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This is an interview with Columbia University economic historian Adam Tooze about the international trade and economic issues brought about by globalization. The rapid emergence of China in manufacturing and overcapacity in steel has led to action on steel tariffs by president Trump. Tooze is typical of opinion that sees action by Trump not as limited action to level the playing field  as proposed by Trade Representative for the U.S., Robert Lighthizer, but as reckless move on trade.  Lyrarc.com shows articles from the WSJ and NYT showing how opinion got to this point in the U.S., on Robert Lighthizer's views that the U.S. was not facing a level playing field, and  on how trade has hurt communities across the U.S. a long distance away from Silicon Valley. President Trump's views reflect a different perspective that says the U.S. has to balance the favorable situation obtained by China and the European Union through moves of its own to protect U.S. interests. Political commentary that the U.S. was starting a trade war is not supported by the facts showing China's response as muted and a willingness by China to negotiate a balanced trading relationship as its trade surplus with the U.S. continues to grow. The trade surplus is so large that the Trump moves do not tell the real story. They are likely to be overshadowed by the increasing value of the U.S. dollar leading to a continued favorable situation for Chinese exports and a larger trade surplus in 2018, regardless of Mr. Trump's action.  Trump's moves are more significant in other areas- limiting China's access to advanced technologies, with the European Union also taking the same action. This is now the new field of competition for the major world economies. ...

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June unemployment numbers will jump say experts at IHS Insight as GM and Chrysler downsize even more to become smaller companies with even less market share. This will reflect closing Pontiac and sale or closing of the other GM brands Saturn, Saab, and Hummer. It will reflect closing of more dealerships of GM and Chrysler. THis might be offset by a pickup in sales if something like the European trading clunkers for new cars program takes off in the USA. But with the US customers more in debt and with rising job losses, the pattern may be different in the US. It may only offer a small boost in sales. Manufacturing still matters in a recovery. In 1980 manufacturing was 20% of America's output, now it is 11.5% says Mark Zandl of Moody's Economy.com. Manufacturing, he says, has a bigger impact than its size suggests, because it responds quickly. As sales resume workers are called back to their jobs. The sharp V shaped recoveries in the early 80's reflected the rapid response of manufacturing. After the 1980's both the declines and the recoveries were shallow in 1990-1991 and 2001. Now with GM and Chrysler shrinking further under the government plan to fix these companies, and taking the supplier impact, the rebound leg of the V is missing. The kick from the Big Three and their suppliers is missing, says Nigel Gault of IHS Insight. Of the 5.7 million jobs lost from Jan 2008 to June 2009, 1.6 million were in manufacturing and 289,000 were in motor vehicles, split almost evenly between assemblers and supplier networks....

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A bill in the U.S. Senate in October 2011, which has bipartisan support, would push for China to correct an unfair trade advantage from keeping the value of the yuan low. The bill requires retaliatory tariffs for countries that have "misaligned" currency. This makes it possible for the U.S. Treasury Department to take action even if it finds no currency manipulation by China. This is a new approach as the U.S. Congress struggles to restore a level playing field in international trade.

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The U.S. Senate voted 63 to 35 passing legislation that forces the U.S. government to seek tariffs and other action against countries with "misaligned" currencies."

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Barry Posen, Director of M.I.T.'s Security Studies Program looks at U.S. options as it confronts North Korea over missile tests. He says a conventional attack with bombers could invite a conventional attack from North Korea. A nuclear attack by the U.S. is seen only in the context of an impending attack from North Korea. Very little warning would be given to South Korea resulting in large casualties, says Posen.

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The influence of business executives who helped shape president Trump's views on Mexico, China, Export Import Bank, and other issues is covered by Stokols and Bender of WSJ. On Mexico the departure of Mike Flynn helped moderate views, Wilbur Ross, the Commerce Secretary also provided a moderating influence. The plans are now to change NAFTA but not entirely redo the agreement. On the Export Import Bank the views of Boeing CEO Muilenburg, who explained to Trump why the Bank supported U.S. exports and how other countries had similar banks, led to the president filling the bank vacancies. On China the influence of NEC head, Gary Cohn, former president of Goldman Sachs, and other business executives, led to a less confrontational position. The president once called NATO obsolete during the campaign but he met this week with NATO secretary general Stoltenberg this week and expressed strong support for NATO after rising tensions with Russia.

