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The introduction of the new currency the Real was the first step along with inflation targeting cutting spending and keeping strict control of money growth that brought runaway inflation down to 22% annually by 1995. The transparency, announcing the plan for the Real months ahead and calming expectations were reasons for the success of the Real. Life was entirely unpredictable when inflation had reached 2000% in 1993.

It was Henrique Cardoso of centre right party that introduced the Real currency and took the steps to finally control inflation. He was president for 2 terms 1994-1998 and was from Rio de Janeiro state. Most of the politics of Brazil before this was from politicians from three states Minas Gerais milk producing region, Rio Grande de Sul, and the state of Sao Paulo with coffee plantations in the south east of the country. 

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Republicans representing poorer rural and working class communities, Democrats wealthy suburban communities 2025. 26 to 56 vs 69 what this means is that Republicans who in 2009 represented 26 of the poorest 100 House of Representatives Districts now represent 56 in 2023. By Contrast Democrats in 2023 represent 69 of the wealthiest House Districts in the Nation. It is a complete reverse, as big as the change that took place under FDR/Truman and LBJ where the South gradually shifted to Democratic from Republican and the North and Northeast Unites States  moved from Republican to Democratic party.

This puts Republicans traditional position to cut Medicaid in a quandary as it may affect their control of the House in future elections. This report in WSJ looks at details by District of what could happen.

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Martin Feldstein points out why the recent agreement for a "fiscal compact" is no more than an empty statement about fixing the eurozone's finances. In this respect it is no different than the Stability and Growth Pact it replaces, with serious weaknesses. Feldstein cites the weaknesses in the language of the agreement. Each eurozone country is required to limit its"cyclically adjusted" budget deficit to 0.5% of GDP and bring its debt down to 60% of GDP. Compliance will be performed by the European Court of Justice and fines imposed. In practice the questions loom large- for a country like Spain with a 23% unemployment rate, isn't all of the 6% budget deficit cyclical? Again the agreement says deficits are calculated "net of one-off and temporary measures." Under this provision a lot of the stimulus programs would be considered in the category of "one-off." Other language lets eurozone countries frame budgets based on "exceptional circumstances" and "periods of severe economic downturn." Italy has declining economic growth, does it make sense to have a large budget surplus in that situation to lower debt to GDP, and how does that goal relate to "exceptional circumstances."...

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Peter Orszag's role in the healthcare debate and the formulation of health care policy proposals. One proposal of Orszag, who heads the Congressional Budget Office, is to set up a new agency with powers to cut spending and implement changes in Medicare. Says Orszag, "one of the reasons we have such disjointed and skewed incentives is that we have an excessively political process." At a recent meeting with House Democrats, one Congresswoman said her top priority is winning higher payments for oxygen suppliers, and Orszag was taken aback. For years officials have been trying to cut payments to oxygen and medical equipment suppliers, which are said to be inflated. When a new competitive bidding process was set to take effect last year, industry supporters in Congress were able to delay the plan, and these supporters are still fighting to block changes says the WSJ. Here is a 40 year old Orszag, with degrees from Princeton and London School of Economics, who got his early experience in the Clinton adminstration at age 24. He then followed this with a number of policy oriented jobs, ending with appointment to head CBO in 2007. And he faces the whole system of Congressmen from both parties beholden to interests in the healthcare industry, who provide the donations for them to finance their election campaigns. Dan Eggen describes this in the Washington Post, 7/21/2009. Max Baucus of Montana, and to some extent Grassley of Iowa, are senators from both parties who Eggen points out are beholden to the healthcare industry because of large donations they receive from the interests in the healthcare industry. These interests want to see their payments system protected. The further escalation in health care costs, which would make the whole healthcare system unaffordable even as it delivers poor results, can only be prevented by making cost control an exercize that is not influenced by healthcare industry donations. Jackie Calmes describes the huge hurdles in achieving a deficit neutral move to universal health care in the U.S. in the NYT 6/26/2009. See the link. The exchange between Grassley and Orszag on the issue of the $177 billion in savings needed from the payments to health insurers under the Medicare managed care plans- which allow seniors to obtain Medicare coverage outside the government run program -went as follows. These are dubbed overpayments by outside experts and efforts have been made to cut them in Congress. When Mr Grassley raised concerns about the impact of such cuts in a hearing, -and Grassley has opposed the cut for this overpayment to insurers- Orszag responded saying: "I very firmly believe that capitalism is not founded on excessively high subsidies to private firms. This is what this system delivers right now." ...

