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Healthcare, climate change, pensions and social benefits, are three issues uppermost in the minds of German voters. Three million new young voters most of them only about 2 years old when Merkel started 16 years in office, look for change. They are well informed and for these young voters climate change is the most important issue. DW.com shows three voters and how they plan to vote. One voter has cast a mail in ballot for The Greens party. The second voter will vote for the Greens. Both because of climate change concerns. The third voter Thurid says her mother is a geriatric nurse and is not vaccinated. She is vaccinated but had talks with her mother and understands her worries about vaccination. She will vote for the Free Democrats because they oppose compulsory vaccination. The three leading parties for young voters are the Greens party, the Free Democrats, followed by the Social Democrats all in the range of 16-18% of support. The Greens have sent out 2 million brochures to voters. Out of 60 million voters in a German population of 80  million, 3 million is only 5% of the vote. What makes a difference is that it is consistent with the general direction of voters young and old, all looking for change in Germany as the CDU party attracts only about 20% or one fifth of German voters. Social Democrats Scholz is way ahead of Christian Democrats Laschet in how voters view each candidate. Will German voters be well informed enough to make a decision based on their desire for change after 16 years of Merkel or will the CDU bringing back in the last days of the campaign the old fears that the communist Left party would somehow find its way into the government using the Greens as a way in- this is a question for German voters. In1994 during the Cold War with Soviets Kohl used this to keep the Social Democrats out and Greens out and formed a coalition with the FDP. Yet today Merkel has grown close to both Russia and China and away from the Western alliance in a way that was unimaginable under Adenauer who helped build the new Federal Republic of Germany after the war. Merkel refuses to even immediately accept a call from a new US president Biden, American president who is closest in style and temperament to Harry Truman who faced off the Soviets in Berlin in 1948.  The FDP opposes a wealth tax or any form of taxes in which the wealthier pay a fair share of what is needed to build crumbling infrastructure in Germany neglected in the Merkel years. In Germany social and economic disparities have grown during the pandemic with poverty increasing during the pandemic as has happened throughout Europe and the world. The US is already committing to increase taxes for the upper incomes. This is where voters have a choice- do nothing with infrastructure, health or climate change or do something by increasing taxes. The choice is now before the German people.  With this question comes a choice for western civilization, with the recent election in the US, and two elections in Germany and then France. Will it look with optimism to the future or will it huddle up in a deeply cautious and slightly pessimistic view of the world that is embedded in Angela Merkel's cautious vision that ended up only responding to crises- some self inflicted as in migration policy, and even self inflicted in tackling euro problems created in the euro currency's faulty design. In fiscal policy as in migration policy Merkel has reversed her position- by supporting European solidarity. Will Germans vote for optimism or never ending caution? Are lessons learned?     ...

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DW. com looks at the controversial effort of privage equity firms Blackstone and Carlyle to buy stakes in Bundesliga soccer clubs. Approval of 24 of 36 clubs sets out a plan to attract 1 billion euros of funding for digitalization, internationalization, in return for an 8% share of TV rights revenues for a period of 20 years. Experts say any effort to take international preference for the Premier League will be difficult. There is also the 50+1 rule in Germany where the ownership stays with the clubs not investors, so that the ticket prices are affordable for the club fans and the clubs belong to the fan base. For the fans and locals the situation is better without private equity.

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Failure by EU leaders to take early and decisive action to reduce Greece's debt to sustainable levels in 2009. This was when the IMF report by Dutchman Bob Traa blew the cover off the Greek coverup of deteriorated finances. Policy missteps included ECB president Trichet and other EU leaders pushing austerity measures and not taking needed tough action on reducing the debt. By November 2011 a 50% reduction in debt with bondholders taking the losses is not enough to correct the situation. Greece's debt is discounted by 70% by Nov 2011. Analysts estimate an 85% reduction in Greek debt being necessary for Greece to pull through without a default.

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Two months of lockdown will cost France 120 billion euros. 

France's Budget Minister says debt will reach 9% of gross economic output in 2020.

