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US antiship missiles Nmesis are placed in the Philippines islands to protect parts of the Pacific region in 2025. During the period of US engaged in wars in the Middle East under Bush and then Obama, the US Navy lost time and China built up its Navy. The lack of foresight of US business and focus on profits of firms like Apple shipping manufacturing to China meant loss of the manufacturing knowhow as other companies followed Apple for 2 decades. The result is that it takes long lead times for the US to build the ships the US Navy needs, a repeat of the situation the US faced with Japan by 1935 when the US was focused on tackling the Great Depression under FDR. At that time at a Naval Conference in London in 1934 the Japanese walked out rejecting the Washington Naval Agreement of 1924-25 that limited Japan to 60% of the US and British Navies ships tonnage. By 1941 the Japanese Navy was its main reason for its efforts to control Asia. FDR who had been Secretary of the Navy was not far behind so that America launched its own efforts in 1937- in an 18 month period 1942-1943 the US destroyed the Japanese Navy and protected China, India, from the worst Japanese Kwantung army elements that ran the government leading to 14 million lives lost in China. ...

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Republicans have supported less regulation. After the 2009 financial crisis with faulty mortgages and excessive leveraging one would expect that there would be a shift among Republicans favoring necessary regulation of banks. This did not happen after the Obama administration failed to articulate a new culture after 2009 and lost control of Congress in 2010 by as much as 64 seats in the House 6 in the Senate, and in all demographic and income groups. The result was that the 2009 crisis changed some laws but not the culture of laissez faire that less regulation was better for the economy. It is left to president Biden to tackle this problem of culture and the Silicon Valley Bank clearly shows that the parts of the Republican and Democratic parties that support less regulation even where the regulation is essential for a good economy for workers and families, are self serving. No where is this culture of laissez fairre in its other manifestation in not planning for the US manufacturing base to be strengthened by government action more evident than in the way it has prevailed to turn a blind eye to not just sending manufacturing overseas, but over concentrating it in one country China with additional supply base from Japan into China. This is the challenge that the country faces- only if the culture or mindset changes will laws have the needed impact.  This report in the NYT shows that when president Trump appointed Randall Quarles to vice chair of banking supervision in 2017, Congressmen both Republicans and Democrats believed that less supervision was better for the economy. Democrats such as Congressmen Barney Frank were themselves part of the new culture when Frank joined Signature Bank's board in 2015, one of the banks that along with SVB bank caused the banking crisis of 2023. Its association with risky crypto assets is considered by the WSJ as being one reason the government decided to close it. Frank did not see this aspect of its risk insisting that the bank was in sound condition.  This culture is also manifested in its approach to the cost of living crisis and support for workers and families. The Biden administration sees the problem of culture and of clearly making the changes that create a new culture, and a new understanding of what is right for America, for its economy and for its role in the world, and best for its people.   ...

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Japanese Dads are taking on a bigger role and changing parenting. BBC Future shows this story about Japanese dads from a new generations that are taking on the joys, difficulties and responsibilities of parenting.  A new kind of superhero in Japanese manga comics is Ikumen, a Japanese term (from ikuji for childcare) for young dads actively spending time with their children compared to an earlier generation of fathers who spent most of their time at work, and rarely took on family responsibilities. During the sixties and seventies as Japan emerged from the wartime recovery and modernized Japanese culture defined men's role to spend most of the time at work, even getting allowance for spending from their wives who controlled the family budget.  In 2010 the Japanese Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare started the Ikumen project to increase paternal involvement in child caring. This was a major cultural change and was part of the change in culture needed for the Third Arrow of Japan's Abenomics project to get women's participation up to western country levels. Today the women's participation rate in workplaces exceeds that of the U.S. Even in the 1980's men spent on average about 40 minutes with their children mostly during the family meal in the evening and even had to have their wives find their clothes. The common saying was - "jishin, kaminari, kaji, oyaji," earthquake, thunder, fire and father, remote and given respect. Women's reaction was not positive as they postponed marraige for later, then even not marrying at all for the next generation, leading to reduced childbirth rates. The Ikumen project projected fathers in a masculine role of heroes for taking on parenting, like the t-shirt logo "Strength for Society" portraying them as saving society, saving the  country. About 45% now support the idea of "men should work, women should stay at home" compared to 60% in 1992- drop of 15%. The statistics do not quite tell the story because during this period women participation in the workplace has jumped to western country levels as part of Abenomics Third Arrow to revive the economy. The problem that is still being tackled is that of bosses in the workplace who lack awareness and discourage taking paternal leave which has risen from 2% to 7% in five years 2012 to 2017. ...

