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Some political experts such as David Plouffe, campaign manager of Obama's 2008 campaign for president, do not take a Hillary win over Donald Trump as a given. They cite the average of negatives for Trump at 63%, but Clinton's are high too at 54%, and this campaign season has shown Clinton has vulnerabilities in the way she has lost in some of the primaries to Bernie Sanders. Sanders like Trump is leading a voter protest against establishment candidates.

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Behind H-P's allegation of "serious accounting improprieties" is the misclassifcation of hardware sales as software sales. Hardware sales of 10-15% were unprofitable at Autonomy and helped to inflate margins from 30% to over 40% before the acquisition by H-P. H-P's Apotheker let his views of Autonomy as a growth engine and bonding with Autonomy founder Mike Lynch affect the process of due diligence, which is obvious now was not thorough in all aspects.

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Intel and the Federal Trade Commission plan to settle an anti-trust case. This will require Intel to change monopolistic practices in the microprocessor market. One of the ways Intel has tried to fend off competitors like AMD is by offering rebates to HP, Dell, and Acer. In a private settlement Intel paid $1.25 billion to AMD in November 2009. It paid a $1.45 billion fine to the EU after a ruling against Intel for such practices.

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To cut the deficit estimated at 5.5% of GDP, the Indian government is cutting fuel subsidies. It is reducing the $5.6 billion spent on fuel subsidies. About $4.4 billion is also is spent on subsidies by state owned energy companies. Prices for gasoline will rise only moderately by 3.5 rupees a liter to about 55.7 rupees a liter. This should improve the situation for state owned energy companies and for private sector companies like Reliance and Essar.

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Ideas for tuning the Tappan Zee Bridge in New York into something like the pedestrian walkway and bicycle pathway similiar to the popular Walkway Over the Hudson. Work on a new $5 billion bridge to replace the Tappan Zee is expected to begin by spring 2013. Governor Cuomo calls it "an exciting option." Costs for demolishing the old bridge would run to $150 millon. Conversion of the bridge would create added open space in the Lower Hudson Valley.

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Ford continues to struggle in getting people's attention and in getting people into the showrooms to seriously look at Ford. One problem is the fierce competition even as Ford cars and other vehicles get better in quality and safety and reliability, the competitiion is not standing still. The latest in this effort overseen by mullaly is the Swap My Ride Campaign now underwaywhere people exchange the car they drive for a Ford vehicle like the Edge crossover.

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Mike Atherton looks at the Australia India series and sees hope for England. He says Bumrah had too heavy a burden to carry as a fast bowler missing the second innings of the last Test. Starc and Cummins are getting older now. Lyons was there but not by much. No batsmen looked confident. Not Smith or Labuschagne. Only Australia's Head and India's Jaiswal were good and consistent. Kohli and Sharma disappointed the Indians. Indian fielding was not at it's best at critical moments. 

The public responded to the contest with 833,000 coming to the Test matches in Brisbane, Adelaide, Perth and at the MCG, SCG Final Test.

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With the hype around AI and the propagandizing by people like Altman, Microsoft, and others AI got to the point where it made up 34% of the S&P 500 capitalization, and all time high for 7 of the large companies since 1980. Nvidia who makes the chips for AI  making up about 6.8% of the S&P 500, contributing to a quarter of the total return on the S&P 500 index in 2024.

Till someone in China figured out a way to do it at 5.6% of what it costs in the US for the high flying AI companies in the US. 

 

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Pearlstein touches on the main issues raised by Obama's regulatory reform proposals. A thorough and independent analysis by a panel of seasoned regulators and independent experts would have done better, Pearlstein says. It would take more time, but the regulatory reforms need to be thorough, considering the damage that has been done to the financial system, and considering the opportunity to do something serious about this. It would have also shielded the administration from criticism if tough action was needed in some areas. Hearing all sides of the matters at hand, and weighing the pros and the cons on each issue is helpful, but there are gaps in this approach when some of the key actors like Geithner and Summers have worked too closely in the past with the financial firms that are being regulated, and may have a tendency and bias in that direction. The President's lack of expertise in these areas, and a desire to keep the regulatory hand as light as possible, and intense obying by financial firms, can tilt things away from serious regulatory reform. The danger is that the opportunity to fix things with major structural changes where necessary, and some tough actions where needed may be lost. Some of the obvious gaps are mentioned by Pearlstein. There is no measure to tackle the situation with the ratings agencies. There will be more transparency than before but complex derivative trading can take place prettty much like before. Credit default swaps will continue as before. If you set up acouncil of regulators, then why not bite the bullet and consolidate them into a single agency, asks Pearlstein? Banks will continue to have their proprietary trading desks, from where they ran up huge losses, these act like in-house hedge funds. Ultimately a lot depends on who is running these agencies, or the Fed, and what is the prevailing opinion about markets in the country. The prevailing opinion that the less regulation the better for free markets, and the lack of independent regulators, and poor appointments, had a lot to do with the capture of the regulatory agencies by the the firms they were supposed to regulate. And on this point the President is on safer ground, as he can ensure that he appoints tough regulators and create a new culture that puts regulation right where it should be, as a necessary ingredient for free markets, just like rules of the road. And in one area the President has created a new structure, a new agency with powers- this is where consumer protections are at stake- so that the abuses that took place with mortgages do not take place....

