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DJT calls for 10% cap on credit card interest for affordability crisis for US families. Most of the credit card companies in the US base these operations in places without usury laws such as Nevada, and charge exorbitant rates on credit cards, a practice that is going on for 6 decades since the 1960's. It makes it harder for families to get out of poverty and living from paycheck to paycheck. It is another aspect of the affordability crisis. Democrats have never raised this up for action. “Please be informed that we will no longer let the American Public be ‘ripped off’ by Credit Card Companies that are charging Interest Rates of 20 to 30%, and even more,” the president says he wants the cap to start Jan. 20, 2026 If this happens it will be a big win for the American people and end a decades long usury type business in credit cards that violates the idea on which the US was founded of opportunity for all and access to credit as critical in making this happen. Interest rates of 30% are a way to reduce social mobility in the way a feudal order once did in the years before the Modern World and the Scientific Revolution. A society without social mobility is one in decline can be seen in the way Spain went into decline after 1700 and Britain emerged to lead the Modern World and the Industrial Revolution. This is the crisis America faces today- change or cede leadership to China or some other nation. It is about this not the capitalist system or other system as many like to portray it, and Adam Smith was all about growth and social mobility that were part of his system which today is sadly forgotten, yet needs to be bravely put forward. ...

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Greg Ip says all the data show the economy is much stronger with low unemployment and inflation coming down, yet for the nation people are not so upbeat, and for their own state really upbeat. He attributes it to the general mood of uncertainty of people, and the negativity with which the media presents news. Some clues to what they actually believe can be seen below the superficial look at the data. For instance as people surveyed say they feel the economy is much worse today by a significant margin for the whole nation they say just the opposite for their own state by an equally significant margin. Listen to this- the WSJ poll Greg Ip cites shows US economy is getting worse or better in the graph. For the US it shows 31% think it is getting worse. The opposite for Arizona 30% and Pennsylvania 25% think it is getting better. In other states people say it is about 18% better- the states are Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, North Carolina and Nevada. This suggests that the surveys have to be looked at from the perspective of their own state which reflect the data which clearly shows a big improvement. Greg Ip says the WSJ has seen this in another place, when people are about Congress they say its looking worse, when asked about their own state Congressman they say just the opposite and quite favorable. It is something that is important to bear in mind in 2024 and for the future, the American people are still rational and science based in their thinking, as they have been throughout the nation's history pioneering in the Industrial Revolution. ...

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Pokhara airport Nepal cost about $200 million but it does not get international flights from India which make it unsustainable. On the 10th anniversary of China's Belt and Road which has invested $1 trillion in development projects in poor countries of Asia and Africa, NYT's Wakabayashi, Sharma and Fu look at the China project that built a new international airport at Pokhara. CMAC initially submitted a bid for $305 million about twice what it would otherwise cost says this report, which was lowered to $216 million. Nepal signed a 20 year agreement with China. Only Chinese firms would be used in construction. A quarter of the loans at no interest. The rest a loan at 2% interest with repayment starting in 2026 from the Export Import Bank of China. 

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Women in a 2011 group studied by Peter Cappelli of the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, Monika Hamori and Rocio Bonet of the IE Business School in Madrid, show increasing numbers of women and foreign educated managers in top positions at large corporations. Mary Barra of GM and Satya Nadella of Microsoft are two of the prominent names appointed recently. Women now have 18% of the top positions at large U.S. corporations and foreign educated have 11% in this 2011 group. The numbers would be expected to be higher in 2014 with an acceleration in this trend. On average it takes women 28 years to reach these positions compared to 29 for men. A big dropoff is noticed in the study for women in the corporate promotion track who are middle managers for a few years.

