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With the rushed approach adopted by the Trump administration not enough consideration was given to winning support in the House from 25 conservatives in the Freedom Caucus. Without their support the bill cannot be passed in the House of Representatives. The fight also includes one over what are essential health benefits including whether  maternity care would be included. As a result some moderate Republicans are also expressing opposition on the grounds that less people will be covered and fewer benefits will be provided under the Republican House plan called AHCA. President Trump has not involved himself in the details, and the bill comes very early in the first 100 days, leading to the perception that health care has become a partisan conflict without really grappling with the problems of high cost of health care and creating a solution that all can support. Democrats are seen as having made the same error early in Obama administration's first term. President Trump sees this as a much needed win with a drop in his approval ratings, making this even less of an effort to come out with a good plan.  ...

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The crisis of late 2008 and early 2009 in the global economy saw huge stimulus programs, resposible economic management, and rapid recovery by the end of 2009 in developing countries. China put in place a large stimulus program, and in most developing countries, India, Vietnam, Brazil and other countries efforts were made to strengthen the safety net for the poor and to introduce stimulus for creating jobs. India and Indonesis saw the return of ruling party governments and in Brazil Lula da Silva had favorability ratings above 60%. So contrary to earlier fears in late 2008 their was both asense of political stability and asense of confidence in the developing countries. Capital is flowing into these countries and the IIF says that net private capital inflows to developing countries will double in 2010 to $672 billion. Russia which saw capital outflows of $50 billion in the first 9 months saw $20 billon of capital inflows in the fourth quarter of 2009. Half of the 140 million laborers working in Chinese cities returned home in early 2009, a fifth stayed there and another fifth counld not find work when they returned to the cities. But as the stimulus in China kicked in, and infrastructure development surged, (see link to the rail infrastructure spending) by the middle of 2009 jobless ness among rural migrant workers went down to less than 3%. This shows in the Pew Global Attitudes Project wth more than 40% of respondents in India, China and Indonesia saying that they were satisfied with their lives, in China this was 87%. In France, Japan and Britain the share is below 30%. In America 49% of those in the Pew pollingfelt that America should mind its own business internationally, 30 points higher than in 1964. When asked "Are you better off in free markets?" the respondents share fell in 2009 in Germany by 4 points, in Spain by 10 points. Shares rose in India and China, and stayed flat in Brazil and Turkey, so there is no backlash against free markets in developing countries....

