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President Xi Jinping's Made in China 2025 plan has spurred startups in electric car technologies, and raises concern about overcapacity. Electric cars is one of 10 sectors in the Made in China 2025 plan to promote global competitiveness for Chinese companies and domestic dominance. China Construction Bank and National Development and Reform Commission announced a $47 billion plan. Direct government subsidies of $15 billion over last 5 years have also increased the number of startups.

All automakers in China are required to produce electric cars. The electric cars sold in China at 777,000 make up half of the electric cars sold in the world. 

Local governments in places such as Anhui province have invested in electric car companies. One such company Singulato in Tongling, Anhui, is profiled here, with its first electric car expected by the end of the year priced at $43,000.

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Next to what Brzail is doing under President Da Silva with a program to aid the poorest in Brazil pay for food and necessities, this program is a commendable one and could turn ou to be a big achievement as it becomes popular with the poorest people in India. It certainly will be true over the next 5-10 years that by improving the conditions of the poorest 300 million people it will go a long way towards creating and enhancing the conditions throughout India, and bring millions of people who could become new markets for the nation's consumer and other companies. The task of providing better nutrition along with hospital care could also be tackled with similar programs and also schooling so that the lives of the next generation can be significantly improved and children do not have to live the drudgery and difficult lives of their parents who are struggling for a living. Important thing is for a small cost of $1 billion people it carries the whole nation and its poorest 300 million people forward....

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Bars and restaurants filled with people just increases the risk. Consider that on one day June 20, 500,000 people went to bars in Los Angeles county the day after they reopened, as reported in the WSJ. This is similar to what happened in soccer stadiums in Lombardy, Italy, spreading the virus like wildfire. Experts say social distancing is easier to do in office locations and at work, than at bars, restaurants inside, and at soccer stadiums, or large gatherings of any sort. In just one situation 138 new cases were traced to a bar in East Lansing. Michigan.

Most of the restlessness about the lockdown was about not being able to get to work after weeks inside. And getting outside to a park for exercize was always safer because it was easier to keep social distancing in these places.

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Sales of small cars have dropped significantly, and sales of Cherry Automobile Company China's largest domestic carmaker dropped 40% in September 2008 over a year earlier and 6% in October 2008. Nationally car sales increased 11% in October 2008 over the previous year after declines of 6% in August and 2% in September. China levies a tax of roughly 8.6% on a car's taxable price which is calculated based on the car's retail price and the size of the engine, with larger engines taxed more. What the carmakers like Cherry want is for the government to lower this sales tax on small cars and cars with environmentally friendly technology. Another step is for the government to lower state set fuel prices as prices of world crude go down to below $50 a barrel and encourage more fuel efficient cars with a fuel tax. Chinese public policy as stated by the government, and Chen Bin, Director of the Industry division of the National Development and Reform Commission is to boost domestic demand.

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This report in the NYT shows a grim reality that about 70% of 15400 nursing homes offering a place for the elderly in America are for profit and some owned by private investors who seek to turn a profit on the operations. With competition from home care support and assisted living facilities the investors were having a hard time turning a profit on the operations resulting in deterioration in quality of operations and care. 

 Japan, Scandinavian countries, and Germany, other countries have a better system for quality of life as people get older.

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BYD shares have fallen sharply as sales of its gasoline powered cars have declined in the Chinese market, declining by 43% from the high by Feb. 8, 2012. Part of the problem is that sales have shifted to foreign brands. BYD pushed ahead with developing electric car technologies, but the market appears to be moving in the direction of gasoline-electric hybrid cars, in which the Japanese manufacturers have the lead. BYD sold very basic cars at the low end of the price range. In 2009 and 2010 the government provided incentives with reduced sales tax for cars with small engines and subsidized sales in rural areas, which helped BYD sales. These program were phased out. In 2011 restrictions on cars went into effect for Beijing, with license plates for the municipal region reduced by two thirds, to limit the automobile congestion in the city. The license plates were distributed using a lottery system., This further shifted purchases to the higher price end made by foreign brands. BYD now sees the future sales potential in hybrid gasoline-electric cars and has changed its strategy....

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Development of new fuel efficient cars, electric cars, new hybrid cars, costs money, and manufacturing facilities to build these cars in large numbers also takes large investments. Not only do the Japanese carmakers have a huge leg up over American carmakers in having development on these technologies started early because of the conservation ethic in Japan's use of energy, but now because of being in much better financial shape than their competitors in te USA they can make the huge investments going forward in the next 10 years. Note the huge costs of development. Honda spends an estimated $1 million on every FCX Clarity, Honda's new hydrogen fuel-cell car, that it makes today. It hopes to get the production costs below $100,000 per car.