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Researchers Rauh and Novy-Marx, estimate that states in the U.S. have pension shortfall of as much as $3.4 trillion, and the municipalities have pension shortfall of $574 billion. Seven states are expected to exhaust their pension assets by 2010, and half will run out of money by 2027. Several states have promised annual payments of 30% of tax revenues after their pension funds are exhausted.

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This article in the Economist describes the different perspectives on the Greece crisis in July 2015 as seen inside Germany. It cites a poll showing German 51% to 41% favoring a Greek exit from the eurozone. About 85% reject further concessions in a July 1, 2015 poll, including 68% of the supporters of The Left, a post-Communist party. Social Democrats leader Sigmar Gabriel, said of the Greece timeout from the euro proposal by finance minister Schauble- that it was the appropriate thing to consider all options. And 78% polled see Greeks not keeping their side of the deal. Some experts see stronger sentiment about Greece after the events in July 2015, and the raising of the issue of the debt haircut given to Germany in 1953, because Germans see themselves as having gone to great lengths to build a strong Europe after their own troubled history in the 20th century. If the goal was to win German support in 2015, this has come across as poor tactics and poor strategy, considering how it has changed German opinion across the spectrum of political opinion....

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The water situation on the Euphrates river. Three reporters for the NYT, Amir, Mohammed, and Abeer, join NYT's Campbell Robertson in talking to farmers along different stretches of theEuphrates river in Iraq, near Jubaish, Karbala and where it meets the Tigris. The causes of the problem are the water policies of TUrkey and Syria which are the upstrema countries and have built dams along the river which control its flow, a two year drought, and water mismanagement and neglect in Iraq. The river is significantly smaller now, and at this rate could be half of what it once was. It affects rice and wheat fields along the river which are turning into scorched dirt, canals becoming small streams, and water treatment plants sitting idle. The area for wheat and barley in the rainfed north is down 95%, and the date and citrus orchards in the east are dry. There are no treaties for water use with Turkey and Syria, so the situation is unpredictable. Recently Turkey doubled the waer flow into the Euphrates, a mover that increased water flow to ablut 60% to cover half the irrigation requirements for the rice growing season....

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The Obama administration is pushing for new U.S. fuel efficiency standards of 56.2 mpg by 2025. In May 2009 President Obama announced domestic car and light truck fuel efficiency standards of 35 mpg by 2016. Europe is expected to reach fuel efficiency of 60 mpg by 2020. This would still leave Europe considerably ahead of the U.S. in fuel efficiency for automobiles, but the gap would be much smaller. For the last several decades the U.S. has fallen sadly behind Europe and Japan in fuel efficiency. The perception of poor fuel efficiency hurt the automakers badly during periods of high fuel prices and when buyers were facing difficult economic choices. The automakers are beginning to grasp this fact. Mark Reuss, president of General Motors, commented that- "it's very challenging, but its upto us engineers to provide high value to the customer and support the environment." This is an issue that has serious national and global implications as it affects the future prices and demand for oil, emissions, and future economic growth. It would also bring the U.S. in line with Europe and Japan when it comes to fuel efficiency of automobiles. ...

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Daniel Altman's proposal for a tax on wealth over $1 million. He makes the case for taxing wealth not incomes to reduce inequality as this is where the situation in terms of inequality has worsened for the U.S. in recent decades. To support this proposal Altman cites the change in the U.S. Ginni coefficient, which measures inequality. The Ginni coefficient is anumber from 0 to 100 which goes up with higher income inequality. From the late 70's to the 1990's, the Cnesus Bureau showed this to be in the low 40's. By 1992 the Ginni coefficient went up to the mid-70's, according to the Federal Reserve data. It increased to about 80 in 2010. In 1992 the top 10% in the U.S. population controlled 20 times the wealth of the bottom 50%. By 2010 this figure triples to 65 times. and the graduated income tax even if it redistributes a small share of the wealth does little to affect the trend of wealth extremes from building up and threatening the social fabric of America, reducing mobility and opportunities for the bottom 50% to unprecedented levels since the 1950's. ...