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This report in the WSJ gives the background and positions taken by Patriarch Krill of the Russian Orthodox Church, and his support for the war in Ukraine as part of Russian lands nationalism. Russian lands nationalism is an idea that comes from the beginnings of the Russian version of Christianity that had its origins in Kviv Ukraine in the 10th century. Patriarch Krill has had a varied role questioning some some state policies and then backing off and supporting the state says WSJ. In 2011 patriarch Krill stood up for protesters critical of manipulation in parliamentary elections that year. Patriarch Krill grew up in the years of Soviet rule and was 24 in 1970 when he began his work in the church. He was rector of a seminary in Leningrad by 1984 and after being critical of the Soviets and war in Afghanistan was sent to Smolensk says this report in WSJ. After he returned he worked with the Soviet state, and after voicing concerns in 2011 about parliamentary elections described as manipulated he has supported the Russian state as it becomes assertive about Russian lands nationalism. To understand the Orthodox Church in Russia one has to know its presence in the post Soviet period. About 63% of Russians belong to the Orthodox Church. It also includes Ukrainians. After Crimean invasion by Russia the Ukrainian Orthodox Church that makes up one third of the Russian Orthodox parishes was recognized as a separate church by Patriarch Bartholomev of Constantinople. Patriarch Bartholomev and Pope Francis the two leaders of the eastern and western churches in Constantinople and Rome have been critical of Patriarch Krill and his support for the war and the idea of Russian lands nationalism. Since the war some parishes in Russia have signed a letter opposing the killing of brothers in Christ and one parish leader was fined $500 for his statements. There is now intense debate among Russians about what this war means in bringing conflict on brotherly peoples about their preferences in 2022 for aligning with Europeans in the western part of Europe. For most of Europe in the 21st century there is a big change, in the countries near the Baltic sea in Northern Europe, in countries in the middle of Europe, in Eastern Europe, the 21st century is seen as a time when states and peoples are making their own choices about freedom and what their preferences are particularly the young people. They no longer understand or conform to ideas of the earlier period or centuries. And this is what has made Ukrainian young people oblivious about what Russian lands nationalism means and its relevance today. Buddhism is today not prevalent in South Korea a democratic state and in China a Communist state in the way it existed for centuries. For it to be relevant people need to begin to believe in it as in Japan or Sri Lanka or Thailand. In the 21st century young people are making different choices and this may well be where the Ukraine war shows that people's choices count particularly in the 21st century, and it has little to do with the west or the US or NATO or even Russia. ...

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Lucy Powell Central Manchester MP elected Labour's Deputy Leader with 54% of the vote in 17% vote turnout. In a sign of the big changes in UK politics and economy Lucy Powell was fired by PM Starmer as leader in the House of Commons as recently as September 2025. Starmer clearly has not led the Labour Party in Britain in ways that would win the confidence of the people of Britain as demonstrated in a recent Wales by-election with Labour having only 11% of the vote after Reform in a previously safe seat.  Lucy Powell says about the lack of listening within Labour to the grassroots people and organization- “I think we often feel like our members and elected representatives are something we need to stand against or not value. They are our strengths. “They connect us to the national conversation. Instead of just telling people what we want them to do, we need to respect, value and include them more, and recognise that debate is not division or dissent, and recognise you have to take people with you and hear from broader voices, not just a narrower group of voices. “They haven’t felt they have been included and connected as they should in recent months, and that’s what often happens when you go into government. “I’m going to really help to do that, to re-engage with the party, and make them feel part of the conversation again. I’ll do that through working with Keir [Starmer], working with government, working right across the party in the leadership roles that I will have.”     ...

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The dangers of crypto currency have not gone away says Eswar Prasad of Cornell University. Crypto currency companies have simply joined the bandwagon for acceptance using the two political parties into the 2024 elections, he says. He calls this a cynical bid by political parties for Silicon Valley cash and young voters. If anything he says the risks are greater today. Sam Bankman and FTX scandal are just the tip of the iceberg of these risks.  Prasad says not to be fooled. China, India and Japanese governments have kept crypto at a distance because of the dangers inherent in a currency that cannot have the backing of the central bank. Prasad says that crypto itself still has dangers of speculation, financial engineering and outright fraud. These dangers can then spillover into traditional banking and financial markets. The information technology that crypto has used is already being used in traditional banking so that this is no longer something that is characteristic of crypto just something that it has been using. This is a scant regulated market and crypto companies like tech companies in social media that threatens education and democracy through misinformation want to keep it that way.   ...

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Scientific American says 8-11% impact larger emissions under the One Big Beautiful Act than the 61%-66% emissions cut under Biden IRA in 2035 over 2005. What is the reasoning behind DJT Republicans approach? 

Remember that the wealthiest House districts are now in the Democratic party and the working class, rural and poorer districts are now in the Republican party as shown in the recent WSJ analysis.  In this situation after  30-40 increase in the price of groceries, new and used cars, and housing costs 2019-2024 the argument is that American working families need relief. Another factor was the grasp of the fact that for climate change action to work China could not be allowed to build one coal plant a week (95GW of coal electricity capacity in 2024). In 2024 US represented only 12% of global emissions and EU only 6%, China, Russia, India, Brazil etc emitting the rest of 82%. 