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Tax changes for autombiles as part of a"fiscal correction" were announced by the Finance Minister, Pranab Mukherjee. The base excise tax on most goods manufactured in India was raised from 10% to 12%. The excise tax on larger cars with gasoline engines above 1.2 litres or diesel engines above 1.5 litres was raised to 24% from 22%. The customs tax on imported cars and SUV's over $40,000 and gasoline engine over 3000 cubic centimetres, or diesel engine over 2500 cubic centimetres was increased to 75% from 60%.

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What can be guessed easily the less forunate or poorer sections of society are way more likely to be charged high interest rates or exorbitant interest rates by credit card companies is confiremed by a research report. Demos, a nonpartisan public policy research and advocacy group, says in areport, that low-uincome and lower-middle class income cardholders were about five times more likely than the wealthiest cardholders to pay more than 20% interest. It breaks down users into 4 categories, with the last two being late payers and people with revolving balances. If this graphed out the picture would show practically the entire profit of the credit card companies coming from these two. The reason being that the other two categories are those who have cards and don't use them so don't get billed, and those who pay before the due date so they pay no charges except what the credit card companies make from the business from whom the purchase is made. This means says Singletary of the WPost that the better off well to do sections of society are actually having their annual fees subsidized by the poorer sections of society, or the lower middle class. Singletary says to a online discussion person who though his cards without annual fees were free, they were never really free, and few people think of this. As a society its like hitting oneself in the foot, because by impacting students, minorities, the lower middle class and other sections of society- which form amajority of the people in the country- at a time when they are deeply in debt, is to make for another hurdle to economic recovery. Its going to impact consumption, foreclosures and worsen the cycle that creates more unemployment. ...

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Ford plans $500 million investment in India to make a small car and makeIndia its hub for small car manufacture. It will also build a diesel engine plant. Ford plans to increase production from 42,000 cars in 2007 to 200,000 cars in 2010.

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With China's automobile market declining for the fifth month in a row, and trade tensions rising, it now appears that carmakers such as Ford expanded too quickly in the Chinese market. Ford, Peugeot, and Hyundai appear to have poorly times their expansion in China, expanding at the tail end of the Chinese boom just ahead of the new Trump administration's efforts to challenge China's lopsided trade balance.  It has become so bad that this report shows workers at a Peugeot factory in China spending their days washing floors and attending Communist political study sessions at work. At a Ford plant workers shifts are reduced to a couple of days a month. Sales grew 3% in 2017 and declined 2% in the first 11 months of 2018, after increases of 14% in previous years taking the market to 28 million in a dizzying ride as it surpassed the U.S. sales of 17.5 million. Overcapacity is a problem in China with the aggressive expansion. There is capacity to make 43 million cars, but will produce 29 million in 2018, according to PwC, consulting firm. Ford meanwhile put in a new plant in Harbin in 2017, expanding its capacity to 1.6 million a year, but sales peaked at 1.27 million in 2016, and are down 6% in 2017, and 34% in 2018 to about 700,000. While there are no layoffs some workers are making only $220 monthly, forcing them to take second jobs as cab drivers or couriers. Suzuki decided to quit in 2018 exiting China entirely just so it would not pile up losses in what is now a market that is way overblown from the boom years. Electric vehicle production in the pipeline of about 7.5 million vehicles will compound this problem further with 32 new plants planned by 26 firms.   ...

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Akio Toyoda of Toyota Motors resisted making a full scale commitment to EV's leading to Toyota falling behind in EV technology, ceding leadership to Chinese, American and German companies. This report in WSJ looks at how this happened. Toyota vehicle sales are declining and VW has overtaken Toyota. Toyoda failed to make a commitment to a date for going all electric and this has led to criticism of his management of the company and seen as resistance to the climate transition to EV's in the automobile industry putting behind the period of fossil fuel driven cars. Toyoda is the grandson of Kiichiro the founder of the company when it was in textiles in the 1920's. He says the the role of CEO is very lonely and very hard, as his early years were spent without the team spirit seen at the top and he was closer to the grassroots. He is now chairman and has given the decisions of the transition to EV's to the new CEO, Mr. Koji Sato.

