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The WSJ's Kimberley Strassel says a Republican winning the White House in 2016 depends on how well the party appeals to white working class voters and the struggling middle class living from paycheck to paycheck. She says Speaker Paul Ryan is taking the right step in coming up with the idea of the Kemp Forum on Expanding Opportunity event in January 2016. Presidential candidates attending the forum are Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, Chris Christie, John Kasich. Not attending are Ted Cruz and Donald Trump who are getting support from voters who are discouraged by establishment policies. Strassel says upward mobility for the midddle and working class is emerging as the No. 1 issue in the election, especially with Hillary Clinton leading the Democrats.

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Polls just days before the French presidential election show independent candidate Macron getting about 60% of the 18-24 year age group. There is discontent in this age group because of high unemployment. The unemployment rate is 24% for people below age 25, higher than 18% before the financial crisis of 2008, compared to 7% in Germany for this age group. For people 25 to 29 years it is 14%. This is why Marie Le Pen has appeal in economically struggling northern towns. Yet most French people are finding it difficult to take on an agenda as radical as Le Pen's that takes France out of the eurozone. In the final debate just 24 hours before the vote Le Pen entered into a discussion about leaving the eurozone but showed she had no clear idea of what this would mean for France. She described Brexit as an example and Macron shot back that Britain was never in the eurozone to begin with, and it appeared that Le Pen was just hoping that it would all work out, without a clear grasp of the facts. She had no response to Macron on how an exit could create panic in the markets and lower the value of savings of ordinary French people by about 20%. On pensions she stated that 60 was the age for retirement under her plan opening herself up to the criticism that she had no clear idea of the facts as Macron pointed out- that it would mean lower benefits or higher payments into the retirement system. This may be why even some young people who see the banking experience of Macron as a liability, may be offset by others who see this as a possible asset because of the need for some valuable experience in an independent candidate, as described by Dalton.    ...

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A strong U.S. jobs report in July with 255,000 new jobs, unemployment at 4.9%, provides positive sentiment going forward. The Federal Reserve is likely to be wary of raising rates because businesses are hiring but are not making the investments needed to spur economic growth, which remains at about 1%. The labor force participation rate is now at 62.8%. The measure of unemployment and underemployment shows a better picture of how different age groups are faring including the 25-54 years age group- this is at 9.7% in July 2016, it was 9.6% in June 2016. This measure shows those working part time because they cannot find a full time job. The market today is stronger for those with the right job skills, but not across the spectrum for all Americans, only setting the stage for further progress and increasing investment as confidence improves.

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This report in the Economist says that the days of double digit increases in the car market are a thing of the past. Future increases will be in the mid to high single digits, according to McKinsey consulting firm. China's economy is slowing and official estimates of GDP growth of 7% are described by experts as overstated, with real estimate of growth for the 1st quarter of 2015 by Citi, Conference Board and Capital Economics all below 5%, as reported in the WSJ. A sign of the change in the market is the need for higher use of incentives. The growth in the used car market offers buyers other alternatives. The new plants being added will increase production by 5.3 million light vehicles a year and come online in 2015 and 2016, this is in addition to the 22.8 million in sales in 2014. Average Chinese auto plants operate at 70% of capacity and the added volume will lower capacity utilization further. China's local automobile companies, with the exception of companies in joint ventures with foreign companies, have failed to gain customer loyalty. Many of these companies may be absorbed by foreign car makers or shut down as the industry consolidates. Foreign companies will find doing business less attractive as sales decline. ...

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This article by Gerald Seib in the WSJ says not enough was done to attract white working class voters- critical for Trump in industrial swing states- at the Democratic National Convention. He says only on the last night of the convention did a factory worker, a home care provider and a laid off restaurant worker, appear on the stage. These are the voters who have drifted away from the Democratic Party. The convention draws ironically on Republican themes, defense foreign policy as in the speeches by Leon Panetta and retired General Allen, and in efforts to portray Hillary as more human with frailties but a 40 year public service record that includes exceptional work for children. Actually the appeal to traditional Democratic white working class voters was there always in the background with most of the speakers, as it colored most speakers comments including Biden and Kane, who have the colloquial language and style to appeal to this group. The appeal to traditionally white working class voters is in the party platform with the $15 minimum wage for service industry workers, and in the promise to provide college free tution for people making less than $125,000. The Democrats simply painted this with a different brush. Contrasting the callous attitude to the poor and struggling of billionaires like Trump with those who have fought for pushing people up the ladder since FDR- with the lapses in recent years from the tech boom which left some workers short now being addressed. This was expressed by Hillary Clinton saying to Bernie Sanders voters- "your cause is our cause." For Democrats it was more effective to tackle the traditionally Democratic working class voters first, before shifting to working class voters who are border line Republican because of social issues or those who are so disaffected so as to be beyond reach. ...

