LyrArc Article Gist
Barley points out that Russia has two strengths as it tackles S&P's downgrade of its credit rating. The downgrade was a result of large capital outflows. He cites Moody's for the low level of government debt of about 13.5% of GDP in 2013, or about $265 billion. Interest payments on debt are about 1.7% of government revenues in 2014. And Russia has $442 billion in foreign exchange reserves as of April 1, to support its efforts and stabilize the economy. The weakness is that Russia depends on oil and gas exports for half of government revenues and 67% of exports, according to Moody's. Higher interest costs on Russia's bonds are one cost of the crisis, bonds due in 2023 have a yield of 5.6%, according to TradeWeb. This yield could go up higher.

LyrArc Article Gist
Hysteresis is the term used for entrenched stubborn unemployment especially as workers stay on the job market for so long that they become dispirited and permanently unemployed. Britain's New Deal policies introduced by the Labor party do not work well in such situations because forcing people to find jobs has to be accompanied by jobs being available. The most successful so far are job subsidizing programs like Germany's Kurzarbeit. Kurzabeit encourages companies to adopt shorter working hours and reduce job losses and layoffs, because 60% of the lost income is paid to workers by the government. Since September 2008 the numbers taking advantage of this scheme went up from 80,000 to 1.4 million in June 2009. At present the OECD counts 22 governments that support a shorter working week to reduce job losses.

LyrArc Article Gist
GM is willing to sell amajority stake in Opel to the German government. Opel employees want to see that happen, as they say GM never understood Opel's potential. The unions favor this with IG Metall saying about 400,000 jobs will be affected in the car and related businesses with an Opel collapse. And directly at Opel in Russelsheim near Frankfurt the plants employ 29,000 German workers. This is now a big issue in Germany. The bailout of German banks is as unpopular in Germany as it is with Americans, with their own bailout of banks and financial institutions. And Angela Merkel's Christian Democrats are seeing polls showing voters shifting allegiance to the Free Democrats, which reflects opinion of people in smaller independent businesses unhappy with the bank bailouts.

LyrArc Article Gist
The consumer confidence index of the Conference Board declined to 61% in September 2008 and to 38% in October 2008 in a survey of 5000 households. THe index reache 100 in 1985 and 38 is the lowest its recorded since the index was started in 1967. The survey showed more than half the respondents worried about the job market deteriorating further. About 760,000 jobs were lost for the 9 months to September 2008, the Labor Department reports. And home prices declined 16.6% in August compared with a year ago for 20 cities, the biggest annual drop in the history of the Case Shiller Index, for Home Prices released by Standard and Poors. Phoenix and Las Vegas declined by 30% and Los Angeles,Miami, San Diego and San Francisco decline by 25%.