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With so much coverage of other aspects of China,  to really understand China and Xi Jinping one has to understand the rural urban situation in China. Xi's long experience as a teenager in the cultural revolution of Mao was in rural areas, the 8 years he spent there till the age of 22, as this report by James Areddy with help of Yijun, Cheng and Qi aptly shows. It traces the shift and mass migration to cities starting with Deng's modernization drive in 1979. This shift of labor to city and town factories as the U.S. and Europe shifted factories and production to China is the story of our times. How it has both helped and hurt China and how it has become the dominant issue of our times, and a lesson for India in the middle of its own modernization and shift of labor to cities. It has helped China modernize with the shift during 1979 to 2016 and run into a road block with president Trump leading a movement in the U.S. of people most hurt by the outsourcing of factories and production to China. It was not meant to be this way. Yet the shift also led to ripping up the fabric of communities and towns with loss of factories across America over three decades. Because China is a large country the impact was huge decade after decade, leading to a backlash against lost jobs in the U.S. and in Europe.  Xi Jinping has romantic view of rural China as he spent 7 years in Shanxi province rural areas during the cultural revolution under Mao. During this period he toiled as part of farm labor alongside villagers which allowed him to get to know villagers and farmers in the countryside well, and formed his view of the world around him. As it is described in a description of the man in Chinese sources- "He arrived at the village as a slightly lost teenager and left as a 22 year old man determined to do something for the people."  China's system separated migrants from city dwellers not  giving same rights to better education, to schools and housing, and official documents separating the two, city dwellers and migrant populations from rural areas. As a result as China modernized and population shifted -shown here in excellent graphic charts over four decades- in 1979 from about 80% in rural areas and 20% in urban the shift goes to 50-50 by 2001. Today it is 40-60 with 60% in rural areas but a population of 40% suffering from severe inequalities and  low incomes. So that GDP per capita of $10,000 for China is deceiving. The real incomes in average disposable income is about $4300 in urban and $1700 in rural area, according to National Bureau of Statistics. High school education is hard enough to get in rural areas, medical care is very basic and the $1700 would hardly get a room in low income housing in a large town in China, says premier Li Keqiang. Keqiang did his masters thesis on urbanization and has studied this shift from his college days. Just as in Gandhi's India, Mao's China is the story of the villages, with 128,000 villages for 600 million people in Mr. Xi Jinping's anti-poverty drive. Hong Kong other issues have to be understood in the context of these concerns of China's leadership today- the sense that strong central leadership alone can keep the country together and bring a decent life to the people in the villages and in the countryside outside the cities.  Modernization of cities still set in the context of China's vast rural population and essential to its full uplift and progress. Xi has allocated $80 billion each year to bring roads, schools, medical facilities, and other amenities including electricity and modern heating. The idea now is to shift people back to the villages, find opportunities for jobs and livelihoods in farming, tourism with guesthouse facilities, and other occupations in the villages. The villages are being turned into attractive places to live one by one in this party drive and providing new enthusiasm and support for the party's efforts. India can learn from this experience in China. The western nations of the U.S. and Europe can no longer and will no longer undertake the wholesale shift of factories with loss of jobs to China or India to offer the prospect of bringing these countries to the kind of urbanization and overall prosperity of small nations like Japan and South Korea, which are a tiny fraction of the population of China and India+ Pakistan + Bangladesh. As a result China is changing strategy now with a return to some aspects of the informal economy in Chengdu with street peddlers and tiny retail, and return of migrants back to better built and improved villages in the countryside. A better life than in cities is possible this view says for people from these rural areas, if the rural areas are given modern facilities and construction and resources are allocated, job creation locally tackled. The villages can offer better air quality, better quality of life where villagers who earlier migrated to cities with ownership of land, when they are modernized with better roads and have better facilities for education, housing and healthcare, better amenities. The new approach is to strike a good balance for urbanization, by modernizing and investing in villages and small towns, so that cities can cope and overall life can be better than with mass migration and wholesale urbanization. It is also a balance that works well for the U.S. and Europe which can redirect manufacturing to their home regions as part of a better distributed and balanced supply chain than the one that was unwittingly built over the last three decades.    ...

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Most American large companies support president Biden's decision to mandate vaccinations for all employers with more than 100 employees. Smaller business also supports the decision as it makes this decision for them. The US Business Roundtable of the largest US companies issued a statement saying it "welcomes the Biden Administration's continued vigilance in the fight against Covid." It went on to applaud the decision of some companies to implement a vaccine mandate before the president's decision. Companies would like to see a rapid ramp up in testing capacity as they see testing capacity levels not the vaccine mandate as the real problem today with the surge in Delta variant. These companies such as Target, Nike, and retailers see testing capacity as "stressed" and say "testing capacity must be scaled immensely to meet the new requirements." Labor unions clearly support president Biden's decision including teachers associations, and the AFL-CIO. Some companies including Delta Airlines are imposed health surcharges for unvaccinated employees, and United Airlines has brought in its own vaccine mandate. The president's vaccine mandate has broad and deep support of the American people and business, according to this WSJ report, with recognition of the huge risks posed by the transmission rates of the Delta variant in the surge of coronavirus in September 2021. However companies say the Biden Administration has to scale up testing capacity quickly to make it work. ...

