LyrArc Article Gist
This Journal editorial says Germany and France will have to pay for preserving the Eurozone one way or another. It suggests a direct approach of the German and French governments injecting capital for recapitalizing German and French banks that would take losses on bad loans to Greece, Ireland, Portugal, and Spain; combining this with bondholder haircuts for creditors, and reforms that include spreading the burden for Irish bank debt and cleaning up the cajas savings banks mess in Spain. This would mean exactly the opposite of what is taking place now, including the abandoning of individual country rescues and bailouts; which the Journal calls extending loans and pretending the problem is not with German and French banks that would have losses on the bad loans. The problem is that this places the entire burden on austerity measures in each bailout country which reduces growth and raises unemployment to levels that make the problem much worse than before. This is not happening because of a serious failure to reach agreement on the shared sacrifice and cooperation between the governments, creditor banks, the ECB and other parties in the eurozone, on a serious debt restructuring across the eurozone that would put the euro back to stability with some mechanism for serious financial discipline in eurozone states....

LyrArc Article Gist
Under IMF and US presssure S. Korea's government took tough steps to resolve its banking crisis in 1997. The government closed or restructured 12 of the 32 largest banks and put in $60 billion to write off bad loans and replenish cash reserves of remaining banks, says Prof. Eichengreen. The Korea Asset Management Corporation, a public fund, bought about two-thirds of the problem loans on the bank's books, to free up capital for new loans. This was also done in a compressed period of time under US pressure. In the US because of heavy lobbying influence in Washington and with the Bush and Obama administrations, and the lack of any external pressures such as S. Korea experienced, the banking industry has not undergone a serious restructuring. Volcker recommended reforms have actually been watered down. The difference in the two approaches is striking. S. Korea had the advantage of being able to rebound with exports to a growing US and Europe during that period. A serious restructuring of the banking industry was the first step, something that has not taken place in the US. And there is a failure to cleanup the problem of mortgage backed securities in the US financial system. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Mexican president Nieto's poll numbers are at all time low of 24%, according to Reforma newspaper. He took office in late 2012 and has been hurt by human rights scandal of the murder of 43 students in the state of Guerrero, corruption issues, and failure to improve the economy. The invitation to Trump to visit Mexico left even people close to the president surprised, and was criticized widely inside Mexico. It is not clear what Trump or Nieto gained from the trip. As Trump continued his talk about building a wall on the Mexican border and having Mexico pay for the estimated $23 billion it would cost. He did this in a speech to supporters in Pheonix on the same day he met Nieto, showing the use of teleprompters and prepared script was not his way of campaigning. Just as the message to black people that Democrats take them for granted cannot resonate without the basic message delivered with compassion and understanding- such as done by the presidents Bush and Reagan- so also the message to Hispanic people is suffering from the same lack of empathy. Recent polls show only 3% of blacks support Trump. McCain and Romney gained only 4-6% in the U.S. presidential elections of 2008 and 2012. The message of the wall is also baffling as an election strategy. A Gallup poll in July 2016 shows only 15% of Americans opposing a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants, and only 24% of Republicans. There is another problem in the strategy. The rhetoric about walls and mass deportations, and the Trump temperament combined with handling of nuclear weapons is not winning college educated women in the suburbs with polls showing Trump lagging behind Clinton by about 20 points or 4 million voters with this group. It is hard to undo the damage done by this kind of rhetoric used in the primary elections as it gains distrust of voters. It would require a bad economy with illegal immigrants taking local jobs, and handling of immigration seen as weak, for such a message to gain some national traction. Both are absent for the most part with a steadily improving economy since 2012, lower unemployment, a tough enforcement policy on deportatons under Obama that exceeded that under Geoge W. Bush, and the talk of a wall comes with illegal immigration having declined steeply since the 2008 financial crisis. The real culprit appears to be elsewhere, the triple hit taken from hollowing out of the manufacturing economy that hurt the Conservatives in Canada, the insecurity created for older whites from the job losses and hits to net worth from the 2008-2009 financial crisis, and the increasing loss of access to health care and educational opportunities with high  costs. About 62 million households or the bottom half of the distribution in the U.S. have a net worth of about $10,000, a quarter of this group having zero net worth, according to the Federal Reserve's Janet Yellen at an Inequality Conference in Oct 2014. Problems no wall is going to solve, problems that built up over 2 decades, problems that will take a generation to fix.  It shows the tech miracle of the last 2 decades as a mirage for quality of life of the middle and working class. Tech as a tool to a goal, not a goal in itself, is the better way forward. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Alan Blinder points out that the political partisanship that has emerged in 2010 has not served America well, as it has deprived the government of the fiscal policy tools, which would be more effective than the Fed's only mildly effective tool of buying $100 billion a month of medium and long term Treasury debt. The country he says is tied up in partisan knots that prevents the use of the fiscal policy tools, and leaves the Fed with the choice of doing something only nudging the rates on government and private securites a bit (by 30 basis points for Treasury debt and 15 basis points for private securities as an example, not enough for more than a mild impact on corporate spending). The fiscal policy tools are he says of a wide variety and pack a lot more power, and he cites three as examples: offering significant lasting tax breaks for job creation, large enough to produce results (larger and long term than the HIRE program), government hiring directly onto public payrolls and government paying local and state governments for hiring at the local levels, the government offering to compensate states for a cut in the sales tax for a year to stimulate consumer spending. Would'nt this raise the deficit though? Blinder points out that the deficit problem lies in the future. Right now there is so much slack in the economy, that public spending will not crowd out private spending. And with Treasury rates at an all time low, Treasury can finance the larger deficit in the short term. A depreciation of the dollar or inflation, he says, is not a worry, because now there is worry about deflation, and the USA needs a lower dollar to push exports up and rebalance its economy. This does not slight the deficit issue and the culture of poor budgeting among both parties, as Reagan Budget Director David Stockman pointed out in an op-ed piece, but accomodates the real dangers and opportunities of difficult policy choices. This is why he laments the advertising campaign and public relations campaign against the 2009 stimulus bill, and the expected paralysis of fiscal policy from the extremely partisan 2010 midterm elections, and public opinion consumed by fear of deficits. Leaving the Fed with the unenviable choice of using only mildly effective tools. Other experts and columnists mention the risks associated with the Fed's large scale purchase of securities, if this leads to another asset bubble and subsequent collapse, and another bailout needed for financial institutions. Peter Eavis in one column in the WSJ points to the lack of effectiveness of the first round of quantitative easing of $1.7 trillion. And Kelly Evans, in the WSJ, points to the risks of "bad" inflation, if another round of quantitative easing by the Fed leads to increases in the price of commodities such as oil and food (such inflation falling heaviest on lower income households).The US Financial Regulatory Reform bill has received low grades, and recent standards for reserve capital in worldwide banking reforms are stretched out over a long period, leaving fragility in the economic system, if something were to go wrong....