LyrArc Article Gist
The India- U.S. trade deal after the negotiations and the visit of the Indian prime minister to the U.S. is expected to take additional time. The U.S. wanted to see a 20% duty on mobile phones and ethernet switches to be reduced, greater access to the Indian market for medical devices such as stents and knee implants, and greater access for dairy, agricultural products. Making these products affordable in India is a goal of the government preventing it from making concessions. India wants preferential access to the U.S. market as a developing country restored under the Generalized System of Preferences.  A comprehensive trade deal would have to include issues of intellectual property, e-commerce, and the sensitive issue of H1B visas. Commerce minister Piyush Goyal led negotiations for India and Foreign Secretary Vijay Gokhale said the two sides "narrowed" down their differences. India's Jio from Reliance Group has hugely reduced the price of mobile phones and mobile data making it accessible with 4G across the country at prices that are the lowest in the world. The introduction of a universal health care program requires bringing down the price of medical products to improve access to modern medicine. This means less room for American products that would increase the price and reduce access in a vast developing country. India is also playing catchup in these technologies so that there is less room for unrestricted entry in the Indian market.  Efforts were made to increase trade and investment in India with the help of Mr. Bloomberg during the visit of the prime minister, and the Bill Gates Foundation continued its commitment to public welfare gains in India in the fields of sanitation, hygiene and healthcare.  ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The European Union response to Britain's decision to begin negotiations to leave the EU is a tough one that presents serious problems for Britain. EU Council president, Donald Tusk said that no talks on Britain's future trading relationship with the EU could take place till all the issues relating to Britain leaving have been resolved. Included is a bill of 60 billion euros, according to European authorites, for settling British committments in the EU. Tusk also said the EU wanted to see the rights of the 3 million EU citizens living in the EU, and the 1 million British citizens in the EU protected as a priority in negotiations. Without negotiations on a future trading relationship Britain faces tariffs and duties putting it at a disadvantage after the exit. Talks also cannot extend beyond March 2019 or new approval is needed from 27 EU states. The European parliament also has veto rights if the agreement is not seen as strong enough for the EU. Tusk says that Brexit has made the EU more united. Chancellor Merkel of Gemany has also separated exit from future trading relationship negotiations, the second only being discussed after the first is complete. The issue of Scottish independence also hangs in the balance, as the Scottish parliamentary leader Jack Salmond refused to accept prime minister May's point that her own constituency Islington had voted against Brexit yet she was negotiating for the whole of UK- Salmond responded in parliament that not taking Scotland's interests into account after it had voted against Brexit made "Scottish independence inevitable." The EU leaders are taking a calmer approach, in contrast to the more nationalist appeal in parliament to Tory back benches of prime minister May with promises she may have difficulty keeping.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip points out that the stronger dollar in 2018 is creating serious problems for Argentina, and will have an effect on Turkey, Indonesia and other developing countries. Dollarization hurts because it increases debt as debt servicing becomes costlier with dollar denominated debt and imports denominated in dollars become costlier. The dollar has increased in importance in the global economy. This is why the economic growth has suffered in developing countries in 2018. It is also why president Trump believes he can cut off Iran from the U.S. banking system to increase chance of new negotiations to fix flaws in the Iran nuclear deal, says Ip.   Argentina has seen internal problems compounded by the rising dollar causing the peso to drop by 17% so far in 2018. 88% of Argentina's imports are denominated in dollars. A rising dollar means it costs more in pesos for imports. Argentina's different levels of government have $98 billion in dollar denominated debt, and private sector has an additional $68 billion, the total being a third of its GDP. A decline in the peso means this is harder to pay off. About 40% of world trade, according to Harvard economist Gita Gopinath, is invoiced in U.S. dollars, four times U.S. share of world trade, and developing countries together owe $2 trillion in dollar denominated debt according to BIS. This makes it harder for developing countries such as Indonesia, Turkey, India, Argentina, Brazil, as they now face rising oil prices in combination with a rising dollar. In Argentina a poor crop for soyabeans and other agricultural exports in 2018 creates additional woes.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Anne Lukits brings this exceptional bit of evidence about improved parenting and family life. Only about 15% of families in a University of British Columbia research study had fathers who shared equally in household work with mothers. About 65% of fathers and 14% of mothers reported inconsistent behaviour about their beliefs in gender roles and how they acted at home. Girls were seen as more likely to pursue careers in science and nontraditional fields if fathers played out their beliefs in real life by taking active part in household work, from doing the laundry, washing dishes, vacuuming and cooking meals. The study is discussed in the August 2014 issue of Psychological Science. This means that only one in four fathers who believe women should not have to do all the household work and work outside in paid jobs, actually play their beliefs out in real life roles in the home by sharing in the household work. Other aspects of this that are still to be researched are how much an active role by fathers in the home can improve the number of meals that are home cooked with fresh ingredients, with fathers taking daughters or sons out to fresh food markets, which have a significant bearing on how families can eat healthy and pass this onto the next generation. An unnoticed aspect of this is that it improves the overall quality of life for families through healthy eating and healthy living. When companies recognize this and encourage their employees with some extra time for family acitivity and work the overall benefits would include- healthier employees able to do more productive work in shorter time, less paid for employee medical coverage, and healthier members of society....

