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British prime minister Theresa May calls a surprise general election for June 8, 2017, with the hope of winning a new mandate for Brexit negotiations larger than the slim 17 vote majority in the House of Commons. Experts say the disarray in the Labor Party improves chances of Ms. May winning a large parliamentary majority. A YouGov PLC poll shows Conservatives at 44% support, Labor at only 23% and Liberals at 12%.

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Infratest Dimap polling institute is commissioned by DW.com to find out what Germans think of the refugee policy of chancellor Merkel one year later. In summer 2015 Merkel said on Aug 31, "We can do it." Costs related to the refugees are about $17 billion, do Germans think services are overstretched for education, healthcare housing and other services. On the other side German society is aging and for every 100 unemployed people there are 200 open positions for skilled personnel. But the refugees who are accepted do not have the skills required and have to acquire the skills or given training and education. On this issue DW.com asked the question whether it will strengthen the German economy. About 51% agree and 45% disagree on this question, and about the same number agree and disagree on the question that Germany will be overstretched providing the services for housing, education, healthcare and other services. The higher educated and young are more favorable to accepting refugees, with those over 50 and basic schooling unfavorable. On the AfD side most people are unfavorable, and in the Greens party most are favorable. On terrorist incidents probability, over 58% think this is more likely, 38% disagree. On the question of whether this will make Germany more diverse 56% agree, 40% disagree. Overall the situation appears to be balanced, with a range of views expressed, and the positive and negative sentiment "evenly balanced", says DW.com.  ...

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DW.com has this exceptional story on the elections in France through the pictures drawn by cartoonists in French newspapers. As polls show Macron with over 60% of the vote, cartoonists reflected on the situation of a new president with little experience and his "en marche" movement only one year old, looking at it with skepticism. Cartoonist Antoine Chereau shows a common person reflecting on the situation, with the title Macron leads in the first round, the person says that after being deceived by the right and the left, the French are now choosing to try out deception from the centrist. Loic Secheress shows Macron at the steering wheel of a car, with the title the second round Uberized, two passengers in the back saying they do not want to go right or left, and Macron saying- then alright we are going straight into the wall. On the Socialists splitting the vote between Hamon with 6% and Melenchon with about 20%, instead of putting up one candidate and heading into the runoff,  cartoonist Plantu shows Hamon and Melenchon riding one bike in opposite directions, with the title - the losing machine. Cartoonist Soulcie drawing for Le Monde shows a tour guide in front of the Louvre museum pointing to the pyramid architecture in front of the museum and saying- here are the last remains of the socialist civilization. Allan Barte's drawing looks at the elections as another disappointing experience for voters. He shows two voters in front of posters of Marine Le Pen and Macron, one saying I hadn't realized what the expression really meant until now, and the girl next to him says "election piege a cons," meaning "elections are a trap for idiots" used in the May 1968 street protests in France. ...

