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US expects arrival of the negotiating team from South Korea on April 9, 2025 led by Trade Minister Cheong In-kyo.

DJT says -“Their top TEAM is on a plane heading to the U.S., and things are looking good. We are likewise dealing with many other countries, all of whom want to make a deal with the United States.”

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The pro-democracy protests in Hong Kong take a new turn as the pro-democracy supporters in the Hong Kong legislature adopt a different strategy. After 14 months of protests and unsuccessfully trying to get the Beijing government to allow free elections without the government vetting candidates, the supporters of free elections have adopted the position that it is better not to change the current system till genuine elections can be held. A vote on the Beijing election plans led to a walkout of 34 legislators supporting Beijing's position, and the remaining 36 legislators voting 28 against the Beijing plan and 8 in favor. Under that plan a pro-Beijing committee would have vetted candidates for free elections depriving voters of free choice. The current system may actually offer more room for voters to make a choice as the election is held for chief executive from 1200 business and political leaders, than the Beijing plan of a few candidates vetted by a pro-Beijing committee. This realization led to the historic vote in the legislature and a sense that staying with the status quo was desirable in the current situation....

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Lucy Powell Central Manchester MP elected Labour's Deputy Leader with 54% of the vote in 17% vote turnout. In a sign of the big changes in UK politics and economy Lucy Powell was fired by PM Starmer as leader in the House of Commons as recently as September 2025. Starmer clearly has not led the Labour Party in Britain in ways that would win the confidence of the people of Britain as demonstrated in a recent Wales by-election with Labour having only 11% of the vote after Reform in a previously safe seat.  Lucy Powell says about the lack of listening within Labour to the grassroots people and organization- “I think we often feel like our members and elected representatives are something we need to stand against or not value. They are our strengths. “They connect us to the national conversation. Instead of just telling people what we want them to do, we need to respect, value and include them more, and recognise that debate is not division or dissent, and recognise you have to take people with you and hear from broader voices, not just a narrower group of voices. “They haven’t felt they have been included and connected as they should in recent months, and that’s what often happens when you go into government. “I’m going to really help to do that, to re-engage with the party, and make them feel part of the conversation again. I’ll do that through working with Keir [Starmer], working with government, working right across the party in the leadership roles that I will have.”     ...

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A music enthusiast who played in a rock band, before studying political science at the University of Hanover, and running for parliament, Lars Klingbeil comes from humble roots in Saxony. He led the campaign which brought the SPD Social Democrats to power in 2020 federal elections, and also into an election where the SPD secured only 16% of the vote a new low in 2025. Klingbeil comes as much of a surprise in the way his amiable manner and personality convinced the CDU leader Merz to give him the Finance Ministry as well as the support for major investments in the German economy. This was a goal the SPD failed to accomplish under Scholz with his Finance Minister from the FDP Christian Lindner blocking investment plans for 4 years. The frustration in the SPD is intense and Klingbeil and Merz coming together on borrowing and massive investments in infrastructure and defense is something of a miracle after the Merkel years and the constitutional brake she put in place on spending.  Right from the start the SPD and the CDU realized that this was their last chance as Merz put it to get things right before the far right or some other party took over. Problems that require investment- in crumbling infrastructure and obsolete transportation, lack of investment in IT, problems in childcare and in cost of living could not be postponed. Risks had to be taken, and the 28% of the vote CDU had needed the 17% of the vote of the SPD with the Greens 12%, total 57% of the 2025 vote, to act fast and decisively. ...

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Bonn as location of 6 federal ministries and twin capital of Germany with Berlin is shown here with the history and cultural significance, in this report in Le Monde.

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Nvidia's Head of Engineering, Jonah Alben, is from Schenectady, upstate New York. Here he is credited with exporting the latest US advanced chips to China by reducing their effectiveness. US administrations Biden's and DJT's say this pushes the rules of export controls. It also undermines the US lead in advanced technologies needed for the US to keep the peace in the Pacific and in Europe as new tensions emerge over Taiwan and in Eastern Europe. For years the US egregiously restricted the flow of technologies to democracies such as India and allowed a concentration of semiconductor manufacture in Taiwan, over concentration of manufacturing in China, both of which led to supply chain issues in recent years and pose supply chain issues in the future. Ironically restrictions on technologies sale to India which with 1.4 billon people, and a similar culture in Indonesia forms homogenous culture of 1.7 billion people, is the only place of this size where parliamentary democracy has taken root. With an exercise of legislative assemblies through elections in all Indian states in the 1930's under the British with Mohandas Gandhi's leadership and example. Because of Gandhi and the leaders who preceded him Dadabhai Naoroji and Vivekananda in the 1890's India has older democratic forms than Germany, Japan, Italy, Spain and most of Europe, all of Asia, Latin America and Africa. It also has among the ordinary people a deep respect for Lincon, FDR and his fight to help Gandhi with Sukarno fight the British and Dutch Empires to bring freedom to 1.7 billion people.  ...

