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Yvette Cooper, UK Home Secretary, continues to pursue a policy of keeping open asylum hotels even as the UK public opinion on asylum seekers shifts, with large parts of the population not supporting it. Immigration is the top issue in Britain and keeping asylum seekers in hotels at government expense is highly unpopular. Giving Reform UK support that it did not have in 2024. A WSJ report shows the problems UK immigration policy is running into in 2025 under Labour.  Editorial opinion in The Times of London says Farage's ideas on stopping migrants should be heard, as both Conservatives and Labour have not got it right, with surging numbers of migrants as long as policies on benefits favor migrant flow. It is plain common sense. The irony is that for most of the British Empire since 1600 during colonization there were no such policies favoring immigrants much less illegal migrants, colonial peoples had no such rights in British colonies in China or India much less in Britain that are now being offered to migrants coming illegally under the European Convention of Human Rights. Asian people pulled themselves up by the bootstraps- Japan, Taiwan, China, and India, and never depended on such Conventions. Some ideas in The Times of London say the UK military should be given the task of protecting the waters around Britain and some troops stationed in France to prevent illegal boat crossings where they start, considering that such action was taken during the recent Olympics in France. ...

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Most people are not aware that EU had 10% tariff on US car imports into the European Union over many decades. US tariff was only 2.5%. The US tariff of 15% on EU car imports into the US in 2025 comes after EU recalcitrance for decades in lowering its tariffs on US car imports.  German carmakers have prepared for the higher tariff and EU car stocks were up as this is a lower tariff than the initial tariff of 25%. German car makers export luxury cars with higher margins which offers some offset as well as increasing efficiency in car making so that only a small part of this will be passed on to the US car buyer. An offset to the US car buyer is in the One Big Beautiful Act of 2025 which lets car buyers deduct the interest costs of leasing a car. The result is that US car industry will have the advantage it has long been deprived of and American car buyers will not be affected in the way the media has presented, or not at all. Over time German car industry will also do well with its access to the growing American market. Germany will lower its tariff on US car imports to 2.5% from 10% which makes it profitable for BMW and Mercedes to make SUV's in the US to export to Germany and EU, making this a win-win for US and EU. ...

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Experts say wisdom is important for well-being the older you become. About 150,000 people are over 85 years age in New York City. This series in the NYT in Dec. 2015 looks at people in the city, their lives, and their attitudes to life. At this age as other physical abilities decline it is wisdom that makes up for this. By being positive about their aging and adapting to their limitations older people make better lives. Laura Carstensen, director Stanford Center on Longevity, says this period can be better than people think for seniors who have gratitude, forgiveness, calm and appreciation in greater degrees from 50 years to 70 years, continuing into the later years. Anger and stress being replaced by conveying gratitude. The positive attitudes to aging also affect memory and heart disease. One of the people covered Ping Wong, 90 years, plays mah-jongg with friends every day and does everyday activities that make her happy. Jonas Mekas, 93 years, is a filmmaker who continues his working activities- doing an exhibition in Brescia, Italy, publishing an anthology of his writings, and giving a lecture in Berlin on filmmaking. Mekas has an interesting philosophy of life- he says do what you are doing and don't think about it much, it will all end sometime, just do something good for humanity that someone else can pickup from you when you are gone, which is normal. A sense of optimism prevails in these lives. Says Mekas its important to not give up on the idea of paradise....

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The Economist points to a second hit from bad debt in the post 2008 stimulus binge of spending in China. This is after an earlier hit, that was absorbed as a result of high growth rates and high savings. About $420 billion was injected into 5 state owned banks since 1998, according to one estimate, as a result of the first hit to China's banks from bad debt. In this second round of bad debt, covered in more detail by David Barboza in the New York Times, and merely alluded to here, many bad loans to infrastructure projects were rushed through by local governments. The Economist considers this one of the successes of the state directed banking system, that loans were quickly made and projects started in the post 2008 crisis period; and expresses the view that this hit will be absorbed just like the last hit. However the more detailed account by David Barboza and in Business Week, points to the working of a system of incentives gone astray in a capitalist system without the necessary controls or regulation. Local governments used investment companies to take on loans, which were then used to prepare properties to be auctioned off at a profit and speculative prices to state owned companies in different industrial sectors. This is part of rampant speculation in China in real estate markets. Can China with its high savings and growth absorb a second hit? This depends on the magnitude of the hit and the size of the bad debt, which depends on how long this speculative market continues to operate, and how bad debt is hidden in the books. The difference this time is that large state owned companies in different industrial sectors are engaged in this speculation. The other difference is that the high growth rates in China depend on continued large trade deficits with the USA and Western Europe, something which is not likely to continue for long, as consumers in Europe and the USA with high debt are becoming cautious spenders. This suggests that China, like the US with the mortgage crisis, faces the same effects of unregulated or uncontrolled speculative behaviours, that can endanger the banking system....

