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Joydeep Gupta, director for South Asia at North Pole, environmental news site, says 2050 is important but even more important is what India does now. This is why what Modi promised at COP26 Glasgow for 2030 matters- achieving 500 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity, improvements of 45% in reducing carbon intensity, and cutting carbon emissions by 1 billion tons. Here Gupta looks at what India will be doing, the obstacles and ways of achieving these goals.

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The authors, Becker, Davis and Murphy, are from the University of Chicago. They point out that the uncertainty created by the Obama administration's programs including healthcare and social investments in education, energy conservation, and the desire to reduce carbon emissions, all tend to slow business expansion and investments to create jobs by putting additional costs on business. The expanding federal deficit and national debt also create additional uncertainty. Their point is that it was a mistake to start making major changes to transform the U.S. economy at this time, and that it would have been wiser to do these changes after the economy had recovered completely from the crisis. All efforts they say should have been concentrated on establishing conditions for a strong recovery. When combined with the lack of regulatory reforms to fix problems left behind from the crisis, and other failures, serious questions arise about how things will turn out in coming years. See Krugman- The Feeling of 1937, where Krugman takes this up from another angle, again with concerns about the future....

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Deutsche Bank's image takes a hit in a criminal investigation of alleged tax fraud at Deutsche Bank involving cross border trading of carbon emissions certificates by traders. Co-CEO Jurgen Fitschen called the Governor of Hesse to protest a raid by 500 German police officers and investigators of the headquarters of Deutsche Bank in Frankfurt. The officers arrested some executives and confiscated data. Fitschen and co-CEO Jain were in a supervisory role for the trading and not directly involved. Fitschen signed a tax declaration that is part of the case. Over 20 Deutsche Bank executives are under investigation in the case. Because Fitschen was also being examined in the case this is being viewed in Germany as placing himself ''above the law," by interfering in a criminal investigation. Christopher Frank, head of the German Association of Judges, a senior prosecutor in Freiburg, said in an interview: "Its disturbing that a bank executive believes he can influence the independence of the judiciary through a phone call...This shows a fundamental misunderstanding of the principle of separation of powers."...

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The climate change bill that passed the House 219 to 212. When the program begins in 2012 the estimated prie of apermit to emit aton of carbon dioxide will be about $13. This is projected to rise steadily as emission limits come down, but there is aprovision to prevent a surge in costs. In the early years of the program amajority of permits will be given out free to keep costs down. The Congressional Budget Office estimate is that an average American household will pay $175 ayear more in energy costs by 2020 as aresult of this bill, while the poorst households will recveive a rebate to lower their energy costs by $40. WHile the bill has been watered down form its original, the fact remains that this is the first climate change bill America has passed in decades. It is welcomed by Chancellor Merkel and the Germans who want to see the USA as akey negotiator in future talk on global warming.

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Cement is a basic product needed for construction in developing countries like China and India and Brazil and the former Soviet Union. It accounts for 5% of carbon dioxide emissions worldwide.

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Entergy is one of the largest energy companies. Its CEO for nine years, Wayne Leonard, talks to Joseph Rago of the Wall Street Journal. Its the No.2 generator of nuclear power in the USA, and uses coal for only 7% of its energy. He has made his name in nuclear energy, and here he talks about the government's cap and trade program and nuclear energy. He points to today's technology as far superior to the technology that was used in the Failed Three Mile plant, that put back nuclear energy plants in the USA for decades. He believes that price signals are needed for CO2, and the cap and trade program helps to do this, so he supports the cap and trade program. He admits that self interest colors perception of Entergy, compared to coal using utility producers like Duke Energy and American Electric Power. With coal only 7% in its portfolio of plants, and big in nuclear energy, it stands to gains from a cap and trade program, whereby Congress will set a ceiling on emissions, then allows businesses to sell any of its extra allowances that stand for the right to make emissions. And in doing so creating the largest commodity market, in carbon backed securiites. He and the government agree on the point that the allowances should be auctioned off, rather than given away as the companies with many coal plants believe. And the billions in new revenue from these allowances would be returned to the public. He understands that the view of companies like Duke and AEP, that use coal and would have to increase rates, and face the anger of ratepayers as they pay more for the allowances. He also thinks the bill should be written with a fine pen, so that if Congress mandates 20% of energy come from renewables. That it should specify replacing coal not natural gas as what this replaces, to get rid of the most polluting sources. He points to the real need for looking at things globally, as doing things locally, even to show responsible leadership in the world community, can lead to no progress in the global picture. The reason is that China is going ahead with the rapid construction of conventional coal plants. It has surpassed USA coal capacity, and is on track to double it sometime in the next decade. If the USA closed down every single coal plant, and all the time new coal plants are going up in China and India, then we would have ruined our economy, and it was'nt making much difference globally. And he says, if we just say lets lead and people will follow us, "its silly", because China isn't going to follow us, especially when they have $2 trillion invested in their coal plants, and they still aren't feeding feeding all their people. So how to deal with this? Develop the new technology for carbon capture for existing conventional coal plants, and help the Chinese with retrofit technology to curb emissions in a realistic manner. At this time most current funding is devoted to technology for second generation systems, that are still 10-20 years away....

