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The heat wave in India is hurting agricultural production in India. Production losses for wheat could range from 6% to 10 or 15%. The mango crop is hit hard with losses of about 70% and quadrupling of mango prices. Mangoes are part of the identity of India and mango farmers get a new high from a bumper crop. This year has been bad for farmers in the north in India's mango belt including Uttar Pradesh and Gujarat.

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The first Japanese American to reside permanently in America Kanaye Nagasawa was a samurai from 1864 Edo era isolationist Japan. He left Japan in secrecy at 19 as part of a group on a secret mission to learn science and technology from the West. He eventually settled in Sonoma county, California, and set up the wine industry in the region. BBC series Rediscovered America tell his story and the story of the Japanese Americans in the US.

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Paul Krugman says the movie Oppenheimer reminds him of the role played by immigrants and intellectuals in the scientific part of the war effort, in radar and atomic research. He describes the role of Isaac Rabi in the cutting edge research at MIT's Radiation Laboratory that gave the US a radar system the German submarines could not detect, leading to protection of the sea lanes and winning the Battle of the Atlantic in 1943. 

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Mexico's Attorney General under president Enrique Pena Nieto is odered to stand trial by a Mexican judge. The then Attorney General was part of the effort to present "historical truth" version of events in the forced disappearance of 43 students which was rejected by the people. The effort is part of a broader effort to bring the rule of law to Mexico under president Lopez Obrador, including efforts to control illegal money laundering and other illegal use of funds. Nieto was president from 2012 to 2018 when there was a failure in the rule of law in Mexico. This effort also restores dignity to Mexico and Mexicans in the light of the international community. For the US with its large community of people of Mexican origin, and Mexico as its most important southern neighbor, the restoration of the rule of law  brings dignity to people in the region.

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The different views on Ukraine of the Republican party in the US are shown here in this WSJ report. The views range from Rand Paul, Donald Trump to Republican leadership in the Senate under Mitch McConnell. Mr. Trump is also seen as representing an older view of relations with Russia that may no longer exist after the full scale invasion of Ukraine. In this sense Russian tanks invading Ukraine is a watershed event like that of Prague in 1968 and Hungary in 1956. Old views no longer hold. The Cold War began with the Berlin Blockade in 1948- the response of president Harry Truman was the Berlin Airlift supplying the city of Berlin, and some such response is taking shape with the $350 million immediate aid to Ukraine that Biden promised on Feb. 26, within 48 hours of the invasion. The Hungarian revolution in 1956 set the stage for the Cold War after Soviet tanks entered Budapest. The West and the entire free world rallied in 1956 and again in 1968. Some such change is happening now throughout the free world. ...

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For a few weeks the British parliament had remote electronic voting. It worked well. Now traditionalists in the Conservative Party including Mr. Jacob Rees Mogg have restored the voting in person. This led to a queue half a mile long that stretched all the way outside parliament and in Westminster Hall. With social distancing the members were snaking all the way into the outer buildings of parliament. Because of complaints from members with this lengthy process parliamentary officials are looking at other ways including having two lines and using special readers for ID passes that could speed things up. 

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Some startling statistics on U.S. wages and incomes and the increase of part-time workers, by the publisher of U.S. News and World Report, Mortimer Zuckerman. He cites the Pew Research Center reports that show one third of Americans identifying themeselves as lower class or lower middle class compared to one quarter before 2008. This affects social mobility with the increasing gaps in incomes, education and social behaviour acting to reinforce each other and leading to even lower future mobility. Industries that are showing growth are in low wage occupations. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows growth in future in industries noted for low wage part time work- health care, social assistance and retail, with some jobs lacking minimum wage and overtime protections. Revealing in this respect is that in the last 2 years fully 43% of net employment growth is in the 1.7 million jobs added in low wage work in food service, retail and employment services industries. The number of Americans working full time declined by 5.9 million since Sept 2007, part time workers increased by 2.6 million. The effects of higher part time workers and job recovery predominantly in lower wage industries is likely to affect consumer spending and slow growth....