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The New York Times reports from the comments of current and former members of the Chase Chief Investment Office (CIO), that risk officers at Chase were ignored when they raised issues about the complex trades made by trader Iksil. Iksil's trades had the support of his manager Mr. Macris, and Ms. Drew who was in charge of CIO. The comments also indicate that at one point Mr. Macris brought in a Risk Officer with whom he had worked closely for many years. Risk Officers are supposed to be independent and their concerns seriously heard, with the authority to halt trades that pose excessive risks. Which made this kind of cozy behaviour in the CIO trading offices in London cause for alarm. These reports also say Mr. Braunstein, the new CFO at JP Morgan Chase, did not strengthen controls after he assumed office in 2010. Bank officials disputed this. The New York offices did not fully grasp the complex trades being made in the CIO London offices, and upper management let the CIO operate pretty much on its own, especially with CEO Jamie Dimon's confidence in Ms. Drew's management of the CIO. This led to another gap in the process of risk management. Dimon had other priorities and distractions, from problem mortgages coming with the acquisition of Washington Mutual, pushing back aginst financial regulation after the 2008 crisis, stress tests and others. At the same time the U.S. Federal Reserve, regulators, and Treasury's coordinated effort to merge failing banks with other larger banks- because of the lack of the process of unwinding failed banks provided later under Dodd-Frank legislation- created mega financial banks. Unlike what the U.S. under Treasury Secretary Rubin pushed for in the case of S. Korea during a banking crisis in 1997, Treasury under Geithner and Fed officials did not push for unwinding of failed financial institutions such as Countrywide and Washington Mutual in 2008-2009 Chase's own portfolio of assets under the CIO, increased by an astounding amount from $76 billion in 2007 to $356 billion in 2011. Even if Ms Drew had managed CIO well before, managing a portfolio of this size is most likely to have presented a whole set of new challenges and problems for which the CIO office was not prepared. Similiar concerns were raised by other Fed officials such as Fed governors, Hoenig and Fisher, who raised the issue that such mega-banks posed unacceptable risks and were too big to manage. Pressures to increase investing profits, growing complacency, relaxing risk management controls, led to the situation where a single trader Mr. Iksil, who had only joined the bank in 2007 according to other reports, could create large losses. This follows a situation at UBSin 2011, where a novice trader made bets that resulted in large losses....

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Feldstein, adviser to the Romney campaign, refutes the assertion based on computer models that the Romney Tax Plan of a 20% across the board cut in taxes cannot be paid for by limiting the deductions of high income tax earners. His own analysis based on IRS data, shows taxpayers with adjusted gross incomes of over $100,000 made itemized deductions of $636 billion in 2009. By taxing these deductions at a 30% marginal rate, additional revenue of $191 billion can be raised to pay for the Romney Tax Plan's static revenue loss of $181 billion. A smaller revenue loss of $148 billion is predicted based on increased incomes and taxes from the behavioural effects of lower taxes on earners. He says this was the thinking behind the Reagan tax cuts of 1986 and the Simpson-Bowles commission plan that would generate economic growth by reforming the tax system's distortions.

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Average wage gains for rural areas about 5% between 2001 and 2003, and a loss of 2.5% in wages for the poorest 10% of the people in China are shown in information from the World Bank. This will be of concern to Chinese government as it moves forward with current policy.

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Morgenson cites Paul Diggle, property economist at Capital Economics in London, about why the $26 billion mortgage settlement between the state attorneys general, the U.S. government and the large U.S. banks is unlikely to make much difference to the foreclosure problems in the housing market. The agreement provides for reducing principal by $17 billion over 3 years for homeowners under water. Diggle points out that $17 billion is a drop compared to what is needed, because 11 million homeowners are now under water on their loans to the amount of $700 billion. The $17 billion is a mere 2.4% of the negative equity of $700 billion.

