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U.S. companies have decided to wait out the conflict in Libya till a clear picture emerges. Mufson gives a good account of the history of Libya's tumultuous relationships with western oil companies over 3 decades. Nason Saleri, former head of reservoir management at Saudi Aramco, now head of Houston based Quantum Reservoir Impact, says oil companies have decided not to get involved until the situation stabilizes. Oil companies such as ConocoPhillips attended a meeting of the U.S.-Libya Business Council where representatives of the Benghazi based coalition presented. Ali Tarhouni, leading economic policymaker for the Benghazi coalition says oil contracts will be honored. Saleri says western oil companies are preparing for the time when a new government takes charge in Libya after the end of the Ghadafi regime. His view is that once things settle down and a new government is in charge he sees the potential of enhancing the percentage of oil from known reservoirs. The reserves are there in Libya to stabilize production to earlier levels and to increase it says Saleri....

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Analysts fear an oil shock in 2012 similiar to that in 2008. There is similiarity in the situation now and in 2008- as in 2008, the surge in oil prices comes at a time of higher tensions with Iran and shrinking spare capacity. Spare capacity is at 2.5 million barrels a day on average for January and February 2012, according to the Energy Information Administration. This compares with 3.7 millon barrels a day for the same period in 2011. Part of the reason is that global oil demand is increasing in 2012 by 1 million barrels a day, to 89 million barrels a day. Technical and political problems have shutdown another 750,000 barrels a day. The problems begin to kick in during the second half of 2012. The U.S. ban on dealing with the Iranian central bank for oil trades starts in June 2012. According to the International Energy Agency, the EU embargo and U.S. sanctions will take 1 million barrels a day of Iranian crude out of the market. The result will be that demand exceeds supply by the third quarter by 1.1 million barrels a day, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Use of existing reserves in Europe, the U.S. and other countries will make up the gap. The effect will be to put pressure on oil prices. May Brent crude on the ICE Futures Europe exchange was up to $125.81 a barrel, on March 16, 2012, and prices for April delivery were at $107.06 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange....

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One of the favorable factors for Iraq in recent years was the surge in oil production, adding 1 million barrels a day to reach 3.3 million barrels a day. It surged to an average of 3.7 million barrels a day in December 2014 after a deal with the Kurdish region in northern Iraq for an additional 550,000 barrels a day in exchange for Kurds getting a 17% share of federal revenues. This helped Iraq overcome other problems. The drop in oil prices has led to a 40% drop in revenues and the invasion by Islamic State in a loss of some production.The federal budget of $101 billion planned revenues is based on an oil price of $56 and exports of 3.3 million barrels a day, resulting in a $20 billion deficit. It assumes $10 billion in new tax revenues which may be hard to achieve with a lack of strong central government. Experts on Iraq's oil industry say large investments are needed to offset declining oil production from older oil fields in southern Iraq. Oil exports were 2.5 million barrels a day in 2014, and experts say even this will be hard to achieve for 2015. Investments could come from western oil companies, but Iraq and the Kurdistan region are behind in payments to oil companies. Iraq is considering issuing bonds for $10-$15 billion....

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Exxon has cut costs of shale oil production by learning new cost efficient ways of getting the oil out of the rock. Exxon states it has cut costs by 20 to 25% for production in the Bakken from shale, making it possible to invest in shale oil production at much lower prices as the learning continues. This will be a factor for oil prices in future years.

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WIth India's oil imports at four fifths of the country's oil needs, the depreciation of the Indian currency, the rupee, is especially painful. The rupee exchange rate has declined from 55 per dollar at the end of May 2013 to 64 per dollar in August 2013, a 14% decline. India provides full subsidies and this accounts for a large part of the current account deficit. Government cuts in fuel subsidies to reduce the current account deficit are diluted by the depreciation of the rupee, with a fall of one rupee in the exchange rate equal to 4 months of cuts in subsidies, according to Moody's analyst Vikas Halan.

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Saying that these countries had significantly cut imports from Iran, the U.S. government gave exemptions from the sanctions on Iran to 10 European countries and Japan. Exemptions were given to Belgium, Britain, Czech Republic, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland and Spain. This leaves 11 countries facing possible sanctions including China, India and S. Korea, with negotiations underway with these three major importers. The sanctions law passed by the U.S. Congress gives the government room to avoid damage to global oil markets and U.S. allies.

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Oil prices are forecast to remain above $100 a barrel in 2012 because of higher social spending in Saudi Arabia, Iran and other countries after the democracy protests, and the threat of retaliation by Iran in the Straits of Hormuz. Iranian threats of retaliation for increased sanctions has embedded a $10-$20 premium in oil prices say some experts.

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Efforts to increase investment in exploration for oil and natural gas by the Indian government include an increase in the state mandated price of natural gas to bring it closer to world prices.

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Exxon sells a 25% stake in the West Qurna-1 oil field near Basra, Iraq, to Sinopec. And a 10% stake to Pertamina. This field produces 510,000 barrels a day with potential for 3 million barrels a day. Exxon and Shell are heading the $50 billion project. The project is a service contract with the Iraqi government to develop the oil field. After the sale of the stake estimated at about $5 billion for a 10 year contract Exxon retains a 25% stake. Exxon is managing risk in the project after differences with the Iraqi government over its investments in the Kurdistan part of Iraq.

