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Hillary Clinton narrowly loses the Michigan primary to Bernie Sanders in March 2016, as the Sanders campaign focusses on Clinton's support for trade agreements that hurt American workers and lead to loss of manufacturing jobs. About three fifths of voters in the Michigan primary considered this a major issue. Many less educated younger workers see their job prospects diminish and wages drop with free trade that hurts American manufacturing jobs. Bill Clinton signed the NAFTA agreement with Mexico, and as a member of the Obama administration Clinton supported the Trans Pacific Trade Agreement, later opposing TPP when she left the cabinet. Sentiment against trade that hurts manufacturing jobs in the U.S. is strongest in midwestern states such as Michigan, Ohio and Illinois. This was also a major issue benefitting the Liberals under Justin Trudeau who won in Canada's industrial Ontario province which has suffered hollowing out and loss of manufacturing jobs under the Conservative Harper administration. In the U.S. the issue goes back to the Clinton Administration for two decades. New jobs created by Apple, Google, and other tech companies pale in comparison with the industrial jobs created in another era that benefitted working class families. This issue and high unemployment or under employment, lower wages for working class families, was a major issue in the 2016 U.S. presidential election campaign. Widening wealth disparities, and lack of upward mobility, high tution and healthcare costs for ordinary families, dominated the campaign in the U.S....

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The NYT editorial talks about growing inequality and the falling back of both the people below the poverty line defined as $22,205 for afamily of four, and the falling back of the middle class. According to the Census Bureau median household income fell in 2008 to $50,300 from 52,200 in 2007. Economists Piketty and Saez found that from 2002 to 2007 the top 1% of households- those making ,ore than $400,000 a yea- received two thirds of the USA's total income gains, largest sine the 1920's.

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After public opinion comes out against it, the Obama administration decides to end the NSA's bulk collection of phone data program in March 2014. Under the decision the phone companies will not be required to keep the data for longer than 18 months, as it was determined that older data was not as useful. And the specific phone records can now be obtained ony after permission from a judge with a new kind of court order. The bulk collection of phone data program was justified by Section 215 of the Patriot Act, passed under the Bush administration to tackle terrorist threats following the 9/11 attacks. That program was outside any judical oversight. In 2006 the Bush administration Justice Department had the Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court authorize the program. Under Section 215 the FBI is able to get court orders for records relevant to an investigation and this authority was broadly interpreted as allowing NSA collection of bulk phone data.

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The dollar is not expected to suffer asharp drop even though problems of increasing debt, and China's pegging of the yuan to the dollar remain for the future.

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U.S. Vice President Biden and Vice President Xi Jinping visited a high school in Dujianyan, in Sichuan province, China. Xi Jinping is expected to be the new President of China in 2013. This is the first time he has spent extensive time with a U.S. leader. Xi Jinping shared his experiences of meeting with ordinary citizens with Joe Biden. Xi's daughter is a student at Harvard University. He showed considerable interest in the political situation and debt ceiling negotiations in the U.S. Li Keqiang, who is close to Premier Wen Biao, is expected to become prime minister of China in 2013. Li gave a speech to students at the University of Hong Kong during the Biden visit with Jinping, and at one point talked to students in English.

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This article in the NYT explains why the loss of jobs particularly in the auto industry to Mexico, with the experience of NAFTA passed by president Bill Clinton, has caused widespread opposition to the TPP trade agreement proposed by president Obama. Both Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump in 2016 oppose the TPP.

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Dealogic reports show 64 U.S. listed IPO's raised $16.8 billion in the first 5 months of 2013, up from the $13.1 billion raised by 73 companies in the same period in 2012. Recent price gains by IPO's are driven by the lack of alternatives to stocks for investors in a low interest rate environment.

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U.S. naval exercizes in Hawaii (Pacific Rim) which include China, and the naval exercizes at Subic Bay intended to counter China in the Pacific.

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Laura Tyson says jobs and the economy should be the top priority. On the deficit front cost containment reform in health care and agradual multi year plan for debt reduction are priorities.

