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Swiss dairy farmers cutting cheese production by 5-10% to tackle temporary US tariff rate of 39%.  Gruyere and Emmentaler cheese to US make up 13% of Swiss cheese exports. Swiss dairy farmers are looking for markets in Asia and waiting for trade negotiations to bring tariffs down so that they can bounce back. The cow is sacred in Swiss Alpine country because of its role in cheese and mil chocolate production for overseas markets. Switzerland's cheese exports are $830 million in 2024 compared to about $7 billion for Germany, $6 billion for Netherlands, $5 billion for Italy and $4 billion for France, and $2.5 billion for the US. Overall Switzerland is a small exporter for a country the size of Virginia. Much of the extra milk production from a bumper harvest in 2025 can be converted into baby milk powder  and exported to China and India. In trade negotiations the Swiss became complacent even condescending and took the US market for granted. This will now change as the Swiss now have time for some soul searching on how best to negotiate a deal that respects the interests of both nations. ...

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Something profound is taking place in Belfast, Northern Ireland. Colonial attitudes of the British for centuries are making way for a new generationof Protestants and Catholics who are taking interest in the Irish language and the feeling of being both Irish and British, seeing all that was Irish from the early period of Christianity many centuries ago. Irish cosigns with English and classes/schools in Irish in Belfast ,Northern Ireland, as Unionist areas take up Irish along with the British identity. The Washington Post provides this wonderful look at this ancient language. In Irish Belfast is "Beal Fierste" meaning mouth of the Sandy Ford. Maidin mhaith is "good morning" and one can hear short audio practice of Irish in this report. The government is actively promoting Irish and buses show Irish as they make their way from East Belfast to West Belfast. A sense of equality is in the air and Irish is now spoken on the streets of Belfast. Protestant parents are signing up their children jn Irish language preschools and 35 primary schools are in Irish in Belfast. Such is the change happening to Ireland these days. ...

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Jeff Madrick asks what kind of Wall Street and banking industry would best serve the American people.

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This inflation is different from anything that happened before as it is driven by both demand and supply side situation. Seeing it as only demand side and acting on that would only damage the economy, says Greg Ip in the WSJ. On supply chain shortages there is little the government or the central bank can do to fix this in the short term. This is also why the Families and Workers Plan and Infrastructure plan of president Biden with about $2 trillion dollars in spending is not expected to cause much impact on inflation. The Fed is carefully looking at the situation because of the unique nature of the problem in 2021 to avoid any missteps that hurt the US economy and US growth for the coming decade, on which so much of the hope of America and the world rests.

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India's foreign exchange reserves reached an all time high of $545 billion in October 2022. By December this had dropped to $561 billion because of the central bank RBI's effort to maintain the value of the Indian currency in relation to the US dollar. This is at Rs 81 to the the dollar in Dec 2022. India' needs healthy foreign exchange reserves to finance imports for its industrialization and investment efforts to modernize the country. Inflation is also a priority to keep the cost of living at levels that provide affordability. This is at about 5% in Dec. 2022. Finance minister Sitharaman cited this as key achievements. Including large foreign investment inflows as part of changing the supply chain to include India as a manufacturing hub for the west. This sets the stage for long term growth.

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Pipelines to Corpus Christi have reached capacity as US energy production reaches record levels says this report in WSJ. In the first half of 2023 2 million barrels a day passed through this pipeline. About half of the 4.1 million barrels a day the US shipped abroad were loaded onto tankers on this part of the Texas coastline. This oil helped Europe during the shortages after the closing of access to Russian oil supplies. Because Corpus Christi has terminals that make it cheaper to ship oil out it has become a dominant hub in the US for shipments overseas. It is the closest deepwater port to the Permian basin in West Texas and New Mexico. Corpus Christ is also transitioning to a future where hydrogen is produced for energy by applying for $8 billion from president Biden's renewable energy infrastructure package.

