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Election expert Karl Rove from the Republican Party goes over the math for the nomination for upcoming Republican primaries in New York, followed by primaries in Delaware, Maryland, Connecticut, Rhode Island, and Pennsylvania. He says the anti-Trump movement would still be in the lead at the end of these primaries. His figures are that Trump stands at 743 delegates on April 7, 2016, citing the Associated Press, and the non-Trump delegates at 897, ahead by 154 delegates. In New York primary of April 19 only 14 of the state's 95 delegates go to the winner, the rest are given three for each of 27 congressional districts. two to the winner and one for the second place finisher as long as the winner is less than 50% and the second place candidate has 20%. Delaware has 16 winner take all delegates, Connecticut and Maryland have 28 and 38 winner take all by congressional district, Rhode Island 19 proportionally. Interestingly Pennsylvania is cited by Rove as having only 14 statewide winner take all delegates, with 54 officially unbound congressional district delegates, contrary to popular impression that it is winner take all state wide. The elections in South and North Dakota, and Nebraska, give Cruz some of the delegate offset to control the gap in delegates between him and Trump created in the northeastern states. A factor in the race is also the change in the Cruz campaign made for Wisconsin where Cruz was able to win by 14 percentage points by expanding his message to Jobs, Opportunity and Growth from the social conservatism message that did not counter the Trump message to conservative and working class voters on the economy and trade. Another factor is women's vote trending away from Trump. ...

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Changes that are ocurring in Pakistan that are different from what was seen in the past. Pakistan's elite appears to have lost touch with ordinary Pakistanis. The country is becoming more Islamic in its thinking. America is now cited as the biggest threat for Pakistan in Pew Research and Gallup surveys by close to 60% of those surveyed. India is seen as much less of a threat, less than 20% see India as a threat. Over 10% see the Pakistan Taliban as a threat. Pakistan may be looking more inward now than in the past. In the past India dominated the military's thinking. Now it is concerned about too large of an American footprint in Pakistan, and may be encouraging the perception that America is a threat to Pakistan's having nuclear weapons. Pakistan's failure to invest in education, a budget for the military that takes a disproportionate share of resources, lack of investments in infrastructure continue to affect Pakistan. Female literacy is low, at about 40%. Support for democracy is not strong because of poor governance. Democracy in Pakistan is distorted by the large landowning families dominating Parliament. And the two main parties are dominated by the Bhutto and Sharif families. Only 42% of those surveyed said democracy was the best form of government in the Pew poll. Both the military and civilian governments have failed to make wise decisions that would bring opportunities to ordinary Pakistanis. Too much of the nation's resources were wasted in costly conflicts with India, and involvement in Afghanistan, which have not done much for Pakistan. In this situation Pakistan and Pakistanis continue to struggle along with no clear direction, but somehow make things work. A pullback from conflicts in neighboring states and focus on improving the lives of ordinary Pakistanis requires some far-sighted leadership....

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Richard Portes of the London Business School provides two good reasons why the EU's decision to adopt the French Banking Federation's proposal for rollovers with 10% interest costs is a serious mistake. It doubles the interest costs from 4-6% to 10% with 2% Greek GDP growth and makes debt servicing untenable. Portes says the real Brady Plan from the 1980's included a 35-40% bondholders haircut. Deals of this type have a precedent- in Mexico in 1988 and in Argentina in 2001 such bond exchanges were soon followed by deals that placed bondholder haricuts on creditors. The lesson from Latin America in the 1980's, says Portes, is that the burdens of servicing a debt of such proportions under onerous conditions only extinguishes the enterprise, investment and productive capabilities of the particular country trying to service that debt, making the debt even less serviceable. See the Wall Street Journal's editorial on this deal which it calls "The French Deception." The terms sound like Greek to the editors leaving a sense that French banks are only saying "gimme." The only benefit achieved may be putting off the problem and avoiding contagion to Portugal and Spain. Yet this is not that much of a benefit when one realizes that the problem has not gone away, and is likely to look much worse six or nine months from now....