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Heather Stewart and Jessica Elgot ask if Johnson's Conservative party can deliver for Britain, can deliver for women, can deliver for climate change, can deliver for health, education and infrastructure, can deliver for workers dignity, can deliver for families and children, by looking at one of its leaders. He looks at the polished image of Rishi Sunak after his Stanford days. This Guardian report says Treasury insiders see this Tory leader with respect rather than warmth, with some saying that the smooth veneer or polished tech-bro image is hard to penetrate. In a separate piece Ian Jack looks at Jacob Rees-Mogg in The Guardian in January 2022. This comes as Johnson's leadership is challenged because of Christmas partying at a time when the Queen was alone in Westminster Abbey mourning for Prince Philip to follow Covid-19 protocol. What kind of leadership Britain needs for the future after the pandemic is the question put forward by these writers in The Guardian. ...

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California Governor Jerry Brown reflects on what the Democrats missed in the last 4 years- the crisis of affordability of housing, for groceries. And with the border issues the unease about flow of fentanyl across the border that with transgender and culture that adds to unease is the silent issue Democrats failed to face up to for working class Americans. Orange County going for Democrats,  Imperial County going the opposite way, that says a lot about things today.  "When you see Imperial County going for Trump and Orange County going for Harris,” Jerry Brown reflected says this Politico report, a party that was winning wealthier, coastal Californians, but that had “lost a percentage of the working families.” "Democrats need to get their act together, focusing on the basic stuff — the economy, the environment.” ...

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Krugman points out the risks for the U.S. economy as the U.S. loses export competitiveness with the euro reaching parity with the dollar. The huge shift from $1.50 to the dollar at one point to parity gives Europe a sudden strong boost. Europe needs the boost to escape a deflationary trap, and there is little that can be done for capital flows and exchange rates, says Krugman. He points out that many Federal Reserve governors were clueless of the impact this could have on U.S. growth, sanguinely assuming the U.S. would boost growth in 2015. Better says Krugman for the Fed to be very careful about raising rates at a time when wage growth is sluggish, and inflation low.

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Becky Branford of BBC News gives five reasons for Emmanual Macron's win in the French presidential election. She cites experts who say Macron was lucky, had a canny ability to see the timing was right for a new party to be formed so that socialist voters had an alternative. His luck comes from the failure of Republican centre right party Fillon to mobilize right wing voters following reports that he had hired his wife and children for government jobs. Yet this is not a complete explanation. Macron had the intuition that something was happening in French politics and the courage to act on it early, the youthful energy to take up the challenge of a mass movement. The events were the declining popularity of the socialists, and the fragmentation of the left wing, the uncertain prospects of the Sarkozy effort at comeback because of his image from years in power, and the need to counter growing far right support for the National Front- to do this by offering an alternative in the centre. From that one courageous decision things from that point fell into place as the Republican party also failed to attract strong public support.  A mere 24% of the vote enabled Macron to enter the second round. Macron's grasp of the economy and conviction helped him win the final debate with Le Pen decisively. His sense of his own mission to revive the idea of Europe sustained him against attacks from the far right, including the late cyber attack on his emails in the last 24 hours.  Macron could still have prevailed over Le Pen without the strong campaign for staying on a positive message and confidence in his ability to turn France's economy around. Yet without a margin of victory of this size in the face of abstaining voters from the far left, Macron as president would not have looked the same. The next step is parliamentary elections in June, and governing France with a turnaround plan requires winning a majority in parliament of sufficient magnitude that he can implement a program which makes the French economy as competitive as Germany's. People forget that Germany was considered a economy with high unemployment and not as competitive under the Schroeder administrations that preceded Angela Merkel, this includes the French with the layers of pessimism. Emmanuel Macron deserves credit not for winning, but winning with the idea of Europe, and it has done as much for him from the French people who have put their faith in Europe when the chips are down, as he has done for Europe already. How this helps put a turnaround in the economy in place is that he will have the energy and enthusiasm of Germany behind him, as well as the energy of French industry and young people to do what Germany accomplished in the 2000-2010 period to emerge from years of high unemployment with a strong economy. ...