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This review of Acemoglu and Robinson in the MIT News is relevant to the situation faced today. The two professors at MIT and University of Chicago, have provided two books relevant to today's crises, the first "When Nations Fail" in 2012 about the need for inclusive nations, and the second "The Narrow Corridor" about the importance of the role of individual and society in sustaining democracy. Their point in the first book "When Nations Fail" in 2012 coming after the financial crisis caused by banking excesses stated that the nations fail when they are not inclusive.  In practice it is about " the system being rigged" to favor some groups as the Republican party and Mr. Trump say has happened. The banks and lobbyists, pharmaceutical industry and lobbyists, tech industry and lobbyists, leading to a system where individual and society are pushed into a corner. Social theorist and economists fail to look at things in practice such as profit seeking behaviours and unethical behaviour that goes unchecked, which continued after the financial crisis into the election of 2016, with charges of rigged systems.  This week Germany's DW.com oped pages covered New York with the statement that treatment in New York costs $15,000 for coronavirus infection illness yet many New York residents in the worst affected neighborhoods would find a $500 expense difficult to bear. Early closing of schools to control infection rate was resisted by Mayor De Blasio of New York because many parents depended on schools for lunches for their kids. The situation had been allowed to deteriorate to that level.  In their second book the MIT authors are saying that the role of the individual and society are important to check that of the state (for example if it is perceived as being rigged by the influence of lobbying of legislators and politicians as the Republican party and Mr. Trump have maintained). It is only when it is checked and there is some tension is there the possibility of democracy and democratic processes, say the two MIT authors. In the absence of this the states and elites of politicians and business interests supporting the leaders and their common behaviours, become a perpetual state, in effect a one party rule of two parties with similar behaviours and interests in the state. A situation that allowed the outshoring of American manufacturing and European manufacturing to China including critical infrastructure, essential infrastructure over 2 decades even over the protests of Mr. Lighthizer since 2010. As the twin crises evolved in Europe of austerity policies after banking excesses in Europe, and the migration crisis of migrants coming from North Africa and the wars in the Middle East, a similar situation began to develop in Europe as the political elites entrenched in Germany, France, and Spain faced new voices. The tensions that arose were constructive bringing in the role of society and individual that the MIT authors say are so necessary for the narrow corridor of democratic process to function. New parties emerged in France with Macron's La Republique En Marche, Podemos and Ciudadanos in Spain, and in Germany with the SPD and CDU shrinking till the revival of Merkel for her handling of the pandemic. Coming from an intuitive way born from experience in East Germany, Germany's recent president Joachim Gauck, civil rights activist  came up with the same ideas. He is a Lutheran pastor in former East Germany who struggled against the government of the German Democratic Republic (former communist East Germany) for a role for individual and society against the state. We profiled and quoted him in "The Way Forward"  column in Lyrarc.com. Gauck's point was that  having diverse groups in the conversation is important, not excluding others from outside in the conversation is important. Gauck called  debate "the oxygen of democracy,"  that needed to be maintained.  Genuine democratic process is hard to sustain, it happens only when the role of individual and society is given prominence, so that only a narrow corridor exists for democracy, a narrow space in which can be sustained only if the effort is there, the goodwill is there, and the grace of Divine Providence.  It is fragile and it is critical to sustain.   In this sense the sometimes heated debate in the U.S. and Europe, Asia and Latin America about words such as- austerity, community, solidarity, migration, New York Mayor De Blasio's choice between school lunches and infections, about infrastructure, pharmaceutical prices, infrastructure, outshoring, jobs sent overseas, manufacturing locally, made in USA or made in India or made in France, Atmannirbhar Bharat, misallocation of capital starving health and public services, are all relevant and essential for democracy. This includes the discussion to avoid use of the military in protests in American cities in the middle of a pandemic which just crossed the 2 million mark in cases in the U.S., that was taken up by Defense Secretary Esper. In it lies the hope for democracy and many voices. Der Spiegel recent look at the pandemic how it happened in China, closes with the line- you need more than one voice in society. A constant reminder that many voices be heard, counseling patience, but also that wise choices be made with divine providence.           ...

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Roland Nelles gives 6 reasons why chancellor Merkel is likely to run for chancellor in 2017 and do well. Nelles says the alternative is a Greens, Left party, SPD coalition as in Berlin. But the rest of Germany is too conservative and the very idea of that coalition could bring conservatives together behind Merkel, including the CSU. It would give CDU voters second thoughts about switching to the anti-immigrant AfD party. Also important he says is that the immediacy of the refugee issue could fade as the German government better handles the refugee situation, including security, housing and integration. And as the agreement with Turkey is holding for controlling flow of refugees and turning them back. Also compared to SPD Merkel is still 8-10 points ahead in polls today says Nelles, so that there are still many Merkel supporters. In addition to what Nelles says, Strack in DW.com points out how Merkel's openness even showing emotions sometimes, about how the refugee crisis caught her and the German government unprepared, could help her in coming months. ...

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The low voter turnout helped protest parties such as the National Front in France and the Independence Party in Britain. The average across the EU was 43% turnout, with turnout in Britain at 36%, Slovakia 13%. Renzi in Italy led the Socialists there to 40% of the vote, and Merkel's CDU got 35% of the vote in Germany. The UMP came in second with 20% of the vote to Marie Le Pen's National Front's 25%, and Hollande's Socialists at 13% in France. In Britain the Independence Party won with Labor and Conservatives in second and third place. There are deep misgivings in Britain for Jean Claude Juncker who is the candidate for EU President from the centre-right European People's Party, which has 213 seats in the 743 seat parliament. Misgivings stem from whether Juncker can deliver on promises for a EU without much of the bureaucratic tendencies for Britain's 2017 referendum. The German SDP party's candidate is also contesting the election for EU president. Next come the centre-left parties of Socialists and Democrats with 190 seats. In the past EU president was chosen not by parliamentary election but by government leaders....