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Damian Paletta of the Washington Post says that credit goes to Gary Cohn a former Goldman Sachs president, and head of the president's National Economic Council for the way he has quietly built up a group of leading experts on major initiatives of the Trump administration such as tax reform, infrastructure plans. Compared to the infighting and other problems in the first 100 days of the Trump presidency, Cohn is credited with building a core of ideas and experts that bring Trump more to the centre and with the prospect of winning Democratic party support. He has helped shift the president to set up a more balanced approach, less confrontational with China and not calling China a currency manipulator, getting support for the Export Import Bank, and more receptive to the Federal Reserve led by Janet Yellen. This report says an alliance of moderates is centering around Adviser Jared Kushner, Cohn, and in other reports Tillerson in foreign affairs is seen as being part of this group. On NAFTA the president has moved to a less confrontational approach with Mexico, which has helped the Mexican peso recover and improved prospects for the Mexican economy.  On infrastructure new ideas to find financing are needed and a plan to tax carbon emissions is intended to draw Democratic support as well as provide some of the funding. About $200 billion in taxpayer money and $800 billion from private investors is being discussed at the National Economic Council. This report says Cohn suffered from dyslexia in childhood, graduated from American University, and joined Goldman Sachs in an unconventional way. He shares a passion for deal making with president Trump, yet at the same time values the views of experts he has brought to formulate concrete plans for the way ahead. About 25 experts with extensive experience in government helped put together new tax changes, infrastructure plans, and international trade deal plans. His predecessor at the NEC, Gene Sperling, gives him credit for quietly pulling together the experts and doing the planning that the Trump administration now depends on. ...

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The Guardian points out in this editorial that giving subsidies for 2 pound bus fares is money well spent as it both helps people during a cost of living crisis and helps reduce carbon emissions. Germany has done exactly that for its Deutsche Bahn rail transportation system across the country with its discounted plan for travel in the summer that was later extended.

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European countries are focussing on the environmental damage and emissions of biofuels generation, and will not subsidize biofuels that cannot show sustainability or prove that they are produced without causing some environmental damage. Germany has canceled tax exemptions for biodiesel at the pump and is mandating that only biodiels produced meeting sustainability criteria will count towards the national quota.The annual target of biofuels making 5.75% of transportation fuel in Germany. The European Union will require restrictions on imports of biofuels that are produced in an environmentally harmful manner. Europe rushed into the push to produce biofuels without thinking of these issues. In 2007 Europe paid farmers 45 euros per hectare or $27 per acre for any biofuel produced. Note that corn ethanol made in the USA does not meet this standard as its carbon dioxide reduction is 10-20% from the level of gasoli, neaccording to one German NGO. Quebec has discontinued the building of cornbased ethanol plants. The feeling is growing that corn is a less efficient source of biofuels because it requires a lot of processing and the environmental net benefits are small. It is also seen that the rush to corn ethanol in US may be overdone and pushed by politicians trying to help farmers more than the environment....

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The new EPA rules for auto emission standards were setup under the Obama administration in 2012. The rules are a major part of the effort to meet the challenge of pollution and clean air. The Trump administration and EPA chief Scott Pruitt plan to reverse the higher standards. The new standards which had the support of automakers when enacted require that average fuel economy be doubled to about 54.5 miles per gallon by 2025. This would cut oil use by 12 billion barrels over the lifetime of the cars and reduce carbon dioxide pollution by about 6 billion tons.  The EPA under president Trump does not say how much the standards will be rolled back. This also leads to one more tension between California and the Trump administration. California plans to vigorously oppose the rollback. Under the Clean Air Act of 1970 California has historically made its own rules and was followed by 12 other states making up one third of the car market in the U.S. If the Trump administration is able to to this it would create two markets for automobiles in the U.S. which is not in the interest of automakers who are having second thoughts about the change. Amazingly a suburban Virginia Chevy dealership has vigorously opposed being used as the location for the EPA under the Trump administration making an announcement on this issue. Chevy dealerships are saying the Trump administration does not have the facts, that the auto industry has done very well in the last 4-5 years. Chevrolet and GM do not want to be associated with the politics on this issue. California has historically acted as a pioneer in automobile standards with the rest of the nation following. The Trump administration move would be an effort to break this precedent.  ...