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China's exports were able to show year over year growth of 7.6% in the first quarter of 2012, a sharp decline from 20.3% in 2011. As a result IMF estimates of China's long term current account surplus which were about 7% of GDP in the World Economic Outlook in Sept. 2011 may now be lowered to about 5%. This would reduce the strength of arguments that the yen is undervalued. The IMF is now engaged in making estimates for current account balances till 2017. China's current account surplus peaked at 10.1% of GDP in 2007 and the IMF forecasts in 2008 were for this to remain at 10% for the long term. The situation is rapidly changing because the most recent estimates from China's State Administration for Foreign Exchange show the actual current account surplus for 2011 at 2.8% of GDP. Since the 2010 Group of 20 nations summit meeting when China was pressured to reduce its trade surplus and let the yuan appreciate, the yuan has appreciated by 8.3%.

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Sanger, Erlanger and Rudoren describe in detail the differing interests of Congress, the Obama administration, the Iranian hardliners around Khamanei, the Israelis, the Europeans, and the Russians each quietly pushing its own interests. Beyond the physics of a deal, a Republican Congress, Democrat Obama and Iranian hardliner Khamanei, each are trying to get their own narrative to look right with public opinion they face, that they have not backed down. The Israelis find any deal unacceptable and reject even a small lifting of sanctions, because of the "existential" threat. Add to this Sunni Saudi Arabia which says it will match Shiite Iranian capabilities with their own uranium enrichment facilities if Iran is allowed to retain capabilities. And economic interests also figure into this- Russian interest is in keeping Iranian oil off the market as long as possible so that oil prices do not fall further in 2015, which means delay an agreement as long as possible. The French see the Obama administration as likely to give too much away for an agreement and want tougher terms....

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As appliance maker Fagor goes into bankruptcy with $1.16 billion in debt during Spain's long downturn, 1800 workers lose their jobs. Unemployment in the Basque town of Mondragon in northern Spain where Fagor is located, is up from 15% to 22%. Fagor was founded in 1955 and sold refrigerators, washing machines and televisions. Sales were 14 billion euros in 2012. An injection of 300 million euros from other members of the Mondragon co-op network and 80 million euros from workers failed to prevent the factories from closing. Decisions for international expansion with the acquisition of a French appliance maker created problems for Fagor because of the long economic downturn in the home base. Failure to move jobs to emerging markets with lower costs hurt Fagor, as Whirlpool and Electrolux moved jobs to China and other developing countries. Fagor's unique co-op structure of worker ownership made it difficult to move jobs outside Spain and France, and issuing new shares for capital is not possible under the co-op structure. ...

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Francesca Doner's interview with Jean-Marc Duvoisin, CEO of Nestle Nespresso SA. Duvoisin was CEO of Nestle SA in Mexico before becoming chief of Human Resources for Nestle. He now heads Nespresso. Here he responds to questions about the competition from other companies such as Swiss supermarket Migros, which makes the coffee pods for Nespresso machines. Duvoisin says the competition is not affecting Nespresso sales and he sees the consumer insights from selling direct to the consumer as invaluable to Nestle. Nespresso's next challenge is markets in the U.S., China and emerging markets. He sees the shift from tea to coffee in China as a very gradual one. Nestle's focus is on making the coffee experience good for consumers so that they stay with Nestle for a long time. Strategy in the U.S. will focus on the long cup of coffee with milk and not on the espresso. This he sees as a more feminine experience, more relaxed and smoother. TV spots in the U.S. feature actress Penelope Cruz.

