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Takes the risks of the bubble collapsing quite lightly in his reference to the Great Depression after the 1920's stock bubble in the USA. It took several decades for the economy to come back in the US after the 1920's China can ill afford such an experience as hundereds of millions of Chinese are not benefitting in the rural areas as are the coastal areas so for them it would be a great setback, and the economy would take years to recover which can be quite painful.

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When asked about gas prices and about inflation as well as about the recession Edward Lazear Chairman of the President's Council of Economic Advisors takes a rather laid back response. Unemployment Benefits extension - with the labor market at 4.8% unemployment he thinks the job market is still tight. On inflation he thinks food prices increases were specific to 2007 and that inflation is relatively under control even though he says inflation numbers at 4.3% for the past 12 months is higher than the average for the last couple of years. His reasoning is that core inflation is low and the increase in energy and food prices were idiosyncratic specific to 2007. But the higher prices of food appear to be here for the next couple of years worldwide as demand grows and better nutrition around the world and energy prices are still pushed by overseas demand that by Lazear's own views have not slackened. And prices are up in China pushing up prices of cheaper imports and prices at your local Walmart. So how is inflation relatively under control?...

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$150 billion in subprime writedowns taken $135 bllion to go according to BW and for Citigroup only $21 billion taken and anywhere from $15 billion additional expected or upto $39 billion additional expected in the worst case. he worst is still ahead clearly.

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The IEA which is the energy agency of the OECD has updated its demand estimates for oil based on the updated estimates of growth in the US and Europe of the IMF and the OECD. The IEA reports have been behind the curve like the IMF estimates and more after the fact revisions. Their current forecast of world demand growth drops their January estimate of demand by 35% to 1.3 million barrels a day from 2 million barrels a day in 2008 vs 2007. This reflects the one percentage point drop in growth in the USA from 1.5% to 0.5% in the recently revised IMF estimate. This should lead to drop in oil prices from the high of $110 currently. But the IEA is leery of predicting this because of what it sees as robust growth in India and China. Partly IEA is caught between different views of world economic growth, one view holds that Europe will see some impact from the US slowdown but Asia will see less of an impact, another view sees this as a global economic slowdown. More likely considering the extent of the bubbles and the excesses in different countries its likely that whats happening in the US will see effects worldwide and lead to a global slowdown. So look for a further downward revision of numbers for oil demand growth as well as estimates that suggest lower oil prices once the effects are felt on the ground in factories, plants and industry worldwide....

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Used car retailer CarMax says wholesale market prices for SUV's and trucks were down about 25% in the first few months of 2008 to May 31. The market deteriorated quite a bit in May and early June as the decline becomes deep and significant.

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GM is conducting a wholesale review of its product lineup and its brands as the severity and sharp decline in sales of SUV's and pickup trucks has caught many automakers including Toyota by surprise. Prices of used pickup trucks and SUV's have declined by 25% in a matter of a few months with the sharpest decline in May and early June according to CarMax a used car retailer. See the link to this in WSJ, June 19, 2008. For GM this amounts to a redirection of critical resources that would be wasted under the earlier plan which involved a new generation of trucks and SUV's to hit the market in 2012. Now these resources need to be redirected to where the market is in smaller fuel efficient designs. GM is seeing its stock price and critical resources of cash and investment in desirable new product impacted by this lack of perception and action on the direction and speed with which the market is moving. is moving

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Deocuments from the weekly cabinet meeting show the new budget in France will increase revenues from household income taxes by 23%, and business taxes by 30%. The top marginal income tax rate goes up to 45% from 41%. Limiting a deduction for financial charges for company's taxable income brings in $4 billion in 2013, according to the finance ministry. The goal is to cut the budget deficit to 3% of GDP in 2013 from 4.5% in 2012. The finance ministry has assumed higher borrowing rates for future years- 2.9% on 10 year debt for 2013, up to 3.65% in 2015, and is not relying on the low rate of 2.18% on 10 year government bonds as reported by Trade Web Sept 28, 2012. The overall tax burden will be 46.3% in 2013, and 46.7% in 2015. French debt is at 91% of GDP for the 2nd quarter 2012, expected to be 91.3% in 2013 and falling to 82.9% in 2015. Prime minister Ayrault emphasized- "If we don't put a stop to this, taxpayer money will keep paying for debt reimbursement." Swift anticipatory action and unified government-business-labor posture under a favorable borrowing environment characterizes the approach for Britain and France in 2011-2012, compared to the situation in Spain where government action has been slow, not tough enough in cleaning up the banks, fallen behind in anticipating events and the government-business-labor unified posture has cracked under the strain. As a result under an unfavorable borrowing environment money raised from austerity type tax increases now goes to paying for debt reimbursement in Spain, leading to a situation in which debt and deficit reduction targets just get harder to achieve. A looming drop in credit ratings to junk status for Spain only makes the situation harder to overcome. ...

