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This excellent article by Peta Bee looks at how we can do anti-ageing efforts to keep our immune systems strong as we become older. She looks at work by an expert in immune cell biology, Janet Lord, who is head of the Institute for Inflammation and Ageing at Birmingham University. It is now proven that the link between ageing and immune systems can be guided in constructive ways. At sixty and seventy years age one can have the immune system of a 30 year old by doing a couple of simple things which are covered here from taking 10,000 steps a day, high intensity interval training on some days each month, occasional fasting on some days, high fibre diet and vitamin D. Walking, running or other forms of exercize affect a particular form of immune function called neutrophil movement in positive ways. Neutrophil movement because these cells are the main defense against the forms of bacteria that cause pneumonia. Neutrophils in older adults behaved in ways similar to that found in 30 year olds when doing 10,000 steps a day of exercize. Dr. Lord and other researchers have found. Dr. Jenna Macciochi, a lecturer in immunology at the University of Sussex, says about 70% of our immune system resides in our gut, making gut health very important for our immunity. Macciochi is the author of Immunity: The Science of Staying Well. Important for gut or gastrointestinal health is the eating of food that has prebiotic and probiotic effect. This helps reverse the decline of immunity coming with ageing.When we chew down on fibre in vegetables, fruit, beans or lentils we have beneficial byproducts called postbiotics that act as an interface between diet and immunity, that change the personalities of cells and circulate in our blood for regulation of immune system, says Dr. Macciochi. Postbiotics from eating dietary fibre tune up specific virus fighting cells that help us fight infections from flu and viruses, studies show says this report in The Times. Women in the UK get only 17g per day, men 20 mg per day of fibre. We need 30 mg per day of fibre and to do this we need to increase our intake of vegetables, fruits, whole grains, nuts, seeds and pulses. Also important is avoiding the inflammation that comes with ageing called inflammageing, says Dr. Macciochi. To do this do resistance training, weights, or using body weight such as lunges, push ups, squats. When our muscles move we produce hormones called myokines that help our immune cells function and keep inflammation down. She believes strength work is an absolute essential to rejuvenate our immune age. ...

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In his second part of the series on Capitalism and Globalization Schieritz says Trump's arguments have backing, and goes back to the studies done by David Autor of MIT on the adverse impact of free trade on communities across the U.S.. Lyrarc has covered this issue since 2006, and the reality is that this issue was brought up long before the Autor study gained prominence. On Nov. 12, 2010 Robert Lighthizer, Deputy Trade Representative under U.S. president Reagan wrote an op-ed in the NYT titled "Throwing Free Trade Overboard," that made a strident and strong case for what Trump says 5 years later, and from no less than a top trade official under Repubican Reagan.Trump comes late to this in 2015 when it was already amply clear what was happening. It is not so much Trump having discerned this, than others who should have paid attention, including Lew and leaders in both parties, and the business community,  who for too long ignored it. Or as Hilsenrath in a recent WSJ report says, simply said we have seen this before with Japan's entry into the American market, not realizing the speed and widespread impact of the changes in trade with China, that are unprecedented in history- evident just from the great speed of urbanization and manufacturing work force growth in China, policy rapidly impacting vulnerable communities across the U.S. The corrective course has to be credible which is why it has to come from a a reawakening among leaders such as May, Merkel and Clinton, who are keen students of change, and capable of designing and executing a corrective course of action, and winning the popular support and patience needed to stay the course which could run for most of the next decade. It would also provide leadership and show the way for societies in Brazil, China, India and other countries facing similar problems.     ...