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Aryna Sabalenka describes her experience with the death of her father and going though it by keeping on playing tennis, and then with the loss of aclose friend finding that this no longer worked. An injury gave her time to pause to take care of her mental health. This has helped her regain the confidence in her game. This situation is something we all face keep going through a emotional crisis with the loss of a parent or family member, then thinking that the best way is to continue with whatever we are doing. Then something else happens, a health crisis or more stuff to tackle, and this time it makes sense to pause to give oneself time to recover. This is important to come back with the right frame of mind, the feeling of health and wellbeing essential for the next step. 

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Five biking and hiking Trails that take you to- Vermont across Lake Champlain on the 3 mile Colchester Causeway that runs across the lake.

Colorado between Aspen and Glenwood Springs for 18 miles that takes you around Dillon Reservoir.

Austin, Texas right near the city on the Butler Hike and Bike Trail to Northshore Overlook. The long narrow reservoir is a dammed up section of the Colorado River.

Sacramento, California, go across the Sacramento River on the Sundial Bridge, all the way to Redding. Views of Trinity Alps to the west.

Around Seattle, take the Olympic Discovery Trail that stretches along the coast, and coastal wetland, fir tree forests, for 135 miles from Port Angeles. Near a US coast Guard Base past Edith Hook for a view of the Olympic Mountains.

 

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The Indian pharmaceutical industry is expected to grow by 13% to $24 billion in 2010. R&D is a special focus, as new drugs can be developed at much lower cost in India. Mr. Piramal, for instance, kept the R&D operation of Piramal when he sold the rest of the company to Abbott Labs of the USA. The Piramal lab in Mumbai has 300 researchers and scientists, and Mr Piramal says he can develop new drugs at a tenth of the $1.5- $2 billon cost it takes for this in the USA and Europe.

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On the negative side Japan has public debt that is about twice the size if its $5 trillion economy. In the USA government debt is up to 98% of GDP.On the positive side only 10% of it is owed to foreigners compared to 46% of it for the USA. Japan is also rich in personal savings and assets. Over half of government bonds are held by the public sector and the rest are with long term investors like banks and pension funds and insurance companies. So any sudden sell off of bonds is very unlikely.

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Thoughtful opinion by experts that the rate cut or a series of rate cuts may just not do it and the economic growth will slow to 1.5% or nearer that number next year. The housing declines, lower consumer spending, and the credit crunch won't disappear with the rate cuts. The effects on the dollar are another factor. See the article on how ewe may be entering a new period in the global economy where the US slows and the rest of the world pushes ahead in the wsj Sept 20, 2007.

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This chart shows sharply divergent earnings trends. Looking at percent changes from a year ago the Bureau of Economic Anlaysis numbers show that fourth quarter earnings domestic profits were down 6.5% while earnings from the rest of the world jumped 42.8% the largest increase in 27 years. How strongly will these export markets hold up as we get to 2009 and there is a global impact of the recession that starts in the USA. And lower earnings in US markets will mean lower capital spending in the US.

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Losses on aTishman/BlackRock property in New York , the 11,000apartment, 56 building, Bedford Stuyvesant property built by MetLife for veterans of World War II, is in danger of default. Losses would approach $500 million for Calpers, $575 million for Singapore's GIC, $250 million for Florida State Board, and $70 million ofr the Church of England. The property was purchased in the hope of using easing rent control laws to increase rents but tenants successfully blocked the rent increases in court.

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By shifting production of the Santa Fe SUV model to Kia's West Point, Georgia, plant- which makes the Kia Sorrento- Hyundai plans to free up 100,000 units capacity at it newly opened Montgomery, Alabama, plant. This freed up capacity will be used to meet increasing demand for Hyundai's Sonata sedans. Hyundai owns 34% of Kia Motors. The West Point plant was built to produce 300,000 units and uses the same components for the Santa Fe that it uses for the Sorrento.

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The last days spent at a West Texas ranch by Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia in Feb. 2016.