LyrArc Article Gist
Gregory White and Anton Troianovski provide this exceptional account of how Russian president Putin miscalculated all through 2013 and 2014 about the way Germany and the EU would respond to Russia's actions in Ukraine. Putin also according to other accounts miscalculated how Saudi Arabia and OPEC nations would act on maintaining oil production in the middle of a slowdown in the economies of Asia and Europe. A combination of events beyond his control such as the economic slowdown in the second half of 2014, with the miscalculations on OPEC price moves particularly following Russia's failed Syrian intervention disrupting Saudi-Russian relations, caused the damage. Major miscalculations were made about German cooperation in the face of Putin's moves- the changed convictions of German chancellor Merkel about Russian intentions following repeated Ukraine interventions, and changes in German public opinion following the downing of a Malaysian airliner flight in which many Dutch citizens lost their lives. Putin used subterfuge to coverup his actions making his story line less credible with Germans with each repetition. The result of these miscalculations and lost confidence in Russia's economy and policymaking is that the Ruble dropped to 62 to the dollar, losing nearly half its value in 2014, and a deep recession expected in 2015. Even though Russian takeover in Crimea enjoys support and Putin still has widespread support for nationalist policy with a tightly controlled media, many officials in the government and business leaders warned about the dangers for Russia's economy in 2014. Former finance minister Kudrin, and the head of Sberbank, who were principal architects for Russian finances and economic policy reforms, were clear about the dangers. Only by Nov- Dec 2014 were their voices being heard. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Spain's Socialist Party emerged as the largest party in parliament with 123 seats in the Spain's 2019 general election. The Socialists increased their share of the vote from 23% in the 2016 elections to 29%. With the help of the centre left Podemos Party led by Pablo Iglesias it has 165 seats in the 350 member parliament, 11 short of a majority. Its leader Pedro Sanchez who called the snap election after a no confidence vote in 2018 brought the Socialist Party to power, said after the win that he would work to reduce inequality, promote co-existence and women's rights. Spain's Popular Party (Partido Popular) which has alternately governed Spain with the Socialist Party since the shift from the Franco era, and which governed Spain till March 2018, won just 66 seats down from 137 in the last parliament.  It lost support to the far right nationalist Vox Party which opposes secessionist sentiment in Catalonia. Vox won 10% of the vote and won 24 seats in parliament. The right parties in Spain are now fragmented with the Ciudadanois party a centre right party winning 57 seats.  A coalition with Ciudadanos is unlikely, and the Socialist party with its ally Podemos party looks for support from other parties. It will try to stay away from secessionist parties from Catalonia because of the general sentiment in Spain opposing the separation of Catalonia from Spain. Turnout was 76% up by 9% from the last election. The Secesionist ERC party in Catalonia has 15 seats.  The right wing parties Popular Party, Ciudadanos and Vox Party fought the campaign saying the Socialist Party supported Catalan separatism. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The National Assessment of Education Progress, NAEP, which is a report card of educational levels in the U.S. secondary school system shows 36% of fourth graders in the U.S. are proficient in reading for 2017. For eighth graders this drops to 34% in 2017. This shows that a little over a third of fourth and eight graders are achieving proficiency in reading, a glaring sign of failure leaving about two thirds of young people behind. With declining level of reading proficiency and proliferation of social media, the bottom 25% are faring much worse than even this dismal result.

Between 2015 and 2017 there was no improvement in NAEP scores.

LyrArc Article Gist
In central Switzerland the Trift  Glacier is nowhere to be seen. In its place is the Trift bridge, a valley and a lake that is a popular destination for hikers. Like thousands of glaciers elsewhere it has melted away with climate change. Switzerland's 1500 glaciers and melting ice generates hydropower that powers 60 percent of the country's electricity. More melting ice means an increase in hydropower generation by 4 percent. Yet this is temporary. Eventually the melting glaciers from climate change mean fewer glaciers and less hydropower. The Alps have the most glaciers in Europe and provide the bulk of Europe's hydropower. Multimedia reporter Ben Solomon provides an exciting look at awesome pictures and media showing the glaciers, mountain generating plants and hydropower in the Alps. A rare look inside the hydropower that produces 16% of the world's electricity, that is now endangered. Researchers at the Federal Institute of Technology in Zurich have a solution- to use the topography created by the melting glaciers including new lakes and areas that can be made into reservoirs that would be used to generate electricity. The glaciers in the Aletsch part of the Alps are one such region being studied. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Prof. Peterson of Harvard and Hanushek of the Hoover Institution, authors with Woessmann of the book "Endangering Prosperity: A Global View of the American School," offer some startling reminders about the importance of education to economic growth and incomes in countries. Simply by raising the math standards in the U.S. to the higher standards in Canada would raise GDP by three fourths of one percentage point. One advantage that the U.S. enjoys comes from its good university systems, open markets, rule of law, tax rates, and open immigration policies, which give it about two thirds of a percentage point in higher GDP growth per year. The estimates are from the authors calculations. For the period 1960-2009, a period of rapid growth in Asian countries Korea, Taiwan, Singapore and Hong Kong, higher test scores in math and reading compared to the wrold average as measured by NAEP test and PISA, have led to 2% higher GDP growth. NAEP shows only 32% of U.S. high school students proficient in math compared to 45% in Germany and 49% in Canada and 63% in Singapore. By contrast to Korea and Taiwan, Peru, Argentina, the Philippines and S. Africa have about 2% less in GDP growth because of lower scores compared to the world average....

