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In this exceptional report of the housing market in Roanoke, Virgina, Neil Irwin talks to builders, home buyers, renters and young people. San Francisco and Washington D.C. are the exception in housing markets- hundreds of America's midsize cities like Roanoke are seeing smaller rates of household formation leading to a decline in demand for single family homes and fewer homes being built. This accounts for a large part of the smaller growth in U.S. GDP. There are he points out about 2.3 million missing households as a result of a significant change in home buying patterns that is reducing demand for new construction of single family homes. During the period 2001-2006, before the 2008 global financial crisis, the rate of new U.S. household formation was about 1.35 million annually. This dropped to 569,000 in 2007-2013, as the effects of the crisis were felt in a deep recession. One result is more young people are postponing buying a house and living with their parents. Faced with large student debt- the total U.S. student debt passed $1 trillion for the first time recently- purchases of homes are becoming more dfficult. Of 18-34 year olds 27% lived with their parents before 2006, according to Labor Department data. This went up to 31% following the recession. Lack of good jobs is another factor. In 2014 March only 63% of 18-24 year olds had jobs. Even young people older than 24 with jobs felt it necessary to save money by living with their parents. More retirees too are moving into apartments....

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The Japan Automobile Dealer's Association says Toyota's Prius hybrid was No. 1 in sales in Japan in 2009 with 209,000 sales, three times the sales in 2008. This shows the high popularity of green cars in Japan and a sign of future trends. Hybrid sales made up 10% of new vehicle sales in Japan in 2009. By comparison hybrid sales in the U.S. were 2.8%. Second in car sales in Japan was the Honda Fit, third the Toyota Vitz, both small fuel efficient cars. About 1.6 million Prius cars were sold worldwide from 1997 to 2009, according to Toyota. Toyota has kept the price of the Prius affordable by pricing it at around $22,000.

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Car size shrinks as the Focus, Spark, Aveo, Cruze small cars attract attention at the 2010 International Auto Show in Detroit. The big change is that these small cars are following the European small car in being refined and sophisticated, with a lot of features. This isn't the Chevette that Americans knew in the sixties and seventies, and the perception of what is the right size and comfort is changing completely as a new generation of buyers brought up in a world of pc's, i-phones, and globalized cultures is in the driver seat.

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U.S. auto sales increase to levels seen before the recession in 2006- with 16.5 million units sold in 2014. Sales increased by 5.9% over 2013, according to Autodata. Fiat Chrysler NV sales reached 2 million units in 2014, for an astounding recovery under Marchionne, close to the 2.4 milllion units sold by Toyota and the 2.5 million units sold by Ford Motor.

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As the U.S. population ages and grows at a slower pace the demand for automobiles is likely to peak in 2013-2014, and moderate in subsequent years. Automakers need to be vigilant about adding manufacturing capacity to avoid the problems faced in the last decade when sales and profits declined.

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According to the General Accountability Office inquiry, 28 drug products had price increases over 100% in 2000, in 2008 71 drug products had such large increases. Medicines like Adderall for attention deficit disorder, Inderal for chest pain, Sumycin for infections were in the list of 416 brand name drug products where makers or distributors raised prices at least once by 100% or more for period 2000-2008. As large pharmaceutical companies sold their marginally profitable drug products or small selling products to smaller companies, these smaller companies would immediately increase prices to recover the money they paid to the large pharmaceutical companies. 26 of the brand name products saw prices raised 10 fold. A third of the drugs with large price increases treat depression and disorders of the central nervous system.

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U.S. Senator Ben Sasse suggests an alternative approach of simply repealing the Affordable Care Act called Obamacare and replacing it at a later date. This is endorsed by president Trump. This is the new Republican strategy in July 2017. Forty nine senators voted in favor of this repeal in 2015, when president Obama vetoed this legislation. Two more senators are expected to support repeal according to Ben Sasse.

