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China's Stock Surge Raises Fundamental Questions
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Takes the risks of the bubble collapsing quite lightly in his reference to the Great Depression after the 1920's stock bubble in the USA. It took several decades for the economy to come back in the US after the 1920's China can ill afford such an experience as hundereds of millions of Chinese are not benefitting in the rural areas as are the coastal areas so for them it would be a great setback, and the economy would take years to recover which can be quite painful.
Economic and sales forecasts in the boom years before the 2008 financial crisis, and well into the downturn, that lost objectivity and analytical focus.
07/14/2005
How objectivity and analytical focus was lost as company and association management in the housing, auto and other industries, and their economists tried to believe and maintain the status quo. A similiar situation at the US central bank, the IMF, and other locations. The tendency to be upbeat and ignore emerging danger signs requiring a more realistic assessment. And the frequent revisions as a result of this.
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