LyrArc Article Gist
A report by international inspectors says Greece's funding requirements can be met only if bondholders such as French and German banks take writedowns of 60%, or if more loans are made to Greece more than planned. This reinforces Germany's position that Greece's debt be reduced to less than 50% for a long term sustainable solution. Volker Kauder, conservative leader in Germany's parliament, told the German weekly Der Spiegel, "the governments in Europe are going to have to get used to this," (the German position). Germany opposes using the ECB to print more euros to make loans to the eurozone bailout fund, the EFSF, which would relax prudent financial practice. After warnings from Kauder and other German parliament members, Merkel is staying firm about the German position. German law requires Merkel to get approval from a parliamentary budget committee for any additional loans.

LyrArc Article Gist
The crisis facing investment bank Jefferies Group about the extent of its holdings of European sovereign debt. Jefferies faces rumors about its financial condition. The desperate effort of CEO Handler to contain the crisis by listing online its holdings of debt by country and maturity with every ID number for every bond to show that it was not using credit default swaps to hedge investments. Shares of Jefferies Group fell 20% in October and 60% for 2011. As a safety measure Handler sold off $1.1 billion of sovereign debt of Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain in November, and continued to reduce its exposure during the last week of November 2011. The collapse of MF Global for making large bets on European sovereign debt followed by crisis in market confidence was the background in which Jefferies Group fought for survival.

LyrArc Article Gist
Amazon's revenue for 4th quarter 2011 increased 35% to $17.4 billon. Profit for the 4th quarter 2011 declined by 57% over prior year quarter, as Amazon increased hiring, and invested in warehouses, technology and in Kindle electronic promotional sales. Operating expenses were up 38% from the prior year quarter. Operating margin was 1.5%, declining from 3.8% in the prior year quarter, but up from 0.7% in third quarter 2011. Analysts estimate that Amazon sells the Kindle at a loss of $15 per unit. Kindle Fire sales were up to an estimated 6 million units for the 4th quarter 2011. Hiring jumped and employee count was up 67% for 2011 over the prior year, up to 56,200 employees. Forrester Research estimates that overall internet sales growth for 2011 was 10%, showing that Amazon sales growth was much faster.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr Niederauer, CEO of NYSE Euronext, who will be the CEO of a combined NYSE-Deutsche Bourse, took pains to emphasize that it is a merger, a business combination arrangement, not an acquisiton. Because Deutsche Bourse current stock market value is $15 billion compared with about $10 billon for NYSE Euronext, Deutsche Bourse shareholders will get 60% of the combined company. The issues of ownership, the name of the new company and the headquarters and management team, are sensitive ones because the NYSE has traditionally been a symbol of America's role in the world of finance. American lawmakers want to see NYSE appear first in the new name to symbolize America's position in the world of finance. For this reason Deutsche Bourse will not appear first, and the headquarters will be dual headquarters in New York and Frankfurt.

LyrArc Article Gist
According to the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers 99.7% of cars made through November 2009 were sold. According to Trade Minister Chen Deming demand in the rural areas now exceeds that in the urban regions. And demand is also growing in smaller and mid sized cities compared to Beijing and Shanghai. Demand surged 46% to 13.6 million vehicles in 2009 according to the Association. For example 55-60% of Nissan sales come from middle and small sized cities according to a Nissan dealer. Nissan with 2009 sales at 756,000 is now the largest Japanese auto manufacturer in China. Government new bank lending and $732 million in subsidies, sales tax cut, all helped auto sales. But Chen Bin who oversees regulation of the auto industry at the National Development and Reform Commisson says automakers face possible overcapacity in China.

LyrArc Article Gist
US Senate lawmakers agreed to increase the FDIC deposit insurance limits to $250,000 from $100,000. These limits have not been permanently increased since 1980- the increase in late 2008 was a temporary measure to support the banking system. Credit rating agencies pushed hard to avoid the setting up of a credit ratings watchdog agency and succeeded. Under Senator Al Franken's provision a government overseen credit ratings agency board would be setup and it would assign new financial products to ratings agencies for rating. 63 Senators had supported this provision in a Senate debate. Intense lobbying from ratings agencies to avoid this government oversight resulted in shelving of this provision. The change is to ask the SEC to study the conflict of interests issue and how an independent agency might function, and give the SEC authority to setup such a system.