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The 25% auto imports tariff goes into effect April 2nd 2025. How much will it increase prices in the US for automobiles? The average is about 10%, say some experts cited in WSJ. This includes price increases on higher priced brands such as German brands BMW's and Audis, Mercedes Benz, and VW cars made in Mexico to ship into the US. It also includes European car makers including Stellantis that make cars in Europe and Mexico to ship into the US which could lose market share to American car makers who make most of their cars in the US. Ford makes 80%, GM 60%.  Overall US international Trade Commission in 2024 looked at the 25% US tariff in a study and showed 5% increase in auto prices in the US. President Trump's call to GM and Ford asking for restraint in pricing may be coupled with the government returning some of the money in tariffs revenue pool to American or foreign manufacturers investing more to make more cars in the US including to Hyundai which announced a $21 billion investment. More such investment decisions are expected from Japanese automakers. For example Subaru has capacity for 450,000 cars in Lafayette Indiana plant and sells 650,000 cars in the US. One would expect it to increase the capacity of the plant or add a new plant in the US. The Japanese government and Japanese business will have additional incentives to invest in the US because of the US support for Japan in the Asia-Pacific, US openness to give trade benefits to Japan in the post war period, incentive to make the Republican DJT plan for tariffs to work as a united Japan-US effort. This would include restraint on pricing.  Toyota is in much better financial shape than VW and has a large market share in the US which it will work protect with pricing restraint and more US investment. Only VW and German luxury car makers BMW, Mercedes may not cooperate. Yet VW sells only 300,000 cars in the US compared to 2.3 million for Toyota. BMW and Mercedes sell luxury cars where buyers could absorb the additional luxury brand cost without impacting inflation overall. Some of VW's car sales would be absorbed by American and other automakers considering VW was losing market share and nearly exiting the US market. before this. ...

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The Obama first family and its many mulicultural faces from Kenyan, Indonesian, Chinese to African American and White abolitionists from Missouri. Truly a new face of the American continent. About 25% of white Americans have interracial marraiges and nearly half of all black Americans belong to a multiracial family, according to estimates made by Joshua Goldstein of the Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research. What it does is wake one up to the reality, the changes that have already ocurred in the country which most people had not realized. With Blacks, Hispanics, Jewish people, Asian Americans, the 25% of whites in interracial marraiges, recent immigrants, white women, and white males making up this mosaic of cultures and communities that makeup America. And the geographical mix is also just as varied, with the west and the northwest and the midwest and east having a bigger share of this mosaic than the south and the mountain states. Whites in interracial marraiges tends to breakup the traditional white protestant insular demographic. On the religious side there is a breakup of the traditional white demographic with Irish Americans especially those in the east tending to move away from the traditional white protestant insular demographic because of their own particular historical and cultural narrative. The Obama story is one of tapping into these different demographics and changing faces of America at the right time, when the conservative southern demographic, represented by the Bush family, combined with related demographic groups in counties and neighborhoods around the country had lost popular support from two wars and a failing economy....

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The Japanese yen surged in value following the 2008 financial crisis as it was seen as a safe haven. As a result the Korean won declined by 42% against the Japanese yen. This continued till 2012. Japanese companies had to compete overseas at 80 yen to the dollar and shifted operations overseas. Now with the policy of monetary expansion of the Japanese central bank the situation is reversed in December 2014. The Korean won is up 40% against the Japanese yen since 2012. The Japanese yen is now down to 118 to the dollar in Dec. 2014. Abenomics gets a new mandate with the snap election in Dec. 2014. Aaron Back says Samsung may have gained ground in televisions and smartphones but other areas in electronics such as chips, displays and image sensors remain competitive and responsive to price. In autos Hyundai market share has declined to 4.4% by Dec. 2014 from 5.1% in 2011, according to MotorIntelligence.com. So far Japanese companies have used the currency advantage to improve profits and come up with better products. By using profits to invest in new technology and productivity Japanese companies can provide more features at the same price points to gain market share without having to cut price. After years of declining margins in electronics, autos and other markets this appears to be the current strategy. Another reason for this is that Japanese companies have already shifted production overseas, the shift being higher for Honda than for Toyota. Technological improvements from investments in R&D in Japan can be transferred to manufacturing operations overseas just as Apple is doing with smartphones manufacturing in China. The currency shift also improves Japan's position relative to American and European competitors in international markets....