Throughout the financial crisis in the eurozone France was restricted to keep the deficit under 3 percent and public debt at 60% of GDP -with some flexibility but with warnings- under the Stability and Growth Pact of 1997 fiscal rules underpinning the European Monetary Union. Today the debt is at 115% of GDP up from 100% before the crisis. 

Now the deficit will be three times the 3% envisaged by SGP.

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North Korea launched a missile that landed within 125 miles of Japan's northwest coast. The Japanese Defense Ministry stated the additional time to reach the Japanese shoreline was 20-30 seconds. North Korea said it did this to protest the U.S. and South Korea setting up a THAAD, Terminal High Altitude Area Defense System, about 200 miles southeast of Seoul to intercept North Korean missiles. Japanese prime minister Shinzo Abe reshuffled his cabinet and appointed Tomomi Inada, a conservative who supports revision of the Japanese constitution to improve Japanese capabilities for defense. She is the second woman to take up the defense ministry position after the newly elected Tokyo governor, Yuriko Koike.

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Toyota plans to spend $1 billion on a marketing and advertising plan, spending that is 30-40% more than normal, to ramp up production and fill out inventory. It includes money to subsidize lease and loan rates, customer incentives and dealer ads. One aim is to raise the projected resale value of its vehicles used in calculating montly lease payments. Akio Toyoda is also giving more decisionmaking power to local executives for the markets they are more familiar with.

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Angela Rayner, Secretary of Housing and deputy prime minister, removed the "beauty" requirement that was unnecessary and blocking new housing development in Britain. 62% of Britons support the aggressive housebuilding program of Labour government, 9% don't know and only 29% are opposed. Britain has a crisis in housing with a shortage of 4 million homes and 20% price increases in housing. Rayner's response on the change in the wording of housing requirements set by the government-  "This is ridiculous. Beautiful is so subjective. Actually, within the planning framework, there is a lot of specifications about in keeping with the local [environment]. Beauty is in the eye of the beholder anyway. It’s actually about [being] in keeping with the area, it’s about protecting nature and having access to nature, it’s about making sure that buildings are safe, they’re warm, they’re sustainable. So there’s a number of guidelines and rules that a developer has to follow. Beautiful? Beautiful means nothing really, it means one thing to one person and another thing to another." ...

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On October 30, Sheila Bair heading the FDIC, the main advocate for reducing foreclosures by reducing the mortgage payments is in discussions with Treasury officials for a plan whose details are still being worked out. A key part of it is for the government to assume half of the losses on home loans that are incurred if mortgage companies agree to lower monthly payments for at least 5 years. The cost to the government is about $50 billion that would come from the $700 billion bailout fund. Right now loan companies are reluctant to reduce monthly payments because homeowners might defaul again or the owners of mortgage securities might file law suits. The funds would go to shoulder half of any future losses on default. For example if under a loan modification program 40% redefault and losses on loans are 55%, and $500 billion in loans are modified under the program, the total losses government would bear are $55 billion. This scenario is possible in a deep and prolonged housing and economic slump. This would be a gradual program if mortgage companies or companies with home loans or servicers of loans have to decide if they want to take advantage of this program, and time is critical as the foreclosures are accelerating and thisputs downward pressure on prices....

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France's Paris St Gemain team wins by scoring 2 goals in the last 10 minutes of the game over a team from Bergamo, Italy that scored early, to reach the semi finals of the Champions League. The unlikely scorer is a player Choupo-Moting from France/Cameroon who played well for Mainz in the Bundesliga years ago under the new PSG coach Thomas Tuchel but has not played well for a long time. Tuchel also has that history of disciplined and patient work that brought results in coaching Mainz, then Dortmund and now PSG. He was only 25 years when an injury led to him having to retire as a player. Five years later at 30 he emerged doing youth coaching for soccer teams leading to the coaching work at Mainz.

