Labor Dept, 162,000 jobs were added in July 2013. The U.S. unemployment rate declined to 7.4% in July 2013 from 7.6% in June reflecting the increase in employed people as well as some who left the labor force. But the progress is uneven, as 28 states and the District of Columbia saw the unemployment rate go up in July 2013, 14 states showed it steady, and the rate fell in only 8 states.

LyrArc Article Gist
Daniel Howes of the Detroit News thinks there are cultural clashes inherent in a threeway Fiat-Opel-Chrysler combination. His view is that Fiat may be biting into more than it can handle, considering the failure of the GM-Fiat alliance, and the Daimler- Chrysler combination. And the Germans at Opel are not happy with the way they see GM has treated them, so how would it help for Fiat to come into the picture? The Germans love the Italians, says one German Howe talked to, but don't respect them. And the Italians he says, respect the Germans but don't love them. Howe refers to the Renault-Nissan combination as successful, but one that took years to build to deliver commonly engineered cars. But the car industry has been poorly run, without vision and with complacent management, unwilling to try new things and recreate and renew. In other industries efforts are made to build transnational combinations with differing degrees of success. Take the work of the French, Germans and the Spanish in Airbus, in overcoming different cultural factors and pulling together to learn from each other, when given good leaders, on the Airbus 380 project. See the link to this. On Fiat's Marchionne's behalf it could be said that this is a new Fiat, run by a younger generation of Italians, who have a lot of youthful energies and freedom to innovate and improvise. Marchionne himself is more Canadian and European, places where he has spent most of his life, than Italian. And he has take a decidedly different view of things from what the old view holds as being Italian, in building the new Fiat he has done things very differently. In fact there may be less of a country view here, than a management culture view. All nationalities aspire to a good management culture of innovation, and freedom to improvise and respect for one's ideas and thinking, good places to work in. People of all nationalities, Italian, German and American, for the first time, especially the younger people, may see that the one thing they value most and share is the desire to start fresh and take initiative, improvise and work together to do the impossible. The common enemy of Germans, Italians, Americans,French, and other nationalities, may be simply the artheroschelorisis of complacent management, that freezes initiative, does not delegate more responsibility to the young and give the freedom to try new things, bureacratizes the corporation into rigid hierarchies that lack speed, and take no risks to achieve the impossible. See the link to Marchionne and Fiat's transformation. Which is why old prejudices like the one Howe states from one German he talks to, that the Italians "will steal the milk out of the coffee," may be just that - prejudice from another period, that is best left behind to build something new that has no nationality to it. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Deutsche Bank has lost two thirds of its share value and its leverage is extraordinarily high with total assets at 56 times tangible equity acccording to Morgan Stanley. Progress is being made but not enough say analysts, and raising capital now is better than waiting longer and doing that with a downward spiral in its shares. The loss announced January 14, 2009, of $ 4.8 billion euros for 4th quarter 2009, reflects a loss across all of the bank's businesses, and is a warning sign of the need to raise capital with greater urgency.

LyrArc Article Gist
Expensive new fuel saving technology investments at BMW to meet new pollution control standards in Europe (130 grams per kilometer) and boost fuel efficiency in the US. This year only 40% of its cars will meet 140 grams per kilometer. With a production total of 1.4 million cars BMW faces sizable investments with smaller car volume than the likes of Toyota and Honda. R&D costs have climbed 22% in first half 2007 to 1.5 billion euros. BMW has agreements to jointly develop some of the new technology with Daimler and GM on hybrid gasoline-electric drive cars. Its developing a new 3 liter diesel engine for the US market that cleaner and fuel efficient. BMW plans also to boost advertising budgets to promote itself as a fuel efficient carmaker conscious of the environment, See related article. It plans to expand in India China and Russia to get a share of the expanding markets there. BMW's second quarter profit fell 23% on a 7% gain in revenues underlying the additional investments BMW faces. CEO Reithofer wants to increase profits to above last years 3.75 billion euros. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
A local government vehicle in China, Sixth Division of XPCC fails to make a bond payment in August 2018. This is the first such instance of failure to make a bond payment for a local government vehicle in 2018. Economists estimate China's total debt at 242% of GDP in 2017, and government efforts to tighten liquidity and reduce support for overextended local government investment vehicles.