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A number of issues came up at the Women20 Summit in Berlin. Annette Niederfranke, Director of the International Labor Organization, brought up the issue of family reconciliation as "one of the toughest challenges for working women worldwide," that in order to meet obligations women tended to work in "non standard forms of employment and in part time work linked to lower wages, lower social security, lower benefits, and fewer training possibilities." Childcare was also an issue that was prominent considering the lack of adequate childcare in many countries including in the European Union. With responsibilities for the elderly, babies, and small children women tend to be in the workforce for shorter periods leading to men taking up many of the higher positions. Angela Merkel pointed out that Gemany tended to take a narrow view of professions available to girls, saying- "So it is very very important that we take a broader view of things while girls are still at school." Merkel also supports a Africa compact that would help women set up small and middle size businesses in poor countries. The "Digital" aspects of this and other efforts for women were a major topic being discussed. One idea that came up was that more cooperation from men was needed to make things happen. This is the third Women20 Summit after ones in Turkey and China, and a sense of momentum was felt by women. ...

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Reasons why class identification and party identification are not the same thing. Other factors besides income go into determining voter preferences, which can change in different periods and situations.

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Germany's new Interior Minister Hans-Peter Friedrich said that Islam did not play a major role in German culture, and was not a part of the German way of life. He said successful integration requires knowledge of the social reality in Germany and an awareness of the Western Christian origin of German culture. The question facing Germany is how to integrate 4 million Muslims living in Germany. The Turkish prime minister told Muslims in Dusseldorf that Turkish parents should teach their children Turkish first, before German, and that the Turkish culture and civilization should not be ripped away from Turkish people in Germany. He drew a distinction between assimilation which he rejected and integration which he encouraged. The problem is that integration is seen in different terms by Muslims and by Germans in different parts of the political spectrum. For Lutheran Bishop Druge of Berlin, integration to the German way of life was integrating into a democratic way of life based on dialogue and human rights....

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The Indian Supreme Court on July 27 upholds the core amendments to the Prevention of Money Laundering Act (PMLA)  which gives the enforcement authority, the Enforcement Directorate ED, the powers to make summons, arrest, and other powers to enforce the law. The Supreme Court called the PMLA a law against "the scourge of money laundering." After independence in 1947 some of the problems that Mohandas Gandhi witnessed in the early Congress party ministries allowed by the British in the 1930's became a part of the political fabric as accepted ways of operating. It is only in the last decade that these practices have come to be seen as inconsistent with the development of the country and ones that would have been rejected outright by Mohandas Gandhi as inconsistent and repelling to his India of Hind Swaraj. In a 545 page judgement the Special Bench of Justices AM Khanwilkarm Dinesh Maheshwari, and CT Ravikumar, stated that- "This is a sui generis (unique) legislation... The Parliament enacted the Act as a result of the international commitment to sternly deal with the menace of money laundering of proceeds of crime having transnational consequences." Mohandas Gandhi would be appalled by how elected ministries operated in the India that followed in the first decades after 1947. Not only were some of the basic principles of honest government being violated, it was being done with such impunity that over time it crept into the culture of how things operated in India, destroying any confidence the people had in the responsibilities of government and its ability to deliver on those responsibilities. The Supreme Court has now taken up the task of restoring some of the integrity of Gandhi's Hind Swaraj with its statement that- "Money laundering is an offence against the sovereignty and integrity of the country." Money laundering the SC says is "every process and activity", direct or indirect dealing with the proceeds of crime. Justice Khanwilkar wrote: "Today, if one dives deep into the financial systems, anywhere in the world, it is seen that once a financial mastermind can integrate the illegitimate money into the bloodstream of an economy, it is almost indistinguishable. In fact the money can simply be wired abroad at one click of the mouse. It is well known that once this money leaves the country, it is almost impossible to get it back. Hence a simplistic argument  that Section 3 (offence of money laundering) should only find force once the money has been laundered, does not commend to us."   ...

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Karen Handel, Republican, and Jon Ossoff, Democrat, compete in Georgia's 6th Congressional District in the most costly House race in history. It has become a referendum on Trump. Democrats need 24 more seats to get a majority in the House of Representatives, and Georgia is the place where they have started their effort. Yet experts say voters are deciding based on the candidates and their merits not just the party or Trump.