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The Europeans led by France and Germany demand stricter regulation and a financial regulatory system that oversees the entire financial system, and oversees all the larger countries. The US in contrast wants to see a lighter regulatory system, and lighter regulation of parts of the financial system like hedge funds. For the USA where the crisis originated, the emphasis is on larger stimulus spending. For the Europeans which have a larger safety net that they would like to see considered as part of their stimulus- and their social arrangement such as reduced hours in Germany to avoid layoffs, and the presence of a large public sector in France that is about 52% of GDP- the situation as they see it does not require breaking the EU's committment to control large deficits. The cultural and historical roots are also different. Germany was hit by hyperinflation in the period between the two wars, and there is thought there that this helped the rise of demagogic leaders and the collapse of democracy there. At that time the issue was war reparations that Germany found difficult to absorb in an economy devastated by the first war, which strained German finances. France and Germany also have no foreclosure crisis, and car sales and consumer spending are not in the deep decline that is seen in the USA. In fact car sales have increased in the two countries with the refunds for scrapping old vehicles, with no such plan in place in the USA. Making there is a credible position on the European side. Germany does see itself hit by the collapse in international trade. Germany and France face the prospect of helping their banking systems deal with the large bad loan situation facing them in Eastern Europe. At the same time Germany and France want to save some firepower for coming to the aid of key parts of the European community like Spain, Greece, and Ireland, which are facing a worsening crisis. In short both sides have credible positions, and some form of accomodation as events unfold may be a better desired outcome than some unified outcome. And little has been said of the position of the other countries in the G20, the emerging countries like Brazil, India, China, Russia, Indonesia, Argentina and others, and the position of the World Bank speaking for the poorest countries. These countries may favor stronger stimulus, and would favor the stricter regulation and supervision of global financial systems favored by the Europeans. This is because they may rightly feel that the messups in the global financial system have stolen their chance, at just the point where they were turning the corner in their efforts at bringing better standards of living to their peoples....

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With Whitacre in charge at GM there is a change of style and substance that just flows from who the man is. He is a no-nonsense guy, who once told a colleague from his days at Southwestern Bell, that God gave us two eyes and one mouth for the right reason so we should use it in that proportion. He is quite matter of fact about approaching the probems at GM right from the beginning. From those early meetings at the Westin airport hotel in Detroit, where he would tell GM executives and Henderson that if things did not happen the way they should and quickly he would find the right people. After there was a lot of soul searching about Henderson's decision to sell Opel- and three directors with private equity background decided it was bad for GM, that GM needed Opel for its compact and midsize car engineering and sales volume- Henderson was replaced as CEO. The decision was reversed. Within 3 months of Henderson's departure four other executives were let go, 20 more were reassigned and seven outsiders were brought in to fill top jobs. Lutz was marginalized. Reuss in his forties was placed in charge of N. America. The metrics were simplified from Wagoner's days to six: market share, revenue, operating profit, cash flow, quality, and customer satisfaction. His approach to get managers who make decisions fast and correct mistakes speedily. Vice chairman and CFO, Christopher Liddell, is from Microsoft and joined in January. Liddell points out that 12 of the 13 person GM executive committee are either new to the auto industry or outsiders. And the seniormost Whitacre and Liddell, are new to the auto industry and outsiders, so Whitacre can point out that GM has run the business in a more complicated way than it needs to be. The big changes are cultural. And making these changes for a company the size of GM and with the trauma that happened at GM with the speedy decline, required someone with the experience Whitacre gained in tackling the problems he faced at Southwesten Bell and the new AT&T, with its changing culture. The tough down-to-earth nature of the guy, with no affectations or layers to his personality whatsoever, proved an asset at the new AT&T and now at GM. Other decisions he has made at GM, are some strategic ones like bringing down incentives to sell cars, the latest being letting market share drop in March in the face of Toyota's heavy use of incentives to recover from the recall crisis, but sticking to reducing the incentive dollars by $1200 to $3500 per car. This made it possible to achieve sales goals. And some tactical but of great significance, from a common sense approach to GM advertising with his remark "I'm sick of Howie Long." Pitchman Long was a football player, and what Whitacre insisted on was showing off GM's best models and features to blow the competition, like the "May the Best Car Win," campaign. That many of GM's ads didn't focus on the cars and didn't make any sense, like little Cadillacs flying out of a birdhouse, makes this truly incredible to an outsider. Other things Whitacre brings are a change in his expectations, and his overall demeanor. This impatience may be a good thing for GM especially with the capital investment in new models, plant investment and better decisionmaking, and commonsense approach, to back it up. In the car industry it can't hurt for the top guy to look at the car clay models and ask why they can't be brought to market in 12 months. It gets people thinking differently. Asking a Cadillac dealer he knows in San Antonio why they should'nt be selling twice as many Cadillacs if the marketing was better. It helps when the top guy can visit a plant and have "diagonal slice meetigs" with plant staff, workers and UAW people, to talk about things in sweat shirt and jeans with no airs about yourself whatsoever, and to follow this up with a repeat meeting some months later and announce a $136 million investment, as he did with the Fairfax plant in Kansas....