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Germany's Federal Criminal Police (BKA) says its online tip portal is hit by hackers in a denial of service attack. The site was restored to normal service shortly afterwards. The tip portal was for the public to share video and text on clues to the attack.

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Emmanuel Macron graduated from Sciences Po University in 2004 with a degree in public affairs. He joins the Finance Ministry as an inspector and then buys himself out of government service contract by 2008 to join a private bank. He arranges an acquisition from Nestle and other business deals during this period. In 2012 he is appointed as deputy secretary general for the president's office after Francois Hollande a socialist is elected to the presidency. In 2014 he is offered the position of Minister of Industry and Digital Affairs in the second Manuel Valls government. He makes some changes to French government but opposes the wealth tax or tax on business, and is generally pro-business, though he acts as a member of the Socialist party.  He uses this period to build momentum for his own run for the presidency as support for Hollande falters having lost support from his working class base with Macron and Valls inspired changes.  Macron finally announces he will run for the presidency forming his own En Marche movement which he finances with his own fund raising. Throughout this period right up to the election in 2017 Macron has not run for public office. When he wins the presidency in that year he lacks the experience needed as the youngest president in French history at the age of 39. Like another young president Obama he handles his public image with the media for his En Marche movement promising to unblock France. This public image and his lack of experience makes him impervious to the social changes going on in France that lead to the yellow vest protests in 2018. This is a period when there are changes in the midwest as workers in Michigan and other midwestern states turn away from Hillary Clinton and Obama.  French workers are in the position of workers in the US with the decline of manufacturing, much of it shifted with the supply chain to China and Japan, and the gap opening between rural and urban tech educated areas. Macron follows Obama's quick rise from Senator to run for president yet lacks experience, and lacks sufficient grasp of the social changes with loss of manufacturing, the wide gaps between rural and urban tech educated people, conditions in the rural and farming areas. Macron survives this period, is reelected in 2022 with the help of socialist Melenchon voters. He says he will govern differently, less distant from average Frenchmen, but his instincts are to push for pension reform. At a time of cost of living crisis, and when the French budget office says the change in pension from 62 to 64 was not critical at the present time when inflation was hitting the public after the pandemic. Macron does this by Article 49 in the way he has done under the Manuel Valls government, by executive action alone. This time he faces a no confidence motion in parliament in March 2023 following some of the largest protests France has seen in years, with two thirds of the French according to FR24 opposing the change in pension law. Women see this as coming at a time when age discrimination hurts their chances of earning a living after 50 years of age.  Age discrimination is widespread in France, in a way it is not in Germany, say reports in the NYT. And with the cost of living crisis acts as a major hurdle for the average French person, if pensions are delayed without addressing these cultural issues in France. The result is that the protests have substance and Macron is seen as not sensitive to this at a time when he lacks a majority in parliament. ...

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Becky Branford of BBC News gives five reasons for Emmanual Macron's win in the French presidential election. She cites experts who say Macron was lucky, had a canny ability to see the timing was right for a new party to be formed so that socialist voters had an alternative. His luck comes from the failure of Republican centre right party Fillon to mobilize right wing voters following reports that he had hired his wife and children for government jobs. Yet this is not a complete explanation. Macron had the intuition that something was happening in French politics and the courage to act on it early, the youthful energy to take up the challenge of a mass movement. The events were the declining popularity of the socialists, and the fragmentation of the left wing, the uncertain prospects of the Sarkozy effort at comeback because of his image from years in power, and the need to counter growing far right support for the National Front- to do this by offering an alternative in the centre. From that one courageous decision things from that point fell into place as the Republican party also failed to attract strong public support.  A mere 24% of the vote enabled Macron to enter the second round. Macron's grasp of the economy and conviction helped him win the final debate with Le Pen decisively. His sense of his own mission to revive the idea of Europe sustained him against attacks from the far right, including the late cyber attack on his emails in the last 24 hours.  Macron could still have prevailed over Le Pen without the strong campaign for staying on a positive message and confidence in his ability to turn France's economy around. Yet without a margin of victory of this size in the face of abstaining voters from the far left, Macron as president would not have looked the same. The next step is parliamentary elections in June, and governing France with a turnaround plan requires winning a majority in parliament of sufficient magnitude that he can implement a program which makes the French economy as competitive as Germany's. People forget that Germany was considered a economy with high unemployment and not as competitive under the Schroeder administrations that preceded Angela Merkel, this includes the French with the layers of pessimism. Emmanuel Macron deserves credit not for winning, but winning with the idea of Europe, and it has done as much for him from the French people who have put their faith in Europe when the chips are down, as he has done for Europe already. How this helps put a turnaround in the economy in place is that he will have the energy and enthusiasm of Germany behind him, as well as the energy of French industry and young people to do what Germany accomplished in the 2000-2010 period to emerge from years of high unemployment with a strong economy. ...