LyrArc Article Gist
Drew Western, a professor of psychology at Emory University, asks the question about Obama that is on many people's minds- who is this man who wrote the book "Dreams of My Father." And what happened to him? It is as if he is asking did they conjure up something that didn't exist, was there really too little about the man in a book written when the young Obama was still in law school- about his experience growing up between two races, except a remarkable effort to grapple with that experience. It would say little about the man himself, the choices he would make, the decisions he would face as he entered his thirties, and forties, a period that provides the crucible and the formative experiences in the development of character. It is as if readers had appended their own chapter at the end of the book and conjured up many things that really did not exist. And which would serve as a kind of Rorschach test experience where readers were free to read into the picture whatever they wished to see- and something Obama could use to be all things to all people. Drew Western draws from his knowledge of psychology and his direct or virtual conversations with about 50,000 people to reflect and make some hypotheses about what has happened to Obama, or what Obama was always about. He starts by pointing out what was missing in the inauguration speech and has been missing ever since- a clear sense of narrative and a vision, a story about what had happened and how it could be made different in the midst of the global financial crisis of 2008-2009. Western provides several hypotheses for what has happened. Obama simply lacks the experience to handle the presidency -having been merely a community activist and not run a city, a state or a business, and had accomplished little before becoming president, and had an unremarkable career as a law professor having published nothing during his 12 years at the University of Chicago except an autobiography. And remarkably says Western voted 130 times in the Senate as "present" instead of "yea" or "nay," suggesting a tendency not to take a stand on difficult issues. The auto fuel efficiency standards issue may be the singular exception. The challenges of a presidency are much larger, and the challenges in 2009 were even greater. Obama could not measure upto the task. A related hypothesis is that given the lack of experience and the inability to make the narrative because of an unresolved identity, Obama is willing to do whatever it takes to dial for dollars and get re-elected. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is building huge aluminium smelters powered by crude oil. Some of these aluminum smelters are near new economic cities coming out of desert landscape. This is part of an effort to create new jobs for young people at the cost of about $600 billion. The Saudi unemployment rate for young people is officially 12%, but probably more like 24%, because there aren't that many of the kinds of jobs which Saudis would accept. But a smelter like one being built on the Persian Gulf Coast creates about 10,000 jobs, and even 10 of these smelters couldn't create more than 100,000 jobs, and takes up 600,000 barrels a day of Saudi production. With a population of 24 million there is a need to create more jobs in which these smelters make only a small dent. Most countries use natural gas for electricity and for a high energy consuming industry like aluminium use natural gas. Because Saudi Arabia needs a lot of electricity to power heavily subsidized and wasteful use of electricity and has not been able to get natural gas production upto where it should be, the government has made the decision to use its crude oil for producing electricity to meet its growing needs. This means a lot of crude is being used in a manner that its normally not used and quite wastefully because its heavily subsidized. Because of the soaring electricity needs the head of the Saudi Electricity Company sees the need for six big power plants to raise generating capacity to 55,000 megawatts over 7 years, about what the United Kingdom uses, all using crude oil. As production is not going up by that much it means more of Saudi crude will be used up in Saudi Arabia and not available for export. The figures show that Saudis used more than 2 million barrels a day in 2006, up 6% from 2005 when Saudi production dropped by 2.3%. Just to remain level with the current production of 9 million barrels a day the Saudis have to bring an additional 600,000 barrels a day each year to make up for depleted and declining wells. And it is becoming more difficult to increase capacity. Apart from the fact that more Saudi oil will be in future used up by a growing population, there is a question about whether the investments in aluminium, petrochemicals and new economic cities estimated at $600 billion in future years is the best allocation of resources to create jobs. If oil prices decline and oil revenues decline with prices then these projected investments especially in the economic cities and costlier projects may have to be abandoned In that situation there will be more oil available for domestic use but the situation for unemployment may not be much improved. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Germany went through a period of stagnant growth and persistently high unemployment leading to reforms of the welfare system and entitlements under the Schroeder administration. The reforms led to lower unemployment benefits and an effort to get the unemployed take up jobs. Instead of unemployment benefits that amounted to half the salary indefinitely, unemployment benefits ended in 12 months under the reforms, and workers were forced to take up jobs or dig into their savings. The cuts to benefits led to more of the unemployed taking jobs that were not their first choice with lower incomes. Unions agreed to defer wage demands and wages remained relatively flat for a long period. The "kurzarbeit" system of government subsidizing employers to retain workers during economic downturns, helped cushion the workforce from ups and downs in the economy. Unemployment which was in double digits a decade ago, is now 6.1%. The system still preserved some other aspects of generous benefits- parental leave of 14 months at two-thirds salary, vacation time and publicly sponsored health insurance. Recent changes include raising the retirement age to 67 from 65. The Organization of Economc Cooperation and Development estimates that the 200,000 jobs saved in Germany during the recession of 2008-2009 cost the government $7 billion. Government funds helped companies retain workers by paying a portion of worker salaries and averting layoffs.This comes to $35,000 per job. Compare this with the $38.9 billion allocated to a loan program at the Energy Department under the U.S. stimulus. 8050 jobs were created under this program according to the Washington Post- for the money spent so far in Sept 2011- 2 years into the loan program, of $19.3 billion. This comes to $2.4 million in government guaranteed loans per job. The Energy Department says that 33,000 jobs were saved under the $5.9 billion that was given to the auto industry under this program for investments in manufacturing to improve fuel efficiency. This comes to $178,000 per job. The Energy Department and Congress estimated a 5%-10% loss on the $38.6 billion loan program for loans that go sour, such as the Solyndra solar company $535 million loan. This comes to $1.9 billion at 5% loss and $3.8 billion for a 10% loss. The purpose of these figures is to show the cost of programs when the programs fail to achieve job goals or produce too little for the investment. The $3.8 billion loss under the program is over half the $7 billon Germany invested for the 200,000 jobs saved as estimated by the OECD. That ranks as a far superior investment than the Energy Department program. For the U.S. there are aspects of German reforms such as "kurzarbeit" that bear emulation, with serious questions about the effective use of the U.S. stimulus funds. For the rest of Europe the stingier unemployment benefits, raising the retirement age to 67, and other reforms send a different message. From the average German the message is: we made the tough changes, the rest of Europe cannot expect Germans to pay higher taxes while they put off similiar changes. Italy needs to change its retirement age, just as the Germans have done. As Chancellor Merkel puts it: "People in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal shouldn't be able to retire earlier than in Germany. It's important for everybody to put in effort to make it roughly equal. Germany will only help when others really make an effort." Which is why Greece, Spain, Italy, even France are faced with making serious changes. This isn't stalling when it comes to euro bonds, from the German perspective. And it isn't about the lack of committment to the idea of a European Union, as all major political parties in Germany, the CDP, the SDP and the Greens, all strongly support the idea of a European Union. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Tax cuts initiated by the Bush administration and to a smaller degree by the Obama administration account for $6.3 trillon of the $10 trillion deficit in 2011. This is about half the $12.7 trillion gap between the $2.3 trillion surplus predicted by the CBO a decade ago for the year 2011 and the current deficit of $10.4 trillon. Two wars and higher defense spending add another $2 trillion. The Stimulus added $700 billon. The Prescription Drug Benefit for seniors $272 billion. This is based on new analysis of CBO data by the Pew Fiscal Analysis Initiative. The record shows unrestrained spending by both parties has led to the current mess. Pete Domenici who chaired the Senate Budget Committee at the time of the first tax cuts in 2001 says "in the end the floodgates were opened." This also shows how quickly the situation can change if sound fiscal practices are abandoned. Two wars were financed entirely with borrowed money for the first time in U.S. history.