LyrArc Article Gist
The number of supercommuters is up significantly as a result of the drop in home prices and high unemployment. It is up 60% in Manhattan since 2002, up to 59,000 or 3% of the workforce. In the Philadelphia- New Jersey corridor- it is 7.3% according to NYU. Houston saw a large increase between 2002 and 2009. In Maricopa County near Phoenix, 131,000 people or 8.6% of the labor force supercommutes. About 13% of the workforce or 427,000 people supercommute in Texas. Prof. Mitchell Moss of New York University, defines a 100 mile plus commute to get to work as a supercommute. His work at NYU's Rudin Center for Transportation shows 1.15 million people supercommuting in 10 major U.S. metropolitan areas. Employers are showing flexibility not wanting to have to dispose off properties, and employees prefer not to uproot families.

LyrArc Article Gist
Apple maintains its grip on the tablet market with its iPad at $499. Experts at Wharton and the Stern School of Business say Apple has found the strategically right price to maintain a dominant share of a rapidly growing market. So rapidly growing that some estimates show tablet computers surpassing PC sales by 2013. Apple CEO Tim Cook, has the logistical expertise that helped him work out the right price. The Kindle at $199 is hardly profitable by some estimates. Samsung has a smaller tablet at $499. In 2011 Apple saw its tablet market share decline from 87% to 68%, according to IDC Research, but still able to get a dominant share of sales. Apple uses the same approach to pricing for the iPhone. The profits generated on large sales and higher margins helps Apple invest in new products.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Shanghai Composite Index went up by 65% since July 1, 2014. On Jan 19, the Shanghai Index went down by 7.7% as Securities Regulatory Commission placed a 3 month bad on margin financing at brokerage firms Citic Securities, Haitong Securities and Guotai Junan Securities. All large state owned brokerage firms which were found to have violated securities rules on margin financing. Analysts say that the action by the regulator was to control risk on the stock market and give the the central bank, the People's Bank of China more room for monetary easing without negative side effects in the stock market, which had an extraordinary jump of 38% in the last 3 months. Margin financing has more than doubled in the last 6 months and accounted for 18% of average daily trading volume, according to an analyst at Credit Suisse.

LyrArc Article Gist
Only 61% of shareholders present at the annual general meeting voted in approval of the management at Deutsche Bank in May 2015. Legal settlements and lack of trust in strategies of management have hurt credibility. A large part of the lack of credibility comes from the culture at Deutsche Bank which is seen as slow to change. Co-CEO Jain was head of the investment bank when traders engaged in activities that are causing large legal settlements for wrongdoing. Strong criticism came at the annual meeting from shareholders. Han-Martin Buhlmann of the shareholder association VIP raised the question: "Mr. Jain, are you the solution to the problem or part of it?" Alison Esse, managing director of change consultancy, The Storytellers, says shareholders had voted no-confidence against senior management because they lack the credibility to restore the reputation of the bank.

LyrArc Article Gist
Mexico, Chile, Columbia and Peru will sign an agreement in Cali, Columbia, eliminating tariffs on 90% of merchandise trade between their countries and set a 7 year timetable for the remaining 10%. Visa requirements for citizens of these countries have been removed and plans are being developed for a common market. These countries have a private sector that plays a major role in their economies compared to Brazil and Argentina where the state plays an important role. The combined GDP is as large as Brazil's in the Latin American region- about 35%. The regional stock exchanges of these countries have created a single bourse. Their is potential for more regional trade- the Economist estimates intra-regional trade in South and Central America at a low of 27%, compared with 63% in the European Union and 52% in Asia.

LyrArc Article Gist
Shell reported a 60% drop in profit for the second quarter of 2013, after taking a $2 billion writedown on the value of its liquids rich shale assets. Excluding the charges, Shell's profit was $4.6 billion, declining 20% on the prior year quarter. Shell has the largest investments among oil companies in unconventional sources of oil and gas in the U.S. It is producing 300,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from unconventional sources, including 50,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day from shale at end of 2012. Shell expects the exploration and production division for the Americas to remain at a loss during the second half of the year because of current oil and gas prices. Shell is now conducting a strategic review to sell around half of its main nine unconventional oil and gas assets in North America.