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Mr. F. W. De Klerk, former president of South Africa from 1989 to 1994 and deputy president under Nelson Mandela till 1996, set the path for reconciliation and a mutiracial open society based on democratic process after Apartheid. Here he says some of the original vision for reconciliation and multiracial society based on constitutional processes is being lost under the presidency of Jacob Zuma of the ANC. He points to the growth rate of 5% achieved under president Thabo Mbeki from 2005 to 2007. The economic stagnation and corruption under the Zuma administration means South Africa is falling behind in tackling problems of wide disparity in incomes of the vast majority of black people, as only about 15% of the black population have benefitted under president Zuma. WIth political appointees in key positions for state run enterprises, municipal administration, and in the public service, services to the public are deteriorating. The Communist Party's hold on key postiions in the ANC and 12 cabinet positions, is reversing policies for an open economy with more state control. De Klerk says the point at which this happened was in Dec. 2007, when certain factions led by Mr. Zuma took control of the ANC at its national conference in Polokwane. The drop in commodities prices have hit South Africa hard and poor management of the economy adds to South Africa's many problems in 2015....

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The minimum non-negotiable "breakout window" for 2015 nuclear negotiations of the EU, the U.S. and other nations with Iran, is a period of 12 months. The term "breakout window" refers to the period in which Iran decides to breakout of a signed nuclear agreement and rushes to develop nuclear weapons. It should take at least 12 months for Iran to be able to develop a weapon so that there is time to develop an effective response to the threat to world peace.

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United Airlines has asked Airbus and Boeing to come up with competing bids for 150 new jetliners, an order worth an estimated $10 billion. After the 9/11 bombings, with the slowdown in air travel and the steep losses airlines suffered from high oil prices, its the overseas airlines that made the big orders. The domestic airlines were content to work with an aging fleet. United's move at this time may be calculated to take advantage of the improving credit situation, and the lower prices of steel and other commodities to get better pricing from manufacturers. The thrust of the order is to replace 11 of United's wide body fleet, the Boeing 747,757,767,and 777 model fleet. The average of these planes is 747-13 years, 777- 10 years, 767- 14 years, 757-17 years. See graph. The most crucual conditions United is looking for are financing arranged by the manufacturer that does not use United's cash, and the flexibility to change the order later if market conditions change. United sees this as amove to get good pricing and financing terms now so that when the planes are delvered over time, spread out over several years, the planes would come in just when air travel is picking up with an economic recovery. If it does not get the terms it wants, United may wait. It has already retired half of its oldest planes, the Boeing 737's, with the remaining half due to be replaced by end of 2009. United's competitor American Airlines, announced in fall 2008, that it wants to order upto 100 Boeing jetliners if it can get new agreements with its pilots union. In spring 2009 American speeded up deliveries of 737-800's to replace some of its old MD-80's. Newer aircraft mean better fuel efficiency, and ways to cover routes that are not possible with older aircraft....

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This report shows an alarming trend in China which is fueling a real estate bubble similar to the one that Japan, and more recently the U.S., experienced. State owned companies are actively speculating in real estate, and are buying real estate from local governments eager to profit from the real estate boom. Local governments obtain land and build infrastructure on it to raise the price that they can get for it in an auction. In many cases one state owned company outbids another state owned company from different sectors such as oil, chemical, military, telecom and highway. Land records reveal that 82% of land auctions in Beijing in 2010 were won by state-owned companies up from 59% in 2008. The National Bureau of Economic Research in Cambridge, Massachusetts, has estimated that land prices leaped by 750% from 2003, with half of this happening in 2008-2010. In many cities housing prices have doubled in the last 2 years. The National Bureau estimates that on average these state owned companies paid 27% more for the same piece of land than other bidders. China's $586 billion stimulus and its aggressive lending program by state owned banks may have helped in other ways after the 2008 economic crisis, but in this area it has fueled a real estate speculation boom, with the local government and state owned companies being the key participants in this speculation. Local governments earned an estimated $230 billion in land auctions in 2009. The demolition of older neighborhoods and poorly compensating residents are all part of the effort by local governments to profit from this speculative boom. The implications for the banks are serious. Local governments use other companies created for the purpose to engage in this investment in land. And off-balance sheet accounts create the danger that China's state owned banks may have enormous amounts of debt that is not showing up in the regular accounting. Analysts say that the $1.4 trillion in loans made by state banks in 2009 was twice that in 2008, and a large portion of this was diverted into real estate speculation with records set in land bids and booming prices. All this is happening as China's Ginni coefficient has deteriorated rapidly. And the simple fact remains that even as apartment prices exceeded $200,000 in Shanghai, the average disposable income is about $4000 per year. Prof. Shih of Northwesten University has followed the investment companies of the local governments closely and comes to similar conclusions about the size and implications of this real estate bubble in progress. Shih estimates LIC (local investment companies) debt owed to banks at $1.68 trillion or 34% of China's GDP. See the link to BW's Dexter Roberts. ...

