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Lower Gas Prices Don’t Make Americans Feel Rich
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With gas prices at $1.98 a gallon and crude at $55 a barrel in November and falling further are Americans going to need some special incentives or a gas tax not to go back to low fuel efficency or large vehicles? With about $1 trillion dollars of consumer debt in credit cards, auto and other loans and student loans, zero savings rate, and heavily in debt, and millions under water on their mortgages, the incentive is in the need to use the savings from lower gasoline bills to paydown debt. There is also the shift to parttime workers in the workforce a long term structural change similar to Japan after the economy became stagnant there. Parttime work means lower incomes and uncertain future and need to spend carefully. All these things will likely make the shift to higher fuel economy permanent, including legislative mandates, and new management at the automakers committed to serious conservation and the environment if government aid money brings new management at GM. And public habits are changing in how much and where they drive in pickups and SUV's, many using smaller cars and letting the SUV sit on the driveway for 2 or 3 car families.
Sinking demand in 2008 and the Detroit automakers future.
02/13/2006
Sinking demand is casting a long shadow on the future of Detroit automakers, not the sinking demand of the 3rd quarter which was bad, but the sinking demand for the 4th quarter 2008 and in 2009. Something that GM and Ford with their optimistic forecasts of 13-14 million vehicles for 2009 as stated in theSenate on November 18, 2008 by their CEO's, may have missed as sales may be in the neighborhood of 10 million or lower in 2009.
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Marchionne has kept many of the managers from the previous Chrysler. Jim Press is deputy CEO and adviser. He came from Toyota. Everything else will change. He is flattening the organization structure to improve communication and speed. Smaller car lineup will replace the prior lineup, and Fiat's engine technology will provide help for fuel efficient cars.
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GM faces intense competition in a shrinking market. And building appeal to younger demographics customers is critical to GM.
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