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Some ideas from Robert Shiller of Yale University who has widely written about bubbles including the stock bubbles and has jointly developed the Shiller-Case index of housing prices. Shiller suggests creating futures contracts tied to home prices. And the thinking goes once there is enough trqding in these futrues contracts people can sell the housing market short-that is bet on afall in house prices- so that there is a restraining effect on housing bubbles developing. But the reviewer thinks that this is debatable because its possible to sell stocks short and yet we have stock market bubbles. Shillers other suggestion is for developing new types of insurance to protect people from a fall in house prices or from a longterm loss of income as a result of jobs becoming obsolete, but its not clear who would pay for this insurance and its cost. Another suggestion is for the government to to give subsidies or tax credits for ordinary people to get unbiased financial advice. This could be a useful suggestion if there are credible and honest sources of such advice and they are identified and made widely available to the general public by the government. A related suggestion is the development of a supplement to the consumer price index that is based on a realistic basket of goods and services that people use that gives people a realistic idea of what is happening so that they do not assume that houses are always a good long term investment and can separate inflation. And Shiller suggests a standard mortgage contract be developed so that people who cannot understand the fine print like most of us especially when its put in by lawyers for mortgage companies can turn to htis contract. This is an excellent suggestion but one wonders why something so obvious has been not already widely available as an alternative to those who cannot figure out all the machinations behind all that small print. The book is titled SubPrime Solution and one wonders whether much more than this is needed to control all the fog and euphoria about housing prices, and all the incentives and pressure in hard selling tactics of most of the large mortgage companies, and all the ethical violations of credit ratings companies who rated mortgage securities and ethical violations of mortgage companies....

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Ausra using Australian David Mills technology and research has come up with soar mirrors that focus the intense heat of the suns rays in desert climates onto water that is directly turned into steam that then runs the turbines that generate electricity. With PG&E for distribution and Vinod Khosla's venture capital investment solar energy for about 10 cents per kilowatthour (kwh) is within reach using Ausra's technology and compettitve with cola based energy. Carbon is also going to be about 20% more expensive with higher environmental costs of coal based energy factored into the price as governments restrict its use. The plan is to go from a initial $47 million investment to a $400 million investment for a 100 megawatt plant. This technology could bring a promising future for solar energy and cut dependence on oil and coal, and help bring down oil prices and spur growth with cheaper and clean energy.

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As deflation takes hold in China, the lessons of US relations with China that were handled by business to maximize profits that caused climate change and destroyed the environment, and caused deindustrialization in the US show the need for a wiser approach on both sides. Consumer prices in China declined 0.8 of percentage point in January over previous year. People in Hong Kong cross the border to shop in city of Shenzen for lower priced goods. These are the first signs of deflation in China. This is the beginning of a repeat of Japan's experience of the last three decades. Rapid growth followed by unsustainable growth after 2000 in China created problems for the environment and climate change because the growth was compressed into a few years and China's size. The experience of Japan's growth in the 1980's was repeated but this time on a scale that reflects China's population of 1.4 billion people compared to 125 million for Japan. The result many American factories unable to compete with lower costs in China closed in 2000-2015 leading to a general decline in towns and communities across the US destroying livelihoods.The effect is magnified as the support services jobs and wages that go with factory jobs magnifies the effect on jobs by a factor of three or four. The result is a situation that did not have to happen this way hurting both the climate and supply chains, hurting both America and China as business interests in both countries made short sighted decisions. As America diversifies from concentration of supply chain in China, into India and Vietnam, the process needs to be such that it benefits both the American and Indian people not be allowed to be left to business alone to determine as happened with China. This is one of the lessons of this period. ...