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Japan's car exports have grown in the last six years to double what they were before, growing to $40 billion. This includes a jump in export of SUV's vehicles. Just in the first quarter of 2018 the export of automobiles from Japan to U.S. is up by 10%. Japan is not keen on talking about this issue. President Trump is looking at negotiating a one on one trade deal with Japan instead of through the TPP agreement. as this is seen as a better way to address a $60 billion trade deficit. TPP is not a solution for the U.S. imbalance in trade with Japan as Japan already has no tariffs on imported cars. Yet other barriers exist that make it difficult for U.S. automakers. Ford exited Japan in 2016 and the U.S. has only 1% of the Japanese market. Japanese buyers stay away from American cars and prefer the smaller highly fuel efficient cars made in Japan by Japanese automakers. Perception of buying home made also exist. Other barriers also exist such as zoning and for setting up dealerships, unique safety standards. Japanese automakers make most of the sedans in the U.S. but export the SUV's from Japan. ...

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GM, VW and Toyota are shrinking in China's rapidly expanding EV and hybrids market. Local China brands expanded by 9% to 61% of the market. 23 smaller Chinese brands were merged into larger China brands or exited the market. China's car market expanded by 5.5% to 22.9 million vehicles.  Production capacity is about twice that with 112 brands in the market. US is at about 16 million vehicles.

Production of EV's or plug in hybrids has hit 10 million in China in 2024, so that about half of all vehicles made in 2024 are EV's or hybrids.

Tesla China sales at 662,000,, up 8%, with Model Y selling at $33,000 and 5 year car loans at no interest from Tesla. China's leader BYD sells 4 million cars in 2024. GM's 6 plants in China suffered- GM lost 50% of it's sales in 2024 and took a $5 billion charge.

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The electric car industry in China is led by the state run electric companies. China Southern Power Grid is one of the companies leading the pioneering efforts.

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Chinese cars priced 25% below competition in Quito, Ecuador. China sold 612,000 cars overseas in 2008.

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The Chevy Volt GM's plug in electric car comes out in 2010. Toyota plans to bring its plug in electric car in late 2009. A company in China, BYD, has already come out with an electric car, the F3DM, priced at 150,000 yuan or $22,000. By contrast the Chevy Volt is expected to be priced at $40,000 when it comes out in 2010. Essentially this gives the market leadership to BYD, because it would have 2 years of experience with its cars on the road, and $40,000 is just not a commercially viable price if a competitor can sell it for half the price. So how does BYD do it? Wang Chuanfu is founder and chairman of BYD Co. a battery and car maker. BYD has built up low cost, high quality and highly motivated research and development capabilities. Wang put together about 10,000 technicians and engineers, many fresh out of colleges and technical schools in China. As it learns the efficiencies of manufacturing and design it is able to bring this to bear on the H3DM improvement, for introduction of other new electric car models. And this technical capacity comes at a much lower cost in China compared to western countries. Wang's focus on this area making it possible to price at $22,000. The CEO of Mid American an Iowa based energy producer with majority stake ownership of Warren Buffett, was attracted to BYD for this very reason, and bought a 10% stake in BYD for $230 million. Wang believes there is a more level playing field in electric cars because of the simplicity of their design and fewer parts, making for a faster move up the learning curve. Electric cars have just 2 motors (45 parts each) and 2 gearboxes (60 parts each), a total of 210 parts excluding nuts and bolts. BYD's gasoline car the F6 has 1400 powertrain parts, 840 parts for the V6 and for transmission 560 parts. Says Wang, this puts all of us on the same starting line. The F3DM is the first real electric car being able to go for 60 miles exclusively on electricity on a full charge. A car that can go 180 miles on one full charge called the BYD e6 is planned for 2009. BYD uses iron-phosphate technology which is safer because of stable chemicals and less chance of fire from overheating. This is a key criteria for this lithium ion battery technology for cars. The Chevy Volt battery being developed by A123 company at MIT uses a similiar technology. BYD started with lithium ion battery development years ago. Its founder Mr Wang was fascinated by batteries when he studied metallurgical physics and chemistry in the mid 1980's for his Masters degree. He found a research position at the General Research Institute of Nonferrous Metals in Beijing, then decided to form his own company BYD in 1995, to develop lithium ion batteries with about 20 engineers. Experience was gained selling batteries to Samsung, Nokia and Motorola. In 2002 the company went public on the Hong Kong stock exchange. Wang was attracted to the idea of electric cars at this early stage even though he did not know how to drive. In 1998, says Wang, he had his engineers start upscaling development from cellphone battery technology to electric car battery technology. At the same time to pursue his vision for the development of electric cars Wang made the decision to learn car development by making and selling gasoline cars. The first car was a small sedan called the F3 brought out in 2005. By the last quarter of 2008 the F3 was one of China's best selling automobiles. Demand for BYD's F3 and F10 models is growing even as car sales are dropping in China, helping BYD to gain in car sales relative to Cherry Automobile and Geely Holding, two of the largest competitors. ...