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Zweig points out that P/E multiples fall quickly in the midst of higher uncertainty. Benjamin Graham's "cyclically adjusted" P/E refined by Yale economist Robert Shiller smooths out the top and bottoms of the market by averaging the past 10 years of earnings and incorporating effects of inflation. This "cyclically adjusted" P/E for the U.S. market for the last 50 years is 19.5. The P/E for the market when the S&P 500 was at 1325 in late July 2011 was 22.9, and at the low in the first week of August 2011 of 1167 was 20.2. With the higher uncertainty- as for instance Bank of New York Mellon charging clients to hold cash- the P/E multiples are in a different territory. The P/E dropped to 13.3 in March 2009 after the financial crisis of 2008. Larger macroeconomic trends and uncertainty may have yet to play out and not registered fully in the market indexes. Jack Hough throws light on this from a different angle in the Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2011 comparing stagnant wages and its relationship with corporate earnings....

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The need for an effective opposition and an alternative to the African National Congress party in South Africa. The Democratic Alliance party which it is estimated can get about 30% of the vote, as an alternative.

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Exports measured in dollars were 2.8% lower in December than a year ago, and imports down 21.3%, according to the customs agency. Measured in yuan exports were down 9% from a year ago. To get a sense of how big an impact this is, consider that the exports were growing an an annual rate of close to 30% in summer 2007. The result is millions of workers having lost heir jobs heading back to homes in rural areas by train. The slow down in imports also reflects exporters cutting back on purchases in anticipation of falling demand. Importers in the USA are finding it harder to get letters of credit financing, and rates are as high as 20% according to Bank of America, Sr VP Treasury products. This suggests the slowdown is just beginning and could be severe in 2009.

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GE's share price falls below $10. It has dropped 77% in 1 year from the 52 week high of $38.52 a share. Last time it hit this level was April 17, 1995. And its GE Capital unit faces problems. For years it generated half of GE's profits, now it had to sell its commercial paper to the government when markets dried up last fall. It has had to use a government bond guarantee program for bond issuance in recent months, even though it was at one time one of the largest corporate bond issuers. It has been unable to sell its $30 billion private label credit card operations and it appliances and light bulb units, as there are no buyers. As the stock drops GE has to consider cutting the dividend of $1.24 per share, to keep more cash to navigate this crisis. GE's Immelt continues to have his managers focus on the operations, and its business reviews that were conducted weekly are now conducted daily, and the monthly reviews are conducted weekly. But being proactive hasn't helped in this environment. ....

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Jim Dwyer discusses proposed legislation in the New York City Council in November 2011, to set a "living wage" of $10 per hour, plus benefits, for workers at new developments receiving more than $1 million in public money. Under this legislation employers who do not include benefits would pay an hourly wage of $11.50. Discussion in the City Council has led to questioning this legislation on the grounds that the developments would not be built under the new rules. Dwyer points to San Francisco, which has set the minimum wage at $10.24 for January 2012, plus mandatory contributions to health insurance funds. The number of low wage workers in New York City with some college education has increased by 70%, according to the Fiscal Policy Institute. Wages at the bottom were $10.85 an hour, adjusted for inflation in 1990, in 2010 the wages were $10. What this does is further increase the income disparities and inequality in the U.S. Because of the demographic changes in America with Hispanic children representing a large proportion of young children, and the high rate of dropouts from highschool in the Mexican American community in New York, this means more children in New York City growing up below the poverty line....

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Marty Makary, John Hopkins surgeon, is the DJT nomnee for head of the US Food and Drug Administration, FDA. Here a colleague of his at John Hopkins offers her experience working with Makary.  Leanna Wen says Makary is concerned about plastics, dyes, preservatives and chemicals that are entering our bodies and causing disease. Diseases that were not so prevalent one or two generations back are widespread today, says Makary. Makary wants to know why. Why has obesity quadrupled among young people in the US?Makary is also asking questions about why rates of childhood obesity are 5 times lower in Japan. Makary tell this Post reporter that ultra processed foods that are loaded with chemicals such as preservatives, artificial dyes and thickeners , take up 60% of calories Americans consume. This and poor food habits of today can cause diabetes, cancer, heart attacks and dementia. Pesticides and microplastics can cause early onset Alzheimer's and autoimmune diseases, attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorders. Makary wants medicine practiced in the US to direct resources to prevention, not simply hand out medicines with increasingly risky side effects. ...

