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Martin Caparros describes the deadlock in Spain with no two parties on the right Ciudadanos and Partido Popular, and on the left, Podemos and the Socialist party, able to have enough seats i parliament to form a government. An agreement between Ciudadanos and Partido Popular of prime minister Mariano Rajoy, has brought the 2 parties close to 170, 6 short of a majority in the 350 member parliament. New elections will have to be held for the third time in December 2016 as a result of this impasse. The two main parties in Spain the Partido Popular and the Socialist party, alternated in forming a government during the period since the restoration of democrati government after Franco's dictatorship. Following the deep recession in Spain since 2012 two new parties have been formed Podemos on the left, and Ciudadanos a centre right party. Both parties are critical of corruption, and the cuts in spending for education and healthcare following the financial crisis in Spain and bailouts by the European Union. Caparros describes the cynicism that voters express about not just the two main parties, but also for Podemos and Ciudadanos, as voters voice their rejection of politicians and parties on the left and the right. A similiar process is taking place in other countries, in Britain most recently with Brexit and the departure of prime minister Cameron. In the U.S. with the Sanders and Trump movements, and the Beppe Grillo movement in Italy.  ...

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Cillizza points to two demographics that the Republicans missed in the 2008 and 2012 U.S. presidential elections. The Hispanic vote comprises 10% of the electorate. Obama won this demographic with 69% compared to 29% for Romney. Romney's extreme positions, to the right of Governor Rick Perry of Texas got him through the Republican primaries but left him exposed in the national elections as he defended his statements of support for "self-deportation." In this respect Reagan, Bush, Perry adopted moderate positions and favored helping children of immigrants get a good education so they could be integrated into American society. Perry even took a hit for his moderate position supporting immigrants in the primaries even before his memory slip in a debate. Romney failed to support even the Dream Act for a pathway to be given to children of immigrants supported by Mark Rubio, a Cuban-American Republican senator of Florida. The second key demographic is the young people vote ages 18-29. This was 18% of the electorate in 2008, and about 19% in 2012. Obama took this demographic with a lead of 34 points in 2008 and a lead of 24 points in 2012. So that even with diminishing support such large numbers meant there was a large cushion to win the election by combining several demographics even if the Democratic position eroded somewhat because of the economy and unemployment at near 8%. This is what happened because of the 6 out of 10 voters, or 60% of the electorate who voted, Romney won 51% to Obama's 47%. This enabled Obama to get the small victory margin he needed in the popular vote. In many ways Romney was "an unnatural candidate" as the Wall Street Journal described him in its editorial, being a private equity business executive fighting a election with Democrats fighting to protect middle and working class interests....

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Former German chancellor from the SPD party, Gerhard Schroeder, is interviewed by Rayond Zhong of the WSJ. Here he describes his views on the way Agenda 2010 was implemented in 2003 in Germany to gain public support for changes to Germany's welfare state. He also talks about the eurozone crisis and how Angela Merkel has handled the crisis, and the right approach for an Agenda 2020 for Europe. The interview was made at Schroeder's law office in Hannover, Germany. This is a detailed and exceptional interview by Zhong covering all facets of the eurozone crisis and Germany's response. Schroeder says it was right to give Greece more time to make the reforms, so that the Greek people could see that this path would help in a positive way. In doing this he cites his own experience when as the reforms for Agenda 2010 to make Germany more competitive were taking place- including cuts in spending and lower taxes- he turned down his finance minister Hans Eichel's proposal in 2003 for an additional 20 billion euros in cuts to put Germany in compliance with EU law....

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This Wall Street Journal editorial calls for more transparency in disclosing bad debt problems at Spanish and other European banks. It faults recent and upcoming stress tests of EU banks for not being stringent enough and taking into account adverse scenarios. While Spain's central bank says only 20 billion euros are needed to recapitalize the cajas savings banks, other estimates are much higher. Moody's country report says Spain could need upto 120 billion euros to recapitalize its banks. A big problem is European banks exposure in Spain which is over 700 billion euros as of September 2010- Spanish banks have high exposure in Portugal and German banks have high exposure to Spain.

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A Washington Post Univision poll in Feb. 2016 shows 8 of 10 Hispanic voters with a negative impression of Donald Trump, and 7 of these 10 having a "very unfavorable" impression of him. The poll shows Trump's standing with Hispanic voters deteriorating, with a Univision survey in summer 2015 showing 7 in 10 with a negative view, and 6 in 10 "very unfavorable." This is in line with Trump's increasing anti-immigration rhetoric and calls for a wall at the border paid for by Mexico, upping the anti-immigrant rhetoric in 2016.

