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Iran Nuclear Pact Faces an Array of Opposing Forces
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Sanger, Erlanger and Rudoren describe in detail the differing interests of Congress, the Obama administration, the Iranian hardliners around Khamanei, the Israelis, the Europeans, and the Russians each quietly pushing its own interests. Beyond the physics of a deal, a Republican Congress, Democrat Obama and Iranian hardliner Khamanei, each are trying to get their own narrative to look right with public opinion they face, that they have not backed down. The Israelis find any deal unacceptable and reject even a small lifting of sanctions, because of the "existential" threat. Add to this Sunni Saudi Arabia which says it will match Shiite Iranian capabilities with their own uranium enrichment facilities if Iran is allowed to retain capabilities. And economic interests also figure into this- Russian interest is in keeping Iranian oil off the market as long as possible so that oil prices do not fall further in 2015, which means delay an agreement as long as possible. The French see the Obama administration as likely to give too much away for an agreement and want tougher terms.
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With Iran's right to enrichment accepted by the Obama administration, Iran sees its goals have been achieved. For the Obama administration this is a right to enrich for peaceful uses of nuclear energy and limiting the enrichment with conditionality. There is also the heavy water reactor at Arak and possible hidden facilities, which have to be included in a future agreement in a series of smaller agreements as trust and credibility is gained on both sides- as Iran's isolation decreases and climate of discourse with the outside world improves.
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