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Prof. Neera Chandhoke of Delhi University points out that Jawaharlal Nehru and other leaders of the Congress made great contributions for India. First in the freedom movement and then in helping India take the first steps to modernization. During the early years India needed the leadership of Nehru and Gandhi to establish a functioning democracy. Even though the focus has shifted to the economy and the next steps in modernizing the economy, the contribution of the early years should not be forgotten, as it laid the basis for what happened later.

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China's current account surplus has declined to 2.8% of GDP for 2011 from about 10% in 2007, and will be around 2.3% of GDP in 2012, according to IMF estimates. The U.S. current account deficit is down to 3.1% of GDP from 5.1%. By controlling the exchange rate China was able to keep the competitiveness of its exports, resulting in a five fold increase in exports from 2000 to 2010, according to the IMF. The decline could be temporary say experts, as the the recession in Europe and the U.S. resulted in slowing exports, with its infrastructure buildup sucking in imports of machinery and other goods from the western countries at an accelerated pace with its 2009 stimulus measures. Another reason is that in the last decade China has developed its own high tech and other companies which will now increase exports. IMF forecasts show a pickup in China's trade surplus to 4.25% by 2017. This could be lower if the renminbi is allowed to appreciate. Estimates of appreciation of the renminbi are 8 percent in nominal terms since June 2010 against the dollar. Including inflation, which is higher in China, the renminbi has appreciated by 13% since June 2010. ...

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That the Tibet issue and suppression of Tibetans takes centre stage in the Taiwan election with both Ma and Hsieh candidates of the Nationalist party and the Progressive Democratic party both denouncing Tibetan suppression shows how far the Tibetan issue can change things around the world. What was once taken for granted that both candidates favored better relations with China is now in question. Hsieh especially has taken part in candlelight vigils for Tibet and a huge pro Tibet rally is being organized by his running mate. And Ma is backing off from his China position in the face of shifting opinion in Taiwan to the suppression in Tibet.

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Problems Russia faces in gaining entry into the WTO. This includes high import tariffs in Russia, arbitrary interpretation of rules, the customs union with Belarus and Kazakhstan, and corruption. Russia is the only major economy that is not part of the WTO. China was admitted in 2001. The WTO rules limit import tariffs and provides a legal system of dispute resolution for trade disputes. According to Business Europe, Russia increased tariffs for a range of factory products after the 2008 crisis. These tariffs alone cost EU companies $820 million a year. Russia's deputy prime minister Igor Shuvalov, says that without WTO access modernization and innovation for Russia will be very difficult. Companies like Boeing would be big winners with WTO entry for Russia. Tariffs on wide-body aircraft would then drop from 20% to 7.5%, and Russia expects to buy 1,000 new commercial aircraft in the next 20 years.

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Max Fisher of the NYT points out the unique approach taken by Canada in the U.S.-Canada relationship - to cultivate a grassroots network of Americans in legislatures, business, and at different levels of government. This has enabled the Trudeau government to build a relationship with president Trump, and at the same time have relationships at different levels of government and with business in the U.S. to tackle issues where the Trump administration has acted in ways unfavorable for Canada. Provincial governments in Ontario and Quebec lobbied against a New York state government provision for Buying American on state contracts worth over $100,000. By emphasizing the $10 billion in exports from New York to Ontario this lobbying persuaded the New York legislature to cancel the provision. Premier Trudeau's popularity helps and the proximity to the U.S. means Canadians can visit quickly and understand the U.S. as a close neighbor. Still Premier Kathleen Wynne of Ontario says Canadian businesses are nervous about the uncertainty from the Trump administration.   ...