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Tsutsui Yoshinobu, head of Keidanren, Japan's business federation, says China limiting exports of vital raw materials is "an obvious act of economic coercion." For the first time in 2025 Keidanren cancelled its annual dialogue meeting with China's representatives.  This was a followup to comments by Japanese PM Sanae that it would consider an attack on Taiwan as a danger to Japan's security. Sanae now enjoys 62% popularity rating. After 2 years of the LDp government with aminority in parliament she has announced a snap election to gain an abasolute majority in parliament. In the last elections small nationalist parties gained a large share of votes. Changes are happening in Japanese politics as a younger generation becomes more nationalistic. Sanae was made PM only recently at the end of 2025 after the PM in the LDP party faced criticism and resigned. Before he resigned he quickly signed a trade agreement with the US DJT administration to maintain Japanese exports to US at a 15% tariff. ...

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The remarkable story of how a CEO of a $4 billion food company is running the business from a children's bedroom. The founder of the plant based alternative meat maker is a biochemist who lives in Northern California Bay area. His employees are based in Redwood City, California. Mr. Brown, 65, communicates with his employees from here. He is also a marathon runner and a believer in fitness. He sets a 90 minute no meting time for employees when they can take a breather, get some fresh air, and walk around.

He has given employees, including hourly and temporary workers, paid leave so they can stay and work from home. The plant is closed with a third party in Chicago meeting commitments for its products manufacturing.He will reconsider restarting the plant April 7 if demand is higher than the supply. He views this as the right action and right thinking, as by stickling with his employees he believes they will stick with him in the long run.

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India is running a large current account deficit with imports exceeding exports. The curent account deficit for the year ending March 31 was $88.2 billion, about 4.8% of GDP. With foreign investment declining remittances from Indians abroad are a major source of incoming capital. Indians overseas sent about $69 billion in remittances home in 2012, increasing from $63 billion in 2011, according to the World Bank. In August 2013 India's central bank relaxed restrictions on interest rates for overseas Indian rupee accounts and on foreign currency denonimated deposits. This has led to a sharp increase in remittances by Indians overseas, with HDFC bank reporting a 30% increase in remittance volumes in June 2013 compared to January 2013.

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Information about the supply of services to the oil industry, including engineering professionals, from supply services company Schlumberger. Investment in petroleum exploration and production is expected to be $178 billion, a 10% increase over $162 billion in 2004, according to an estimate by Schlumberger's CEO, Mr. Gould, from figures published by energy companies. Gould personally thinks it will be higher. Mr. Smith CEO of John Herold , an oil industry consulting firm said that one oil industry executive told an industry gathering that drilling one onshore well now costs $1.5 million compared to $800,000 15 months ago. So the oil industry is getting much less for its buck with skyrocketing costs of exploration. Saudi Arabia plans to invest $50 billion over the next 5 years to expand its petroleum industry. Minister Naimi said that energy project costs have gone up by about 60%, due to shortages of engineering professionals, and equipment. To get some sense of the shortage of experienced professionals consider the figures from the American Petroleum Institute API. The oil industry peaked with 860,000 jobs in 1982, then lost 500,000 jobs by 2000. "A lot of skilled people have either been laid off, or have retired from the industry in the last 18 years," says Schlumberger's Mr. Gould. "Recruiting and training their replacements takes time and requires a global approach." ...

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Israel's Centre Left parties are left with fragmentation, as there is no popular leader for elections scheduled Jan. 22, 2013. Ehud Olmert is fighting corruption charges, Shimon Peres is 86, and Ehud Barak has a low political popularity rating.About 60% of Israelis support his performance as defense minister but only 3% say they would vote for him, with his Independence faction of the Labor party expected to win only 1-2 seats, according to polls in Israel. Barak, 70, was a member of the Israel Defense Forces for 35 years, and for many years a leader in the Labor party. In 2009 he formed a partnership with premier Netanyahu and joined the cabinet as defense minister, having similiar views on the Iranian nuclear threat. Barak has held positions as head of the defense forces, defense minister and prime minister. Experienced observers see the move to withdraw from the elections as a tactical one, considering the low poll ratings, so that he could join a future government.