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Peter Bernstein's says it is vital to address the household sector that is the root of the problem. And the only way to do this effectively is to change the terms of the mortgages themselves and stop the flow of foreclosures, with the government taking on some of the losses from these changes in the mortgage terms. First, he says, thats where the crisis has originated. Second, in the previous recessions the household sector was not the problem, in this one it is the problem. Without returning it to better health, America cannot reverse the devastating course of this recession. Households are the primary customers of American business, and the wave of foreclosures, dropping house prices and job losses, destroy the optimism and morale of millions of Amrericans. "The risk here is not just humanitarian. Indeed the risk is also the preservation of the social structure of democracy and the future progress of America, " says Bernstein. Essentially Bernstein is saying that President Obama should put campaign promises for health care reform, and other agenda after addressing this issue. Obama has extended unemployment insurance as afirst step, he has responded to Detroit's auto industry needs, and has set up the stimulus package. But in the household sector and on mortgages the response has ben weak, thus letting this problem grow and leaving the roots of the crisis unattended. "To intervene promptly, directly and powerfully to counter the home price debacle" has not happened. Something that the New York Times has repeatedly stated in its editorials, including one last week. And without this hope and optimism is not likely to be built on firm ground. A sudden recovery in the stock markets, as in the 2nd quarter 2009, cannot substitute. ...

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The UN Refugee Agency says 7.6 million Syrians were displaced and refugees in their own country, 3.6 million Syrians are in other countries as refugees. Worldwide it says about 60 million are refugees. About half of the refugees are children. Of this about 14 million people were displaced in 2014, with 11 million of this displaced in their own country. Fighting in Iraq, Syria and Libya, appear to be the main cause of displacement in 2014. Never before in the agency's 50 year history are there so many displaced people in their own countries.

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Leonhardt points out that public workers receive lower salaries and higher benefits than private workers. They are being paid in the wrong ways. For example with health insurance coverage that require little or no co-payment, which lead to overuse of healthcare services that don't necessarily improve health. Politicians and unions appear to have accepted this practice over the years. Public sector unions have blocked efforts to improve efficiency and find better ways of doing things from the classroom to work in government offices. Reforms in states such as Indiana have produced some results. But even these improvements do not address the magnitude of the problems facing the U.S. which stem from the public's desire to have it all- from large defense spending, public services, low taxes and no changes to Social Security and Medicare. Polls show Americans want to reduce deficit spending, but the same polls show Americans unwilling to make some difficult choices.

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The Romney story says this editorial is one of a turnaround- of a kind patiently nurtured from his days turning around businesses as a management consultant. This one was different and probably required a lot of soul searching and courage to take up new positions. As a technocrat, says the Journal, Romney would have been more comfortable with a room full of IQ's going over spreadsheets of numbers. He tried to do this by not taking up specific positions till the need to convince voters, first in the GOP base and then centrists and independents after the convention, forced Romney to make the reassessment and turnaround he needed to make. In November 2011 he accepted the Ryan position that Medicare needed changes, and in Feb 2012 he took up the case for lower tax rates and cutting deductions. In October 2012 came the first debate, with it Romney abandoned his reluctance to put forward a plan for the economic recovery and put forward his five point plan. That was the turning point in the campaign but all the other steps including the selection of Ryan, a Congressman from a working class district in Wisconsin, agianst the advice of advisors, were leading up to this turnaround. This was likely the most difficult of turnarounds, even searing in its soul searching as Romney scribbled "Dad" on paper at the lectern before the first debate- turning back to beginnings he had doubted for so long....

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Mitt Romney describes his experiences with different companies he worked with at Bain Capital and how he would use that experience in his job as President. One approach he emphasizes is proactive problem solving and tackling problems early.

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Jerry Brown Attorney General of California and Lisa Madigan Attorney General of Illinois led the negotiations on behalf of the states of California, Illinois, Michigan, Iowa, Ohio, Washington, Arizona, Texas, Florida and North Carolina, Connecticut, against predatory lending by Countrywide and obtained a settlement of $8.4 billion for homeowners. Shows that states efforts can be effective where the federal government failed. Brown expects loan modifications worth $3.4 billion in California. Congress has proposed various programs but none made it through the legilative process, so this is the largest most comprehensive mandatory loan workout program that exists. The program will be mandatory and will be monitored by state officials. Bank of America owns Countrywide which it acquired and it says that it had anticipated and made allowance for this kind of settlement. Borrowers whose first payment was due between Jan1, 2004 and Dec 31, 2007 can participate. The loan balance must be at least 75% of the current value of the home and the borrower must be able to make the adjusted monthly payments. It will focus on borrrowers who were placed int he riskiest loans because of Countrywide's misleading and predatory lending practices. Under the program Countrywide will reduce laon balances in some and cut interest rates in others. Rates could decline to 2.5% depending on borrowers ability to pay and remain at that level 5 years. Help is also provided for those facing foreclosure or are 4 months behind in their payments and homeowners already foreclosed....