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The success of the 9 euro rail pass introduced in Germany in increasing rail use and reducing pollution and congestion on highways is described here in The Guardian. For 9 euros one could travel throughout Germany on Deutsche Bahn rail network for one month in June, July or August.  Less traffic congestion and better driving times in 23 of 26 cities in Germany, and a jump in short journeys by rail between 30 kms and 100 kms, and between 100 and 300 kms, are shown here for Germany.

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Germany which handled the first wave of the coronavirus better than France or Spain with better testing and contact tracing is now facing the second wave. Following the reopening Germany went back to normal with fewer restrictions. Some Germans ignored restrictions and Germans travelled to other countries. German students in Croatia in summer tourism are reported to be part of the 21 million tourists in the country in summer that failed to follow any restrictions. The result is that Germans now fear the second wave is beginning to hit Germany.

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U.S. toughens sanctions on Iran saying it would impose sanctions on all countries if they did not cut oil imports to zero by Nov. 4. Earlier expectation was that the U.S. would give waivers to countries that had made substantial progress to cut oil imports. In the past 20% cut in imports earned waivers in the Obama administration. U.S. is asking other Middle Eastern producers to increase production to meet demand. Banks refusal to finance trades is causing Indian Oil and Italy's Saras to cut oil imports from Iran.

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Government GDP figures show the GDP shrank by 1.8% in the third quarter of 2016 compared to the same period in 2015, the first such contraction in the economy since 2009. Household consumption was down 3.2%. The sharp decline in the value of the lira by 20% in 2016 makes imports costlier, in an economy dependent on consumption spending and tourism for higher GDP growth. Political uncertainty with instability in Turkey following a crackdown on opposition and media also leads to decline in foreign investment and investment by domestic firms.

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This Economist opinion says even though some of the Mueller investigation findings are sensational, not much would happen unless 20 Republican Senators broke with the president. The final report from the Mueller investigation is not expected to be made public. And expectations of the impact may depend more on political facts in Congress and support for the president rather than the legal findings, says the Economist magazine. Views of many Republicans in Congress have not changed and many have figured out that their political future depends on publicly supporting the president.

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Americans are increasingly using messaging apps to post status and photos. In the last quarter of 2018 the users posting status and comments dropped by 10% to 23%, for photos posted it dropped by 10% to 28%. This shift means people are posting less on news feeds and more on privately encrypted messaging apps such as WhatsApp, and WeChat in China. WeChat also does payments and e-commerce. Facebook is making the change as it shifts away from news feeds that have faced a credibility gap.

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A research paper by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York shows 43% of Americans in 2012 under the age of 25 with student debt, having average debt of $20,326. Compare this with about 25% of young Americans having student debt in 2003, with average debt of $10,649. This is crowding out other borrowing such as buying new homes or cars by younger Americans because of borrower unwillingness to take on more debt and banks unwilling to lend to borrowers who might default.

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In remarks published in English on the Bundesbank website, Jens Weidmann, Bundesbank president and member of the ECB governing council said: "The ECB should be aware of its independence. This also requires it to respect, and not to overstep its own mandate." This is seen as a pushback by the Bundesbank to ECB president Draghi's comments on July 23, 2012, about doing all that is necessary to keep the eurozone together. Weidmann referring to the situation in France recollecting his days as a student in France in 1987, said there were "two different worldviews colliding." And that this situation prevailed in all political debates right up to the present day. He says about deflationary tendencies -"If these countries go through adjustment processes which result in decreases in wages and prices, then this constitutes one-off shifts in the wage and price structure and not deflation."

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This report in DW.com show the level shopping spree has reached in China. A 24 hour Singles Day on November 11 is a day for online shopping spree in China. It was started in 2009 and reached about $18 billion in 2016. About half of China's population has mobile phones and 90% of sales are on mobile.

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Roosevelt say experts was a great crisis manager but not great when it comes to policies to create jobs. His achievements were stabilizing the banking system with deposit insurance, government investment in banks, and restrictions on banking practices, creation of the SEC, and fireside chats that steadied the national mood. Unemployment when he took office in 1933 was 25% from 3% in 1929, and industrial production had dropped 40% since 1929. So FDR took office when a lot of the damage had already been done, compared to that Obama takes office earlier in this downturn. And Roosevelt did not fully grasp John Maynard Keynes's advice when he visited the White House in 1934. Keynes complained to Labor Secretary Ms. Perkins that he had thought the President was more literate economically speaking, while the President felt Keynes had a rigmarole of figures he did not understand. Roosevelt said of Keynes: "He must be a mathematician rather than a political economist." It took some time for government spending to take hold. Throughout the 1930's government spending remained around 20% as a share of the economy. Today its 35%. And the average unemployment stayed at stubborn 17% on average for the decade of the 1930's. It was not till the 1940's that things changed. Total government spending as a share of the economy reached 52% in 1942 with the onset of the war, and peaked at 70% in 1944 when the unemployment rate dropped to 1%. One lesson experts say is that its easier to stem unemployment and job losses by action earlier in the downward spiral through vigorous action by government. In retrospect because industrial production fell by 40% during the 1930's experts say Roosevelt was actually timid in his response. U.S. Fed chairman Bernanke is a student of this period and draws a similiar lesson from that period for vigorous action early in the crisis....