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Prof Richard Thaler of the Booth School of Business at the University of Chicago, sees an acute underestimation of risk as a common element in recurring crises- both the crises of a financial type and the crises like the one in the BP Gulf Oil Spill. Tony Hayward, CEO of BP said that BP had perceived the risk of such a spill as one in a million.

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Libya's Oil and Finance Minister bridges the gap between the tribal factions, regional loyalties, and other divisions within the Transitional Council of Libya and within Libya. He brings a unique background of being expelled in the early 1970's because of his prodemocracy activism at Libyan universities. He studied at Michigan State University for a doctorate and taught at the University of Washington for 26 years. All the time he helped organize the Libyan opposition. His background makes it possible for him to talk to western officials with ease, and his activist attitude and manner has put him quickly at the centre of things in Misrata and Tripoli. He went by fishing boat to Misrata at the height of the siege and was the first of the Transitional Council members to be in Tripoli. He was recently appointed deputy chairman of the Executive Council and chairman of the Supreme Military Council for Tripoli because of earning the confidence of the Council leaders and the ability to be at the centre of the struggles in Libya. He is a direct and plain spoken person and talked to the Journal's Charles Levinson about oil fields and restoring oil supplies. He talks about plans to keep Tripoli as the capital and keep the Transitional National Council in Benghazi so that both regions of the country could play a role. ...

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Senator Schumer calls it a "momentous 24 hours here in the US Congress, a legislative one two punch that you rarely see." Schumer negotiated a major climate change action bill for $369 billion in the Senate, that also covers tax changes to cover costs, and helps cut drug and health care expenses of Americans. The second quarter shows healthy job gains of average 375,000 a month and unemployment at 3.6%. The economy declined by 1.1% but much of this was from a slowdown in home and business construction sectors sensitive to higher interest rates and from higher inventory. Consumer spending increased by 1% during the quarter. The Fed's series of 0.75 percentage points interest rate increases had softened inflation expectations before they get entrenched in the economy. This makes it possible for Democrats to present a message to ordinary Americans that president Biden is getting things done with 2 legislative achievements. A $280 billion bill for investment in the semiconductor industry in the US. And a huge win on climate change with the $269 billion Schumer is negotiating in the US Congress. It is the opposite of what Republicans are saying is Biden's failure to tackle inflation. Appropriately Biden and Schumer are calling this the bill the Inflation Reduction Act of 2022. How did Schumer get this done? After the Ukraine war and EU decision to shut down Russian oil supplies, cut oil and gas use by 15%, and the climate change action inducing fires and floods, there is increasing awareness about climate change action as vital for our future all over the world. This gives more confidence to Democrats to negotiate a temporary continuation of oil and gas, with increased exports of US LNG to Europe. Senator Manchin from an energy producing state of West Virginia was brought over to Schumer's side with this idea. What Biden gets is a 40% reduction of US carbon emissions over 2005 levels, enough to get within reach of the 50% he promised at COP26 in Glasgow. It is a win-win for all sides and for the American people, and shows that patience and hard work, and persistence in the face of adversity can bring results. ...

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Exxon, BP, Eni, Shell, are actively working in Iraq to increase oil production, along with Lukoil, Gazprom, China National Petroleum, China National Offshore Oil Corporation. Foreign companies are attracted to Iraq because of the potential for growing oil production. Iraq produces 3 million barrels a day in 2012. An additional 400,000 barrels a day is planned for 2013. Shell's Iraq country chairman, Hans Nijkamp,says Iraq could eventally produce 6 to 10 million barrels a day by the early part of the next decade. Iraqi government officials have set a target of 10 million barrels a day by 2017, which is overly ambitious because of the many problems that need to be tackled, including building port and pipeline infrastructure, huge water projects to pump saline water into old oil fields, and passing a national oil law. Passing a national oil law means negotiating a deal acceptable to the Kurdish and other regions about sharing oil profits.

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To meet the budget deficit Russia plans to issue $50 billion worth of ruble denominated bonds and privatize $10 billion in state assets every year until 2014. Russia is also changing its policy to attract foreign investment. For the first time since the 1998 financial crisis Russia will turn to international banks and pension funds in the US and Europe to maintain financing for a whole range of activities- from modernizing the military to paying high public sector wages. Russia is planning the sale of a stake in state bank VTB. And shares in oil companies, hydroelectric dams and shipping lines are also expected to go on the market.

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S&P said it will maintain India's credit rating of triple B minus, the lowest investment grade rating, yet it may downgrade it to "junk status" in the next 2 years. S&P said this could happen "if the external position continues to deteriorate, growth prospects diminish, or progress on fiscal reforms remains slow in a weakened political setting. India's growth rate declined to 6.9% in the year ending March 31, 2012, down from 8.4% the prior year. The problem is that India's current account deficit is growing rapidly with the high import bill for energy supplies. The current account deficit is now at 4% of GDP. The trade deficit increased to $185 billion in this fiscal year, up 56% over the prior year. Additional problems are finding ways to finance the deficit with foreign capital, as European banks are pulling back during the current eurozone crisis. Commerce Secretary Rahul Khullar says this could be a big problem. Net foreign capital investment is declining rapidly from $72 billion in February 2012 to $387 million in March, with a net outflow of $27 million in the April 1-25 period. The budget deficit, which has drawn the attention of the RBI, India's central bank, and of S&P, is at 5.9% of GDP for fiscal year ending March 31, 2012. This is larger than the government target of 4.6%. The government has set a deficit target of 5.1% of GDP for the fiscal year ending March 31, 2013....