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Chinese president Xi's determination to make good on the slogan "Housing is for living, not for speculation," by imposing a property tax on homes in 30 cities, is facing resistance within the Communist party and from local governments. Mr Xi hopes to squeeze out the excesses of the adoption of capitalist market systems in China since 2000. China's government opted to get feedback on this idea and the feedback is largely negative forcing the government to scale it back and look at other alternatives such as affordable housing to make home purchases accessible.  Some reasons for the pushback are that it is becoming a social stability issue and risks alienating officials within the ruling party and homeowners. The fact is that 90% of urban Chinese families own their homes and housing related industry makes up about a third of China's output. Also significant is that 80% of China's wealth is tied up in real estate. What could happen is that if housing prices drop in China urban consumers might cut back on spending because they feel poorer. Party officlals advised against introducing property tax in 30 cities. Now it is scaled back to ten cities, and a new law could take till 2025 to introduce property taxes in the whole of China. Cities that are likely to be used for the property tax now are Shanghai, Chongqing, where an annual charge is levied on second homes since 2011. Cities added to the list would be Shenzen, Hangzhou, China has financed much of its industrialization through land sales by the Communist local governments in a country where land ownership was with the national Communist government after the revolution in 1949.  Mr. Xi wrote in Qiushi party journal that "we should actively and steadily promote the legislation and reform of real estate tax, and do a good job in the pilot work." Local communist governments get about one third of their revenues from selling land to property developers, and they are anxious that a tax on real estate would make demand and price for the land they sell to drop drastically. To get some idea of this- the local governments had $1 trillion in revenues last year. ...

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Japan's cabinet approves a change in interpretation for Article 9 of the constitution to permit "collective self-defense." The wording was negotiated with the more pacifist New Komeito party in the coalition government to cover attacks on Japanese allies such as the U.S., but limit it to actions that seriously threaten Japan. Because the Liberal Democratic party of prime minister Abe controls both houses of parliament the change is likely to go through. The U.S. president Obama, Defense Secretary Hagel, and Rear Admiral John Kirby of the U.S. Navy see this as improving security and stability in the region.

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There is a 82% jump of oil at sea in 2025 as China and India stay away from sanctioned oil from Russia Iran. About 1.4 billion barrels or 15% of supply out at sea on tankers by December 2025. When Modi met Putin he offered to continue supply of oil. India says Jamieson Greer in a recent interview with Sarah Burns, is not buying Russian oil and negotiations are ongoing so that a deal with US on dropping tariffs is reached in the very near future. This oil at sea is keeping prices of Brent crude at about $66 in December 2025. DJT is referring to prices down for oil, to gas pump prices in US states having dropped to $1.99 a gallon to show progress in tackling the affordability crisis in the US at a rally in Pennsylvania.

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Trupti Shete of Aurangabad is one of 21 women pilots of 91 who will operate the new Metro 2A and 7 in Mumbai inaugurated by prime minister Modi. She did her bachelors in electrical engineering. For 3 years she struggled to get a job. Building much needed infrastructure means new opportunities for young people in India.

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Indian prime minister Modi calls for saturation level coverage of schemes including GatiShakti, Har Ghar Jal, Svamitva, Direct Benefit Transfer, and others. Also given emphasis in his statement to 18 chief ministers was the importance of sports and sports facilities  for young people, and continually improving the environment for business in the states.

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Fed chairman Powell sees inflation right now in the US as driven by supply chain problems, by the war in Ukraine and its effect on oil prices, and by shifts among American consumers from spending on dining and travel to furniture and goods. An added factor is the tight labor market that affects spending.

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A look at the need for serious attention to personal health, including the risks of obesity and poor health habits that are second biggest risk factor for deaths from coronavirus. Boris Johnson, Britain's prime minister has taken up new health habits, exercize and changed lifestyle, after going through a life changing experience. 

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This 700 kilometre path around Prince Edward Island in Canada done after seeing a similar path along the ocean in northern Spain for the pilgirmage to Santiago de Compostela shows what volunteers can accomplish with a simple idea, some tools and extra time. This can be done in many other parts of the world.

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Saudi Arabia signed a series of agreements with India at the G20 Summit with $100 billion in investments planned including digital, rail, energy  and other connectivity for the IMEC corridor for India through Middle East to Europe. Saudi prince MBS announces the IMEC Corridor and talks about its significance at the G20 Summit.