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The Environmental Protection Agency moved to assume authority over 14,000 coal burning plants, refineries and industrial complexes that emit more than 25,000 tons ( or emissions from burning 131 railcars) of of greenhouse gas emisssions, and are the source of 70% of the U.S.'s greenhouse gas emissions. The bill exempts the smaller facilities, "every cow and Dunkin Donuts," as Lisa Jackson EPA administrator put it. It exempts millions of other sources like bakeries, dry cleaners and hospitals, and focusses on the 400 largest facilities that do most of the environmental damage. These facilities will be required to obtain construction permits and prove that the best available technology has been applied. Lisa Jackson said we are not going to go ahead with business as usual, and it will give President Obama something to show at the Copenhagen talks. Senators Kerry and Boxer are introducing legislation that will be fought by the power plants, and this move by the EPA will be challenged by the power companies....

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British Firms back up the Stern Review a study commissioned by the British government by joining together on carborn emissions reduction. The 18 top companies in Britian backing up the Stern Review include Tesco, BP and BT employ 2 million people and have $2 trillion in revenue. What the Stern Review pointed out is that investing 1% of GNP now will save costs worth 20% or more of GNP in future years. Heres how- the companies will develop a standard on how companies regularly report emissions, will invest in technology and emissions saving projects, and will reduce emissions froim cars and offices.

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The Economist's view is that trade and currency tensions are too high to result in an accord along the lines of the 1985 Plaza Accord. There may be a general underestimation of how strongly the American public feels about trade and jobs issues, and the currency issues that are intertwined with trade issues. This includes the Economist. See the 2010 survey of American public opinion (Murray, Belkin, WSJ, Oct 2, 2010, Americans Sour on Trade), which shows that better educated and higher income professionals are also shifting to firm opinions on trade that impacts jobs in the U.S. Also see Roubini's recent analysis (interview with Peter Stein, WSJ, 10/2/2010, Yen Revaluation for China's Own Sake), on why it is imperative in China's own interest to move forward with a currency revaluation. Economist Robert Gordon of Northwestern University (Peter Coy, Business Week, 9/30/2010, Why One Economist Predicts Slow US Economic Growth), recently pointed out that his models show a significant slowing down of the U.S. economy over the next two decades, the slowest growth since the Presidency of George Washington. This means growth slowing down to 1.5% in the period 2007-2027, from 1.93% in the prior three decades, which he says leaves less money for everything from tackling carbon emissions to infrastructure needs. ...

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The European Commission responds to the VW emissions scandal with on the road testing using portable devices approved by the European parliament in Feb. 2016.

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The Supreme Court ruling on EPA mercury regulations gives smaller plants with coal fired plants more leeway in installing scrubbers. Large companies have already committed to installing scrubbers for coal fired plants. Regulations are only one reason for the shift to natural gas from coal. Lower prices of natural gas and increasing supplies are a major reason. The U.S. will reduce dependence on coal for energy from 39% to 36% in 2015, with natural gas increasing from 27% to 31%, and renewable solar wind energy making up about 13%, according to EIA.

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In a fast changing energy environment with upcoming COP26 summit in Glasgow and shift away from fossil fuels, Exxon is considering dropping a $30 billion LNG project in Mozambique and multibillion dollar project in Vietnam. Exxon has a remade Board with 3 new directors chosen by an activist investor and 2 other new directors. It takes years for such projects to generate energy supplies and years more to be profitable. Exxon Board members are also facing pressure from investors to restrain fossil fuel investment to limit carbon emissions and return more cash to shareholders.

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Northwestern University's Robert Gordon sees growth in the US economy dropping from 1.93 %- that it achieved in the period 1972-2007- to 1.5% from 2007 to 2027. At that rate of growth GDP per capita would increase by 35% in the next twenty years, compared to the 62% increase in the previous period. He says better educated workers would be needed to increase the growth rate. And he discounts the impact of the internet revolution as it has no magic quality, and he describes the present transformation technologically as a mere shift to smaller devices that is not changing productivity. He does not see another technological revolution like the internet boom. The coming retirement of baby boomers increases the number of retired people that wage earners would have to support, and there is no evidence of education levels increasing for the remaining workers. What this means is that it will be more difficult to fix large problems from carbon emission, energy to infrastructure improvement. Gordon arrived at these numbers by combining research on educational attainment, technological change, and workforce demographics for the USA, and running this data through models. Gordon has examined data going back to 1891 for the USA. This shows that the next twenty years will be the slowest growth in the nation's history, since George Washington assumed the Presidency....