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The IMF, ECB, and the EU, are requiring Greece to make cuts to private sector salaries by a reported 25% to bring Greece's wages more in line with a country like Portugal, because of the lower productivity of Greek workers and a way to make Greek goods more competitive. This is one way to accomplish what a devaluation of the drachma would have done when Greece was outside the eurozone. Greece's minimum wage is about $1000 a month- officials from the troika want to see this go down about $750 a month. The difficulty is that consumer prices are higher in Greece, with gasoline at $8 a gallon and other prices higher due to cartels that control the distribution of consumer goods in Greece. Other austerity measures required by the troika as a condition for further aid to Greece are pension cuts and higher taxes on businesses. Labor unions and business leaders pointed out other factors affecting Greece's competitiveness in a letter to prime minister Papademos as they opposed drastic wage cuts- the letter said " competitiveness is affected more by factors like bureaucracy- which is fed by complex regulation, state intervention, the tax system, corruption and antibusiness mentality rather than wage costs."...

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Christopher Power talks to three former IMF officials. If offered the Greece portfolio at the IMF, Simon Johnson, (a former IMF official) says he would ask for a transfer to Iceland, because Greece is incredibly complex, with the IMF unlikely to impose conditions. Especially with IMF chief Dominique Strauss Kahn's aspirations to become President of France. The ECB controls Greek monetary policy and there is no chance of a devaluation with the Greeks in the euro currency. This leaves Greece locked into an unsustainable currency rate. Kenneth Rogoff and Michael Mussa, both agree that the IMF can help buy time for Greece with bridge loans and laying a framework for confidence. Mussa points to the Greek problem- the credit markets won't buy their bonds forever and at the same time its a nasty business to have a sovereign default in the euro currency area. Mussa sees the situation as much like that of GM. Bush bought time for an orderly transition should GM have to declare bankruptcy, which is what happened under Obama. With the European recovery weak, Portugal and Spain fragile, an orderly arrangement is critical not to upset markets. Its like kicking the can down the street, says Mussa, but that can have some advantages. ...

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The Chinese car market is changing fast, with domestic brands making up a larger share of the local market. In 2000 these domestic brands made up 18% of total sales, whereas in 2010 forecasts show this to be about 32%, with the share increasing in future years. In a rapidly growing market this did not make much difference, but with the market growth moderating to 7-8% in the next ten years from the heady 33% of recent years, the foreign brands such as GM and VW will not see the growth of recent years. J.D. Powers projects passenger vehicle sales in China at 19.2 million by 2017, with Chinese brands taking 45% of the share, in one scenario. Under this scenario foreign brands like GM and VW would see sales growth of only 5% in the next 7 years. The foreign brands are not allowed to own more than 50% of local operations. And their partners are making their own domestic brands. If Japan is a useful example, China's automobile companies will like Nisssan, Toyota, and Honda, proceed to penetrate global markets and become a dominant player in their local market. This has implications for GM, VW and Daimler....