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The coalition in Ireland remains in power with Sinn Fein at 21%, yet the combined vote for Fine Gael+ Fianna Fail at 40%. Sinn Fein is the political party of the IRA which is now focused on local issues such as housing, immigration and transport.

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The Arab League votes to impose sanctions on Syria with a vote of 18 of its 22 members.

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Ford's earnings were $2.55 billion for the first quarter of 2011, a 22% increase over the prior year.

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The 2014 budget for Spain is free of the strong austerity measures, cuts in spending, and tax increases, of earlier budgets. Growth is expected to be 0.7% in 2014, after 1.3% decline in 2013. The unemployment rate is set to decline from 27% high in first quarter of 2013, to 25.9% in 2014. Savings of $800 million euros will come from changes in the pension system and civil servants face a freeze in salaries for the fourth year. The premium over German government bonds for Spain's government bonds is now less than that of government bonds of Italy. Cost of financing Spain's debt is projected to decline by 5.2% to 36.6 billion euros, according to Treasury minister Montero. The EU with the backing of the IMF has considered the high unemployment in Spain in its decision to relax deficit targets. This has given Spain an opportunity to clean up its accounts without further damage to the economy. Spain's deficit will now decline to 6.5% in 2013 from a deficit of 6.8% in 2012. The target for the deficit is set at 5.8% for 2014. Credit is still tight and consumer spending weak, major concerns for the government- in addition to the need for creating jobs- of prime minister Rajoy....

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Research firm Dragonomics says real estate prices fell 4.9% in April from the prior year for nine cities in China. In 2010 prices in these nine cities went up by 21.5%, the increase in 2009 was 10%. Standard Chartered estimates China's second tier cities, such as Dalian and Tianjin, could have 20 months of housing inventory by the end of 2011. Standard Chartered says price declines of 10-20% can be expected. Government data understates the extent of the bubble and the drop in prices say analysts. Beijing real estate consultant, Soufun, confirms the slowdown in price increases, saying its data show average property prices went up by 5.1% in May over the prior year, compared to the jump in prices in 2009 and 2010. Prices of copper and steel are coming down after rapid increases. The price increases in the Chinese real estate market have put housing out of the reach of ordinary couples. In 2006 an average price of a new apartment in Beijing cost $100,000, by 2011 this had gone up to $250,000. It woud take 57 years of saving for an average person to buy the apartment at todays cost. The government's response has been to boost down payments on mortgages for second homes to 60% from 40%, prohibiting state owned enterprises outside the real estate sector from investing in real estate, and raising the reserve requirements of banks....

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Advertising revenues increased for Google, Facebook and Amazon in 2020 as these three companies took over 50% of total ad revenues in 2020. Large companies shifted more ad spending from television and print media to digital in the pandemic after finding the return on ad spending was increasing on digital. Smaller companies including the jump in startup companies increasing from 300,000 a month over the decade to 500,000 by July 2020, put all their ad dollars into digital. The result is that the pandemic has given the 3 digital companies a dominant role in the advertising economy. More time spent in front of computer screens, more ec-commerce, new business formation, and tech companies ability to steadily increase return on ad investment, has produced strong revenue generation. The pandemic had the effect of increasing retail purchases online from 10% to 16% in the second quarter of 2020. Biscuit maker Mondelez found that return on ad spending was 25% higher on digital compared to television and now spends about half of its $1.1 billion ad budget on digital. Trendy garment makers are seeing returns on ad spending that are high with quadrupling of sales following a doubling of ad budget for active apparel maker Vuori of California. Small advertisers such as Vuori are the reason digital ad spending has remained strong for Google, Facebook and Amazon. For furniture maker Steelcase in Michigan the return on ad spending on digital using Amazon made up for the lack of sales from its brick stores. It increased online staff from 2 to 25 and was able to bring in $30 in sales dollars from $1 in digital ad spending. ...