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The figures are startling, alarming dangerous whatever you call it. How many homeowners are under water or owe more on their mortgage than their house is worth today in today's depressed market? And how many more will be under water in tomorrow's even more depressed market as unemployment gets worse in 2009, and much worse after that in 2010. Moody's Economy.com's chief econmist mark Zandl has worked out some figures. And he says one in 6 mortgages in America today are under water, that is 16% of 7.5 million households that own homes they live in, or roughly 12 million households. To give some idea of how quickly this is deteriorating while Congress, the Administration and the general public could not reach any agreement or consensus about assisting homeowners avoid foreclosure in steps that cover all homeowners across the USA. The comparable figures were roughly 4% under water in 2006 and 6% in 2007. Thats a huge jump from 6% to 16% and was not expected to be such a steep jump in 2008. And it may be accelerating for 2009. And of the homeowners who took on a mortgage in the last 5 years the figures are startling, 29% are under water according to estimate by real estate Web site Zillow.com, that is one in 3 almost. Which is why absence of government help on a comprehensive scale covering the whole country and all homeowners facing foreclosure remains the one huge gap in the rescue package passed by Congress for $700 billion at Sept end 2008. Why is it dangerous? Because it accelerates the downturn in the economy and exacerbates the problem of toxic mortgage assets on the books of overleveraged banks, as dropping housing prices from higher foreclosures depresses the value of those assets even further. And this creates a vicious circle of lower consumption spending followed by lower production, higher unemployment and leading to lower consumption spending in a repeat cycle leading to higher foreclosures as a consequence of higher unemployment....

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Anthony Faiola provides this exceptional look at the thinking of Chancellor Merkel and German experts, about the refugees creating more opportunities than risks for Germany. Germany is an aging society, with low birth rates. How to reverse this, so that there will be more young workers to meet future needs long term ten or twenty years from now, is a problem facing Japan and Germany. Germany is also fortunate with the timing, with Germany's unemployment rate at a low of 6.2%, and years of growth ahead from a eurozone recovery. A fortunate circumstance in the nature of refugees from Syria, is that many of them are young, well educated, skilled workers, doctors, engineers and architects, from a relatively moderate Arab country. This is a better immigrant pool than the one Germany took in from Turkey in early postwar years, in terms of education, youthfulness and skills, and one in which the lessons learned from that pool's inadequate integration could be applied here. This is why Germany is not only willing to take in 800,000, but German leaders are saying they could take in 500,000 a year for several years. Just as Germany has taken a long term view, and has the strength to execute it in its shift to renewable energy, Germany's centre right Christian Democrats and centre left Social Democrats in the coalition government see the issue long term around which they can bring a cohesive understanding and consensus in their country. Merkel addressing parliament said on September 9, 2015- "The refugees need help to learn German, and they should find a job quickly. Many of them will become new citizens of our country. If we do it well, this will bring more opportunities than risks." The decision to shift to renewable required a whole new mindset and leadership, in the same way German leaders are articulating the position based on a careful understanding of the situation and Germany's long term interests in reversing Germany's population decline and lower working age people. There are about 3 million Turkish people in the country, adding about 1.8 million Syrian and other refugees would still bring the percentage of people of foreign origin to less than 6% of the 81 million population, just a little bit less Christian and just a little bit less German in origin, which is in keeping with changes in a globalized world and no different than its neigbor France. What looked like a problem, if handled and managed well could be an opportunity knocking at Germany's door. Merkel's genuine convictions about universal civil rights make the "wilkommen refugees" very real in other ways....