LyrArc Article Gist
Krugman points out that the prevailing bias in the US distorts the facts about Europe's performance. Frankfurt, London and Paris he says are just as lively and modern as New York and Chicago. They are not poor and backward. When you factor out population growth in the USA, since 1980 per capita real GDP which is what affects living standards has grown in America at about the same rate as the 15 European Union countries: 1.95 percent in the USA vs. 1.83 percent for the EU. And for the 25-54 years working age group unemployment in the EU 15 countries in 2008 was 80% of adults (83% in France), which is about the same as in the USA. The French and Germans work fewer hours but output per hour is close to American levels.

LyrArc Article Gist
Palaiologos of the Kathimerini newspaper in Athens, Greece, says the early euphoria of support for Tsipras is fading, as the negotiations with the EU require Tsipras to go back on his election pledges and require difficult choices. He points to a poll from the University of Macedonia putting government support of its negotiating strategy in April 2015 at 45.5%, down from 72% in February 2015. He says the Syriza government has conveyed different and contradictory messages, wasting a lot of the goodwill in Europe for Greece's position, and by backtracking on agreements put Greece back into recession. Greece needs to take responsibility for how deep the crisis is compared to a country like Ireland or Portugal, because of dysfunctional public administration and political systems, says Palaiologos. The EU and Greece need to make a fresh start after all the false starts of the early part of 2015.