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Wal-Mart is expected to announce the sixth quarter of declining same store sales in the U.S. By raising prices on some items and reducing prices on others Wal-Mart moved away from Wal-Mart founder Sam Walton's pledge to provide the best prices. Walton built Wal-Mart by promising to transfer much of the benefits of Wal-Mart's sourcing of lower priced goods to customers. The "high-low" technique in pricing is just the opposite of the everyday best price of Sam Walton. In recent years Wal-Mart has lost its touch with its core customer base by trying to attract upscale customers with trendy products and organic foods. The core customers have always been the U.S. households making less than $70,000 a year. This made up 68% of its business. Now this business is under assault by discounting chains and dollar stores. To reduce clutter in its stores, Wal-mart reduced the amount of goods carried from different suppliers, alienating some suppliers. Ironically the new pricing strategies and store design to reduce sprawl came from John Fleming, a former Target executive who became Wal-Mart's chief merchandising officer. Management changes led to Mr Fleming's departure....

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A "Melt Up" rally in the U.S. stock market. A "Melt Up" rally is one that has precious little to do with economc fundamentals. Investors act in a herd mentality, in a mad rush by investors, after a late realization that there are gains to be made. The Standard and Poor's 500 stock index went up 63% since its March 9, 2009 low, and is up 22% for 2009. Yet a lot of money is still in low yielding fixed income assets. Three month Treasury bills yield 0.03%, and a negative yield where investors actually pay the government to safeguard their money. In January, $4 trillion were in money funds, they were recently at $3.339 trillion, according to Investment Company Institute. And this could lead to more money going into stocks, but some of it could go into emerging markets first. And the smart money may see the melt up continuing, as a sign to pull out. In any case without economic fundamentals, Farzad of BW, sees a multiyear bull market as remote, or ending up similiar to the meltup in early 2007 which ended in late 2008 with a market collapse....

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Audi faced similiar problems of unintended acceleration incidents that Toyota faces today. A "60 Minutes" segment by Ed Bradley in November 1986 showed Audi owners of the Audi 5000 sedan who said the cars suddenly accelerated. That show even showed an Audi 5000 moving on its own which later was shown to be due to an altered transmission for that shot. Even when it was shown in a 1989 government study that blamed driver errors especially because of the close placement of gas and brake pedals. This led to the report's recommendations to move the pedals apart, and install ashift lock mechanism which required a foot on the brake to shift the car into drive. Audi ran newspaper ads showing these findings but consumer fear had set in. It took Audi many years to recover, From 1985 to 1991 Audi U.S. sales dropped 84%, hitting a low of 12,000 annually and not reaching levels from before the crisis till 2000. Audi, a division of Volkswagen, is now expanding in the U.S. but the story has lessons for Toyota. This may explain why Toyota was quick to refute a story in ABC News on the acceleration issue. ...

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Fiat's third auto manufacturing hub in Eastern Europe, after Poland and Turkey, is in Serbia. Fiat is investing 700 million euros together with the Serbian government in the old automobile plant at Zastava. In Tito's Yugoslavia under the socialist system this plant manufactured the Yugo automobile. About 220,000 cars were manufactured here with 16,000 factory workers in the 1980's. The Yugo was based on the Fiat 127 model in 1980, and the relationship with Fiat goes back to 1954. After the war following the breakup of Yugoslavia the plant was partly destroyed and it recently turned out 15,000 Punto hatchbacks a year under Fiat license. Fiat Automobili Srbija, is a new joint venture formed in Dec. 2009, with 67% ownership by Fiat and 33% by the Serbian government. About 1000 employees of the 2600 at the plant were brought back and another 1433 will be hired to start production. Wages in Serbia are about 300 euros a month, and the Serbian government plans to make the country a manufacturing hub with special incentives. Plans are for 200,000 cars in 2 models to be made at the Zastava plant in 2011-2012, with 100,000 more planned in subsequent years....