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Jonathan Ive, Apple's design chief, talks about what it is like working as part of a very small team that included Steve Jobs and Tim Cook for two decades. Jobs complete focus was on creating great products. The innovative products were created through the work of very small teams, says Ive. Two attributes the team members had to have are being inquisitive and curious. Making the product, manufacturing it using new technologies for materials like light weight titanium, was not something tacked on at the end, but something that was addressed as part of the design at the outset. Form, material, process- the design development and making- are intertwined thorughout, says Ive. For titanium that meant complete redesign, discovering new partners to work with, and hiring a new organization. This put Tim right at the heart of things and deeply involved right from the beginning. Ive repeats the idea focussed small team effort, and says this is no platitude. Titles, organizational structures are insignificant in this setup. Today Ive meets 3 times a week with Tim Cook. Tim sees design as an effort to articulate how a user sees the object, and credits Cook with a unique ability for giving this special attention and working to understand how an object is perceived....

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Toyota is reducing its dependence on the US market by growing in China, Russia and the Miidle East and with plans for growth in India with a lowcost car. The market in China and Russia has grown by 40% for example and this should mean there is room for overall global growth even with the slowdown in the US. In China Toyota is falling short of demand as its consistently underestimated the growth in the market. When Toyota thought the Chinese market would hit 8 million vehicles by mid 2007 it actually hit 8.5 million. So in many countries like China, Russia and the Middle East and India Toyota may be scrambling to meet demand in the future which suggests that in the long term Toyota may be less affected by the ups and downs in the US market. The US manufacturers like GM are following a similiar strategy. Competing with Toyota overseas the US makers have none ofthe liabilities they face in the US market, years of sloppy service and image, pension and health liabilities, union rules and restrictions, and they are moving some of the best technology and design into overseas markets so the competition there should be on more even ground....

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Chinese are saving for the future as there is no safety net, no social security and no welfare or food stamps.And this means there will be a strong cutback in consumption and in sales of most products in China. Even before this global economic crisis China was becoming even more export oriented. In the last decade consumption as percentage of GDP actually declined from 47% to 37%. And the $586 billion stimulus has some measures to boost consumption but most of the money will go to infrastructure like new highways, railroads and airports. Housing construction is coming to a halt with home prices down 15% in Shenzen. And layoffs among exporters in the area north of Hong Kong like Li Kai which made 9 million sneakers for New Balance in 2007 will make 7 million in 2008, and is laying off 22% of its workers. Migrant workers are headed back home. The sales of foreign firms will be affected. GM's Buick brand saw sales decline an estimated 12% this year and JD Powers estimates decline in 2009 by 21%. Researcher BDA China sees cell phone sales down to 9% growth each year for next 5 years, down from 30% increases in the past 5 years....

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According to this report in The Times money taken from a sovereign investment fund was used for the film "Wolf on Wall Street," starring Leonard Di Caprio. Details of the 1MDB story first investigated by the Wall Street Journal read like a detective novel. Malaysia's former prime minister in his 90's returned this year to defeat his former protege Najib in an election that revolved around the 1MDB story and how the state investment fund had funds diverted away from development goals by Najib. Malaysia's Attorney General files criminal charges against Goldman Sachs bank for collusion in the loss of billions of dollars from the 1MDB Malaysia fund intended for development goals, according to this report in The Times. Two former employees are accused of misappropriating $2.7 billion. The statement by the Attorney General, Tommy Thomas about Goldman Sachs bank said: "They have fallen short of any standard... they have to be held accountable." ...

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Kindler on Pfizer's turnaround in April 2007. H plays jazz piano like his son and likes to spend time with his family where his daughter likes to remind him that he is not CEo around the house. He goes on sales calls with his sales reps to find out what its really like talking to doctors as a sales rep first hand and no one knows who he is. He likes to go out here on the road to talk to people and find out about the business. Kindler's experience is not as a pharmaceutical industry insider. And he has watched Pfizer stock sink by 50% and all sorts of issues come up fromquestions about the integrity of clinical trials to low morale and layoffs, and skeptical public.

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Ali Gomaa, the grand mufti of Egypt, gives his ideas on Articles 2 of the 1971 Constitution (which established Islam as the religion of the state), and Article 7 of the interim Constitution (which guarantees equal citizenship before the law, regardless of religion). As head of Egypt's agency of Islamic jurisprudence, he gives his assurance to the West and to Egyptians, that the religious establishment of Egypt and he personally, is committed to tolerance and popular sovereignty that respects the rights of all citizens. He points to Egypt's tradition of a moderate and tolerant view of Islam. He says that Egypt threw out the heavy hand of authoritarian rule after many years and is not about to replace this with another type of authoritarian rule based on Islam. Islam's place in Egypt he argues, will be similiar to state churches in Denmark, and England, and similiar to Islam as the national religion in secular states like Tunisia and Jordan. The kind of Islam he sees for Egypt, in his words, is that of freedom and tolerance....

