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Efforts to reverse declining investor sentiment in India.

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The Ifo Institute monthly business confidence survey shows a reading of 104.7 for November, up from 103.2 in October 2014.

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The remarkable composition of the most vibrant immigrant filled city in the world, with 47% of the employed being immigrant and foreign born, mostly from developing countries such as Dominican, Chinese, Mexican, Guyanese, Jamaican, Ecuadorean, Haitian, Trinidad and Tobago, and Indian. The city's immigrant population is 3.1 million, 37% of the total population of 8.2 million. The report is written by Joseph Salvo, director of the population division of the City Planning Dept. and Arun Peter Lobo, deputy planning director. Dominicans are 380,000, Chinese 350,000, and Mexicans 186,000. During 2002 to 2011 Chinese population went up 34%, Mexicans 52% and Dominicans 3%. Queens has 1.09 million immigrants, half of that borough, Brooklyn 946,500 or 37% of the borough. The 37% immigrant foreign born population of the city compares to 27% for the New York Metropolitan region. Other interesting details- the growth in the Chinese population of about 89,000 in the city is greater than the entire population of Indians of 76,000, and the large growth in the Ecuadorean population by 22,000. The Indian population went up by 8000 or 12%. Indians in the New York Metropolitan region were in the upper income groups in neighborhood income comparable to people from UK, Germany and Israel, with Chinese being from lesser neighborhood income groups. Median income for Indians in the city was $84,000 compared to Chinese of $43,000, with 28% of Chinese immigrants having a college degree compared to 65% for Indians. This suggests immigrants from China are from poorer areas....

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Prof. Cusumano of MIT, says that with the loss of Apple's Steve Jobs, the company has lost a great visionary, and it will be difficult for Apple's new CEO Time Cook to make up for this loss. Cusumano has talked to many Apple employees in 2013-2014, and is writing a book on innovation. In this piece Chen and Richtel point out the ways Tim Cook is trying to fill the role Jobs filled, by assembling a group of people within the company who can play the pioneering role for new products, and making new acquisitions such as the Beats acquisition to bring in outside talent. Cook pushed for the introduction of the iPad Air, which now accounts for 60% of all iPad sales. The constant push for the magic in new products that Steve Jobs obsessed with down to details, will be missing. Jobs met daily with design chief Jonathan Ive for lunch at the Cupertino headquarters. Cook meets Ive 3 times a week. And Jobs pulled all the pieces of the new product together in a way that others will have difficulty doing. Cook has brought a different dimension to leadership at Apple by talking about Apple in terms of "advancing humanity," talking about his own personal experiences in the South, and seeing racial discrimination barriers for minorities. He was challenged recently to address issues of working conditions at Apple supplier factories in China. Cook is bringing some manufacturing back to the U.S. with building of new plants in Arizona and Texas. These are areas which were gaps in Jobs record, which Cook is filling gradually, and asking shareholders, customers, to be patient....

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Gerald Seib points out that the choice between the Islamists and the military has always been a false one. The young people who are a large part of the population in the Middle East and their hopes for a better future are left out in this choice. The young protesters were the main force behind the ouster of Mubarak. These young people have to be brought into the political process for Egypt to move forward.

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Janet Yellen Fed chairwoman, says many obstacles still exist for women in the workforce. Bringing more women into the workforce will increase the productive capacity of the American economy. The increasing participation of women in the workforce was factor in the growth and prosperity of America by the middle of the 20th century. In a speech sharing her personal narrative at Brown University, her alma mater, she described how other nations had passed the U.S. in women's participation in the workforce, and how it remains stalled at 75% for women either working or looking for work. Her speech was at a conference "125 Years of Women at Brown." The U.S. is now 17th among 22 developed nations in participation of women in workforce, mostly because of government and business policies that relate to paid maternity leave, affordable child care, and flexible work schedules.