LyrArc Article Gist
Huge transfers of wealth and income were taking place in the US in the last 10 years leading to some of the glaring wealth gaps and unequal distribution of wealth and income in the US. This has threatened the social fabric of American society when combined with other factors such as unjustifiably high healthcare costs, and the shipping of American manufacturing overseas. This WSJ report looks at the transfer of wealth to the financial industry of at least $600 billion but much more than this since 2014 from interest rates of near zero. As over half of the population in the US concentrated at the lower end of the income and wealth spectrum does not invest in stock markets the policy at central banks designed by economists and the financial industry has engineered outcomes that have damaged the social fabric of American society. Distributed throughout the lower income groups, along with Made in America manufacturing, and other policies that takes working families and quality of living into account would have prevented the hugely unequal distribution of wealth and income in society. The pandemic marks a watershed period that has revealed this glaring weakness from long supply chains, to policies that were not good for working families, the impact on climate change, leading to the kinds of changes and investments in working families that are being made by the Biden administration today. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Talks on June 28-29 in Rome between President Francois Hollande of France and Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany. They will be joined by the Italian and Spanish prime ministers, Mario Monti and Mariano Rajoy. Hollande has invited the opposition Social Democrats in Germany for talks in Paris to win support for his approach to the eurozone crisis. The growth initiative proposed by Hollande is fairly modest and Merkel has expressed her support for this. The tougher issues revolve around some acceptable form of mutualizing of eurozone debt to tackle a loss of confidence in financial markets without a surrender of sovereignty by France and other eurozone nations- a particularly sensitive issue in France. More Europe, would mean more German influence in decisionmaking. Germany rejects eurobonds and direct aid to banks from the ECB. Centralized banking supervision and close regulation by a new European regulatory authority would be needed as part of a new eurozone financial architecture. The immediate issues are of some form of deposit insurance for the eurozone banking system so that there is no run on the banks in Spain and other countries....

LyrArc Article Gist
NATO was formed in the days of the Truman administration on 25th July 1949, following the Berlin Blockade, the coup in Czechoslovakia by Soviets, and the efforts to set up pro soviet governments in Turkey and Greece. It accomplished its purpose by pushing back against the Soviet effort securing democracy in Greece and Turkey in the 1950's. Much of this was achieved under Heads of NATO from the US- Gen. Eisenhower, Gen. Ridgway, Gen. Guenther and Gern Norstad proteges of Ike all from West Point by 1964, when Brezhnev was new head of Soviet Union and by 1991 Warsaw Pact of Soviets setup in 1955 was dissolved yet NATO was not. The US interests shifted to Asia - Gen MacArthur leading a UN effort in Korea and the US leading its own effort in Vietnam in the 1960's. The Soviet threat actually receded after 1964 when Brezhnev became head of Soviet Union till 1982. During that period in the 1970's till today the face of NATO as today was from a series of heads of governments of Dutch Stikker in 1970's or other small European states such as Norway Stoltenberg and Rutte Netherlands again in 2025. It could be said that none of these leaders  of small EU countries represented US interests- or even European interests- a point the DJT administration is trying to make. It hurt the US in Venezuela as Russia propped up a regime which led to millions of refugees entering the US illegally. And it hurt Europe as Russia propped up the Syrian regime with millions of refugees entering Germany and destabilizing its political structure. Going back if a new defense institution was set up to replace NATO by the Europeans in 1970's this would have been the right step which would have not led to Russia propping up regimes in the Americas or the Middle East. A goal that is being discussed with Russia by the DJT administration to refocus American efforts in a new direction and pause not just the Ukraine war but also put the US  and Russia in a new direction with the new competition from 3 billion people in China and India. WSJ Editorial Board takes the British position on the Ukraine peace proposals with centuries old skeptical attitude on Russia's intentions. The US government position put forward by DJT is that there are constructive discussions with Russia, and the need to settle the underlying issues behind the conflict. This includes NATO's future. NATO setup in 1949 for Soviets,  on the borders of Russia in 2025 after the end of the Cold War when its rival the Warsaw Pact set up in 1955 of the Soviets was disbanded in 1991. The British position comes from centuries of conflict in Europe and its interests in protecting its Empire till the 1950's remaining unchanged, and cannot reflect American interests in the 21st century as its economy competes with China and India and the EU, and seeks to do this by keeping former colonial powers out of the Americas including Russia, and China.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The passage of another round of austerity cuts through the Greek parliament by prime minister Papandreou leaves him with little political capital. Greece's debt is expected to get worse as the austerity cuts worsen the economic situation. This round of austerity cuts with no realistic restructuring of Greek debt is basically kicking the can down the road by governments in the EU say some economists. The implementation of the cuts will be a major challenge for Papandreou's government, which won the election on the basis of a social welfare program. Some analysts do not expect his government to last for the rest of 2011.

LyrArc Article Gist
Ideas being considered in the talks to raise the U.S. debt ceiling are a one year extension of the 2 percentage point reduction in the payroll tax for employees. Changes in Social Security being considered are raising the eligibility age from 65 to 67, phasing in the increase till 2036. Another change would be to slow the adjustments in Social Security for inflation.