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U.S. president Trump signs an executive order on March 28, 2017, reversing the American commitment to the Paris climate change agreement. The executive order also lifts a moratorium on the sale of coalmining leases on federal lands. The Obama administration 2015 clean power plan was designed to restrict greenhouse gas emissions from power plants. It was blocked by courts in 2016. Trump says he is reversing president Obama's war on coal. Earlier he approved the Keystone pipeline for bringing oil from oil sands in Canada to the U.S.. Under the Paris agreement the U.S. agreed to cut greenhouse gas emissions 26-28% by 2025 from 2005 levels. Market changes including the availability of cheap natural gas from technology advances fracking and hydraulic fracturing is leading a shift away from coal, apart from Obama administration regulations. Another factor is the long term trend towards cleaner energy, with large energy producers such as American Electric Power and other companies planning for the long term which is likely to be in the direction of cleaner energy. These companies see the Trump administration changes as a situation that may not be for the long term. ...

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Results of a CBS New York Times Poll of 1018 adults in the U.S., reported Feb 28, 2006. Results show 55% showed support for gasoline tax if it reduced dependence on foreign oil, 59% showed support if it also reduced global warming. There is additional support if the money is used to fight terrorism, allocated to specific projects such as electric cars, or help low income people with extra gasoline costs. The important distinction in the results is what respondents were asked. When told about their response to a gasoline tax 85% of respondents opposed it, but when told it would reduce dependence on foreign oil 55% support it. Some respondents want to see it earmarked so that its use would reduce dependence on foreign oil through fuel efficiency improvements. The gasoline tax has remained at 18.4 cents a gallon since 1993. Politicians see the 85% and stay away from the issue and at periods of higher oil prices there is more concern about the impact on consumers. Prof. Borenstein, director of an energy institute at the University of California, Berkeley, says his calculations show a 10% increase in gasoline cost would reduces consumption by 6-8%. As the tax is regressive by putting a higher burden on low income consumers, this should be offset by income tax relief that would make middle and lower income people better off , says Prof. Borenstein. Some of the revenues would be used to support projects at automakers and research universities to develop more fuel efficient technologies for automobiles. Shows support is there if the tax and where money is spent is shaped in the right way....

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Alexandra Stevenson provides this exceptional account of how the debt deal between Argentina and the hedge funds was negotiated. A decade long deadlock was broken for the first time when Argentina's finance secretary in the newly elected government of Mauricio Macri met Jonathan Pollock and Jay Newman of Elliott Management on Dec. 7, 2015, at the Waldorf Astoria hotel in New York. It is based on 8 intervews with the participants in the negotiations, court filings and emails. Critical to the settlement was the work of Dan Pollack, a trial lawyer with the McCarter & English law firm who acted as the mediator and made some rules including no pen and paper allowed, building trust through open discussion. Back channels helped including one setup through Marcos Mindlin of energy firm Pampa Energia in Argentina, who helped the hedge funds communicate with the Argentine negotiators. Mindlin met the hedge fund representatives at the World Economic Forum in Davos. Argentine president Macri insisted on making the terms he offered public on Feb. 1, 2016 of $6.5 billion because this is a sensitive issue in Argentina. Pollack pushed for a simple business transaction to close the issue and not the complex debt structuring the hedge funds favored. On Feb. 19, Judge Griesa of Federal District Court in Manhattan, who presided over the legal settlement, agreed to lift an injunction that would prevent Argentina from making bond payments and raising new money, and set a deadline of Feb. 29 for the settlement. On Feb. 28 the deal was signed by all the hedge funds. Argentina paid all holdout hedgefunds $9.3 billion, according to the Economy ministry, Elliott getting $2.4 billion....

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International Energy Agency estimates show the U.S. surpassing Saudi Arabia as the world's largest oil producer by 2020 because of the boom in shale oil production. The estimates are for 11.1 million barrels a day from the U.S. in 2020.