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U.S. president Obama's passive response in the handling of the NSA spying on the phones of world leaders including the president of Brazil and the chancellor of Germany comes under criticism in the U.S. The failure to provide adequate assurance- and take immediate action since the summer of 2013 when the first revelations of NSA spying were out- to regain trust of European and other leaders is seen as a weakness in leadership. With German presidential elections approaching German chancellor Merkel actually tried to tone down the initial uproar over NSA spying revelations in the summer of 2013. It was only after it was revealed in October 2013 that NSA had monitored Merkel's mobile phone did the chancellor make an issue of this and Obama could not respond to why no action had been taken since the summer and a complete review of NSA spy activities made by the President and advisors. Because world leaders are involved, and not just of allies but large emerging market nations such as Brazil, this becomes the personal responsibility of the U.S. president. Obama also comes under criticism for not responding to the failure of the healthcare website. This matter is of a different nature and could be handled by the President's Health and Human Services Secretary, Ms. Sibelius....

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Mark Leibovich gives a detailed account of David Plouffe, one of President Obama's close political advisors, who has Obama's confidence on campaign and political issues. Leibovich says Mr. Obama has always been attracted to people who are loyal and act as fixers. He cites the film "The Godfather" as Obama's favorite movie, and Plouffe as the unyielding cop in a mob film "The Departed." Characteristics of Plouffe described by colleagues are extreme competitiveness, extremely unsentimental, extremely data driven. In a way the President's closest advisors offer clues to the nature of the President's style, approach to politics, and the conduct of the U.S. presidential office during this Presidency, as in others. Plouffe is described by colleagues as most in sync with Mr. Obama. And William Daley, the president's former chief of staff, says the Plouffe and Obama relationship is extremely private- using 6 very's to accent this. Issues relating to the shrinking middle class are coming to the fore in this election. A friend of Plouffe's, Steve Elmendorf, describes him by saying that he isn't sure whether Plouffe has any convictions about the middle class, its mostly a passion for winning and putting together the outfit to do this. For the bigger vision things Plouffe's colleague, David Axelrod, another campaign advisor has put together the themes and lofty phrases that President Obama has supported. The sense given by Mark Leibovich is of some wonderfully good packaging with a steely attitude. ...

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Brett Arends cites several factors for his skepticism about the 4th quarter 2010 US stock market rally. Cyclically adjusted price to earnings ratios that are 75% above their average value. A market value for US equities excluding financial stocks, that is within 15% of the October 2007 peak. Fed data that shows nonfinancial corporations have debt of $7.4 trillion at the end of the third quarter 2010, an increase of $250 billion in one year, and up from $5.5 trillion in 2005. This Fed data shows the debt for nonfinancial US corporations is 58% of their net worth, up from 41% five years ago. US consumers are still have the kind of debt burdens they had in 2008, with US households having reduced their debt by only about 3.5%. Arends says the leveraging is through the roof when you add up the debt that government and corporations have run up. Total debt has risen to $36 trillion, up 15% from the fall of 2007. He cites other experts who were right for the last decade who are skeptical this time- Rosenberg at Gluskin Sheff, Albert Edwards at S.G. Securities, John Hussman at Hussman Funds. The latest analysis by Jeremy Grantham at GMO is that large cap US stocks are not likely to beat inflation by much over the next 7 years. Arends has not mentioned global risk indicators such as the asset price bubbles developing in emerging markets, and the sovereign debt restructuring needed in debt burdened countries of the European Union. Analysis by the Economist in year-end 2010 points to the diverging directions of austerity in Europe, spending in the US and asset price bubbles in emerging markets, as a disturbing sign for 2011-2012. Risks in the US that Arends has not mentioned include problems in housing. Nouriel Roubini sees problems in housing in 2011. ...