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This speech by chancellor Merz to the German parliament the Bundestag, marks a major turning point for Germany since reunification in 1990. This is where chancellor Merz took up the task of Germany shouldering responsibilities in the world for its economic role and for it's role in defence of Europe. Hardly 2 months in office the Merz coalition with finance minister Kingbeil and defense minister Pistorius both of the SPD, and foreign minister Wadephul of the CDU, is setting a new direction for Germany, in a historic moment. Merz says Germany needs to be strong and reliable from now on. Huge new investment for the first time since 1990 sets the path to modernization of the Germany economy and German infrastructure, German defense. Not surprisingly Merz comes not from the professional class of politicians but from business as head of German investment fund for Black Rock. He brings a clear headed common sense approach and has the support of the Social Democrats and the Green Party in its investment program to rebuild the German economy. The media focuses on AfD yet it misses the point that fully 57% of voters back Merz and Kingbeil, that the AfD reached its high point at 20.8 percent of vote with the offset of the Left parties at 16 percent of voters and with Merz's policy on stopping all illegal migration. Merz moved quickly to remove the constitutional debt brake set by Merkel and had parliament pass a budget that supports modernization of infrastructure on a big scale. ...

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Brown makes a stirring appeal to the British public and to members of his own party promising to take Britons through the difficult economic circumstances they face at a Lobor party gathering in Manchester, England. 11 years of Labor governments is leaving the British people with fatigue with Labor administrations and gives Conservatives high poll ratings but Brown as persevered amid all the rumors about challenges to his leadership and skeptical public. He has handled economic affairs for Labor for a long time and brings considerable experience at a time of economic crisis for Britain, and he will need to show the kind of leadership Britain needs in the present crisis.

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NATO members except Spain agree to spend 5% on defense, 3.5% on military and 1.5% on defense industry. Germany makes purchase of 35 F-35 fighter aircraft from the US for $8.2 billion in 2025 to be fitted with cruise missiles from Norway. Defense minister Pistorius says Germany has moved with "supersonic speed" on defense capabilities. This a big change from Scholz. New CDU chancellor in coalition with the SPD is Friedrich Merz who with a popular former defense minister Pistorius from the Scholz coalition and the new SPD finance minister in the Merz coalition Lars Kingbeil, is changing the way Germany looks at investing for the future. It has embraced defense of Europe and modernization of German infrastructure. German federal elections gives the coalition of Merz the 28.6 votes percentage of CDU/CSU in addition the SPD's 16.4% for governing with 45% of the vote, and additional 11.6% of SPD's ally the Green Party which supports it outside the coalition for total 57%. For this reason it is a coalition government with real clout to get things done for Germany's modernization. Much of the media focus is on AfD's far right 20.8% but this has been offset by the Left Parties gaining 14% of the vote in the formerly communist East (GDR) where the AfD is based. Thus about 60% of German voters support Merz/Lingbeil/Pistorius for some far reaching action by Merz well into 2030, for the first time since reunification in 1990. To add to this most of Europe including Germany under Merz has embraced a tough line on illegal migration similar to DJT in US so that far right AfD gains from discontent have reached their high point at 20.8%.   ...

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Many German hospitals depend on supply of doctors from other parts of Eastern Europe such as Poland and Hungary to address a shortage of medical staff. German hospitals have increased supply of equipment but are still facing serious shortages of medical staff as the second wave of the pandemic hits Germany. By December 8 there were daily over 590 deaths, and ICU capacity was being strained beyond a critical point.

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Example of a aluminium company in Quingtongxia which disconnected from the national electricity grid and connected to the local electricity grid with the consent of the regional government to bypass the increase in electricity prices mandated by the central government in Beijing designed to discoutrage electricity consumption by energy intensive industries. As a result of this type of activity China has seen only a 2 % decrease in electricity consumption in the first half of 2007 by official estimates. To meet the goal of a 20% reduction in energy consumption per unit of output by 2010 China would have to see reductions in the range of 4% per year. This example of Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region is an interesting one. Ningxia is in the western region of China and unlike the coastal regions which were the early beneficiaries of China's manufacturing boom years, this part of the country lagged behind. Its near Inner mongolia and far to the north west of the country near Gansu province. its one of the samllest o the provinces and autonomous regions, having a population in 1949 of about only 1 million, its since grown with migration and indutrial development but is still lagging behind. It has plentiful coal and so it is felt here that this is a natural resource asset that would help it grow in energy intensive industries like aluminium and help it close the gap with the coastal proivinces. The industrial development came to Ningxia only in the last 10 years so that its local economy and regional government officials feel they would be left out if they aren't allowed to catch up. So to them it all makes sense. Several other factors play a part. The rapid economic growth means more opportunities for relatives and friends of regional government officials. This is happening across China in coastal provinces and in the provinces of the interior. How can senior government officials in the coastal and large cities in the east point a finger at hese offendors when they are all beneficiaries of the same system and are using it to their benefit. And then there is the factor that rapid economic growth is considered the main objective if it slows down and there is social unrest from unemployment or other worker or farmer unrest then all government officials and communist party officials lose out if the communist party loses control. And the fear of chaotic years following social unrest create a common interest in pursuing rapid economic growth at all costs. So its a roller coaster that while the leaders in Beijing and Shanghai and the big eastern cities are aware of the risks and costs to the environment and other costs they are not able to control regional and local policies and actions....