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The Berlin conference in 2020 on Libya is an effort taken seriously by chancellor Merkel and French president Macron, supported by president Trump, for an "inner-Libyan reconciliation process" with "a sovereign Libya" that would prevent another larger large scale emigration to Europe from North Africa. On one side is a UN backed government of Mr. Fayez Sarraj, that controls Tripoli and the west and on the other a group of Militias under Mr. Haftar that controls the south and east.  Various foreign powers are fueling the conflict and the goal is have them disengage and drop support for their faction- Turkey for the Tripoli government and the Saudis and UAE, with Egypt, Russia supporting the rival government. All hope to gain influence, for what that means, at the risk of large scale refugees and further destruction, and dislocation of European unity through large scale emigration to Europe. It is almost like the Thirty Years War when Sweden, Austria, and the French fought proxy wars in Europe in other countries mainly in German states and central Europe. That period? - 1618-1648, losses of 8 million dead from wars, famine and plague, with loss of 20% of the German population. What started as Catholic- Protestant ended up with Austrian Hapsburg- French rivalry wars, today local religious factions conflict with secular factions ending with rival power conflict.  The foreign policy expert for Merkel Mr. Hardt says "it is key to the further stabilization of North and West Africa. If we succeed in leading Libya into a peaceful future, it would be a milestone for the entire region." ...

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WSJ Quiz on data centers- test your knowledge. Does China have the most data centers? No the US with 4000, followed by Britain with 515 and Germany with 500 showing that China is not in the AI craze the way the US is even though the idea of the US falling behind in AI is used to get trillions of dollars in AI funding. This only means infrastructure that is dilapidated and broken in the US will not be replaced, and that the US plan to reindustrialize to get jobs will lack funding as dollars are diverted from these essential and vital needs to AI. Eventually Asian countries with new infrastructure will find ways to get that US technology without having to pay for it. The American public will be paying for this AI craze. We at Lyrarc.com checked how many data centers China has built? The number is 250 data centers are operational and note this in the MIT Technology Review it says 80% of these data centers are not being used, there is 80% overcapacity in China. Because China's AI such as Deep Seek is designed so that it uses less computing power. What this means is that only the US will put over 3 times the combined data centers put in by China, UK and Germany for AI and US will put in 16 times the data centers China has put in. As China only needs or is using 20% of its 250 operational data centers or 50 data centers the US is putting in 80 times the data center capacity China is using in 2026. Why 80 times? Because China has a Plan and it can manage the supply to the need or demand. In the US each company is trying to put so many in so it can get the leadership position in the market. For example Amazon puts in $200 billion instead of the $100 billion it can afford simply to be in the leadership ranks. There is much wasteful spending in the US market system than China's coordinated effort in a new technology even though ideologues like to say the US system is superior, and a plan by the state is frowned upon in the US, costing the US dearly when it lost its entire manufacturing base to China while economists said everything was OK. Even the WSJ Quiz fails to ask the question we asked about China and how many data centers China has actually made operational, how much is overcapacity- 250 datacenters and 80% overcapacity. Showing how little the public knows and even WSJ has looked into, giving a few companies such as Google, Amazon, Apple, Microsoft and others the freedom to spend in a reckless way so that future infrastructure investments and reindustrialization investments will be crowded out in the US economy. And economists as usual will say its OK. ...

