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Eric Spector is an ultra marathon runner at age 71. He lives in Palo Alto, Calif., and is semiretired, until 2014 he worked as CEO of OneRoof a social enterprise that opened internet centres in rural Mexico and India. He has run as much as 100 miles. His first was 50K. He avoids trail running because of the hazards.

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U.S. president Obama called Libya and the policy of not following up on helping establish a stable democratic government in Libya his biggest mistake. Kristof of the NYT says people looking back would say Syria and not establishing safe zones is Obama's biggest mistake. He describes the 470,000 deaths in Syria as a huge tragedy that could have been avoided to a large extent by setting up safe zones. In addition the UN estimates that millions of refugees on a scale similar to the partition of India in 1947 were created.There is bipartisan opinion on this. Kristof cites General Cartwright's opinion in a conversation he had with Cartwright that this should have been done. Others who agree are Madeleine Albright, Bill Clinton's Secretary of State, who spoke at the Democratic Convention about how America helped change her life as a young refugee after Russia's invasion of Czechoslovakia following Prague Spring. Albright says force should be used carefully so as not to aggravate the situation but action taken where needed, something that was done successfully under Bill Clinton in the Bosnian conflict following Serbia's ethnic cleansing policy under Milosevic. Not only that, with the diplomacy of ambassador Holbrooke Clinton was able to negotiate the peace accords that hold till today- a huge achievement.  Kori Schake, director of defense strategy in the George W. Bush White House also agrees. This would have improved U.S. relations with Turkey as this was a key Turkish request. And it would have reduced the dimensions of the refugee crisis in Europe, which has hurt the European Union. The Brexit "No" vote many in Britain have attributed to ads showing refugees in endless numbers streaming across Europe's borders. Similar ads were used in Austria's elections. Kristof points out that Secretary of State Kerry's job of negotiating a peace is difficult in these conditions. Another issue raised by Kristof is the lack of Obama's leadership in helping the refugees in Jordan, Lebanon and Turkey, as he points out only 41% of this is funded. David Miliband former British Foreign Secretary, who heads the International Rescue Committee , says 200,000 Syrian kids are growing up in Lebanon without an education. George Washington counseled against getting involved in the wars on the European continent for a young nation, this advice was not followed in the Reagan and other administrations without showing the carefulness needed before action is taken. As Hillary Clinton has once pointed out the situation has resembled a pendulum swinging in the other direction under president Obama, and former Defense Secretary, Panetta, has expressed similar views. Hillary Clinton and Leon Panetta, Gates, Gen. Jones, served in the first term of the Obama administration, many of these mistakes were made in the second term by president Obama and his White House advisors Dennis McDonough, Valerie Jarrett who clearly lacked the deep foreign policy experience of Hillary Clinton, Leon Panetta (who served under Bill Clinton), and Gates who served under many presidents). ...