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British prime minister Theresa May makes a bid for working class votes in the 2017 election, just as the Labor party under Jeremy Corbyn announces its own manifesto seeking working class votes. May has proposed increasing the minimum wage to 60% of median earnings by 2020, and increased funding for the National Health Service by 8 billion pounds over 5 years. Corporate taxes will be reduced from 19 to 17% compared to Labor Party raising it to 26% under Corbyn's manifesto. Some of the Labor Party's supporters in the north of Britain are leaving the party because of dissatisfaction with Labor's leadership.

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Tesla suffered from production issues in 2017 and CEO Musk was not his usual upbeat self.  In early 2018 Musk is back to his usual style predicting big things for Tesla. Just after his company Space Exploration Technologies sent a powerful rocket with a Tesla car into space,Musk predicted making one million vehicles a year in 2020. In 3 months he says a Tesla will cross the U.S. He says Tesla will now be able to make 5000 cars a week of the Model 3.

Another of his predictions is that he will revolutionize production systems and leap over existing car companies. Analysts asked Musk if the Toyota Production System had not already achieved that, Musk says "we don't think so." This report points to changing moods of Musk and periods when he feels high and low, and changing according to the unrelenting stress he finds himself in or indulges in.

 

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Indian Finance Minister Sitharaman gives the following remarks in parliament on the White Paper presented to the 18th Lok Sabha in January 2024, describing the dire condition of the Indian economy by 2013 with mismanagement and "big ticket" corruption. India's Finance Minister Sitharaman describes the situation in three key areas by 2013 that left the economy of India in a fragile state, with projects stalled, development delayed, and capital investment not taking place. She gives as 3 main points of focus- the state of affairs at Defense Ministry, at the Environment Ministry, and for Energy supplies. At the outset she says PM Modi had suggested the need for such White Paper by 2015 so that future generations would know what had happened in India that failed the country at a time when China had already joined the community of developed nations. The issues go back to the coal scandal when coal auctions had to be cancelled by the Supreme Court for irregularities, the misuse of state owned banks leading to a large increase in non performing loans, and the mismanaged Commonwealth Games under government before 2014.  Sitharaman told parliament this had the effect of national security being compromised, Environment as a Ministry becoming a bottleneck, and the leadership failing the country. In the military there was a critical shortage of ammunition and equipment. She cites the Defense Minister at the time having the attitude that independent India has had a policy for many years not to develop the border areas, as an undeveloped border was better than a developed border. She also says Ministry stated that 92% of the Defense Budget was used up and major acquisitions have to wait for the military. Following this Sitharaman cited the scandals of that period and leakages of funds that weakend the country and failed its people. She compared capital expenditures today of 6.22 lakh crores in 2024 thre times the number in 2013 of 2.53 crores. HAL now makes Tejas jets and helicopters in Made in India production. At the Environment Ministry the delays that were 86 days reached a high of 316 days by 2013 for approval of development projects, with 355 projects pending, the nation brought to a standstill with the effects of the coal supplies to thermal power plants being wholly inadequate and Coal India in poor shape. The root of this was said Sitharaman- what everyone in Indian business knew, the term "genteel facts," as the cost of business going up. She cites the changes since then of aiming for Balance and Development- Transparency, Online Green Clearance, Standardized Environment Impact Studies, A new Department of Climate change, International Solar Alliance 2015, Mission Life 2022, Green Hydrogen, Namami Gange, Rooftop Solar. India set ambitious goals at the last Climate change Conference.    ...

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Pfizer and Moderna's plans to make mRNA vaccines in Africa, Asia or Latin America may take much longer than 2022. The solution to producing an mRNA vaccine in Asia that could be mass manufactured and distributed throughout Africa, Asia and Latin America is now at hand. Gennova based in India, is partnering with Seattle startup HDT Bio to attack the problem of temperature and scalability in manufacturing for a mRNA vaccine that acts as a global solution using India's manufacturing capabilities. Dr Singh who founded Gennova, says- "We wanted to solve the problem of the scalability issue, and the temperature issue. If we can solve these problems, we are building a solution not just for India, but also a global solution." Gennova received seed funding from the Indian government. Other companies in Brazil and South Africa lack the manufacturing capabilities or financing needed that exist in India. The Indian government has achieved an initial goal of one billion vaccinated in just 6 months. The next step for India in its health infrastructure buildup is a mRNA vaccine that is an improvement over Pfizer and Moderna vaccines that can be stored easily, adapted for variants, and manufactured in large quantity as a global solution. ...