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Bloomberg television interviews Russian President Medvedev.

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With China's automobile market declining for the fifth month in a row, and trade tensions rising, it now appears that carmakers such as Ford expanded too quickly in the Chinese market. Ford, Peugeot, and Hyundai appear to have poorly times their expansion in China, expanding at the tail end of the Chinese boom just ahead of the new Trump administration's efforts to challenge China's lopsided trade balance.  It has become so bad that this report shows workers at a Peugeot factory in China spending their days washing floors and attending Communist political study sessions at work. At a Ford plant workers shifts are reduced to a couple of days a month. Sales grew 3% in 2017 and declined 2% in the first 11 months of 2018, after increases of 14% in previous years taking the market to 28 million in a dizzying ride as it surpassed the U.S. sales of 17.5 million. Overcapacity is a problem in China with the aggressive expansion. There is capacity to make 43 million cars, but will produce 29 million in 2018, according to PwC, consulting firm. Ford meanwhile put in a new plant in Harbin in 2017, expanding its capacity to 1.6 million a year, but sales peaked at 1.27 million in 2016, and are down 6% in 2017, and 34% in 2018 to about 700,000. While there are no layoffs some workers are making only $220 monthly, forcing them to take second jobs as cab drivers or couriers. Suzuki decided to quit in 2018 exiting China entirely just so it would not pile up losses in what is now a market that is way overblown from the boom years. Electric vehicle production in the pipeline of about 7.5 million vehicles will compound this problem further with 32 new plants planned by 26 firms.   ...

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Chrysler's sales are dropping the fastest of all the car companies . April 2009 sales dropped 24% from March 2009. Ford sales are doing better than Toyota, as they declined in April over same month prior year by 32%, compared to 42% for Toyota. It appears that the Buy American factor may be helping Ford Motor more than the other American car companies, and that Chrysler also suffers from the lack of new models with new technology and investment in new features. At GM the situation is better at Chevrolet, Buick, Cadillac and GMC, where sales in April 2009 declined by 29%, over same month prior year, which compares with a 55% decline in sales, of Pontiac, Hummer, Saab, and Saturn brands which are likely to be dropped. See the related link on same day on steep fall in Chrysler sales.

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White drives a Chrysler 300 sedan diesel powered and made for European use, fast enough to go past speed limit but still gives an average of 28 miles in city and highway driving. The EPA rating for this car is 22 miles per gallon in its US V-6 model, so the Chrysler CRD 300 made for Europe has a 27% fuel efficiency advantage over its American counterpart. White borrowed it from a friend who was showing European diesel technology in the U.S. Cleaner diesel technology is spotlighted in this test drive. Also attention is drawn to fuel availability. This fall oil companies will be required to supply Americans at the gas pump with low sulfur diesel fuels on which the diesel cars with the clean diesel technology run, for cars like the Chrysler CRD 300. Automakers from Japan, Europe and the US are looking to transfer this technology developed for Europe to the US, with some improvements to meet American environmental standards, especially in lare sedans, SUV's and pickups. The statistics for US diesel use on the road are as follows: 1. About 3-4% of light vehicles in the US run on diesel. White quotes industry executives as comfortable with a JD Power estimate of diesel use by 2010-2012, or about 6-8 year horizon of 10% of all passenger vehicles. 2. John Moulton, president of the powertrain division of Robert Bosch Gmbh, forecast diesel use by 15% of the passenger vehicles in the U.S. by 2015. Use in Europe is about 50% by comparison. 3. Usage of diesel will be highest in the bigger cars and vehicles . This is where the 20-30% savings in fuel cost would be substantial enough to cover the $2000-$6000 additional cost for the diesel powered vehicles using the latest clean diesel technology. DaimlerChrysler is already moving forward with coming up with versions of the diesel models used in Europe for the American market. VW currently is the leader in the American market. About 20% of VW's sold in April 2006 use diesel. This is going up every year 12% in 2004, 14% in 2005. In 2008 VW will have all its mainstream models available in all 50 states in diesel versions. ...

