LyrArc Article Gist
The employment to population ratio in August 2011 was 58.2%, down from 62.7% in December 2007, according to the Labor Department. For men the ratio is 63.6%, down from 69.4% in 2007 when the recession began. About one percentage point of this is a result of a surge of retirements during this recession period.

LyrArc Article Gist
Research figures show corporate insiders are not buying into the rally in the U.S. stock market in Feb. 2012.

LyrArc Article Gist
Florida's House of Representatives passed a bill in March that reduces the number of weeks of unemployment benefits from the standard 26 weeks to 20 weeks. A similar law was passed in Michigan recently. Both states have unemployment rates exceeding 10%.

LyrArc Article Gist
At a time of volatility and anxiety in financial markets Americans put their trust in Vanguard Funds. Vanguard funds took in 40% of the entire cash flow of the mutual fund industry in the first half of 2012, $87.7 billion went to Vanguard excluding money market funds. This was largely because of the index funds which Vanguard originated and which were Bogle's invention. Today Bogle, 83, still speaks up for investors and investing for the long run, on staying away from speculation and protecting U.S. financial markets from speculative behaviours. He says the financial industry has to put investor and client interests first, with no excuses made for behaviour, period, at a time when the financial industry has lost its compass and direction. Bogle heads the research center at Vanguard Funds following disagreements with his hand picked successor Brennan, and leaving the Board in 1999. The current head at Vanguard Funds, CEO McNabb, says Vanguard owes its success to all the foundations set by Bogle. Bogle says strategy follows structure, and the structure he built of investor ownership of Vanguard Funds prevents a situation where owners can siphon off funds, or engage in activities that would hurt investors. Bogle's differences with Brennan came from his efforts to institutionalize other ideas such as investing for the long term, and shunning frequent trading which could happen with the creation of exchange traded funds (ETF's). Bogle has had several heart operations since 1999, and a successful heart transplant. This has not slowed his adocacy efforts on behalf of investors, with 11 books on investing and safeguarding financial markets from excesses of the kind seen in the 2008 financial crisis. The most recent book is "The Clash of Cultures: Investment vs. Speculation" (Wiley & Sons, $29.95). In the book he calls for a grass roots effort by investors to protect America's retirement system, and finances of younger parents with children to send to college, from the damage that is happening with the financial system in acute stage of dysfunction. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Burton Malkiel on the role of index funds in a well diversified investor portfolio.

LyrArc Article Gist
Jeff Sommer talks to Harvey Markovitz, considered the founder of portfolio theory, on share prices and the stock market. Markovitz says portfolio selection are the two most important words he wrote and the ones to remember. Building a diversified portfolio is the most important thing in investing. Markovitz says investors should forget about individual stocks and their oscillations, and buy low cost index stock and bond funds. Allocating these in a way that depends on the volatility and risk that the particular investor feels comfortable with. Rebalance the portfolio as needed periodically, and change allocations. Other than that do other hobbies, things that give you a greater sense of reward. Markovitz was deeply influenced by Hume's ideas of skepticism and the thought that one was never sure about the probability of an event occuring even if it had ocurred before.

LyrArc Article Gist
Elsa Fornero is an economics professor who is Labor Minister in the government of Mario Monti. After several decades Italy has finally tackled the much needed changes to the 1970 Workers' Charter that forms the basis of Italy's labor laws. The Charter protected workers jobs but was designed during a different period and had long since lost its relevance in a modern economy. The laws led to Italy losing its competitiveness and entrenched small family firms in the economy. The new labor law protects the individual instead of jobs, by increasing the safety net to cover unemployed workers for shorter periods and lower benefits, and makes it possible for firms to layoff employees for economic reasons. Fornero says Italians need to recognize that work is not a right to be enshrined in laws but something that is earned through hard work. Article 18 of the Worker's Charter was originally intended to remove discriminatory practices in the workplace, but was enlarged to provide blanket protections to workers so that companies could not fire workers and avoided hiring. Under the new law discrimination is illegal, but now companies can layoff employees for economc reasons and not face long legal disputes and be forced to rehire the workers. The new law will increase productivity says Marcello Giustiniani, a labor specialist at Milan law firm Nonelli, Erede & Pappalardo. Italy's productivity gap with Germany has widened to over 30% since the introduction of the euro. The ASPI, new unemployment insurance plan, goes into effect in 2013, older programs will be phased out by 2017, giving time for the culture change in Italy for workers and business. Another major change is designed to help 2 million workers earning less than 18,000 euros. Businesses will have to give these workers proper contracts. Fornero's effort to tackle the pension system also includes linking retirement checks to how much is contributed over the lifetime- a practice common in other countries- not the final and highest salary. This simple change was not not implemented by 10 governments since a law was passed in 1995, showing why the Monti government was needed to get things done....