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During the primaries Trump appealed to blue collar voters of a white working class that felt neglected by leaders and policies of both parties that did not seem to work for ordinary people. Having caught onto this early long before Republican candidates, Trump registered a series of wins in the Republican primaries. He continued this theme in his acceptance speech at the Republican National Convention on July 21, 2016, saying- "The forgotten men and women of our country- people who work but no longer have a voice: I am your voice." The idea was to couple this with the theme of law and order and put perception of Hillary Clinton as part of the rigged system of the past that Trump would change, with Clinton's legacy described in terms of "death, destruction, terrorism and weakness." As a change agent Trump described his entering the political arena in terms of coming into this election only to help blue collar people "so that the powerful can no longer beat up on people that cannot defend themselves." The two themes for the rest of the election season- law and order, and blue collar lives- and who can best defend them a traditional Democratic politician with a fighting spirit for traditional Democratic values, or a blustery newcomer adept with slogans and the public mood and ironically representing the Democratic values of representing the working class to become the  Republican nominee, with the law and order theme thrown in. The voter or independent listening in to all this will hopefully ask what all this means. As the WSJ, July 19, 2016, pointed out in a recent look at economc policies under the two candidates- on Glass Steagall Act being reinstated to increase safety of the banking system that caused many of today's problems through the 2008 financial crisis both Trump and Clinton are similiar, on opposing trade agreements similiar except that Trump's bluster is a riskier approach, on infrastructure building similiar with Clinton's $275 billion plan spelled out out for source of financing and Trump's unclear as to source of financing. On immigration the candidates are different, on the minimum wage which impacts low income people Clinton supports $15 minimum wage and Trump has not taken a stand. On ISIS and the Middle East Clinton is in reality a hawk and not much difference in the candidates, on law and order more chance of divisions in the country with Trump than Clinton. Overall for the working class and blue collar voter his life will take a decade or more to rebuild, with both candidates commiting to go in that direction. And the bluster and ads to come- just that.  ...

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In Germany's consensus based politics the term flip flop does not have the negative meaning it does in other countries. Chancellor Merkel is adept at presenting changes in policy as coming from careful thought and analysis. She has remained Chancellor for the longest period since Chancellor Kohl, doing this by co-opting the positions of other parties including the SPD. On refugees, atomic energy, same sex marraige, and other issues Merkel has adopted positions that reflect the majority of people.  As the magazine editors of Der Spiegel told Merkel in an interview she is the best chancellor the socialist SPD party ever had. Merkel has the unique ability of doing this and still sounding genuine in a way few leaders could. This may be the result of her background and life as the daughter of a pastor in East Germany who professed socialist ideals and yet was part of the opposition to the GDR regime and reflected changes in Germany as the Berlin Wall came down in 1990. Merkel joined the Democratic Awakening just as the German people in the east gave up on the communist regime. Merkel first major change was on the nuclear energy policy after the Fukushima disaster in Japan. Yet looking at it one can see that Merkel could present her change in belief as sincere. Under Merkel Germany has shifted away from nuclear energy and coal in a way no other nation has. It is now considered one of her most positive achievements in Germany. On the refugee crisis she also shifted her views on the need for enhanced security and on putting in place controls in an agreement with Turkey, addressing the causes of migration in home countries. As a result Merkel now has over 60% support in polls before this weeks election in Germany in September 2017. Contrast this with the sharp decline in support for Sarkozy and Hollande in France, Cameron and now Theresa May in Britain, and for other leaders in the U.S., and one can see how Merkel is different. It has much to do with sincerity and authenticity as a politician. Her favorite soup is potato soup, she drives a VW Golf small car, and lives modestly, shopping in the local grocery store. When it comes to protecting ordinary German people in what Germany owes in bailouts to indebted countries she could be tough with bankers and politicians. All this makes people of different political views see something valuable and to be respected in Angela Merkel, particularly at times like this. ...