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Us efforts led by Piedmont Lithium in North Carolina to build supplies for the lithium needed in electric vehicle batteries. The effort to get the first US big new lithium mine into operation is part of a broader effort to  build a US supply chain for the ultra light lithium metal that is highly conductive. In fact the modern lithium mining industry started in the rolling hills of the Piedmont region in North Carolina. At that time in the 1950's it was needed for nuclear bombs. Today China mines 10% of world's supplies. Abermarle Corp of the US based in Charlotte extracts lithium from mines in Australia and Chile which have large deposits of lithium. President Biden has signed an executive order calling for a review of supply chains for critical materials, including lithium as the US looks to build its own supply chains and become independent of supplies of metals from China. The lack of such supplies has become a strategic vulnerability for the US.  The growth of the electric vehicle industry and the efforts to reduce climate change emissions means higher demand for lithium. ...

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With the drop in Brent crude to $67.53 on Nov. 28, 2014, for a drop of 13% for the week, the ruble takes a further hit. The ruble declined to 52.67 to the dollar.

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This report by Goodman in the NYT shows that the ANC has lost most of the moral authority it had under Mandela. After 9 years under president Zuma, and after the term of his predecessor Mr. Mbeki from 1999-2008, South Africa remains stuck with stagnant economy, and about two thirds of young people in the townships being jobless. The challenge is how to change the economy to where growth is generated and benefits go to a broader section of the population. Problems the new president Ramaphosa faces are how to change the protections given to conglomerates that dominated the economy under Apatheid, and the patronage network that evolved with the ANC in the post Apartheid era. Growth performance of the South African economy is dismal. According to the World Bank the South African economy in 2016 was about the size of the economy in 2009. Many warnings about the economy and the operation of the state run electric utility appeared during Mr. Zuma's presidency, including one by former president De Klerk. Growth in 2018 is expected to be only about 1.1%. The economic gains by the largely black population have suffered with lack of growth and mismanagement of the economy. Official unemployment is at 27%, with about two thirds of the young people in the townships being jobless.  ...

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Barley says Greece's debt buyback plan in Dec. 2012 is attractive for private investors. Earlier some private investors had bought Greek debt at 10-15% of face value. Greece now has 10 billion euros, including 0.5 billion for accrued interest to buy back Greek bonds at 32.1- 34.1% of face value. This should help Greece retire 28 billion euros face value in Greek debt, reducing the debt burden by 18 billion euros The IMF had pushed hard in negotiations for reducing Greek debt as a percentage of GDP by 2020 to levels where it could again access private markets. This is critical to making the Greece bailout work. Nomura estimates this will reduce Greece's debt by about 10% of GDP by 2020. Every little bit helps in Greece's struggle to recover financial stability.

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Pharma stocks are in a slump, Pfizer having lost 40% over 10 years, even with reinvested dividends down 25%. For this reason, these stocks offer high dividend yields to attract investors, Pfizer at 6.5% and Glaxo at 5%. Uncertainty about patent expiration, thinning drug pipelines and uncertainty about new President's health care legislation.

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Argentina's presidential election on October 25, 2015, offers an opportunity for new leadership. President Christina Kirchner is limited 2 two terms by the constitution, she served 2007-2015, following her husband who was president 2003-2007. The candidate of Kirchner's Peronist Party, Daniel Scioli, governor of Buenos Aires Province, has 38% support in the polls, followed by Buenos Aires mayor, Mauricio Macri, of the centre-right PRO party, who has 30% support. The other candidate is Sergio Massa, former mayor of the city of Tigre, who leads the Renewal Front party, with 21% support. The election rules require the winner to win 45% in the first round or a 10% margin over the second place candidate, if not it goes to a runoff. Both Scioli and Macri are seen as being new faces with different policies to tackle the country's economic downturn, who would give Argentina a fresh start after the Kirchner years. A devaluation of the peso which has an official peg of 9.4, but trades unofficially at 15, and restoring trust of foreign investors, are some of the problems facing a new president....

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Former Texas Senator Kay Hutchinson, America's new ambassador to NATO, offers this spirited defense of NATO in an NYT op-ed. She points out that when it comes to European defense and need to revitalize NATO there is no difference between president Trump, Rex Tillerson, Gen. Jim Mattis at the Defense Department, and senators of the Republican and Democratic parties. Rex Tillerson, U.S. Secretary of State, made a similar statement by visiting a war memorial in Italy recently. Chancellor Merkel has made similar statements in her visit to the Baltic Republics. Behind the revitalization of NATO remains another goal to spread the burden of defense evenly so that the U.S. is not bearing a disproportionate responsibility.  Here Hutchinson reminds readers that if all 29 NATO members met the 2014 defense spending pledge - to spend 2% of GDP on defense and 20% of each defense budget on modernizing capabilities- $100 billion in defense funding would have been created for 2016. Hutchinson says the European Defense Initiative will be funded with $4.8 billion for strengthening defenses in Eastern Europe. NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg is taking the lead in ensuring NATO funding goals are met. ...