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With gas prices at $1.98 a gallon and crude at $55 a barrel in November and falling further are Americans going to need some special incentives or a gas tax not to go back to low fuel efficency or large vehicles? With about $1 trillion dollars of consumer debt in credit cards, auto and other loans and student loans, zero savings rate, and heavily in debt, and millions under water on their mortgages, the incentive is in the need to use the savings from lower gasoline bills to paydown debt. There is also the shift to parttime workers in the workforce a long term structural change similar to Japan after the economy became stagnant there. Parttime work means lower incomes and uncertain future and need to spend carefully. All these things will likely make the shift to higher fuel economy permanent, including legislative mandates, and new management at the automakers committed to serious conservation and the environment if government aid money brings new management at GM. And public habits are changing in how much and where they drive in pickups and SUV's, many using smaller cars and letting the SUV sit on the driveway for 2 or 3 car families....

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Ford's decision to bring its European small car product across the pond so to speak after such a long time is seen as Ford finally seeing the Light.

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WSJ report on how the much awaited debate went with Harris in words and body language defining Trump, and the moderators David Muir and Linsey Davis doing something that had not happened before by correcting misstatement of facts on the spot. Misstatement of facts in a society that bases itself on science and scientific observation may be the defining feature of this lost decade, when little was done by the educated reporters and the journalism community about it- till now. Yet this is only the beginning in a long road back for America.

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Senator Manchin of West Virginia secured a transitional use of coal, oil and natural gas in the Biden legislation including Inflation Reduction Act. The Biden team eventually accepted the need for use of oil and natural gas in the transition to clean energy. During the first Trump term the support for fossil fuels was tempered by the fact that industries looked at the situation in the long term as administrations can change every 4 years, and continued the transition to clean energy. The combination of these factors means that the transition to clean energy continues in some form.

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Chinese president Xi Jinping is learning from the country's Covid experience in the way Biden and Democrats learned from their initial push for tighter restrictions in 2020-2021. Most covid restrictions, quarantines, testing is being lifted in China and efforts are being made to stabilize the economy hurt by frequent lockdowns, and a new path is being taken that responds to the Covid lockdown fatigue of the people.  This will lower Chinese growth below the central bank forecast of 3.3% for 2023, yet it also offers a learning curve for the Chinese leadership and new government that was put in place after the CCP party congress in 2022. This may be experimental in the short run but offer benefits for China and the world in the long term. For the first time it means China's trade tensions with the US are turning the corner in a way no number of tariffs and rhetoric could do between the two countries. The evidence- China's exports to the US have declined by 25% already in the last few months. Exports to the EU have declined as well by 11%. China's trade surplus in November 2022 showed a drop to $70 billion from $85 billion in October. ...

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The Independence Hall Philadelphia, speech by Joe Biden was in retrospect a turning point in America from the chaotic politics of the last 5 years, following a decades long fracturing of the social fabric of America. That fracturing had many causes, all of which have been identified by president Biden and leaders in Congress such as Mr. Schumer and Senators Coon, Hickenlooper, and others, who are working nonstop on legislation and funding of America's new priorities. These are priorities of protecting working class families, building their savings, supporting education and healthcare for working class families, building back better America's crumbling infrastructure, tackling climate change, financing renewable energy, rebuilding America as a manufacturing leader for the world. It is because of this effort that candidates who support this effort prevailed in Pennsylvania, Nevada, and Arizona for Democrats to retain the Senate and be competitive in the House of Representatives. Only complacency led to unexpected losses in New York state for the House of Representatives leading to loss of the House by a small margin. This NYT report looks at what happened in 2022 and what this means for securing the country's key priorities to build hope for the future of America and of the free world.  ...

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Exxon is looking for a big oil dealer in the shale patch in the US. It is considering the acquisition of shale company Pioneer Natural Resources with a market cap of $49 billion. Exxon wants to make use of its windfall profits of the last year to good use. An acquisition of Dallas based Pioneer would give Exxon a dominant position in the West Permian basin of Texas and New Mexico. Exxon made windfall profits of $56 billion in 2022 after the jump in oil prices following the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Based in Irving, Texas, it is heavily invested in fossil fuel assets and its thinking is that fossil fuels are here for a long time as it has not made a significant shift to renewable energy. During the cutoff of Russian oil supplies Europe has depended on LNG supplies from the US and Qatar, and on Norway for increased oil and gas supplies. President Biden included drilling concessions in some of the legislation passed in Congress and Conoco plans to drill in Alaska. The transitional period has gained support in places like the US and Norway following the need to support the European Union and Germany in the crisis. This gives oil companies some time to sort out their future plans for renewable investments. ...