LyrArc Article Gist
The American Medical Association came out against the public option in President Obama's health care reform plan. The outpouring of comments on this article show that public opinion today seriously questions the actions of the AMA, and think that this is not in the best interests of the nation. Its the kind of outpouring of criticism that GM's old management received from readers fed up with the management of the Detroit automakers, before the GM bankruptcy. Out of the 26 most read or recommended comments on this article shown on the link to the article in the NYT, 25 were strongly critical of the AMA's position on health care, none were in favor, and one was critical of the insurance companies. The 25 that were strongly critical had a total of reader recommends of 6539 readers when they were totalled up for all 25 comments. Some of these comments were strongly critical and explained at length why. Some were from doctors who disassociated themselves from the AMA. One suggested that the American College of Physicians also represented doctors, and the AMA represented only one group of mostly older doctors who are against any change. The financial crisis and the election of a new President, the changes in the country since the last failed reform effort in 1993, the new mood of the country as it changes to its more frugal past, a new generation of doctors and a new generation of young people coming to the fore, all may mean that things are no longer the same, and actually very different. Are the people running the AMA, like the people who were running GM a short time ago, not able to see how they are perceived by the public? ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Peter Eavis discusses ways in which regulators are conducting ongoing supervision of large banks under the Dodd-Frank legislation- with stress tests, and the review of living wills of banks in 2016

LyrArc Article Gist
Bond and derivative deals made between U.S. banks and Jefferson County in Alabama have resulted in steep losses and higher taxes to pay for the losses. Spencer Bachus represents Jefferson County in the U.S. Congress. He also received $7.1 million from financial companies, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. J.P. Morgan Chase which arranged the deal for Jefferson County, is also the largest contributor for the political campaign donations to Bachus.