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Lower prices of European stocks makes them more attractive. Cuts in interest rates by European central banks are another factor in pushing the French stocks CAC index and the German stocks DAX index by 8% and 9% respectively. This compares to the S&P 500 Index for US up by 2.45% by February 7, 2025.

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Profits at international oil companies are lower for a number of reasons. At Exxon the refining margins dropped 27% in 2007 compared to 2006. Cost for drilling, oil rigs and oil personnel are up sharply, and the production sharing agreements for Exxon in West Africa mean that the higher the oil price the less oil Exxon gets. The govenments of oil producing countries are taking a larger share of dollar coming from oil in their countries, and Exxon recently pulled out of Venezuela- the production at Exxon actually declined by 2% and at BP and Royal Dutch Shell by 4%. This decline will continue as the reserve replacement ratios of these oil companies are in a big decline as oil prices go higher. Most of the countries producing oil are renegotaiting their contracts at the first opportunity. Nigeria is about to do this, and even Alberta and the US government are doing this.

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Karl Case, who jointly developed the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Index says there is that downward stickiness thats keeping the housing market fragile. Its basically flat right now, with a lot of inventory waiting to be cleared. And it isn't going to bring this economy out of a recession in the manner it has done in previous recessions.

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The sharp decline in the value of the ruble combined with high interest rates is having a serious impact on Russia's automobile industry. Major foreign manufacturers are cutting production and laying off workers. Foriegn automakers have raised prices by as much as 56%, according to PwC. Avtovaz, majority owned by Renault and Nissan, cut its workforce by 12,000 in 2014 own to current level of 50,000, and an additional 1100 layoffs are planned for 2015. Volvo Trucks and General Motors plan to suspend production later in 2015. The decline is also reflected in sales of consumer appliances and computers. Popular imported notebook computer prices surged by as much as 54% in Jan. 2015 compared to Oct 2014, according to Yandex.

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PM Modi tells parliament in a reply to the president's address yesterday laying out the government's program, that if India operated at the speed of previous governments before 2014 it would take three decades to get to No.3 in the world's economies. Instead India plans to move from the 5th largest economy in the world to No.3 by 2030. He pointed to the investments that the government had made in providing housing, income support, water, on a scale uparalleled in history to bring 250 million people out of poverty. The four pillars of the programs are Nari Shakti women's progress, Yuva Shakti youth progress, Anna Data farmers progress, and strengthening the industrial infrastructure of the country. The prime minister pointed to previous prime ministers having doubts about what India could achieve in the community of nations and compared it to the convictions, the hard work and the single minded determination of the people driving progress today who have no such doubts. ...

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This report in DW.com looks at the problems behind the suspension of all operations at India's Jet Airways.  Jet Airways faced little competition in its early years in the early 1990's and was a success as a full service airline competing with state controlled Air India and Indian Airlines. By 2005 the emergence of low cost carriers operating on thin margins and using a cost efficient model of operation hit Jet Airways hard. It still operated as a full service airline failing to change its model to tackle a cost conscious growing Indian market. The $500 million used to acquire a weak budget airline Air Sahara was a costly move leading to a writeoff of the entire investment and a lost opportunity to adapt Jet Airways to the new cost efficient models roiling the airline industry in Asia.  It is difficult to operate in a environment where a depreciating rupee could add an additional burden from volatile oil prices for cost of fuel to operate. Airlines that operated on razor thin margins such as Indigo and SpiceJet used cost and efficiency parameters as key to flying passengers. Jet Airways failed to make this the priority, continuing to operate as a full service airline. The favorable oil price environment for a brief period in 2015 was not used by the airline to streamline costs.  Add to this the effect of Goods and Services Tax which increased costs by 18%, the effects of demonetisation in reducing passenger ability to buy with cash, and the 5% tax on jet fuel in 2018, creating a financial crisis at Jet Airways.  In the end banks decided not to extend further financing for the airline to operate and looked for a large buyer. ...