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Iran's financial collapse cause- Shutting down of Ayandeh Bank with $5 billion in bad loans and printing of money to cover bad loans by Iran's central bank. A lending mechanism was started by the central bank to give loans to well connected private banks that serve a small sliver of the population without collateral. This money was wasted and loans turned into bad loans which the central bank covered by printing more money. The result inflation of over 40%. 

The protests reflect financial distress, and deep discontent among ordinary people.as the money has gone to a well connected elite. 

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Susie Dent on Vocabulary in decline in UK ( and the US) as screen time takes time from learning new words. “There is a huge perception that screen time is having a negative impact on vocabulary, and I think that’s because it is taking away from reading time. The digital lives of our children are taking a greater and greater role and reading certainly is in decline." Dent cites a 2023 Oxford University Press report that 40% of children had fallen behind in vocabulary development. She says there is areal danger that vocabulary development is suffering for children and that this impacts learning for children.

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Japan release of 80 million barrels of oil from about 470 million in its total oil reserves for emergencies- March 18 2026. It gets 90% of its supplies from the volatile Middle East and little has been done about this leaving Japan in a situation similar to Germany when it under Merkel allowed an over dependence on Russian oil. The Nordstream pipelines built at cost of billions to transport Russian oil to Europe are now remaining unused after the Ukraine war in its 5th year. 470 million barrels or 254 days of reserves cannot support the Japanese economy in wars that stretch out over longer periods. 

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The 10 year Greece government bond yield was 9.183% on May 14, 2013, according to Tradeweb, declining from a high of about 30% during the peak of the eurozone financial crisis in 2011.

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By September 2009, says the NYT based on a state by state analysis of Labor Department numbers, 1 out of 4 persons in California will either be out of work or just working part time. At this time in July 2009, 1 in 5 persons in California are in this situation. This would mean a 25% unemployment/underemployment rate in California, and the rate in Florida, North Carolina and Washington could reach 20%, by September 2009. This spring the unemployment/underemployment rate reached 23.5% in Oregon, 21.5% in Michigan and Rhode Island, and 20.3% in California. In Tennessee, Nevada and some other states that rely heavily on manfacturing or housing, the rate was just under 20% this spring, and may have since passed that number. And so far only $90 billion of the stimulus has made it out the door according to Moody's Economy.com. From now until the end of 2010, an additional $25 billion or thereabouts will be spent every month. In most of the Great Plains States and the Mountain West the unemployment/underemployment rate was still below 12% in spring 2009, and in North Dakota as low as7.8%. But these states are getting adisproportionate share of the stimulus fund, which shows that the allocation of stimulus funds needs to be adjusted. Who are these parttime workers and how many are there? Take Richard Smith and his wife Lyn. They left Michigan where he worked for GM and Ford in white collar jobs till he was laid off. Mr Smith moved to Charlotte, N. Carolina last summer. He hasn't found full time work after sending in hundreds of applications. He now works a few days aweek at agolf shop, repairing clubs and making $9.50 an hour. With the help of that money he has bought abargain-basement foreclosed house. Part time workers like the Smiths comprise about one third of the 20% unemployment/underemployment rates in states like Michigan and Oregon, so the rate for those who are completely out of work is around 13% in these 2 states....