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Greece's New Democracy party and Mr. Mitsotakis wins about 41% of the vote in Greece's elections. Syriza come is second with 21% and Pasok left party at 12%. Mitsotakis has increased Greece's growth to twice the eurozone rate, and cut migrants by 90% in line with EU policy. New Democracy party gets 145 seats in a 300 member parliament. The first round was conducted under proportional representation, only 60% of voters cast their vote. Mitsotakis will go for another election by July because in a second round the winner gets additional seats and this could let it form its own government. It sees this as needed to maintain policies of economic growth that have led to GDP growth at twice the rate of the eurozone. A surveillance scandal appears not to have affected the election results as Greeks opted for stability and growth. Mitsokatis himself put it this way- "This is not the time for experiments that lead nowhere." Greece was almost out of the eurozone when Syriza conducted referendums on the debt repayment that led to a chaotic situation, and then moved in the opposite direction in callous implementation when the Eurozone held firm. Mitsotakis said Greece needs to achieve an investment grade rating to lower borrowing costs. Worldwide the policy of delivering on growth is key to success in elections in democracies and in countries that are catching up after the colonialist phase. This is true for delivery of infrastructure and public services such as water and electricity, modern rail in India. It is true also for winning enough public support in countries like China that run parliamentary representation under one party the CCP. Strict immigration controls since 2015 reflect a similar policy pursued recently by Italy. Migrants have dropped by 90%. This is popular among Greeks. Looking back Merkel made a serious error in letting in migrants coming in from Hungary and Austria at the beginning of the migration inflows into the EU in 2015. Merkel came from former East Germany, the communist led GDR, and had no understanding of how harmful this would be for the European Union. In just one year by 2016 the misguided open migration policies of Merkel had led to her CDU party getting less votes than an anti immigration AfD party in her home state of Meckenburg. It led to anti-immigration movements in Europe that were used by parties in a self-serving way including in Britain that led to exit of Britain from the EU. It also led to a decade of austerity and a lost decade for the European Union as it permanently sidelined parties to the left such as Social Democrats that unknowingly or unwittingly ended up with the blame for the public's discomfort with lack of borders and migrants upsetting borders. In balance the right way to tackle this was to build stronger economies that supported workers and families in the EU, that then invested significantly in developing countries of Africa and Asia to help them catch up with modernization. Another failure in policy was the Bush-Obama Merkel policies in failed states such as Iraq and Afghanistan. There it was fundamentally important not to get involved in any way that committed US or EU's precious resources.  ...

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The WSJ provides a fact check of Trump statements on crime, debt, and taxes. Trump says he is looking at a new plan for taxes not the $10 trillion in tax cuts over 10 years reducing tax collection by 22%, but something about a third of the size. No details are available on the plan. WSJ disputes Trump's statement that the U.S. is "one of the highest taxed nations in the world." WSJ points out that the U.S. in 2014 for federal, state and local government taxes collected 26% of gross domestic product in taxes, compared to average of 34% for about 30 countries, according to OECD. Debt to GDP ratio is about 75% that is high, but because of low interest rates the budget deficit is less than 3% of GDP, which is close to the long run average. For this reason economists say the government should invest in infrastructure and R&D that supports long run economic growth. On crime the record is mixed with increase in Chicago, Los Angeles, and New York City, but decreases in Washington D.C. and Baltimore. Police shootings were 67 in 2016 compared to 62 in July 2015, and the high being 280 officers in 1974 when Nixon was President. Crime was an issue in the 1968 Republican National Convention during the Vietnam era protests, police shootings and terror incidents attracted attention in July 2016, yet the situation today is very different from the war protests of the Vietnam era. On terrorism fact checks by the NYT and in Lyrarc shows Clinton at State Department and Panetta at Defense Department taking hawkish stands only to hit a barrier from President Obama for taking action needed in Syria, Iraq and Libya. Panetta's new book calls for robust action where needed. A Clinton administration would take action with allies in the Middle East. Even Hollande and Obama who pulled the U.S. and France out of following up in the French-British Sarkozy-Cameron led intervention in Libya, have changed policy, with Obama calling it his biggest mistake. France under Hollande with the U.S. is now actively engaged in the Middle East, having changed policy. It is highly unlikely that a Trump led policy which alienates most allies in the Middle East- Iran, Iraq and Saudis- is likely to work better than a determined Clinton-Panetta led effort which has support of the local countries on the ground actually currently on both sides because of complexities of Middle Eastern politics.  On trade a new administration will still have to work with China, India, the European Union, and other countries, as global trade supply chains are not likely to evolve overnight. Lessons will have been learned by Clinton about the need to bring back jobs and ensure the strength of U.S. manufacturing. Economic and jobs growth will require prudence in strengthening U.S. manufacturing coupled with global cooperation, which a Trump administration that alienates trading partners without the possibility of making any serious immediate gains in jobs, is highly unlikely to do better.      ...