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No one in Northern Ireland wants to go back to the sectarian clashes of the twentieth century says one resident of the region. Most people recall the divided barricaded border with watchtowers and helicopters with extreme anguish. All that was dismantled long ago. But Northern Ireland still looks to the outside for help. Will president Biden bring new investment in the region? Can the Sinn Fein and DUP be persuaded to work together with US participation. A new generation has moved away from the sectarian to the economic issues of the cost of living and provision of public services in education and healthcare across the region. This was affirmed by Sinn Fein winning 27 seats the largest bloc in the 2022 election where focus was on economic issues and the quality of life. Because of Mr. Biden's very personal connection to Ireland there is much hope in Ireland for a new chapter to be written again. There is also a different sentiment in Britain with Keir Starmer's experience as human rights adviser to the Northern Ireland Policing Board. Starmer attributes his decision to go into politics to this experience seeing the changes he could make in Northern Ireland from the inside. The switch to a government by Labour could come at a good time for Northern Ireland and for Scotland.  ...

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Russian president Putin may have exacerbated the very thing he feared- a deepening demographic crisis in Russia. This report in the Financial Times says excess mortality was already one of the highest from the coronavirus- about 1 million compared to official figures of 360,000. During the 1990's Russia had gone through a demographic decline with fewer births after the fall of the Soviet Union and unstable conditions in the economy.  During the pandemic there was outward migration from Russia as a result of people wanting access to vaccines other than the local vaccine, says FT.  In an interview last November Mr. Putin talked about the dangers to Russian statehood and to the economy from a drop in births and falling population. The war has worsened this situation as the FT says about 70,000 highly educated people left the country in March and another 70,000 are expected to leave in April. The response of Europe and the US to the Ukraine invasion with moves that affect the Russian economy could lead to drop in jobs and living standards that lead to a further drop in births, says FT. This may be a more serious way in which Mr. Putin may have neglected to consider Russia's own long term interests in invading its neighbor.   ...

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The Nixon Mao meeting of 1972 now seems a very long time ago. Little is mentioned here in this WSJ report on what was happening inside China in 1972. The Great Proletarian Cultural Revolution had severely divided the Communist Party. This was followed by the Lin Piao episode in which the defense minister clashed with Mao leading to a complete loss of confidence in the stability of the leadership. China sought the meeting and Chou-en-lai, premier and Mao's minister for foreign relations, was eager to seek a new relationship with the US. The period 1960-1970 had pushed China back 10-20 years in its effort to develop an industrial economy.  The event is presented as one in which the two countries were meeting at the same level after the Korean War, which was not the case. This report says it was the $3 trillion in US and foreign investment that helped an economy the size of India in 1972 to emerge into what it is today, much larger than India. This report goes on to cite Foreign Affairs and other authors who write that Mr. Kissinger and Mr Nixon saw this as a self-promotional event in contrast to the situation Chou-en-lai, the Chinese premier faced during that difficult time in China's history. ...

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TSMC will build a third plant in Arizona with the $6.6 billion in grants it gets from Biden's CHIPS Act. It will increase its investment in the US from $40 billion to $65 billion, essential to make the US a manufacturing hub for semiconductors. Intel, Samsung and other companies are making similar investments in the US in semiconductor plants. After years of post Reagan/Friedman period orthodox economics that led to the US chip industry and other advanced manufacturing following textiles to Asia, the US is making its policies follow actual practice and experience. This experience shows that in semiconductors with long lead times of a decade to build plants the country which supports its semiconductor industry gets ahead while others following orthodox Reagan/Friedman period economics fall behind. This has revealed the danger of a theoretical economic textbook approach that doesn't work and endangers American manufacturing and technological leadership. A culture wrapped around the textbook approach has led to the US and the EU, India, losing their competitive advantages and losing manufacturing in industry after industry, with loss of millions of jobs and deindustrializing. It has also led to decline and increasing lack of economic opportunity in towns and communities dependent on this manufacturing across the US and the European Union. ...