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Mass demonstrations by young people including school children on March 24, 2018, in many U.S. cities called for raising the minimum age for buying a gun from 18 to 21 years of age, and prohibiting civilian ownership of semiautomatic weapons, increasing comprehensive background checks. Former Supreme Court Justice John Paul Stevens says this is not enough. He calls for a repeal of the Second Amendment. Stevens points out that the the framers of the Second Amendment to the U.S. Constitution had the concern that a national standing army could pose a threat to the security of the separate states and therefore made the Second Amendment so that " a well regulated militia, being necessary to the security of a free state, the right of the people to keep and bear arms shall not be infringed." This is now a relic of that period. He says for 200 years this was not interpreted to mean that gun control legislation could not be enacted, till a 2008 decision by the Supreme Court.  Stevens says the decision was wrong and repeal of the Second Amendment is needed.  ...

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Boeing's goal is to make 10 Dreamliners a month by late 2013. The current rate is 2 per month, which Boeing hopes to move up to 2.5 a month by November 2011, and 3.5 a month by early Spring. Boeing CEO, McInerney, says it will take a few years before each Dreamliner turns a profit. He expects this will happen before 2020. The large investment during this decade should see returns in terms of an annuity for 25-35 years, said McInerney. The Dreamliner is the first jetliner to be made largely of plastic-composite materials, in place of aluminium. To build the Dreamliner Boeing had to accomplish what McInerney calls "game-changing innovation," and at the same time achieve improvements in production techniques. Jim Albaugh, head of Boeing's Commercial Airplanes division, says the next step is to take what takes an hour and half to assemble and bring this down to 15 minutes. This will help meet a long backlog of orders. Boeing has 820 orders for the Dreamliner as of Sept. 2011. The first Dreamliner was delivered on Sept. 26, 2011, to All Nippon Airways....

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Spain's finance minister, Luis de Guindos, announced a two year plan in which Spanish banks are required to set aside 50 billion euros for losses on bad real estate and other loans. This is part of the effort to restore the flow of credit in the economy. He told a news conference: "At the moment credit is falling by around 5% or 10%." Banks have been slow in Spain to get rid of bad assets and proceed with a bank cleanup.The provisioning for losses required under the plan is by type of asset- for undeveloped land this will be raised to 80% of value from the 31% used currently, for new homes this goes to 35% from 25% used currently. The idea is to get banks to sell these properties at today's prices and give Spaniards an opportunity to buy these homes as opposed to letting this remain on the bank's books. Banks that merge will be given one year, other banks will be required to do this in one year. The cleanup will make it easier for Spanish banks to obtain financing in international markets, and in turn improve the flow of credit in the Spanish economy. ...

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Facebook has invested heavily in proving that digital ads on Facebook are effective. Some of the research was done with Datalogix and other firms. About 60 ad campaigns were carefully tracked to show how consumers seeing ads on Facebook spend their dollars on products in brick and mortar stores. One ad with cuddly bears for Coca-Cola was more effective than ads on television, says CEO Sandberg. In addition to targeting users based on what users share in their Facebook profiles advertisers can now see the effects on sales. Facebook's vice president of measurements and insights, Brad Smallwood, says advertisers were given the first big report on how consumers acted after seeing ads in the real world. The results are most evident in digital advertising for mobile phones. Facebook has 6% of the $118 billion digital advertising global ad market compared to Google's 31%. The share in mobile is 18% in 2013, up from 5% in 2012. Facebook shares were up 14% or $7.55 to $61.08 on Jan. 30, 2014. Facebook's share price increased by 20% in July 2013 after a similiar announcement of improvement in mobile ad revenues. Facebook's IPO price was $38 in 2013....

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The low voter turnout helped protest parties such as the National Front in France and the Independence Party in Britain. The average across the EU was 43% turnout, with turnout in Britain at 36%, Slovakia 13%. Renzi in Italy led the Socialists there to 40% of the vote, and Merkel's CDU got 35% of the vote in Germany. The UMP came in second with 20% of the vote to Marie Le Pen's National Front's 25%, and Hollande's Socialists at 13% in France. In Britain the Independence Party won with Labor and Conservatives in second and third place. There are deep misgivings in Britain for Jean Claude Juncker who is the candidate for EU President from the centre-right European People's Party, which has 213 seats in the 743 seat parliament. Misgivings stem from whether Juncker can deliver on promises for a EU without much of the bureaucratic tendencies for Britain's 2017 referendum. The German SDP party's candidate is also contesting the election for EU president. Next come the centre-left parties of Socialists and Democrats with 190 seats. In the past EU president was chosen not by parliamentary election but by government leaders....