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Internal Bank of England data showing Britain inside European Union 6-8% higher GDP and 75 billion pounds of higher exports of goods in 2025. This is the only objective assessment one can accept in judging what would be best for British workers and their families.  Also lost on the 2014 -2016 period that led to referendum on Brexit in 2016 just three years later is that it came after the 2009-2011 period for recovery from the financial crisis, the first entry of Conservatives and sharp austerity cuts in public spending by 2012, and the period of Covid that followed just 3 years after 2016 in 2019. The process of improving productivity and increasing competitiveness that could have happened, is a cost Britain suffered from Brexit becoming topic No.1, skewing priorities from reindustrializing to debate on a non priority item Brexit- with a lost decade as a result in addition to the 8% of GDP and 75 billion pounds that could add to these numbers. In this way UK lost about 10% of its GDP and 100 billion pounds of exports that without the that  additional public investment  did not happen from 2009 financial crisis, from Brexit divisiveness, followed by Covid. The result is 1.5% growth in GDP in UK compared to closer to 3% in the US. The lower growth alone can mean additional losses in exports in 2025 than are seen in numbers, and additional losses in GDP. This is the economic weakness  that hangs over Britain as it tries out a new leader in 2026. Only a bold action plan under a bold leader can reverse this decline. As shown elsewhere on these pages in Lyrarc, this is why a new leader needs to articulate a bold and well thought out plan to execute with the support of the British people. Andy Burnham has the potential to make this happen starting in 2026 over the next 5-7 years. He has to build on the work he did in the Greater Manchester region, and like Modi in India applying the lessons learned in his home state of Gujarat, step by step, year by year, build the industrial and economic capacity of Britain by 2035. It is not a feat for the timid, struggles will abound, yet it can be done with one step following the previous step in a continuous stride. In fact Burnham can now work with India to add about 1% of GDP because of the close trading relationship and centuries long synergies with India to get closer to 3% growth in GDP per year. At that point public spending and investment would rise to propel further growth. It is in the interest of every sector in Britain to pull together, the same in India, to lift these two main countries of the Commonwealth by the bootstraps. ...

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Hubbard and Erdbrink report on U.S. president Trump's visit to Saudi Arabia to begin a new chapter in relations with the Gulf nations and the Saudis. Under president Obama the U.S. distanced itself from the Saudis and the Gulf nations, preferring to pursue a policy of closer relations with Iran and signing the Iran nuclear deal. This included a policy of staying out of Syria to the point of turning down a decision to deploy U.S. airpower to maintain no-fly zones to protect refugees. Syrian government forces fighting rebels were supported by Iran. The new policy is dictated by the new conditions in the Middle East. The U.S. has sought since the presidency of Reagan to balance the power relations in the region. With the nuclear deal signed and Iran respecting the deal according to independent reports, the U.S. allied with Iran in the battle against Islamic State in Iraq,  a shift was needed to balance the support provided to Iran by Russia which worsened the refugee crisis in Syria. The Republican party and Mr. Trump were critical of the Obama Iran policy during the nuclear deal negotiations. The safety of Israel is also a factor as non-state actors were supported by Iran threatening Israeli security. For these reasons the shift is an effort to rebalance the relations in the region. The arms deal in its size and president Trump's statement that Iran had "fueled the fires of sectarian conflict and terror," can be seen as this rebalancing. A business aspect of the large arms deal is that it will promote job growth in the defense industry in the U.S.. Other countries including Germany have seen growth in their defense industry. This is not the best way forward for the Middle East, yet it is a way the U.S. and nations in the region are adjusting to realities- the collapse of the Arab Spring from within and without the help from outside, the sectarian conflict arising from the Shiite pushback from Iran following the Baathist and Sunni control of Iraq which collapsed with the U.S.invasion, where the majority of people are Shiite yet with a strong Sunni presence. Elections brought Shiites in power, leading to a Sunni response in the form of Islami State caliphate move into Mosul, Iraq's second largest city after Baghdad. A decade of conflict and the efforts by the Bush administration ended in failure and sectarian conflict, resulting in the U.S. policy of rebalancing in favor of Iran to negotiate the nuclear deal. In this sense the arms deal does not solve anything. A similar rebalancing under Reagan by arming one side, followed by arming the other, led to involvement with ground forces under president Bush. It only leaves the region poor after years of sanctions against Iran to the point where a NYT reporter was not sure whether it was safe to fly from Tehran to Mashad with Iran Air because of the lack of spare parts for the airline. War torn, with millions of refugees in Syria and Iraq, the region remains broken in many ways, waiting for a sensible non sectarian view to prevail in the interest of the people in the region. The election of Rouhani in Iran by 57% of the vote is only a sign that young people in the region given a chance would opt for a different course in future. The rest of Asia has moved forward and shows a path that can be followed. ...