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Toyota's goal is to remain the preeminent automobile manufacturer in emerging markets and the IMV is part of its strategy for achieving this goal. The IMV series for emerging markets, with one million in manufacturing capacity coming off a single platform to lower costs, is designed to meet local needs from a price standpoint and rough road conditions. Sales of one million off of a single platform is an achievement only Toyota will have achieved. A minivan, a sport utility vehicle and 3 pickup trucks are all made from a single chassis, with localized production since 2004. The IMV series is expected to account for 10% of the 9.58 vehicle sales goal for 2012. CEO Akio Toyoda plans to increases sales in emerging markets to 50% of total sales by 2015, up from 40% in 2011. IMV vehicles are made in 11 emerging market countries- in Argentina, India, South Africa and Thailand, and are sold as the Hilux pickup, the Fortuner SUV, and the Innova minivan. Over the years Toyota has transferred more of the design and development to emerging market countries to meet local preferences and reduce the effects of a strong yen, leaving only core components to be designed and manufactured in Japan. As it recovers from supply disruptions due to floods in Thailand and the tsunami in Japan, Toyota is planning on sales of 9.58 million in 2012, a steep climb of 21% from the 7.95 million sold in 2011....

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The U.S. Congress passed free-trade agreements with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama, in October 2011. The deals are expected to increase U.S. exports by $13 billion, including $11 billion to S. Korea.

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One of the authors of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology study cited by president Trump, John Reilly, says president Trump in citing the MIT study showed " a complete misunderstanding of the problem." Reilly's view is that even the Paris accords are not enough, that it is one step, in his words "an incredibly important step," without which the next step cannot be taken. His view is also that the Trump White House may not be listening, so MIT does not plan to reach out to correct this view.

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Both Ranbaxy and Dr.Reddy's, two of India's largest pharmaceutical companies, are bidding for Betapharm, Germany's fourth largest generic drugs maker. Ranbaxy's bid at 500 million euros was 50 million euros higher than Dr. Reddy's. Betapharm based in Augsburg, Germany, has sales of 161 million euros, and a workforce of 350. For Dr. Reddy's this is a way to get a foothold in a branded generic market in a developed country, says Dr. Reddy. This will be the largest foreign acquisition for an Indian pharmaceutical company.

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Open Market Commitee takes a position of pause and wait as it decides in March 2012 not to take any new further bond buying stimulus measures. There is uncertainty in equity markets about the effect this will have on equity prices. During the last two pauses in 2010 and 2011 the equity markets experienced downturns after withdrawal of bond buying measures by the Fed, leading to Fed action with QE 1 and QE 2 followed by a surge in equity prices and the S&P at over 1400. At the peak during the 2001 and 2008 dot-com and housing propelled booms the S&P reached over 1500. At this rate the curve for U.S. equity prices for the 2008-2012 period resembles a repeat of a narrow steep V shaped curve with only a 7% climb in April 2012 needed to reach the 1500 point in the S&P 500 average at which the previous two booms in prices ended up in a bust. John Taylor, Stanford economist, in a separate op-ed in the Wall Street Journal on March 29, 2012, called for a change in the mandate of the U.S. Federal Reserve for a more rule based policy because of the dangers of repeated boom and bust periods in the U.S. economy as a result of ultra loose monetary policies. The problem at this point in April 2012 is that profits of companies are not expected by analysts to come in strongly in the second quarter, with a slightly improving unemployment picture, expected upward pressures on oil prices from the Iranian situation, eurozone debt problems in Spain and Italy, and slowing growth in China, India and Brazil. These fundamentals do not support an S&P at the levels seen during the height of the last two booms of 2000-2001 and 2007-2008....