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King Salman appoints Mohamed bin Nayef, 55 years-old, as the deputy crown prince in Jan. 2015. The crown prince is Muqrin Abdulaziz, 69 years-old. Mohamed Bin Nayef is the son of the Interior Minister, who worked under his father from 1999 till he became the new Interior minister in 2012. Nayef has pursued an aggressive program to remove Al Qaeda in Saudi Arabia. By taking action against all dissent inside Saudi Arabia Nayef has also jailed human rights activists, including the flogging of a blogger critical of the government. The defense minister Prince Mohamed bin Salman, is a son of King Salman. King Salman was defense minister till he succeeded his half-brother Abdullah. Ali al-Naimi continues as Oil minister, a position he has held for decades. Saudi Arabia established a panel in 2006 to work with future kings after King Salman to appoint an heir to the throne. Even with the appointment of Nayef, a grandson of Saudi Arabia's founder, Abdulaziz ibn Saud, as deputy crown prince, the leadership of the country remains within a small number of princes of the royal family. Under the Obama administration the relations between U.S. and Saudi Arabia have become strained with president Obama's failure to intervene in Syria. The Saudi have pursued their own policies since then, in first Bahrain and then Egypt the Saudis supported the monarchy and the military respectively to maintain power in the face of the Arab Spring. The danger is that Saudi policies may be contrary to the U.S. position supporting freely elected governments and basic rights, particularly when it comes to suppression of all dissent including peaceful dissent and normal criticism of government, and yet with the rise of Islamic State the U.S. puts itself inadvertently behind these very policies. The Saudis would say this has happened because U.S. president Obama failed to support the effort for freedom in Syria and a transition in Libya and Iraq (with the added complication of Maliki's sectarian policies), creating a war torn neighborhood in which the Saudis had to act on their own. These are the hidden costs of the policy of the U.S. president for the U.S. and for the Middle East- more sectarianism with Shiites and Sunnis openly in conflict, reversal of hard won gains in Iraq, reversal of the Arab Spring except in Tunisia, war torn Libya and Iraq- with a withdrawal that never truly happened because it required a firmly guided transition period of support in the region with lower cost and involvement of an extended period leaving no room for reversal of gains. It leaves both the Saudis and the U.S. in a more precarious position than a decade ago....

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Complacency from the Bush Administration reflected in the remarks of Edward Lazear the Chairman of the Council of Economic Advisors in the outgoing Bush administration. He sees no recession in the USA. "I would be very surprised if the NBER looking back at this period would date this as a recession" is what he is quoted as saying to reporters. He went on to say that the $152 billion stimulus of government checks mailed to the people, and Fed interest rate cuts should make the second half of the year a "solid growth period." What this means is that the moves by Congress to help homeowners stave off a new wave of foreclosures through a bill that just passed through Congress on May 7, 2008, is likely to be vetoed by Bush and efforts along the lines suggested by Martin Feldstein, Chairman of Council of Economic Advisors under Reagan, and Sheila Bair at FDIC, to help homeowners avoid foreclosure in her proposal may remain just that as proposals. This situation is likely to be turned over to a new President and make for an election that may revolve around economic issues, as the next wave of foreclosures lead to the start of a declining spiral in home prices leading to further loses in the credit markets and corporate bankruptcies of weaker firms and resulting losses in employment. Rising crude oil prices may result in much of the stimulus being eaten up by paying of some of the debt burden of consumers and rising costs of gasoline at the gas pump. And Feldstein has been very vocal, as have others, about the ineffectiveness of interest rate cuts in the current situation, even doing an oped piece titled "Enough of Interest Rate Cuts." In this sense the current spell of calm in the financial markets may be deceiving, giving Paulson an others in the administration a false sense of hope, and deprive the world economy of some reasonable action to prevent the wave of foreclosures and falling home prices that could set things distinctly downward in the world's largest economy and impacting the rest of the world....