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The percentage of credit card balances owed by subprime customers, according to Keefe Bruyette and Woods, is 30.3% for Bank of America, 29.8% for Capital One, 27.9% for Discover, and 27.3% for Citigroup. The companies ranked by market share in private label cards are GEneral Electric 39.2% and Citigroup 21.7%. All these companies that have turned risky customers into cash cows with hefty fees and interest rates will see much of this disappear with the President's new law banning some of the practices of these companies that hurt consumers. Most of the credit card industry has operated without some of the basic consumer protections one would expect in a highly educated and literate society with democratic governance. Even retailers like Target depend on this for profits. Target which has its own credit card operation earned $355 million in credit finance charges and $87 million in late fees and other revenue in the last fiscal quarter.

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Ghosn of Renault-Nissan used to be a skeptic about electric cars. Now he is on board. Nissan plans to sell an electric car in the US and Japn by 2010. It will be only hundreds of vehicles at first so it will take more time to take it to mass market, but the goal is to go for mass market. By 2012 Nissan will plan for a lineup of electric vehicles, so it will extend beyond small cars to small minivans and small commercial vehicles and small crossovers. 100% electric cars also are described as zero emission vehicles. But Nissan won't be the only company doing this. Mercedes is moving "very fast" in the direction of emission free vehicles, see the the interview with Daimler's Zetsche. Mitsubishi Motors and Fuji Heavy Industries are testing versions of electric cars. And GM plans to introduce the Chevy Volt in 2010. Toyota plans to have a plug in hybrid about this time. Mercedes will be the first to bring a lithium oin battery in its S400 coming out later this year which will be a hybrid. It is the cooling of lithium ion batteries that has been a major hurdle to development of electric cars and Daimler's Zetsche says they have solved this problem, have 24 patents, and developed a cooling system that works inside the car. Nissan has an electric car project that it is working on with California based Project better Place to produce electric cars for the Israeli and Danish markets. Ghosn has grasped the idea that the market is signalling a major and irreversible change towards smaller emissions and regulators are way behind on this curve. He says that if one is to sensibly participate in the growth of emerging markets which Nissan is doing in North Africa and India and Eastern Europe then one has to think in terms of sustainability and lower emissions, as putting tens of millions of more cars on the road around the world can damage the environment. And the only way this can be done to meet the aspirations of people in emerging markets is to lower emissions and to set this as the overriding goal. One gets the same sense from the Germans, see Zetsche, Daimler....

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IEA Director Fatih Birol says conservation of energy plans should be undertaken by all nations. He says Gulf countries and Saudi oil output will not be the same even when the war ends and the shipping lanes in the Hormuz Straits will not be handling the volumes of 100 ships that passed through the sea channel before the Iran War. Yet he says the best solution is for opening the Straits of Hormuz. This raises some serious questions about depending on the Straits of Hormuz and the Persian Gulf for oil supplies in 2027 and beyond. Can conservation, new sources of oil, acceleration of renewable energy use and electric car technologies lead to making the Middle East oil supplies becoming redundant, doing without this supply or turning it into a marginal source which would lower oil prices even further to the $50 level? Energy use decline for the same or higher GDP levels have potential in the US, China and India. Japan and Germany have cut energy use by about 50% in Japan and 35% in Germany with slightly higher Real GDP levels than 1996 in Japan and a 50% increase in Germany over a 30 year period( using 2015 as base year).  Major renewable energy gains have been made in the last 10 years with solar and wind technologies and electric car technologies. Much of the gains in electric car technologies lies ahead and this would cut crude oil significantly for cars and trucks which makes up 60-70% of oil use. Add to this conservation technologies. Other sources of oil can be found. And Venezuelan, Alaskan oil can be ramped up to replace volatile sources from the Middle East.  ...