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Germany went through a period of stagnant growth and persistently high unemployment leading to reforms of the welfare system and entitlements under the Schroeder administration. The reforms led to lower unemployment benefits and an effort to get the unemployed take up jobs. Instead of unemployment benefits that amounted to half the salary indefinitely, unemployment benefits ended in 12 months under the reforms, and workers were forced to take up jobs or dig into their savings. The cuts to benefits led to more of the unemployed taking jobs that were not their first choice with lower incomes. Unions agreed to defer wage demands and wages remained relatively flat for a long period. The "kurzarbeit" system of government subsidizing employers to retain workers during economic downturns, helped cushion the workforce from ups and downs in the economy. Unemployment which was in double digits a decade ago, is now 6.1%. The system still preserved some other aspects of generous benefits- parental leave of 14 months at two-thirds salary, vacation time and publicly sponsored health insurance. Recent changes include raising the retirement age to 67 from 65. The Organization of Economc Cooperation and Development estimates that the 200,000 jobs saved in Germany during the recession of 2008-2009 cost the government $7 billion. Government funds helped companies retain workers by paying a portion of worker salaries and averting layoffs.This comes to $35,000 per job. Compare this with the $38.9 billion allocated to a loan program at the Energy Department under the U.S. stimulus. 8050 jobs were created under this program according to the Washington Post- for the money spent so far in Sept 2011- 2 years into the loan program, of $19.3 billion. This comes to $2.4 million in government guaranteed loans per job. The Energy Department says that 33,000 jobs were saved under the $5.9 billion that was given to the auto industry under this program for investments in manufacturing to improve fuel efficiency. This comes to $178,000 per job. The Energy Department and Congress estimated a 5%-10% loss on the $38.6 billion loan program for loans that go sour, such as the Solyndra solar company $535 million loan. This comes to $1.9 billion at 5% loss and $3.8 billion for a 10% loss. The purpose of these figures is to show the cost of programs when the programs fail to achieve job goals or produce too little for the investment. The $3.8 billion loss under the program is over half the $7 billon Germany invested for the 200,000 jobs saved as estimated by the OECD. That ranks as a far superior investment than the Energy Department program. For the U.S. there are aspects of German reforms such as "kurzarbeit" that bear emulation, with serious questions about the effective use of the U.S. stimulus funds. For the rest of Europe the stingier unemployment benefits, raising the retirement age to 67, and other reforms send a different message. From the average German the message is: we made the tough changes, the rest of Europe cannot expect Germans to pay higher taxes while they put off similiar changes. Italy needs to change its retirement age, just as the Germans have done. As Chancellor Merkel puts it: "People in countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal shouldn't be able to retire earlier than in Germany. It's important for everybody to put in effort to make it roughly equal. Germany will only help when others really make an effort." Which is why Greece, Spain, Italy, even France are faced with making serious changes. This isn't stalling when it comes to euro bonds, from the German perspective. And it isn't about the lack of committment to the idea of a European Union, as all major political parties in Germany, the CDP, the SDP and the Greens, all strongly support the idea of a European Union. ...

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Greg Ip of the WSJ provides this exceptional report offering readers remarkable clarity on what the Republican Tax Law does- its high and low points.  High Points 1. It reduces the corporate tax rate to bring it in line with other advanced industrialized countries. The corporate tax rate in Germany and Japan is 30%, in the UK it is 19%. For 5 years businesses can write off capital equipment immediately instead of depreciating over a couple of years. This could boost investment and growth. 2.  The law takes aim at deductions that led to distortions. It limits the mortgage interest deduction, and caps the deduction for state and local taxes. This removes the incentive to pay more for homes that exacerbated the housing crisis in 2008. The Alternative Minimum Tax is largely removed. The Low Points 1. The biggest drawback is that lawmakers did not properly fund the tax cuts. Of the 10 costliest tax breaks nine were not touched, including employer health insurance, retirement savings, capital gains. Only the state and local taxes deduction was reduced. And a new tax deduction  was created, a 20% tax deduction for small business (proprietors and partnerships) paying taxes on their individual tax returns. Taxes on the wealthy or value added taxes, reducing tax breaks, is how other advanced industrialized countries paid for the corporate tax cuts, but did not happen here. Additional economic growth  to generate added tax revenues is the way Republicans in Congress say this is funded. Yet this is a questionable assumption as Britain reduced the corporate tax rate to 19% without seeing a surge in economic growth, as Greg Ip pointed out in an earlier WSJ article. At best the Joint Committee on Taxation estimates $500 billion over a decade in added revenues from added growth leaving $1 trillion to be added to the deficit. The WhartonPenn Budget Model (WPBM) estimates only $140 to $367 bill from the additional economic growth resulting in added tax revenues. Under this model only 0.03 to 0.08 percent added U.S. economic growth per year is expected from the Republican Tax Cuts. Such a situation would be bad  for the U.S. as the gradual improvement in Debt to GDP ratio to 78% following the financial crisis of 2008 would be sharply reversed taking the ratio to 97% by 2027. An unsustainable trajectory which will require tax increases in a few years and hurt investment in education, health and infrastructure into the future. This is what worries many experts most on both sides of the political spectrum today about what the Republican Congress has pushed through for a legislative "victory." This is why experts believe this is not serious tax reform and will require a new effort after 2019.   ...