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Marco Rubio has shown an exceptional grasp of Latin America from his days representing Florida in the Senate, about a decade in the Senate when he has closely followed events and acquired a deep knowledge of Latin America. His answers at Congressional hearing were exceptionally good, and showed an ability and earnest desire to get good results for the Venezuelan people, sharing aninterest in the good for Latin America being a person of latin American origin who speaks fluent Spanish as a native language. Points made by Venezuela in answering questions from senators in the US Senate hearings- All of Latin America welcomed the US action to remove Maduro from Venezuela.  It affects Colombia and neighboring countries. Colombian rebel groups control parts of Venezuelan territory and operate from there.  Multiple administrations had deals with Maduro. Maduro kept none of the deals including the one with Biden for free and fair elections.  To be realistic in situations such as Spain, Paraguay, there were transitions before safe and fair return to normalcy and democratic government returned after decades of dictatorship. RUbio showed an exceptional grasp of the Latin Ameican situation and reminded senator Murphy that he had been in the Senate for decade and worked with the senators now on the other side to remove Maduro amd nothing had worked. Venezuela is a rich country , the most affluent in Latin America. It does not need money from the US. Before the Chavez dictatorship it was a country with democratic forms of government, and a country friendly to the US.  The action taken was a quarantine not a blockade. By controlling oil going out of Venezuela the lifeline for the country the US has control over its finances and the economy, budgets, the government finances. The immediate task was getting the oil out of the country as there was no place to put it and US had it sold at market prices not sent to China at a 20% discount for which Venezuela got nothing except paying off debt to China. The current authorites are cooperating with the US on the budget, they have to submit budget requests and the US approves it item by item and an audit agency is being set up including Ex-Im. Bank an other options to make sure the money is being spent on salaries and for the Venezuelan people. The money goes to an account for Venezuela at the US Treasury Department. In 4 weeks a lot has been accomplished. What happens in 6 months - for that actions are more important than words, it should be a marked improvement over today. Including setting up the US diplomatic presence in Caracas which means talking to the government on the ground, talking to civil society, talking to the Opposition.  ...

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WSJ Quiz on data centers- test your knowledge. Does China have the most data centers? No the US with 4000, followed by Britain with 515 and Germany with 500 showing that China is not in the AI craze the way the US is even though the idea of the US falling behind in AI is used to get trillions of dollars in AI funding. This only means infrastructure that is dilapidated and broken in the US will not be replaced, and that the US plan to reindustrialize to get jobs will lack funding as dollars are diverted from these essential and vital needs to AI. Eventually Asian countries with new infrastructure will find ways to get that US technology without having to pay for it. The American public will be paying for this AI craze. We at Lyrarc.com checked how many data centers China has built? The number is 250 data centers are operational and note this in the MIT Technology Review it says 80% of these data centers are not being used, there is 80% overcapacity in China. Because China's AI such as Deep Seek is designed so that it uses less computing power. What this means is that only the US will put over 3 times the combined data centers put in by China, UK and Germany for AI and US will put in 16 times the data centers China has put in. As China only needs or is using 20% of its 250 operational data centers or 50 data centers the US is putting in 80 times the data center capacity China is using in 2026. Why 80 times? Because China has a Plan and it can manage the supply to the need or demand. In the US each company is trying to put so many in so it can get the leadership position in the market. For example Amazon puts in $200 billion instead of the $100 billion it can afford simply to be in the leadership ranks. There is much wasteful spending in the US market system than China's coordinated effort in a new technology even though ideologues like to say the US system is superior, and a plan by the state is frowned upon in the US, costing the US dearly when it lost its entire manufacturing base to China while economists said everything was OK. Even the WSJ Quiz fails to ask the question we asked about China and how many data centers China has actually made operational, how much is overcapacity- 250 datacenters and 80% overcapacity. Showing how little the public knows and even WSJ has looked into, giving a few companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and others the freedom to spend in a reckless way so that future infrastructure investments and reindustrialization investments will be crowded out in the US economy. And economists as usual will say its OK. ...

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British prime minister Theresa May makes a bid for working class votes in the 2017 election, just as the Labor party under Jeremy Corbyn announces its own manifesto seeking working class votes. May has proposed increasing the minimum wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020, and increased funding for the National Health Service by 8 billion pounds over 5 years. Corporate taxes will be reduced from 19 to 17% compared to Labor Party raising it to 26% under Corbyn's manifesto. Some of the Labor Party's supporters in the north of Britain are leaving the party because of dissatisfaction with Labor's leadership.