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Production cuts of 1.2 million cars because of the chip crisis in the US. Shortages of computer chips for everything from safety systems to brakes and engines is leading to half the normal number of cars in dealer lots and the lowest level in decades according to this report. The US government is shifting to domestic chip production because of unreliable supplies from overseas factories.

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Tata has a couple of things going for it to make a car at a price under $2500- a different vision behind it and a longer term idea of the market and its opportunities for Tata Motors. This is a personal vision of Ratan Tata, the last in the series of Tata family members who have run a company that was at the leading edge of industrialization in India since British times in the closing years of the 19th century. He sees this as a way to bring a car that is affordable to millions of Indians, the average Indian, just as his father and great grand father were pioneers in India's early steps towards industrialization. This also will serve another purpose. It will provide momentum to India's manufacturing base by putting India's auto industry on its way to sell cars by the millions in the next ten years. The cost was a challenge to Indian engineers ingenuity. It would help them develop something from scratch from a clean slate, and as he hoped reinvent the car if possible. The cost also was doable in India because of the wages paid to Indian engineers and workers are different. The entire cost structure with suppliers like Bosch providing the engine also and internet purchases of parts coming under a completely different way of doing business, again a reinvent of things. And the skimping on a lot of basics like a radio is possible in the Indian context where the inital target market is the scooter family of which in India there are millions. People who would simply be waiting for such a bare bones car, not see it as such because it is a great advance over a scooter even in terms of safety. What most people who have never been to India would not be able to grasp is that a whole family of four can be seen riding on a scooter or motorbike in India on weekends in Indian urban areas. Tata's idea of the market potential is the way it can ride the next stages of increasing incomes in India. Once it has come up with this car it can come up with enhanced versions with an airconditioning and radio and so on, and still price it way below competitors with Tata's quality and brand name and innovative design. As long as Tata can sell all the cars it makes it can expand production rapidly. Tata's costs for engineering a top selling model may be only 20% of the $350 million it costs western companies, according to Alix Partners, with savings of $300 to $1000 per car right there. Labor costs are about $1.20 per hour in India, less than what auto workers make in China, this provides more cost savings. Tata plans to supply kits to dealers who will do the final assembly in small workshops. This distribution strategy will save Tata another chunk of costs, as about 20% of the car's cost is in distribution in the USA. ...

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A large number of utility companies ( most of the big companies like Duke, AEP, Consolidated Edison, DTE, Edison, PG&E and so on) in the USA are working with General Motors to come up with the whole system for putting electric cars on the road and to work out all the issues relating to electricity recharging of the batteries in the cars. Even though coal is used to generate this electricity it reduces overall emissions as the electric plants burn coal with lower emisssions than the internal combustion engine burns gasoline. Charging the cars at night might be attractive as the utilities might find that this is more efficient for them as they may be able to increase production at power plants with extra capacity.

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Chief of TechMet a company in mineral resource development says that it will take years to dislodge China's dominance in rare metals mining and development for metals critical to technologies in car batteries, wind turbines, cellphones. This includes nickel and cobalt for car batteries.Last week president Trump signed an executive order declaring a national emergency and authorizing use of the Defense Production Act to speed development of mines. The U.S. imports 80% of its rare earth elements from China, with further supply coming indirectly from the country. For 14 of 35 critical types of minerals the U.S. has no domestic production. Gallium for light emitting diodes in cell phones is one of these metals. Half of Barite a metal used in hydraulic fracturing for shale oil is imported from China. To get some idea of the neglect in U.S.policy in these area under three administrations, the U.S. in the 1980's was the largest producer of rare earth metals and the technology to process them. Today there is only one mine the Mountain Pass mine in California, and no processing plants. It takes about 10 years to develop a mine. Just as in health care products essential to tackle the virus the U.S has found its manufacturing and technology base left in woeful shape after manufacturing and mining were neglected in a failed policy. Under the guise of globalization corporations transferred essential manufacturing from the U.S. and Europe to China, without understanding the importance these products played in the life of countries, and governments neglected to help local manufacturers and mining companies. Governments play a critical role as China has done by providing loans and grants to develop the national industrial base. Tariffs and quotas are also used to promote local development of the manufacturing base and mining base. Another factor is that investors are more able to invest in these companies when the government take some of the risk with its help and active support. With the Trump executive order comes a new awareness in Canada, Australia, and European Union which are now taking active steps to nurture and develop the local resources. ...