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Alexis Tsipras, leader of Syriza, Greece's second largest party, is interviewed by WSJ's Bret Stephens. Tsipras describes the problems inside Greece. He describes the bribery in healthcare, tax evasion, burden of taxes on the middle class and honest citizens, a large and inefficient bureaucracy. In its current state Greece would build up debt and deficits all over again if the debts were forgiven tomorrow, says Tsipras. He is for Greece remaining in the eurozone. Tsipras understands the problems Germans have with putting money into Greece with the current state of economic management and lack of conscience of its elite, and why they see this as not fair. He suggests as a model for solving the Greece debt crisis, the London Conference of 1953 forgiving half of Germany's debts and putting the rest on a 30 year scheduled repayment. This would have to come with results in cutting bureaucracy, reducing corruption, and efficient tax collection for Greece democracy to work.

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According to a senior defense industry official Defense Secretary Robert Gates worries that counterinsurgency may not work in Afghanistan. According to the official even 40,000 troops would not give enough troop on the ground to protect the Afghns if the north and west continue to deteriorate. Gates is concerned about sending large amounts of additional US troops to Afghnistan. This is acountry with people very sensitive to occupying powers. A veteran of the soviet intervention there says they have an allergy to foreigners and attributes the soviet defeat to this. See the links in Intelilinks He is aware of the the dangers of this, if the expanded military footprint is seen as that of an occupying power especially when the government in Kabul is hugely unpopular, then this would galvanize new armed opposition to the US and draw US forces and NATO forces into aguerilla war of the type the soviet union faced there. It may do much worse if it galvanizes opposition in side Pakistan. The question Obama is focussing on is whether there is athreat to the US homeland security if other options than expanding troop strength are explored....

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This WSJ report shows the Kimmich goal that won the game for Bayern Munich against Dortmund. Three weeks of practice have improved the goal scoring for many Bundesliga teams. Goals scored as a percentage of opportunities has gone up from 15% to 19% for Bayern, and from 19% to 26% for Dortmund. Dortmund's coach says they made the best of it during three weeks of practice starting in April when within social distancing guidelines the Bundesliga began practice. Lots of technical work, work in front of goal, and stuff they never get to practice. Pandemic practices created so much more time for shooting. The goal that Kimmich made was one that he had done in practice. 

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Intense devotion to a few high priority tasks gets better results and is a way to work smarter, says Hansen in WSJ. Research shows high achievement comes from being more focused in what you do by selecting the tasks that are most critical and concentrating the most attention on these tasks to get it right. Merely working long hours no matter how talented you are is not the best way to get things done. Having clutter actually hurts a presentation and one slide can get more accomplished because it is the critical one to present. 

Getting things done means often doing less, being selective, and instead of longer hours simplifying to get what really matters most done.

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Fausset of the NYT looks at a rust belt city in the U.S. midwest that has suffered as U.S. manufacturing declined. Much of the decline happened in the 1980's in the steel industry in competition with Japanese imports. North of town there is a GM plant that makes the Chevy Cruze. The unemployment rate of 17% in 2010 has dropped to 7.6%. Fausset describes the life of a retired steel worker on state pension who works in law enforcement. He is Joe Marshall Jr. from the song by Bruce Springsteen about a steel worker who the singer read about in a book. Youngstown appears to be divided by people who support Trump and Clinton.

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The strange story of port authorites behaviour in Beirut for an incoming ship from Georgia on the Black Sea loaded with ammonium nitrate explosive materials- keeping the ship in port because it lacked the proper papers and because it was not fit to sail. If allowed to leave the ship would probably not caused an explosion in a congested port area. The mystery of the behaviour of port authorites extends to the next step where the port authorites actually unloaded the ship's explosives material to a port hangar warehousing area when there was no need to do so or no need to keep the ship in Beirut. waters as its actual destination was in Mozambique in the west coast of Africa.