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The media fails to give a clear complete picture of effects, context, concept behind tariffs and AI won't know. Effects on inflation- June inflation is 2.7% compared to May inflation of 2.4%. The central bank head, Fed chairman Powell has not cut rates to gauge the effect on inflation with new data. Powell says the US economy is strong and inflation remains low. US Market access fee-The US and overseas media including WSJ has not pointed out that the tariffs agreed to by Japan, European Union and South Korea of 15% are really not tariffs but a fee these countries and their business sectors in major industries such as autos and machinery, pay to access the US market. DJT, USTR Greer, Treasury's Bessent expect these companies to not increase prices. Fairness: US had 2.8% tariff on cars EU had 10% since 1980's. Rebates will go to some income groups. Rebates- In the one third of products in clothing, shoes etc of the $50 billion in tariffs for first half 2024 where about 5% price increase is passed on to consumers as shown in WSJ report this is likely offset by rebates to certain income groups. DJT says- “The big thing we want to do is pay down debt, but we’re thinking about a rebate. We have so much money coming in from tariffs that a little rebate for people of a certain income level might be really nice.”     ...

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Germany's chancellor Merkel draws attention to Russia's human rights record in a meeting with Russian president Putin in Moscow, Nov. 16, 2012. The German chancellor tells Putin not to be so sensitive to criticism from the opposition, saying before the meeting: "I ask that not every bit of criticism is seen as destructive. Open a German paper and read what is written there. If I were always getting offended, I would not last even three days in my job." Germany's special envoy to Russia, Mr. Schockenhoff, has been especially critical of Russian suppression of dissent and opposition groups. Russia's response is that it will talk to other countries as trading partners but not about its domestic affairs. The Russian government sees the two way trade of $120 billion between Germany and Russia as "an air bag" to prevent any significant deterioration in relations. Siemens signed a contract for 675 locomotives with Russian Railways during the Merkel visit.

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This Biden Xi meeting at Woodside, California, November 19, 2023, sets the stage for US- China relations to 2050. It is a momentous event.     Biden: "We have a responsibility to our people and the world to work together when it is in our interest to do so. And the critical global challenges we face, from climate change to counter narcotics to artificial intelligence, require our joint efforts."                                                                      Xi Jinping: The China-U.S. relationship, which is the most important bilateral relationship in the world, should be perceived and envisioned in a broad context of the — of the accelerating global transformations unseen in a century.  It should develop in a way that benefits our two peoples and fulfills our responsibility for human progress." "I am still of the view that major-country competition is not the prevailing trend of current times and cannot solve the problems facing China and the United States or the world at large.  Planet Earth is big enough for the two countries to succeed, and one country’s success is an opportunity for the other."     ...

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In a significant development Apple plans to introduce a new iPhone in 2011 at half the price. The new iPhone will be lighter and about half the size of the current model, the iPhone 4. The reduced price would make it possible for Verizon and other carriers to subsidize most of the retail price. Apple at the current time sells iPhones to Verizon and other carriers for an averge of $625 each. A subsidized iPhone can then sold near the price point of $200 with a two year contract. Also in the works is a big revamp of the MobileMe online storage service. The service allows users to access data from a central location, and is sold for an annual subscription fee of $99. This feature gets rid of the need for a lot of memory residing on the phone itself. MobileMe would also be used for online music, social networking and other purposes. These two projects, the mass market iPhone and the new MobileMe are the two top priorities for Steve Jobs, who is still overseeing the efforts from home. Jobs went on medical leave recently. The global market share of the iPhone is only 3.4%, according to IDC. Yet it generated 39% of Apple's $26.7 billion in revenues for the last quarter of 2010. Apple's strategy is to accelerate competition in the smartphone segment. IDC says global sales of smartphones will rise 39% in 2011 to 421 millon units. Apple has sold 84.2 million iPhones since the introduction in 2007. By entering the massmarket with a better iPhone and free features on MobileMe Apple hopes to make significant inroads in 2011-2012....