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The concerns over far right parties expelling immigrants in states such as Thuringia has caused a wave of protests across Germany including Berlin and other cities in January 2024. It is also impacting the East where anti immigrant sentiment is based. Germany has a shortage of workers in parts of Germany that formed the Federal Republic before reunification- immigrants fill these gaps. The East has not been the success story it was supposed to be because reunification of the Federal Republic and the GDR (Communist East Germany around Leipzig and East Berlin) led to a flight of young people to the western parts for jobs and opportunities. Leading to a mostly older and retired population in the east -leaving it struggling and feeling unwanted. This is the background of the anti immigrant sentiment in the east where there are far fewer immigrants than in the western and central regions. Resentment about being ignored as settled around the immigrant issue in the east even as Germany has benefitted through some of the middle class educated immigrants from Turkey and from Ukraine, and Syria. Similar resentment has taken place in parts of England in the north which led to fear of immigrants being used by Tories party leading to Brexit. In a similar way in France in the north, and in the US with neglect of rural areas and factory communities in the east and midwest. The communities that were left out that have made choices with far right as in Britain have ended up with leaders from immigrant families that have accomplished little or much in the reverse direction for the English people in the north. The leaders of Germany, Britain, the US, the Nordic countries such as Denmark, and gradually in France have learned that it is right to go back to their roots, that they had forgotten where they came from and are now fighting for the dignity of workers (Schulz), standing in picket lines for the autoworkers (Biden), and following the Biden example in the UK (Starmer). With it comes the realization that this started with the Thatcher and Reagan era that created the conditions and culture that were repeatedly embraced by Democrats in the US, Labor in Britain and Social Democrats in Germany alike leading to financial crises and levels of inequality and lack of educational opportunity not seen since the Great Depression. With it by 2024 comes the unwinding of the economics and culture of the Reagan era. Even in China and India the shift is away from that culture as the economies of these countries with half of humanity are shifted to serve a broad base and to include rural, agricultural and other parts of the population. It shows that the educated parts of the population in these countries have the ability to create the conditions that in Lincoln's words are for the people, by the people, of the people, for a brighter future, if only they will try hard enough for their children's and grand children's sake.  ...

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The Bank of International Settlements warns that China's "credit to GDP gap" is 30.1. A figure of 10 normally is considered to be high and needs watching. The People's Daily carried an article presumably by president Xi Jinping warning about the consequences of the debt that had been growing "like a tree in the air." The debt to GDP ratio was at 255% at the end of 2015, and is up 107% since 2008 when the financial crisis led to a huge stimulus that has accelerated debt growth. The corporate debt is at 171% of GDP. The article in the People's Daily warned about reflexive stimulus every time growth slows and said that China cannot any longer "force economic growth by levering up." Cross border liabilities is one area of progress falling by a third to $698 billion, as companies cut debt quickly before the U.S. Federal Reserve raises rates. In the future China is more likely to roll over debt as Japan had done following its debt surge and bad debt with zombie companies, which would in turn lead to lower growth. In the past the government was able to absorb the growing debt because it was not as high as it is today, and the economy was growing rapidly. This is no longer the situation, the reason for alarm at the situation facing China. A spike in interest rates of 250 basis points is cited as one situation which could affect China adversely. ...

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Take a look at the new Notre Dame Cathedral after its restoration. One look from The Times at Notre Dame and the other from Le Monde in an adjoining article.

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Most Congressmen are skeptical of Obama's plan to give the Fed new powers to meet the kind of emergency created by the glovabal economic crisis. Their concern is that the Fed may let the property bubble develop wihtout taking any action, and that the Fed failed as abank regulator. Congressman Ron Paul is co-sponsoring abill that would require Congressional audits of the Fed, which has the support of two thirds of the House.

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The Economist argues that a grand coalition in Japan of the Democratic Party of Japan with the old LDP is a bad idea, because it means going back to the old ways. It is these old ways with a collusion between government and the nuclear industry, says the Economist, that led to the nuclear crisis at Fukushima. Better for the DPJ to go to the country and seek a mandate in new elections.