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Oil from oil sands facilities in Canada is being increasingly transported by rail to the U.S. In the first 9 months of 2013 280 million barrels of oil were transported, double that in 2012, and six times that in 2011, according to the American Association of American Railroads. Exxon Mobil is building a rail loading facility in Edmonton, Alberta, to be finished by early 2015. Rail is receiving attention for safey reasons after a crash in Quebec in 2013. The surge of Canadian crude in the U.S. will affect imports of Mexican and Venezuelan oil,

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Canadian tar sands oil production from Alberta faces increasing competition from production by Bakken oil fields in N. Dakota. The increasing production from Bakken fields in the U.S. and the lack of pipeline space to bring oil from Alberta to the U.S. is putting the more costly projects on hold. The costlier projects have costs of about $100 a barrel with crude prices dropping below $90 in the U.S. Projects using steam to get bitumen to the surface are viable at $50 a barrel, other projects that require mining the bitumen to make synthetic crude have costs upwards of $100 a barrel. Costs are rising quickly with the cost of geoscientists going up 14.5% in 2012 and salaries over 200,000. Production workers make $35-$39 an hour and can make about $170,000 a year. The boom has pushed costs higher each year. Suncor Energy, the largst producer, is reviewing the viability of large planned multibillion upgrading and mining projects and cutting capital spending in 2012 by 11%. By 2020 oil sands output is forecast to double from the 2011 figure of 1.6 million barrels a day, according to the Canadian Association of Petroleum Producers. In 2012 about 50% of production is from the costlier mining operations....

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Are bubble type incentives inflating the size of the U.S. auto market in 2012-2013 as happened in the past decade. This could hurt future sales. Japanese automakers have sharply increased incentives to make a come back after the tsunami and earhtquake restricted supplies. U.S. automakers are reluctant to go further down the incentives route that hurt them in the past decade. The result is higher inventories for Detroit automakers, another undesirable result. General Motors had 5 months of Malibu supply at dealers in Nov. 2012 at the current sales rate, Ford 4 months of Fiesta subcompact inventory and 73 days of total inventory overall, Chrysler 6 months of 2013 Dodge Dart inventory. GM has 3 months of Chevy Cruze inventory, and 138 days of Chevy Silverado pickup truck inventory. GM decided to idle one of two plants making the Cruze. In contrast Toyota has 2 months inventory for the Camry and Corolla. The largest incentives in the U.S. market are from Nissan, a 55% jump to average $4,273 in Nov. 2012 from $2,764 in Jan 2012. Honda increased incentives to average $2,428 from $1,978 in Feb. 2012, a 23% increase. Toyota up to average $2,075 in Nov 2012 from $1717 in Jan. 2012, a 21% increase, according to TrueCar.com, with zero percent interest rates not counted in these numbers. Ford offers $2895 off its 2013 Focus sedan, which has 2 months inventory. General Motors offers between $2900 and $3500 in average incentives , according to TrueCar.com....