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H-P alleges that Autonomy Inc. misrepresented its revenue before its acquisition for $11.1 billion in Oct. 2011. H-P made a surprise announcement Nov. 20, 2012, about a $9 billion charge it is taking for the Autonomy acquisition. Mike Lynch, founder of Autonomy Inc. says he cannot see how 300 people doing due diligence and Deloitte doing its accounting could have missed such a big elephant. Lynch tells the WSJ that he has not been contacted about this by the Serious Fraud Office. The Autonomy Inc. acquisition is unusual because it reflects a period of high CEO turnover at H-P with the hiring of former SAP CEO Apotheker to run the company, following the resignation of CEO Mark Hurd for relations with a female employee. Apotheker made the highly criticized decision to shift H-P away from its main business of PC's and into software. The Autonomy acqusition was the first step and it was widely observed that he had overpaid for the acquisition. A few months later Apotheker was fired by the H-P Board, with the Board itself coming under severe criticism. Lynch says most of the best Autonomy employees in the company he founded over ten years ago had left the company because of culture conflicts with H-P managers. This had already resulted in destruction of much of the intellectual value of the company....

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Government bonds will be purchased by central banks of each country roughly in proportion to the size of their national economies in the eurozone. Risks for 80% of the purchases of bonds in the $1 trillion program will be borne by the central bank of each country. For 12% of the remaining bonds purchases will be made in the European Investment Bank bonds, here risk will be shared with the ECB. For the remaining 8% the ECB itself will make bond purchases. This avoids a situation where the risk of bonds going down in value is borne by that country and not passed on to other countries in the eurozone, as a matter of fairness in distributing risks. This also limits moral hazard where painful budget decisions are not made by countries in need of budget overhauls because risk can be passed on. A big reason why this can work in 2015 is that the eurozone has already emerged from the crisis period of 2012-2013, and is beginning to experience growth in 2015. Just this kind of boost to lending was provided by the U.S. Federal Reserve when the U.S. emerged from its crisis period in 2009-2011, and helped the economy grow in 2013-2014....

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Paul de Grauwe, a economist at the London School of Economics points to two problems with the June 28, 2012 EU deal that allows the EU rescue fund to buy Spanish and Italian bonds and provide capital aid directly to Spanish banks. One is the limited funds of the rescue fund, European Financial Stability Facility or by its other name European Stability Mechanism. The EFSF or ESM lacks credibility because it lacks resources, it has only 248 billion euros, and has to first raise money in the bond markets. A better approach would be for the ECB to buy Spanish and Italian bonds aggressively, allowing a smaller spread between these bonds and the German bonds, says Grauewe. Germany is the largest shareholder at the ECB and opposes this move as a form of mutualizing of debt in the EU. Grauwe's recent paper shows that the depressed bond conditions for Spain and Italy are driven largely by a psychology of fear and not hard true economic numbers. Christopher Marks, global head of debt capital markets at BNP Paribas, says it is important to create the confidence to get longer term core investors such as pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and insurance companies back into this market for Spanish and Italian bonds by reducing volatility and yield. These longer term investors have left the market creating a severe problem. The shorter term investors, who came into this market in the last 1-2 years, are now the loudest voice saying Spain and Italy are likely to fail. These shorter term investors are either selling these bonds short or getting credit default swaps. A big problem coming out of the June 28, 2012 agreement, is that it is short on details. The details of how the rescue fund will operate, its funding, and the conditions for making making direct loans for stakes in banks or buying government bonds are still to be clarified. Germany's Constitutional Court also will rule on how this would be conducted and the Merkel government would continue tough negotiations on the details creating added uncertainty. ...

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This WSJ editorial points out a big concern in the third quarter 2012 economic growth figures- the figure showing non-housing related investment contracting by 1.3%. It says the U.S. borrowed $5 trillion and all it got in return was 1.7% economic growth- 1.7% being the growth in U.S. GDP for the first 9 months of 2012. It also points out that the growth came from consumer spending and the Federal Reserve's money printing. The consumer spending would be hard pressed to continue if incomes remain stagnant without the capital investment and hiring from the private sector. Government spending accounts for 0.7% of the GDP growth, and estimates for private sector growth in output is about 1.3%.