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The situation in China with recent rural migrants shown to be different from the migrants from rural areas in the earlier phase of development after the opening in 1990 under Deng. The overnight eviction of recent rural area migrants from Beijing, referred in official documents as "low-end population" leaves this segment of the population (about 90 million) facing uncertain future. The previous generation of rural migrants were seen as more stable as they could farm and had connections to the villages and rural areas. The new migrants lack connection to villages and have little experience working on farms. They were born since 1980, and are seen in party documents as a new generation of migrants. The earlier generation had seen the upheavals of the Cultural Revolution and memories of poverty, and were focused on basic needs.  The new generation of migrants is more dissatisfied, has more education but of lower quality, some were left behind in rural areas by parents who migrated to cities, and men in this group face a lack of women partners because of the one child system and decline in female births. Two thirds of these migrants are unmarried and the men lack the income to pay what is called a reverse dowry of having an apartment and a car to attract women for marraige. The governing party sees this new group of $90 million which has no access to subisidized education and health care under the resident "hukou" system as a source of instability in urban areas of China. ...

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Plans by the Scottish National Party to hold a referendum in 2014 on the issue of independence from Britain. Polls by ComRes, Ipsos Mori and YouGov have generally shown the range of support of 29-36%. A more recent poll in Oct 2011 by ComRes showed 49% of Scots support independence. The other option to independence is a greater transfer of powers from Britain to Scotland. The Cameron government wants such a referendum held earlier when the sentiment for independence is not as strong. The Scottish National party won a majority of seats in the Scottish parliament in the last elections.

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In 1980 Jeb Bush 27, was looking for a place where he could make a fresh start away from the Bush name in Washington and Texas. His father was making a run for president that year. Miami with its bustling Cuban American community seemed a perfect place for Bush with his fluency in Spanish and his Mexican born wife Columba. The co-chairman of the Bush campaign in Florida was a Cuban American, Armando Codina. He set up Bush Realty, making Jeb Bush a partner with a 40% stake in the firm. In this period 1980-1992, Bush's gross income averaged 107,000 for the 6 years before the elder Bush was elected president to $1.6 million in 1990 half way during the elder Bush's term as president, according to a WSJ analysis of tax returns. This was also a period when Jeb Bush while engaging in business deals, was also running for office- first as Commerce secretary for 2 years in 1987, making a unsuccessful run for governor in 1994, and a successful run in 1998, 2002. He helped boost the Republican party in the Miami area, bringing together Republicans and the Cuban American exile community, during the anti-communist mood of the Reagan period. As Miami-Dade county Republican party chairman he helped boost voter rolls for the party, which had a 2 to 1 Democratic party advantage in earlier years. Stewart and Reinhard document the situations in which the Bush connections at the White House helped Jeb Bush in his real estate business....

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Increasing regulation on Mexico's telephone monopoly of America Movil, and Telmex, part of Carlos Slim's telephone business in Mexico. Mexico's three main parties have agreed to increase regulation on the monopoly to reduce the high charges paid by Mexico's telecom users. Estimates by OECD show Mexicans paying an extra $13 billion a year from 2005 to 2009 because of the monopoly and high prices. The administration of Pena Nieto made controlling telecom and other monopolies an important part of its program. To get an idea of the extent of the monopolistic control - 70 percent of the cellphone market and 65 percent of fixed lines are controlled by companies run by Slim.  AT&T is now a competitor and is helping bring down high cellphone plan prices.