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The latest version of the Galaxy smartphones is the Galaxy Note 8, which replaces the Galaxy Note 7. The Galaxy Note 7 had fire prone batteries which led to a costly recall costing about $6.5 billion. The Galaxy 8 has an "infinity" display that covers the entire front of the phone, for 6.3 inches. It has a dual lens camera and other features to match the iPhone 7. The Galaxy Note 8 effort was led by mobile chief D.J. Koh, who told his engineers not to hesitate in pushing the frontiers of technology, pointing out that Samsung could compete only if it was not afraid to innovate. Actions taken by Koh to prevent quality failures include signing 3 years instead of 1 year contracts with suppliers. The crisis with the Galaxy Note 7 forced Samsung to have its teams work with closer coordination. Samsung's sales have increased with the 6% increase in the market in the second quarter. Samsung had 22% of total shipments, compared to Apple's 11%, and Huawei Technologies 11%, according to Strategy Analytics. Samsung had 20 million shipments of Galaxy S8 and the S8+ since April 2017. In the U.S. Samsung continues to lose share to Apple. Yet overall Samsung has made a strong recovery. ...

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The unemployment rate of 5.9% in the US in June 2021 is still higher than the pre-pandemic rate of 3.5%. It is also different in other ways that are not so apparent. There are 9 million Americans looking for jobs. They are also looking for jobs outside industries that were hit hard during the pandemic, or pursuing better jobs with less commute and more remote work, and jobs outside of warehousing which requires less of the skills and training they have or in remote locations far from where they live. Economists like to use terms such as "mismatch" to describe this as in this report in WSJ. This does not bring home to us the enormous human toll of the pandemic. A recent survey of US workers for April by the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas found that 31% of people do not want to return to their old jobs up from 20% in July 2020. One in three from one in five last year are looking for something different than the the jobs that were hit hard in each successive wave of the coronavirus pandemic. Other surveys have found that 70% of workers who last worked for the leisure and hospitality industries are looking for something in a different industry. Leisure and hospitality that includes restaurants and hotels, airports, were hammered in this pandemic. And 55% of job applicants in one survey were found to be looking for remote work. Economists also see the macroeconomy in terms of supply and demand for labor, in terms of interest rates with low interest rates as a way to tackle unemployment, yet this has limited value in real life situations in the economy when it is affected by a number of factors, including some unusual factors such as the pandemic and man made events such as the global financial crisis of 2009 from banking missteps. The federal government has to take steps of its own to support Americans as these changes take place in the economic situation and Americans are in need of help with adjustments. ...