LyrArc Article Gist
The Japanese economy went through asevere contraction in the first quarter 2009, declining 15% on an annualized basis. But Japan's unemployment rate in April was 4.8%, compared with much higher rates in EUrope and even higher rates in the USA. France and Germany have social democratic states that protect workers jobs, and Germany even after the Harz reforms continues to help workers deal with unemployment making it least painful as possible with government help. Japan takes this astep further. The law in Japan requires that even though companies can cut worker's hours, they must pay at least 60% of their hourly wages during that time. THe government provides help. It has budgeted $624 million this year to reimburse companies for half of these payments. In March 48,000 companies got subsidies for 2.38 million employees according to government figures. This includes large companies like NEC Electronics and Nissan Motor. THey have to find things for the workers to do, community service like keeping the area clean, vegetable gardens, handicrafts shop, anything that helps the communities. A recent survey by the Nikkei financial daily, shows zero percent of large business owners said they had plans to layoff permanent staff members, compared with 39% in South Korea. WIthout this the unemployment rate, say experts, would be 2 percentage points higher....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Portuguese government asked the European Union for bailout loans. The aid the EU is providing to Portugal comes with conditions- asking Portugal to make additional austerity cuts even as new elections loom. The aid is essentially more loans at high interest rates, even if the rates are lower than the steep rates in financial markets for a country with a collapsing credit rating. There is serious concern about whether this formula applied by the EU is going to work because at this rate it may take a decade or more for Portugal to pay off all the loans. The major problem is that with severe spending cuts- a country that lacks competitiveness and cannot devalue its currency because of being the euro zone- it is that much harder to generate growth. Simon Tilford, chief economist for the Center for European Reform in London, says the EU leaders have failed to come to grips with the core of the problem for Ireland, Greece and now Portugal- which is how to restore the finances to some sustainability, and how this could ever be achieved by a policy of deeper and deeper spending cuts. Tilford points out that the other more fundamental problem EU leaders are not tackling, is that the problem is deep down the large amount of Portuguese, Irish and Greek debt held by German, French, British, Spanish and Dutch banks. If these countries default the governments of these countries would have to recapitalize their banks at the expense of the taxpayers of Germany, France, Britain, Netherlands. Political leaders of these countries want to avoid confronting angry taxpayers and lose political support. Germany has called for a bondholder haircut, something that banking interests do not support. Tilford says Portugal is not getting a bailout, because for a bailout there would need to be a default by Portugal. What it is getting along with Ireland and Greece, are loans at high interest rates, and an EU plan that simply stifles the ability to pay back accumulated debt, leaving the situation in limbo for some future resolution....

LyrArc Article Gist
The Economist points to Mexico's potential and compares it favorably to Brazil and China. Mexico's people are better educated and have higher standards of living than most developing countries including Brazil. Technical education is one of Mexico's strengths and it has good management talent. It suffered badly in the global financial crisis of 2008 because of the recession in the U.S., but it does not have to lower its sights and live with lower growth as the U.S. economy suffers a slowdown. As Chinese wages have risen, Mexico is looking better as a place to invest. And even as Brazil's credit markets getting overheated, there is much room for credit growth in the Mexican economy. Mexico could achieve a growth rate higher by about 2.5 percentage points according to one estimate, if it attracts more foreign investment and opens up the oil industry to foreign investment, implements reform for labor markets and opens up many sectors to competition. It needs to restricts the monopolies granted to businesses such as Telefonos Mexico run by Carlos Slim, as well as other cartels and monopolies to achieve higher economic efficency....

LyrArc Article Gist
U.S. Treasury Secretary Geithner says Republicans are working to thwart the Dodd-Frank legislation- by slowing down and diluting the impact of rules required to be written under Dodd-Frank, crimping the resources of regulatory agencies, and blocking the nominations of heads of regulatory agencies such as the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.

LyrArc Article Gist
Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

LyrArc Article Gist
The U.S. FDIC voted on March 29, 2011, to propose new rules that will require banks to hold at least 5% of the credit risk on securities backed by mortgages. During the mortgage crisis banks were able to sell packages of risky mortgages to investors without having some stake in the loans, leading to speculative behaviours. This proposal was mandated by the Dodd-Frank Act and was voted unanimously at the FDIC. Because the proposal does not apply to securities carrying a government guarantee, which is 90% of the market today, this will not have an immediate impact. Some mortgages are excluded- under one proposal mortgages where a borrower puts a 20% down payment would be excluded, and borrowers would have to meet an income threshold, and be current on all loans. The proposal is a joint effort of the FDIC, and the Securities and Exchange Commission. The idea is to have securitization to occur in an environment where the issuers of securities backed by mortgages have some skin in the game. Securities experts commented favorably on the rule and the proposals. The presence of such a rule would clearly have changed the behaviour of mortgage securities issuers in the U.S. 2008 subprime financial crisis....