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Bill Pulte at FHA - $200 billion mortgage bonds purchases to reduce interest rates below 6%. 2 DJT executive orders to cut red tape in housing construction and asking Federal Reserve to be strong in housing markets. The goal is to ease supply in housing markets and reduce mortgage rates to reduce costs of getting a new home.

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Research done by the WSJ shows people who sped time on fitness and are older are happier. More females than males by a wide margin. Community involvement rates are higher and faith in God is seen in people who are happier. Aaron Zitner shows the lives of 3 people including an 80 year old who ran a health clinic for 25 years who find happiness through community involvement and many projects including one that cut ten pregnancy in her county and is now writing grants to restore an old YWCA building in Cortland, N.Y.

A 77 year old civil engineer on a 7 acre farm in Chesapeake, Virgina, has good relationships, community involvement, and the same house for a generation, whose belief in God helps him be happy and find serenity in life.

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Polls just days before the French presidential election show independent candidate Macron getting about 60% of the 18-24 year age group. There is discontent in this age group because of high unemployment. The unemployment rate is 24% for people below age 25, higher than 18% before the financial crisis of 2008, compared to 7% in Germany for this age group. For people 25 to 29 years it is 14%. This is why Marie Le Pen has appeal in economically struggling northern towns. Yet most French people are finding it difficult to take on an agenda as radical as Le Pen's that takes France out of the eurozone. In the final debate just 24 hours before the vote Le Pen entered into a discussion about leaving the eurozone but showed she had no clear idea of what this would mean for France. She described Brexit as an example and Macron shot back that Britain was never in the eurozone to begin with, and it appeared that Le Pen was just hoping that it would all work out, without a clear grasp of the facts. She had no response to Macron on how an exit could create panic in the markets and lower the value of savings of ordinary French people by about 20%. On pensions she stated that 60 was the age for retirement under her plan opening herself up to the criticism that she had no clear idea of the facts as Macron pointed out- that it would mean lower benefits or higher payments into the retirement system. This may be why even some young people who see the banking experience of Macron as a liability, may be offset by others who see this as a possible asset because of the need for some valuable experience in an independent candidate, as described by Dalton.    ...

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Fiat divided itself into 2 companies on Jan 1, 2011, to separate its car and truck businesses. Fiat SpA covers the car operations. Fiat SpA CEO Marchionne, says Fiat could lift its stake from the current 20% to over 50% if Chrysler decides to go to the stock market in an IPO in 2011.

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IMV architecture for rugged vehicles and the Hilux brand of vehicles for emerging markets, are two favorable factors that Toyota hopes will generate half a million more sales than the old Hilux line. Toyota has spent $1.4 billion on building plants in India, Indonesia, Argentina and S. Africa and other countries to develop the new vehicles with new chassis, engines and other parts made in developing countries. These plants say chief engineer Hoskawa help reduce costs by 20-25% for the Hilux line of rugged vehicles with new chassis. But a port strike in India which makes the manual transmitssions, and a problem at the plant in Indonesia which makes gasoline engines- which are then shipped to plants for assembly in South Africa and Argentina- could cause problems. To cushion against such events Toyota keeps 2 weeks supply of engines and other parts in Thailand.

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P&G's plans for additional 4000 job cuts after the 1600 already planned for the 2012 fiscal year. This move and other actions including changes to its advertising budget are expected to generate cost savings of $10 billion by 2016. The nonmanufacturing workforce will be reduced by 10% by 2013 for annual savings of $800 millon by fiscal year 2014. $1 billion in savings comes from moving to digital and other forms of advertising. $6 billion in savings would be generated from less costly packaging materials and supply chain efficiency improvements. By using concentrated forms of detergent products less packaging will be needed. Anaysts say P&G's cost structure compares poorly with competitors- with 31.5% of revenue going to selling, general and administrative expenses, compared to 28.1% for household product companies. At the same time as these cuts are made, P&G plans to add 20 new plants in Brazil, China, S. Africa and Poland.