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Sadanand Dhume in WSJ reflects opinion in the US that is wary of handout politics that has been carried to an extreme in India's election. In Venezuela the bad turn for the oil rich economy was when Chavez's successor Maduro ignorant of the problems it would create decided to give oil at almost no cost to all Venezuelans. In India the leading opposition party offered $1 lakh rupees to every woman in the state of Uttar Pradesh. India's federal government under Modi has given free food to about 800 million people and renewed the pledge this year because of the pandemic's devastating the rural economy- about 60% of India is still rural. This is essential for India to advance to build a broad based growth model for India similar to China 1990-2010 and Japan 1890-1915 and 1950-1970 during the transformation of their economies, similar also to the US under FDR/Truman/Eisenhower/Kennedy 1940-1965.  Clean environments Swacch Bharat was essential for basic sanitation and toilets to reduce health risks, cooking gas to shift rural women from firewood and health risks, direct deposit bank accounts for 300 million rural households essential to eliminate leakages, solar energy is planned to cut energy cost  This has brought and will bring the level of income and consumption power of the lower and middle classes to create a 500 million strong consumer base for industry. It is a carefully planned effort based on the success in states such as Gujarat, and looking at the way this was done in China and the US for learning lessons. It is not a reckless effort to win votes such as the offer of 1 lakh rupees to every woman in Uttar Pradesh state with no plan for industrialization and modernization of the Indian economy to make it the third largest ahead of the EU by 2035. Dhume is right to point this out and it is apparent to any outsider who looks at Sab Ka Vikas Sab Ke Saath- prosperity for all, including all parts of society irrespective of caste and religion.  ...

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Vietnam rail link to Kunming China will cost $8 billion for Vietnam section in 2025. Vietnam is building 3 new rail lines in places where the old French railways built rail lines. The project has Chinese concessional loans. 45 agreements for cooperation were signed during Xi's visit to Hanoi. Xi also visited the memorial to Ho Chi Minh in Hanoi. Vietnam is practicing a delicate balancing act between negotiations with the US and cooperation with China.

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Much of inflation's rise in the US has been transitory after all, says Greg Ip in the WSJ, yet credit Jay Powell at the Fed for his resolute fight against inflation. Gasoline that was over $5.00 a gallon in June when inflation was at 9.1% following Russia's Ukraine war is now $3.27 according to AAA, and this is an important reason why inflation is at 6.5% in December 2023. Demand for autos after pandemic and lockdowns coupled with supply chain problems caused auto prices and used car prices to rise sharply. This is now reversing with price declines. Ultra low interest rates caused a jump in home prices- this is reversing with Jay Powell and the Fed increasing interest rates sharply.

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American cartoonist Charles Schulz and his creations Charlie Brown and Snoopy. Schulz says he drew children because that is what editors liked.

In a 1977 BBC interview Schulz says-

"I'm talking only about the minor everyday problems in life. Leo Tolstoy dealt with the major problems of the world. I'm only dealing with why we all have the feeling that people don't like us."  

Charles Schulz drew every cartoon himself from 1950 to 2000.

He says he described the human condition. He once said- "I am dealing with love and hate, mistrust and fear and insecurity."

The cartoon strip was put in 2600 newspapers worldwide.

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US antiship missiles Nmesis are placed in the Philippines islands to protect parts of the Pacific region in 2025. During the period of US engaged in wars in the Middle East under Bush and then Obama, the US Navy lost time and China built up its Navy. The lack of foresight of US business and focus on profits of firms like Apple shipping manufacturing to China meant loss of the manufacturing knowhow as other companies followed Apple for 2 decades. The result is that it takes long lead times for the US to build the ships the US Navy needs, a repeat of the situation the US faced with Japan by 1935 when the US was focused on tackling the Great Depression under FDR. At that time at a Naval Conference in London in 1934 the Japanese walked out rejecting the Washington Naval Agreement of 1924-25 that limited Japan to 60% of the US and British Navies ships tonnage. By 1941 the Japanese Navy was its main reason for its efforts to control Asia. FDR who had been Secretary of the Navy was not far behind so that America launched its own efforts in 1937- in an 18 month period 1942-1943 the US destroyed the Japanese Navy and protected China, India, from the worst Japanese Kwantung army elements that ran the government leading to 14 million lives lost in China. ...