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Changes at USAID headed by Rajiv Shah as it makes more room for private initiative of local groups and funding of local groups in countries being helped, and shifting away from handing whole projects to U.S. government contractors. Another change is the harnessing of the efforts of U.S. corporations interested in emerging market countries for introducing their products as part of an aid effort. An example is GE for medical equipment at Nelson Mandela Children's Hospital opening in South Africa in 2016. In countries where corruption is widespread such as Afghanistan, giving money to government ministry creates risks of waste and corruption, a problem which is however part of larger problem of wasted resources in that country. The basic concept of using private initiative and getting the involvement of local groups, U.S. corporations interested in emerging markets at the aid level for their products, taken up by Shah is sound and was overdue. It is already the practice as the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation is doing much of the heavy lifting and large scale aid effort in poor countries of Africa and Asia. Shah worked at that the Gates Foundation before USAID. An example is the Grand Challenges for Development program to get innovators to help tackle problems in poor countries- the Pratt Pouch a small pouch with anti-AIDS drugs not requiring refrigeration was developed at Duke University and could potentially prevent transmission of HIV to 400,000 babies a year. Shah's own background of immigrant parents coming from India gives him a unique insight into how to combine the involvement of the creative abilities of well intentioned Americans at universities and private companies and local groups in poor countries, to leverage the results. He has a medical degree from the University of Pennsylvania....

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Detail about Tata's $2500 car. What it looks like- a jelly bean small in front, larger in the back for aerodynamics, 30-35 horsepower, with bearings good for 45 mph, top speed 75 mph, trunk in front to hold a briefcase and battery, rear mounted engine with continuous variable transmission, a hollowed out steering wheel shaft, engine designed by Bosch 600 to 660 cubic centimetres 35 hp. Tata CEO, Ratan Tata, says in a interview the car will do far better on emissions than today's low end cars, and that the emissions standards were much easier to meet than the crash and safety tests, because of the lightness of the vehicle. Todays lower emissions standards in developing countries makes it easier by not having to use more expensive technologies. Electronic sourcing and internet auctions are used by Tata to a greater degree, 30-40 % of parts sourced this way compared to 10-15% by other larger carmakers. This helps meet the aggressive cost target. On the safety isssue its interesting to note that most of the people buying this car will be millions of motorcycle families and individuals (typically a couple of people can ride an Indian motorcycle). They may be safer in a light car than on a motorcycle. This has to be seen in the particular context of India. Renault-Nissan used the experience of lowcost car engineering techniques and secrets from its Logan car made in Romania and transferred it to its other models. Tata started with a clean sheet of paper, asked the quesion what they really had to have and was there some other way. It was Ratan Tata's dream to build a car in 1 lakh or 100,000 rupees or about $2500. The project had all out backing and tested Indian engineers ingenuity. The Tata effort will be studied by carmakers from around the world. Bosch does not underestimate the value of this business, as the car will target a market of hundreds of millions of people in India and China and developing countries. Ariba a supplier to Toyota, and BMW a supplier to Tata, helped Tata buy parts through electronic sourcing. China's Cherry Automobile company, another pioneer, had an Austrian firm help it design its engine for its small car. Tata worked with German company Bosch on the engine. And both must have used cutting edge technology but with a different goals and specifications to achieve unique tasks....

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Raghuram Rajan, former chief economist at the IMF, and William White, former head of the economics department at Bank for International Settlements, both see the need to raise rates. But expert opinion on the other side sees the need for caution as the economic outlook worsens, and supports ECB and US Fed's efforts to counteract a deteriorating economic situation.

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Jean-Marie Le Clezio is hailed as "author of new departures, explorer of humanity beyond and below the reigning civilization," by the Swedish Academy. This Frenchman loved to explore foreign cultures from North African immigrants in France to native Indians in Mexico and islanders in the Indian ocean. He wins the Nobel Prize for Literature for 2008. His novels include "Desert," about a Sahara woman and her encounters with European civilization, the "Prospector," and others. Le Clezio's novel "Onitsha," is based in Nigeria during the British colonial period. His father was a British doctor with connections to Mauritius where he also lived. He was born in Nice and studied at Bristol university in the UK and spent a year in Nigeria. He now spends time between Nice, Mauritius, and Albuquerque.