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A big hurdle for local brands in China is the Chinese consumer's interest and respect for foreign brands. Asked about local brands buyers say they can't think of any, or say Chinese brands are shoddy in quality and value. Brands such as Haier in consumer appliances and Lenovo in tech are an exception. During the big surge in consumer sales in the last two decades Chinese companies producing local brands thought it adequate to simply imitate foreign brand names rather than take the difficult route of establishing the credibility of their own brand- an effort which might take years. Often the foreign name was changed slightly to keep the resemblance but mean something positive to Chinese consumers in the local language. Common are names such as Adidos, Hike, Cnoverse and Fuma for sneakers. Clio Coste keeps the connection to Lacoste with its crocodile logo. Coca Cola in Chinese is Kekoulele, translated to mean Tasty Fun. Only now are local companies giving serious attention to creating long term brand entity and image. The serious attention to brand names and branding comes at a time when China increasingly depends on consumer sales to power the economy with the decline in real estate and slower manufacturing. For the 11 months of 2014 retail sales were up 12 percent over the prior year period to $3.8 trillion, according to the National Bureau of Statistics. ...

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David Blanchett, head of retirement research at Morningstar Investment Management, William Reichenstein, Powers Professor at Baylor University, Guyton at Cornerstone Wealth Advisors in Minneapolis, and Hebeler, former head of Boeing Aerospace (who does dissemination of free sound financial planning at www.analyzenow.com), provide a better understanding of the issues involved in making good retirement planning decisions and the thinking needed to avoid errors.

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China's jobs situation is holding up better than expected with lower levels of economic growth. In 2014 there were 115 job openings for every 100 applicants, according to an official labor survey. Part of the reason is that the services sector is playing a larger role in growth. The services sector contributed 3.8% to growth in 2014, compared to the slower growing manufacturing sector, which contributed 3.0 percentage points. With problems in heavy industry and real estate this is reducing the need for larger stimulus spending. Official figures for GDP growth in 2014 are 7.4%.

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Using a new methodology India's statistics agency revises growth for 2013 to 5.1%, for 2014 fiscal year to 6.9%. Growth for 2015 is forecast at 7.4%. For the 3 months Oct-Dec. 2014 the growth in GDP was at 7.5%. Changes in methodology include computing it at market price, not at factor cost. This adds up consumer and firm spending instead of producer costs.

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U.S. Federal Reserve chairwoman, Janet Yellen, says the Fed's promise to be "patient" before raising interest rates means it will hold off for 2 months to check economic conditions before taking action. This would put the decision off till June 2015. The Fed will look at a range of factors including inflation, says Yellen. Yellen's comments to the Senate Banking Committee on Feb. 24, 2015 were- "I don't want to set down any single criterion that's necessary for rate increases to occur. We will be considering a range of evidence that pertains to the inflation outlook." In testimony Yellen said she wanted to be "reasonably confident" that inflation will return to 2% before raising rates. The Fed's measure of inflation, Commerce Department's personal consumption expenditures price index is below the 2% inflation target of the Fed for 52 of the past 68 months, and for 34 consecutive months.

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How returns in the U.S. stock markets of over 30% in 2013 change the picture of five year returns to the end of 2013 compared to the end of 2012. Long run has to be much more than 5 years and even longer for decent returns.

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Planning for lifestyle issues and how time will be spent together, as well as expenses, when one partner retires before the other.