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The story of a company and its founder in Seattle who realized that $40,000 a year is not much to make a decent living in Seattle- that people had to work 2 jobs. In the process hurting the productivity at the company, with employees putting in less of the kind of energy and motivated work that helps companies grow. The founder decides to cut back on his own expenses and extravagant lifestyle to make sure his employees are paid a decent wage. He did the math and decided on $70,000 Five years later sales of the company have doubled. It is a payments company and the payments processed at Gravity doubled from $3.8 billion a year to $10.2 billion. The number employees have doubled. For employee productivity it mattered that they were not doing 2 jobs and worrying about credit card debt. Now 70% of employees have paid off debt. The amount of money they put into pension funds has doubled. And instead of 1% about 10% own their own homes. This suggests the old culture was bad for the economy as well as employees. More housing demand, more homes built, more cars sold, more money for pension funds to manage, all translate into a better performing economy and economic growth. Simply stated the old culture has put an artificial ceiling on economic growth and worse set a low bar fro productivity in companies. Healthier employees who could spend the time doing second jobs doing exercize instead and staying fit would also bring down the money spent on healthcare.  Ultimately it us about good common sense, and honest thinking about what works and does not work. The old culture simply fails good common sense. ...

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DW.com sees the choice of Timothy Kaine for Democratic vice presidential nominee as a safe choice, with no effort to mobilize the base activated by Bernie Sanders using a choice from that segment of the party. Both Hillary Clinton and Timothy Kaine come from the moderate wing of the party. This is likely to help Hillary Clinton in the swing state of Virginia. Kaine's choice may also be a way to balance the more serious Clinton with the sunnier disposition and campaigning energy of Kaine. To bring a different set of campaigning skills from Kaine- conveying a positive message for Democrats on how they could help the middle and working class, and appeal to independent undecided voters.

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Stephen Castle of the NYT gives an objective look at Andy Burnham of the Greater Manchester area and Labour party leader. Burnham has said that Britain has been on the wrong path for 40 years and had the courage to prove this by leaving London for his home region of Greater Manchester in the North of England, after serving as chief secretary of The Treasury and Labour minister under Gordon Brown around the time of the financial crisis of 2009. After winning in Greater Manchester he served as Mayor of this important region of Britain second only to London in importance, which after the fall of the British Empire, has led to politics focusing entirely on London. His term as Mayor involved getting transportation out of the hands of the private companies and having the government run it efficiently for the people of Manchester. His term is viewed favorably for improving the economy of the region. Compared to the people Britain has turned out previously- Thatcher, Blair,  Brown, Cameron, Starmer, he has genuine experience running a region and tackling tough problems, which none of the other leaders had, that comes from his hard work for the people of Greater Manchester as head of the local government. He has the skills to bring people together around his vision for the Labour party, similar to that brought by Clement Attlee. At Lyrarc we looked at what  Britannica Encylopedia has to say about Attlee and found that Attlee spent his first 15 years in the difficult working class district of East London, similar to what Burnham has done by moving back to his home region in the north and quietly working to understand the people, their aspirations and how to make them come true. Attlee did this in 1945-51 (setting up the National Health Service NHS and Bank of England, other revered institutions) the way Franklin Roosevelt did in the 1930's to establish the modernization of New York government that he later applied to 51 states as president. This is the kind of task similar to Attlee and FDR that Burnham has the potential to accomplish for Britain. Like Attlee Burnham is self effacing with little sense of wanting public recognition, comfortable with who he is and where he is from. Like Attlee staying away from Ramsay MacDonald's Labour government in 1931, when it failed to find a clear path ahead for Britain, (Burnham concentrated on Manchester away from London), and decided to forge his own way forward with new ideas and being creative- as it was under Attlee that the British Empire was converted into the British Commonwealth of Nations. An enormous feat that has not been fully grasped and will one day be seen as an amazing achievement of the 20th century- India independent and  creating a modernized state the size of the US, European Union or China by 2040/2047. This is our assessment at Lyrarc of the potential Burnham could have for Britain- and possibly for the world again like Clement Attlee in 1945-1951. ...