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This NYT article on India's Olympics preparations focuses on Neeraj Chopra, in javelin. In actual fact the Indian Olympics efforts is now supported by the government of prime minister Modi with his personal involvement at many levels. Funding is now provided by the government to athletes on a scale and in ways that never happened before. India;s Olympics athletes batch was personally invited to the prime minister's residence and Modi gave apep talk to the athletes including some useful advice from him and from seniro Olympians. One of the pieces of advice from Modi was to concentrate on the task at hand and not get distracted by the many things happening in Paris and the excitement of being at the first Olympics. Modi has also told athletes as he has for India's Space program to the Moon that a loss or a failure to achieve on the first try means you only try harder and learn the discipline required to achieve what you set out to do.

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Lee Kuan Yew, passes away at the age of 91. He led Singapore for 31 years after becoming prime minister in 1959. During this period he helped transform Singapore's economy into a centre for international trade and finance by attracting foreign investment. To do this he developed infrastructure, setup training colleges for the workforce, and provided tax breaks for investors, using Singapore's strategic location on the sea lanes in Asia to best advantage. Singapore became a export hub for Japanese electronics companies, and U.S. companies such as HP and General Electric established regional headquarters there. Strategic investments were made in high tech industries and Singapore's sovereign wealth fund took stakes in companies overseas. He retired in 2011 after opposition parties won 40% of the vote in general elections. His son is now the new prime minister.

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President Trump says TikTok app would be banned in the U.S. after September 15. He said he had talked to Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella and told him Microsoft could buy the apps U.S. operations but if it does so a substantial portion of the price must go to the U.S. Treasury because of the approval of the deal the U.S. is giving after the review. He told Nadella "Look it can't be controlled for security reasons by China- too big,too invasive. Here's the deal, I don't mind whether its Microsoft or somebody else, a big company, a secure company, a very American company buy it."

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French president Hollande's approval ratings dropped to a new low of 12% in a survey by TNS Sofres. In 2013 Hollande's approval ratings dropped to 26% before increasing to 30% after the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attacks in Jan. 2015. The recent terrorist attacks, France's high unemployment rate, his appearance of being indecisive, and the new labor law, have increased Hollande's unpopularity. As a result his colleague in the Socialist Party, prime minister Manuel Valls, now plays an important role in the administration. Middle class workers 35-49 years are the group where Hollande does poorly. Former president Sarkozy's rating never dropped below 30%. Compared to Hollande, Merkel of Germany has an approval rating that is far better at 54% and Obama in the U.S. of 56%. Merkel has achieved this following the differences in Germany over letting in large numbers of immigrants, and Obama after 8 years in office and differences in the Democratic Party on trade and economic policy. Trudeau in Canada has an approval rating of 63%. ...

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This WSJ editorial says the Indian government will have to do more to increase the growth rate. Rising inflationary pressures at 5% for core inflation are still present, with inflation in food prices running higher at 10%. Which may be the reason after a cut of 0.5%, Reserve Bank of India Governor Subbarao stated this would be all the country should expect for some time.

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By May 2015 the Russsian ruble had recovered to 50 to the dollar from the low of 80 to the dollar in 2014. In August 2015 the ruble declined to 70 to the dollar as oil prices dropped below $40 per barrel. GDP growth showed a decline of 4.6% for the economy in the 2nd quarter of 2015. The ruble has lost close to 50% of its value in 2015 compared to the prior year.

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This report in theWSJ says Krysten Sinema received donations from the securities industry of $2.2 million and is opposed to taking out the carried interest provision that is a key source of income for private equity managers. Senator Manchin says it is time to remove carried interest and this would raise $14 billion over a decade. Sinema is in favor of climate change action and favors a tax on carbon emissions.  On corporate minimum tax Sinema has worked with Senator Elizabeth Warren for the tax change that would require a minimum 15% corporate minimum tax to be paid by corporations. On precription drug prices Sinema has worked with Democrats on what the list of drugs should be for Medicare to negotiate drug prices.  As many of these key points have been worked out with Kristen Sinema it now remains to be seen how Democrats get the agreement of Sinema and any other members in Congress to prepare for the passage through Congress of the Climate Change action bill Schumer has negotiated in the Senate. ...