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The U.S. Federal Reserve Flow of Funds report for 2011 shows Fed purchases of 61% of total net Treasury issuance. Goodman points out that the net issuance of Treasury securities for covering U.S. budget deficits is normally 0.6% to 3.9% of GDP on average for the last six decades since 1950, compared to on average 8.6% of GDP today. A big jump in Fed purchases with a corresponding steep fall in the participation of foreigners and the private sector. Foreign purchases declined from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 1.9% of GDP in 2011. U.S. private sector- mutual funds, banks, corporations and individuals- purchases declined from 6% of GDP in 2009 to 0.9% of GDP in 2011. This helps keep interest rates low and funds U.S. government needs. Lawrence Lindsay pointed out in the WSJ in 2011 that Fed has itself boxed in being forced to keep interest rates low for years. If the government borrowed at a more normal rate of 5.7%, instead of the Fed induced rate of 2.5% today, Lindsay estimated the U.S. government would face an additional $800 billion in interest costs by 2021....

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U.S. Federal Reserve governor Daniel Tarullo tells the Council on Foreign Relations that so much remains to be done four years after the financial crisis. The law firm of Davis Polk says 67 percent of deadlines were missed for new rules required to be set in place by the Dodd-Frank legislation, including the Volcker Rule. Tarullo said: "It is sobering to recognize that more than four years after the failure of Bear Stearns began the acute phase of the financial crisis, so much remains to be done." Tarullo fears that crucial momentum may be lost because of the long delays stemming from resistance by the banks. Tarullo met with bank CEO's in April 2012. Banks have protested that Fed stress tests have not revealed the parameters for the testing. Tarullo's response given at a recent Fed conference in Chicago were that this would let banks game the exercize by running the Federal Reserve model and not improving risk management and capital planning, making this a mechanical compliance exercize. Banks have particularly opposed a requirement that limits the risk in business between two banks to 10% of their credit risk....

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Mr Iksil, a trader in Chase's CIO London office made such massive bullish bets on CDX-IG-9 index of 121 companies by selling credit default swaps, to the point where it cost less for protection on the index than for the individual components of the index. This worked in Jan-Feb 2012 with hedge funds on the other side having paper losses. In subsequent months hedge funds realized that Iksil would have to unwind some of these bets to avoid large losses. As a trader at Bank of America put it in a memo, at that point "Fast money smelled blood." The result is that hedge funds accelerated their bets against Mr Iksil's bullish positions, leading to the large $2 billion losses at CIO unit of Chase- losses on depositors money from aggressive bets in a volatile market. Mr Iksil is a French born trader, who has worked for Chase since March 2007. He has earned $100 million each year for Chase. He travels to London from his Paris home each week, and works from home Fridays. Two junior traders work with Iksil, primarily placing bets for complex trades in credit markets....

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After an initial period of a year Japanese companies are now making the move to pull back some of the production shifted overseas with the yen at 80 to the dollar. Canon made 40% of its product overseas in 2009 before the shift to 60% by 2013. Now it is shifting production back home to reach 40% overseas production. Other consumer electronics companies Panasonic, Sharp, Daikin, are shifting production back to Japan. This is similiar to the shift back to the U.S. of products made overseas as costs have risen in China and other Asian countries. The sharp swing in exchange rates is accelerating the trend. Auto companies Subaru, Toyota, Nissan, Honda are continuing plans to manufacture close to customers in the U.S. Shorter product cycles make it possible to shift production for electronics companies compared to longer product cycles at auto companies. Murata Manufacturing will continue to make smartphone parts close to its customers in China, lifting production overseas from 14% to 30%. As a result exports have increased in Nov. 2014 by 10.8% from the prior year and imports up 2.2%, according to the Finance Ministry....

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ECB president Mario Draghi tells a newsconference on April 14, 2015, that the bond buying program is "proceeding smoothly." He said that he does not see scarcity in the bond market. The ECB plans to continue its purchases of government bonds and other debt at a rate of 60 billion euros a month through September 2016. He said the program of very low interest rates for a very long time "is fertile terrain for financial instability imbalances," but he did not see evidence of systemically large financial imbalances at this time. The ECB approach would be to tackle the risks by using its power as a bank regulator, not by changing monetary policy, said Draghi. He was optimistic about the initial results, saying "more accomodative monetary policy is being translated into better credit conditions, which is something we have not seen before." The euro is down to $1.06 and low oil prices have helped improve economic conditions, as well as ongoing structural reforms pushed by the EU and ECB. Draghi's forecast for economic growth in the eurozone is now up from 1% to 1.5% for 2015....