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People in Japan are living longer healthier lives. So much so that people are working well into their 70's. In Nagano, Japan, people say that those in their 40's and 50's are like a child with a runny nose, and people in their 60's and 70's are in the prime of their careers. In this WSJ report, 38 years old Norohiro Aizawa is a part time farmer, who says he plans to work into his 70's like many farmers in Japan. Today his father in his early 70's is active and in charge. Sachiko Kobayashi runs a crafts business, has a job making box lunches, and a garden full of pumpkins and radishes. She is 65 and gets up at 3 am. In Nagano she is called by the term pre-elderly, not elderly. For elderly she has a long way to go. Japan has 29% of the population in under over 65 years group, Europe 21% and US 17%. Yet something else is happening. People are just taking better care of themselves and their health, and living, working longer. A 70 year old today in Nagano is in health status like a 60 year old one or two generations ago. Perceptions of what is elderly have changed.    Japan's White Paper on the Elderly in 2021 shows studies suggesting that many in the 65-74 year group do not share traits associated with the term elderly.  Only 6% require care by others. Half of 65-69 year olds hold jobs, and a third of those in their early 70's also hold jobs. Life expectancy in Japan stretches into the late 80's for women, and early 80's for men. This is almost 5-8 years more than countries like the UK with a strong national health service. In April 2021 a revised Employment Law took effect, telling big employers to offer work to workers until age 70, up from previously government sanctioned retirement age of 65 years. Government says it is meant to protect the right of people to work longer. There is even a term called late-elderly.  Oshima 82 of Nagano, leads a volunteer group that shoots video of community festivals and works late into the night, and is cited in this WSJ story as saying that even if people called him late elderly, his response is oh yeah? I don't care. It is all about living a full life, terms don't matter at all when one stays healthy.   ...

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This story in the NYT showing America's GE building a wind turbine three times as large as the Statue of Liberty in New York harbour, comes after a decade of bad news from GE, beginning with its role in the mortgage financial crisis when its stock dropped to new lows. Bad bets on conventional power generation in its power division are leading to the change at GE where it is now investing in renewable energy. Under CEO Immelt GE did not anticipate the surge in growth of renewable energy powered by government subsidies. Now GE is pursuing an aggressive strategy by building larger wind turbines than its competitors Vestas in Denmark and Senvion in Germany. A 12 megawatt turbine is planned by GE called Haliade-X, to be built at a cost of $400 million for demonstration in 2019, shipping units in 2021. Competitors are looking at building a 10 megawatt wind turbine. Vestas SA and Mitsubishi Heavy Industries have a 9.5 megawatt wind turbine in operation as prototype in Denmark. The bit of good news comes with the backdrop of big changes at GE as its power division falters badly. GE under Immelt badly misjudged the market for gas and coal turbines, building inventory and resorting to aggressive pricing, not anticipating the push evident in Germany and in China towards renewable energy. The shift to renewable energy reduced demand for conventional power in Germany and the U.S. In Germany. Electric companies in conventional power generation are struggling. At GE orders declined by 25% and profits by 50% in the 4th quarter over the prior year. 12,000 job cuts are planned in the power division, 18% of its workforce. Older board members at GE are expected to leave, and GE under new CEO/Chairman John Flannery plans to shed $20 billion in assets in a major restructuring and shift to renewables.   Larger wind turbines of 10 megawatts or larger are the next stage in wind energy as the Netherlands and Germany move to build wind farms free of subsidies. The economics of larger wind turbines are critical as less geographic acreage is needed with larger turbines. ...

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Thomas Hoenig was Governor of the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank for 20 years. Here he talks about the dangers of "too big to fail" with Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times. He is due to retire at the age of 65 in 2011. Hoeinig has stood for conservative safe financial practices for U.S. financial institutions throughout his 20 year old career, and cautioned against extending the government safety net for banks that engage in risky financial activities including derivatives trading. And essential element of safe financial practice and part of necessary market discipline, he has pointed consistently, is the fear that taking on risky activities or acting recklessly has a price- creditors can take out their funds if they see a banks as unsafe, and the financial institution may have to be broken up or closed. He joins Alan Meltzer in his criticism of Federal Reserve policies under first Greenspan and then Bernanke that take on the job of stimulating the economy and creating jobs through a very loose monetary policy after the collapse of a bubble. Hoenig sees the role of the Fed in such situations as a neutral player. The reason say Meltzer and Hoenig is that the Fed has not given enough thought and attention to the long term consequences of its policies. What were the consequences of the low rate policies in 2003 asks Hoenig? It promoted another bubble and the mortgage meltdown of 2008. What were the consequences of QE II asks Meltzer in an op-ed piece in the Wall Street Journal on August 11, 2011, "The Folly of Economic Short-Termism?" It has failed to revive the economy or reduce unemployment. Hoenig also points to questions of fairness and equity that arise when banks are treated differently and farmers, seniors and other groups are asked to make sacrifices....