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The UN deputy special representative for Afghanistan, Peter Galbraith- and the highest American official there who was also an advisor to Richard Holbrooke, the US representative for South Asia- resigned over differences with his Norwegian boss the Un Representative over the Afghan elections. The issue was whether to take a softer stand on the elections or to confront the Karzai government with evidence of fraud in the elections.

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Argentina's government of president Alberto Fernandes is making a state takeover of Vicentin, a soyabean exporter which filed for bankruptcy in 2019 and is in ongoing court proceedings. Mr. Fernandes says he is doing this to rescue the century old agricultural firm to protect Vicentin workers, and 2600 farmers who sell crops to the company. Vicentin is Argentina's top exporter of soy meal and soy cooking oil. Mr. Fernandez says the company is a very important asset for the entire Argentine economy. Argentina's farm exports are its main source of earnings in dollars.  A drought in Argentina's farm sector in April 2018 led to a drop in export revenues and worsened Argentina's financial position leading to the 2020 default on Argentine debt. In 2018 the farm sector lost a third of its crop value and 1.5% of GDP. Growth in 2017 was 3% but declined to 1% in 2018. A number of other factors including overborrowing using dollar denominated debt led to the economic crisis in 2020 right in the middle of the pandemic in May 2020. Fernandez is a moderate compared to the previous Kirchner administrations and was elected in 2019 to get Argentina out of the debt crisis after confidence in president Mauricio Macri declined. Fernandez has tackled the coronavirus crisis with an early lockdown compared to neighboring Brazil which has not taken decisive action making Brazil the second largest after the U.S. in cases. This gives Argentina some room to tackle the debt crisis and negotiations with the IMF, lenders. ...