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Prof. Jeffrey Wasserstrom of UC Irvine reviews Henry Paulson's "Dealing With China." Paulson was head of Goldman Sachs investment bank and Secretary of the Treasury 2006-2009, the period of the global financial crisis. He made 70 visits to China since his days at Goldman Sachs and calls Chinese leaders Jiang Zemin and Jinping "old friends." He established the Strategic Economic Dialogue in the Bush administration for dialogue on economic issues with China, and setup the Paulson Institute at the University of Chicago to focus on China-U.S. relations. One of Paulson's points is that China's financial system faces a day of reckoning, with large losses and many restructurings. Wasserstrom's review looks at Paulson's view of dealing with China and points to a sense that it needs updating because by the time the book is published a lot has changed with the new Jinping administration. The new administration in China is more assertive in foreign affairs, and less tolerant of both the corruption that became part of the Chinese capitalist development inside a state run one party system, and of the voices for more openness. It also has placed tight controls on the Internet. Jinping sees a constructive role for the Communist party in the future as China makes economic reforms away from state run enterprises, and is working to strengthen the party through discipline and anti-corruption initiative. The reckoning Paulson mentions, Krugman and other experts have described in other language- not as a reckoning but that China was no exception and would face the same problems that the U.S. and the eurozone faced since 2008 from financial excesses. In this sense Paulson's views and interactions with the Chinese leadership may represent another era, a period of exuberance when some of these financial excesses were being built up. Today's economic team of Jinping and Li Keqiang is more focussed on making sure the transition through a economic crisis is managed carefully, keeping in mind the risks for China considering its history, and the situation where China is still a "middle income country" with aspirations for further development to improve incomes and living standards. Their view is that tight control is needed as China makes this transition to a less state enterprise dependent, and more consumer economy, so that there is no loss of the gains made so far. A different set of skills and deft management of the economy is needed, making Paulson's views from another era less relevant. External influences such as managing the complex China-Japan relationship as both countries become more assertive are creating another dynamic in Asia, which Chinese leaders may see as requiring careful management, making Paulson's experience less relevant for a new period with new challenges. For the U.S. the economic cooperation with China now occurs with an added political dimension. Of concern for the tight control, seen as not forward looking and not bringing more constructive voices into the system, and the new complexities of carefully managing the changing U.S.-China-Japan relationship in Asia. ...

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The Labor Department's rate of labor underutilization is 14.8% of thepotential workforce, much higher than the 8.1% unemployment rate. Which means that a lot of workers are not able to make the fullest use of their skills. If unemployment stays high for a very long period some workers lose their skills and become less employable. THat could leave the floor for unemployment at amuch higher level. Something like this is happening now and stay with us as the unemployment rate grows and the underutilization of labor rate with it. Physiscists call it "hysteresis"., a kind of laggard impact of some sustained force. An example is if you squeeze a nerf ball for so long that it doesn't bounce back when you release it. Higher underutilization of labor which could hit 20% by 2010 at the rate at which job losses are ocurring of half a million a month, would mean pressure on wages and fears of deflation, lower tax revenues and fears of persistent deficits, less cash to invest and companies having less capital to invest leading to lower earnings. And falling behind the curve is what Krugman fears could be happening now, even with the large stimulus and budget of the new President, because of a series of problems ocurring at the same time and reinforcing each other. And the efforts of the government still not large or effective to meet the scale of the challenge. See the link to this. ...

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Myanmar's economy shows slower growth in the early period of the Suu Kyi administration. Experts say part of the reason is that the administration has slowed investment in petroleum and mining and pushed it in favor of other areas to diversify the economy. The inexperience of the government is also an issue, as Myanmar needs workplace reforms. The IMF says growth should improve to 7.5% after 6.3% growth in 2016. The government is in office for only about 2 years, and this comes after decades of mismanagement and cronyism under military rule. Another problem is that Suu Kyi is considered a micromanager and is only now delegating matters to experts, some from Australia. In a sign of the sluggish foreign investment the two American companies investing in Burma are Coca Cola and a can making company. The initial enthusiasm for investment has waned. 