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Saudi Arabia and Iran are moving in the direction of taking away repressive rules and giving women more freedom in daily lives. Under Prince Salman Saudi Arabia is changing. Women can now drive in Saudi Arabia. As the role of religion is being reduced in Saudi public life women are now free to live more normal lives. Under new rules women will be able to drive motorcycles and trucks. The Tehran police chief has issued instructions that women be no longer detained if they do not wear proper hijab head covering in public. The two countries are competing with each other to show it is more modern to the international community, say some commentators. Others see the changes in Iran for hijab head covering not strictly enforced as part of the difficulty of enforcing these rules in court, as more younger women do not follow the rules strictly as in the past. Iran now substitutes educational classes in its enforcement, showing the gradual changes in Islamic societies. ...

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Kraft reaches an agreement to acquire Cadbury at 830 British pence per share in a meeting between Ms. Rosenfeld, Kraft CEO, and Cadbury CEO, Mr. Carr. This is about 50% premium over the price of Cadbury shares in Sept, 2009. Cadbury CEO Carr was opposed to the merger of the two companies and stated he saw "no strategic, operational, managerial or financial reason" for the two companies to merge. Cadbury described the Kraft management as one that had unattractive categories and which "under-delivers." In the end Carr was pushed into the deal because hedge funds had acquired about 30% of Cadbury shares in hopes of making gains, creating the danger that Cadbury could end up with a lower offer. The acrimony is likely to make a merger of the two companies difficult and costly. Kraft coveted Cadbury for its penetration of emerging markets, but lacks the experience and talent in this area of its own to carry out a smooth merger of vastly different companies with different focus.

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Toyota CEO Akio Toyoda, grandson of founder Kiichiro Toyoda, assumes new role just as net revenue is down 38% for the second quarter 2009, and a loss of $819 million. Akio says he is extremely frustrated with the situtaion and wants to start again from the ground up. With the restructurings at GM and Chrysler and focussed effort at Ford, efforts of Korean carmakers, and new competition from China and India looming, Toyota expects severe competition in the American and global markets. About 40% of Toyota's senior management has been retired or reassigned.Four of five executive vice presidents are new to their jobs, and only one Takeshi Uchiyamada, the product development chief is left from former CEO Watanabe's team. The outward looking Akio, whose background includes an MBA from Babson college in Massachusetts, and overseas experience including America, is likely to give the relatively insular culture at Toyota, a jolt. Under the new arrangement each of the executive vice presidents has been put in charge of a global region. One of the biggest problems Toyota will face say experts is the mundane looking lineup of vehicles bought mainly for reliability, just as competitors are making big strides in quality and new design, with new technology reshaping what the automobile might look like. The focus on the Tundra truck and SUV's like FJ Cruiser now looks misplaced. Yoshimi Inaba, a Toyota executive with experience overseas, will take charge of the American operations. Inaba says that without N. America, Toyota is unlikely to come back to global proficiency....

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The World Trade Organization is about to choose a new director-general to succeed Mr. Azevedo, a career diplomat from Brazil. The two candidates are a former finance minister from Nigeria,  Ms. Okonjo-Iweala supported by the European Union and the trade minister of South Korea, Ms. Yoo Myung-hee, supported by the U.S. Japan supports the Nigerian candidate because of its trade disputes with South Korea. The role of head of WTO is important today because of trade issues between countries particularly the trade issues between China and the U.S., U.S. and other countries. And the sense that the WTO arrangement is not working for many countries in recent years without a level playing field in many industries from improper subsidies. Before the U.S. withdrawal from the World Health Organization not much attention was given by the U.S. to how it had changed after new elections. As a result non profit foundations like the Gates Foundation from the U.S. played a leading part in representation of American interests and China played a leading role leading to the crisis facing WHO today. During the coronavirus pandemic the WHO lacking adequate influence of U.S. or European Union countries was not able to act in a way that met the needs and concerns of these countries with advanced health systems. In the past pandemics were better addressed worldwide when the U.S. and EU played a major role from the beginning because of long experience and technological resources,  a role that was missing in the current pandemic. Ebola and other virus were tackled in Africa only when the U.S. or European countries played a leading and critical role. This role was sorely missed in the current crisis. This is why changes at the World Trade Organization matter. World trade is important for the world economy and can best operate when the concerns of U.S. and European Union about a level playing field and fair competition are met. This level playing field and fair competition also meet the interests of developing countries such as India which are industrializing rapidly and need to protect their own markets from unfair dumping, as well as Indonesia and other parts of Asia, Latin America and Africa that are part of the supply chain for the world economy. ...