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Schmidle describes how the militancy in Pakistan's border provinces is shifting to younger people who continue fighting the old battles against America and the West. He observes the opening of a campaign office of the Islamist party, the Jamiat Ulema -e-Islam or J.I.I., from a crowded rooftop in Quetta, Baluchistan, where this party runs the provincial government. The rhetoric against the U.S. is mild compared to earlier years, as a new election approaches. In the last election the Islamist parties under the alliance Mutahida Majlis-e-Amal, won 10% of the vote with pro-Taliban sentiment running high. The MMA alliance ran two provincial governments. Now there is asplit in the Islamist parties, between the factions working within the democratic process and other factions including younger militants who are against Musharraf and elections. This comes after the shooting of Benazir Bhutto by militant Islamists.

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Karen Elliott House, a widely respected expert on Saudi Arabia, gives her assessment of the Saudi situation as the Obama administration completes a nuclear deal with Iran in July 2015. She says the Saudis have few options in the short term. She also points out that the unfreezing of $100 billion in assets of Iran by the end of 2015, and the lifting of economic sanctions, could exacerbate tensions in the Middle East if Iran uses the money to increase support to proxies in the Middle East. Saudi Arabia has a large population of young people and high youth unemployment, increasing political risks, says Karen House.

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Trust bank is rescued with a $530 million injection by Russia's central bank in Dec. 2014. The bank was taken over by the Deposit Insurance Agency which guaranteed the deposits of customers. As Russia raises interests by 17%, the ruble stabilizes with a 5% gain on Dec. 22, 2014. Alexei Kudrin, former finance minister and the architect of Russia's improved finances during Putin's previous terms in office, told a news conference that Russia now faces a full fledged economic crisis that will be painful in 2015. He expects a drop of 40% in imports, inflation at 12 to 15%, and decline in living standards. He also said Russia's credit rating could fall to junk status making it difficult to obtain financing. Kudrin was critical of the way the Russian government handled the crisis, saying action was slow and the government did not act as one team. He called for improved relations with western partners- "For a way out of the crisis, it is of high importance to regulate relations with our foreign partners- first of all with Europe, the U.S. and other partners."...

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Giridharadas cites artists, students, television commentators, and others in Istanbul as he looks at the change in Turkey under prime minister Erdogan. There are he says two Turkeys one secular setup by Kemal Ataturk to modernize Turkey, and the other fostered by Erdogan that looks to its Muslim roots, and the two are simply drifting away from each other. There is too little conversation between the two. In the middle are Turks who see the change as a necessary adjustment to accept the country's roots in Anatolia and the surrounding countryside, and see it possible for Turks to be secular in their public lives and world outlook and preserve Muslim traditons in their private lives. Turkey's economy is also changing with increasing trade relations with other Middle East countries including Iran, Iraq and Egypt balancing its ties with the European Union countries.

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Neil Irwin of NYT provides some counter intuitive ideas on U.S. Fed interest rate policy. He says it can't be take as a given that the Fed will raise rates in 2017-2018. This depends on how much punch there is in the Trump economic policies for stimulus, and for infrastructure spending, tax cuts. He cites Senate Majority Leader McConnell who said he would like to keep "tax reform revenue neutral." Getting large spending and pushing up the deficit is likely to run up against Republicans in Congress who have for 8 years opposed large spending increases and large deficits. Trump has given few details about his stimulus or infrastructure spending plans. He says the scale of the spending might not match the talk. Irwin cites JP Morgan Chase economists who have kept their forecasts for GDP growth just under 2% for 2017 and 2018. And he points out that even Trump appointees at the Fed might act independently. The Fed might look at being cautious considering that increased trade tensions with China, and the unpredictability of a Trump administration could hurt growth. Irwin does not mention the uncertainty in other areas such as policy towards Russia on which the Republican party and Congress have very different views than Trump, tensions over Taiwan, that can also affect growth. ...

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BP and the Libyan government sign agreement on a natural gas exploration deal. BP will eventually invest about $2 billion in this deal. Tony Hayward now CEO was head of oil and gas exploration for BP and he personally pushed 18 months of negotiations with Libya before tying up this deal. It helps BP build up its reserve base when it is having problems in Prudhoe Bay and on a project in Russia. See the NYTimes today on the Russian deal in which Gazprom is likely to obtain control.