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Wessel describes the changes in American manufacturing as it goes through some of the same changes that happened in Germany in the years after reunification. With high unemployment German manufacturing companies worked with unions and the government for wage restraint over the last decade, resulting in wages barely keeping up with inflation. The increase in productivity and wage restraint helped Germany become more competitive with factories in Asia and Eastern Europe. Wages are now increasing with larger wage increase negotiated by the unions in Germany, as skilled labor is becoming scarce. In the U.S. Labor Department figures show an increase in output per hour in American manufacturing of 13% in the last 5 years and 21% in the five years before that. Typical of the wage changes in manufacturing- American Axle & Manufacturing plant in Three Rivers, Michigan hires assembly workers at $10 per hour, with older "legacy workers" making $18 per hour. General Electric brought back manufacturing work from Mexico paying workers $13 per hour for new hires, compared to to $21- $23 in prior years. At GM, Ford and Chrysler workers make $16-$19 per hour in base pay compared to older workers with legacy rates of $29-$33. The Bureau of Labor Statistics shows earnings for production workers in manufacturing averaging $19.15 per hour in April, which is where they were in 2000 adjusted for inflation. The impact of this large increase in productivity with new machinery and production methods, and the wage reductions in manufacturing, is a return of offshored jobs. Wages increased in China and Mexico in the last decade. After a 35% decrease in the number of manufacturing jobs in the U.S. from 1998-2010, the number of jobs has increased by 4.3% to 11.9 million in April 2012, according to the Labor Department....

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Activity in downtown San Francisco remains at about a third of prepandemic levels, with remote work having caught on for tech companies during the pandemic employees are there for only half of the week. Office vacancy rates are 28% for downtown. In a strange twist Silicon Valley that led the shift of manufacturing to China and ignored that this led to loss of tax revenues for the towns across America, and decline of these towns that lost factories, is now facing the same situation in its own backyard. Office based industry provides three quarters of San Francisco tax revenue, and faces a $780 million deficit for the next 2 years. Mentally ill on streets near a Whole Foods, and dealers in Fentanyl, homelessness, lead to closing of a Whole Foods store in downtown San Francisco. Thomas Fuller and Sharon LaFraniere provide this report in WSJ of the situation in downtown San Francisco in 2023. Reports from California show the failure to build enough housing during the tech boom for the average American, and apartments for homeless costing hundreds of thousands of dollars and years behind schedule. The mayor is looking for tougher laws to put mentally ill off the streets. There is no consensus on action. Tech investors people hope for another Tech boom to tackle the situation, yet tech companies are retrenching and face government scrutiny even breakup. Even a speeded up effort to add 20% of the housing stock of the city of San Francisco by adding 83,000 apartments from Mayor Ms. Breed would take 8 years.  ...

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There is a major shift in world opinion among major countries in Asia and Europe and North America moving negative by double digits in Pew research surveys. The shift is gradual and negative in Germany, France, Spain and Italy, and steeply negative in Sweden, Denmark, Britain and the U.S., Japan and South Korea. The people with negative views of China in world affairs are also the people who believe China did a bad job in handling the coronavirus.  In Australia in one year alone there is a 24% increase to 81% of people who see China unfavorably, in Britain this is a 19% increase in one year to 74%. In the U.S. the shift is over 4 years by 20% to negative views for 73% viewing China unfavorably or negatively. The shift in Canada is similar to the U.S. The biggest shift is in Japan where 86% view China unfavorably and Sweden where this is 85% after China handled Swedish relations poorly. See the color graphs in the original article in DW.com by clicking on original article here in Lyrarc.com. It is rare to see the such a dramatic shift in public perception of one country. The handling of the coronavirus by China in a way that hurt all countries with lack of transparency and total cooperation normally seen in pandemics and the cost in poverty and job losses, economic losses has resulted in a massive loss of confidence in China, and in the leadership of Xi Jinping. Most public opinion in these countries now believes that Jinping cannot be trusted to do the right thing in world affairs. ...