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Wow!!! While the rest of the industry was busy building large vehicles and trucks and SUV's Honda invested 16 million dollars and its time in developing a hydrogen cell capable of powering a car to get 60 miles per hour acceleration in 9 seconds, and speeds upto 100 miles per hour, cut the size of the fuel cell to 150 punds and the size of a box shaped desktop PC, and giving the fuel cell 280 miles on one fillup, almost similar to a gasoline car. What is different is the cleanness, no polluting exhaust and 74 miles per gallon. Only 200 will be built initially, but a production line and mass production is the goal Honda is working on. Already the fuel cells are built on a production line resembling a semiconducor factory, and Honda aims to bring the cost of production down to $100,000 in 10 years or sooner. The nice thing about hydrogen fuel cell cars is that there are no byproducts generated except water and heat. It works by the fuel cell combining hydrogen with oxygen from ordinary air to make electricity....

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The Chinese 90 seat regional jet called the ARJ21 made by government run AVIC I Commercial Aircraft Company has about half of its equipment supplied by US companies. Its maiden flight is Septemeber 21. Canada's Bombardier is investing $100 million in the larger version of this plane citing parts sharing and cost saving potential for its own jets. The Chinese market is expected to grow at about 9% annually according to Boeing's forecast. China will spend about $600 million on the program for ARJ21 according to Chinese aviation officials. The ARJ21 also called the Flying Phoenix has 206 of the 300 orders it needs to breakeven. The plane is targeting the high altitude airports and the lightly travelled routes of western and central China. China is also looking to sell the plane in emerging markets of Malaysia, Turkey and India. According to General Electric China will need at least 500 regional jets over the next 20 years. GE which makes the engines for the ARJ21 sees the 500 jets equal to engine orders of $15 billion. Other companies that are looking for supplier orders are Parker Hannifin, Goodrich, and Mitsubishi....

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AP VoteCast shows over half of Americans and 8 in 10 Trump voters think support for transgender rights in government and society has gone too far. About 90 of Republicans, half of Democrats, and two thirds of Independents think support for transgender rights in government and society have gone too far. The situation about allowing transgender persons in women's locker rooms offends most women. Abortion rights is an issue for two thirds of women but half of the same women think transgender rights having gone too far, they cannot support transgender people in their daughter's locker rooms at school. Cultural issues such as these inflamed the situation with the signs in Madison Square Garden saying "transgender the hell out of locker rooms in our schools." What would FDR and Frances Perkins say about this, their whole lives spent trying to figure out a way for unemployment insurance and stabilizing employment. The net result is that only about 20-25% of women thought abortion was the issue, and 60-70% saw the economy as the main issue. ...

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The IMF's Martin Cerisola, who headed a delegation to Iran on Jan. 25- Feb 8, 2014, has put out a report on the country's economy saying serious risks lie ahead. The inflation rate fell from 45% annualized rate in July 2013 to about 30% in Dec 2013, offering a short respite with a slight easing of the sanctions regime, but Cerisola says Iran remains in serious danger of "external shocks," that could affect Iran's currency, the rial. Cerisola says in his report that the reduced subsidies for fuel and food, poorly funded social programs, and the "marked deterioration in the external environment stemming from the intensification of trade and financial sanctions, have weakened the economy."

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Issues of work-life balance are growing for doctors as more doctors ages 40-54 years face burnout or negative effects on health. Nearly half of doctors in the U.S. 40-54 years of age in a survey of 15,000 physicians report feeling burned out from work hours and administrative tasks. Younger doctors 25-39 years, and older ones 55-73 years also reported high rate of burnout at 38% and 39%. Overall for all physicians about half of all physicians said they would take a substantial pay cut to get a better work-life balance. What this survey and report by Medscape shows is that no age group, career stage, gender or specialty is immune to this problem, says Colin West, professor of Medicine and researcher on physician well being at the Mayo Clinic.

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Mark your calendar for May 29 when You Tube will host screenings  of the virtual film festival from multiple locations- Cannes France, Venice Italy, Berlin Germany, Toronto Canada, and New York. This is the "We Are One- Global Film Festival," with virtual cinema program for 10 days with feature films, documentaries, shorts and round tables. Films can can inspire and bring people in different countries together in a useful virtual format combining many of the best film festivals worldwide.

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After years of decline in Germany's rail system Deutsche Bahn this infrastructure suffering from old technology, broken bridges, lack of drivers, and train delays for 1 in 4 trains, is now up for revitalization. In 2017 about 2 million passengers claimed compensation for delays and were given average of 19 euros. 

ICE 4 is the new generation of high speed trains holding 830 people and 350 metres long. speed is 250 kilometres an hour and costs 22% less for energy.

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The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) reduced its forecasts for GDP growth in Russia to 3.1% for 2012 and 3.3% for 2013. Moody's Investors Service warned that the Russian economy could contract 5% in the next 10-12 months and the ruble could depreciate by 30% if the eurozone crisis worsens.