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This report in DW.com shows the coverage in German media of the election of Droupadi Murmu as the president of India. She is the second woman and the first person from a tribal community to be elected president. She worked as a school teacher and was elected to the state assembly in Odisha (Orissa) in eastern India twice. She served as the governor of Jharkhand a state with a large tribal community in eastern India from 2015. About 27% of Jharkhand population is tribal and much higher in rural areas because over 90% of tribal people live in the rural villages. Murmu is from the Santhal tribe that is spread over several northeastern states. Most of the tribal population of 106 million people in India is in the northeast, east, some in the west, in border states with China and Pakistan, and in these parts of India it makes up as much as a quarter of the population or higher. This is why a new India requires better educated, good governance dedicated tribal leaders who can contribute to development under sab ka vikas sab ka prayas, development for all through everyone's efforts. ...

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Pocketbook issues are taking increasing importance in the French election on April 24. Greg Ip of the WSJ says inflation has risen in importance more than immigration, the war in Ukraine, and other issues related to Islamist separatism. About 45% cited purchasing power as the main issue in a BVA poll, and this is even higher for people who voted for Jean-Luc Melenchon who came within 1% percentage point of Ms. Le Pen in the first round. Greg Ip says that in economic issues France has done better than Germany, Italy or the UK. Unemployment is at 7.4% the lowest since 2008. Economic output has risen more than in Germany, Italy or the the UK since Mr. Macron took office. And one study shows disposable income has risen higher under Macron than under predecessors Hollande and Sarkozy. France also spent heavily to tackle the Covid pandemic's effect on workers and companies. Ip says Macron's efforts to liberalize labor markets, simplify taxes and wage bargaining and make training programs more effective could be the reason. Youth unemployment is the lowest in nearly 40 years, and the number of apprenticeships doubled from 2019 to 2021, according to BNP Paribas. Pisani-Ferry, economist at Sciences Po says compared to past performance the French economy did much better. Le Pen has promised to cut the value added tax to tackle inflation's effect on voters. Macron has said he will be flexible when it comes to raising the age for retirement and pensions and calls Le Pen's lowering the retirement age creating problems for the solvency of the pension system and highly unrealistic.   ...

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Showing how much the Social Democratic party in Germany needed to show progress on key issues Martin Schulz of the SPD was ordered by the party to bring up contentious issues in negotiations relating to social cohesion. One was the two tier system in healthcare where some are able to pay for more privileges in the nation's health care system with private insurance and others are in the public health system. The other issue is the ability under current German law for companies to issue 2 year temporary contracts. The SPD party did badly in the last elections because working class voters do not see it fighting hard enough for worker rights and ensuring an equitable system.On the health issue a commission will look into how the system can equalize medical fees between people privately and publicly insured. On the employment issue companies can only terminate without cause in 1.5 years instead of the 2 years. Small compromises, yet in long negotiations with a 24 hour session for a breakthrough and everyone exhausted, the snail's progress over 13 days and one night worked to set up a new coalition after all. Still one hurdle remains- getting the SPD membership to vote yes even though its youth wing is opposed. ...

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The first signs of a change in Germany's position to promoting growth in Greece came when German chancellor Angela Merkel told CNBC on May 15, 2012: "I have the will, the determination to keep Greece in the euro zone." She added that if Greece's leaders are looking for "stimulus to be pursued for growth in the euro zone, which we could pursue in the interest of Greece, we're open for this. Germany is open for this." The Social Democrats, SPD opposition leaders have long said that Merkel is able to change positions as the situation changes. Looking back she even disassociated herself from her mentor German chancellor Kohl when he was not willing to disclose the names of donors for illegal donations. This has given her the flexibility that another Christian Democratic party leader Schauble lacked in leading Germany. She has also seen poll numbers favoring the CDU dissipate quickly before the 2005 elections and is aware how quickly situations can change, as is happening now with the public in France, Netherlands, Spain, Portugal, Ireland, Greece, and eastern european EU countries growing weary of strict austerity policies pushed by the CDU. A faction of the CDU pushed for strict austerity policies at the recent CDU convention in Leipzig, Germany. Merkel told the CDU about charges that she had shifted on a number of core issues such as nuclear energy, social issues, minimum wage, and euro zone bailouts- "Our political compass has not changed. The context is changing. This is a time of epic change."...