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The election strategy of Obama campaign manager Jim Messina to spend heavily early on in the campaign- even before Romney would get to the convention- to portray Romney as a private equity executive out of touch with the needs of working class Americans. Romney's record at Bain Capital was under relentless attack in the late summer and Romney did little to defend his record till late in the campaign. The other area especially in the midwestern states was the auto industry bailout for which the Obama campaign put out a flurry of ads saying Romney was willing to let Detroit go bankrupt. Experts say this proved to be the decisive factor, as Romney could never overcome the disadvantage in this portrayal to voters of someone who did not care enough for people like them. To do this the Obama campaign had outdone the Romney campaign in fundraising, being way ahead of Romney in campaign funding by that time.

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The European Union was faced with a baseline tariff of 10% which after slow progress on negotiations is up now to 15%. EU frustration is evident in this story in the WSJ. But this could also be just a negotiating tactic of the EU. Bottom line the EU needs the US as Germany faces an assertive Russia. Germany is aware that France and Britain are further away than Germany from Eastern Europe and Russia.  Under chancellor Merz there is  much more rapport with the US than ever existed under the Merkel government or the Scholz government. Merz has disagreed with the sale of stake to COSCO in Hamburg port and many decisions from the Merkel period on immigration, being more aligned with the US in spirit. This was evident in the visit and meeting of DJT with Merz at the White House. DJT says even of Starmer of Labour that "I like him a lot." This could easily be said about the relationship between DJT and Merz. The decision by DJT on Patriots to replenish German supplies and by Merz to finance this and shift Patriots in Germany to Ukraine is a clear example of the path chosen by the two leaders for cooperation. German decisions will be driven by Merz in the direction of economic cooperation with the US with none of the condescending attitude that Merkel and even Scholz showed towards the US out of a lack of grasp of what is happening both inside Germany and the US, the need to rebuild the US and Europe after the trade disasters and lack of investment in the home base of 30 years. ...

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The head of the European Centres for Disease Control ECDC, Dr. Andrea Ammon, says the Delta variant of the coronavirus will make up 70% of all cases in Europe by early August, and 90% of all cases by the end of August. ECD modeling shows that there is a risk of another wave like the one after last summer in Europe. The Delta variant is much more infectious than the UK Alpha variant and the UK variant much more infectious than the original variant. A 50% reduction in non-pharmaceutical interventions such as allowing the staging of events would lead to an increase in infection in all age groups. Latest ECDC data show 34% of people in Europe fully vaccinated and 57% with one dose. One dose offers much less protection. Younger individuals have a lower vaccination rate and are vulnerable. Also vulnerable are the older people not vaccinated yet. About 40% of people over 60 are not yet vaccinated, and 30% of people over 80 years are not yet vaccinated in the European Union. As in the US vaccination varies by region within the EU. All these vulnerable groups can be affected in another wave of the coronavirus similar to after last summer when restrictions were removed. Dr. Ammon is a former advisor to the German government. She says it is important for young people who are not vaccinated to continue to follow the strict social distancing precautions.  This is not happening today as governments are relaxing mask mandates in Britain, France and Spain. Soccer games are coming back to fan filled stadiums increasing the risk. Tourist spots in Portugal and Greece are now looking similar to the vacation spots in Croatia that increased infections in Europe after summer 2020. ...

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Obesity in the US is as high as about 40% in West Virginia, Louisiana, and Oklahoma. It is lowest about 25% in Colorado, Vermont and Hawaii. About 22 states have obesity rate over 35%. Compare this with China which is seeing obesity increase from about 15% in 2023 to 20% in 2034. Real competition between the two countries starts with areas like health care coming out of the pandemic when looking at the true interest of both peoples instead of geopolitics creating a huge distraction from problems of health, climate change and education. Meat intake has tripled in China and a return to more vegetable and fruits and ancient grains is something that is needed badly, also helping tackle climate change. The states in the South and midwestern US have higher rates of obesity followed by northeast and western states. This includes in the South Kentucky, Georgia, Texas, Alabama, Tennessee, South Carolina, Mississippi, Arkansas. In Midwest it includes Ohio, Indiana, Wisconsin, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa and Kansas. It is useful to note that this is in Voice of America news which is aimed at an overseas audience and this kind of information is not seen widely in US media. Robust food programs ae needed especially for people living in poverty. Health consciousness needs to be emphasized in all aspects of life and worklife, workspaces, living locations and transportation options all need to be devised around this. Bussel of the Robert Woods Foundation says even ten years back no state had over 35% of the population being obese. Clearly headed in the wrong direction with all the discussion in media run by billionaires on everything but what most affects the quality and ease of living of ordinary people. ...