LyrArc Article Gist
Prof. Jeffrey Wasserstrom of UC Irvine reviews Henry Paulson's "Dealing With China." Paulson was head of Goldman Sachs investment bank and Secretary of the Treasury 2006-2009, the period of the global financial crisis. He made 70 visits to China since his days at Goldman Sachs and calls Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Jinping "old friends." He established the Strategic Economic Dialogue in the Bush administration for dialogue on economic issues with China, and setup the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago to focus on China-U.S. relations. One of Paulson's points is that China's financial system faces a day of reckoning, with large losses and many restructurings. Wasserstrom's review looks at Paulson's view of dealing with China and points to a sense that it needs updating because by the time the book is published a lot has changed with the new Jinping administration. The new administration in China is more assertive in foreign affairs, and less tolerant of both the corruption that became part of the Chinese capitalist development inside a state run one party system, and of the voices for more openness. It also has placed tight controls on the Internet. Jinping sees a constructive role for the Communist party in the future as China makes economic reforms away from state run enterprises, and is working to strengthen the party through discipline and anti-corruption initiative. The reckoning Paulson mentions, Krugman and other experts have described in other language- not as a reckoning but that China was no exception and would face the same problems that the U.S. and the eurozone faced since 2008 from financial excesses. In this sense Paulson's views and interactions with the Chinese leadership may represent another era, a period of exuberance when some of these financial excesses were being built up. Today's economic team of Jinping and Li Keqiang is more focussed on making sure the transition through a economic crisis is managed carefully, keeping in mind the risks for China considering its history, and the situation where China is still a "middle income country" with aspirations for further development to improve incomes and living standards. Their view is that tight control is needed as China makes this transition to a less state enterprise dependent, and more consumer economy, so that there is no loss of the gains made so far. A different set of skills and deft management of the economy is needed, making Paulson's views from another era less relevant. External influences such as managing the complex China-Japan relationship as both countries become more assertive are creating another dynamic in Asia, which Chinese leaders may see as requiring careful management, making Paulson's experience less relevant for a new period with new challenges. For the U.S. the economic cooperation with China now occurs with an added political dimension. Of concern for the tight control, seen as not forward looking and not bringing more constructive voices into the system, and the new complexities of carefully managing the changing U.S.-China-Japan relationship in Asia. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Compared to the situation in 2008-2009 during the global financial crisis with the excess supply of labor, China in 2012 faces an excess in demand for labor. In 2009 about 20% of migrant workers were unemployed when the crisis hit, and wages dropped 10% for migrant workers, according to the Chinese Academy of Sciences and Stanford University. The situation three years later is one of tight labor markets and higer wages. A large stimulus in not only not needed today in the way it was in 2008-2009 as a way to maintain social stability, it would reduce the benefits of the anti-inflationary steps taken in 2011-2012, by putting more pressure on wages and prices. Manufacturing sector wages increased by 20.1% in 2011, according to China's statistics bureau. This may be why the Chinese government is taking measured steps to avoid creating more bad loans through indiscriminate lending, and being more selective in accelerating development projects in the pipeline. According to Hong Kong's new Chief Executive Officer China plans to have about 7% growth. This shift in approach would help China refocus on growth strategies recommended in the recent Development Reform Commission and World Bank Report on China....

LyrArc Article Gist
Eisinger says ten years from now people will look back and say Dodd-Frank has made our financial system safer. It has received the kind of criticism leveled at Sarbanes-Oxley which was a response to another period of bad practices in accounting and finance.

LyrArc Article Gist
Frank Rich on the lobbyists influence on Congress and the Obama administration at top levels. And the efforts by lobbyists to kill any efforts at reform. He details the activities of lobbyists working with the Obama adminsitraion. President Obama risks losing his opportunity for change and with it his credibility as a change advocate. A series of Washington Post articles have detailed the activities of lobbyists in high places that threaten to gut most of the President's reform proposals. Rich points out that it is not clear whether the ostentatious daily activities at a meeting place the Ristorante Tosca is abad omen for the lobbyists or also for the Obama adminsitration or for both. This opinion piece was listed No 1 in the Most popular articles on October 4, 2009, which says the public is listening and watching.