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Teaching of sessions on financial sophistication to improve American college students skills in managing finances. A pioneering effort at Champlain College in Vermont. The program also trains students to teach the introductory class on credit. A unique but isolated effort in American colleges after the financial crisis of 2008 -and the developments in credit that led to the crisis- which showed the need for better skills in evaluating credit and mortgage options.

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Recovery, says the Economist, is beginning with the rebalancing of America's economy. But this is not inevitable and there is considerable uncertainty in a number of areas. For export led recovery to work emerging markets have to take in more exports, but so far China's stimulus has only boosted domestic investment. There is also uncertainty about the dollar. And the other scenario is that as the government withdraws stimulus the economy may stall.

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The Director General of the National Council of Applied Economic Research in India, Suman Bery, says that of all the countries in the G-20, India is least dependent on export led growth. This is why India gains from a reactivation of the American economy. This view was expressed by Prime Minister Manmohan Singh during President Obama's visit to India. Singh supported the Fed's move to purchase $600 billion in Treasury securities.

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US president DJT outspoken in "The Conversation," with Dasha Burns in The Politico magazine about dangers of "civilizational erasure" for the Europe that people knew in the past as its population changes with uncontrolled migration of the past two decades. DJT comments on a wide range of topics centering on the migration that has changed the life and politics of Europe by 2025 and what the future holds for Europe if it does not preserve it's own identity handed down for generations. Dasha Burns starts with Ukraine- the reports say DJT said this or that about Ukraine but look at the question she put to DJT- Which country is in the stronger negotiating position? Most people know the answer in the winter of 2025 is that Russia is in a much much stronger position in 2025 and a big part of this is it's size 40 million people in Ukraine to 120 million in Russia and oil revenues. Then Burns asks if it is Zelensky who is responsible for the stalled progress what's going on here, all the time giving DJT something that he might take up that would make a headline grabbing interview. She prompts DJT with the starter phrases and pausing for DJT to pick up on it- If Zelensky rejects this deal, do you think Ukraine has lost this war, and the consensus in Europe is to keep supporting Ukraine until they can win this war. And DJT does no more than what he has said many many times about the difficult situation Ukraine is in. Asked if the US may walk away from supporting Ukraine as Trump Jr. has said, and DJT says- "No it isn't correct. But it's not exactly wrong" because they have to play ball. And that is exactly what the European states UK, France, Germany, Italy, have done as they keep talking and modify the original plan devised by Russia and the US. What this says is that the European states are not trying to win this war and at the same time not willing to let this war be lost and the principle of invading another country be seen as acceptable. This is where there are limits to DJT's diplomacy as he attributes the problem to the hatred between the leaders of the two countries. DJT does not say Zelensky would lose the election if one were held in 2026 as he calls for elections.   ...

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This view from the Guardian by David Adler from July 8 2019, gives a third perspective on Greece as it goes into elections. It looks at the turbulent period of 2015-2019 when a new leader Alexis Tsipras promised to lead Greece out of the eurozone crisis by standing up to the ECB and Germany, instead of looking at Greece's own responsibility in letting debt buildup till it overwhelmed Greece. Adler says Syriza was too much on one end blaming Germany for strict conditions on a loan bailout, and after this did not work embracing the loan program in a complete reversal causing much anguish to his own support base when this led to callous implementation.  Mitsotakis is careful to say in his interview with Reuters that the vulnerable have to be protected while also committing to a path of economic growth for Greece. It says 50 billion euros was provided to help people with the cost of living crisis, pensions were increased, minimum wage increased by 20%. It also shows the need to judge by looking at the situation not by labels of centre left or center right, are people better off, will people be better off in the future, are all the bases education, healthcare, public services, infrastructure covered? Is the government honest with the people and doing everything it can after listening to the people? ...

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A dwindling supply of basic smaller models and higher new car prices that peaked with shortages in the supply chain in 2022 are still problems in 2023, says this report in WSJ. Car manufacturers and dealers have not increased the supply of new cars. Higher interest rates and higher prices have led to a situation where car leases can run on an average car to $736 compared to $585 2 years before. This report also says new cars will run you an average of $51,000 up 30% over 2 years. The situation is really bad for buyers compared to the situation before the pandemic, after problems in the supply chain and profit seeking by car dealers. One lower income buyer cited here during the pandemic ended up with a lease of a basic Toyota Corolla for $500 with $236 in insurance payments costing $736 a month that was almost as much as her payment on rent, leaving little in savings or for other expenses. A significant part of inflation today can be attributed to the higher price of cars that constitute basic transportation for the large majority of buyers. Profit seeking behavior of carmakers and car dealers makes the situation that much worse as dealers seek to preserve the high profit margins of the last 2 years, that were the highest in a long time. ...