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Ford is facing a sales disaster in the China market after lagging in coming up with new models and falling behind in adopting new technology in the hyper competitive Chinese market. Sales dropped from 1.27 million vehicles in 2016 to 752,000 vehicles in 2018. In 2018 sales dropped by 37%, when the Chinese market declined by 3%. In 2019 the car market in China shrank by another 12% in the first half.  The problems stem from poor management. Alan Mulally started the China project, his successor from a Michigan furniture company CEO Jim Hackett was unable to grasp the challenges in China with new technology a key feature of keeping abreast of the Chinese market. A succession of new executives in China from U.S. or EUropean operations compounded the problem each group lacking the touch needed with local Chinese conditions. Some experts say Ford is now becoming irrelevant in the Chinese market after being a late starter in coming to China and then investing billions in a catch up effort. GM and VW started much earlier. Ford reported loss of $1.5 billion in 2018. From 5% in 2015 its market share dropped to 2.1% in first quarter 2019. Ford was complacent and applied a global strategy in China when local Chinese car companies were moving with lightning speed. Ford was asked to locate in the far interior of the country as a late comer to China and its partner Chang'an Auto was more concerned about keeping car jobs than introducing the latest technology and models. China is obsessed with new technology and there is no way Ford could be allowed to get away with outdated models. ...

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This story by Emmarie Huetteman describes the effort of three Republican women in the U.S. Senate who had the courage to listen to the different voices in their home state and use their informed judgement in deciding how to vote on a Republican healthcare bill or Affordable Care Act repeal effort. Especially when they heard that it would hurt people in their state, the elderly, low income and other vulnerable people without offering alternatives. Even when this meant resisting pressure from fellow Republicans. The senators are Capito of West Virginia, Collins of Maine, and Murkowski of Alaska. This is particularly significant at a time when too much polarization has led to paralysis in coming up with informed discussion and good solutions to problems. It is also significant that senators from the midwestern states such as Iowa- Mr Grassley, and Kansas- Mr. Moran, also joined the effort to listen first to people back home in their districts before making up their mind. 

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The commodities boom allowed Brazil under president Lula to commit to heavy state spending, subisidies, protection of favored sectors with large tariffs, that led to inefficiency and high debt. The policies continued under president Rousseff. Corruption scandals in the latter part of the Lula administration led to more populist policies for the Workers Party to stay in power, says Porter. Compared to Mexico and Chile, Brazil and Argentina under presidents Lula and Kirchner moved in the direction to closing up their economies to trade and foreign investment that would make corporate sectors more competitive and less dependent on the state for subsidies and favors. Mexico's economy other than the automobile sector is struggling, as mismanagement also plays a part as with the handling of Pemex and huge capital injections needed. Mindfulness and thoughtfulness is needed in setting policy direction, aware of the risks free of illusions about rosy scenarios, knowing that ideology plays less of a part than exercizing good judgement....

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Porter of the NYT points out that the figures released from census information that the U.S. median household income increased by 5.2% in 2015 to $56,500 is good news for Americans including minority and working class families at the lower tiers. However more needs to happen compared to previous recoveries in the mid-90's, and for people who suffered during the recession to finally put that experience behind them, says Porter. 

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Peter Altmaier is director of the chancellery in Berlin, and is the person closest to Angela Merkel. This report in the Economist points out that Altmaier has played a critical role in steps taken by Merkel- as chief whip in parliament for the CDU during the Greece financial crisis and bailouts, as environment minister implementing the program away from coal based electricity, and in negotiating deals such as the deal with Turkey on refugees, and now with Brexit negotiations. Merkel has asked Altmaier to write her manifesto for the September 2017 election. A member of the CDU's liberal wing, Altmaier is known for being a scholar on German history, especially Bismarck, and a workaholic. Here he is mentioned as a bridge maker for the CDU to the Greens Party and was part of a group of CDU and Green Party politicians who met at an Italian restaurant in Bonn. As the moderates are now dominant in the Greens Party, a CDU coalition with the Greens could be shaped by Altmaier if the election results move in that direction. ...