LyrArc Article Gist
The month of August 2011 ranks as the 10th worst month for U.S. stocks in 75 years. Or to put it another way of the last 900 months, the month of August 2011 ranks the 10th worst month in terms of volatiltiy. The average up and down movement each day in August was 1.%. In August the Dow Jones Industrial Averages were down 529 points, or a drop of 4.4%. This is not what worries investors as much- as their are months like May 2010 which had a 7.9% drop. The impact on investors is in the increased uncertainty that this creates about how an investment will perform in the future.

LyrArc Article Gist
Money shifting out of the PIMCO Total Return Fund as returns from bonds decline in 2012-2013 and this fund returns are a negative 1.2% for 2013, assets under management decline to $247.9 billion by Oct 31, 2013 from $286 billion at the end of 2012. The Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund takes first place in size of funds, with returns of 27% in 2013, and $288 billion in assets under management up from $210 billion at the end of 2012. Index funds are increasing in popularity with low costs. This Vanguard Fund has expenses at 4 cents for every $100 invested compared to 46 cents for the PIMCO fund, because the index funds invest in all the stocks in a particular stock index avoiding management fees.

LyrArc Article Gist
Financial Planner Carl Richards, warns investors about relying too much on market predictions. He cites the law of small samples as one way things go wrong. Another is investment managers with good track records in one decade doing badly in the next decade- David Miller in the 70's and Bill Miller of the Legg Mason Value Fund are others. To show how ridiculous market predictions based on computer models can get he gives the example of a researcher who found that over a 13 year period butter production in Bangladesh 'explained' 75% of the fluctuations in the annual returns of the Standard & Poor's 500 stock index. Adding in U.S. cheese production and the total population of sheep in Bangladesh and the U.S., this researcher was able to forecast past U.S. stock returns with 99% accuracy.

LyrArc Article Gist
Bernstein Global Research looked into how long it takes to regain losses if one remained fully invested in the market with a diversified portfolio. For the 12 month period starting July 1, 1931, with 67% decline the research showed it took 39 months to be made whole and recover the losses. For the 12 month period starting March 1, 2008, with a 43% decline the research shows it took 22 months to be made whole and recover the losses.