LyrArc Article Gist
Fletcher cites statistics from the federal Bureau of Labor Statistics showing that between December 2007 and June 2010, private sector employment in Texas went down by 0.6%. During that period public sector jobs increased by 6.4%. Government employees make up about 17% of the workforce in Texas. The Texas economy gets a large amount of federal money because of military installations and NASA- $227 billion in 2009, according to the Census Bureau. By comparison California received $346 billon in 2009. During the recession period after the global financial crisis of 2008, Texas received $25 billion in stimulus money. Richard Fisher of the Dallas Federal Reserve Bank acknowleges the federal money going into Texas, yet he points out the driving force in the economy of Texas is still the private sector. For the private sector there are several advantages to being in Texas. There are lower taxes- no state income tax and lower business taxes. The large supply of land for development and few land-use restrictions make development easier. Corporate efficiency was a key advantage cited by Fluor when it moved from Orange County, California to Texas. A growing energy sector has helped, along with the growing trade with Mexico. The housing regulations in the state have acted as a check on housing prices, and left Texas with less of the detrimental effects of the housing mortgage crisis than the rest of the nation, especially California and Florida. The governor of Texas, Rick Perry, says he is not against all regulation, and the kind of housing regulation in Texas certainly has played a good role for Texas. Perry's tort reforms have reduced the legal burden on business prevalent in the rest of the U.S....

LyrArc Article Gist
Two realities are affecting exchanges. One is that trading commodities and derivatives is a $600 trillion business worldwide and is more profitable than trading in corporate shares. This shows in the value of ICE and NYSE in the stock market. In April 2011 ICE was valued at $1.5 billion less than NYSE, in Dec 2012 ICE was valued at $4 billion more that NYSE as it makes its bid to merge with NYSE. The other is that the Dodd-Frank financial system overhaul in the U.S. after the 2008 financial crisis has created a new model for derivatives trading providing advantages to regulated electronic exchanges and clearinghouses that handle derivatives trades with transparency. Jeffrey Sprecher, CEO of ICE, the IntercontinentalExchange, which handles derivatives trading through its clearinghouse operations, says: "For the past decade, our solutions made our markets increasingly electronic and increasingly clear. Today, financial reform is imposing that vision on many markets through a rule-making process." Bart Chilton, a member of the CFTC which regulates derivatives trading says Dodd-Frank legislation supports the business model of derivatives exchanges. This is especially true for Mr Sprecher and ICE. Sprecher has a good relationship with regulators with whom he talks directly, and is supportive of CFTC efforts to close loopholes as he is confident he can make money as long as the rules are clear. His confidence stems from his model which is technology based from day one, with its own clearinghouse and technology based transparency of the ICE data vault, information it shares with regulators. Sprecher stumbled upon this opportunity. He is an executive in the power industry. Working on developing power plants Sprecher found it was difficult for power firms to hedge investments in energy with financial contracts because there was no well organized, clear and transparent market for such contracts. This he set out to do by buying a little know exchange in Atlanta for buying and selling electricity, later getting the the backing of BP, and investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, to form ICE in 2000. Banks liked the idea of a having an organized clear place to buy and sell derivatives in oil and other commodities, and having an alternative to the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in futures trading. Swaps trading under Dodd Frank supervision is converting to old style futures contracts where there is less competition for ICE's futures trading creating new opportunity. ICE setup its own clearinghouse, and acquired the Clearing Corporation, which was the base for a derivative called credit-default swap. To make derivatives trading transparent and reduce systemic risk Dodd-Frank legislation required exchanges to provide information to data warehouses which would then share the information with regulators. ICE setup its own data warehouse to do this called ICE Trade Vault. Dood-Frank rules envisioned the formation of clearinghouses and exchange such a ICE to provide a clear process, transparency and reduce systemic risk in derivatives trading. ICE under Sprecher by making this vision its own and using technology has created new opportunity. ...

LyrArc Article Gist
Lowenstein, author of the book "The End of Wall Street," says that the government should not let firms like Goldman open a table for wagering on corporate failure just as it would not let Caesar's Palace open a table for wagering on corporate failure. He says the first priority for Congress is to end the culture that as he puts it "financializes" every economic result. turning every mortgage or bond issue into a speculation with second level and third level securities. No factories are being financed, no no new products are being launched in this wild speculative frenzy that has overcome Wall Street and endangers the safety of the financial system and its integrity, and character.