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Paul Krugman in NYT explains the failure of Silicon Valley Bank. He says the bank invested its money in safe Treasury bonds which fell in value with Fed's policy of sharp increase in interest rates to fight inflation. It presented itself as the bank for people in Silicon valley and succeeded more than it imagined possible leading to these investors putting their money at SVB bank. However Krugman points out SVB bank did not put this money from deposits into startups, it put these deposits in safe US Treasury assets. It is Venture Capital that put its money in the startups at Silicon Valley, then panicked and set in motion a bank run that led to $42 billion withdrawals on one day Thursday March 9. These SVB assets have value says Krugman. Over time the government says Krugman will get much of its money back from these Treasury assets of SVB.  Then why the government rescue by president Biden? A bank run of this type undermines confidence in other regional banks affecting the US banking system in a way that is totally unnecessary when the banking system as a whole is safe. In fact the Fed vice chairwoman Lael Brainard understood and made clear these risks says Krugman, and she now heads Biden's national Economic Council.   ...

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As shown in this Guardian report about clean tap drinking water in China in 2017 pollution of rivers and lakes was so severe that anywhere between half to 80 of water in rivers was not drinkable. This was just before the pandemic. Efforts since 2015 to tackle the problem are still in progress. This is happening as India works on getting 100% of 190 million homes covered for drinking tap water in India by 2024. Out of this 116 million homes or 60% have clean drinking tap water in 2023 under prime minister Modi's  Jal Jeevan Mission (Water for Life) led by IAS's Mr Parmeswaran. India and China started out in 1990 with about the same GDP. China attracted foreign investment to accelerate its economic growth to where its GDP is much higher today than India. Yet in 2023 India starting from behind has some advantages. In the case of clean drinking water, limiting contamination of the rivers with effective regulation of industries which was missing in China, and providing clean drinking water with newer technological means is one of these advantages. Indian investment comes with the technology of the 2020's compared to China's investment using technology from the 2000 period. This will create additional gains in GDP and quality of GDP in its challenge of matching and exceeding growth in China. ...

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The drop in the value of the Turkish currency, the lira, hits ordinary Turks as it pushes up the price of food, medicine and other essentials. The lira has dropped by over a third of its value against the dollar in 2021. This is leading to a decline in living standards in Turkey, says this report in WSJ. President Erdogan is pushing an unconventional strategy to increase growth, by having the central bank cut interest rates as the value of lira drops sharply. This could lead to further drops in the lira making it difficult to make dollar debt repayments says this report in WSJ. The problem extends beyond drop in standard of living for average Turks. The country's banks are affected and companies that have borrowed heavily in US dollars and foreign currency denominated debt. A large mismatch between foreign currency debt such as dollar debt and the country's foreign exchange reserves has led to countries such as Argentina falling behind and seeking IMF assistance. WSJ points out that Turkey has about $160 billion in foreign exchange assets, and $280 billion in liabilities as of August 2021, according to the Turkish central bank. Bank lending in foreign currency is 24% to 45% of their total loans in the first half of 2021, according to Fitch Ratings. This could lead to dollar debt rollover difficulties as debt repayment comes due in April 2021. ...

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German chancellor Merkel says leaders today are stuck in their own digital echo chambers and not doing the diplomacy and bilateral communication needed. Lack of diplomacy is worse than during the Cold War, says Merkel. "We live in a world where lack of speech is more pronounced than during the Cold War." She was gravely concerned by the number of conversations she had with world leaders who rarely speak to each other, and who become inward looking even as the global economic links bring countries and regions closer. This is happening with the situation in Libya and Germany has convened a conference of world leaders including France, Russia and Turkey, and both sides in the war in Libya to talk about the essential steps for peaceful resolution. Germany wants to prevent any recurrence of the situation that resulted in refugees fleeing North Africa in 2015. What were the mistakes made during that crisis? Merkel says "The mistake was not to have paid attention to create an environment where people can stay in their own country."  Germany has no intention to let that mistake be repeated in Libya. The Berlin conference of world leaders shows Germany is serious, and is getting world leaders Putin of Russia, Macron of France, Erdogan of Turkey, together with Mr. Trump's representative Pompeo of the U.S. to prevent any recurrence. ...