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The EU summit under the presidency of Germany completes its task for setting up the European Recovery Fund and providing nonrepayable aid to countries hardest hit by the pandemic that would otherwise have to spiral their already high debt levels to unsustainable levels or provide little assistance to their suffering public. These countries include Italy, Spain, Greece mostly in southern Europe. Also needing aid are eastern European countries Hungary and Poland. For the first time the European Union is jointly taking on this debt of nonrepayable aid to member states most in need. This is a historic step. The Dutch prime minister, almost ruined the solidarity of Europe with his continual effort to cut the amount of funds and place conditions. The Dutch have favored austerity in Europe but at what cost and at what does it say about the Dutch in Europe. Reports show the Netherlands have gained back billions of dollars that would have gone in taxes to the governments of France, Spain and Italy by setting up tax haven. The Netherlands population 17 million, Sweden population 10 million, Denmark population 7 million, together make up less than half the population of any one of the major countries of Europe, Spain and Portugal, France, Germany, Italy. The combined population of about 350 million people in southern, eastern, and western Europe was arrayed against these 34 million northern countries in the long negotiations, that show solidarity but are also a sign of the changes in Europe as these countries in northern Europe were always guided by their own personal or country interest. Rutte fought hard because of elections he faces a second time against the far right wing parties, for a second time since the 2017 election. It could not get more personal than that. Even Britain if it was still in the European Union is likely under Boris Johnson to have reversed policies of Cameron to support solidarity in Europe and aid for recovery, considering how the government has tackled the pandemic in Britain. Setting conditions would only go part of the way is the reality today. The bigger part of preventing mismanaging of funds comes from the individual experience and hardship of people in southern European nations of Italy, Greece, Spain and other countries after the missteps in the eurozone finances in the last two decades. This provides the necessary dose of internal financial discipline. Not acting quickly in solidarity today would have been a serious mistake for Europe. Still Mr. Rutte and the Dutch have cut the European Recovery Fund's nonrepayable aid by 110 billion euros from the initail target set by Macron and Merkel of 500 billion euros. The agreed target now is $390 billion euros. ...

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Under a deal made between Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy and the Ciudadanos party in Spain, the ruling party agreed to back measures to tackle corruption and ensure an independent judiciary. Public officials being investigated for corruption will be suspended from office. Selection will be done by members of the judiciary for 12 of the 20 board members previously elected by parliament that appoints judges and prosecutors. Wage subsidies are introduced for low income families and cuts in public spending for health and education are restored under the agreement,  which includes a program of 150 measures. The combined vote of the two parties get it to 169- 137 for the Partido Popular and 32 for Ciudadanos- and with the aid of a Canary Islands party to 170. The Ciudadanos party will not participate in the Partido Popular government but will vote in its favor. This is still short of the 176 votes needed in the 350 seat parliament. Rajoy could have a second term only if the Socialist party allows some members to abstain. As this is uncertain Spain faces the prospect of an election in December 2016. ...

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Workers at the VW plant in Chattanooga, Tennessee voted 712 to 626 in Feb. 2014 to reject membership in the UAW union. This makes it more difficult for the union to make inroads in the Southern states. In an unusual step VW- cooperating with the IG Metalls union in Germany- let union organizers into the plant for over a week and cooperated with the UAW to setup the election. VW wanted to setup a works council, a committee of employees which gives management feedback for running of the plant, similiar to ones operating in Germany.

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BBC's Europe Editor Katya Adler talks to EU officials and gives this assessment of how the situation in Britain after the elections looks from the European Union. The elections in France with pro-EU Macron winning with a large majority, the increasing support for Angela Merkel in Germany, the drubbing for the Five Star Movement in Italy, all point to increasing confidence in the EU, and willingness to let Britain sort its mess out while the EU focusses on more pressing issues. Adler calls the first day of talks on Brexit a Mad Hatters Tea Party, showing how Britain is seen in the EU as having a huge complicated mess to sort out. British politicians are seen from the outside as having ruffled up the electorate on migration, the European Court of Justice and other issues, just to make their own points and for their own ends, not necessarily having the best interests of Britain in mind.

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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...