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The US needs good manufacturing jobs for the jobs and income that it brings into communities, and also because of the tax revenues from the companies making products in America that provide the basis for local governments to provide good public services in healthcare, education, and transportation. To say comparitive advantage that helped first Japanese and now Chinese manufacturers is real and how society gains is to deny some basic facts that are self evident from observation that contradict textbook ideas in economics. Comparitive Advantage is a textbook economics concept that says countries are proficient in what they make best and should specialize in that product. But it is a static concept that exists only in textbooks. If Japan in 1960, China in 1980 and India in 2000 were each presented with this idea they would have turned down the idea of making steel and remained makers of lower end products such as footwear and textiles. If Japan in 1980, China in 2000, and India in 2020 were each presented with this idea they would have turned down the idea of making semiconductors and remained makers of lower end products such as steel. A senior vice president of US Steel in the late 1960's even told this writer a graduate student at Northwestern in Chicago- as the US can make steel better than India or China let us keep making it for you. He and much of the business faculty at Northwestern also could not understand in 1970 why Airbus was being setup to compete with Boeing who by the concept of comparitive advantage should have had the whole market to itself for commercial aircraft . By this kind of thinking Airbus would not exist today because it did not have the lowest cost or the manufacturing technologies Boeing had through its vast manufacturing operation. America would be still the only one making aircraft in 2023 if textbook concepts ruled the day. By indirect methods such as hidden preferential arrangements, provision of inputs such as land, capital and labor, tax relief, the costs can be represented in a way that shows it is cheaper to manufacture overseas. The lack of a level playing field is what president Biden is correcting by doing what first Japan, then South Korea, then China and now India are doing since the 1960's. By 1974 in four years after its founding in 1970 Airbus came up with its first model the A-300 using advanced technologies. America will regain its leadership in the cost and manufacturing of many products through Biden policy and the efforts of American companies by 2030, and do this in a transformative way that will benefit the world as a whole.  It is an enormous error to say the US does not need good manufacturing jobs, that local governments do not need the tax revenues from manufacturing plants to build services for communities where manufacturing workers live, and the US does not need the manufacturing experience curve that leads to reduced costs. It is this loss of the manufacturing experience curve that is the most vital aspect for understanding the need for the US government to compete effectively with the governments of Asian countries to keep manufacturing healthy and strong at home. Economics experts ignorant of how important this science and engineering principle is fail to grasp this. Related to this is the idea of a virtuous cycle in manufacturing- whoever braves the hard years of moving up the learning and experience curve gets rewarded because once that country has mastered that skill it gets better an better as the technology advances- making it harder and harder to prevent a new monopoly in manufacturing by the country (Japan, China or Taiwan) that had the highest costs and the least advantage ten or 20 years earlier but just persevered through it all with the government's help to gain cost competitiveness. This part does not make it into the economics textbooks which are mostly theory and much of it outdated by the time they are written. Observation is the best teacher and guide as it is in science, to guide policy and action. Obsessive attachment to theory that ignores observation becomes the enemy of progress. Comparitive advantage is one concept that needs to be retired even from the textbooks. Overseas manufacturing then is a piece of the overall picture that fits into what is good for the US. Macroeconomic principles determine microeconomic outcomes as opposed to microeconomic principles with companies out on their own being forced to compete without a level playing field, or handing out technology for special status in a recipient country as some do putting the US at a macroeconomic disadvantage. This is also healthy for the recipient country overseas, as recrimination with loss of manufacturing jobs in the US inevitably leads to the kind of recrimination that does not serve either country well as in the case of China today, and worse still can lead to conflict, even war. After the egregious situation of loss of manufacturing communities across the US leading to destabilizing the social fabric, it is hard to see such thinking prevail about the US not needing manufacturing as a vital part of its social fabric and industrial strength. China, it can be said, would have developed, and developed well over the past two decades without overconcentration of US and EU manufacturing in China. Without aggravating the problems of climate change and contamination of air, land and water, and destabilizing the social fabric in the US hurting workers and communities across the US, if macroeconomic policy was made to manage this process in the US government without it being left entirely to individual companies to decide. Instead China faces today a difficult situation through events such as destabilizing the social fabric in the US (the Trump tariffs), advanced economies in G-7 resistance to sharing of technologies, the damage to its environment from microeconomic locally determined policy at individual companies, and the global effects of climate change from climate unsustainable levels of growth since 2000.  ...

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In a first at Davos World Economic Forum, China's president Xi Jinping uses the 2017 meeting to give a one hour long spirited defense of the world trading system, critical of U.S. president elect Trump's protectionist views without naming him. Xi pointed out that "no one will be winners in a trade war." And went on to add that restricting world trade was like "locking oneself in a dark room, keeping out wind and rain from outside but also light and air." For the first time Jinping stated that China would take the U.S. role of defending the world trading system from attack as needed. On climate change Xi defended the Paris accords, and gave China's commitment to pursue changes regardless of what the U.S. under president Trump does. This follows Chancellor Merkel of Germany's statements on the issue critical of the views of president elect Trump, and taking the lead to defend the world trading system. Xi also pointed out that many of the ills that led to voter discontent in the West were not really from the freeing up of trade but from the pursuit of excessive profit with the financial crisis of 2008.   ...

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Tourism is boosting the economies of southern Europe. The tourist economy is ultra competitive in places such as Lisbon and Madrid because the  debt crisis of Spain, Portugal, Greece has led to devaluing their currencies with the US dollar. There are more American tourists in Portugal than Spanish tourists who are attracted by lower cost vacations. Europe now generates $500 million dollars from tourism one third of total tourist dollars worldwide. Portugal's economy is growing at 8%. This WSJ report looks at tourism in Portugal. It also raises questions about Southern Europe's overdependence on tourism industry which is cyclical.