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A conflict is developing between Britain and the European Union over vaccine supplies as both sides try to get access to limited supplies. Britain and the US have moved ahead with their vaccination drives, causing alarm in Europe as Germany, France, member states of the EU lag behind. The problem comes from the delay in approving the vaccine by Astra Zeneca and Oxford University by the European Union. European Union prestige is at stake because its slower process of approving vaccine has led to a delay of 1 month in approving the Astra Zeneca vaccine. The Oxford vaccine is only now approved in Europe. Other problems have emerged. Astra Zeneca has announced that its vaccines made in Britain are now running short of supply and it can only provide 39 million doses to the EU instead of the 80 million originally arranged by EU. Soon after this announcement Pfizer said its factory in Puurs, Belgium, near Antwerp, is running into production issues. This would reduce supplies to the EU.  The EU has responded to this situation by saying it was being treated unfairly by Astra Zeneca. In response it has introduced new paperwork that would limit supply of Pfizer vaccines to Britain from the Belgian plant. Other countries are watching this situation with dismay as richer countries are fighting for the vaccine supplies. ...

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With vaccine hesitancy in the US the goal of vaccinating a large part of the US population is still elusive. Less than half of the US population is fully vaccinated as of July 30. The vaccination rates in the US are now much slower than India even taking into account the population difference. The vaccination in India is at the rate of 4 to 5 million a day for the past week in India. In the US this report in The Guardian shows 4.7 million vaccinated in the past 2 weeks. On July 30 856,000 people were vaccinated in the US compared to over 5 million in India.  Newspaper reporting that encourages vaccine hesitancy people to delay getting vaccinated because of poorly reported headlines is adding to vaccine hesitancy in the US. This has led to much frustration at the White House. The threat of the Delta variant is making more people to take vaccination. Southern states are seeing a jump in vaccinations. Many prominent Republicans are now endorsing vaccination.  One of the problems in tackling the Delta variant is the confusing nature of the CDC guidance on masks. On May 13 CDC issued guidance saying masks were not necessary indoors and outdoors. Now 3 months later in July the CDC says the threat of Delta variant means mask wearing is essential particularly indoors because of the higher transmissibility of the delta variant.  ...

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A new state government in Bihar state, India, takes shape with Nitish Kumar as Chief Minister and 2 Deputy CM's from the BJP party. Bihar is the second largest state in India after Uttar Pradesh, with Maharashtra the third, West Bengal fourth making up the top four by population each with over 100 million people. Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat make up the top 7 states each of these three with about 75 million population. Rapid economic development depends on state governments working with the federal government on investment, technologies and effective governance. Gujarat and Maharashtra form an industrial core for India with investment increasing in Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh which forms the rural interior in the Ganges plains. In contrast to China where industrial development is state driven led by the CCP in a centralized form embedded in the complete authority of the central government, India has to achieve this through the democratic process based on delivery of infrastructure projects and standards of living. Much of this depends on the combined effort of federal and state governments ,with seven of these eight states having this coordinated effort in 2024, at a time when foreign investment in the economy is increasing rapidly to diversify global supply chains. This provides an opportunity for India to change from a developing economy to an advanced industrial economy in stages by 2030 and 2040. ...

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Speaking at the Brookings Institution Biden senior adviser Jake Sullivan laid out the "foreign policy of America's middle class." What he means by this is "President Biden's core commitment- indeed his daily direction to us- to more deeply integrate domestic policy with foreign policy." "After the Second War the United States led a fragmented world to create a new international economic order. It lifted hundreds of millions out of poverty. It sustained thrilling technological revolutions. And it helped the United States and many other nations around the world achieve new levels of prosperity. But the last few decades revealed cracks in these foundations. A shifting global economy left many Americans and their communities behind. A financial crisis shook the middle class. A pandemic exposed the fragility of our supply chains. A changing climate threatened lives and livelihoods. Russia's invasion of Ukraine underscored the risks of overdependence. So this moment demands we forge a new consensus." "When president Biden took office the coutnry from our perspective faced four fundamental challenges. First America's industrial base had been hollowed out. Second economic integration with a large non-market economy did not work out. Third, an accelerating climate crisis, and the urgent need for a just and efficient energy transition. Finally we met the challenge of inequality and its damage to democracy."   ...