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A very relevant comment about the media coverage on Putin's negotiations in Beijing for supplying natural gas to China, by a reader of the WSJ, Frank Peel. He points out China and Russia do not share the same goals and Putin talked about the Chinese as tough negotiators after signing the deal. The price as a "commercial secret" is because its years, could be 5, before gas actually flows to China from Siberian fields. Russia, is a smaller oil based economy- having failed to make the transition to a diversified economy- and very susceptible to the economic conditions in Europe and the U.S., as the 2008 crisis showed with very steep drops in output. President Obama has also pointed to this. Russia also shares with Argentina the tendency for elites- in the case of Russia a newly created oligarchy of business interests under Putin and his predecessor- to shift capital out of the country, making it even more susceptible to loss of value of the currency, the ruble. Devaluation of the ruble experienced under Yeltsin was severely traumatic for Russia, and the head of Russia's central bank went on state television recently to reassure ordinary Russians that this would not happen. The rainy day sovereign fund of over $400 billion acts as a cushion for shocks in short periods, but sustained loss of foreign investment would damage prospects for future improvements in standards of living or economic growth....

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Modernizing India's construction industry may be one of the keys to keeping global growth from slowing down significantly. Here's why. If China slows down significantly after almost two decades of breakneck growth since the 1990's, as nothing like that goes on forever and China is facing significant environmental challenges, skilled workers and managerial talent constraints, and demands for fair treatment and compensation for workers, that stem from this uncontrolled and haphazard growth and export drive. This would leave India as a potentially large engine for world growth if properly managed, a role China has played alongside the USA for so long. India's infrastructure is one of the critical hurdles to achieving this potential. And neither India or the world can afford not to overhaul India's construction industry which is a roadblock to accomplishing what needs to be done in infrastructure. As described here more than 80% of the people in the construction industry are unskilled workers, usually working as day laborers or migrant workers in tiny crews. The other 20% - the carpenters, welders, painters, tile layers, pipe fitters, brick layers, and other skilled trade workers, are becoming harder to recruit and those unskilled workers that receive basic training by companies like Reliance are keen on looking for better opportunities in the Gulf region. The unskilled workers work at construction sites with little training are mainly workers coming from agricultural areas and villages for better wages and living conditions. One of the striking things about Indian construction sites is the use of few machines with most of the unskilled workers, men and women, carrying loads of bricks on their heads, digging holes with shovels and cutting steel bars with mallets and moving sand with spades. There is a huge opportunity for foreign and Indian manufacturers of construction equipment and rapidly increasing production within India of all types of construction equipment should be one of the first things to be tackled. Special incentives by the government and efforts should be made to bring new foreign and domestic investment and plants for construction equipment. Big construction firms that handle large projects, construction equipment manufacturers worldwide and domestic firms interested in investing, and firms involved in large construction projects throughout the country should be brought together in executing the plans for modernization of the construction industry. Training of unskilled workers chosen and recruited for aptitude, discipline and interest in learning new skills from villages as opposed to just working with "nakas" should be initiated in large numbers. A new vocational training system should be initiated borrowing from ideas of systems in countries that have excelled in this in Europe such as Germany so that workers can go straight from villages or urban areas to vocational schools for training in a craft or trade in the construction industry or in the manufacturing industry. And living conditions have to be improved for workers so that skilled workers see advantages in remaining in India rather than leave their families behind for work in the Gulf, and unskilled workers have the basic but good living conditions, access to clean water, basic but decent housing, and clean toilets and showers, and kitchen facilities. One thing is clear one cannot reach organized and well though out development goals on the back of such a haphazard and ineffective sytem of using the human and machine resources in the best possible manner, and free markets and capitalism may not be the best guide in this matter. China's example may not be a good guide in this matter either. There has to be a better way where treating people right and using the most intelligent use of resources brings better results than haphazard approach as with week by week recruiting through "nakas" and minimal use of machines, and recycling of agricultural labor through free markets in labor. The haphazard approach rejects the idea that the training, the discipline and the well thought out approach on recruiting training and best use of human resources without losing sight of costs can lead to superior and continually improving results. The continual improvement and better methods in the construction industry would free up the infrastructure bottleneck and hurdle to growth. Then it would be best to take an original path to development which would be true to the Indian character and spirit and emphasis on education and thoughtful way of doing things, which means that India should make an efficient use of its human and machine resources, and take advantage of all its human resources and intelligent approaches to develop industry and agriculture and avoid the waste in human resources. ...