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What the French take for granted today- 99% of the French people are covered by national health care- started when Charles De Gaulle faced rising scial discontent in the postwar period, and accepted a demand for worker protections. During the postwar period Frenchmen are paying higher taxes, but in the first 30 years because French salaries were growing fast this was not noticeable. With slow growth and rising healthcare costs its getting harder to increase these tax deductions for overall social security, which have reached one third of apaycheck at the low end, say for ataxi driver in Marseilles. So you have the government running deficits of $15 billion in 2004, even after increasing co-payments for routine care and doctors visits. Experts say this could reach $40 billion in 2010 and $90 billion in 2020. In 2007 health care cost the government $300 billion, or 11 % of GDP, (OECD numbers) and the bureaucracy and rules are getting more complicated. This 11% is well below what Americans pay for asystem that leaves out about 50 million people. France ranked 8th on the OECD list in cost per capita, the US at the top. And the French life expectancy is higher at 80.98 vs. 78.11 for the USA, higher by about 3 years. For this cost the system is cost effective according to the OECD. And the French find the American debate abouthealthcare public option "altogether surreal", as the newspaper Le Monde put it. To keep the system in viable form the government is increasing copayments, such as the decrease in reimbursements from 80% to 65% for routine care and doctors visits in 2004. As aresult the deficit dropped to $6 billion in 2008. ut the global economic crisis and rising unemployment has made this grow to estimated $13 billion for 2009. Measures under consideration: increasing hospitalization copayments to $28 a day from $22. To fill this substantial gap for routine care and other costs the French system has private insurance companies called mutuals that offer different policies. Which is where the Fench notion for equal treatment in health care gets distorted because different people can have different coverage. The French though compare their system to the British system and say theirs is not as nationalized as it appears and the Brisih one is much more so. The French system though supervised by the government is different from government run health care as in Britain. French people are free to choose their own doctor who is often a private practitioner. ...

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Prof. Calomiris of Columbia University, says the U.S. Federal Reserve should increase the cash reserve requirement for U.S. banks to prevent a surge in inflation. He points out that excesss reserves at banks stand at about $1.5 trillion. He suggests the Fed should take early action to prevent a jump in lending and credit creation- a pattern seen in the past after several years of dampened credit and lending.

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Bernstein Global Research looked into how long it takes to regain losses if one remained fully invested in the market with a diversified portfolio. For the 12 month period starting July 1, 1931, with 67% decline the research showed it took 39 months to be made whole and recover the losses. For the 12 month period starting March 1, 2008, with a 43% decline the research shows it took 22 months to be made whole and recover the losses.

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The corn crop estimate for 2008 by USDA economists is 13.1 billon bushels vs 12.1 in 2007 a drop of 7.3%. Ethanol industry will use 4 billion bushels of this from the crop collected in autumn. This corn crop will be used by food companies into late 2009 for everything fom feeding cattle and pigs and dairy cows to making soft drinks and breakfast cereal and a host of other fod products. USDA forecasts a price of $5.50 per bushel for 2008 compared to $4.40 for 2007. USDA expects Consumer Price Index for food to go up 5% in 2008. Other experts expect it to be higher and go into 2009. At the same time the FDA forecasts that for grain the world will produce more grain in 2008 than it will use helping build stockpiles for wheat and rice. Reason for this is that governments are responding to current shortages by attracting more investment and freeing up more land for food production. In the US land will shift from corn and cotton to more profitable crops like wheat and soyabeans.

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This Journal editorial says Romney is cautious and conservative in his politics, and finds his ideas for a value added tax problematic. It sees the need for Ron Paul's supporters in a successful Republican campaign in 2012 and critical for governing in 2013, because of Paul's genuine desire for change to the status quo. Of Santorum the Journal says there is need to broaden the economic message beyond reducing taxes for manufacturing companies, and going beyond the moral fervor to show how he would revive the U.S. economy and jobs growth.

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The memo to U.S. president Reagan written by his economic advisors in November 1980 before his first inauguration. Inflation was running at 13% and the economic problems looked as intractable as they do today. Advisors included Milton Friedman and George Shultz. The memo called for setting steady policies for the long run to encourage investment and growth, and at the same time steady monetary policy. This is different from the repeated quantitative easing efforts by the Federal Reserve responding to financial markets, and the Obama administration's stimulus efforts that have not led to long term growth. On the long term perspective the memo said: "The need for a long-term point of view is essential to allow for the time, the coherence, and the predictability so necessary for success." The memo was released by George Shultz.