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This review of Acemoglu and Robinson in the MIT News is relevant to the situation faced today. The two professors at MIT and University of Chicago, have provided two books relevant to today's crises, the first "When Nations Fail" in 2012 about the need for inclusive nations, and the second "The Narrow Corridor" about the importance of the role of individual and society in sustaining democracy. Their point in the first book "When Nations Fail" in 2012 coming after the financial crisis caused by banking excesses stated that the nations fail when they are not inclusive.  In practice it is about " the system being rigged" to favor some groups as the Republican party and Mr. Trump say has happened. The banks and lobbyists, pharmaceutical industry and lobbyists, tech industry and lobbyists, leading to a system where individual and society are pushed into a corner. Social theorist and economists fail to look at things in practice such as profit seeking behaviours and unethical behaviour that goes unchecked, which continued after the financial crisis into the election of 2016, with charges of rigged systems.  This week Germany's DW.com oped pages covered New York with the statement that treatment in New York costs $15,000 for coronavirus infection illness yet many New York residents in the worst affected neighborhoods would find a $500 expense difficult to bear. Early closing of schools to control infection rate was resisted by Mayor De Blasio of New York because many parents depended on schools for lunches for their kids. The situation had been allowed to deteriorate to that level.  In their second book the MIT authors are saying that the role of the individual and society are important to check that of the state (for example if it is perceived as being rigged by the influence of lobbying of legislators and politicians as the Republican party and Mr. Trump have maintained). It is only when it is checked and there is some tension is there the possibility of democracy and democratic processes, say the two MIT authors. In the absence of this the states and elites of politicians and business interests supporting the leaders and their common behaviours, become a perpetual state, in effect a one party rule of two parties with similar behaviours and interests in the state. A situation that allowed the outshoring of American manufacturing and European manufacturing to China including critical infrastructure, essential infrastructure over 2 decades even over the protests of Mr. Lighthizer since 2010. As the twin crises evolved in Europe of austerity policies after banking excesses in Europe, and the migration crisis of migrants coming from North Africa and the wars in the Middle East, a similar situation began to develop in Europe as the political elites entrenched in Germany, France, and Spain faced new voices. The tensions that arose were constructive bringing in the role of society and individual that the MIT authors say are so necessary for the narrow corridor of democratic process to function. New parties emerged in France with Macron's La Republique En Marche, Podemos and Ciudadanos in Spain, and in Germany with the SPD and CDU shrinking till the revival of Merkel for her handling of the pandemic. Coming from an intuitive way born from experience in East Germany, Germany's recent president Joachim Gauck, civil rights activist  came up with the same ideas. He is a Lutheran pastor in former East Germany who struggled against the government of the German Democratic Republic (former communist East Germany) for a role for individual and society against the state. We profiled and quoted him in "The Way Forward"  column in Lyrarc.com. Gauck's point was that  having diverse groups in the conversation is important, not excluding others from outside in the conversation is important. Gauck called  debate "the oxygen of democracy,"  that needed to be maintained.  Genuine democratic process is hard to sustain, it happens only when the role of individual and society is given prominence, so that only a narrow corridor exists for democracy, a narrow space in which can be sustained only if the effort is there, the goodwill is there, and the grace of Divine Providence.  It is fragile and it is critical to sustain.   In this sense the sometimes heated debate in the U.S. and Europe, Asia and Latin America about words such as- austerity, community, solidarity, migration, New York Mayor De Blasio's choice between school lunches and infections, about infrastructure, pharmaceutical prices, infrastructure, outshoring, jobs sent overseas, manufacturing locally, made in USA or made in India or made in France, Atmannirbhar Bharat, misallocation of capital starving health and public services, are all relevant and essential for democracy. This includes the discussion to avoid use of the military in protests in American cities in the middle of a pandemic which just crossed the 2 million mark in cases in the U.S., that was taken up by Defense Secretary Esper. In it lies the hope for democracy and many voices. Der Spiegel recent look at the pandemic how it happened in China, closes with the line- you need more than one voice in society. A constant reminder that many voices be heard, counseling patience, but also that wise choices be made with divine providence.           ...

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Fiat's Marchionne's decision to focus on the Fiat 500 and the Panda city car in the price sensitive European market. Fiat has no success in selling its Bravo larger car. In 2011 sales of the Bravo model were only 32,036 compared to VW Golf model sales of 522,370 in Europe, according to IHS Global Insight. Sales of the Fiat 500 were 119,836 units vs. sales of 83,150 for the BMW Mini in the first half of 2012. Fiat has suffered more than other automakers in the European market with sales decline of 16.7% compared to 7.2% decline for the overall market, for Jan-Sept 2012. Fiat's new plans are for five new Fiat models and three new Fiat light trucks in Europe between 2013-2016. Fiat launched the 500L minivan in Europe in Sept 2012. Fiat's European factories are running at 45% of capacity on average, and the European operations are likely to burn through 700 million euros in 2013, similiar to 2012, unlikely to breakeven before 2015 or 2016. This makes getting the product decisions right critical for Fiat. Fiat's chief in Europe, Gianluca Italia talks of the functional and emotional soul of Fiat cars for Europe in a emphasis on making Fiat's models in the price sensitive segments more distinctive and commanding a premium in the European market. Fiat's 500 has about a 25% premium over a similiar Ford Ka in its segment. The new Fiat 500 models will be exported to Asia and Latin America in an effort to increase capacity utlilization in its Italian factories....

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A final U.S. State Dept. review of the XL Keystone pipeline shows there will be no negative environmental impact. The amount of oil from oil sands will not be increased by the building of the pipeline. The final decision will be made by president Obama.

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An average of major opinion polls compiled by Real Clear Politics website shows 50.5% of Americans opposed to the Obama U.S. health care law.