LyrArc Article Gist
Shiller, Kashyap, Mishkin, Slaughter, Stein, Stulz, Rajan and others are part of a 15 academic economists group called the Squam Lake Group. They first met at a conference in November 2008 at Squam Lake in New Hampshire. The group has come up with a report that they hope gets the prominence of the 9/11 report. It is called the Squam Lake Report. The book will be introduced in a conference at Columbia University by Fed chairman Ben Bernanke. Some of the economists have little faith in regulators and a new Financial Stability oversight Council led by Treasury Secretary Geithner. (Stulz, Kashyap). The group sees need for better disclosure of risks of financial products, especially retirement savings products.The editor Seth Itchik sees the book as today's version of the 1938 book by Harvard and Tufts economists called "An Economic Program for American Democracy." The motivation for this effort in a field where economists have different opinions, is to build a consensus for decisive action by Congress and the government of the U.S. Two new suggestions that are not in the Congressional bills for financial reform. One is issuance of contingent convertible bonds or CoCo bonds. Banks would be encouraged or required to issue such debt which would convert into equity in a crisis. These funds would help recapitalize a bank in a crisis with no taxpayer liability. Another new proposal is to have a fraction of each year's bonus pool for banking executives to be held separately- if the bank ran into trouble, that portion of pay would be withheld from senior managers. And the group sees political aspects and lobbying making sound plans less implementable in Congress. Congress lets regulators curb pay practices and coordinate other actions which has not worked in the past and during the crisis. Congress has even in its best effort acted on only some of the things needed in its bills- this includes higher capital requirements, and compulsory "living wills" for the largest financial institutions, and the Volcker Rule. The rules for derivatives are still being negotiated by Blance Lincoln who introduced this provision, with the result being more transparency. If it is watered down it would not ensure the strict separation of derivatives trading on the capital accounts of banks that Blanche Lincoln envisaged. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mr. Rodrigo Maia, the 49 year old son of the former Mayor of Rio De Janeiro, Cesar Maia, is uniting Congressmen from all parties in Brazil's parliament to get things done and restore lost confidence, such as the recently passed pension reform. Brazil's pension system sucks up most of the money in the budget with overly generous benefits, leaving little to pay for essential public services such as sanitation and transportation. Shockingly sanitation has suffered as only 50% of the sewage is treated in Brazil.  Polls show confidence in parliament after corruption scandals and lack of work to help the people of Brazil with essential public services has fallen to an abysmal low of 7%. Only 50% of Brazil's sanitation is treated and the rest flows as untreated sewage and rubbish into the rivers. To bring some sanity to pensions the Brazilian parliament, with the organizing skills of Mr. Maia to bring parties together around the reform, has cut $240 billion over 10 years from pensions and introduced 65 years for men and 62 years for women as minimum retirement age.  Brazil has 33 parties and Mr. Maia's is with the centre right DEM party. How did this happen. This WSJ story says Rodrigo Maia, 49 years, was born in Santiago, Chile in 1970 during the days of Brazilian military dictatorship. His father was in exile in Chile. The election of a  far right figure Jair Bolsonaro who supported the military dictatorships record as president in the recent election was a warning sign for the different parties in Brazil on the centre right and the centre left that corruption scandals and a do-little spirit was wiping out their influence and destoroying their credibility with ordinary Brazilians. The pension cut reform was their response to gain some of the lost goodwill from the Brazilian people. In the past Brazil's members of the Chambers of Deputies were people of power and influence who held positions for long periods and passed on these positions to people in their families or in their close circle. The elections and democratic governments following years of dictatorship brought in a new class from centre right and centre left that mismanaged public finances and excluded new ideas. The Car Wash scandal and scandals at the state petroleum company under Da Silva's Workers Party led to loss of confidence not only in the centre left party government of Da Silva and the Workers Party, but also in a do-little parliament. The large state spending from the government was possible during the commodities boom from China with Brazilian iron ore and other products getting high prices. WIth the collapse of the commodities boom and lower prices the entire system of state spending has unraveled revealing how much generous pension system is damaging the financing of  basic public services.  Corruption is prevalent in many countries in Asia including India but nowhere has the spending on essential public services such as sanitation suffered as in Brazil. And nowhere was parliament and the government able to get away with staging Olympics, World Cup and building many stadiums, handing out generous benefits to gain public support as in Brazil when basic sanitation and health services were neglected in a shocking way. The health system was weakened to a great extent when it lacked the resources to tackle an outbreak of yellow fever in 2018 as it moved south from the Amazon region towards Sao Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Protests against the lack of investment in public services such as transportation and bus systems resulted in the public protests in big cities that led to the rise of Jair Bolsonaro in an effort to bring new administration to tackle the problem of financing for infrastructure, public services, health and education.    ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Hilsenrath cites Robert Hall, a Stanford University professor whose research shows three fourths of American households do not have two months worth of income put away as cash or other liquid assets. The Federal Reserve researcher Karen Pence says 41% of households can borrow less than $3000 on their credit cards and 23% have been turned down or discouraged from applying for credit. This shows the general financial weakness of overly indebted American households and the overlayed effects of the housing crisis, and higher unemployment. It suggests the margin for consumers to weather difficulties and increase spending is thin.

LyrArc Article Gist
Zweig points out that P/E multiples fall quickly in the midst of higher uncertainty. Benjamin Graham's "cyclically adjusted" P/E refined by Yale economist Robert Shiller smooths out the top and bottoms of the market by averaging the past 10 years of earnings and incorporating effects of inflation. This "cyclically adjusted" P/E for the U.S. market for the last 50 years is 19.5. The P/E for the market when the S&P 500 was at 1325 in late July 2011 was 22.9, and at the low in the first week of August 2011 of 1167 was 20.2. With the higher uncertainty- as for instance Bank of New York Mellon charging clients to hold cash- the P/E multiples are in a different territory. The P/E dropped to 13.3 in March 2009 after the financial crisis of 2008. Larger macroeconomic trends and uncertainty may have yet to play out and not registered fully in the market indexes. Jack Hough throws light on this from a different angle in the Wall Street Journal, August 5, 2011 comparing stagnant wages and its relationship with corporate earnings....