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The stimulus checks in government pandemic aid packages are being spent prudently in the US. Government aid checks were sent out in the first wave since March 2020 and now again in the second wave in 2021. The stimulus pandemic checks are being allocated wisely. A Federal Reserve Bank of New York study shows that Americans saved about 36% of the first stimulus payment checks, 29% was spent, and 35% was used to pay down debt. For the second stimulus payment underway in 2021 this survey also shows Americans are expected to spend even less and use even more to pay down debts. With stores mostly closed, travel restricted, and consumers not having the opportunities to spend, and the sense of insecurity, additional income from unemployment checks, saving has increased. Americans saved $1.4 trillion in the first 9 months of 2020 compared to half that in the same period in 2019, according to analysis by Berenberg Economics. That amount is about 10% of household spending. The tight spending during 2020 means, say economic researchers, that spending will jump in 2021 after the vaccination drive. The trend is positive in that Americans tended not to save enough. People in China and India, tend to save more giving government a larger pool of savings to draw from in national infrastructure spending. In November 2020 Commerce Department estimate is that saving in the U.S. was 12.9%, up from 7.5% in November 2019. Anecdotal evidence shows U.S. savings accounts for people at the lower end of incomes have been depleted for years, hit by the unemployment of the 2009 recession. This was caused by errors by the banking community and business. To this is added people in arts and culture, people in professions involving contact, travel and leisure, food, during this pandemic ten years later. National priorities need to be set to bolster this part of American society and its core social fabric. The steps to bring home manufacturing jobs under Mr. Trump and the "Buy American" initiative under Mr. Biden is just the first step. More steps are needed and the resources, implementation and drive to bring America back to the healthy society of social cohesion and upward mobility aspirations under presidents Truman and Eisenhower in the 1950's. ...

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G-7 nations reach agreement for a global minimum tax of 15% a floor for taxes that the Biden administration finds acceptable. This agreement was reached at a meeting of the Treasury chiefs of the 7 G-7 countries in London on June 5, 2021. The G-7 countries are Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, UK, and US. Next agreement from Russia, China, India and Brazil in the G-20 nations would establish new ground rules for the major economies. The G-20 meeting is in Venice July 9-10. The OECD is steering the international efforts to achieve that goal. For the agreement to be effective a number of small nations that use tax rates of below 15% to attract business have to be part of the new rules. One of these countries is Ireland with a tax rate of 12.5%. For the Biden administration in the US the goal is a significant one as president Biden seeks business to pay its fair share so that long neglected priorities for education, healthcare, infrastructure, post pandemic improvements can be met. France and other nations in the EU face similar needs in the post pandemic environment. By setting a floor the Biden administration is both creating a new cultural concept of fairness in taxation and making it possible to finance the $2 trillion spending programs for these priorities of president Biden. Behind this are important facts that have left the large tech businesses paying little or no tax depriving governments of the very revenues that are needed for infrastructure and services for a modern well run state. The Biden administration seeks to include the tech businesses as well as all businesses in the new tax rules so that a uniform idea of fair taxation applies across the whole economy for the first time in two decades. In this way it makes up for the missed opportunities in the OBC administrations of Obama, Bush, Clinton that have led to loss of faith in the state and institutions in the US. A similar situation prevails in the UK,  France and Germany where previous administrations failed to address this important issue of fair taxation and financing infrastructure and priorities in health, education, and critical needs of the people.   ...