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The Supreme Court of the US lets stand the ruling of lower courts and the National Labor Relations Board that says unions can organize and represent workers on the docks in container terminal at South Charleston. The Charleston terminal is in right-to-work state South Carolina. It is the fourth largest container terminal on the East Coast after NY NJ Terminal, Port of Savannah Terminal, and Port of Virginia. A new terminal is being built at Savannah on 395 acres to handle addition 2 million containers per year. Savannah, Georgia is another right-to-work state. Georgia Ports Authority now says it is talking to the ILA and the decision for union labor will not affect its plans for expansion. The Biden administration has supported cost of living action through increase in workers wages and helping workers organize through unions after a long period when labor was not able to push for a fair wage and the relationships between labor and employers were excessively drifting against workers. Rail strikes were settled with an agreement, auto strikes were settled with Biden on the picket lines in Detroit for the United Auto workers. International Longshoremans Association labor efforts at NLRB are part of this story of Biden and the changing face of labor in the US.   ...

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David Brooks says one of the good things about the ugly election campaign of 2016 and its depletion of moral capital, is the way people are responding to it by finding their voice for something better and uplifting. He cites Michelle Obama as one example of someone who acts not as a politician but as a mother in her behaviour and talk. He praises Hillary Clinton for adopting this Michelle tone and giving 3 answers he calls great in the final debate with Trump. The answers came on the questions about Trump and denigration of women,  on the contrast between the experience gained on a television show "Apprentice," and the experience of Clinton as senator and secretary of state. Brooks says they were given in a gradual understated manner, showing moral sentiment and a quiet contempt, similar to how a mother or parent would respond and not a politician. Another way to look at it is that the contrast was so great between her and her opponent's experience and respect for parenthood, and the campaign so long with so many people who had shown indifference when they should have known and done better, that Hillary Clinton simply stood her own ground based on her own Protestant Methodist faith and conviction.  ...

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Grady Cash is an active runner at age 71. A sports hernia sidelined him at age 50 but he has found his way back into running. After a 2 year hiatus he returned to the track. He entered his first national track and field competition in 2004, and by 2015 eleven years later he was running in the 200 metres at the 2015 USATF Masters Indoor Track and Field Championships. Here he cam in last and had a revelation. Most of the runners were shaped differently than the long distance 1500 metres runners. These people were V shaped with tiny waists, broad shoulders and big leg muscles. From this he learned to do weightlifting at a local gym in Nashville and hired a trainer. After his retirement from financial planning he set up his own routine. He runs with a group at the Vanderbilt University track two afternoons a week ages from mid 20's to 76. A typical workout is eight repetitions of 200 metres that are sequentially faster. He does easy recovery runs on the trails. Mot important he tries to remain injury fee in the kind of routine he selects and listens to his body all the time not to overwork it and run  injury free the next day.  ...

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The RNC speech of the former president is described by the WSJ Editorial Board as long and rambling for 90 minutes after a good start becoming a typical speech that did not broaden the appeal, and with its random comments lacking clarity. The former president's claims on crime up when it is actually down by 15% according to FBI. On inflation and cost of living the inflation peaked at 9% is now down to 3% in 2023 with cost of living actions by Biden and Powell. The former president's solution to "Drill, baby drill," would only affect gas prices a bit, and do nothing for the principal causes of inflation in housing, in rental of apartments, in prices of automobiles and auto repairs, and in cost of drugs, student loans. Only a concerted action on all fronts as Biden and Powell have done would work, along with large investments in American manufacturing and jobs, which can only be done if no tax cuts are made for the wealthy not in the Republican platform. This means the hundreds of thousands of job creation each month happening now will stall and inflation from supply chains in China will be harder to control especially with a 60% Trump proposed tariff on Chinese imports. ...

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The First Letter to the Editor in Lyrarc.com July 27, 2016 more true in 2024- "What is missing today is a sense of hope and optimism about the future compared to the early postwar period. There was much less - no ipads or iphones, just radio - much less of everything we take for granted, but there was hope, optimism about the future, a sense of can do and endless possibilities... A singular feature was the broader consensus to do good and to do right, a larger sense of public spiritedness in politics and society." To restore hope, optimism, one must judge our actions by words of George Washington in a letter to Thomas Jefferson Feb. 1783-  "To merit the approbation of good and virtuous men  is the height of my ambition, and will be a full compensation for all my toils and sufferings in the long and painful contest in which we have been engaged." Without this Jeffersons words about "holding these truths to be self-evident, that all men are created equal and are endowed by their creator with some inalienable rights," that inspired the world for 250 years would have come to nought.   ...