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China's breakneck growth was enabled by housing construction, and coal in a way that created problems of climate change. Now China's largest housing developers Evergrande and Country Garden together have a staggering $500 billion in debt and in serious financial trouble in or near default. How will China's government respond? It let Evergrande who had defaulted on debt payments build 300,000 apartments last year, just to protect home buyers. Now it's founder Mr. Xu is taken in for questioning and "illegal crimes." Making sure that the apartments on which people made deposits are built would cost another $72 billion, says Nomura. Yet suppliers, painters, builders and brokers are owed another $390 billion, in one estimate. And foreign creditors are getting together for complicated restructurings. Evergrande had entered wealth management promising 8 or 9% returns and has stopped making payments. All this is affecting public confidence in the future and China's growth story. For decades China depended on housing construction for high growth rates. Now the process is unwinding with both in financial difficulties. This NYT report says that after Evergrande's default, Country Garden failed to make a payment on $200 billion in debt last week and has 400,000 apartments that it sold but has not finished building. ...

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Donald Trump, has consistently tried to capitalize on the changing demographics and economic conditions in the country during the primaries by embracing a neglected white working class on issues such as trade, wages and jobs. He now has taken on the issue of law and order. In his acceptance speech Trump once again used a canny ability to sense the public mood, in the summer following the Orlando shootings, the Nice attacks, and the Baton Rouge police shootings, by calling himself "the law and order candidate in this race for the White House." He touched on the police shootings and terrorism by making the centrepiece of his speech- "Our convention occurs at a moment of crisis for our nation. The attacks on our police, and the terrorism in our cities, threaten our way of life."  The speech ended by Trump saying "I am your voice." By embracing the major issues in a way a skilled politician would do using his years of experience on the Apprentice television show with catchy slogans and phrases; long before the other candidates had caught on, and using the language of ordinary people, on trade, wages, jobs, terrorism, Trump has galvanized this portion of voters. He also made an appeal to Bernie Sanders voters. The distance between working class voters and other candidates who feel neglected on issues of wages and jobs, and are also most open to issues of law and order and terrorism, was the story of the Republican primaries. Whether this carries over to the broader electorate- as less than 20% of the eligible voters in the Republican primaries voted to give Trump wins in the primaries- and how well Hillary Clinton has held onto traditionally Democratic white working class voters that Trump is appealing to, will affect the 2016 elections. As this piece in the Guardian points out Trump has it well on touching on all the right buttons for which he has a canny ability, but will the American voters look for more in terms of experience and other factors, and Hillary's own fighting spirit, may affect this unusual election.   ...

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Christopher Wood points to deflationary trends in Europe and the USA. Bank for International Settlements (BIS) data shows European bank exposure to government debt in Portugal, Italy, Ireland, Greece and Spain at $2.8 trillion at the end of 2009, and a rise in the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR), as further signs of negative trends. The property bubble in China and strong action to tighten and use antispeculation measures have already led to transaction volumes in residential real estate falling rapidly. If Beijing reconsiders further appreciation of the yuan, a trade debate with the U.S. may intensify. All this points to increasing risk of a double dip recession.

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Tensions rise in the Korean peninsula after the launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile by North Korea that could reach Alaska. U.S. General Brooks says only "self-restraint, which is a choice, is all that separates armistice from war." The 1953 armistice never really ended the war between the North and the South on the Korean peninsula. The Kim regime in Pyongyang sees its missile systems and nuclear weapons as the only way for it to survive. For the U.S., Japan and North Korea, the situation is getting graver by the year, each year that North Korea develops its missile systems. The U.S. conducted its own military exercize with South Korea off the east coast, firing a number of missiles into the sea. Japan is now considering the Thaad missile defense system for its own defense. That missile defense system was put in place in South Korea by the U.S. in 2016. In a separate analysis David Sanger of the NYT says U.S. options are limited. After the collapse of the Gaddafi regime in Libya which gave up its nuclear weapons capabilities, other regimes see the nuclear weapons as a way to survive, which is why the North Korean regime puts emphasis on its nuclear program. ...