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The end of another long war in Asia that started in 1979 with Soviet forces followed by American forces- the war lasted for 44 years in a country of mountains with 38 million people. Just as with the Vietnam war that started in the sixties under president Kennedy and ended in the mid 1970's, yet even earlier than that in the 1950's with French colonial forces. That war lasted 25 years. It achieved little in terms of ideology as market capitalism now prevails in China and Vietnam. What it achieved was a single Vietnam under nationalist forces led by the Communists under Ho Chi Minh who was a student in Paris when the Versailles Treaty was signed in 1918, when he called for self determination in Indochina. That war had a parallel in the war from the 1930's to 1949 between Mao's communist forces and first the Japanese, then Chiang's Nationalist forces. The war in China lasted 20 years.  This ends a long chapter of anti colonial and anti western wars in Asia that covered most of the 20th century and the early part of the 21st. Asians are weary of wars just as much as the wars that divided Europe. Americans and Europeans have much to do to rebuild their economies and improve life in their countries. Asians have much to do to build infrastructure and a better life for their people. China, India, Indonesia, Vietnam and Japan have much to do after the pandemic.     ...

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When the coronavirus spread in China it was expected that Taiwan would be affected badly. Yet Taiwan has managed the situation in a number of ways that has limited cases to 50. Health experts attribute this to quick preparation and early intervention. After the 2002 and 2003 SARS epidemic Taiwan setup the National Health Command Center (NHCC) to combine resources for managing a health crisis. This was to prepare for the next crisis. Taiwan acted early imposing a ban on travel to China, Macau and Hong Kong, and a ban on the exporting of surgical masks to keep a stockpile in Taiwan.  Taiwanese government integrated data from national health insurance with immigration and customs data. A program was developed  that allowed people to report travel histories and symptoms by scanning a QR code when they arrive in Taiwan. Travelers receive a text message with their health status that allows customs officers to focus on the ones requiring attention. The public's willingness to follow government regulation is now much higher after the difficulties caused by the SARS crisis. This makes them willing to follow more readily action taken by the government, as SARS memory is still fresh in their minds. Investments in public health systems and in biomedical research is much further advanced than in other countries. A research team at Academia Sinica has developed antibodies that can identify the protein that causes coronavirus, The aim is to shorten the test time for diagnosis to 20 minutes. The lead researcher Yang says the next step is to validate it before turning out a rapid test kit. ...

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Decades of investment in car manufacturing and EV's is paying off for China. It now exports 5.7 million cars of which 1.7 million are EV's. EV exports are twice that of Germany. Car production capacity in China surged as the Chinese market expanded to be larger than Europe and the US combined. The production capacity is twice the size of the domestic market- 40 million gasoline cars from 100 factories.  As domestic sales have slowed down there is a push for exporting this excess capacity. The US and the EU are imposing tariffs on Chinese cars to protect their domestic manufacturing. The push to become a leader dates back to premier Wen Jiabao 20003-2013. Wen chose Audi engineer Wan Gang as minister of science and technology, and gave him the task of making China the leader in electric vehicles. Manufacturers were given subsidies, tax breaks, cheap land and electricity. By one estimate the EV manufacturers and battery makers in China received $230 billion in subsidies since 2009.  This is one reason the EU and the US are imposing tariffs to protect their domestic manufacturers. As the shift to EV's continues in China- half of the cars in 2024 EV's- the gasoline models are shipped overseas. China has now replaced the western brands in Russia with it's gasoline models.  China makes great savings in batteries as it controls the supply chain in batteries. It makes EV's at 30% lower cost with these efficiencies. ...

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The CBO annual report on the budget and economic outlook shows a deficit of $1.1 trillion for the current fiscal year, a decline of $200 billion from the prior year. Health care spending is a key factor driving the deficit. Cost of spending on healthcare programs is expected to double in the next 10 years, increasing by 8% a year and reaching $1.8 trillion in 2022.