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This editorial in the WSJ after Jeb Bush's opening campaign rally, says his candidacy livens up the field because he could act as someone who brings the country together compared to other candidates who would act as polarizing figures- Hillary Clinton, Rand Paul, Ted Cruz, and others. It gives high marks to Jeb Bush for his two terms as governor of Florida, and says the only governor coming close for the last 20 years is Mitch Daniels of Indiana. And it says the Republican party needs someone who can attract non-Republican voters if it is to win in 2016, which means taking states like Florida and swing states Colorado and Virginia. It cites as a plus Jeb Bush having a nearly 60% approval rating in Florida when he left office. On immigration and other issues affecting the middle class Jeb Bush has the potential to act as a unifying force in the country. His goal to achieve 4% growth, after the 2% growth in the Obama years, will be needed to improve the prospects for the middle class and working class people in the U.S., after the damaging effects of the 2008 financial crisis....

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Facebook has invested heavily in proving that digital ads on Facebook are effective. Some of the research was done with Datalogix and other firms. About 60 ad campaigns were carefully tracked to show how consumers seeing ads on Facebook spend their dollars on products in brick and mortar stores. One ad with cuddly bears for Coca-Cola was more effective than ads on television, says CEO Sandberg. In addition to targeting users based on what users share in their Facebook profiles advertisers can now see the effects on sales. Facebook's vice president of measurements and insights, Brad Smallwood, says advertisers were given the first big report on how consumers acted after seeing ads in the real world. The results are most evident in digital advertising for mobile phones. Facebook has 6% of the $118 billion digital advertising global ad market compared to Google's 31%. The share in mobile is 18% in 2013, up from 5% in 2012. Facebook shares were up 14% or $7.55 to $61.08 on Jan. 30, 2014. Facebook's share price increased by 20% in July 2013 after a similiar announcement of improvement in mobile ad revenues. Facebook's IPO price was $38 in 2013....

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China's new urbanization plan is for 60% of the population to be urban residents by 2020, up from 52% at the end of 2012. The plan will relax "hukou" residency restrictions, and about 45% of the population will qualify for benefits and services such as pensions and education that are given to qualifying urban residents. Premier Li Keqiang says this will boost growth as domestic consumption is seen as the main growth driver for the future. The cabinet said on a government website that "domestic demand is the fundamental driver of our nation's economic development, and urbanization has the greatest potential to expand domestic demand." Fast rail will be provided to urban areas with population over 500,000 and rail to urban areas with population over 200,000 by 2020. About 90% of the population will be within reach of a nearby airport. Relaxation of "hukou" restrictions will be made for mainly smaller cities. Two decades of industrialization has led to concentration of wealth, with much smaller disposable incomes left for the majority of the population to create a sudden surge in consumer spending, as pointed out by Orlik....

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According to U.S. Senate investigators Apple recorded $26 billion, 65% of its income worldwide for 2012, in Ireland. Ireland Operations International is based in County Cork, Ireland. Ireland has about 4% of Apple's worldwide workforce. Laws in the European Union allow digital companies such as Apple and Google and other large companies to pay little in taxes through such arrangements. Apple CEO Cook says Apple is not using any tax gimmicks. Apple negotiated a low 2% tax rate with the Irish government. The Senate hearings in the U.S. and a meeting of EU leaders has raised concern about this practice being allowed at a time when much needed infrastructure investments are being shelved in the U.S. and Europe because of budget deficits. Spending cuts in education and in R&D hurt long term economic growth. Government statistics show the average Ireland tax rate on gross income of companies in 2010 was 6%. Ireland has a low corporate tax rate for companies of 12.5% which it retained after EU pressures to change the rate when the Irish bailout was provided. Ireland has 4000 Apple workers, and 600 American companies employ 100,000 Irish workers....