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Changes in the venture capital industry in 2013 to smaller funds with fewer partners, and focussed on fewer areas. Investors are turning down request for funds from venture capital firms because of poor returns. Other than a couple of brand name firms the venture capital firms have not produced high returns. Ignition Partners is reducing the size of its fund to $150 million from the $400 million raised in 2007. When compared with the return on the stock market the returns produced by the venture capital industry do not look attractive. U.S. venture capital funds produced returns of 6.1% for the last ten years ending September 2012, according to Cambridge Associates LLC. Compare this with Nasdaq Composite Index 10.3% increase and the Dow Jones Indusrial Average 8.6% increase during this period, and one sees why investors are becoming more discerning, moving away from the venture capital firms. The old approach of venture capital firms was based on hit and miss by putting many companies in a basket and hoping for a big hit. Over time the value added to the startup companies by venture firms has declined. There are fewer companies which have the potential for big hits and much of the technological landscape for the internet and software revolution has been filled, leading to one or two big hits such as Facebook and LinkedIn. Large developments for new technological innovation are coming from established companies such as Google and Apple, because of the huge software developments compressed into shorter periods and the investments required....

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This WSJ story shows how China started its steel industry from small beginnings when Chinese leader Deng visited a Nippon Steel plant in 1978. He made the decision to go big with Baosteel, with an investment of $6 billion, with the words- "if we do it lets do it big." This was 36 times the Chinese foreign exchange reserves at the time. From 4% of steel production, this went up and up, passing the U.S. in 1993, past Japan in 1996, and in 2018 producing three times the steel of U.S., Russia and China combined, producing 923 million metric tons of steel in 2018, or more than half of world production of steel. With steel China was able to build its automobile industry, shipbuilding, bridges, infrastructure, high speed rail network. This was done using global demand, subsidies from the government, cheap loans and tax breaks. Markets worldwide were affected by substantial excess production in China. From Baosteel the spread of the steel industry to all 23 Chinese provinces led to China accounting for 25% of world exports. By 2016 5 million workers mostly from the agrarian countryside were employed in the steel industry, helping China transform itself into an rapidly urbanizing and modern economy. It was a period when the rail network was tripled between 1975-2017, with shipping companies that ensured access to Australian coal and Brazilian iron ore. From 2011 to 2017 Chinese steel dropped global prices by 57% triggering closure of steel mills in EUrope and the U.S. About a third of trade complaints since 2001 by G20 countries against China are about steel. After entry into the WOrld Trade Organization Chinese steel exports rose to 8% of GDP from 2%. Subsidies, cheap energy, and shift of agrarian workers to cities. U.S. investigations around 2006 showed Chinese steelmakers subsidies covered 30% to 45% of the subsidized value of steel pipes exported overseas. China's steel prices were set 20-40% lower than the U.S. China responded to complaints saying it was trade protectionism. The WTO rules call for full disclosing of all subsidies. This was disclosed 5 years after joining WTO in 2001, and only for central subsidies. Local government subsidies were not disclosed till 2016- the U.S. says 15 years late. Still the Bush and Obama administrations failed to take action. In 2018 Mr. Trump seized on this as a campaign issue that resonated with American workers in manufacturing communities across the U.S. In 2018 November president Trump announced a 25% tariff on imports of Chinese steel. A six month probe by U.S. officials had already shown 40% of sales value came from subsidies for corrosion resistant steel from China. The U.S. Trade Commission imposed tariffs of its own from 39% to 241%, with the Trump tariffs of 25% coming as an additional tariff to tackle the trade surplus with China. Meanwhile in China the government is closing uncompetitive smaller steel mills and in 2016 it combined baosteel with Wuhan Steel to create a larger company, and consolidate remaining companies. Baosteel now provides the steel for CIMC to dominate the steel container business, and to make ship to shore cranes, and make the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge.  It also goes to show what can be accomplished from small beginnings for countries in the developing world from Asia to Africa and Latin America, with government and industry focussed on development and growth.   ...