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Prof. Sonalde Desai questions the lack of fresh thinking on addressing inequalities in India by sticking to reservations policy initiated in 1950 before modernization of the economy. In today's economy education is a critical component for upward mobility and the ability to read at higher level is critical. In India the forward castes do better in class 1 reading for 8-11 year olds with about 70% passing, for scheduled castes this drops to below 50%. Prof. Desai argues that addressing problems at the elementary school level is needed to create a level field for opportunities throughout society.

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Denmark's shipping company A.P. Moeller-Maersk plans to split into 2 different divisions, one for transport and one for energy. Maersk Line, the largest container operator in the shipping industry, will become part of the new Transport and Logistics Division. Oil interests of Maersk will be combined to form the Energy Division. In June Maersk replaced CEO Nils Anderson with Soren Skou from the shipping business. The container shipping industry is suffering from a sharp downturn with freight rates falling in price wars, and shipping lines barely covering fuel costs. Hanjin Shipping is a South Korean company that has filed for bankruptcy protection. There is a process of consolidation taking place in the shipping industry as smaller lines are finding it difficult to survive on their own. Experts say the 20 biggest container operators could lose about $8-10 billion in 2016. Maersk has shifted to $139 million net loss in 2nd quarter 2016.

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This report in the Indian Express shows the situation in Indian states. Only Delhi has a 90% recovery rate which means the virus spread is slowing and recovery is happening. All Indian states combined have a recovery rate of 70%. This means there are many new cases as others are recovering. Deaths are at about 2% and should eventually reach 1%.

Maharashtra cases exceed 500,000 and Tamilnadu 300,000, followed by Andhra and Karnataka in the top 4 states. By comparison the large states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar have together 220,000 cases and about 2600 deaths much less than Tamilnadu or Andhra Pradesh. Cases are now distributed in northern and southern India in the same proportion. Maharashtra and city of Bombay have not recovered in the way Delhi is recovering. In Maharashtra the inexperience of the administration compares with the experienced administration in Delhi of Mr. Kejriwal.

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Nathaniel Taplin of the WSJ says the tariffs put on $50 billion high tech products by the U.S. and retaliatory tariffs on $50 billion products are not about a trade war but a way both countries will negotiate setting out their two positions.  A look at the role of foreign firms in China shows China has access to new technology using these firms as a conduit and these firms are also generating more jobs, being highly productive. These firms Taplin says will set back their investments if no agreement is reached or if it is harder to bring Chinese made products into the U.S. At this time China badly needs this investment and technology access because of their dynamism compared to inefficient state run firms as it struggles under a massive debt load with very high debt to GDP ratio.  A major issue is job growth as companies getting foreign investment are much more effective in jobs generation, delivering 10% of all urban job growth from 2007 to 2016, using just 5.5% of total investment. Return on assets at 9% compares to 4% at state run firms. If this dynamism is reduced or affected in some way China could have to provide more unproductive debt buildup stimulus.  For these reasons China has good reason to make concessions, says Taplin. Trump administration will ask for greater semiconductor purchases, much looser joint venture or foreign ownership requirements, higher Chinese payment for U.S. intellectual property. For all these reasons this is not about a trade war but about serious negotiations taking place so that there is a level playing field in the next phase of competition in high tech between the U.S., China and the E.U. changing the dynamics of the trade relationship in ways that reverse the trends of the past. ...

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Biden is a US president in a hurry, says this analysis in The Times. And it says this is for a good reason. Biden as vice president in the Obama administration has watched as time slipped by and much of the hopes remained unfulfilled for infrastructure and other plans including climate change. Biden also has long experience in Congress and long experience working with Congressional rules. He also understands that the Democratic majority may not last beyond 2 years, better to go all out now and lose no time. This is the thinking behind his plan for $2 trillion in infrastructure spending in the first 100 days of his administration, and the idea that he does not need to win Republican support by watering down his plan.

The American people now support this kind of bold vision and bold plan after the pandemic showed the weak nature of presidential plans and aspirations till now for three decades.